Your 2015 Boston Red Sox

absintheofmalaise · Jul 31, 2014

In my lifetime said:
Hopefully that is a little better

Nope. Put it in a spreadsheet and then use this to make a chart to post in here.

Al Zarilla · Jul 31, 2014

In my lifetime said:
RF Victorino/Allen(wouldn't be leadoff) - depending on Victorino's health
2B Pedey
DH Papi
1B Napoli
LF Cespedes
SS X
3B WMB/Holt
CF JBJ
C Vasquez/Ross?

Bench: Nava, Betts, above not starting

The line up is markedly improved. There is an asset in Allen that could be moved and then use Holt as a back up for Victorino when he gets hurt.
Of course, 3B/SS is in some flux, with possible help at AAA if needed

The two first names got you with Craig. Thanks for putting this together.

DennyDoyle'sBoil · Jul 31, 2014

I'm not understanding the math. Where does the $126 million projected number come from?

It looks like $95 million for current commitments plus the money to the Dodgers, and then you're got about $16 million in the green projections.

That's $114m. What makes up the other $12m? Assuming about $22 million for benefits and bullpen replacement plus last 3, and $14 million for Koji, I come up with $140 million, leaving another $49 million for FAs and trade deadline acquisitions to stay under the cap. I'm sure there's $12 million I'm missing, but the formatting is making it hard for me to figure out where.

Bergs · Jul 31, 2014

I'm not understanding it either. I did a quick convert to table. I'm not vouching for the accuracy of the numbers.

This was a Pain in the Ass
	2014	2015
Ortiz, David	$15,500,000	$16,000,000
Napoli, Mike	$16,000,000	$16,000,000
Uehara, Koji	$4,250,000	$14,000,000
Victorino, Shane	$13,000,000	$13,000,000
Pedroia, Dustin	$12,625,000	$12,600,000
Buchholz, Clay	$7,950,000	$12,200,000
Cespedes, Yoenis	$10,500,000	$10,500,000
Craig, Allen	$2,750,000	$5,500,000
Mujica, Edward	$4,750,000	$4,750,000
Ross, David	$3,100,000	$3,200,000
Tazawa, Junichi	$1,275,000	$2,500,000
Nava, Daniel	$556,500	$1,400,000
Herrera, Jonathan	$1,300,000	$1,400,000
Middlebrooks, Will	$540,500	$1,400,000
Kelly, Joe	$523,000	$550,000
Breslow, Craig	$3,825,000	$100,000
Badenhop, Burke	$2,150,000	FA
Carp, Mike	$1,400,000	Arb 2
Punto Trade	$3,900,000	$3,900,000
Total	$105,895,000	$119,000,000

Tyrone Biggums · Jul 31, 2014

So far this is what I have

SS Boegarts
2B Pedroia
DH Ortiz
RF Cespedes
1B Napoli
LF Craig
3B Middlebrooks
CF JBJ
C. Vazquez

Bench
Victorino, Butler, Holt, Hassan

Rotation
Lester (5/120)
Buchholz
Vacant (Hamels/Lee trade?)
RDLR
Webster

Bullpen
Uehara (1/10)
Tazawa
Britton
Hembree
Workman
Kelly
Wright

Declined option on Breslow. Sign Cespedes 3/45

Sprowl · Jul 31, 2014

We still have the waiver-wire month to go, so here are a few grains of salt to sprinkle over 2015 projections:

Napoli - at 16m, he'll surely clear waivers. He's a playoff-experienced slugging first baseman. If another team's big bopper gets injured before August 30, Vesuvius might relocate.

Kelly might be in the rotation, or might be in the bullpen.

Badenhop performed too well to re-sign here for the slot of 'undervalued reliever'. I'm surprised he didn't get traded in July.

RedOctober3829 · Jul 31, 2014

Buster Olney on BBTN: Rival execs expect the Red Sox to go after James Shields in the offseason. He's a natural innings eater on a staff that desperately needs one.

radsoxfan · Jul 31, 2014

Sprowl said:
We still have the waiver-wire month to go, so here are a few grains of salt to sprinkle over 2015 projections:

Napoli - at 16m, he'll surely clear waivers. He's a playoff-experienced slugging first baseman. If another team's big bopper gets injured before August 30, Vesuvius might relocate.

Why would Nap clear waivers? I'd expect at least a couple of teams would be very content paying him for this year's playoff run and then 16M next season on a 1 year deal. That's not a bad value at all.

There has been a lot of Mookie Betts talk over multiple threads, but to consolidate my thoughts about him for next season here….

I have zero worry that Mookie will get plenty of playing time with the 2015 Boston Red Sox. Super-sub, some platooning for Bradley, injury replacement, etc. Maybe there will be more trades that end up creating one starting spot next year, but even if there isn't he will be just fine.

