What does 2023 look like?

nvalvo

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If there is one guy in MLB, right now, who can train, mentor, coach Casas, it's Hosmer. Hosmer and Casas have a history together, train together, hell maybe they exchange Christmas cards too. IMO, Hosmer is invaluable to get Casas off on the right foot. Why are people in such a hurry to dump a cost controlled asset?
40-man spots will be at a premium this winter. Whatever his salary, a 33 year old 1 WAR 1B with little-to-no upside is not a lock to be worth one of those roster spots when we finally have a ton of promising young players who will need rostering. If we lose, say, Thaddeus Ward in the Rule 5 draft because we kept Hosmer on the roster, I'm going to be mad at Chaim and co.

But "who is likely to get claimed in Rule 5" is definitely the kind of inside baseball that the FO has a better read on that we do. I imagine they have some intern wargaming each team's roster machinations so they have some sense of when the Reds or Mariners or whoever might be likely to claim a middle reliever or fifth outfielder.
 

Yo La Tengo

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I think this “Top 50 per year” methodology you’re using is a slightly skewed way of looking at it. Correa has been pretty much fully healthy the last three baseball seasons (20-22), and over that time he’s the 19th-best position player by fWAR.
I think we lose something by combining those three seasons. Using fWAR, Correa has been ranked 71 (2022), 7 (2021), and 65 (2020). So, one excellent year and two where he was good but not great. Notably, the two prior years he was injured. Which is why I used the shorthand of "is Correa a top 50 player" because he's only managed to hit that mark once in the last five years and, as his defense declines, he is less and less likely to get back to that high level of play. I think offering a 10 year deal to a player with that 5 year track record is a big risk, with the very real possibility that Correa fails to reach his hoped for performance on the front end and therefore cannot offset the inevitable bad years on the backside of the deal.

As a comparison, Xander was ranked at 14 (2022), 28 (2021), and 43 (2020).

EDIT: Correa is ranked as the 14th, 4th, and 16th best shortstop over the last 3 years according to fWAR.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I know. This is a legitimately tough decision. You prob want to call up Casas, but don’t want to lose Hosmer. And when Kike and Ref get activated (which seems imminent) then you’ve got a Yolmer/Duran decision. So do you call up Duran on 9/1?

Which then gets back to your Q— what about a back up C or another pitcher. Interesting decisions and I wonder if their wild card standing on 9/1 plays a role in the decision.
I wish there were more roster spaces because there's Valdez too.

Regarding 2023: Valdez can probably rotate between DH/1b/2b/3b/LF if the bat is worth getting in the lineup. The large majority being at DH.

I'm also in the keep Hosmer around group but if Casas does well, move on from Hosmer quickly and replace him with Dalbec or someone else. I'm not sure the spot on the 40 man will matter this offseason.
 

Cesar Crespo

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40-man spots will be at a premium this winter. Whatever his salary, a 33 year old 1 WAR 1B with little-to-no upside is not a lock to be worth one of those roster spots when we finally have a ton of promising young players who will need rostering. If we lose, say, Thaddeus Ward in the Rule 5 draft because we kept Hosmer on the roster, I'm going to be mad at Chaim and co.

But "who is likely to get claimed in Rule 5" is definitely the kind of inside baseball that the FO has a better read on that we do. I imagine they have some intern wargaming each team's roster machinations so they have some sense of when the Reds or Mariners or whoever might be likely to claim a middle reliever or fifth outfielder.
I don't think this is going to be much of an issue. A lot of the players that need protecting are so far away that no other team will take them. Ward will be put on the 40. While Paulino and Gonzalez probably won't be.
 

jwbasham84

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Additionally, there is some hope that Chaim does a couple 3 for 1 type of deals with some of our prospects to bring in some controlled talent, like a Sean Murphy, or a SP or two.
 

johnlos

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40-man spots will be at a premium this winter. Whatever his salary, a 33 year old 1 WAR 1B with little-to-no upside is not a lock to be worth one of those roster spots when we finally have a ton of promising young players who will need rostering. If we lose, say, Thaddeus Ward in the Rule 5 draft because we kept Hosmer on the roster, I'm going to be mad at Chaim and co.

