AFC Championship: Patriots vs Steelers, the buildup

TheoShmeo

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I don't think there was any smack talk in what Bell said. He followed up, paraphrasing, "we feel like we can beat anyone" with "it will take our best game, it will take better than our A game to beat NE".
The "as mild as it was" qualifier was used to convey that it is well understood that the Bell comment was not jarring. And true, he did add that last sentence.

Maybe "smack" was the wrong word. The point was and remains that the coach said to say nothing and then Bell said a more than nothing. Having lived with the Stepford Patriots all these years, I just found that he said anything of that nature immediately after Tomlin's comment to be a little unusual.
 

brandonchristensen

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Would have been great had the FB live feed been going on and Big Ben walked out of the shower, fully nude in the BG.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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I'm definitely seeing a narrative pop up where "the Pats didn't play anybody," while the Steelers are "battle tested."

I'm sorry, but that's absurd.

The Steelers winning streak is:

Browns (second worst team of the century)
Colts (awful)
Giants (wild card team)
Bills (definition of mediocrity)
Bengals (terrible)
Ravens (eh)
Browns (second worst team of the century)
Dolphins (Matt Moore FTW)
Chiefs (backed into a 2 seed when Oakland fell apart)

Pats current winning streak is:

Niners (sucky)
Jets (pretty sucky)
Rams (sucky)
Ravens (eh)
Broncos (maybe best team not to make the playoffs)
Jets (pretty sucky)
Dolphins (Matt Moore FTW)
Texans (wild card team)

So, essentially, the Steelers played KC and the Pats played Denver, and they both won.

Basically, it's the same exact schedule.

And the Pats scored 27.9 PPG, and the Steelers scored 24.9 PPG.

While the Pats allowed 15.6 PPG, and the Steelers allowed 19.7 PPG.

The Patriots are a deeper, better coached team with a better quarterback at the helm. They are and should be favored. If they lose, it will be, and should be, a surprise.
 

koufax32

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If these teams played 10x on a neutral field how would the games turn out?
I think NE wins 6 or 7.


In their last 11 games (all with BR, chosen because the week before was their bye and he was out before that) they have topped 30 points three times and those were 30, 30, and 31. For all the explosiveness they seem to top out around 27-28 points. They really only had one explosive game very early on. Because of the opponent, road conditions and BR's work there, plus generally more liberal refereeing in playoffs I don't think they get to 30.
NE has topped 30 in six of their last 11. I don't think it's reasonable to expect them to go off for 40+ but 30 is very reasonable.
I think it will come down to the team that scores 30 wins. I have more faith in NE to do that.
 
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Captaincoop

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I'm definitely seeing a narrative pop up where "the Pats didn't play anybody," while the Steelers are "battle tested."

I'm sorry, but that's absurd.

The Steelers winning streak is:

Browns (second worst team of the century)
Colts (awful)
Giants (wild card team)
Bills (definition of mediocrity)
Bengals (terrible)
Ravens (eh)
Browns (second worst team of the century)
Dolphins (Matt Moore FTW)
Chiefs (backed into a 2 seed when Oakland fell apart)

Pats current winning streak is:

Niners (sucky)
Jets (pretty sucky)
Rams (sucky)
Ravens (eh)
Broncos (maybe best team not to make the playoffs)
Jets (pretty sucky)
Dolphins (Matt Moore FTW)
Texans (wild card team)

So, essentially, the Steelers played KC and the Pats played Denver, and they both won.

Basically, it's the same exact schedule.

And the Pats scored 27.9 PPG, and the Steelers scored 24.9 PPG.

While the Pats allowed 15.6 PPG, and the Steelers allowed 19.7 PPG.

The Patriots are a deeper, better coached team with a better quarterback at the helm. They are and should be favored. If they lose, it will be, and should be, a surprise.
Amen to all of this.
 

dcmissle

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Massive lol at
I'd say 8 out of 10.