If Mookie continues to hit like this, he has absolutely nothing to worry about.

budcrew08 · Aug 1, 2014

RedOctober3829 said:
Buster Olney on BBTN: Rival execs expect the Red Sox to go after James Shields in the offseason. He's a natural innings eater on a staff that desperately needs one.

Hasn't Shields been horrific at Fenway?

Al Zarilla · Aug 1, 2014

budcrew08 said:
Hasn't Shields been horrific at Fenway?

Could be it's about the team he always had to pitch to there.

Doctor G · Aug 1, 2014

I wouldn't be surprised to see them flip Cespedes to Miami as the feature part of a deal for Stanton. He would give Loria a potentially cheaper Cuban born star to keep fans from abandoning the Marlins.
there is no way that Cespedes gets paid as much as Stanton going forward.
The rest of this season might very well be a showcase for the Marlins as to who goes with Yoenis.

Red(s)HawksFan · Aug 1, 2014

Doctor G said:
I wouldn't be surprised to see them flip Cespedes to Miami as the feature part of a deal for Stanton. He would give Loria a potentially cheaper Cuban born star to keep fans from abandoning the Marlins.
there is no way that Cespedes gets paid as much as Stanton going forward.
The rest of this season might very well be a showcase for the Marlins as to who goes with Yoenis.

Can we stop with this Cespedes to the Marlins garbage. He's signed for one more year then he's a free agent. Stanton is under team control for longer than that. He's not going to be a cheap anything. He's owed $10.5M next year and will surely require more than that to extend.

If the Marlins are worried about paying Stanton $25M+, I don't think Cespedes, six years older, at upwards of $18M per year is any kind of attractive consolation prize.

Plympton91 · Aug 1, 2014

I think it is still to early to say, particularly for CF and one of 3B and SS. I expect there are still some additional trades to come.

Buzzkill Pauley · Aug 1, 2014

Power-hitting was the major problem for the Sox in 2014, and now that's basically been addressed by SELL SELL SELLING the major-league rotation.

There are no additional offseason moves the team needs to make regarding the lineup for 2015 in order to field a highly entertaining offense -- especially at Fenway.

However, if I were GM I'd strongly pursue Jason Heyward, assuming he was open to a FMV extension. There are only 7 LHH on the Sox 40-man roster, except Ortiz none are credible threats to hit more than 10-15 HR, and the only L/S hitters who may be added to the 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 draft are Swihart and Shaw.

As for the pitching staff, signing Lester and Uehara out of FA should be sufficient to contend.

RedOctober3829 · Aug 1, 2014

Buzzkill Pauley said:
Power-hitting was the major problem for the Sox in 2014, and now that's basically been addressed by SELL SELL SELLING the major-league rotation.

There are no additional offseason moves the team needs to make regarding the lineup for 2015 in order to field a highly entertaining offense -- especially at Fenway.

However, if I were GM I'd strongly pursue Jason Heyward, assuming he was open to a FMV extension. There are only 7 LHH on the Sox 40-man roster, except Ortiz none are credible threats to hit more than 10-15 HR, and the only L/S hitters who may be added to the 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 draft are Swihart and Shaw.

As for the pitching staff, signing Lester and Uehara out of FA should be sufficient to contend.

I'd feel much better if they signed one of Lester/Scherzer and one of Shields/Santana/de la Rosa. Relying on 3-4 kids in the rotation for innings is very tough to do.

Buzzkill Pauley · Aug 1, 2014

RedOctober3829 said:
I'd feel much better if they signed one of Lester/Scherzer and one of Shields/Santana/de la Rosa. Relying on 3-4 kids in the rotation for innings is very tough to do.

I have more overall confidence moving forward with Joe Kelly and the Kidz(tm) than Buchholz and his Squirrels.

That being said, to contend in 2015 the Sox need both an ace and a variety of pitchers able to eat innings. The Oakland model over the past several regular seasons suggests that rotating through a number of talented mid-20's youngsters is enough to eat the innings. The Oakland model over the past several post-seasons further suggests that you still need an ace to win in October.

LostinNJ · Aug 1, 2014

Right now they have a surplus and a dearth. They have a surplus of potentially good or great guys, and a dearth of sure-fire stars. For the outfield and first base, they have Bradley, Cespedes, Craig, Victorino, and Napoli, plus Nava. If everyone is healthy, there's not enough room on the field for all of them. For the left side of the infield, there's Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, and Marrero eventually. They also have Holt and eventually Betts and Cecchini bopping around the diamond. Again, there's not room for everyone. They also have a whole bunch of starting pitchers (Buchholz, Kelly, Workman, de la Rosa, Webster, Ranaudo, Wright, Escobar, and eventually Owens and Johnson . . . but nobody who's an ace. They will likely add to this list with one or two free agent signings. Again, there won't be room for everyone, not just in Boston, but in Boston and Pawtucket together.

