AFC Playoffs into December
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only way denver is out
3 Denver L
2 Baitmore W or 3
i assume miami and balt will lose 2 more games
the bare min denver needs are miami L in week 15 16 Balt Losses in 16 17 2 KC Wins so oakland is locked into the 5 seed in week 17 and i know del rio he will lay down at leas for a haif
3 Denver L
2 Baitmore W or 3
i assume miami and balt will lose 2 more games
the bare min denver needs are miami L in week 15 16 Balt Losses in 16 17 2 KC Wins so oakland is locked into the 5 seed in week 17 and i know del rio he will lay down at leas for a haif
No I mean Brandon Marshall and Todd Davis. They didn't practice today and are apparent long shots to play.
sorry for all the posts here is what i meant with help
Before anyone says I'm crazy, you should know that it's a plausible scenario, even if unlikely.
For that to happen, we will need stars to align the right way:
If I'm not mistaken, Bills, Colts, Cinci and Chargers are out of contention for that 6th seed if we win 1 game... Bills and Cinci can actively help us get the 6th seed, so don't forget to rout for them when they play against one of the teams above (games are highlighted in bold)...
Of course going 2-1 would be much better and a safer option:
The safest scenario that guarantees us a place in the playoffs is 3-0 to end the year (I wouldn't bet a dollar on it through). It could also make us the AFC number 1 seed if the raiders go 1-2, the Chiefs go 0-3, the Pats go 0-3 and the Steelers go 2-1, highly improbable but would be so sweet...
Hope you enjoyed those predictions/scenarios, and let me know if I made a mistake somewhere...
PS: The situation is not so bad as we still control our destiny, and even a loss to the Pats is not the end of the world...
Before anyone says I'm crazy, you should know that it's a plausible scenario, even if unlikely.
For that to happen, we will need stars to align the right way:
- Miami (8-5) will need to go 1-2 or 0-3 playing @JETS, @Buffalo, vsPats --> My bet: 1-2 with loses to the Jets and Pats
- Ravens (7-6) will need to go 1-2 or 0-3 playing vsEagles, @Pitts, @Cinci --> My bet 1-2 with loses to Pitts and Cinci
- If the Ravens go 2-1 or 3-0, we need Pitts (8-5) to go 0-3 playing @Cinci, vsRavens, vsBrowns --> my bet they go 3-0 and help us in the meantime
- Titans (7-6) go 1-2 or 0-3 playing @Chiefs, @Jags, vsTexans --> My bet 2-1 with wins over Jags and Texans, 3-0 would be even better for us
- Texans (7-6) go 2-1 (with Titans 3-0) or 1-2 playing vsJags, vsCinci, @Titans --> my bet Texans fold under pressure and ends the year with 3 strait loses (yes even the Jags)
If I'm not mistaken, Bills, Colts, Cinci and Chargers are out of contention for that 6th seed if we win 1 game... Bills and Cinci can actively help us get the 6th seed, so don't forget to rout for them when they play against one of the teams above (games are highlighted in bold)...
Of course going 2-1 would be much better and a safer option:
- Miami (8-5) will need to go 2-1 or less, highly probable
- Ravens (7-6) will need to go 2-1 or less, highly probable, and if not Pitts (8-5) will need to go 1-2, which is unlikely so root for Pitts and Cinci to beat the Ravens
The safest scenario that guarantees us a place in the playoffs is 3-0 to end the year (I wouldn't bet a dollar on it through). It could also make us the AFC number 1 seed if the raiders go 1-2, the Chiefs go 0-3, the Pats go 0-3 and the Steelers go 2-1, highly improbable but would be so sweet...
Hope you enjoyed those predictions/scenarios, and let me know if I made a mistake somewhere...
PS: The situation is not so bad as we still control our destiny, and even a loss to the Pats is not the end of the world...
oh wow no woder everyone counting NE as a loss
that means Corey nelson and Z Anderson will get a lot of playing time ask gunfighter how that works out they are fast but raw means u need to attick middle of field this might be a bie game for blount
If Buffalo and Miami finish 9-7, is strength of victory going to be the tiebreaker? They would have the same AFCE and AFC record. Common opponents is the same.