I'm genuinely stunned that the Pats are only 5.5-point favorites. I expected 9 or 10.
If you are making book and getting a decent amount of action on Pittsburgh, you're probably happy to write these tickets all day long. The line will adjust, and reportedly has done so.

Recency at work, I think. Pats beat the line but didn't "look" particularly good Saturday night. That's not surprising because even the depleted Houston defense was underrated IMO. Mentally, people are substituting Ben for Osweiler and assuming Brady will be beaten about to the same degree. Among the things overlooked -- Pittsburgh can be run on, and if they totally sell out to stop it, look out.
 

ObstructedView

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I'm definitely seeing a narrative pop up where "the Pats didn't play anybody," while the Steelers are "battle tested."
I think this is due in part to the tendency by some to be overly influenced by the success of non-bye teams. By definition, anyone the Pats could face at this point would be on a postseason winning streak. The Steelers have now won two playoff games, including a road game against a fashionable favorite, while the Pats were off the radar before turning in a supposedly unconvincing (18-point!) victory over a historic underdog. In short, there's more of a postseason narrative for Pittsburgh -- and it feeds into the whole myth of the tough-guy Steelers and their warrior QB.
 

wiffleballhero

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In the simulacrum
I second/third Tom Gordon's Love Daughter's (or whatever) read of all of this.

Pittsburgh looks great and all, but they played a pretty soft schedule on this long run of awesome and before that they lost some games where a 'great' team would have won.

Who knows? Trying to project how seriously good Pittsburgh is seems like a massive exercise in SSS and selective opponents.

The only thing I am confident about is that at around 11 pm Sunday night Malcolm Butler will be getting some heavy mentions on SOSH.
 

BaseballJones

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Massive lol at


If you are making book and getting a decent amount of action on Pittsburgh, you're probably happy to write these tickets all day long. The line will adjust, and reportedly has done so.

Recency at work, I think. Pats beat the line but didn't "look" particularly good Saturday night. That's not surprising because even the depleted Houston defense was underrated IMO. Mentally, people are substituting Ben for Osweiler and assuming Brady will be beaten about to the same degree. Among the things overlooked -- Pittsburgh can be run on, and if they totally sell out to stop it, look out.
I hear what you're saying, but I don't quite understand how it works. The Patriots beat their opponent by 18 points. The Steelers didn't score a touchdown and beat their opponent by 2 when their opponent was called for a holding penalty after a successful 2-point conversion that had just tied the game in the waning moments.
 

Soxy

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I hear what you're saying, but I don't quite understand how it works. The Patriots beat their opponent by 18 points. The Steelers didn't score a touchdown and beat their opponent by 2 when their opponent was called for a holding penalty after a successful 2-point conversion that had just tied the game in the waning moments.
That's not really the full story though. The Patriots were nip and tuck with a 16 point road underdog through 3+ quarters. The Steelers moved the ball at will and pretty much dominated a KC team playing at home. (Between the 20's, at least.) At the end of the day that needs to be balanced out by the fact that the Patriots did, in fact, win by 18 and the Steelers did, in fact, not score a touchdown. But the narrative is more complex than the final score.

The reality is that both teams need to play better offensively on Sunday if they want to advance. I don't care how many yards of offense you rack up, field goals ain't gonna win you an AFC title as a road team in Foxboro. And the Pats can't expect to get away with as many mistakes as they made against Houston when facing a team as talented as Pittsburgh.

I'm expecting a close, hard fought game with the team that makes the fewest mistakes advancing to Houston. Hardly groundbreaking analysis, but there you go. As much I would love to see a Pats romp, and given the history between these two teams that seems far more likely than a Steelers romp, I fully expect to be sweating bullets and years of my life being taken from me come Sunday.
 

dcmissle

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I hear what you're saying, but I don't quite understand how it works. The Patriots beat their opponent by 18 points. The Steelers didn't score a touchdown and beat their opponent by 2 when their opponent was called for a holding penalty after a successful 2-point conversion that had just tied the game in the waning moments.
See Stich and others for gaming expertise, but this is the way I think it works.