Obviously, they won't all stay healthy, and the prospects won't all pan out. But this is still a long list of assets: guys who are plausible future major league regulars. They don't want to squander them by trading them away too soon, or by wasting their production at AAA waiting for room on the varsity. They have some serious juggling to do to make good use of these guys in 2015 and also be ready for the post-Victorino/Napoli/Ortiz era. In a way, it's inconvenient to have so much talent coming of age all at the same time.

So Cherington needs to be looking for opportunities to clear space, hopefully in a more productive way than trading Drew for Johnson. We can expect some two- or three-for-one deals this winter.

The Gray Eagle · Aug 1, 2014

We now have like 10 pitching prospects in the high minors or majors. We are really likely going to be trading 3 or 4 of them this offseason for a very good starting pitcher.

It's impossible to say right now who might be available in the offseason in exchange for pitching prospects, as a lot of things are going to change over the next couple of months. But I am sure we are going to be exploring loads of potential starting pitcher trades.

We will surely be asking about guys like Cueto, Latos, Weaver, Price, Sale, Jordan Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez, Samardzija, Hamels, Iwakuma, Anibal Sanchez, and others. Most of those pitchers won't be available, but a couple may be, and I think we'll end up with one of them or someone similar.

We'll also look at some free agents, but they will probably all get more years than we will want to give them. I think the pitcher we all know we need is a lot more likely to come in trade.

snowmanny · Aug 1, 2014

The Gray Eagle said:
We now have like 10 pitching prospects in the high minors or majors. We are really likely going to be trading 3 or 4 of them this offseason for a very good starting pitcher.

It's impossible to say right now who might be available in the offseason in exchange for pitching prospects, as a lot of things are going to change
over the next couple of months. But I am sure we are going to be exploring loads of potential starting pitcher trades.

We will surely be asking about guys like Cueto, Latos, Weaver, Price, Sale, Jordan Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez, Samardzija, Hamels, Iwakuma,
Anibal Sanchez, and others. Most of those pitchers won't be available, but a couple may be, and I think we'll end up with one of them or someone similar.

We'll also look at some free agents, but they will probably all get more years than we will want to
give them. I think the pitcher we all know we need is a lot more likely to come in trade.

The interesting thing is that some of the examples you give put them back in the Lester situation. For example, it might seem to make sense to trade a few pitchers to the A's (after they win it all) for Samardzija and then sign him to an extension... but is he really likely to agree to only four years?
Cueto as well.

TomRicardo · Aug 1, 2014

One thing we will see is if Lester comes back. I would imagine if he was going to come back he will sign almost immediately as free agency starts. I can't imagine Billy Beane and the A's crying tampering if the Sox start talking to Lester before teams can talk. If he is serious about coming back and the Red Sox are serious about signing him then I doubt he gets to Thanksgiving unsigned.

I would really like for Betts to play some SS when he gets optioned back to Pawtucket. I am not against Bogaerts playing SS but I think Betts if he is going to have a role on the 2015 Red Sox will best be served being ready to play 3B, SS, 2B as well the OF positions. You could use him as a RHH compliment to Brock Holt when Victorinko is injured next year if Betts survives the offseason.

I would love to trade soem of the surplus young arms for Hamels. I am not sure Amaro understands how horrible his team is and that he is carrying a bunch of expensive depreciating values but he would be best served picking something now for Hamels and trying to start his rebuild process. They have very little pitching in their system and they have holes in their rotation.

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Aug 1, 2014

Mentioned in another thread but I'm putting it here again since it's appropriate, but it seems really obvious that the Sox are stockpiling a combination of vets and prospects to turn into Stanton.
My predictions for the offseason: We'll see Cespedes, Betts and Merrero dealt to Miami along with two of RDLR, Webster, Ranaudo, Workman, Barnes all sent to Miami for Stanton and a reliever. Sox will pick up half of the dinero remaining to Cespedes. They sign Lester.

Rotation:
Lester
Clay
Joe Kelly
?
?

Field:
C Vazquez
1B Nap/Craig
2B Pedroia
SS X
3B Craig/WMB
LF Stanton/Craig
CF JBJr/Vic
RF Vic/Stanton
DH Ortiz/Stanton

Cellar-Door · Aug 1, 2014

The Stanton stuff is getting ridiculous.

snowmanny · Aug 1, 2014

I sort of feel the same way about the Lester stuff.

Harry Hooper · Aug 1, 2014

snowmanny said:
I sort of feel the same way about the Lester stuff.

Have the Sox marked down the Lester jerseys?

snowmanny · Aug 1, 2014

Papelbon's Poutine said:
That's a bit vague. What in particular?

Some folks (including just above) have him penciled in as a starter next year. This would require an absolute change in philosophy for John Henry, which could happen since Henry is sensitive to popular opinion and has changed philosophies before. But the greater likelihood, in my mind, is that Lester is not coming
back.

Mighty Joe Young · Aug 1, 2014

Papelbon's Poutine said:
Especially the Cespedes for Stanton stuff.

