Cheesesteaks vs. Chowdah Part I - The Sixers/Celtics Series Thread

[nighthob]

Philly's biggest issue is definitely the sheer number of poor/bad defenders that are in their rotation. I'm not sure how you scheme that problem away. And Boston has the sort of players in Tatum, Rozier, and (maybe) Brown that can exploit that weakness.

 

[InstaFace]

The concern for the Celtics since Kyrie went down is where our scoring comes from, because - Rozier being possessed by the ghost of Allen Iverson aside - our second unit has MaMo and dreck for scoring, Tatum can run hot-and-cold (as you'd expect), and the team as a whole can routinely have droughts in the 3-to-5-minute range as they get out of sync and waste possessions on low-percentage shots.

They got a good night from both Rozier and Tatum on monday and ran Philly out of the building. But we've seen what happens when the shots aren't falling, as recently as Game 6 in Milwaukee. Even if Philly isn't a great defending team, who's to say the Celtics won't beat themselves a few times? I know too little of advanced stats to know what our expectations should be, or whether we have higher variance than is typical in our TS% or whatever.

 

[Jimbodandy]

No way to measure this, but they just seemed slow to recognize and react. Some of that is surely the personnel, but some of it was likely rust, shellshock, etc. I expect better effort.

 

[RedOctober3829]

The concern for the Celtics since Kyrie went down is where our scoring comes from, because - Rozier being possessed by the ghost of Allen Iverson aside - our second unit has MaMo and dreck for scoring, Tatum can run hot-and-cold (as you'd expect), and the team as a whole can routinely have droughts in the 3-to-5-minute range as they get out of sync and waste possessions on low-percentage shots.

They got a good night from both Rozier and Tatum on monday and ran Philly out of the building. But we've seen what happens when the shots aren't falling, as recently as Game 6 in Milwaukee. Even if Philly isn't a great defending team, who's to say the Celtics won't beat themselves a few times? I know too little of advanced stats to know what our expectations should be, or whether we have higher variance than is typical in our TS% or whatever.

They need to get Embiid involved in more screen and rolls to get him out of the middle then feed the post with non-Horford guys. Make them defend both areas because they are bound to not shoot as well from the outside. Continue targeting Bellinelli defensively as well.

 

[LondonSox]

it is hard to navigate sometimes. Matchup data is here
http://stats.nba.com/game/0041700211/matchups/

Awesome thanks

I'm still waiting for someone to explain what specific defensive adjustments Philly can make going forward. What personnel do the Sixers have to cope with quick players like Rozier, Tatum and Brown? Do they play T.J. McConnell 35 minutes? Do they play zone and hope the Celtics miss their treys?

I would also point out that Tatum (1-5), Smart (2-8) and Morris (1-5) were a combined 4-17 from 3 point range in game one. It was Horford and Rozier who shot lights out. Embid did not come out to guard Horford, and no Sixer was quick enough to bother Rozier's shot, so that success is understandable. What's Philly going to do in game 2? Is Embid going to challenge Horford's shot? What are they going to do about Rozier?

In my view the Sixers simply do not defend well enough to win this series unless the Celtics gift wrap it for them.

I think it's sixers in 6 or Celtics in 7 right now we shall see, I'd put close to 50/50 which (with regard to that question I forgot to quote )

As for this, then you're not reading.

Brown is doubtful, Tatum is not a lot faster than Covington or Simmons he is than Redick, which is why EVERYONE has noted that's likely to be adjusted.
Rozier isn't getting to the rim in half court he hit threes. He shot 7/9 if he's going to hit step back 3s off the dribble at over 70% then yes it's likely the Celtics keep winning.
Covington is also long on Rozier, if does suck like last game he can bother the shot.

I love that you are counting the guys who shot a little below average in a game the team shot 50%.

