Cheesesteaks vs. Chowdah Part I - The Sixers/Celtics Series Thread

amarshal2

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I don't think the Giannis game plan makes sense for Simmons. I'm not worried about Simmons scoring, I'm worried about him facilitating for the whole team. I think you need to stay disciplined and be prepared to guard against the extra pass on the perimeter rather than collapse. Put Horford on Embiid and rotate guys (Smart/Semi/Brown when he's back) into tight coverage on Simmons.

If that's a dumpster fire, trial and error with something else. But that's what my small basketball brain would start with.
 

Jimbodandy

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I don't fully understand why he was so open so often, I can only assume gameplan, but an odd one when they have only two good options
I don't think that he was really. He didn't get a lot of open looks. There were a couple of times when rotations broke down, and he smartly used a big screener here and there. Mostly, he was burying threes with a hand in his face. It was silly.

It wasn't just the threes though. He was smart with the ball and efficient everywhere. He's tougher than I thought too. I developed a bigtime mancrush on him in the last seven games.
 

LondonSox

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I don't think that he was really. He didn't get a lot of open looks. There were a couple of times when rotations broke down, and he smartly used a big screener here and there. Mostly, he was burying threes with a hand in his face. It was silly.

It wasn't just the threes though. He was smart with the ball and efficient everywhere. He's tougher than I thought too. I developed a bigtime mancrush on him in the last seven games.
I know the new NBA data is new but they have this
Roughly 50% of his shots were open or wide open.

https://stats.nba.com/player/203114/shots-dash/

In terms of your observations, he hit one 3 in the series guarded very tight. (1/1)
He hit 3/5 guarded tight
14/20 open and 7/13 very open

This is why I don't trust people who say I watched it.
Your eyes and memory are biased and bad.

The data says he was hitting open shots, all series.

Edit the 50% is ALL shots, the rest is 3 pointers.
 

snowmanny

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It's a miracle the Celtics were able to dominate that game so completely and win so incredibly easily. I don't expect to see that again soon.
 

LondonSox

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One of those games for the sixers. Came out sluggish, shot like crap and played some awful defense.

I would wager that the Celtics won't shoot 25% better from 3 all series (20% vs 45+%)
Rozier was amazing, Tatum was great horford was great.

Sixers played like shit defensively and just shot like hell
Only positive was embiid looking better as the game went on offensively.

The main series thing was for me that I don't know how you hide Balinelli in this series.

I don't know this means that much in the tactical matchup, but it's huge for the Celtics to win without Brown.
 

LondonSox

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It's a miracle the Celtics were able to dominate that game so completely and win so incredibly easily. I don't expect to see that again soon.
I was just reading it's celtics best shooting performance of the season and for sure of of the sixers worst since they added Balinelli and ersan.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I was just reading it's celtics best shooting performance of the season and for sure of of the sixers worst since they added Balinelli and ersan.
The Celtics chased the Sixers off the three point line and let them take twos. Brad even said it during the post-first-quarter time out. I dont know if they can keep it up but that was the gameplan.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The main series thing was for me that I don't know how you hide Balinelli in this series.

I don't know this means that much in the tactical matchup, but it's huge for the Celtics to win without Brown.
posted this in the game thread but I don't think PhI can play Bellinelli and Reddick together because of defense. Which is not great for PHI because those two are the beßt offensive sidekicks for Simmons.

Will be interested in seeing what Brown dials up for PHI. Brad is basically saying, "I don't think you can score efficienþly enough inside the 3P line to beat us." Ball is in PHI court, so to speak.
 

LondonSox

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The Celtics chased the Sixers off the three point line and let them take twos. Brad even said it during the post-first-quarter time out. I dont know if they can keep it up but that was the gameplan.
They did but they still bricked open looks.
Also Celtics shooting so we'll limits transition which hurts the sixers.

Overall it's just a huge win for the Celtics without Brown but I think the majority of the adjustments are defensive. They looked bad and off
 

LondonSox

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posted this in the game thread but I don't think PhI can play Bellinelli and Reddick together because of defense. Which is not great for PHI because those two are the beßt offensive sidekicks for Simmons.

Will be interested in seeing what Brown dials up for PHI. Brad is basically saying, "I don't think you can score efficienþly enough inside the 3P line to beat us." Ball is in PHI court, so to speak.
If I was being optimistic (and I think this ignores the brown missing story) I'd say that the sixers were awful and still were a couple times a missed open three would have made it a one or two possession game.
They bricked them and then the Celtics pulled away again.