Maybe the Dopes can set up a filter that auto-deletes any post containing the word "Stanton" .. excluding this one of course

geoduck no quahog · Aug 12, 2014

Didn't know where to post this, but I assume several of us have listened to Alex Speier's interview with Olney on his podcast concerning the Red Sox youth movement (starts about halfway through).

Highlights, from what i can remember (corrections welcomed):

Bogaerts: Xander said he's lost the ability to whip his right (top) hand through the strike zone, and he doesn't know why (no injury). This is causing him to lose bat control and bat speed and to miss balls because he's starting his swing earlier. Red Sox say Bogaerts is the SS of the near future. Period.

Bradley: Historically terrible batting. No one knows if it can be fixed because it's so bad and there's nothing in his past to build on. Speier mentions 4 of 27 historically bad young hitters that managed to carry on and that the prospect that Bradley's horrendous approach at the plate is going to improve is slim. They acknowledge he's the best CF they've seen on a regular basis, but they don't understand how that, combined with truly historical poor hitting, results in a positive WAR.

Betts: In a nutshell, CF of the future. Needs as much time in AAA as possible to get comfortable with the position. Impact player.

Vazquez / Swihart: Great problem to have. Vazquez a defensive game-changer, Swihart probably the best prospect in all of baseball - considering his position. A waste to have both of them on the team in 2016 and something's gotta give.

I've missed a lot of what was said.

Snodgrass'Muff · Aug 22, 2014

I was going to start a new thread, but then I remembered this one existed and this fits really well here. Currently, the Sox have seven outfielders on the 40 man roster who are all going to be making a case for a spot on the 25 man roster come April. Obviously some shifting around the diamond will be necessary, at the least, to make this all work or perhaps they'll go the into the trade market and move some of the excess. I'm not considering Holt an outfielder. With the options they've amassed, he should return to being a utility infielder who serves as emergency depth for the outfield in case the Ebola virus makes its way to Boston.

I see two categories of players right now in the outfield.

Pure outfielders: Victorino, JBJ, Cespedes
Outfield/Infield options: Betts, Nava, Craig, Castillo

There are a number of starters who are entrenched for next year.

DH: Papi
C: Vazquez
1B: Napoli
2B: Pedroia
SS/3B: Bogaerts
OF: Cespedes

So that leaves two outfield spots and one of SS or 3B to fill along with the bench. Allen Craig is really the biggest question mark of the bunch for me. His upside is enormous, but his health is a serious question. Based on some of DRS's posts on his injury, I'm leaning toward him being done as an outfielder long term. If that turns out to be accurate, I wonder if the Sox will sit down with him and ask him to be a bench guy a la Mike Carp (as suggested in the Castillo thread by OCD) for one season with eyes on replacing Napoli in 2016? That would give Sam Travis more time to develop and would make Travis Shaw depth rather than the starter, which he may be better suited for. If Craig agrees to not put up a stink next year while serving that purpose, you could conceivably use all of the pieces under control next year without having to move anyone.

Castillo takes over in center with Victorino in right to give you a starting outfield of Cespedes, Castillo, Victorino. Bradley starts the year in Pawtucket as depth. Betts becomes the super utility guy you try to squeeze 500 ABs out of, moving around the diamond as necessary, capable of spelling Holt, Bogaerts, Pedroia and the entire outfield. Holt starts the year as your third baseman and Betts has the opportunity to move him to the super utility spot if he's swinging the bat well enough, whether that's through a move back to short or to third. No, he hasn't played third yet, and he was move off of short early but if you take a look through the Betts thread, you'll see that his moving off third wasn't exactly because he couldn't handle it. Had Marrero not been on the same roster, he may have had a chance to stick there. The question about his defense was his arm, and it wasn't a clear "no" so much as "it's borderline." I wouldn't be surprised if he could be an adequate defensive shortstop and an improvement on Bogaerts in the field.

By the end of 2015 we could be looking at:

C: Vazquez, 1B: Napoli, 2B: Pedroia, SS: Betts, 3B: Bogaerts, LF: Cespedes, CF: Castillo, RF: Victorino: DH: Ortiz, BN: Holt, BN: Craig, BN: Nava, BN: Ross (or Butler or FA) with JBJ on the shuttle in case of injuries, which will likely happen to Victorino and Craig at various points throughout the season. Then in 2016, Craig takes over at 1st, Castillo moves to right, Betts or Bradley take over in center and you fill in the roster with a bench FA or promotion.

Doing this means trade chips can be used to address the rotation and bullpen and what you are betting on is Betts' athleticism allowing him to handle one of the two left side of the infield positions, Bogaerts taking a step forward, Castillo being at least an average player overall and getting one full season out of a combination of Victorino, Craig and JBJ. There is a ton of flexibility on the roster for taking advantage of platoon splits and absorbing the impact of injuries. And best of all, it addresses two of areas of weakness the offense has suffered for most of the season: power and speed.

