Kopech cut his off, actually.The only thing in common between Kopech and Syndergaard is the hair.
NY Times does a lenghty feature on KopechThe only thing in common between Kopech and Syndergaard is the hair.
Fake news.NY Times does a lenghty feature on Kopech
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/17/sports/baseball/white-sox-michael-kopech-lucas-giolito.html?rref=collection/sectioncollection/sports&action=click&contentCollection=sports®ion=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=5&pgtype=sectionfront&_r=0
Kopech first reached 90 m.p.h. when he was 14. He hit 105 for Class A Salem last year, and last month fired a lighter ball at 110, taking a few steps and releasing it from perhaps 40 feet away. Major League Baseball eagerly promoted a clip of the feat on its official website.
Noah Syndergaard, the Mets’ hulking 6-foot-6 right-hander, has the hardest average fastball of any starter, at 98 m.p.h. Kopech is not as tall, but he is imposing, at 6-3, with a background similar to Syndergaard’s: a former first-round pick from Texas with blond hair who was traded before reaching Class AA.
"It's been great. Everybody here's been awesome," Sale said. "Staff, top to bottom, players, everybody, very welcoming. There's definitely an energy in here, there's a buzz, and there's an expectation level that needs to be met on a daily basis, which is awesome to see."
Probability? The guy got suspended early last year. Don't see him as high probability compared to similar prospects.From Law's chat:
"if you could start a team around one minor league player with no mlb experience, who would be the first one or two that come to mind? Who do you see with superstar potential..with no mlb experience. Thx for your time
Klaw: I put Kopech where I did for that reason – on the pitcher side, he’s got the best combination of upside (ace, maybe top 5 in baseball kind of starter) and probability (there’s a lot already in place)."
I haven't seen any research on this, but I have no reason to think that a suspension while in the low minors has a negative impact on probability of reaching the majors. The reality is, if a player is good enough, teams will not hold them back due to behavioral issues, especially ones a year or more ago. Team can always say 'X learned his lesson and has worked hard to move on" or whatever.Probability? The guy got suspended early last year. Don't see him as high probability compared to similar prospects.
At least the Red Sox got more back than an aging knuckleballer.Noah Syndergaard, the Mets’ hulking 6-foot-6 right-hander, has the hardest average fastball of any starter, at 98 m.p.h. Kopech is not as tall, but he is imposing, at 6-3, with a background similar to Syndergaard’s: a former first-round pick from Texas with blond hair who was traded before reaching Class AA.
I think you raise a good point, but something that surely must be factored in is an organizational change: was there a pattern of behavior and what happened last year was a culmination/apex/symptom? Was it one-off?I haven't seen any research on this, but I have no reason to think that a suspension while in the low minors has a negative impact on probability of reaching the majors. The reality is, if a player is good enough, teams will not hold them back due to behavioral issues, especially ones a year or more ago. Team can always say 'X learned his lesson and has worked hard to move on" or whatever.
It sounds cynical, but I think his leash will be directly correlated to his walk rate, that is to say on-field performance. Look at Odor, or Delmon Young, or any other player with a history of/reputation for hot-headedness. If you can help the team win, there is little chance of them holding you back for behavioral reasons.I think you raise a good point, but something that surely must be factored in is an organizational change: was there a pattern of behavior and what happened last year was a culmination/apex/symptom? Was it one-off?
If it is a symptom (even the worst one), will the White Sox see it themselves, and start from scratch on the length of his leash -- or will they be less tolerant/watchful?
No he didn't. He was out with a broken hand. His suspension was in 2015. That's not to say the broken hand (from punching his roommate in the face) isn't concerning but it didn't appear to slow down his development much and he said and did all the right things publicly in the aftermath.Probability? The guy got suspended early last year. Don't see him as high probability compared to similar prospects.
I dunno, Marciano ended up a lawyer.I guess the questions I would ask is: How many of us have punched somebody in the face? How many of us turned out alright?
Gonna agree on the walk rate, though of course there are some other stats that would show concentration/behavioral/sheer mechanical issues. The length of his leash: what is the balance of his progressing (unless you see him as a 2017/2018 MLBer) vs. any behavioral issues, and how are they intertwined. I doubt they would release unless he committed some awful crime, but if he's letting some kind of hotheadedness get into his game, and he's pulling the pitchers equivalent of a Delmon Young swing, he's not going to be progressing. So, at the first sign of trouble, do they reign him in, and lose a few month of development, while he works things out with Crian Cannister. I don't really see this happening (I'm actually a big fan of his stuff), but you wonder how an organization very much unlike ours handles these kinds of things. I mean... this is the former employer of Drake LaRoche.It sounds cynical, but I think his leash will be directly correlated to his walk rate, that is to say on-field performance. Look at Odor, or Delmon Young, or any other player with a history of/reputation for hot-headedness. If you can help the team win, there is little chance of them holding you back for behavioral reasons.