It is a myth that the gambling houses try to even out money on both sides. They will hedge risk, of course, but if they see an inefficiency -- or can create one -- they will attempt to exploit it. I suspect the lines are set with that in mind, and adjusted according to how the action develops.

John Q somebody watching the two games this past weekend will note the Pats 3-quarter "struggle" in the context of an enormous line. They will note also the Steelers running up and down field and write off the TD drought to randomness. In that context a 6-point line may feel generous enough to prompt a Steeler bet.

So we're not talking about a prognostication by the oddsmakers of how the game will turn out, or even how reasonable bettors should believe the game will turn out. Rather, "if we set the line here based on the what unfolded this past weekend, can we create and maintain an edge based on our understanding of the game and likely bettor reaction?"

Or so I'm informed. For whatever it may be worth, somebody posted in one of the threads last night that the betting establishments took a hit this past weekend, so nobody is perfect.
 

soxin6

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That's not really the full story though. The Patriots were nip and tuck with a 16 point road underdog through 3+ quarters. The Steelers moved the ball at will and pretty much dominated a KC team playing at home. (Between the 20's, at least.) At the end of the day that needs to be balanced out by the fact that the Patriots did, in fact, win by 18 and the Steelers did, in fact, not score a touchdown. But the narrative is more complex than the final score.
The narrative of the Patriots game isn't exactly the way that you have made it sound. The Texans offense was not really able to move the ball effectively against the Patriots defense. Nearly all of the Texans points were a result of Patriots unforced errors (penalties or turnovers). Once the Patriots stopped making those errors, they won the game going away.

That doesn't change the fact that the Pats need to play better than they did versus the Texans, but the game was never really nip and tuck because the Texans offense was never going to be able to win that game.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Texans at one point were 1-16 on 3rd down, and then converted their last two, I believe. Regardless, 3-16 on 3rd down is bad offense, for sure, but the Pats D had at least something to do with that.

The Pats ran 1 more play, and gained 92 more yards.

Turnovers were even.

For sure, the stadium was nervous at 14-13. No doubt about it. And when they didn't punch it in at the end of the half (I still can't figure how Develin wasn't in), and then didn't score to start the 2nd, there was definitely some consternation.

But, looking at it rationally, the game was never really in doubt. Texans could never move the ball.
 

southshoresoxfan

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Dug up Ben's numbers since returning from injury. Hes at 65% comp, avg 250 yards per game, 15 tds to 10ints with a 91 rating.

Vs the Colts he was 3 tds 0ints with a 148 rating. Back that game out and hes a very pedestrian 63% 12 tds to 10 ints with an 83 rating.

Bill is going to flood the box with people to contain Bell and pressure Ben. I think we'll see a healthy dose of Butler on Brown with Mccourty deep to prevent a deep play.

Key will be not shooting self in foot on offense early, and eliminate the threat of Bell running by building a lead.

For all we hear of the Pitt O, they have been bad in the red zone and not as effective as one would think throwing the ball (esp considering the SOS outlined above)

Should be a comfortable win for NE. And this isn't even accounting for past performances for Brady vs Pitt defenses, which since 07 has been godlike.
 

InstaFace

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A quick note regarding the Steelers' offensive performance vs KC. Much was made of the fact that they got 6 FGs. A more normalized way to look at it might be:

- They had 5 red zone possessions (= 4 FGs and one INT in the endzone). Their other two FGs had a LOS of the KC 27 and 25 respectively.
- On the year, although this stat is not highly correlated with team success*, PIT averaged 4.88 points per RZ possession. This put them 13th in the league.
- So you would have expected them to score 24.4 points with those 5 possessions, and instead they scored 15.
- Meanwhile, KC only reached the red zone twice, and got two TDs out of it. All their other drives were < 30 yards, including their 16-yard drive from PIT's 46 to their 30 for their FG.
- Doing this from the other direction: PIT was 2nd in the league in red zone defense, at 4.19 points/RZ possession allowed (NYG was first). KC was 4th, at 4.34.
- ...so you would have expected KC to yield 21.7 points, so their 15 was an overperformance of nearly a TD. Meanwhile, KC's offense overperformed the PIT D's average, getting 13 points in the RZ when you would have expected 8.4.