But "who is likely to get claimed in Rule 5" is definitely the kind of inside baseball that the FO has a better read on that we do. I imagine they have some intern wargaming each team's roster machinations so they have some sense of when the Reds or Mariners or whoever might be likely to claim a middle reliever or fifth outfielder.
I don't know anything about the guy but if we think Hosmer is worth 1 WAR I'd take that over a 25 year-old that's pitched <35 innings since 2019. I'm not sure Casas is above replacement level after OPS+ing 115 at AAA (he's still 22). Can Casas defend?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Also regarding Xander: At what point would he opt in? I'd guess at no point because he should be able to do better than $20 mil/year. But at what point will teams shy away from offering him multiple years with a pick attached?

If he finishes the year hitting .284/.355/.425, will he still get Trevor Story money? Is he in any danger of having to take a 1 year deal or a 1 year deal+ player options? According to bbref, he's having his best year defensively. Or on pace to, anyway. 0.6 dWAR. In 2015, it was 0.7 in 155 games.

Over his last 50 games: 209 PA, .265/.340/.378, .329 BAbip, 19bb/44k. 15 xbh/3 HR.

I think his power will rebound some as some of the doubles turn back into HRs, although maybe not this year. Some of the loss is real. Maybe the Sox will be able to lock him in at a pretty good price if he continues to have (IMO) unlucky Double/HR luck and is closer to his career average BAbip (.336) than this years (.369). I don't think 2018-2021 (.299/.371/.523, 134 OPS+) Xander is coming back, but he should be better than 2014-2017 (.283/.339/.409, 100 OPS+) Xander.

I think everyone here would be happy at 6/140 and the contact would have some chance to provide surplus value if you think the power recovers. He's always been a high BAbip guy so that should help him hit for average. He'd only have to put up an average of 2.6 WAR per year. Outside of 2020, he's failed to put up at least a 3.8 WAR only once since the start of 2015 He had 2.3 in 2017.

These are the types of contracts I'd be seeking out. Players around 29-30 years of age who will be seeking 5-6 year deals. We should have a pretty good idea how they will hold up the next 3 years or so, they come at a cheaper price tag and less dead end years. There is some risk involved but seems like far less. We don't have to predict how they'll be playing 7 years from now with 5 years left on their deal. Instead we have to worry how they are playing 4 years from now with 2 years left. There's also no risk of getting stuck with an albatross of a contract for 10-12 years at 30mil+ per. If Story doesn't work out, it sucks but it's 4-5 years at $23 mil per. On the same token, Story has been worth 2.1 WAR in 81 games. That's a 4.2 WAR pace over a full season. He only needs to average 2.6 to be a decent FA signing. Even if he just repeats this season 5 more times, it wasn't terrible value. One would have to imagine he'll play more than 81 games a year and hit better than .221 going forward though.

Seems like Xander would be a pretty good value buy at 6/140. Though if he were willing to take that contract, you'd think he'd already be signed. Maybe how he finishes the year will change the equation.
 

chawson

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This is not precisely directed at you Chawson, as you said you could see a role for Hosmer (at least initially.)

But the bolded argument puts me in mind of a thing called moral dumbfounding. It's when someone has an emotional opinion about a moral issue that's unshakeable. If you ask them what their actual reasoned objection to that moral issue is, they'll offer a reason. Yet if that reason is invalid (e.g., non-factual or non-universal), they, without blinking, will shift to a second reason. If the second reason is also invalid, they shift to a third. And so on. Deep into a fog of completely tenuous bullshit. Eventually they ground out with "Well, I don't know why X is wrong. But it just is."

Hosmer is basically proving to be that to a component of this board.


(Pendant alert: this pattern of reaction isn't limited to moral issues.)
Not trying to get into it too much, but I think this is somewhat backward. There’s a kind of superstition about Hosmer, widely held by some MLB lifers and otherwise Massarotti types, that he looks and feels the part. I see that as the unshakeable emotional opinion, as you have it. Over time, it's congealed into a kind of fantastical salve that mollifies people into believing Hosmer’s more productive than he is. To many, that comforting feeling becomes his defining attribute, obscuring the fact of how well he does the job.

I've tried here and here and here to load up as many facts as I can to challenge that superstition. Don't get me wrong: I get the trade. For the price we paid and considering our alternatives, Hosmer is an asset. He has a role this year, has trade value and guards against any further Casas injury. But his foremost utility to us is his ability to play first base. I’m not sure why we’d consider him a future asset if stripped of that feature.

