After that ridiculous 33-13 thrashing of the White Sox, the Red Sox are now third in AL in runs (8 behind NYY and 10 behind LAA) and 5th in run differential behind the division leaders and LAA.
If I did the math right Verdugo now has a 692 ops over the last 5 series, which dates back to when the Sox hot streak started, before that he had a 573 ops. League average this year is 691.Now replace Verdugo with Duran or a corpse, either would be an upgrade, and all will be right.
Yup. The moment I decide to trash Verdugo he ends up with a great game and I end up with egg on my face. Maybe I need to start trashing Dalbec.If I did the math right Verdugo now has a 692 ops over the last 5 series, which dates back to when the Sox hot streak started, before that he had a 573 ops. League average this year is 691.
The improved offense is great to see, but we do have to note that after 3 games, they only crept one game closer to .500. Let's hope they run off a string of wins against the Orioles, no matter how infinitesimally it may raise their run differential.After that ridiculous 33-13 thrashing of the White Sox, the Red Sox are now third in AL in runs (8 behind NYY and 10 behind LAA) and 5th in run differential behind the division leaders and LAA.
A 10 game stretch against the Orioles, Reds, and As should be good for both their run differential and their actual wins. If they don't win at least 7 of these it'll be a disappointment.The improved offense is great to see, but we do have to note that after 3 games, they only crept one game closer to .500. Let's hope they run off a string of wins against the Orioles, no matter how infinitesimally it may raise their run differential.
Verdugo still has a -0.5 WAR on the year so I'd suggest continuing to trash him until he's at least at replacement level.Yup. The moment I decide to trash Verdugo he ends up with a great game and I end up with egg on my face. Maybe I need to start trashing Dalbec.
That is a point that is often lost in discussing whether, or how much, a player is sucking this year.League average this year is 691.
And it's an absolutely HUGE point.That is a point that is often lost in discussing whether, or how much, a player is sucking this year.
Alex Verdugo is another tough one to remain patient with as he wasn’t projected to be a major contributor in either homers or steals. You were really buying him as an accumulator in a good lineup and with a good batting average, which makes him risky as it doesn’t take much to go from solid contributor across the board to replacement level. The good news, besides the much higher xBA, is that his strikeout rate and Swtk% mark are both at career bests. Everything here looks good, except for a low LD% which could be corrected quickly. Again, I would certainly remain patient as an owner, especially in a deep league, but without the expectation of significantly improved power or stolen bases, he’s suspect in shallower leagues.
View: https://twitter.com/dakern74/status/1530046860869750784Enrique Hernandez: Also hit leadoff homer in Chicago on Tuesday. Only other Red Sox batter to hit two there is Wade Boggs, and his were in different stadiums (1984 & 1991).
View: https://twitter.com/dakern74/status/1530047090667438081Red Sox: First time scoring 16+ runs in a game since... oh yeah. Tuesday. Second time in franchise history doing it twice in the same road series. Thumped the A's 18-7 and 17-7 in an Independence Day doubleheader in 1939.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHA/PHA193907041.shtml
Trevor Story: First player in Red Sox history to have 21+ RBI in a 7-game span. Last for any team was TOR Edwin Encarnacion in Aug 2015.
Not sure how to find the answer. we know offense is down. Has Babip remained "normal" across MLB?Also, it's still silly season with sample sizes.
Verdugo's first 63 PA this year: .291/.341/.491 on a .265 BAbip
Next 80 PA: .145/.163/.184 on a .164 BAbip
Last 26 PA: .375/.423/.542 on a .429 BAbip
169 PA is a super small sample size and it's a sample size that possibly includes his worst 80 PA stretch of the year. His BAbip for the year now sits at .241. If his BAbip were at his career rate of .324 going into the season, he'd be slashing .297/.331/.413.
His teammates have certainly started to hit, to the excuse of the ball and weather is no longer valid. Which leaves approach. His BABIP being low is likely due to his continued flyouts to the warning track.Not sure how to find the answer. we know offense is down. Has Babip remained "normal" across MLB?