If Castillo is as fast as advertised and is a 30 SB threat, and they get even half a season of a healthy Victorino, the Red Sox will be an above average speed team again. If Castillo has even 15 home run power an the kind of line drive swing he's been described as having, then between him, Cespedes, Papi, Craig and Napoli, they should be an above average power hitting team again. Not necessarily a better than average home run hitting team, but they should hit a ton of doubles and have their fair share of triples. The 2013 team proved you don't need to be a top home run hitting team to lead the league in slugging.

It's entirely possible that one or two of the outfield options gets moved in a deal or two, but when I squint just the right way, I can see a way to make the current roster work without moving anyone.

Minneapolis Millers · Aug 22, 2014

I like your creativity, Snod, but Mookie hasn't played any SS since 2012. He's only played 14 games there, total, and made 9 errors in just 78 chances. Yikes. I think there is an extremely tiny chance that he would be starting at SS for the Sox by the end of '15 - or ever, really.

Lose Remerswaal · Aug 22, 2014

Minneapolis Millers said:
I like your creativity, Snod, but Mookie hasn't played any SS since 2012. He's only played 14 games there, total, and made 9 errors in just 78 chances. Yikes. I think there is an extremely tiny chance that he would be starting at SS for the Sox by the end of '15 - or ever, really.

So what? When did BROCKHOLT last play First Base before he played it for the Sox this year?

When did BROCKHOLT last play RF before playing it here this year? CF??? LF????

Mookie Betts can learn SS in the offseason and in Spring Training. With Butterfield teaching him (like he did Jeter), he should be able to reach his ability level by 2015

LostinNJ · Aug 22, 2014

Seriously doubt we'll ever see Betts at shortstop. If they thought he had a chance to play the position at the major league level, they would never have moved him off it. The fact that they had other shortstops in the system is irrelevant. You don't move a guy off of one of the premium defensive positions in the low minors unless you're sure he can't play it.

When they look at the whole system, do they see the shortstop of the future anywhere? Bogaerts seems to be proving he can't field well enough, and Marrero has not given any sign he will be able to hit in the majors.

YTF · Aug 22, 2014

Snodgrass'Muff said:
I was going to start a new thread, but then I remembered this one existed and this fits really well here. Currently, the Sox have seven outfielders on the 40 man roster who are all going to be making a case for a spot on the 25 man roster come April. Obviously some shifting around the diamond will be necessary, at the least, to make this all work or perhaps they'll go the into the trade market and move some of the excess. I'm not considering Holt an outfielder. With the options they've amassed, he should return to being a utility infielder who serves as emergency depth for the outfield in case the Ebola virus makes its way to Boston.

I see two categories of players right now in the outfield.

Pure outfielders: Victorino, JBJ, Cespedes
Outfield/Infield options: Betts, Nava, Craig, Castillo

There are a number of starters who are entrenched for next year.

DH: Papi
C: Vazquez
1B: Napoli
2B: Pedroia
SS/3B: Bogaerts
OF: Cespedes

So that leaves two outfield spots and one of SS or 3B to fill along with the bench. Allen Craig is really the biggest question mark of the bunch for me. His upside is enormous, but his health is a serious question. Based on some of DRS's posts on his injury, I'm leaning toward him being done as an outfielder long term. If that turns out to be accurate, I wonder if the Sox will sit down with him and ask him to be a bench guy a la Mike Carp (as suggested in the Castillo thread by OCD) for one season with eyes on replacing Napoli in 2016? That would give Sam Travis more time to develop and would make Travis Shaw depth rather than the starter, which he may be better suited for. If Craig agrees to not put up a stink next year while serving that purpose, you could conceivably use all of the pieces under control next year without having to move anyone.

Castillo takes over in center with Victorino in right to give you a starting outfield of Cespedes, Castillo, Victorino. Bradley starts the year in Pawtucket as depth. Betts becomes the super utility guy you try to squeeze 500 ABs out of, moving around the diamond as necessary, capable of spelling Holt, Bogaerts, Pedroia and the entire outfield. Holt starts the year as your third baseman and Betts has the opportunity to move him to the super utility spot if he's swinging the bat well enough, whether that's through a move back to short or to third. No, he hasn't played third yet, and he was move off of short early but if you take a look through the Betts thread, you'll see that his moving off third wasn't exactly because he couldn't handle it. Had Marrero not been on the same roster, he may have had a chance to stick there. The question about his defense was his arm, and it wasn't a clear "no" so much as "it's borderline." I wouldn't be surprised if he could be an adequate defensive shortstop and an improvement on Bogaerts in the field.

By the end of 2015 we could be looking at:

C: Vazquez, 1B: Napoli, 2B: Pedroia, SS: Betts, 3B: Bogaerts, LF: Cespedes, CF: Castillo, RF: Victorino: DH: Ortiz, BN: Holt, BN: Craig, BN: Nava, BN: Ross (or Butler or FA) with JBJ on the shuttle in case of injuries, which will likely happen to Victorino and Craig at various points throughout the season. Then in 2016, Craig takes over at 1st, Castillo moves to right, Betts or Bradley take over in center and you fill in the roster with a bench FA or promotion.