Depends what happens on the 24th, but assuming Buffalo wins to make head-to-head 1-1, but under that assumption yes, you're right, since they're from the same division, so you use the divisional tiebreakers to break that tie. Given 1-4 would be still a standstill, the 5th tiebreaker for divisions is strength of victory, then schedule strength, followed by best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed, and so on.
Yes, and the SOV race is close. Under the assumption that Buffalo wins out and Miami loses to NE so that both finish 9-7 Buffalo has a 2.5 win advantage in SOV. There are 9 relevant games left for their relative SOV total to change. In Week 16 Buffalo can gain SOV from NE beating NYJ, CIN over HOU and JAX over TEN whilst MIA gains from NYJ over NE, PIT over BAL and SDC over CLE. In Week 17 Buffalo improves with CIN over BAL and JAX over IND whilst MIA gains with PIT over CLE and SDC over KCC.
Taking the expected win %'ages from 538.com for those games https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo Miami would only be expected to narrow their defecit by 1/3 of a game, BUT if NE were to lose to the Jets (NE is 90% likely to win that one) the expected SOVs become a virtual dead heat (Buf favoured by 0.37 games)!
Now I don't think it will come down to that but as a Pats fan with a wife (and commensurate set of in-laws) from Buffalo I'd say it's our duty to win our last 2 games and hold up our side of the bargain.
Incidentally, as posted before last night's game, the Pats have now won their last matchup against every AFC opponent. They have 7-game win streaks against Indy and Jax, a 6-game streak against Ten, 4-game against Oak, 3-game streaks against Pit, Bal and SD, 2-game streaks against Cinci and Cle and 1-game streaks against Den, KC and each of our division rivals. In the NFC we have win streaks against 12 of the 16 teams including 5-game streaks against Dallas and the Rams, 4-game streaks against Chi, Det, Min and Atl and 3-game streaks against Wash and TB. The only losing 'streaks' are 4 1-game streaks against Phi, GB, Car (due to play them next year) and Sea.
Only 6 teams have won their last game in Foxboro (and each has a 1-game streak: Buf, NYfG, Phi, Sea, Ari and SF) and the Pats have only 2 away losing streaks more than 1 game long: KC and Car (both 2 games).
As Patriot HC, Belichick now has a winning record or even against every NFL team. The only teams that he's at not above .500 are Denver (9-9), NYG (3-3) and GB (2-2). He has never lost to Jax (7-0), Dal (4-0) or Atl (4-0) as a Patriot (though he was 0-2, 1-1 and 0-1 against those 3 teams as HC of the Browns).
By my count KC IS out of the 1-seed race. If KC wins out and NE loses out both would finish 12-4 and 9-3 in the AFC so the tie-breaker would be common opponents (NYJ, Pit, Hou and Den). With a loss v NYJ this week as part of the Pats losing out, they'd finish 4-1 against that group whilst the Chiefs have already lost to Hou and Pit so would finish 3-2 (with the winning out including a 2nd win over Den).
Also vis-a-vis Oakland the Pats essentially have a 'magic number' of 2: any combination of Pats wins (or draws) and Oak losses (or draws) totalling 2 would give NE the #1 seed (i.e. what you said + the scenario where both teams lose both their remaining games)
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Except if the Pats lose out, Oak goes 1-1 and KC goes 2-0 we still get the 1 seed because KC will win their division (right?).
The 3rd and 4th seeds are going to be interesting.
PIT hosts BAL week 16. Assuming PIT wins at home against CLE in week 17, BAL needs to beat PIT and win @CIN week 17 to win the division. Otherwise, the division goes to PIT.