With average redzone luck, i.e. averaging the expectations from the season, KC would score ~6.5 less and PIT would score ~8 more, meaning you can add two TDs to the final margin. The game was closer to a blowout in favor of Pittsburgh than it was an evenly-matched slugfest.

* It does generally correlate to things like Drive Success Rate and DVOA, just weakly so. NE was 7th at 5.23 Pts/RZ, behind TEN (!), DAL, SF (!), NO, BUF, and ATL. KC, at 4.33, was 30th. NYJ were last at 3.69 Pts/RZ.
 

mauf

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If you are making book and getting a decent amount of action on Pittsburgh, you're probably happy to write these tickets all day long. The line will adjust, and reportedly has done so.

Recency at work, I think. Pats beat the line but didn't "look" particularly good Saturday night. That's not surprising because even the depleted Houston defense was underrated IMO. Mentally, people are substituting Ben for Osweiler and assuming Brady will be beaten about to the same degree. Among the things overlooked -- Pittsburgh can be run on, and if they totally sell out to stop it, look out.
VegasInsider.com still has spreads at 5.5 or 6 points at all the casinos they cover -- same as yesterday. Not sure if there's a lot of fan money in the early action (most of the country will be rooting against the Pats), or if the gambling community sees this matchup differently than you and I do.

Edit: Steelers' money line ranges from +190 to +210, so accounting for the vig, Vegas is saying the Pats have a 70-75% chance to win. That seems low too.
 

Stitch01

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Public money on Pittsburgh, pro money on NE is what I heard (and GB/Atl respectively in the other game, weird to see pro money on the two favorites)

I was a little surprised to hear that given the Pats have been an autocash this year.
 

Curt S Loew

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The narrative of the Patriots game isn't exactly the way that you have made it sound. The Texans offense was not really able to move the ball effectively against the Patriots defense. Nearly all of the Texans points were a result of Patriots unforced errors (penalties or turnovers). Once the Patriots stopped making those errors, they won the game going away.

That doesn't change the fact that the Pats need to play better than they did versus the Texans, but the game was never really nip and tuck because the Texans offense was never going to be able to win that game.
This is correct. I remember saying when the Pats got to 24 pts the game was over as long as we STOP TURNING THE BALL OVER! Texans weren't scoring over 24 pts.
 

bsj

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I have long been a Tomlin defender. But the shit he said in the locker room. I mean is it a big deal? Not really. But is is something? Is it something that can be used for motivation? Yes.

I don't think its a huge deal...but it does underscore the massive coaching disparity.
 

RedOctober3829

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I have long been a Tomlin defender. But the shit he said in the locker room. I mean is it a big deal? Not really. But is is something? Is it something that can be used for motivation? Yes.

I don't think its a huge deal...but it does underscore the massive coaching disparity.
Coaches say similar or worse things in the confines of a private locker room. Tomlin didn't know he was being filmed so I don't think any less of him. But the things he was complaining about are kind of petty.
 

Silverdude2167

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Coaches say similar or worse things in the confines of a private locker room. Tomlin didn't know he was being filmed so I don't think any less of him. But the things he was complaining about are kind of petty.
It's the Pittsburgh way. Talk about how tough you are, then complain about little things that are "unfair".
Ben adds his unique twist to it, make sure everyone knows how tough you are because you have an owie somewhere.
 
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joe dokes

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Coaches say similar or worse things in the confines of a private locker room. Tomlin didn't know he was being filmed so I don't think any less of him. But the things he was complaining about are kind of petty.
That's my take as well. Is putting an excuse out front like that really what he thought would be effective motivation? "Everyone thinks we suck" is not the same as "the deck has been stacked against us."
 

m0ckduck

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So, how good is the Steelers' pass rush really at this point in the season?

