X posting...Papelbon's Poutine said:Jesus that would be pretty quick.
Papelbon's Poutine said:Jesus that would be pretty quick.
This is being discussed in the 3B thread.pdub said:Sincere apologies for the lack of a definite source, but I just read over at Pro Sports Daily that we're nearing an agreement with Sandoval. 5 years and $100M. The source is the same guy who revealed the Rusney Castillo signing first. All I have so far is that the guy's twitter is Marino_Pepen.
I'll edit this post once something more concrete is released.
Hank Scorpio said:I can't see Cespedes and Ranaudo (or Webster) as being enough for a guy like Cueto. I think it can be done without including Betts/Bogaerts/Swihart, but I would think you'd have to include Owens or Rodriguez instead of (or more likely, in addition to) Webster or Ranaudo.
Hank Scorpio said:I can't see Cespedes and Ranaudo (or Webster) as being enough for a guy like Cueto. I think it can be done without including Betts/Bogaerts/Swihart, but I would think you'd have to include Owens or Rodriguez instead of (or more likely, in addition to) Webster or Ranaudo.
“It was just frustrating,” he said of the injury that nagged him during the season. “The year before, I found a way to perform, playing nicked up. The year before it was a loose feeling — I tore that ligament in my thumb and everything just felt loose, so I was able to figure it out and let the ball travel more and just try to slap balls the other way and get hits and not try to drive the ball. This year it was more, I was restricted. I didn’t have any motion. It was so swollen and tight all year, I couldn’t get a feel of how to get through it. It was tough. I fought it all year.
“Now that it’s fixed, it’s night and day. I can already tell that. There’s a lot of IOU’s to hand out to people, so I’m pretty excited about it.”
Snoop Soxy Dogg said:Rather than alternate offerings, the main alternate option, I think is for the Reds to sit tight, maybe try to sign a Markakis or trade for a Marlon Byrd, trade Cueto at the July deadline if they are out of it. That or try to substitute Latos for Cueto in the proposed deal above.
Snoop Soxy Dogg said:
That or try to substitute Latos for Cueto in the proposed deal above.
TOleary25 said:
The Reds know they can't afford Cueto after this year so I think it's more likely they try to move him and extend Latos. The Reds have four starting pitchers that will be free agents after 2015. As Cameron mentions in the article, moving Cueto and Marshall frees up some money to replace Cueto in the rotation (Masterson? McCarthy? Santana?).
A rotation of Latos, Bailey, Leake, Simon, Masterson is still pretty solid and the potential line-up with Cespedes and a healthy Bruce/Votto could be one of the best in the league if things go right. Ranaudo would give them a potential replacement in the rotation if/when Simon or Leake leave via free agency.
Snodgrass'Muff said:Why is this being posted as though it's a known fact, lately? Is there a quote from someone in the Reds' front office suggesting they don't think they can afford him? Or is it just "Small market team means no big contracts?" I mean, they signed Joey Votto to a mega deal, so they are clearly willing to spend when they like someone. It's not a lock that they will be able to extend him, but I would be shocked if they've already written off the possibility.
Snodgrass'Muff said:
Also, the phrase "moving Cueto and Marshall frees up some money to replace Cueto in the rotation" made me laugh. If their goal is to free up money they haven't spent yet to use in free agency to replace him, why not just spend money on him in the first place? If they want to compete, extending Cueto is their best option. I'm really not seeing the argument for the Reds being unable to keep Cueto after 2015
I think it comes from the frequent reports from Cincy saying they can't sign both. People then assume they can't sign the most expensive, when in fact the reason they can't sign both is likely because they want to keep the most expensive one.Snodgrass'Muff said:Why is this being posted as though it's a known fact, lately? Is there a quote from someone in the Reds' front office suggesting they don't think they can afford him? Or is it just "Small market team means no big contracts?" I mean, they signed Joey Votto to a mega deal, so they are clearly willing to spend when they like someone. It's not a lock that they will be able to extend him, but I would be shocked if they've already written off the possibility.
TOleary25 said:
The Reds know they can't afford Cueto after this year so I think it's more likely they try to move him and extend Latos. The Reds have four starting pitchers that will be free agents after 2015. As Cameron mentions in the article, moving Cueto and Marshall frees up some money to replace Cueto in the rotation (Masterson? McCarthy? Santana?).
A rotation of Latos, Bailey, Leake, Simon, Masterson is still pretty solid and the potential line-up with Cespedes and a healthy Bruce/Votto could be one of the best in the league if things go right. Ranaudo would give them a potential replacement in the rotation if/when Simon or Leake leave via free agency.
Ideally yep, but how would that work? Once the season starts, he's not very likely to give up his one shot at a big FA deal unless it's for a huge non-Cherington-like contract. I would think we have to view him as a one-year player, which is why it's (theoretically) possible to get him for another one-year player and a prospect. That said, I'm for giving up one of our several B-list lottery tickets, and if he loves it in Boston, then see what can be done after next year vs the open market.Hank Scorpio said:If we are able to trade for Cueto, I'd hope we'd get a window to work out a contract extension - although the FO might be hesitant to give him nine figures over 6+ seasons until he shows he can pitch in Boston.