TEN's win this week was huge for them. If they win @ JAC week 16, the division will come down to the week 17 HOU@TEN game, no matter what HOU does week 16. (The Colts need JAC to beat TEN and CIN to beat HOU week 16, and TEN to beat HOU week 17 to win the division -- i.e., not going to happen.)
The wild card scenarios are too complicated at this point.
PIT hosts BAL week 16. Assuming PIT wins at home against CLE in week 17, BAL needs to beat PIT and win @CIN week 17 to win the division. Otherwise, the division goes to PIT.
TEN's win this week was huge for them. If they win @ JAC week 16, the division will come down to the week 17 HOU@TEN game, no matter what HOU does week 16. (The Colts need JAC to beat TEN and CIN to beat HOU week 16, and TEN to beat HOU week 17 to win the division -- i.e., not going to happen.)
The wild card scenarios are too complicated at this point.
Correct. In that case KC wins on the division on HTH sweep of Oakland and then loses the #1 tie-breaker to NE on common opponents.
If the Pats, Bengals, Bills and Raiders win next Saturday and then Denver beats KC on Christmas day, that will set up the most interesting scenario on New Year's day
The Pats & Raiders would be locked into the #1 & 2 seeds, with NE getting the #1 if they win, and the two teams would be playing on the road against the two teams competing for the 6 seed, with Miami basically a win and in.
Considering that Ndomikong Suh and TJ Ward play for the Phins and Broncos, neither BB or Del Rio would want to leave their starters in a moment longer than they need to in those games. If they are both close, you will get the Pats and Raiders going full out to the final whistle. If either the Pats or Broncos get out to a big lead, then you could see guys like Brady, Carr or Mack come off the field early. It will create some interesting coaching decisions, as the Broncos need to win, but not by so much that Belichick serves up another week 17 "win" for the Dolphins by sitting TB12 for the second half.
The Pats & Raiders would be locked into the #1 & 2 seeds, with NE getting the #1 if they win, and the two teams would be playing on the road against the two teams competing for the 6 seed, with Miami basically a win and in.
Considering that Ndomikong Suh and TJ Ward play for the Phins and Broncos, neither BB or Del Rio would want to leave their starters in a moment longer than they need to in those games. If they are both close, you will get the Pats and Raiders going full out to the final whistle. If either the Pats or Broncos get out to a big lead, then you could see guys like Brady, Carr or Mack come off the field early. It will create some interesting coaching decisions, as the Broncos need to win, but not by so much that Belichick serves up another week 17 "win" for the Dolphins by sitting TB12 for the second half.
Let me take a stab at this.
-KC or Oakland is the 5 seed.
-I refuse to acknowledge that Cleveland could beat Pittsburgh.
-I think the 6 seed scenarios can be summarized thusly:
11 Wins - Only Miami can get here by winning out. They would still be the 6 seed due to losing the SoV tiebreaker with Oak or KC
10 Wins - Pittsburgh would be ahead of Miami and Denver with 8 conference wins, to get here they would beat Cleveland and lose to Baltimore. If it is Miami Vs Denver with both sitting on 7 conference wins (i.e Pittsburgh wins the North, Denver wins both and Miami splits), I think Denver would get the SoV tiebreaker over Miami.
9 Wins - Five way tie between Pitt/Balt loser, Houston, Denver, Buffalo and Miami would go to the Ravens or Steelers with their 8 conference wins at that point. Houston would be next at 9-7 with 7 conference wins. Then Miami v. Denver at 9-7 would go to the Phish with one extra conference win. Buffalo essentially needs everyone to 8-8 to get in.
If the two games have any impact on each other they will move them to 4PM to align them. If Oakland beats Indy at home next week, you can be certain the Pats game will be moved to 4 PM. The only caveat is that NBC could conceivably move one of the games to Sunday night, but they wouldn't do that in the scenario I outlined, because one game earlier in the day could make the primetime game pointless. They are likely to have two week 17 winner take all / loser goes home games to chose from in Green Bay - Detroit and Houston Tennessee and one of those (the GB game, I imagine) will be in the Sunday night Slot.