My impression had been that it was basically DOA until the emergence of Bud Dupree — operating in concert with Harrison — upgraded it from 'virtually nonexistent' to 'decent'. Head over to espn, though, and you'll read that "Pittsburgh's pass rush has been as good as any in the league since October." Hunh? I'm assuming there's a good deal of hyperbole here, but would be interested in hearing from somebody who's watched more of the Steelers games than I have.

The Texans' tactic of lining up athletic pass rushers over Andrews at center was effective enough that I'm sure Pittsburgh will look to replicate it. But, it cuts both ways, in that NE will be focussed on plugging that hole this week (putting the EXTRA DAY of preparation that they stole to good use). Maybe it's a net positive that this tactic was exposed by a team that didn't have enough offense to really threaten the Pats.
 

Kliq

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Roger makes $35 million a year an he is afraid to go to an NFL Stadium.
 

NYCSox

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I'm not sure why ESPN used October as the starting point. I'd say it started after the bye week (week 9 - Nov 6) and picked up steam once Dupree returned. There was the monster 8 sack game against the Browns so that's an outlier but they also had success against the Cowboys and the Giants (despite Manning's usual get away with grounding three or four times nonsense).
 

NortheasternPJ

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I give Tomlin credit for how he's handling it.

Apologizing for the language in it, not worried about NE bulletin board material, Brown was a dumbass and selfish, violated team and league policy and will be punished internally and probably by the NFL. He knows better.

I wish Tomlin didn't constantly yell at everyone.
 

Saints Rest

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So, how good is the Steelers' pass rush really at this point in the season?

My impression had been that it was basically DOA until the emergence of Bud Dupree — operating in concert with Harrison — upgraded it from 'virtually nonexistent' to 'decent'. Head over to espn, though, and you'll read that "Pittsburgh's pass rush has been as good as any in the league since October." Hunh? I'm assuming there's a good deal of hyperbole here, but would be interested in hearing from somebody who's watched more of the Steelers games than I have.

The Texans' tactic of lining up athletic pass rushers over Andrews at center was effective enough that I'm sure Pittsburgh will look to replicate it. But, it cuts both ways, in that NE will be focussed on plugging that hole this week (putting the EXTRA DAY of preparation that they stole to good use). Maybe it's a net positive that this tactic was exposed by a team that didn't have enough offense to really threaten the Pats.
I'd love to see the ITP guys take a look at this. We all saw the success that Houston had with Clowney and Mercilus shooting the A gaps, using their quickness to overwhelm Andrews. But what did the Pats do to counter it as it seemed like it worked gangbusters for a couple of series and then disappeared? Was it, as Simms suggested, a change in the blocking assignments to work from center out? Or was it something else, perhaps in the play-calling? Or did Houston simply change tactics which would make no sense, but stranger things have happened (cf. "Malcolm, GO!")
 

eustis22

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Huh. No one has mentioned what I would think is a major key and something that's bothered me since saturday: what if Brady has another bad game?
 

JokersWildJIMED

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Huh. No one has mentioned what I would think is a major key and something that's bothered me since saturday: what if Brady has another bad game?
They lose, however, Brady's game was a direct result of Houston's defense, which is the best in the league and played like it. Pittsburgh's D is good, but nowhere near Houston's.
 

Stitch01

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Maybe they lose. He played like dogshit against the Ravens in the '11 title game on a team that relied more on Brady than this one does and they still won the game.
 

steveluck7

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I give Tomlin credit for how he's handling it.

Apologizing for the language in it, not worried about NE bulletin board material, Brown was a dumbass and selfish, violated team and league policy and will be punished internally and probably by the NFL. He knows better.