You asked for answers, people gave them and then you asked again as if in disbelief anyone in the world could come up anything.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Yes, if Jaylen isn't playing, I expect that Simmons will move on Rozier and Reddick onto Smart so that Covington plays Tatum. If Simmons can quiet Rozier, that leaves a lot of the scoring burden on Tatum and Al.

As for the bench, it's the offensively-challenged Cs versus the defensively challenged PHI. Cs got the best of it but remember that Baynes hit two three-pointers (channeling the last game of the year against the Nets). If the Cs bench isn't hitting its shots, then the lack of defense provided by Belinelli and Reddick etc. won't matter as much.

BTW, speaking of Baynes, he hit his first two 3Pers of the year against TOR on March 31 (note that these were the 2nd and 3rd 3P shots of his career; he hit one in 2014-15 with SA). Since then, he's shot 7-15 from 3P land. That's pretty amazing.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

As for the bench, it's the offensively-challenged Cs versus the defensively challenged PHI. Cs got the best of it but remember that Baynes hit two three-pointers (channeling the last game of the year against the Nets). If the Cs bench isn't hitting its shots, then the lack of defense provided by Belinelli and Reddick etc. won't matter as much.

Baynes has 8 threes in his NBA career, including the 4 he has in these playoffs.

 

[Bad Penny]

I don't think Simmons can stay in front of Terry. DHO's and screens will also give him problems. Philly just doesn't match up well with the C's. Add JB to the mix and the situation compounds.

 

[chilidawg]

All the defensive adjustments in the world won't matter if Simmons and Embiid play defense with zero intensity again.

 

[Big John]

The concern for the Celtics since Kyrie went down is where our scoring comes from, because - Rozier being possessed by the ghost of Allen Iverson aside - our second unit has MaMo and dreck for scoring, Tatum can run hot-and-cold (as you'd expect), and the team as a whole can routinely have droughts in the 3-to-5-minute range as they get out of sync and waste possessions on low-percentage shots.

Yes, scoring droughts have occurred, but without doing a detailed analysis of when, and against which teams, those droughts occurred, I'm guessing that they were less frequent against teams that play lousy defense-- like the Sixers.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Sixers had the third best D-rating this year in the regular season (not far behind the Cs and Jazz) and fourth best opponents points per possession (Cs, Jazz and Spurs). If there's a case to be made that they play lousy defense, I'd be interested to hear it.

 

[Big John]

I thought they played lousy defense on Monday night, and they do not have individual defenders who can stay with Rozier and Tatum. What they did in the regular season is history.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Oh, I see. By "teams that play lousy defense- like the Sixers", you actually meant, "teams that played lousy defense on Monday night".

 

[southshoresoxfan]

I thougth the concern was more defensing Embiid and the Celts playing with a short bench.

I've still got the same concern.

Brad is not changing a thing w Embiid. Let him go one on one w Baynes in post isolations that bog down the offense and get their motion stagnant. Definitely a “let Joel get his” method, especially w Embiids shockingly poor conditioning.

3 min into the game he was hands on his knees. He has to improve that. Can blame the injuries all you want, but he’ll never reach his potential if he can’t go hard for 5min.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Sixers had the third best D-rating this year in the regular season (not far behind the Cs and Jazz) and fourth best opponents points per possession (Cs, Jazz and Spurs). If there's a case to be made that they play lousy defense, I'd be interested to hear it.

It's not a case for "lousy", but giving big minutes to Ilyasova (who looks and moves as much like Frankenstein as any living human, BTW) and Bellinelli makes them incrementally worse.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Brad is not changing a thing w Embiid. Let him go one on one w Baynes in post isolations that bog down the offense and get their motion stagnant. Definitely a “let Joel get his” method, especially w Embiids shockingly poor conditioning.

3 min into the game he was hands on his knees. He has to improve that. Can blame the injuries all you want, but he’ll never reach his potential if he can’t go hard for 5min.

For the Celtics, the biggest danger here is probably Baynes fould trouble, but there is still 6 Monroe fouls on the bench.