I even have some measure of optimism about his bat. There is some evidence that he’s swinging harder, trading whiffs for power (and launch angle?), which may be a good trade-off for him. If you look his track record -- and his public stubbornness about it -- he's an underwhelming hitter who needs a tremendous amount of BABIP luck on ground balls (2013, 2015, 2017, April 2022) to be useful. An incredible two-thirds of his batted ball events from 2021-22 have been ground balls or infield pop-ups, which is tops in baseball.

Unless there’s an unprecedented overhaul to his batted ball profile at 33, nearly all of his value is still bound up in his position. If we displace him, say by making him the DH, we’ve removed one of his only real utilities for our team, and possibly blocked a guy like Valdez from getting MLB reps. I don’t know why we’d do that when there are plenty of alternatives available, and as nvalvo said, plenty of prospects worth adding to the 40-man.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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Additionally, there is some hope that Chaim does a couple 3 for 1 type of deals with some of our prospects to bring in some controlled talent, like a Sean Murphy, or a SP or two.
I think some people are overestimating the value of farm system depth. Unless the team is willing to move some of its top prospects, they aren't getting much in the way of cost controlled talent. If you want Sean Murphy, it's going to cost Triston Casas+, not a package around Bryan Mata and Thad Ward. It's possible you are fine with that but it kind of goes against "build from the farm" to trade a bunch of top guys for these types of talents. Trading for 2 of these types would gut the system of top tier talent and we'd be in the same place as before.

These are the players of note that will need to be placed on the 40/stay on the 40.
Winckowski, Seabold, Bello, Mata, Casas, Walter, Murphy, Rafaela, Valdez, Abreu, Downs, Paulino, Ward, German, W. Gonzalez, De La Rosa, Brainer, Gilberto, Koss, Song. Wong, Cordero.

If Casas is one of the 26, it leaves 22 players for 14 spots. So the 3 for 1 deals would have to come from the list above. So trading Mayer, Jordan and Rosier for Murphy wouldn't help any.

I dunno, maybe Bello, Walter and Rafaela would net a good return but it seems like it would be leaving 3 potential holes later on. I could see teams being interested in a bunch of these players I'm just not sure any of them would net anything of significance outside of Casas, Bello and maybe Rafaela.

it seems like the best use for minor league depth is for making trades at the deadline. Having a ton of 8-20 organizational types to trade while keeping the system in tact. Build a team, see what you got, and if its worth adding to, trade depth for rentals.
 

Rovin Romine

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Not trying to get into it too much, but I think this is somewhat backward. There’s a kind of superstition about Hosmer, widely held by some MLB lifers and otherwise Massarotti types.
They are not here. We are.

Nobody here (that I recall) is saying anything other than Hosmer is a passible but not great 1B defensively, has a bat that's pretty smiliar to Arroyo's, and fits nicely into a near-absolute black-hole in our current roster (1B). There may be a glimmer of potential upside to his hitting in Fenway, but he's likely plateaued or in the decline phase of his career. All that said, there's a chance he can be very useful to us.

But it seems like some folks really need to let us all know, again and again, that Hosmer is pretty much what everyone agrees he is. So at the risk of belaboring the point that some folks are belaboring the point: WE GET IT.
 

chawson

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But it seems like some folks really need to let us all know, again and again, that Hosmer is pretty much what everyone agrees he is. So at the risk of belaboring the point that some folks are belaboring the point: WE GET IT.
Sorry to inconvenience you, a noted unbelaborer of points. I was responding to your assertion above that he'd be a good primary DH in 2023, which deviates quite a bit from the common wisdom that he's an acceptable 1B for now.
 

Rovin Romine

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Sorry to inconvenience you, a noted unbelaborer of points. I was responding to your assertion above that he'd be a good primary DH in 2023, which deviates quite a bit from the common wisdom that he's an acceptable 1B for now.
I'm pretty sure I mentioned Hosmer holding the DH slot when looking at where the players we have under contract for 2023 would fit. . .and I probably also plugged Casas in at 1B and Arroyo in as a possible SS.

I'm also sure I specifically suggested Hosmer as a possible part-time DH against RHP with Casas at 1B - both hitting to their strong suit. Hosmer's production in that role would be reasonably expected to be again, not elite, but not an embarrassment either.