It's simply preposterous! I think Dave needs to read this board so that he is not suggesting trade proposal that this forum finds preposterous.Snodgrass'Muff said:
I would suggest you spend some time looking into what players are worth and what teams need before making another suggestion because every trade proposal you've made on this forum has been preposterous. Cueto is one of the best pitchers in the entire sport. There's almost no chance they are looking to trade him, and if they do move him, it'll be because they were blown away by an offer. If they move anyone it'll be Latos, and the package you suggested probably isn't enough to get him, either.
ha ha, as you should...lxt said:It's simply preposterous! I think Dave needs to read this board so that he is not suggesting trade proposal that this forum finds preposterous.
Sorry, could not resist. I think it would be great but you may have something there in that it may take a few lesser prospects ... again I offer Escobar & Brentz. Absorbing Sean Marshall's contract helps but I'd throw in Mujica and do a contract trade.
benhogan said:ha ha, as you should...
here is my mea culpa on my sarcasm, maybe your trade suggestion wasn't so silly.
Well Done.Snodgrass'Muff said:
Mine as well. Preposterous was too strong a word. I still think it's not enough for Cueto, but you seem to agree there is a need to add value from the Sox. I would argue Brentz and Escobar is not enough, but I'd be splitting hairs.
I'm not sure the proposal is that crazy; its a difference of perception regarding cueto. The difference between cueto and cespedes was somewhere around 0.7 fWAR or 2.3 bWAR this year, and it depends on how you project cueto in 2015.Snodgrass'Muff said:
This was my first thought. The package Cameron suggested sounds more like what it would take to get Latos, IMO. Cameron's goal with that piece is to spark draw traffic and spark discussion, so I don't take it to mean much other than as fodder for message board posts and comment threads, but it seems a bit of a light offer from the Sox. Don't get me wrong, I'd be effing thrilled to be wrong here, but I just don't see it.
lxt said:Well Done.
I also have a problem with offering too much since we only get him for a year. If he'd agree to sign a 3 to 4 year extension as part of the trade (Sort of like Gonzales did) then I'd offer Cespedes and Owens straight up.
Thanks for bringing this up, but this little note means a trade (and not just with the Red Sox) almost certainly isn't happening:lxt said:
Notably, Rosenthal says that the Rockies are telling clubs that they will not accept a return that does not provide fair value for the healthy production levels of both players.
Similarly, I would be more than happy to trade Clay Buchholz as long as the return was fair value for his pitching performance from the first half of the 2013 season.MakMan44 said:Notably, Rosenthal says that the Rockies are telling clubs that they will not accept a return that does not provide fair value for the healthy production levels of both players.
jimbobim said:
The main reason I personally would have labelled your previous suggestions preposterous was the assignment of real value to Mujica. He turned his season around pretty well and I don't think he's an albatross at $4.75M for one more year, but no team is giving him real trade value at that price.lxt said:It's simply preposterous! I think Dave needs to read this board so that he is not suggesting trade proposal that this forum finds preposterous.
Sorry, could not resist. I think it would be great but you may have something there in that it may take a few lesser prospects ... again I offer Escobar & Brentz. Absorbing Sean Marshall's contract helps but I'd throw in Mujica and do a contract trade.
Drek717 said:
If I was to spitball a deal for Cueto I'd guess something like this:
Cueto + Marshall for Cespedes + one of Webster/Ranaudo/RDLR/Barnes + Travis Shaw + Noe Ramirez + Wendell Rijo. You could probably swap Sean Coyle for Rijo, maybe talk them into Asuaje instead of Rijo but I'd doubt that. Shaw would be a nice piece for them as 1B has been a black hole and having Shaw would let them defer some risk by signing a one year vet to fill the gap. Adam LaRoche for example just had his option declined and is 35. A one year deal for nice money could land him and when teamed with Cespedes would massively overhaul their offense. If Mesoraco continues to hit like last year while Bruce and Votto bounce back from very poor seasons they could then have the best offense in the NL in a GFIN move before having to resign some of their pitchers and likely losing Aroldis Chapman to FA after 2016 (hence why they'd probably like Noe Ramirez). When that rebuild does hit they would then have their own in-house OF options to replace Cespedes, Shaw could replace LaRoche, and they would have Blandino/Rijo on the horizon to handle up the middle.
Notably, Rosenthal says that the Rockies are telling clubs that they will not accept a return that does not provide fair value for the healthy production levels of both players.
pdub said:Cueto would be 29-ish when his time comes to be a free agent, with another great season he'll certainly command a typical 6 year/$120M package.
