Celtics in 18-19

lovegtm

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Jaylen+picks as the centerpiece of an AD trade makes so much sense that I'm not sure he gets moved prior to that situation resolving. If he does get moved before, I'd much rather get Beal than Turner.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Jaylen+picks as the centerpiece of an AD trade makes so much sense that I'm not sure he gets moved prior to that situation resolving. If he does get moved before, I'd much rather get Beal than Turner.
The Turner hypothetical was with him still making less than Jaylen Brown. Beal makes far, far more and would require other pieces.

As BenHogan pointed out though, Turner signed an extension already so it doesn't matter.
 

DJnVa

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Seen some stories in last day or two talking about the season and it seems the team has admitted that there was some of the "believing their own hype" thing going on. Horford had a quote about how they thought they would just go "BOOM" this season. To their credit, it seems they've recognized this.
 

DJnVa

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The Turner hypothetical was with him still making less than Jaylen Brown. Beal makes far, far more and would require other pieces.
Yeah, Beal makes $25 million, so it's tough to get there since we have no one between Tatum's $6.7 and Kyrie's $20. Smart at $11 will eventually be available, but I don't think he's going anywhere.
 

the moops

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Jaylen+picks as the centerpiece of an AD trade makes so much sense that I'm not sure he gets moved prior to that situation resolving. If he does get moved before, I'd much rather get Beal than Turner.
Jaylen + picks is ridiculously light for any potential AD deal. It is going to take Tatum, IMO
 

BigSoxFan

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Jaylen + picks is ridiculously light for any potential AD deal. It is going to take Tatum, IMO
With the SAC and MEM picks being de-valued a bit, I think this is right. Tatum is Ainge’s trump card. And if AD were ever available, I think Ainge would use it.
 

mauf

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Rozier won’t fetch a draft asset, unless you consider something like a top-40 protected second rounder to be an “asset.” And we’re certainly not getting the likes of D.J. Augustin for him. If Danny moves Rozier, it will be an addition-by-subtraction move with no significant return.

And if Terry doesn’t change in a hurry, Danny should do it.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Rozier won’t fetch a draft asset, unless you consider something like a top-40 protected second rounder to be an “asset.” And we’re certainly not getting the likes of D.J. Augustin for him. If Danny moves Rozier, it will be an addition-by-subtraction move with no significant return.

And if Terry doesn’t change in a hurry, Danny should do it.
I think you are correct that Rozier won't fetch much and I cannot see swap where the Cs get a player that fills a need in return for him. If they want a replacement ball handler they will have to do a separate transaction.

That said, I think the Cs might be able to get a future protected first for him. He isn't without value and a team in need of his skill set (maybe a Portland or New Orleans) might pay away a future asset. I don't think it will be great but I think a top 40 second round pick is a bit light.
 

lovegtm

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And we still can't trade for AD without including Irving. Why are we still talking about this?
Because we're thinking about after Kyrie signs his extension, when we can trade for AD without including Kyrie.

Re Tatum for AD: this would be so far beyond any recent superstar trade haul that it's tough to see happening. 21 year-old guys with 2 years NBA experience who are regarded as future superstars don't get moved.
 

Devizier

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Seen some stories in last day or two talking about the season and it seems the team has admitted that there was some of the "believing their own hype" thing going on. Horford had a quote about how they thought they would just go "BOOM" this season. To their credit, it seems they've recognized this.
I am one hundred percent on the "too many chiefs" hypothesis that HRB advanced before the season.

I'm also worried about Hayward.
 

BillMuellerFanClub

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I am one hundred percent on the "too many chiefs" hypothesis that HRB advanced before the season.

I'm also worried about Hayward.
Can you provide some context as to why you're worried about Hayward? Have you watched the last 10 games? While I understand a rational concern that he may not regain that explosiveness going to the bucket, he's looked fantastic running the offense and finding his role within the team. I think he's a bit tentative and that role needs to expand, but there's been plenty of improvement and a lot to be hopeful for.
 

lexrageorge

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I am one hundred percent on the "too many chiefs" hypothesis that HRB advanced before the season.