 

[Big John]

Oh, I see. By "teams that play lousy defense- like the Sixers", you actually meant, "teams that played lousy defense on Monday night".

Well, what they did against the Orlando Magic during the regular season is irrelevant, right?
They gave up 117 points in regulation. The Sixers are highly unlikely to win this series if the Celtics consistently score 110+.

 

[teddykgb]

Making way too much of the individual matchups. In today’s NBA every offense screens to get the matchups they want.

From a defensive perspective Philly needs to prioritize who and where they want to defend. They were not good enough at clogging the lane and challenging at the rim and probably need to let the non Horford bigs shoot 3s in order to let Embiid sag. Smart and Semis man needs to focus on help defense.

 

[the moops]

I thought they played lousy defense on Monday night, and they do not have individual defenders who can stay with Rozier and Tatum. What they did in the regular season is history.

Covington or Simmons can stay with Tatum. I agree with the Rozier thing though

 

[nighthob]

Sixers had the third best D-rating this year in the regular season (not far behind the Cs and Jazz) and fourth best opponents points per possession (Cs, Jazz and Spurs). If there's a case to be made that they play lousy defense, I'd be interested to hear it.

In fairness that regular season team had nigh on zero contributions from a couple of guys that they’re now relying on for offense. And those guys are so bad defensively that it’s making it more difficult for them to hide the defensive shortcomings of Redick, Saric, and even Amir Johnson.

 

[Devizier]

Brown only played his "global" lineup (Belinelli / Reddick / Saric / Illysova / Simmons) for one minute according to NBA.com and they had a DRtg of 163.4 and a NRtg of -39.8).

Will be interested in seeing Brown's adjustments on TRS.

They were about as effective in Rwanda, if I recall correctly.

 

[Montana Fan]

All the defensive adjustments in the world won't matter if Simmons and Embiid play defense with zero intensity again.

Well, this is the first postseason experience for both of them (including college). They're young pups who are learning.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Sixers had the third best D-rating this year in the regular season (not far behind the Cs and Jazz) and fourth best opponents points per possession (Cs, Jazz and Spurs). If there's a case to be made that they play lousy defense, I'd be interested to hear it.

Yeah, even as a Celtics fan it sounds absurd to continue listening to this BS about Philly being a poor defensive team. When the analysis becomes "Simmons can't stay in front of Rozier".......when majority of Rozier's damage came from knocking down 7-9 three's with many outside of normal halfcourt rhythm it becomes painful to follow along.

I don't know how to respond to specific adjustments for a team who layed a complete egg, looked confused as to what Boston was doing both offensively and defensively, and played with an alarmingly lackadaisical effort defensively. I suppose watching tape to recognize what we are doing on both sides of the ball and approaching Game 2 with a sense of urgency would be my primary adjustment along with changing up the matchup with Redick.

Let's not forget the mental approach of playing a shorthanded team which is very challenging for veteran teams much less those with a couple 20-year olds as their best players.

 

[reggiecleveland]

My analysis is more simple. The Celtics shot the ball so well and played o so well the 6ers never got running and had to work for their hoops. He adjustments the 6ers are able to make on d will be a factor.

This is the chess match of the playoffs, how well can Brad anticipate what they will do?

 

[Saints Rest]

Coaching and adjustments (and counter-adjustments) will be key for both sides. But I think HRB is on target here; G2 is Philly’s “we’re on to Cincinnati moment.” They need to be better in all phases but I don’t think they really need to throw the baby out with the bath water. Shoot a bit better/closer to average and this game is a lot closer

 

[HomeRunBaker]

My analysis is more simple. The Celtics shot the ball so well and played o so well the 6ers never got running and had to work for their hoops. He adjustments the 6ers are able to make on d will be a factor.

This is the chess match of the playoffs, how well can Brad anticipate what they will do?