But I'd agree that the Sox can probably find a better option for a full-time DH than Hosmer (assuming that was his only role on the team - i.e., Casas was up and hitting with Dalbec or another player as a backup/first-year platoon partner.)
 

Cesar Crespo

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Seems like the guys that make the jump smoothly are the ones that absolutely light it up in AAA and force their way up. Casas is playing well, but I'm not sure I'd call it lighting it up (.834 OPS). For contrast, Devers had a 1.047 OPS in AAA right before he was called up (.819 OPS in first big league season). Betts had a .920 OPS in AAA right before he was called up (.812 OPS in first big league season). Bogaerts had an .822 OPS in AAA before his call up (.684 OPS in first big league season). And we've talked about the gap between AAA and MLB being bigger now than ever. I'd be a lot more confident about Casas being an immediate impact kind of guy, or even Hosmer+, if he showed more dominance for Worcester first.

Which is why I'd hold on to Hosmer at least through the winter. Wait until Casas forces the issue and Hosmer becomes redundant, then deal him. But not before.
Devers, Betts and Bogaerts are all RH while Casas is left handed. I have no proof to back this up but I always assumed lefties would have much bigger splits.


Casas vs R: .196 PA, .281/.378/.567, 27xbh/10HR, 27bb/33k. 13.8% BB%/16.8% K%. Also, no shift next year.

.945 OPS vs R in AAA. Is that not absolutely lighting it up? Especially when it comes with a 16.8% K%.

Last year vs R: 288 PA, .298/.424/.540, 26xbh/14 HR, 51bb/51k. 17.7% BB%/k%.

.964 OPS despite skipping A+ and missing 2020 due to covid. Also struck out less than 20% of the time.

That's 486 PA of .950+ OPS ball, 53 xbh, 24 HR, 78bb/84k over the last 2 years vs R. That's what I call lighting it up.

Casas has nothing left to learn in AAA. He's not going to how to learn to hit LHP in AAA because there just aren't enough PA to go around vs L... unless you want him in AAA until mid 2024 or so. How well does one want Casas to play exactly? Does he need to have an 1.100 OPS vs R to get a call up?

vs L in 2022: 66 PA, .200/.333/.255, 3xbh/0HR, 10bb/26k
vs L in 2021: 83 PA, .219/.289/.301, 4 xbh/1HR, 6bb/20k.

That's 149 PA of sub .600 OPS play and an ISO of <.065. 16bb/46k. 7 xbh, 1 HR. That's dreadful.

But what can you do? If you keep Casas at AAA too long, his skills vs RHP could deteriorate. He's not being challenged.

He has absolutely lit up vs R the last 2 years by any definition. His underlying numbers are great too.

Ben 10 had a .910 OPS before being called up, but only a .872 OPS in Portland. He skipped AAA all together. In 2016 at the MLB level, he had an OPS of .835, OPS+ of 118. He had pretty big splits but still hit lefties pretty well. Casas is hitting righties better though.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Also, the benefit of Hosmer (he’s so cheap that you can spend money elsewhere) exists with Casas. So if you think there is really excess value in Hosmer that teams would trade for, isn’t trading him in the off-season to a team more in need and recouping that value in ways that more adequately help the team a no-brainer?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Also, the benefit of Hosmer (he’s so cheap that you can spend money elsewhere) exists with Casas. So if you think there is really excess value in Hosmer that teams would trade for, isn’t trading him in the off-season to a team more in need and recouping that value in ways that more adequately help the team a no-brainer?
If the right deal is there, they should definitely move him. I doubt they have Hosmer written in permanent marker for 2023. I'm just not sure what the team would be able to acquire for Hosmer other than the type of prospects he came with (Ferguson, Rosier). I guess he could be part of a bigger package.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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If the right deal is there, they should definitely move him. I doubt they have Hosmer written in permanent marker for 2023. I'm just not sure what the team would be able to acquire for Hosmer other than the type of prospects he came with (Ferguson, Rosier). I guess he could be part of a bigger package.
Oh, I agree. Which suggests the value of Hosmer isn’t nearly as high as many think it is.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Eh....what??
Are they not all right handed? But yeah. He had much smaller splits too. And they got smaller by year.
2014: vs R: 1.008 OPS, vs L: .600
2015: vs R: .822, vs L: .652
2016: vs R: .801, vs L: .726 (includes Minors + MLB)
MLB career: vs R: .916, vs L: .741

Hopefully Casas can get there, but he might make it to the majors during his age 22 season. Meanwhile, Devers was putting up a .311/.361/.555, 132 OPS+ in the majors.

