Unrelated, but I’m sort of confused by the argument that Bloom has built a great farm system…yet the suggestion of calling up any of the top prospects who are closest to ready (Duran or Casas) is swatted down with a “nah, not ready” or “he won’t be a good major league player”.
Others have commented already, but the strength of the farm comes mostly from the lower levels outside of Casas and Duran. We will probably see both by July, if not June. I'd guess we see Duran sooner than Casas. They've been aggressive with Casas from the start. He basically skipped over A+ (7 PA in 2019) and was placed in AA despite the missed year of covid and no real A+ exposure. He was also jerked around for the first half of 2021 for the Olympics. Despite all that, he improved pretty much across the board. His batting eye has come a long way, too. He most likely will have his struggle period, but I think he'll fair far better than Duran did in his first 100ish PA (adjusting for luck, anyway). Casas is almost universally considered a top 20 prospect. While prospects fail, hitters in the top 20 have pretty high success rates. I think Casas has a chance to be the next face of the organization depending on what happens with X/Devers.
Duran was pretty high on mid season lists last year (mid season lists never look like end of season lists, mid season lists include lots of heliium) but was in the 80 range on most end of season lists in 2021 and beginning of season lists for 2022. Those prospects have far lower success rates. I think I'm also the only one who flat out said he'd suck out loud. From reading the posts, it looks like there are a few others that aren't high on him but it's because they think he's "positionless" (no arm for RF, bad in CF) or they have personal biases (parapharsing but one poster said they hate/dislike speed first players). I've been paying close attention to him for awhile and remember saying "If he ever added power to his game." Of course, I say that about a lot of prospects (Pedro Castellanos is my current "add power" guy). Surprisingly, Duran actually did add some power to his game. Unfortunately, the rest of his offensive game suffered because of it.
He's also had a different approach at the plate each of the last 3 seasons. His first 2 years, he used his speed to beat out everything and would have excessively high BAbips. That worked until he moved up to AA where the defense is considerably better. Wanting to add power, he went to his dad (a body builder) to add some strength and altered his approach at the plate. That worked for the first few months but then it did not. There's also some chatter that Worchester played a large part in his HR totals but some of his HRs were no brainers. Maybe the wind
really carries. He was pretty dreadful from July to the end of the year.
May: .278/.366/.625 in 82 PA, 10bb/21k, 4 doubles, 7 HRs.
June: .287/.388/.598 in 103 PA, 11bb/21k, 3 doubles, 8 HRs
July: .174/.237/.304 in 76 PA, 5bb/26k, 2 doubles, 2 triples, 1 HR
August: .236/.276/.347 in 76 PA, 4bb/25k, 3 doubles, 1 triple, 1 HR
September: .211/.286/.342 in 42 PA, 3bb/8k, 2 doubles, 1 HR
October: .308/.438/.462 in 16 PA, 1bb/5k, 1 triple.
212 PA, 112 were in the Majors. He was struggling prior to his call up (.200/.294/.300 3bb/10k in 34 PA before call up) and continued to struggle after being sent down for the rest of the year (.218/.328/.364 in 64 PA).
This year, he's trying to drive the ball to take advantage of his speed. For the first time this season, he hit the ball with some authority over the weekend. In the early going, he's slashing .360/.458/.560 with a .472 BAbip in 59 PA. While I'd like to see how he does with a normal BABip, he's at 342 PA in AAA and has 112 in the Majors. I'm not sure he has much more to prove at the AAA level, even if I'm not a buyer. I guess him going with a new approach is enough reason to stay in AAA.
I don't think he'll be a good player, but I'm not a scout and I could easily be wrong. It's just one opinion and it's not the gospel. Plus, things change. Maybe his new approach will lead to more power and/or walks. He had 23bb in 352 AA PA, he's at 39bb in 342 PA at AAA currently. With his speed, on base skills would be even more beneficial than usual.
All the other impact prospects are at least a year or two away. Non surprise division, anyway. I wouldn't be totally shocked if someone like Brandon Walter was in our bullpen by the end of the year, but I'm not expecting it.
TL
R; The farm system is really good. If things go moderately well in player development, we'll be seeing it pay off in a big way from 2023-2025. If it has one weakness, it's a lack of MR arms. Considering that's probably the most common commodity in the minors, it shouldn't be too hard to fix. The Sox also hold out longer than most teams in converting SP to MR. Or did. Maybe it changes under Chaim but it hasn't yet. Nick Yorke just turned 20, Mayer is 19. An ETA of 2024 for them is semi optimistic. Bello is 23 in May, should end the year in AAA and we may see him pitch in Boston sometime in 2023. Bleis and Gonzales are forever away. Bryan Mata, Jay Groome, Chris Murphy, Brandon Walter are all possibly 2023. Help is on the way.