AFC Championship: Patriots vs Steelers, the buildup

dbn

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Maybe don't have a Nink cover Brown 1:1 several times. That's a start.

(Justin Houston covered him solo on a deep route and in zone on the biggest play of the game to convert third down)
Indeed. Actually, I think Houston was on AB multiple plays. The KC D was very strange at times. They just left Jesse Jamison run free a lot.
 

Moog

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Tom E. Curran ‏@tomecurran 1h1 hour ago
Steeler wideout surreptitiously tapes Tomlin's address to team. Coach says of Pats: "Those assholes have a day-and-a-half head start on us."

http://www.csnne.com/new-england-patriots/antonio-brown-posts-questionable-locker-room-video-after-steelers-win

Tomlin: “Let’s say very little moving forward. Let’s start our preparations. We spotted those a******* a day and a half. They played yesterday. Our game got moved to tonight. We gonna touch down at 4 o’clock in the f****** morning. So be it. We’ll be ready for that ass. But you ain’t gotta tell them we coming. Because some of us might not like the damn (woofkisses?) The chest pounding. Keep a low profile.”

Cheerleading!
 

m0ckduck

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Very interesting game. Advanced metrics have the Steelers on par or close to the Pats over the last half of the season. .
Weighted DVOA (for one) has them second to the Pats as of last week... but, with a country mile separating the two. PIT is about as close to PHI at #7 as they are to NE at #1.

For what it's worth, weighted DVOA is telling us to revise our notion of PIT as an offensive-led team that can be easily scored on. DVOA likes their defense— just a hair behind HOU at #5— a lot more than their offense. Yesterday's result is likely to strengthen that evaluation.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Weighted DVOA (for one) has them second to the Pats as of last week... but, with a country mile separating the two. PIT is about as close to PHI at #7 as they are to NE at #1.

For what it's worth, weighted DVOA is telling us to revise our notion of PIT as an offensive-led team that can be easily scored on. DVOA likes their defense— just a hair behind HOU at #5— a lot more than their offense. Yesterday's result is likely to strengthen that evaluation.
I think DVOA is right on this one. People overrate their offense due to the Ben, Bell, Brown trio. But their WR/TE depth is a huge weakness due to injuries. Their options beyond Brown are basically putrid. And Ben rides on reputation a bit - he is a very good QB most franchises would kill to have but his last two years really haven't been all that impressive. All in all, I think Pitt on offense plays pretty well into our strengths.

Defensively I think Pitt is underrated. They have drafted really really well on defense the last few years and some of those guys seem to remain a bit under appreciated. A big question is how their two rookie secondary players hold up in a big game environment faced with the Patriots' passing offense.
 

grsharky7

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Tomlin already setting up the excuse train? "Those a******s have a day and a half head start!" At least that is what he said in the locker room postgame.
 

djbayko

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Tom E. Curran ‏@tomecurran 1h1 hour ago
Steeler wideout surreptitiously tapes Tomlin's address to team. Coach says of Pats: "Those assholes have a day-and-a-half head start on us."

http://www.csnne.com/new-england-patriots/antonio-brown-posts-questionable-locker-room-video-after-steelers-win

Tomlin: “Let’s say very little moving forward. Let’s start our preparations. We spotted those a******* a day and a half. They played yesterday. Our game got moved to tonight. We gonna touch down at 4 o’clock in the f****** morning. So be it. We’ll be ready for that ass. But you ain’t gotta tell them we coming. Because some of us might not like the damn (woofkisses?) The chest pounding. Keep a low profile.”

Cheerleading!
Woofkisses?

 

RedOctober3829

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Tom E. Curran ‏@tomecurran 1h1 hour ago
Steeler wideout surreptitiously tapes Tomlin's address to team. Coach says of Pats: "Those assholes have a day-and-a-half head start on us."

http://www.csnne.com/new-england-patriots/antonio-brown-posts-questionable-locker-room-video-after-steelers-win

Tomlin: “Let’s say very little moving forward. Let’s start our preparations. We spotted those a******* a day and a half. They played yesterday. Our game got moved to tonight. We gonna touch down at 4 o’clock in the f****** morning. So be it. We’ll be ready for that ass. But you ain’t gotta tell them we coming. Because some of us might not like the damn (woofkisses?) The chest pounding. Keep a low profile.”

Cheerleading!
Here's the video
 

Devizier

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Tom E. Curran ‏@tomecurran 1h1 hour ago
Tomlin: “Let’s say very little moving forward. Let’s start our preparations. We spotted those a******* a day and a half. They played yesterday. Our game got moved to tonight. We gonna touch down at 4 o’clock in the f****** morning. So be it. We’ll be ready for that ass. But you ain’t gotta tell them we coming. Because some of us might not like the damn (woofkisses?) The chest pounding. Keep a low profile.”
All of these things are basically uncontroversial. Except, I guess, to Antonio Brown who apparently disagrees with the last points.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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The Steelers aren't going to leave six touchdowns on the field like they did against Kansas City this weekend. There's a reason that 6 field goals is a record for a game. The offense stalled out, and while they're not the Juggernaut that people thought, they will play better in the Patriots half of the field this week.