The pessimistic take is that the Celtics can repeat the defensive game plan and even some offensive regression will be offset by brown yada yada.
I don't know brown could have been much more efficient than the shooting tonight though

Tip of the cap to a fantastic performance.
Sixers didn't turn up
 

teddykgb

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Celtics got a big one but the shooting tonight makes it hard to draw conclusions. Fewer missed means less transition and a consistent 10 point lead encourages some hero ball. Celts focused on denying 3 and deserve some credit but Philly was trying to shoot their way out of a deficit all night.

I’d try to sit Jaylen again. Hamstrings are so tough to be sure about. They need to make sure he doesn’t reinjure himself and not playing Thurs means he’s at least get a full week rest
 

LondonSox

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They did, but many of those looks were pull ups in transition (aka the Antoine special that cost me at least one remote).
This isn't true in that they are almost never pull ups, they are catch and shoot due to the passing ahead. Which is better for projected shooting.

I think this basically makes it a 50/50 series
 

Devizier

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Will be interested in seeing what Brown dials up for PHI. Brad is basically saying, "I don't think you can score efficienþly enough inside the 3P line to beat us." Ball is in PHI court, so to speak.
In the future it would be feed Embiid relentlessly but he was clearly gassed in the fourth. Fortunately this isn't the future, and he's not going to suddenly build up a ton of stamina quickly unless Lance Armstrong's doctor comes around.
 

LondonSox

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Celtics got a big one but the shooting tonight makes it hard to draw conclusions. Fewer missed means less transition and a consistent 10 point lead encourages some hero ball. Celts focused on denying 3 and deserve some credit but Philly was trying to shoot their way out of a deficit all night.

I’d try to sit Jaylen again. Hamstrings are so tough to be sure about. They need to make sure he doesn’t reinjure himself and not playing Thurs means he’s at least get a full week rest
Agree with all this
I would sit brown unless 100% confident too. A lot like embiid in round 1, if they had won game 2 he might not have come back.
 

LondonSox

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In the future it would be feed Embiid relentlessly but he was clearly gassed in the fourth. Fortunately this isn't the future, and he's not going to suddenly build up a ton of stamina quickly unless Lance Armstrong's doctor comes around.
Well he couldn't exercise much during his injury due to concussion/ eye etc, so his conditioning will have been hurt it will improve but ... Yeah I agree.
 

Sam Ray Not

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In the future it would be feed Embiid relentlessly but he was clearly gassed in the fourth. Fortunately this isn't the future, and he's not going to suddenly build up a ton of stamina quickly unless Lance Armstrong's doctor comes around.
He also looks like he's carrying 20-25 lbs. he could stand to lose at his age. Scary to think how beastly he'll be if/when he gets a bit lighter, quicker, and better-conditioned.
 

LondonSox

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Yeah he has never had an offseason to get in shape etc in his career to date. It's insane to think he's only played for a few years and has had all this and still is so good.
 

deconstruction

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Philadelphia shot the 3 poorly in three of their five games against the Heat, so it's not like tonight was an anomaly. I'm sure they'll have better shooting nights like they did in the first series, but I also won't be surprised if they shoot <25% again.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Saw on interweb that Rozier, Horford and Tatum combined for 83 points. The most that Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett combined for in any game with the Celtics - regular season or playoffs - was 79.
 

southshoresoxfan

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Who has post 120#?
I would have gone under. Just like the original Cs in 7 prediction I had.

What’s the counter to “let Embiid go one on one and disrupt our motion offense” and “stay in Simmons passing lanes”?

Yes Philly will shoot better especially the role guys at home, but man. No Jaylen tonight and Philly got drubbed.

Just hate to see it really.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Saw on interweb that Rozier, Horford and Tatum combined for 83 points. The most that Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett combined for in any game with the Celtics - regular season or playoffs - was 79.
Didn't Ray go off for 50+ by himself in one playoff game? Was that the year Garnett missed the playoffs?
 

Soxfan in Fla

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I hoped they might squeak out a nail biter with both teams scoring under 100. Did not expect that short Jalen as well.

The defense was outstanding. Played it straight liked I hope they would. No double teams and stayed on the shooters. Philly did not see many open 3’s and they missed most of the few that were open.