I don't think there are Sunday night or Monday night games in Week 17. No team should have shorter week (beyond a 4:25 game) heading into postseason.
They didnt align the Pats and Broncos games last year with the same scenario. I wrote "as of now" to cover the possibility they move the game, but its not a sure thing if history is our guide.
the week 17 Sunday night game is always a flex chosen next Sunday night. They will announce it at halftime of the Chiefs / Broncos game on Christmas night. The flex scheduling primer is below-
http://www.nfl.com/flexible-schedules
http://www.nfl.com/flexible-schedules
I bet it will be GB-Detroit for the division. Slight chance of Houston-Tennessee for the division.
1- NE 12-2 -- home NJY, at MIA (will win at least 1 of these)
2- OAK 11-3- home IND, at DEN (still has a decent shot at the 1 seed. Will smoke IND at home then ?? at Denver)
3- PIT 9-5-- home BAL, home CLE (high odds for 3 seed/ winning AFC North due to home game against CLE)- edit- seems as though Baltimore if they win has tiebreaker over them. Hmmm.
4- HOU 8-6--home CIN, at TEN (AFC South is going to come down to week 17 h2h. I think TEN gets it done).
5- KC 10-4--home DEN, at SD (probably 1-1- kind of blew it this week)
6- MIA 9-5--at BUF, home NE (seems like any outcome would not be surprising- has upper hand over BAL and DEN but potentially difficult schedule-)- If they hold serve it'll be on to PIT.
7- BAL 8-6-- at PIT, at CIN (probably out but who knows- would like PIT to put them out of their misery next week)
8- DEN 8-6 --at KC, home OAK (probably out but who knows).
9- TEN 8-6-- at JAC, home HOU (will win out and win a date at home with KC and will more or less deserve it).
10- IND/BUF 7-7...It's not happening.
Miami at Pittsburgh- Pittsburg wins this game I think. Even if Baltimore or Denver finds a way in they're probably not winning this game either.
Kansas City at Tennesee. Probably edge Tennessee given what happened this week.
Pittsburgh at Oakland- what a great game this will be. I'm calling this a tossup. Glad we'll only have to face one of these two teams.
Tennessee at New England- New England wins this game 9/10 times.
Pittsburgh or Oakland at New England- at home, that's edge New England but either one is a tough game.
2- OAK 11-3- home IND, at DEN (still has a decent shot at the 1 seed. Will smoke IND at home then ?? at Denver)
3- PIT 9-5-- home BAL, home CLE (high odds for 3 seed/ winning AFC North due to home game against CLE)- edit- seems as though Baltimore if they win has tiebreaker over them. Hmmm.
4- HOU 8-6--home CIN, at TEN (AFC South is going to come down to week 17 h2h. I think TEN gets it done).
5- KC 10-4--home DEN, at SD (probably 1-1- kind of blew it this week)
6- MIA 9-5--at BUF, home NE (seems like any outcome would not be surprising- has upper hand over BAL and DEN but potentially difficult schedule-)- If they hold serve it'll be on to PIT.
7- BAL 8-6-- at PIT, at CIN (probably out but who knows- would like PIT to put them out of their misery next week)
8- DEN 8-6 --at KC, home OAK (probably out but who knows).
9- TEN 8-6-- at JAC, home HOU (will win out and win a date at home with KC and will more or less deserve it).
10- IND/BUF 7-7...It's not happening.
Miami at Pittsburgh- Pittsburg wins this game I think. Even if Baltimore or Denver finds a way in they're probably not winning this game either.
Kansas City at Tennesee. Probably edge Tennessee given what happened this week.
Pittsburgh at Oakland- what a great game this will be. I'm calling this a tossup. Glad we'll only have to face one of these two teams.
Tennessee at New England- New England wins this game 9/10 times.
Pittsburgh or Oakland at New England- at home, that's edge New England but either one is a tough game.