This is bingo right here that I pointed out upthread (I believe, or on another board). The Celtics shotmaking is what shut down the Sixers delayed break where Simmons is lethal. The other part of this is that there were times when (primarily) Horford had uncontested looks which he's going to knock down more times than not so the lack of defending him did play "some" factor in the Celtics shotmaking. But Rozier I mean.....if he continues shooting 7-9 on difficult three's the Sixers will face some of the same problems in their delayed break again.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

One thing I had mentioned upthread is that the Cs must feel like shackles have been removed from them after wrestling with MIL for 7 games. Seems to me that BOS had more uncontested shots at the rim (including layups, alley-oops, and dunks) in Game 1 vs PHI than in the entirety of the series against MIL. For example, MIL had 47 blocks against the Cs (26 in games 3 & 4 alone); PHI had 2 on Monday night.

Another example is Rozier, I went back and looked at each of his 7 makes (video below). His first make - late in the shot clock over Covington - was certainly contested and the last one as well (though that might have been a heat check / late in the shot clock heave), but the other 5 were open to wide open that were in the flow of the offense. So yes, some of it was good shooting but a lot of it was poor defense, including two instances (#3 and #5) where it looked like the defender got lost on rotations and one other instance where the Sixers didn't get back on defense (#4).

#1 = 1Q 11:21 – pull-up Covington contest; shot clock = 5
#2 = 1Q 3:18 – pull up (Ilyasova nearest defender); shot clock = 21
#3 = 2Q 0:29 – catch and shoot (Covington nearest defender); shot clock = 15
#4 = 3Q 9:44 – catch and shoot (Baynes screen; Covington head turned); shot clock = 19
#5 = 4Q 9:37 – catch and shoot (Smart push after Embiid TO); shot clock = 20
#6 = 4Q 4:55 – catch and shoot (Embiid rotation); shot clock = 6
#7 = 4Q 1:56 – catch and shoot Saric contest; shot clock = 4

 

[Big John]

Only Rozier and Horford shot the ball well. And the majority of the makes were uncontested, not just Rozier's but also Horford's. Tatum, Smart and Morris were a combined 4-17 from 3 pt. range.

 

[reggiecleveland]

Only Rozier and Horford shot the ball well. And the majority of the makes were uncontested, not just Rozier's but also Horford's. Tatum, Smart and Morris were a combined 4-17 from 3 pt. range.

That is Eric Van level parsing of stats. Without Mantle and Maris the 61 Yankees only hit 123 homers. Because of those two they shot 49% from 3. Missed 1 FT. It was a great offensive performance, you are right there were a lot of open shots, they moved the ball and played well on O. Philly has to stop them, that is the end of the court that decided game 1.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Well, Smart was responsible for 1/2 those shots, going 2-8.

Speaking of Smart, Forsberg has a nice longish article on him today here: http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23387182/boston-celtics-guard-marcus-smart-putting-unique-stamp-playoffs-nba

Interesting to note, that Smart has been the worst offensive player in the playoffs by a lot. According to Forsberg, "Smart, his right shooting hand bandaged to protect his thumb, is having a cringeworthy offensive postseason since returning from injury. Of the 102 players with at least 40 possessions finished through Tuesday's games, Smart is dead last while averaging 0.592 points per play, according to Synergy Sports data. No player in the top 100 is below 0.7."

OTOH, he does things like this: in the 17 plays where Smart finished the possession guarding Simmons, the Sixers as a team went 1-12 and 0-7 from 3P land. Simmons himself went 0-1 with 0 assists.

I can see a scenario where Smart signs his restricted tender and goes for UFA next year.

 

[Jimbodandy]

That is Eric Van level parsing of stats. Without Mantle and Maris the 61 Yankees only hit 123 homers. Because of those two they shot 49% from 3. Missed 1 FT. It was a great offensive performance, you are right there were a lot of open shots, they moved the ball and played well on O. Philly has to stop them, that is the end of the court that decided game 1.

That's still more home runs than the 2017 Sox, amirite??