I'm also worried about Hayward.
The expectation going into this season is that Hayward would likely need at least half a season to get his confidence, timing, and other aspects of his game back. As noted multiple times, the last 10 games or so he has shown flashes of the player we were hoping to get when he was signed.

He's missed all of 2 games so far. If he plays 65-70 games, that's a win, and he's on pace to exceed that.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Agreed, that is good news. What about Tommy? I know he's beloved by most, but I personally think it's time for him to hang it up. He's not adding a whole lot these days other than pointing out the free throw attempts when the Celts have taken fewer. I know he's reduced his schedule to only home games, and I get it that he'll be there until HE decides he's had enough. Just wondering if he has said anything about how much longer he's gonna go.
I'm partial because I grew up listening to him, but I hope he broadcasts games forever. I agree that he's lost some mph off his fastball and he doesn't offer the most compelling analysis, but listening to Tommy is like watching the game with your ornery grandfather who loves the Celtics just as much as you do and it works for me. Scal has taken some heat in the gamethreads but I think he's really solid and will be a fine heir to Tommy when Tommy decides to hang them up.
 

Jimbodandy

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The expectation going into this season is that Hayward would likely need at least half a season to get his confidence, timing, and other aspects of his game back. As noted multiple times, the last 10 games or so he has shown flashes of the player we were hoping to get when he was signed.

He's missed all of 2 games so far. If he plays 65-70 games, that's a win, and he's on pace to exceed that.
I think that the role definition is real. Imo it's less about managing guys who "need the ball" than it is about guys simply knowing what's expected of them. Clarity is important, so they can act without thinking. Brad can fix this, and I have argued that he has started this process.

Hayward is on or ahead of schedule, despite being a recent negative talking point. Of course his explosion and confidence is a work in progress. As expected.
 

lexrageorge

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I'm partial because I grew up listening to him, but I hope he broadcasts games forever. I agree that he's lost some mph off his fastball and he doesn't offer the most compelling analysis, but listening to Tommy is like watching the game with your ornery grandfather who loves the Celtics just as much as you do and it works for me. Scal has taken some heat in the gamethreads but I think he's really solid and will be a fine heir to Tommy when Tommy decides to hang them up.
Potentially a separate thread, but I think Scal has been a work in progress, but seems to be improving. He still goes off on some bizarre tangents, but he talks over Gorman less as the years have gone on. At least that's my impression.

As the color guy, he's got difficult shoes to fill to follow in the footsteps of Tommy and Cooz and Maxwell. And looking across sports: prime Remy, Eck, Brickley, Cappelletti, and even Zolak.

I agree that Tommy can go when he wants to go, but I wouldn't be sad if he decided that this season would be his last.
 

JCizzle

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I'm partial because I grew up listening to him, but I hope he broadcasts games forever. I agree that he's lost some mph off his fastball and he doesn't offer the most compelling analysis, but listening to Tommy is like watching the game with your ornery grandfather who loves the Celtics just as much as you do and it works for me. Scal has taken some heat in the gamethreads but I think he's really solid and will be a fine heir to Tommy when Tommy decides to hang them up.
I agree with all of this 100%.
 

benhogan

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I am one hundred percent on the "too many chiefs" hypothesis that HRB advanced before the season.