Of course, Xander and Devers made the majors at age 20. Betts was 21. Ben10 just turned 22. They were all top 5 prospects, too. Casas is a top 20 and will be closer to 23 than 22 when he makes his debut. So he's probably more likely to struggle than they are but I don't think it's because of his lack of production to date. He has absolutely mashed righties. He just isn't at their level. (Mayer may get there).
 

BaseballJones

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Are they not all right handed? But yeah. He had much smaller splits too. And they got smaller by year.
2014: vs R: 1.008 OPS, vs L: .600
2015: vs R: .822, vs L: .652
2016: vs R: .801, vs L: .726 (includes Minors + MLB)
MLB career: vs R: .916, vs L: .741

Hopefully Casas can get there, but he might make it to the majors during his age 22 season. Meanwhile, Devers was putting up a .311/.361/.555, 132 OPS+ in the majors.

Of course, Xander and Devers made the majors at age 20. Betts was 21. Ben10 just turned 22. They were all top 5 prospects, too. Casas is a top 20 and will be closer to 23 than 22 when he makes his debut. So he's probably more likely to struggle than they are but I don't think it's because of his lack of production to date. He has absolutely mashed righties. He just isn't at their level. (Mayer may get there).
No, Devers is a left-handed hitter.
 

JM3

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Hosmer has mild surplus value. Everyone seems to agree he's a 1 win player & a win is worth $9.5m in free agency. Even if it would be pretty silly to pay that much for 1 win in reality. The fact that he's locked in for 3/$2.2m is great in a pure surplus value sense.

It is less great because of any potential opportunity cost of playing time/40-man space for players with actual upside. I assume the main differentiator in opinions is that the more people trust Bloom to properly use this little asset for the best interests of the franchise, the more people like the asset, & the less people trust Bloom, the more they think they'll just use Hosmer to block someone important & be super cheap as a franchise.

If they move Casas in a bigger deal, they can hold onto him. If they acquire enough competent hitters, they can move him. If they're somewhere in the middle of those extremes, they can test the market.

You would think a team like the Rays would love veteran competence at that price point considering their financial constraints.

Not sure what the issue would be trading him for fliers like the guys they got with him either if that's the best option. 4 flyers + a couple months of Hosmer for Groome & his required 40-man slot seems fine.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'm trying to think of a prospect similarly ranked to Casas and can only come up with Mayer and Swihart who I think are both bad comps. Mayer because he is going to move up. Swihart because he was 7 months older than Casas when he was drafted, and was 2 years older by the team he reached A+. Despite missing a year due to Covid, Casas still managed to reach AA and AAA a year younger than Swihart did. He also had better production at every level despite the younger age. Swihart got a lot of love for being a C. His best ISO in any season was his age 22 season where he had a .176 ISO. His career minor league ISO was .134 and he struck out a bit more than twice as much as he walked.

Meanwhile, Casas has a career minor league ISO of .217, with a career low of .205. He strikes out about 1.4 times more often than he walks.

All the top 20 prospects the Red Sox have had recently have been top 5 or even #1 outside of Casas, Mayer and Swihart. Maybe I'm missing someone obvious. Jacoby Ellsbury had a great start and peaked at 13 but he's not exactly recent. He also played a premium position and plus plus speed. He could provide value elsewhere. Pedroia never ranked highly outside of Pecota/BP. Lars Anderson was ranked as high as 17 but never really had much success above A ball. Rizzo was never ranked much higher than 40 and wasn't here when he was ranked anyway. Ryan Westmoreland was as high as 18, Life happens.

Top 5 guys: Betts (during season anyway), Ben10, Xander, Devers (during season), Moncada. Could be missing someone. It's been a ton over the last 10 years.
 

chrisfont9

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Ok, so 3 big contracts when they have... 4 big contracts coming off the books.

Bloom has never had anything even close to that in his Sox tenure before, but there's 0 evidence that he's unwilling to spend considering he's done it every year with the team.
And they just spent on Story. And that was even in the face of the LT threshold, so why wouldn't they continue spending when they suddenly have tons of "cap" space?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Oh, I agree. Which suggests the value of Hosmer isn’t nearly as high as many think it is.
How high are people suggesting it is? Most are arguing he's worth a roster spot and if Casas works out, they can flip Hosmer for some F prospects. He's an asset, even if the asset isn't worth much. Worst case, they can just release him.
 