Nope. The league average BABIP is currently .286, which is down from .292 in 2020-21. It would be the lowest BABIP across the league since 1992 (.285).Not sure how to find the answer. we know offense is down. Has Babip remained "normal" across MLB?
I suppose we can say he's started to hit as well. We'll see how far it goes.His teammates have certainly started to hit, to the excuse of the ball and weather is no longer valid. Which leaves approach. His BABIP being low is likely due to his continued flyouts to the warning track.
6 games ago, his BAbip was .207. Now it sits at .241.His teammates have certainly started to hit, to the excuse of the ball and weather is no longer valid. Which leaves approach. His BABIP being low is likely due to his continued flyouts to the warning track.
Wonderful. If this keeps up pretty soon he'll get that WAR up above 0.0!6 games ago, his BAbip was .207. Now it sits at .241.
.826 OPS over his last 8 games. He IS doing better. But I'd agree that he needs to keep this up to be a positive contributor.Wonderful. If this keeps up pretty soon he'll get that WAR up above 0.0!
He needs to do better. Period, end of story. If it's all bad luck I'd expect that to change soon. If it's not, and I don't think it is, he needs to change his approach. We'll see.
In 2013 the Red Sox main third baseman had an OPS+ of 87Wonderful. If this keeps up pretty soon he'll get that WAR up above 0.0!
He needs to do better. Period, end of story. If it's all bad luck I'd expect that to change soon. If it's not, and I don't think it is, he needs to change his approach. We'll see.
Of course not. A 26 year old outfielder theoretically in his prime who was the centerpiece of a trade of an MVP level player, however, does need to reach or exceed his potential for the team to achieve anything.In 2013 the Red Sox main third baseman had an OPS+ of 87
In 2007 their SS's OPS+ was 65. Their CF was 83
I won't even mention Pokey in 2004.
Everyone doesn't have to be above average or reach their potential for the team to be successful
Unfortunately, he gets most of his value from batting average so he's a slave to BAbip. This is even more true this year where he is sporting a career low K% and BB%. I'm sure it's not 100% bad luck. Some of it is probably mental. But with better luck, that goes away. I also have no clue what causes the huge difference in LD% from FG to BBref, but BBref has Verdugo's LD% at 20.7%. That is still low, the 2 previous years were 26.8% and 24.5%.Wonderful. If this keeps up pretty soon he'll get that WAR up above 0.0!
He needs to do better. Period, end of story. If it's all bad luck I'd expect that to change soon. If it's not, and I don't think it is, he needs to change his approach. We'll see.
Huh? You are going to bench Verdugo against LH….but let Bradley or Duran start against them? Verdugo hasn’t been getting the results but his EV and Hard hit % are above his career norms, and his strikeout rates are below. He will be fine.I am with Smiling Joe. I hope his performance yesterday is a sign of things to come, but we are almost to June. It is not like the Sox don't have options here. If he doesn't continue to improve, they need to send Dalbec down and call up either Duran or Casas (however you spell his name). Verdugo can then be the backup outfielder who does not play against lefties.
I will believe he will be fine when his numbers indicate that he is fine. He had a great game yesterday and that was wonderful. He is still at a negative 0.5 War. So yeah I would rather have Duran work on getting at bats vs lefties then Verdugo who we know sucks vs lefties.Huh? You are going to bench Verdugo against LH….but let Bradley or Duran start against them? Verdugo hasn’t been getting the results but his EV and Hard hit % are above his career norms, and his strikeout rates are below. He will be fine.
While this is true, it's a bit misleading without context. Those clubs were offensive powerhouses that carried weaker offensive players (often those who held down key defensive positions and so had positive value overall: Cabrera, Pokey, Crisp, Lugo, yes, even Middlebrooks, though marginally.)In 2013 the Red Sox main third baseman had an OPS+ of 87
In 2007 their SS's OPS+ was 65. Their CF was 83
I won't even mention Pokey in 2004.