I'm also worried about Hayward.
Agree. There are too many "Chiefs" (alpha scorers) on the floor at once and more "Indians" (lunch pail players) need to be mixed in to create balance.
I believe Brad will make the necessary changes and go situational with the starting unit/rotations:
1. play/start Smart with Kyrie (instead of Rozier and Jaylen).
2. play Gordon on the 2nd team to initiate the offense against the other teams 2nd unit. Which lets Jaylen and Rozier roam.
3. start MaMo at the 4 when playing smaller lineups (Toronto, Houston, etc)
4. start/play Baynes with Al at the 4 when facing a big, bulky 5 (Detroit, Mil, etc)

Hayward is doing fine. He was always going to take months to get physically/mentally comfortable on the floor. Brad probably pushed the boundaries with him to see where Gordon was at. If he hasn't improved by the All-Star game and continues to play below the rim I'd start getting "worried"
 
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Eddie Jurak

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I think it is less an issue of "too many chiefs" and more an issue of, at least for now, Hayward needs to learn how to be an indian. Some others were never chiefs but might be under the mistaken impression that they should be.

As of now, Irving and Tatum are the only chiefs, and Tatum is only one if he's not chucking up long 2s early in the clock.
 

DJnVa

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It's interesting this year that a guy we sometimes worry about getting out of the flow of the offense--Marcus Morris--seems to somehow get his shots and not disrupt things.
 

benhogan

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It's interesting this year that a guy we sometimes worry about getting out of the flow of the offense--Marcus Morris--seems to somehow get his shots and not disrupt things.
By far our most consistent player.
2018-19 darling: FGA down, 3PA up, 3P% up, REB up, FT% up.

Minutes down significantly from his Detroit days, but scoring avg similar. All in the final year of his deal, Klutch Sports will get him paid if he keeps this up. Healthier than last season plus fewer distractions from a drawn-out court case. Maybe fatherhood has matured him.
With Brad obsessed with small ball, MaMo is an important piece to the Celtics since he adds size, physicalness (grit) that was lacking with the original starting unit.

While Rozier has been a disaster, does MaMo contradict HRB's Contract Year theory?
 

Jimbodandy

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By far our most consistent player.
2018-19 darling: FGA down, 3PA up, 3P% up, REB up, FT% up.

Minutes down significantly from his Detroit days, but scoring avg similar. All in the final year of his deal, Klutch Sports will get him paid if he keeps this up. Healthier than last season plus fewer distractions from a drawn-out court case. Maybe fatherhood has matured him.
With Brad obsessed with small ball, MaMo is an important piece to the Celtics since he adds size, physicalness (grit) that was lacking with the original starting unit.

While Rozier has been a disaster, does MaMo contradict HRB's Contract Year theory?
I wouldn't say that he contradicts the theory that guys might allow their personal goals to affect the team. Rozier has decided that PPG is what he wants to project. Morris has decided to keep being Morris and has been an even better Morris than before. They're both trying to get paid, but one approach is wiser and coincidentally better for the Celtics too.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I think it is less an issue of "too many chiefs" and more an issue of, at least for now, Hayward needs to learn how to be an indian. Some others were never chiefs but might be under the mistaken impression that they should be.

As of now, Irving and Tatum are the only chiefs, and Tatum is only one if he's not chucking up long 2s early in the clock.
Hayward knows how to be an Indian as that was always his niche. In Utah, his role changed and such his numbers along with contract changed. Even if the injury never happened he was going to be less of a Chief in Boston than he ever was in Utah. What his presence does however is take touches away from other wings/guards who ARE affected in the most obvious case Jaylen but Rozier has been rushing his offense all year as well.

While Rozier has been a disaster, does MaMo contradict HRB's Contract Year theory?
Different players handle different pressures differently. I don't have data to show additional variance in a players contract year but in Rozier's case his numbers coupled with his words surely indicate he is feeling the pressure to put up numbers which seems to be affecting his game. I don't feel that this was necessary as sliding back into the role Reggie Jackson had in his contract year at OKC once RWB returned resulted in him getting paid and Rozier was in that same boat.....as was MaMo who everyone around the league viewed as a starter who would be paid as such next summer.