Rovin Romine

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Also, the benefit of Hosmer (he’s so cheap that you can spend money elsewhere) exists with Casas. So if you think there is really excess value in Hosmer that teams would trade for, isn’t trading him in the off-season to a team more in need and recouping that value in ways that more adequately help the team a no-brainer?
There's market value and value to a particular club - the second often tied to surplus.

If we trade Hosmer, do we have an internal backup plan for 1B? If not, and we're trading Hosmer while acquiring a smiliar (yet more expensive?) player, how is that a good use of resources?
 

BaseballJones

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This isn't complicated. Hosmer at $20m a year is a liability. Hosmer at league minimum is a significant asset. He can DH or play 1b or even in a pinch play a little OF. He's been an above average hitter for his career (career ops+ of 108; last 3 seasons ops+ of 109). He's a veteran with championship experience. No, he's not a GREAT player. He's useful and he can help and he makes (for the Sox) virtually NOTHING.

Can they upgrade from Hosmer? There are plenty of players better than him. But for league minimum, he can either start or back up at 1b and provide a solid veteran LH bat and play a pretty decent 1b defensively.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Not sure what you mean by “internal backup plan”. Is the team going to break camp with 2 LH 1b who only play 1b? That’s unprecedented and a waste of a roster spot. I think, over the off-season, they should be able to find a guy who can backup 1b, can hit lefties, and ideally backup another position or two, either via FA or trade. It might even be our old friend Dalbec.

As to the other claims - Hosmer has played 25 innings of the OF in his career, none since 2015, and he’s not a good defensive 1b.

Not sure how relevant or valuable his championship experience is, but if he’s a “significant asset” some say, he should be traded to a team that doesn’t have a minimum salaried 1b on the roster.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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If Hosmer is on the roster next year, it's only because they don't think Casas is ready (or he suffers some kind of major injury). I can't see any other scenario where he's still around come Opening Day 2023. Hosmer isn't going to back up Casas. He isn't going to be a part-time DH or emergency OF. He's either the starting 1B with Casas in Worcester or he's playing somewhere else.

That said, I wouldn't rush to trade him this winter. I'd bring him to spring training, especially if Casas doesn't get much/any run this season with the big club. If Casas shows himself ready to break camp, that's when I'd shop Hosmer around or cut him loose.
 

johnlos

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If Hosmer is on the roster next year, it's only because they don't think Casas is ready (or he suffers some kind of major injury). I can't see any other scenario where he's still around come Opening Day 2023. Hosmer isn't going to back up Casas. He isn't going to be a part-time DH or emergency OF. He's either the starting 1B with Casas in Worcester or he's playing somewhere else.

That said, I wouldn't rush to trade him this winter. I'd bring him to spring training, especially if Casas doesn't get much/any run this season with the big club. If Casas shows himself ready to break camp, that's when I'd shop Hosmer around or cut him loose.
Agreed. I guess we can assume DH can be relatively cheaply filled with the Vogelbachs of the world.
 

BravesField

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If SD found no trade partner for Hosmer, they were going to release him. Now some team ahead of the Sox in the pecking order would have claimed him. It's obvious that Chaim wanted Hosmer and he has a plan for him and that plan goes beyond 2022. Do you really think Chaim just wanted to shore up the 1B position for August and September? Jay Groome had value to the Sox, probably in a future deal with another team, but value none the less. Bloom is not going to move Groome for 2 months of Hosmer and 2 lottery ticket A ball types.

Hosmer is on this team next year or he will be traded. Any talk of him being released in the off season makes no sense.
 

jon abbey

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If SD found no trade partner for Hosmer, they were going to release him. Now some team ahead of the Sox in the pecking order would have claimed him.
No one would have claimed him or they'd be responsible for his contract, pecking order doesn't matter in this case.
 

BravesField

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No one would have claimed him or they'd be responsible for his contract, pecking order doesn't matter in this case.
Right. So at that point Hosmer could have negotiated himself with the other 28 teams, like JBJ did.

Thanks for clearing that up, my bad.

Still Chaim wanted him, and he had to trade for Hosmer to get him.
 

YTF

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Right. So at that point Hosmer could have negotiated himself with the other 28 teams, like JBJ did.

