Seems like the guys that make the jump smoothly are the ones that absolutely light it up in AAA and force their way up. Casas is playing well, but I'm not sure I'd call it lighting it up (.834 OPS). For contrast, Devers had a 1.047 OPS in AAA right before he was called up (.819 OPS in first big league season). Betts had a .920 OPS in AAA right before he was called up (.812 OPS in first big league season). Bogaerts had an .822 OPS in AAA before his call up (.684 OPS in first big league season). And we've talked about the gap between AAA and MLB being bigger now than ever. I'd be a lot more confident about Casas being an immediate impact kind of guy, or even Hosmer+, if he showed more dominance for Worcester first.
Which is why I'd hold on to Hosmer at least through the winter. Wait until Casas forces the issue and Hosmer becomes redundant, then deal him. But not before.
Devers, Betts and Bogaerts are all RH while Casas is left handed. I have no proof to back this up but I always assumed lefties would have much bigger splits.
Casas vs R: .196 PA, .281/.378/.567, 27xbh/10HR, 27bb/33k. 13.8% BB%/16.8% K%. Also, no shift next year.
.945 OPS vs R in AAA. Is that not absolutely lighting it up? Especially when it comes with a 16.8% K%.
Last year vs R: 288 PA, .298/.424/.540, 26xbh/14 HR, 51bb/51k. 17.7% BB%/k%.
.964 OPS despite skipping A+ and missing 2020 due to covid. Also struck out less than 20% of the time.
That's 486 PA of .950+ OPS ball, 53 xbh, 24 HR, 78bb/84k over the last 2 years vs R. That's what I call lighting it up.
Casas has nothing left to learn in AAA. He's not going to how to learn to hit LHP in AAA because there just aren't enough PA to go around vs L... unless you want him in AAA until mid 2024 or so. How well does one want Casas to play exactly? Does he need to have an 1.100 OPS vs R to get a call up?
vs L in 2022: 66 PA, .200/.333/.255, 3xbh/0HR, 10bb/26k
vs L in 2021: 83 PA, .219/.289/.301, 4 xbh/1HR, 6bb/20k.
That's 149 PA of sub .600 OPS play and an ISO of <.065. 16bb/46k. 7 xbh, 1 HR. That's dreadful.
But what can you do? If you keep Casas at AAA too long, his skills vs RHP could deteriorate. He's not being challenged.
He has absolutely lit up vs R the last 2 years by any definition. His underlying numbers are great too.
Ben 10 had a .910 OPS before being called up, but only a .872 OPS in Portland. He skipped AAA all together. In 2016 at the MLB level, he had an OPS of .835, OPS+ of 118. He had pretty big splits but still hit lefties pretty well. Casas is hitting righties better though.