This game is as much mental and when your head isn't right you have some big problems competing against players whose head IS right. Some handle contract years and the headlines fantastic while others don't so I don't feel that there is any "theory" as much as that there are some players who respond to big changes in their career (such as contract year and big headlines) while others don't. This is part of ones mental makeup and why GM's do so much interviewing leading up to the draft to understand what this player is all about. Ainge passing on Fultz wasn't "luck" there was something in those interviews and other info that raised red flags.
 
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chilidawg

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Rozier is shooting slightly less and slightly worse than last year. His assist % is down but so is his already low TO %. His DRPM is slightly worse than last year. There's lots of reasons all of these things could be happening, most likely to my mind is that he's playing less, and some guys need minutes to get into their groove. Maybe it's "contract year", but good chance it's not.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Rozier is shooting slightly less and slightly worse than last year. His assist % is down but so is his already low TO %. His DRPM is slightly worse than last year. There's lots of reasons all of these things could be happening, most likely to my mind is that he's playing less, and some guys need minutes to get into their groove. Maybe it's "contract year", but good chance it's not.
He's all but begged Ainge to trade him by the deadline....publicly. Do you think it is because he want's no part of being on a potentially deep playoff contender or that he is looking out for himself and him upcoming FA? I don't feel it is difficult to read between the lines here. All his teammates understand the business.....it is why LeBron harbors no ill will towards Kyrie knowing he'd otherwise be stuck in todays Cavs situation and it is why Kyrie is always supportive of Rozier and the first to smile while congratulating him after nice plays when he comes to the bench.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Horford and Jaylen OUT tonight. I really like this if it is premeditated......have two regulars inactive each game to both keep everyone fresh and to allow for more cohesion on the floor.
 

lovegtm

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Horford and Jaylen OUT tonight. I really like this if it is premeditated......have two regulars inactive each game to both keep everyone fresh and to allow for more cohesion on the floor.
I think even one regular would do it if the regular is a scorer, but it would be a REALLY diplomatic way to handle things, while also keeping everyone fresh.

This probably falls into the "if we've thought of it, Ainge and Brad have definitely thought of it" category.
 

BigSoxFan

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I think even one regular would do it if the regular is a scorer, but it would be a REALLY diplomatic way to handle things, while also keeping everyone fresh.

This probably falls into the "if we've thought of it, Ainge and Brad have definitely thought of it" category.
There is no way a young player like Jaylen would be cool with a plan like this.
 

HomeRunBaker

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There is no way a young player like Jaylen would be cool with a plan like this.
Jaylen would be one of the primary beneficiaries as he'd be more engaged in the offense on nights when Hayward or Morris are out. Plus, he's a guy on a rookie contract who has struggled.....he doesn't have the equity to make a decision such as this.
 

BigSoxFan

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Jaylen would be one of the primary beneficiaries as he'd be more engaged in the offense on nights when Hayward or Morris are out. Plus, he's a guy on a rookie contract who has struggled.....he doesn't have the equity to make a decision such as this.
Not saying he has the equity to make a decision like this but I highly doubt he would be cool not playing when he's healthy. And I doubt his agent would be cool with it either. This isn't the Spurs resting their vets. It would be a pretty unprecedented move.

How about we just figure out a way to integrate everyone or is that deemed to be impossible? Are we going to rest guys in the playoffs too? Just figure it out and struggle through it for a bit if you need to.
 

lovegtm

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While Rozier has been a disaster, does MaMo contradict HRB's Contract Year theory?
Morris' situation is much more conducive to showcasing his best self. His agent probably told him: be Trevor Ariza, and you'll be a wealthy man.

Rozier can't impact the game as much as a switchy defender, screener, or bully against a mismatch, so it's a lot tougher to give him a simple plan to showcase his most expensive self.
 

BigSoxFan

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You just have no idea if this is true or not. Young players come in a huge variety of makeups.
I’m going to use a crazy assumption that ambitious young professional basketball players want to play when they’re healthy.