Thanks for clearing that up, my bad.

Still Chaim wanted him, and he had to trade for Hosmer to get him.
Yes, Chaim wanted him for roughly $740,000 per year for three years and he traded a player that he he felt was expendable at a time when they are likely going to have to re-examine the 40 man roster. He also got back 2 prospects in the deal.
 
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koufax32

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Assuming a few reasonable scenarios of:
Correa opts out and signs a big contract
X goes elsewhere
Turner goes back to LA

What do we think a Swanson contract would look like? Who would even be his suitors? If he’s expecting to get $20 mil.+/year, then forget it. Anything below that starts getting my attention though.
 

Super Nomario

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Devers, Betts and Bogaerts are all RH while Casas is left handed. I have no proof to back this up but I always assumed lefties would have much bigger splits.


Casas vs R: .196 PA, .281/.378/.567, 27xbh/10HR, 27bb/33k. 13.8% BB%/16.8% K%. Also, no shift next year.

.945 OPS vs R in AAA. Is that not absolutely lighting it up? Especially when it comes with a 16.8% K%.

Last year vs R: 288 PA, .298/.424/.540, 26xbh/14 HR, 51bb/51k. 17.7% BB%/k%.

.964 OPS despite skipping A+ and missing 2020 due to covid. Also struck out less than 20% of the time.

That's 486 PA of .950+ OPS ball, 53 xbh, 24 HR, 78bb/84k over the last 2 years vs R. That's what I call lighting it up.

Casas has nothing left to learn in AAA. He's not going to how to learn to hit LHP in AAA because there just aren't enough PA to go around vs L... unless you want him in AAA until mid 2024 or so. How well does one want Casas to play exactly? Does he need to have an 1.100 OPS vs R to get a call up?

vs L in 2022: 66 PA, .200/.333/.255, 3xbh/0HR, 10bb/26k
vs L in 2021: 83 PA, .219/.289/.301, 4 xbh/1HR, 6bb/20k.

That's 149 PA of sub .600 OPS play and an ISO of <.065. 16bb/46k. 7 xbh, 1 HR. That's dreadful.

But what can you do? If you keep Casas at AAA too long, his skills vs RHP could deteriorate. He's not being challenged.

He has absolutely lit up vs R the last 2 years by any definition. His underlying numbers are great too.

Ben 10 had a .910 OPS before being called up, but only a .872 OPS in Portland. He skipped AAA all together. In 2016 at the MLB level, he had an OPS of .835, OPS+ of 118. He had pretty big splits but still hit lefties pretty well. Casas is hitting righties better though.
Do you want to call Casas up and play him against lefties even though he's an absolute black hole against lefthanded pitching? Or do you want to call Casas up and platoon him, likely consigning him to being a platoon player for life at age 22/23? You're right that he's not going to get a ton of PAs against lefties in extended time in Worcester, but OTOH you can let him take his lumps against them without damaging the MLB squad.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Do you want to call Casas up and play him against lefties even though he's an absolute black hole against lefthanded pitching? Or do you want to call Casas up and platoon him, likely consigning him to being a platoon player for life at age 22/23? You're right that he's not going to get a ton of PAs against lefties in extended time in Worcester, but OTOH you can let him take his lumps against them without damaging the MLB squad.
There’s ways to ease them in to facing lefties, no? Probably against elite type starters have him take a break…. Maybe late inning close games PH for him? Otherwise let him face them and take the growing pains
 

Niastri

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Do you want to call Casas up and play him against lefties even though he's an absolute black hole against lefthanded pitching? Or do you want to call Casas up and platoon him, likely consigning him to being a platoon player for life at age 22/23? You're right that he's not going to get a ton of PAs against lefties in extended time in Worcester, but OTOH you can let him take his lumps against them without damaging the MLB squad.
You call up Casas this year as soon as it won't affect his eligibility for rookie of the year next year. Evaluate him for as many games as he can get this year. Then you make him your starter for '23 if he shows enough. Sometimes you use Dalbec to sub for him when there are lefties, sometimes you let him face them. Same for Hosmer and Devers. Dalbec is a very good hitter against lefties and can back up three positions. All the other guys mentioned are much better against righties.
 