I wish Tomlin didn't constantly yell at everyone.
For the most part, I agree. My only issue is that he said all that about Brown and then mentioned that he hadn't spoken to him yet. Seems like he probably should have talked to Brown before calling him immature and selfish in a press conference.
 

tims4wins

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Lots of talk about the Steelers pass rush. But how is their run D? I know LGBT gashed them (24 for 127, 2 TDs) in the first matchup. I know Cleveland ran all over them - over 230 yards, 7 YPC.
 

BigSoxFan

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Maybe they lose. He played like dogshit against the Ravens in the '11 title game on a team that relied more on Brady than this one does and they still won the game.
He also had a real poor game in the 2007 AFCCG against SD that nobody really remembers. And against SD in the Div Round the year before. This team can survive a bad game from Brady if the defense shows up. The good news is that it's VERY difficult to beat the Pats if Brady brings his A game, which could easily happen if the OL protects him.
 

bakahump

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I know this is a Pats board and we are predisposed to look at this from a Pats perspective. Sometimes positive but often negatively.
"What if Brady has a Bad Game"
"What if the OL cant Stand up"
"What if the Defense has a bad game"

At the end of the day though Pitts has the same questions.
"Can Ben and the O score 25ish pts"?
"Can the D stop the Pats"?
"Can the overcome the Pats HFA and extra few hours of prep and rest"?
"Who will step up as a 3rd option to B+B"?
"Can the Steelers score in the redzone now that that "weakness" has been exposed"

We then say things like "The Pats need to play a great game or they lose".
Well the Steelers need to play a "best of season game" to win. And thats if the Pats play a "normal" game.
If they play the game many of us are saying is "needed" then there is no way the Steelers can win. Which is the trap. We as fans tend to look at "how can they not possibly lose" and transpose that into "thats what they need to do to win".

If both teams play their 50% probability then the Pats win this 31-20 or something.
Bottom line the Pats have more room for error.
 

m0ckduck

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Well that's what I'm worried about way more than brown or bell​
I'm not.

I would be concerned if he was bouncing balls and missing receivers— if there was evidence of something wrong with his throwing mechanics. He had a good deep ball on Saturday and generally seemed on-target. A lot of his incompletions were directly attributable to the Houston D, throwing the ball away under pressure. The first INT was partly his fault, partly Floyd's, partly unlucky random bounce. The second INT was bad. But he looked a lot better imo than the stat line suggested.
 

koufax32

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Where can one find pass rush statistics? I want to know how blitz-heavy Pittsburgh's defense is compared to years past. Their sack and hurry totals mean nothing to me they they are all happening with 5-6 rushers.
 

BaseballJones

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Steelers' offense since the bye week:

at Bal: 14 points, 277 yards
vs Dal: 30 points, 448 yards
at Cle: 24 points, 313 yards
at Ind: 28 points, 369 yards
vs NYG: 24 points, 389 yards
at Buf: 27 points, 460 yards
at Cin: 24 points, 382 yards
vs Bal: 31 points, 406 yards
vs Cle: 27 points, 312 yards
vs Mia: 30 points, 367 yards
at KC: 18 points, 389 yards

AVG: 25.2 points, 373.8 yards

HOME AVG: 28.4 points, 384.4 yards
ROAD AVG: 22.5 points, 365.0 yards

Those are somewhat considerable differences - they have scored 6 points a game fewer on average on the road over that span.

Over the same calendar time frame, the Pats have played 9 games. Here's what their offense has done:

vs Sea: 24 points, 385 yards
at SF: 30 points, 444 yards
at NYJ: 22 points, 377 yards
vs LA: 26 points, 402 yards
vs Bal: 30 points, 496 yards
at Den: 16 points, 313 yards
vs NYJ: 41 points, 325 yards
at Mia: 35 points, 396 yards
vs Hou: 34 points, 377 yards

AVG: 28.7 points, 390.6 yards

HOME AVG: 31.0 points, 377.0 yards
ROAD AVG: 25.8 points, 382.5 yards

So the Pats are scoring more than 5 points more at home than on the road, while the Steelers are scoring 6 points a game fewer on the road than at home, over the same calendar time span.