Doing this means trade chips can be used to address the rotation and bullpen and what you are betting on is Betts' athleticism allowing him to handle one of the two left side of the infield positions, Bogaerts taking a step forward, Castillo being at least an average player overall and getting one full season out of a combination of Victorino, Craig and JBJ. There is a ton of flexibility on the roster for taking advantage of platoon splits and absorbing the impact of injuries. And best of all, it addresses two of areas of weakness the offense has suffered for most of the season: power and speed.

If Castillo is as fast as advertised and is a 30 SB threat, and they get even half a season of a healthy Victorino, the Red Sox will be an above average speed team again. If Castillo has even 15 home run power an the kind of line drive swing he's been described as having, then between him, Cespedes, Papi, Craig and Napoli, they should be an above average power hitting team again. Not necessarily a better than average home run hitting team, but they should hit a ton of doubles and have their fair share of triples. The 2013 team proved you don't need to be a top home run hitting team to lead the league in slugging.

It's entirely possible that one or two of the outfield options gets moved in a deal or two, but when I squint just the right way, I can see a way to make the current roster work without moving anyone.

Snod, I enjoy the thought you put into your posts and I'm not going to debate Betts at SS one way or the other but have a question that may be sort of related. I don't know that I put a whole lot of stock into the stories of Bogaerts offensive struggles tied to him playing 3rd other than the reports of it getting so big that THEY got into his head. That said do the Sox move him back to 3rd again?

Snodgrass'Muff · Aug 22, 2014

YTF said:
Snod, I enjoy the thought you put into your posts and I'm not going to debate Betts at SS one way or the other but have a question that may be sort of related. I don't know that I put a whole lot of stock into the stories of Bogaerts offensive struggles tied to him playing 3rd other than the reports of it getting so big that THEY got into his head. That said do the Sox move him back to 3rd again?

If Betts ends up at short it would mean Bogaerts has proven he can't handle the position. Xander will very likely get first crack at it.

That said, I don't find it very hard to imagine Betts being a better defensive shortstop than Bogaerts.

Savin Hillbilly · Aug 22, 2014

LostinNJ said:
Seriously doubt we'll ever see Betts at shortstop. If they thought he had a chance to play the position at the major league level, they would never have moved him off it. The fact that they had other shortstops in the system is irrelevant. You don't move a guy off of one of the premium defensive positions in the low minors unless you're sure he can't play it.

When they look at the whole system, do they see the shortstop of the future anywhere? Bogaerts seems to be proving he can't field well enough, and Marrero has not given any sign he will be able to hit in the majors.

This seems a little harsh. He was looking like a guy who might hit in the majors in Portland. He's gotten off to a bad start in AAA, yes, but it's only 160-some PA yet.

LostinNJ · Aug 22, 2014

I'm not saying Marrero won't hit, but they can't be certain that he will. Assuming they're doing what we're doing, whom do they see as the shortstop in 2015 and beyond?

Plympton91 · Aug 22, 2014

LostinNJ said:
I'm not saying Marrero won't hit, but they can't be certain that he will. Assuming they're doing what we're doing, whom do they see as the shortstop in 2015 and beyond?

I would think they'd be hoping Bogaerts will figure it out and if not let holt play thee a lot in 2015. For 2016, rinse and repeat with Marerro also in the mix hopefully. They're fine there, as long as they leave Holt in the supersub role.

The Boomer · Aug 23, 2014

Minneapolis Millers said:
I like your creativity, Snod, but Mookie hasn't played any SS since 2012. He's only played 14 games there, total, and made 9 errors in just 78 chances. Yikes. I think there is an extremely tiny chance that he would be starting at SS for the Sox by the end of '15 - or ever, really.

It's all projection. Castillo hasn't played at all since 2012 or ever as a professional. SSS notwithstanding, my eyeballing of Betts playing 2B in the minors last season suggested that he was a plus plus MIF in terms of range. He made incredible plays ranging to both his right and left at 2B.

Having players with the athleticism of Betts and Castillo as regulars could be part of a winning formula. Last year's championship was made possible by in his prime Ellsbury and fountain of youth Victorino (though obviously now on the downside of his career). Unless JBJ can hit enough to reclaim CF for the Sox, an outfield combo of Cespedes, in his prime Castillo (trusting Sox scouts) and phenom Betts will be fun to watch. IMO Betts can adequately handle SS and probably has more range at that position, despite a more or less than average arm, than just about anybody the Sox have ever played there. Only his arm probably put him behind Drew (now gone), Bogaerts and Marrerro in terms of how the Sox projected potential shortstops defensively.