Rozier, Tatum and Horford were were just outstanding. Smart was doing Smart things and even hitting shots. Heck, even Semi hit a 3.
 

Rustjive

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I know the new NBA data is new but they have this
FWIW, the NBA.com shot tracking data is mostly useless. I don't have any of the paid options but by all accounts they deviate significantly from Second Spectrum etc.

For a more illustrative example, NBA.com said that the Celtics shot 33 (out of 35 total) open or wide-open 3s last night. Do you feel that Philly left all the Celtics shooters open all game from 3?

Edit: Video example. NBA.com says all of Rozier's 3s were open or wide-open. But would you consider this first 3 in the video 'open'? It's not the toughest shot but the threshold for open is probably too low.
 
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Jimbodandy

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FWIW, the NBA.com shot tracking data is mostly useless. I don't have any of the paid options but by all accounts they deviate significantly from Second Spectrum etc.

For a more illustrative example, NBA.com said that the Celtics shot 33 (out of 35 total) open or wide-open 3s last night. Do you feel that Philly left all the Celtics shooters open all game from 3?

Edit: Video example. NBA.com says all of Rozier's 3s were open or wide-open. But would you consider this first 3 in the video 'open'? It's not the toughest shot but the threshold for open is probably too low.
I think "open" means "his five o'clock shadow didn't give me razor burn."
 

Cesar Crespo

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Seems like a well coached team could take advantage of the spacing issues caused by having Embiid and Simmons on the floor together. You can completely ignore Simmons beyond the arc and if Embiid has to settle for 3s, it's a good thing.
 

Jimbodandy

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I think that we shouldn't celebrate the defensive game plan too much. Sure, they kept Simmons and Embiid from doing too much damage. And the transition defense was pretty damn solid.

But it was IMO pretty damn lucky that Philly was in the midst of a rusty brickfest last night. Plenty of good looks from three, from what I saw. They won't shoot that badly again.
 

TripleOT

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FWIW, the NBA.com shot tracking data is mostly useless. I don't have any of the paid options but by all accounts they deviate significantly from Second Spectrum etc.

For a more illustrative example, NBA.com said that the Celtics shot 33 (out of 35 total) open or wide-open 3s last night. Do you feel that Philly left all the Celtics shooters open all game from 3?

Edit: Video example. NBA.com says all of Rozier's 3s were open or wide-open. But would you consider this first 3 in the video 'open'? It's not the toughest shot but the threshold for open is probably too low.
I noticed that the Sixers threes in that video were all closely contested.

Besides being on fire with his shooting, TR got teammates wide open shots. Masterful performance, one of the best all around playoff games by a Celtics PG ever.
 

deconstruction

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I think that we shouldn't celebrate the defensive game plan too much. Sure, they kept Simmons and Embiid from doing too much damage. And the transition defense was pretty damn solid.

But it was IMO pretty damn lucky that Philly was in the midst of a rusty brickfest last night. Plenty of good looks from three, from what I saw. They won't shoot that badly again.
I'm not sure it's likely they will shoot this poorly again, but have have shot 19%, 24%, and 25% in three games again the Heat, so in 4 out of 6 playoff games in they've shot poorly from three. They won two of those games against the Heat. They can and probably will shoot this poorly again.
 

LondonSox

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I'm not sure it's likely they will shoot this poorly again, but have have shot 19%, 24%, and 25% in three games again the Heat, so in 4 out of 6 playoff games in they've shot poorly from three. They won two of those games against the Heat. They can and probably will shoot this poorly again.
They may well do but they may also shoot over 50% like they did in the other two games.
It just seems like that they are just a high variation shooting team right now
But the average is still the best guess.
Edit removed some snark because I misread something and it was unnecessary on my part
 
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LondonSox

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By the way the home away splits for Rozier are pretty big, does he play differently or just more confident at home etc? For people who saw him for a larger sample

Edit: disregard as usual when I checked the narrative outside the small sample of the playoffs so far and there is not a major home away split all year. I should know better
 

Kliq

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I honestly don't find Philly's offense to be that complicated. They have talent for sure; but with Simmons' inability to shoot it limits them and Boston has great flexibility on the defensive end to force Philly into mixing it up. Philadelphia's three point shooting opens up the paint for Embiid to post up and Simmons to drive, but the Celtics are an excellent perimeter defensive team. Guys like Smart, Rozier and Larkin slip over screens used to free up Redick and Belinelli, so those guys don't space the floor as well as they did against Miami. They have enough length and hustle on their rotations so that more spot-up shooters like Saric and Covington don't have as many easy looks at the basket as they might against a less talented and poorly coached team.