Does that mean scoring more points? Maybe not. The Patriots probably have better defense than Kansas City, and because the Patriots offense can put together some drives, the Steelers will most likely be working with a longer field. The Steelers also won't be able to run the ball with Bell 30 times a game like they have the last two weeks. The Patriots putting up points will directly effect how many touches Bell gets. I would bet it's closer to 18-22.

I do worry about Timmons and Harrison wrecking the offensive line like Houston did in the first half. I'm expecting a lot of 3 man rushes by Pittsburgh.
I dont. The Patriots offensive line struggles with athletic and quick defensive lineman. In fact, that's probably been their Achilles heel for the last decade. Neither Harrison nor Timmons fit that mold.
 

snowmanny

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The Pats played Saturday night. The Steelers played Sunday night. How is that a day and a half advantage?
They had to fly out of town last night. And they have to fly to New England.

You want to avoid that? Have a better record and stay at home. Brady could never beat the Steelers in the AFCCG in Pittsburgh.
 

schillzilla

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The Steelers aren't going to leave six touchdowns on the field like they did against Kansas City this weekend. There's a reason that 6 field goals is a record for a game. The offense stalled out, and while they're not the Juggernaut that people thought, they will play better in the Patriots half of the field this week.

Does that mean scoring more points? Maybe not. The Patriots probably have better defense than Kansas City, and because the Patriots offense can put together some drives, the Steelers will most likely be working with a longer field. The Steelers also won't be able to run the ball with Bell 30 times a game like they have the last two weeks. The Patriots putting up points will directly effect how many touches Bell gets. I would bet it's closer to 18-22.



I dont. The Patriots offensive line struggles with athletic and quick defensive lineman. In fact, that's probably been their Achilles heel for the last decade. Neither Harrison nor Timmons fit that mold.
Could the steelers line up Dupree in the middle to rush Brady? Andrews was just getting abused and that's a concern to me.
 

Stitch01

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Weighted DVOA (for one) has them second to the Pats as of last week... but, with a country mile separating the two. PIT is about as close to PHI at #7 as they are to NE at #1.

For what it's worth, weighted DVOA is telling us to revise our notion of PIT as an offensive-led team that can be easily scored on. DVOA likes their defense— just a hair behind HOU at #5— a lot more than their offense. Yesterday's result is likely to strengthen that evaluation.
That still includes the Landry Jones games, gap is smaller since Ben returned.
 

TheoShmeo

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So who released that video? Do we have a Patriots Spy inside the Steeler locker room? A Stealth Patriot Steeler?

And as noted, it's good to see the Steelers ignoring Tomlin to that extent.

Small things but still nice to see the lack of control Tomlin has over his squad.
 

wilked

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Home field plus short week for Steelers worth 4-5 points. That's a big advantage for the Pats

Bell is my main worry, and I worry most about him on screens. Pats linebackers going to struggle with that assignment
 

wilked

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I am trying to picture a Patriots player releasing a video like that

Nope, can't see it
 

Reggie's Racquet

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Our offensive line play will be the key. If our offensive line plays like they did against the Texans it will be a big problem. Got to give Brady time and allow him to feel comfortable in the pocket. It was the big problem in the last AFC championship game. Time for Dante to step up. Must get Blount healthy and the o-line must establish some running game to keep the pass rush honest.
 

caesarbear

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Bell had a day but never sniffed the endzone. As said before field goals won't beat the pats. The focus should be on the receivers.
 

DJnVa

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Interesting that one could argue that of the 4 teams left, Pats have the #1 defense and the #3 or #4 offense.

Not sure I'd make that argument but it's not ridiculously far-fetched.
 

jsinger121

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Two players who could be very important in practice this week are Jacoby Brissett playing the role of Ben in practice and Dion Lewis/DJ Foster as Bell.
 

Toe Nash

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Be patient with Bell. KC's plan was apparently to attack him but you need to do the opposite. Sit on the blocks, don't leave your lanes and bell will be caught waiting for something to open up.

Stop Bell, force Ben to throw and he will make mistakes.
Yeah, it seems like a similar plan for facing a mobile QB like Wilson or Rodgers. Don't overpursue and try to keep contain, and close in on him. Easier said than done.

Don't lose the turnover battle and they should be able to turn enough drives into FGs to be OK.
 

BaseballJones

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Interesting that one could argue that of the 4 teams left, Pats have the #1 defense and the #3 or #4 offense.