While Betts is predictably part of a trade package to acquire that missing pitching ace over the winter, he is the most exciting athletic prospect I've seen the Sox develop in memory. He apparently has the baseball instincts to match his gifts. Last year, I figured that his floor was Uncle Terry Schumpert. Now, a Joe Morgan type ceiling isn't foreclosed for him yet in my opinion. That CF catch last night was the top play this morning for ESPN.

Next spring, I hope that the Sox settle on his role to start spring training and simply turn him loose whether as a super utility player or a positional regular. Depending on what else happens with their lineup, you could make a case that he is probably a better 2B than organizational icon Pedroia going forward. However, even if his best position is blocked to him in the foreseeable future, he might also be the best overall CF, RF, 3B or SS that the Sox can put out there next season.

He has shown me enough to believe that it will probably be a mistake to trade him away for anyone probably available to plug some other lineup hole. The Sox might still outbid other teams for Hamels with a trade package revolving around their surplus of major league ready pitching. Only Stanton, if he is really available, would justify a trade that includes Betts.

The Boomer · Aug 23, 2014

I should have mentioned that only Ellsbury compared to Betts in terms of his overall athleticism as a homegrown prospect signed and developed by the Sox. I'm having trouble thinking of anybody else in their category.

Buzzkill Pauley · Aug 23, 2014

The Boomer said:
I should have mentioned that only Ellsbury compared to Betts in terms of his overall athleticism as a homegrown prospect signed and developed by the Sox. I'm having trouble thinking of anybody else in their category.

Hanley was a pretty terrific all-around athlete in his early 20s.

His 50 SB seasons dropped off as he filled out, though.

findguapo · Aug 23, 2014

Betts and Craig playing every day the rest of the year should add a lot of clarity to what to do with them next year.

If the Red Sox comfortably believe Craig can be healthy coming in to spring training next year, I think a Napoli trade needs to be considered. That will free up 16 million dollars to use for pitching, and give Craig a place to play.

Plympton91 · Aug 23, 2014

Here's what I'd shoot for barring any trades, which is highly unlikely but not worth guessing what they'll be. The planning should be for 2015 and 2016.

2015:

DH: Papi; C: Vazquez, Lavarnway; 1B: Napoli, Nava, 2B: Pedy, SS: Xander; 3B: free agent/Holt; LF: Cespedes; Craig, CF and RF: Victorino if healthy is the backup and competion between Castillo, Betts, and Bradley for 1 spot with two going to Pawtucket

2016:

DH: Papi; C: Vazquez, Swihart; 1B: Craig/Nava or Shaw; 2B: Pedy; SS: Marrero; 3B: Xander / Holt; LF: Cespedes or better; CF and RF: Two of Betts, Castillio and Bradley with the other backing up.

I still don't see any glut. Brentz and Hassan still have options as depth; Margot won't be in the picture until 2017 at the earliest. That covers all the outfielders.

Puffy · Aug 23, 2014

findguapo said:
Betts and Craig playing every day the rest of the year should add a lot of clarity to what to do with them next year.

If the Red Sox comfortably believe Craig can be healthy coming in to spring training next year, I think a Napoli trade needs to be considered. That will free up 16 million dollars to use for pitching, and give Craig a place to play.

I think this is a legitimate option - if there is any kind of logjam, I could see the Sox first trying to move those players, like Napoli (and Victorino, and even Cespedes), who are here on a short-term basis. Napoli is a guy, unlike most of the others, who has BOTH positive trade value AND is not in the plans for 2016. If Craig looks like an option, I think moving Napoli could be one way to deal with the 2015 roster.

In a way, adding Castillo on top of the current OF depth has the chance to trickle down more to guys like Middlebrooks and Napoli than Betts, Bradley, etc.

Tyrone Biggums · Aug 23, 2014

I love Snods idea of using Betts as a jack of all trades, super utility guy. Play him everywhere and treat him almost like an every day player giving everyone one day off. I believe Holt could be traded though as his value will never be higher. If this team just resigns Lester and Buchholz is odd year Clay then this team is good enough to contend. Here's how I see the roster playing out as of right now. Barring trades of course and factoring in Lester coming back since no compensation is attached. Also factoring in the chance of Uehara coming back and the option being declined on Breslow.

C (2) Vazquez, Ross
1B (3) Ortiz, Napoli, Craig
2B (1) Pedroia
SS (1) Boegarts
3B (1) Middlebrooks
OF (4) Nava Castillo Cespedes Victorino
UTIL (1) Betts
Total 13

Pitchers
SP - Lester Buchholz RDLR Kelly Webster
RP - Uehara Tazawa Layne Workman Mujica
Total 10

2 roster spots open. 1 for a solid middle reliever to come from within and one for a long reliever, most likely Wright. This is just if they keep the course as of right now...they could easily trade for Hamels or Giancarlo and really blow this plan out of the water.

pdub · Aug 23, 2014

I think all we need to be competitive is to re-sign Lester or sign Scherzer, and sign Shields. I like how our offense is shaping up and think it will be more balanced. I'm just concerned about having a rotation where an inconsistent Buchholz is considered the staff "ace" by default. Barring any sharp decline by Ortiz, I'm much more optimistic about next years offense.

mfried · Aug 23, 2014

Plympton91 said:
Here's what I'd shoot for barring any trades, which is highly unlikely but not worth guessing what they'll be. The planning should be for 2015 and 2016.