Baynes did a really good job on Embiid. The strategy was to not double him in the post, and while Embiid had a good game, Baynes won enough of the battles down low to pay off risking the isos down low in favor of covering the three point shooters. The Celtics can win this series if Embiid and Simmons play really well; they can't if Philly's role players are scoring 20+ a game.

At the end of the game I thought for all their talent Philly's offense looked very basic and poorly executed. They settled for a lot of contested jumpers and tough shots in the paint; the Celtics had much better ball movement and got way better looks on offense.

Embiid looked completely lost on some defensive rotations down the stretch, including back-to-back Horford jumpers that really put the game away for Boston.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Simmons dropped from 71 to 67% FT in the playoffs with his 6-11 last night, probably regressing to the 56% he established in 340 fta in the regular season. Anecdotally, fwiw, I didn't like his release or form on most of them, and he banged a couple in that could easily have rimmed out.

He's still probably not hackable as a full-time tactic, but neither is it a great thing to have your primary ballhandler / #2 guy in USG that shaky from the FT stripe in a very evenly-matched playoff series.
 

Cesar Crespo

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By the way the home away splits for Rozier are pretty big, does he play differently or just more confident at home etc? For people who saw him for a larger sample

Edit: disregard as usual when I checked the narrative outside the small sample of the playoffs so far and there is not a major home away split all year. I should know better
He is very inconsistent though.
 

TheRooster

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I didn't see many open looks for Reddick and Belinelli and I think that will continue. The C's know how dangerous they are and seem to be deciding to concede some twos from others in the interest of shutting the sharpshooters down. If Philly wants to win the series guys like Covington, Saric and Ilyasova will need to hit some threes. Possible, but not a certainty.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I didn't see many open looks for Reddick and Belinelli and I think that will continue. The C's know how dangerous they are and seem to be deciding to concede some twos from others in the interest of shutting the sharpshooters down. If Philly wants to win the series guys like Covington, Saric and Ilyasova will need to hit some threes. Possible, but not a certainty.
One big story is that while Belinelli and Reddick had a NRtg of 19.4 in 76 minutes against the Heat (125.6 ORtg and 106.3 DRtg); last night they had a NRtg of -14.0 in 16 minutes (119.8 ORtg but 133.7 DRtg).

Brown only played his "global" lineup (Belinelli / Reddick / Saric / Illysova / Simmons) for one minute according to NBA.com and they had a DRtg of 163.4 and a NRtg of -39.8).

Will be interested in seeing Brown's adjustments on TRS.
 

Fishy1

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If Philly wants to make this work, they'll need to diversify their offense. Running guys off screens isnt getting them enough open looks and neither are postups. The former will only get more difficult with Brown coming back. The latter won't be consistently viable unless the Celtics are forced to send a double team.

I remember remarkably few times where I saw them get the Celtics defense in rotation bad enough that they got a wide open shot. That's incredible considering that you would think an Embiid-Simmons pick and roll ought to result in weakside help every time.

Am I remembering wrong?
 

JCizzle

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This seems like a pretty easy fix to implement. I guess Jaylen coming back may make it harder to take advantage of though.

 

Cesar Crespo

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He had a two month streak of scoring in double figures every game. Like most guys he has some games that are better than others, but I'd argue he's been reasonably consistent since he was put into the starting lineup.
It's his shooting that is inconsistent. One night he'll be 12-16, the next 4-15. I guess you expect a lot of 4-15 nights from a guy who shot .395 for the year tho.
 

chilidawg

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This seems like a pretty easy fix to implement. I guess Jaylen coming back may make it harder to take advantage of though.

Reddick on Tatum did indeed seem like a poor decision, especially when Smart was starting. Not knowing if Jaylen will be there for game 2 will put a bit of uncertainty in the game planning for Philly. If I were the Celtics I'd not give out anything more than "he's a game time decision". I expect Philly to come out and play with much greater intensity in Game 2, and I think we'll need Jaylen to hold them off. Brown in the lineup gives them nowhere to hide Reddick.

Winner of Game 2 goes to Philly with the series momentum.