I actually think this sets up nicely for Italy. England are more predictable, their approach has been similar in every game. We know England will play cautiously. England are not set up to trouble Italy like Spain did with quick interchanges of passes in the midfield, and England will be reluctant to commit numbers forward in attack. I think England will really struggle to create much against Italy from open play unless they can get Sterling and Saka in behind. Their most dangerous tactic will be Kane dropping deep, where the closest midfielder will be Jorginho, who is not great at covering in that area, and Italy really struggled to handle Spain's false 9 tactics. But someone has to get the ball to Kane in those spots, and England lack the midfielders to play those passes that Spain have: Rice/Phillips/Mount are very different players from Busquets/Koke/Pedri.
Italy's approach is less clear. It will be interesting to see when and how high Italy press. England are vulnerable to a press as the Rice/Phillips DM duo aren't really passing/dribbling oriented players and England don't progress the ball as a team; the attacking players tend to stay high, which leads to a separation between the back six and the front four. This means passing outlets for the press to cover. England also don't have a defender who can play accurate long balls over the top from the back (although Stones is not bad). Denmark had some success at this in the first 55 minutes before they ran out of gas, and Italy are more talented and should be able to turn a press into chances more effectively. But a press could expose the Italian back line's lack of pace in transitions if England can manage to break it, and Italy don't have the fitness to sustain a press for 90 minutes.
Another question for Italy is how much they push their fullbacks forward. If Italy keep their FBs back this is likely to turn into a very dull game with lots of sterile possession among the backlines and the teams trading attempts to attack 4v6.
I think Italy have an advantage in that Mancini is a more creative and tactically flexible manager than Southgate. Southgate has been ok this tournament but he has favored a conservative approach that grinds teams down and he has been slow to make in-game adjustments. He has a lot of similarities to Deschamps, in that he plays for a clean sheet and trusts his talented attackers to come up with a goal somewhere so he can win 1-0. That works ok long as you don't actually go behind, but is a problem if you do. England needed a lucky break to get by a totally gassed Denmark without penalties. If Italy can get a lead, England may struggle to get back into the game.
The mental stuff is harder to judge. The pressure is certainly on England, playing at home with the weight of history. Don't know if that really matters. Most of the England players have played in a lot of big games before, although nothing quite like this.
Man for man, England have a stronger team and a much deeper squad; Italy are better at GK, CB, and maybe one of the CM spots but that's about it, and just about every attacking player in England's squad would start for Italy. But I don't trust Southgate to deploy that squad to maximize England's advantages. That means a 50/50ish match that's likely to be cagey and low-event at both ends with both teams struggling to create. 1-1 and decided on penalties would not surprise me.