Not sure I'd make that argument but it's not ridiculously far-fetched.
Going from this season's rankings, here's how the four teams stack up:

New England
- Offense: #3 points, #4 yards (3.5 average)
- Defense: #1 points, #8 yards (4.5 average)
TOTAL AVERAGE RANK: 4.0

Pittsburgh
- Offense: #10 points, #7 yards (8.5 average)
- Defense: #10 points, #12 yards (11.0 average)
TOTAL AVERAGE RANK: 9.8

Atlanta
- Offense: #1 points, #2 yards (1.2 average)
- Defense: #27 points, #25 yards (26.0 average)
TOTAL AVERAGE RANK: 13.8

Green Bay
- Offense: #4 points, #8 yards (6.0 average)
- Defense: #21 points, #22 yards (21.5 average)
TOTAL AVERAGE RANK: 13.8

So yes, the Patriots are, by the basic NFL measurements, by far the best overall team left in the playoffs. I'm sure there are plenty of other ways of looking at this though.
 

Devizier

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So who released that video? Do we have a Patriots Spy inside the Steeler locker room? A Stealth Patriot Steeler?
Antonio Brown, who broadcast it on Facebook live.
And as noted, it's good to see the Steelers ignoring Tomlin to that extent.
Most of the team gathered around Tomlin during his speech.

The biggest takeaway is that Brown gets star treatment, but that doesn't surprise me. Most teams operate that way.
 

joe dokes

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I'm hoping that Bell is getting worn out a bit. Maybe KC was loading up to stop him, but his last 9 carries -- all after his 38-6-5 runs early in the 3Q -- gained 23 yards.
 

TheoShmeo

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Antonio Brown, who broadcast it on Facebook live.Most of the team gathered around Tomlin during his speech.

The biggest takeaway is that Brown gets star treatment, but that doesn't surprise me. Most teams operate that way.
Yeah, I know it was Brown. Was kidding.

I do think that this shows something of a lack of control. BIg deal? No. Amusing and enjoyable? Absolutely.
 

j44thor

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Two players who could be very important in practice this week are Jacoby Brissett playing the role of Ben in practice and Dion Lewis/DJ Foster as Bell.
You would have a better representation of Large Ben if you brought Bledsoe out of retirement. Gone are the days of Ben looking like a poor man's Rodgers. He has zero movement in the pocket now. Just a statue back there. There isn't another RB like Bell on the planet so good luck with that one. He is redefining the position with that patient style, vision that hasn't been seen before.
 

RedOctober3829

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Interesting that one could argue that of the 4 teams left, Pats have the #1 defense and the #3 or #4 offense.

Not sure I'd make that argument but it's not ridiculously far-fetched.
In terms of explosiveness, yes their offense is behind Atlanta and maybe GB. But they are much more balanced offensively than GB. Atlanta's offense is legitimately scary.
 

j44thor

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Home field plus short week for Steelers worth 4-5 points. That's a big advantage for the Pats

Bell is my main worry, and I worry most about him on screens. Pats linebackers going to struggle with that assignment
Why are people calling this a short week for PIT? They played Sunday and play again on Sunday.
I've never once heard that considered a short week. They played a prime-time road game. That happens every single week in the NFL reg season and no one says it is a short week. Pats get an extra day is accurate but PIT is not at some huge disadvantage playing on a regular schedule.
 

Devizier

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I do think that this shows something of a lack of control. BIg deal? No. Amusing and enjoyable? Absolutely.
I mean, I think most, if not all NFL teams run this way. Belichick is a rare exception in the league. Running things the way the Patriots do is extremely difficult. It's a fine line between exercising omerta-style control and pissing off a bunch of guys who outearn you.
 

DJnVa

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You would have a better representation of Large Ben if you brought Bledsoe out of retirement. Gone are the days of Ben looking like a poor man's Rodgers. He has zero movement in the pocket now.
Crazy that Brady rushed for 5 times as many yards as Ben did. I know pocket movement isn't the same thing, but that's still nuts. And of course, Brady has great pocket movement. We need to hit Ben.

Why are people calling this a short week for PIT? They played Sunday and play again on Sunday.
I think they're comparing it to NE's week. A day less, plus travel.
 

RG33

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This is really naive. They held Pats under 30 in the first meeting and that was with Gronk and with Blount averaging 5+ ypc. Pitt defenses is at worst the 2nd best defense remaining in the playoffs and a legitimately good D.

Offensively I expect Pitt to rack up yards on the Pats. This game will be won or lost in the red zone (or turn overs, naturally). If they can keep them out of the end zone most of the night Pats will be looking good before middle the 4th quarter. Otherwise it's going to go down to the wire.
Yeah, they held them to 27. On the road. In Brady's 3rd game back.

The Patriots just played awful and put up 34 on a very good-to-elite Houston D, I don't think it is "naive" to think that the Patriots, at home, can score 30+ against this Pitt team.
 

Blue Monkey

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Reading
Hot Takez in. On First Take this morning

AFCCG Picks

Steve A : PIT
Kellerman: PIT
McNabb: (still trying to figure out the new overtime rules) PIT
 

j44thor

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Would be nice to get back to a two (or three) headed monster at RB this week.
Blount had one of his best games of the year week 7 @ PIT when he ran for 127yds and PIT has given up big yardage both on the ground and through the air to RB's this season.

By far PIT biggest weakness on D is against the RB position. Obvious benefit of strong ground game is keeping Bell/Brown on the sideline.