Everyone doesn't have to be above average or reach their potential for the team to be successful
RAW OPS numbers, but's the best I could find.In 2013 the Red Sox main third baseman had an OPS+ of 87
In 2007 their SS's OPS+ was 65. Their CF was 83
I won't even mention Pokey in 2004.
Everyone doesn't have to be above average or reach their potential for the team to be successful
What are the options? I get Enrique and JBJ offer defense, but they are also on the wrong side of 30 whereas Verdugo just turned 26. Calling up Duran is an option but 2 of Verdugo/JBJ/Enrique are going to have to continue to hit at close to an average level.I am with Smiling Joe. I hope his performance yesterday is a sign of things to come, but we are almost to June. It is not like the Sox don't have options here. If he doesn't continue to improve, they need to send Dalbec down and call up either Duran or Casas (however you spell his name). Verdugo can then be the backup outfielder who does not play against lefties.
Good stuff. And yeah, I know there are 4 subpar hitters in the lineup. I think there were 6 2 weeks ago (or was it 7)? Just trying to point out what you said better: You can win it all with 1 or 2 subpar bats in the lineup. Verdugo doesn't make up for it with his glove like Reese or Crisp did, but that doesn't make it a fatal flawRAW OPS numbers, but's the best I could find.
C: 17th (.611)
1b: 30th (.493)
2b: 5th (.741)
SS: 3rd (.820)
3b: 3rd (.966)
LF: 19th (.658)
CF: 21st (.620)
RF: 25th (.558)
DH: 2nd (.951)
PH: 12th (.686)
That's roughly a
49 OPS+ for 1b
62 OPS+ for RF
77 OPS+ for CF
74 OPS+ for C
Everyone doesn't need to be above average or even average. A team can usually carry a catcher and another dead bat. It would be hard to carry 4 positions averaging a 65.5 OPS amongst them all season. That's 44% of your lineup. Luckily, the 3 OF and Vazquez have been trending up. I think your post doesn't make the point you intended it to. The 2022 Redsox currently have 4 players worse than their 2013 3b and they have 4 players combined hitting about as well as their 2007 SS.
There's another WooSox player hitting better than Fitzgerald, and wouldn't add to our LHH outfielder redundancy.Dalbec is another matter. Casas is currently injured so they can't call him up and he's not exactly destroying AAA pitching anyway (.248/.359/.457). I'd like to see Ryan Fitzgerald called up. He's played every position but 1b and is already 27. No worry about rushing him. It would just require adding him to the 40. He's slashing .303/.365/.600 with 11bb/47k in 173 PA. That's a ton of power, and it's not Worcester. (.313/.365/.672 in 74 Road PA).
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgiGood stuff. And yeah, I know there are 4 subpar hitters in the lineup. I think there were 6 2 weeks ago (or was it 7)? Just trying to point out what you said better: You can win it all with 1 or 2 subpar bats in the lineup. Verdugo doesn't make up for it with his glove like Reese or Crisp did, but that doesn't make it a fatal flaw
If his hitting approach is off though, then wouldn't you expect to see some sort of change when comparing him to previous years (when he was a more effective hitter)? Is his swing really all that different? I've tried to compare clips of his from 2021 vs. 2022 and his swing looks pretty similar. Here is a 2021 vs. 2022 at-bat. (I used MLB Film room to make two clips, both of swings on a cutter in). I agree that a swing designed to hit fly balls may not be optimal given the deadened ball, but I don't see any significant changes in the way his swing looks. And given how finicky swings are, I don't know if I want him trying a mechanical overhaul after a bad month, especially one that could just as easily be fueled by bad BABIP luck. I know you've said that scouting is what is needed to explain his issues, since the underlying stats (such as xwOBA) aren't matching it up so...is there something that has changed in his swing? Otherwise I guess this is coming down to "how much do you want a hitter to tinker with his swing?"Scouting him is the answer here, my guess is that he's still trying to uppercut everything out of the park and the weather/ball/his strength isn't enough to reward such an approach.