Rovin Romine

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Not sure what you mean by “internal backup plan”. Is the team going to break camp with 2 LH 1b who only play 1b? That’s unprecedented and a waste of a roster spot. I think, over the off-season, they should be able to find a guy who can backup 1b, can hit lefties, and ideally backup another position or two, either via FA or trade. It might even be our old friend Dalbec.
So if Casas struggles or is injured, you're OK with starting Bobby Dalbec at first next year?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Do you want to call Casas up and play him against lefties even though he's an absolute black hole against lefthanded pitching? Or do you want to call Casas up and platoon him, likely consigning him to being a platoon player for life at age 22/23? You're right that he's not going to get a ton of PAs against lefties in extended time in Worcester, but OTOH you can let him take his lumps against them without damaging the MLB squad.
Get him PAs at the MLB level. It's that, platooning him, or keeping him in AAA until 2025. I don't see a better solution than "learn on the job."
 

Yo La Tengo

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What would a trade for Schwarber look like? The Phillies are fatally flawed with their current defensive shortcomings and Schwarber made it clear in a recent interview that he wished he had come back to Boston (not that his feelings about it matter much for trade purposes).

EDIT: I've wondered if Bloom thought he could sign Schwarber as part of the Renfroe trade and it just never came together. It felt like there was a window pre-lock out when Schwarber would have signed a very reasonable 4 year deal to come back to Boston.
 
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Petagine in a Bottle

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So if Casas struggles or is injured, you're OK with starting Bobby Dalbec at first next year?
Again, I don’t know how both Hosmer and Casas can co-exist on the same roster. So I’d go with Casas and a RH backup, and adjust from there if he gets hurt.

Hosmer is a bottom tier 1b and a lousy defender who will be 33 next year; he’s Doug Mientkiewicz without the defense. I don’t think players like him are hard to find or all that valuable.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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If I were in charge, I’d consider Jose Abreu or Jesus Aguilar - both can hit well enough to be credible full-time replacements for JD Martinez and can caddy for Casas if he flops. I don’t think either would take a large commitment in years or dollars. If you’d prefer the trade market, then I and others on the board have suggested Garrett Cooper as someone who can fill a similar role to what Schwarber did in ‘21. I doubt he’d cost any of the big three Drive infielders. Either move would fit the “contend now without messing with the long-term vision” motif. But I don’t know what they’ll actually do (obviously!), it will probably be something that is not this.
 

YTF

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Again, I don’t know how both Hosmer and Casas can co-exist on the same roster. So I’d go with Casas and a RH backup, and adjust from there if he gets hurt.

Hosmer is a bottom tier 1b and a lousy defender who will be 33 next year; he’s Doug Mientkiewicz without the defense. I don’t think players like him are hard to find or all that valuable.
They don't need to coexist for the entire season and please help me out here with something. I keep reading about how bad a defender Hosmer is. He's won 4 Gold Gloves, when did he become so bad at fielding his position?
 

Max Power

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Again, I don’t know how both Hosmer and Casas can co-exist on the same roster. So I’d go with Casas and a RH backup, and adjust from there if he gets hurt.

Hosmer is a bottom tier 1b and a lousy defender who will be 33 next year; he’s Doug Mientkiewicz without the defense. I don’t think players like him are hard to find or all that valuable.
You'd think, but the Red Sox have failed to do so for two years. I don't think it's very likely Casas outperforms Hosmer next year at the major league level. Both make the minimum, both are lefties, but one has options. I'd leave Casas at AAA to start the season until he starts tearing the cover off the ball. A .249/.335./.463 line with a 23% strikeout rate in Worcester isn't something that you need to find a way to get into the Boston lineup.

Emmanuel Valdez is making a better case for a look next year. Unfortunately he's only 5' 9", so he wouldn't be a great target at first. He's played a bit at corner outfield. Maybe he can do that acceptably at the major league level.
 

Rovin Romine

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Again, I don’t know how both Hosmer and Casas can co-exist on the same roster. So I’d go with Casas and a RH backup, and adjust from there if he gets hurt.

Hosmer is a bottom tier 1b and a lousy defender who will be 33 next year; he’s Doug Mientkiewicz without the defense. I don’t think players like him are hard to find or all that valuable.
You didn't answer my question - So if Casas struggles or is injured, you're OK with starting Bobby Dalbec at first next year?

And if not, what's the cost of upgrading Hosmer that you think is a wise and prudent use of resources? Who do you get, and/or who do you give up/what do you pay?