TigerBlood said:
Just to be that guy,,, if Cueto has another great season he'll command a far larger deal than that, probably 7/150+. He and Lester are very comparable pitchers, but Cueto will be hitting the market a year younger. Your point still stands though, and I agree. I don't think Boston would trade away anything of value for a 1 year rental, unless they could make sure there would be some sort of 4-5 year contract extension.
jimbobim said:Fascinating read .
http://ken.arneson.name/2014/11/10-things-i-believe-about-baseball-without-evidence/
Just one part that I found fascinating
Belief Without Evidence #7: SQL-reliant GMs don’t value the third dimension of #6 enough
In a vast sea of unordered pitches from an unordered group of pitchers, you will get a randomly-distributed plethora of good pitches to hit, so the numbers will all work out in the end. So you acquire hitters based on these vast seas of data, ignoring what the batter does with difficult pitches to hit, because in the long run, they don’t matter much.
But against a good pitcher on a good day who does not give you a good pitch to hit, what do those batters do? Do they hit a ball hard if they don’t get a good pitch to hit?
To me, the biggest difference between the A’s in the playoffs and the Giants in the playoffs is Pablo Sandoval. Because there may not be anyone in baseball right now better than Sandoval who does damage even when he does not get a good pitch to hit. He can turn pitches in the dirt, in his eyes, and/or six inches off the plate into a hit. He’s almost immune to prediction state manipulation by opposing pitchers. And Hunter Pence, though not as extreme as Sandoval, has similar characteristics.
The A’s simply do not pursue those types of players. Players like Sandoval tend to have low OBPs, because they swing at so many bad pitches. Minor leaguers with that profile flop far more than they succeed, so they’re a bad risk to take. But there are times, against a good pitcher on a good day who is simply not giving hitters a good pitch to hit, that it is valuable to have a player who often does damage even with a bad pitch to hit. And those times happen more often in the playoffs.
A technology that used a system of evaluating players in which high-level statistics of player value were derived from a low-level {speed, location, movement, swing path, prediction state} matrix would better identify the true value of such players.
phenweigh said:[SIZE=12pt]Here is a roster projection based on and trading Cespedes + prospects for Cueto + Marshall, and signing Sandoval and Lester[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]With a reported ~$50M to spend, they should be able to swing this and maybe add Ross, if they aren’t comfortable with letting Butler and Lavarnway compete for backup catcher.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]STARTING PITCHERS[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Clay Buchholz[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Johnny Cueto[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Rubby de la Rosa[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Joe Kelly[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Jon Lester[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]RELIEF PITCHERS[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Burke Badenhop[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Sean Marshall[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Edward Mujica[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Junichi Tazawa[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Brandon Workman[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Steven Wright[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Koji Uehara[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]STARTING POSITION PLAYERS[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]C Christian Vazquez[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]1B Mike Napoli[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]2B Dustin Pedroia[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]SS Xander Boegarts[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]3B Pablo Sandoval[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]OF Mookie Betts[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]OF Rusney Castillo[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]OF Shane Victorino[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]DH David Ortiz[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]BENCH[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Butler or Lavarnway or Ross[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Allen Craig[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Brock Holt [/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Daniel Nava[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]This looks like a serious contending team to me. I’d rather have a good defensive infielder on the bench instead of Craig or Nava, but I’m not sure how that reasonably happens. There would be pitching prospect depth in Pawtucket to cover typical pitching injuries and/or trade needs. [/SIZE]
sean1562 said:
i have zero confidence in that rotation.
sean1562 said:
i have zero confidence in that rotation.
sean1562 said:
i have zero confidence in that rotation.
edit: whoa sorry, really just skimmed through and saw bucholz and cueto at the top and made a stupid post. i apologize. that is a decent roatation with lester and cueto. are we assuming castillo and betts are 3-5 win players next year? a roattion that replaces shields with lester seems more likely and not nearly as good. but i am of the mind that we will really be competing for a WC spot and dont really expect us to be a top tier team next season
yea, i should have read the thing, stupid mistake on my part. im not sure they will be able to make that happen but it could be a decent rotation if bucholz bounces back and de la rosa proves he is more than a set up guy/potential closer.phenweigh said:
Maybe I shouldn't have listed the pitchers alphabetically, but I'm not a fan of designating #1 through #5 starters. Major league baseball doesn't really work like a high school tennis match.
Yeah, I brain farted on that one. Was looking at their least productive positions last year and 1B was awful because Votto missed so much time. As a result they'd likely want something more like Coyle + Rijo or Marrero + Rijo as opposed to Shaw, since a 1B won't do much for them. Maybe Cecchini as well since he'd be a potential replacement for Fraizer if they want to flip him soon as he is getting into his arb. years.sean1562 said:
why would they even sign a vet 1B to "fill the gap"? Votto is an MVP caliber player when healthy and he is generally pretty healthy outside of last year. why would they be interested in shaw at all with votto signed through 2024? he is their starting 1B for many, many years, no matter how badly he sucks.