I think this deal is a perfect example of the "pain" DD alluded to earlier this week. If either Margot or Guerra reach their respective most rosy optimistic ceilings it makes the deal weighted heavily toward SD. Further, the attached anecdote from Speier is discouraging with regard to Allen.
However, from a DD/Red Sox perspective and the comparison to the A-Gone deal seems decent in one aspect. Here like then Red Sox traded three high end prospects and one( Rizzo) exploded. Here, Margot is pretty likely to at least be an average overall outfielder whereas the Sox are busting to the seams with Betts Bradley , Castillo, Benintendi potentially Moncada,. To be frank once Benintendi showed he was legit in his limited minor league time I was pretty resigned to Margot getting shipped. Guerra rocketed up prospect rankings last year but is probably, at least, 3 years away and IMHO X will be here for a long time Boras be damned (see E.Andrus extension).
I don't think this package gets an ace without adding a Swihart, Moncada, Devers, or Benintendi. It puts more pressure on DD to lure Price with a record setting contract or Greinke who I like alot. All in all the Sox are better today for the 2016 season and they traded away two guys as the center pieces I expected to get dealt. I agree with what someone up thread said that Kelly is likely ticketed for pen.
"Once in the Sox system, he reminded some team officials of a familiar pitcher in both appearance and delivery.
“If you put his video right next to Jon Lester, you’d think it was Jon Lester. That’s how eerily similar the body type is, the delivery is, the way he looks,” said GCL Red Sox manager Tom Kotchman. “When our scouts first saw him at the IMG Academy in Bradenton, that’s exactly what he looks like.”
“I actually think Logan’s curveball is more advanced than Jon’s was,” said Red Sox pitching coordinator Ralph Treuel, who worked with Lester as an 18-year-old after the Red Sox picked him in the 2002 draft. “The secondary pitches, both of them – the changeup and curveball – are a little more advanced. I think Jon threw a little harder early on. But that’s a pretty good guy to be compared to.”
But as an 18-year-old who regularly worked at 92-93 mph (a likely above-average pitch given his ability to repeat his delivery and command), he showed comfort incorporating his changeup, demonstrated the ability to spin a curveball, and threw four pitches for strikes while punching out 26 and walking just one in 24 1/3 innings between the Gulf Coast League and Lowell. Allen showed what could be No. 3 or No. 4 starter potential.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/11/13/closer-look-prospects-red-sox-traded-away/622IxpiHRfp21cQ3jE5g9N/story.html