2015:

DH: Papi; C: Vazquez, Lavarnway; 1B: Napoli, Nava, 2B: Pedy, SS: Xander; 3B: free agent/Holt; LF: Cespedes; Craig, CF and RF: Victorino if healthy is the backup and competion between Castillo, Betts, and Bradley for 1 spot with two going to Pawtucket

2016:

DH: Papi; C: Vazquez, Swihart; 1B: Craig/Nava or Shaw; 2B: Pedy; SS: Marrero; 3B: Xander / Holt; LF: Cespedes or better; CF and RF: Two of Betts, Castillio and Bradley with the other backing up.

I still don't see any glut. Brentz and Hassan still have options as depth; Margot won't be in the picture until 2017 at the earliest. That covers all the outfielders.

Any sign that Lavarnway is doing a better job on either side of the ball than the last time he was with the big club? Impossible for Swihart to ascend for 2015?

The Boomer · Aug 23, 2014

Tyrone Biggums said:
I love Snods idea of using Betts as a jack of all trades, super utility guy. Play him everywhere and treat him almost like an every day player giving everyone one day off. I believe Holt could be traded though as his value will never be higher. If this team just resigns Lester and Buchholz is odd year Clay then this team is good enough to contend. Here's how I see the roster playing out as of right now. Barring trades of course and factoring in Lester coming back since no compensation is attached. Also factoring in the chance of Uehara coming back and the option being declined on Breslow.

C (2) Vazquez, Ross
1B (3) Ortiz, Napoli, Craig
2B (1) Pedroia
SS (1) Boegarts
3B (1) Middlebrooks
OF (4) Nava Castillo Cespedes Victorino
UTIL (1) Betts
Total 13

Pitchers
SP - Lester Buchholz RDLR Kelly Webster
RP - Uehara Tazawa Layne Workman Mujica
Total 10

2 roster spots open. 1 for a solid middle reliever to come from within and one for a long reliever, most likely Wright. This is just if they keep the course as of right now...they could easily trade for Hamels or Giancarlo and really blow this plan out of the water.

Betts as a super utility player has its appeal but it might be too unsettling to move a rookie around so much. However, if there was ever a rookie who might rise to such an occasion, it's probably Betts. His speed and defense won't slump.

Everyone's specific lineups are too confining. The final configuration of the 2015 roster is too unpredictable. Here is my opinion about the relatively few commitments they will make:

Pedroia is the lineup anchor and (though declining) the franchise player at 2B.
Bogaerts needs to play all year regularly at one position or another.
Keep playing Vazquez and find out who you want to back him up.
Find a way to play Betts every day.

Here is my list of what they need to do about their lineup next season:

Figure out who replaces Papi.
Find out what you've got with Bradley.
Find out what you've got with Castillo.
Find out what you've got with Cespedes.
Figure out who replaces Victorino.
Figure out if and when Craig can replace Ortiz or Napoli.
Figure out if Middlebrooks is good enough for 3B or to replace Ortiz or Napoli.
Field a lineup strong enough to assure that Nava and Holt are reserves or no better than platoon options.

For their lineup, we have 1 almost certainty followed by 11 question marks. There is too much that they need to know. During the course of next season, they need to also start figuring out if their remaining top positional prospects already in the upper minors will become part of their plan.

Their pitching is nothing but question marks but really has just a few basic questions:

Do you sign, trade for or develop your next rotation aces?
From among Buchholz and all the top level prospects on the cusp of the majors, who do you keep?
Who will be in the bullpen?

Despite nothing but question marks for their pitching, the Sox have enviable cost controlled upper level bona fide pitching prospects that probably exceed what almost every other organization possesses. The deadline trades only added to their impressive upper level lefty starter depth behind top prospect Owens. Theo has concentrated on just positional prospects with the Cubs. While Cherington has emphasized pitching prospects, the Sox are much broader overall in terms of their prospects. The Sox have enough such pitching surplus to match up well with the Cubs once they get to the point that they can't keep all of their redundant positional talent. Theo has pursued a low risk but high reward strategy in terms of acquiring veteran pitching. The Sox are pursuing more of a reasonable risk high reward strategy lately in rounding out their positional lineup.

The bottom line is that, while I can't hazard a guess at what the 2015 lineup will finally look like, this appears to be a much more interesting off season to watch than was 2012-2013 when every move that Cherington pursued turned out golden. I see Ben taking more gambles on younger up and coming talent this next off season than he did when Gomes, Victorino, Napoli, Uehara, etc. were all bought low before they each sipped the fountain of youth.

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