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NFL.com and CBSsports.com both have Buffalo listed as not-yet eliminated. I'm guessing they haven't yet been updated for yesterday's games? I couldn't get them in using the ESPN playoff machine. The best they could do would be to tie MIA for the 2nd wild card at 9-7, but it seems MIA always wins the tiebreaker. I even made all of their non-common wins lose for MIA and win for BUF in weeks 16-17, but it didn't matter.
In the past, the NFL has moved game times so as not to give an unfair advantage to a team. In this case I think they will move the Pats game to 4pm. That way both teams have to play it honest.
Yeah, either ESPN's playoff machine is wrong, the multiple sites saying the Bills are still in it are wrong, or there is some crazy scenario I'm missing.
While I absolutely want New England to have the number 1 seed and nothing is a given and every playoff team is tough, it seems to me that it's likely that the 2-seed will have a more favorable divisional round opponent (i.e.Pittsburgh/Baltimore) than the 1 seed (i.e. Chiefs).
Ernie Adams was spotted leaving Foxboro in a DeLorean at 88 mph; he will return just before game time to tell Belichick if he can rest the stars.
I wrote it out (like dbn did) - I think ESPN is wrong. The Bills have a 7.5 win lead over Miami in SoV if everything goes perfectly.
Edit: the Bills also need Baltimore to lose a game or they end up losing a tiebreaker to whatever team is in second in the North. I think.
NYTimes shows the Bills as the #6 seed with this scenario whereas the same set of games on ESPN's playoff machine has the Dolphins at #6.
Week 16:
Bills over Fins
Jags over Titans
Bengals over Texans
Steelers over Ravens
Week 17:
Bengals over Ravens
Jags over Colts
Pats over Fins
Bills over Jets
Raiders over Broncos
Not terribly likely even if NYT is correct.
edit:
If the Raiders beat the Colts in week 16, the Jags wouldn't need to beat the Colts for the Bills to get in. Slightly easier path I guess.
Week 16:
Bills over Fins
Jags over Titans
Bengals over Texans
Steelers over Ravens
Week 17:
Bengals over Ravens
Jags over Colts
Pats over Fins
Bills over Jets
Raiders over Broncos
Not terribly likely even if NYT is correct.
edit:
If the Raiders beat the Colts in week 16, the Jags wouldn't need to beat the Colts for the Bills to get in. Slightly easier path I guess.
Using 538's tool, Buffalo gets in if Miami, Denver and Baltimore lose out, and Houston and Tennessee lose next week. So not done, but a huge longshot.
I don't know -- given that the Steelers beat the Chiefs 43-14 earlier this season and were ranked ahead of the Chiefs in DVOA going into this week (4th to their 5th) I think you could make the case either way on which team is more favorable.
Overall I think it would be better to play Oakland in Foxboro than Oakland, and I'm not sure there's too much more to be gained from the #1 vs. the #2.
Honest question: what's wrong with us that we spent as much time and effort as we just did to figure out what, if any, path to the playoffs are held by the 2016/17 Buffalo Bills? Seriously, I could have been out volunteering, or finishing The Sound and the Fury, or catching up on episodes of Westworld.
Last year the machine was wrong as well with elaborate scenarios. It doesn't have tie breaks right.
Minor point but there's no such thing as a 5-way tie-breaker scenario. The NFL procedure is to first rank each team within its division and then compare only the top teams from each division with a given record to each other. In your example that would mean Buffalo and Miami would be compared to each other first (which would go down to SOV which favours Buf at the moment but could swing to Mia depending on who wins the NEP-NYJ game) and then whoever emerges gets compared to Pit/Bal loser, Hou and Den.
In an ideal world,
Seems likely that Pittsburgh will be the #3 seed, and will have a reasonable chance of beating whomever the #6 is, whether that be Miami or Baltimore or Denver. Pittsburgh is hardly a terrifying team, but I'd rather play the Chiefs or Titans or Texans in the Divisional round. Not a slam dunk choice, but if I had to pick...