The low LD% is a major problem and that's where he need to focus. Enough with trying to hit everything out of the park.
Fangraphs gets their batted ball data from Baseball Info Solutions, so it’s not public info how they determine line drive vs. fly ball etc. They do say, however, that the lines are somewhat arbitrary and imprecise. It seems like Verdugo has had several hits that are on the border of line drive and fly ball, and FG says fly ball while Bref says line drive, although I can’t find anywhere where Bref says where they get their batted ball dataUnfortunately, he gets most of his value from batting average so he's a slave to BAbip. This is even more true this year where he is sporting a career low K% and BB%. I'm sure it's not 100% bad luck. Some of it is probably mental. But with better luck, that goes away. I also have no clue what causes the huge difference in LD% from FG to BBref, but BBref has Verdugo's LD% at 20.7%. That is still low, the 2 previous years were 26.8% and 24.5%.
I'm not a huge Verdugo fan but I'm not going to address the situation 169 PA into the season. He's on a 3 game hitting streak and has had 3 hits in 2 of the last 5 games. Hopefully, the trend continues and his BAbip starts to climb back to career norms. Like you said though, we'll see. Or we won't. Maybe he's already made those changes.
Then again, I'd be on board with replacing Dalbec and he's only at 126 PA for the year. He doesn't have Verdugo's track record though.
Flyin Drive?Fangraphs gets their batted ball data from Baseball Info Solutions, so it’s not public info how they determine line drive vs. fly ball etc. They do say, however, that the lines are somewhat arbitrary and imprecise. It seems like Verdugo has had several hits that are on the border of line drive and fly ball, and FG says fly ball while Bref says line drive, although I can’t find anywhere where Bref says where they get their batted ball data
So are you theorizing that a descriptive stat will trend more positive as he starts to produce more positive results?Your 26 year old starting LFer takes the season off and people think they'll be fine? That's what's absurd.
He had 4 hits last night and he's still got a -0.5 WAR this year. That's how bad he's been. Of course they can't succeed unless he gets this shit figured out.
Okay, but isn't that all factored into the xBA, xSLG, xWOBA type numbers?His teammates have certainly started to hit, to the excuse of the ball and weather is no longer valid. Which leaves approach. His BABIP being low is likely due to his continued flyouts to the warning track.
To be fair, this may be a terrible time to replace Dalbec. He's on a 4 game hitting streak with 2 homeruns.Unfortunately, he gets most of his value from batting average so he's a slave to BAbip. This is even more true this year where he is sporting a career low K% and BB%. I'm sure it's not 100% bad luck. Some of it is probably mental. But with better luck, that goes away. I also have no clue what causes the huge difference in LD% from FG to BBref, but BBref has Verdugo's LD% at 20.7%. That is still low, the 2 previous years were 26.8% and 24.5%.
I'm not a huge Verdugo fan but I'm not going to address the situation 169 PA into the season. He's on a 3 game hitting streak and has had 3 hits in 2 of the last 5 games. Hopefully, the trend continues and his BAbip starts to climb back to career norms. Like you said though, we'll see. Or we won't. Maybe he's already made those changes.
Then again, I'd be on board with replacing Dalbec and he's only at 126 PA for the year. He doesn't have Verdugo's track record though.
He's still learning to play 1st, but IMO he's doing better. The Sox are better off with him in RF than Arroyo. His bat is keeping him in the lineup and Dalbec has taken notice. Yep, he seems to have become a thing. A good thing, at least for the time being. Let's hope that 2022 is the year that Franchy Cordero permanently sheds the AAAA label.Is Franchy Cordero becoming a thing?
He certainly looks like he’s becoming a thing.
Now at a .264 BAbip.6 games ago, his BAbip was .207. Now it sits at .241.