I mean, sure, if he does something to get suspended again, that will obviously cost him some development time, but when you talk about the length of his leash, what does that imply? That if he acts up they will release a top-20 prospect in all of baseball? Trade for pennies on the dollar the centerpiece of their deal in which they gave up one of the most valued assets in the game? Unless/until it affects his on-field performance, his leash is effectively infinite.
Yeah, that was well after I had been a highly touted prospect, so no correlation for me.I guess the questions I would ask is: How many of us have punched somebody in the face? How many of us turned out alright?
Clearly the kid is screwed then. Probably screwing a crazy chick too.I dunno, Marciano ended up a lawyer.
A cautionary tale if ever there was one...I dunno, Marciano ended up a lawyer.
Seems Cameron agrees:From Law's chat:
"if you could start a team around one minor league player with no mlb experience, who would be the first one or two that come to mind? Who do you see with superstar potential..with no mlb experience. Thx for your time
Klaw: I put Kopech where I did for that reason – on the pitcher side, he’s got the best combination of upside (ace, maybe top 5 in baseball kind of starter) and probability (there’s a lot already in place)."
http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/18975183/chicago-white-sox-prospect-yoan-moncada-prepping-major-league-debut. . . at first Moncada was devastated. He had barely made it to the major leagues in Boston, playing during a handful of games with the Red Sox last September, but he had imagined spending his career there . . . "It's fair to say that Yoan took it as a very personal rejection."
To be clear, this is swings and misses on pitches inside the strike zone. In total he had 21 swings and misses.Sale's 15 swings and misses are the most by a Red Sox in 10 years.
It's really wonderful to watch. And a huge difference from some of the starters the Sox have had in recent years. (Lester, Clay)I love watching Sale pitch. His pace is tremendous. He is waiting for the batter on every pitch.
Buehrle was still with the White Sox when Sale was just getting started. I wonder if he learned this from him or if he pitched like this in college.It's really wonderful to watch. And a huge difference from some of the starters the Sox have had in recent years. (Lester, Clay)
The speed of game factor not only charms spectators; it enhances the contrast among his three pitch types.It's really wonderful to watch. And a huge difference from some of the starters the Sox have had in recent years. (Lester, Clay)
I thought about this yesterday. It must seem a bit disorientating to hitters and really speed the game up in anxious way, particularly as a contrast to most pitchers. I wrote this entire minor point in between Joe Kelly pitches.The speed of game factor not only charms spectators; it enhances the contrast among his three pitch types.
This, man. I'd watched a few of his games, but holy cow is this guy great. Quick worker, nasty stuff, surly attitude. Prep that RF facade space, IMO.Dear Chris Sale - I apologize. I knew you were good, but I had no idea how frickin' awesome you are. Thanks for today - looking forward to years more of the same!
I know it's crazy early, but I was thinking the same thing during his last start. I think it's the combination of skill and pace that I can't get enough of.What a huge acquisition, without him the Sox would be a train wreck right now. I haven't enjoyed watching a pitcher as much as Sale since Pedro.
SSS and all but this is a nice start.What a huge acquisition, without him the Sox would be a train wreck right now. I haven't enjoyed watching a pitcher as much as Sale since Pedro.
He's allowed 3 runs in 29.2 innings. In the same span, they've scored 4 runs for him. It's remarkable.He's had terrible run support. I know it's only four starts now, but has anyone had worse run support in their first four starts? He should be 4-0.
Edited to reflect 4 starts now not 3.
Yes.If Sale were to continue at his present pace he would end up with 32 starts and an 8 and 8 record with a 0.91 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP. He also would be on pace to pitch 237.1 innings, striking out 339.8 batters while allowing 46.5 walks and 8.1 HR.
Would he get the Cy Young Award?
At that point, shouldn't the question be would he win MVP? I honestly think he'd might win even at 8-8. A 0.91 era? 340K?If Sale were to continue at his present pace he would end up with 32 starts and an 8 and 8 record with a 0.91 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP. He also would be on pace to pitch 237.1 innings, striking out 339.8 batters while allowing 46.5 walks and 8.1 HR.
Would he get the Cy Young Award?
Pedro seemed to get reasonable run support overall in his Red Sox tenure. Doesn't mean there weren't stretches where he was getting Sale like support.It seems like Sale is also matching Pedro is shitty run support in games he pitches. I'm not sure how much a look into Pedro's run support per game would actually bear this out, but it felt like every time I had a chance to catch him pitching (radio, telly... only once live) he either lost the game 0-1 or didn't get the W for the team scoring winning runs after he came out. Always drove me insane....