 

[reggiecleveland]

That's still more home runs than the 2017 Sox, amirite??

Has to be

 

[LondonSox]

Well, this is the first postseason experience for both of them (including college). They're young pups who are learning.

This is also true of Covington too. None of these guys (and Fultz) have really been a win or go home situation. Esp on the road. They are really young and in experienced in this stuff. We kind of forget.
I know this is true to some extent of the Celtics kids too, which is a reason I think I unvalued home court.

 

[jmm57]

That is Eric Van level parsing of stats. Without Mantle and Maris the 61 Yankees only hit 123 homers. Because of those two they shot 49% from 3. Missed 1 FT. It was a great offensive performance, you are right there were a lot of open shots, they moved the ball and played well on O. Philly has to stop them, that is the end of the court that decided game 1.

You’re not giving EV evough credit. His would be more like .....the Celtics shot 100% from 3 for the 17 seconds it took to release the 17 makes.

For the other 47:43 they shot 0%....they are due for some positive regression for the majority of the game.

 

[Saints Rest]

Well, Smart was responsible for 1/2 those shots, going 2-8.

Speaking of Smart, Forsberg has a nice longish article on him today here: http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23387182/boston-celtics-guard-marcus-smart-putting-unique-stamp-playoffs-nba

Interesting to note, that Smart has been the worst offensive player in the playoffs by a lot. According to Forsberg, "Smart, his right shooting hand bandaged to protect his thumb, is having a cringeworthy offensive postseason since returning from injury. Of the 102 players with at least 40 possessions finished through Tuesday's games, Smart is dead last while averaging 0.592 points per play, according to Synergy Sports data. No player in the top 100 is below 0.7."

OTOH, he does things like this: in the 17 plays where Smart finished the possession guarding Simmons, the Sixers as a team went 1-12 and 0-7 from 3P land. Simmons himself went 0-1 with 0 assists.

I can see a scenario where Smart signs his restricted tender and goes for UFA next year.

I never saw any reports or speculation on Smart and his possible re-injuring of his thumb in G1. (I wasn't in the game thread as I watched the game on DVR.) Is the guess that it was just a stinger of sorts?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Brad is not changing a thing w Embiid. Let him go one on one w Baynes in post isolations that bog down the offense and get their motion stagnant. Definitely a “let Joel get his” method, especially w Embiids shockingly poor conditioning.

3 min into the game he was hands on his knees. He has to improve that. Can blame the injuries all you want, but he’ll never reach his potential if he can’t go hard for 5min.

Embiid has always had conditioning issues, even in Kansas. A lot of it was hidden because he only played 23 minutes a night.

 

[DJnVa]

I never saw any reports or speculation on Smart and his possible re-injuring of his thumb in G1. (I wasn't in the game thread as I watched the game on DVR.) Is the guess that it was just a stinger of sorts?

What initially seemed like him reinjuring his thumb was when Embiid kicked him in the groin and he reached down and bent over. There was no thumb issue.

 

[joe dokes]

Well, Smart was responsible for 1/2 those shots, going 2-8.

Speaking of Smart, Forsberg has a nice longish article on him today here: http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23387182/boston-celtics-guard-marcus-smart-putting-unique-stamp-playoffs-nba
Interesting to note, that Smart has been the worst offensive player in the playoffs by a lot. According to Forsberg, "Smart, his right shooting hand bandaged to protect his thumb, is having a cringeworthy offensive postseason since returning from injury. Of the 102 players with at least 40 possessions finished through Tuesday's games, Smart is dead last while averaging 0.592 points per play, according to Synergy Sports data. No player in the top 100 is below 0.7."
OTOH, he does things like this: in the 17 plays where Smart finished the possession guarding Simmons, the Sixers as a team went 1-12 and 0-7 from 3P land. Simmons himself went 0-1 with 0 assists.
I can see a scenario where Smart signs his restricted tender and goes for UFA next year.