Yes, I have no way of proving it just like nobody has any way of disproving it. Even a supportive quote, which we don’t have, should be taken with a huge grain of salt.
 

DannyDarwinism

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I’m going to use a crazy assumption that ambitious young professional basketball players want to play when they’re healthy.

Yes, I have no way of proving it just like nobody has any way of disproving it. Even a supportive quote, which we don’t have, should be taken with a huge grain of salt.
Close enough:

 

Cesar Crespo

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Is it the reading or the math that you’re struggling with?
I don't follow you at all so I guess all of it. Is coming off the bench the same as not playing?

edit: I guess if you think 60 games at 30m played is the same as 70 games at 25m and the players would buy into that too.
 

DannyDarwinism

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It’s really not. Coming off bench is completely different than not playing at all.
Maybe. And maybe to Jaylen, minutes are minutes, and as long as they end up equal, he doesn’t really care how they accrue. Since I have no idea, I’ll go by what he just said in response to a question about a potential reduction in his role, even if it’s in a different form than the specific one we’re talking about.

Here’s the whole quote:

"Whatever it is that needs to be done to figure it out," Brown said, prior to Friday's game against the Cleveland Cavaliers. "Everybody has talent, everybody has ability, but, obviously, we have to make something work here. We don't want to be looking down the line and trying to figure out, 'What if?' or 'Woulda, coulda,' whatever. Whatever it is that we can make it work now, I'm totally happy with that. Winning answers everyone's questions and figures everything out. If we win, everything else will be fine."

Could be platitudes, but he sounds like a guy open to some tinkering. Maybe sitting once every six games or so is egregiously worse to him than playing 20 minutes a game for the time being, but his own words indicate otherwise.
 

BigSoxFan

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Maybe. And maybe to Jaylen, minutes are minutes, and as long as they end up equal, he doesn’t really care how they accrue. Since I have no idea, I’ll go by what he just said in response to a question about a potential reduction in his role, even if it’s in a different form than the specific one we’re talking about.

Here’s the whole quote:

"Whatever it is that needs to be done to figure it out," Brown said, prior to Friday's game against the Cleveland Cavaliers. "Everybody has talent, everybody has ability, but, obviously, we have to make something work here. We don't want to be looking down the line and trying to figure out, 'What if?' or 'Woulda, coulda,' whatever. Whatever it is that we can make it work now, I'm totally happy with that. Winning answers everyone's questions and figures everything out. If we win, everything else will be fine."

Could be platitudes, but he sounds like a guy open to some tinkering. Maybe sitting once every six games or so is egregiously worse to him than playing 20 minutes a game for the time being, but his own words indicate otherwise.
Could be and could not. He also could just be being a good teammate and believe the opposite. I also think he’s like top 2% of young players with respect to maturity.

Instead of a rotation, I’m ready to just bench Rozier every game.
 

DJnVa

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I noticed from some highlights last night that the Celtics are setting screens higher—at or outside the 3-point line. That was something pointed out in article in last week or so that they were not doing.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Tonight in Minnesota will be a real good test. I didn't take much out of last nights non-resistant shootaround but tonight should tell us a lot about whether these past few games were actual growth or the result of playing versus the defensive dregs of the league.

B2B is a good opportunity to sit 2 rotation players again to tighten the rotation. Assuming Jaylen is one I'd call for Hayward to be the other tonight. The "injury" report comes out at 1:30pm so we should at least have a hint soon if not a definitive response.
 

DJnVa

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They threw a backdoor lob to Hayward last night. That was good to see.
 

lovegtm

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Tonight in Minnesota will be a real good test. I didn't take much out of last nights non-resistant shootaround but tonight should tell us a lot about whether these past few games were actual growth or the result of playing versus the defensive dregs of the league.
The only thing I'd take out of it is that the starting unit looked a lot more decisive offensively and connected defensively in the 1st quarter than it did in a similar JV blowout win against Chicago. I'd take it as an encouraging preseason performance.