I keep coming back to Rodman as the only player I can recall in the last 30 years who seemed to have such a huge impact with such absent offense.

I'm weak on basketball metrics, so a question here. Somewhere around here there was discussion of how the offense as a whole seems to flow when Smart is on the floor, whatever his individual futility. Is that measured?

 

[DannyDarwinism]

I keep coming back to Rodman as the only player I can recall in the last 30 years who seemed to have such a huge impact with such absent offense.

I'm sure there are other bigs who would qualify, but Ben Wallace has got to be at the top of this particular list. DPoY x4, led the league in DRPM six times.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

And I remember looking at IT's season last year and wondering where it ranked on the list of biggest difference between ORPM (8.7) and DRPM (-3.3), and of the guys I looked at, Manute Bol was king. Mark Eaton was close. Obviously, it's a much different game, and neither of those guys would see the floor in the modern NBA, but they were really impactful defenders who were varying degrees of horrific on offense.

 

[chilidawg]

What initially seemed like him reinjuring his thumb was when Embiid kicked him in the groin and he reached down and bent over. There was no thumb issue.

Prior to that there was a play where he came up holding and then shaking the thumb.

 

[joe dokes]

Eaton, Wallace and Bol are all good.

Not trying to move the goalsposts, but can anyone come up with guards that fit this? Don Chaney?

 

[DannyDarwinism]

The first two that come to my mind, Bruce Bowen and Tony Allen, don't come close to the impact, as measured by DRPM, that Wallace, Eaton and Bol had, but they're pretty close to Smart.

 

[Lazy vs Crazy]

Prior to that there was a play where he came up holding and then shaking the thumb.

His splint was digging into his hand and hurting him. He's trying a different splint this game.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

, Manute Bol was king. Mark Eaton was close. Obviously, it's a much different game, and neither of those guys would see the floor in the modern NBA, but they were really impactful defenders who were varying degrees of horrific on offense.

Is that true? Guys like DeAndre Jordan are still in the league, although I guess he offers slightly more offense. Dikembe Mutumbo would still be starting.

 

[LondonSox]

What initially seemed like him reinjuring his thumb was when Embiid kicked him in the groin and he reached down and bent over. There was no thumb issue.

He got kicked in the hand after horford pushed him into embiid
Was shaking his hand after that, before the nut shot, and then had a new (bigger) wrap after half time.

The nut shot just confused matters as he doubled in pain and it seemed like he was grabbing his hand.

Seems like something was up, but lack of attention suggests nothing big I guess.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Eaton, Wallace and Bol are all good.

Not trying to move the goalsposts, but can anyone come up with guards that fit this? Don Chaney?

Nate McMillan?

 

[chilidawg]

This article points out stats that show the Sixers got better quality shots than the Celtics in game 1, but it sure didn't seem that way to me watching the game. I had just the opposite reaction watching, and it was one of the reasons I'm optimistic for game 2. Anyone else see it that way?

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23388997/why-philadelphia-76ers-better-shape-think-boston-celtics

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Is that true? Guys like DeAndre Jordan are still in the league, although I guess he offers slightly more offense. Dikembe Mutumbo would still be starting.

Wallace, absolutely, but I don't think there's a chance that immobile bigs who never stray from the restricted area like Eaton and Bol would get big minutes in today's NBA. They weren't nearly as athletic as DeAndre Jordan. They just kill spacing on offense and become a match-up liability on defense against teams that can shoot. We just saw Hassan Whiteside get played off the court in the playoffs.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Wallace, absolutely, but I don't think there's a chance that immobile bigs who never stray from the restricted area like Eaton and Bol would get big minutes in today's NBA. They weren't nearly as athletic as DeAndre Jordan. They just kill spacing on offense and become a match-up liability on defense against teams that can shoot. We just saw Hassan Whiteside get played off the court in the playoffs.

Fair enough but Manute Bol never really got big minutes to begin with. Mark Eaton is another story.