X Leaves the Spot for San Diego: 11 years, $280M
- Thread starter TimScribble
- Start date
The "Xander moving from SS" chatter has begun. Talking about second base and even first base. It's to accommodate Ha-Seong Kim and a very good MI prospect they have, so it's not like he's unplayable at SS; his defensive outs-above-average is high (88th %ile) but his dWar is only slightly positive (0.3) and his arm strength is only 25%ile. But if he's at 1B, SD's chance at a decent return on investment are pretty small. They'd be better off eating some money and trading him to a team that can use him at SS.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/xander-bogaerts-593428?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
https://friarsonbase.com/posts/san-diego-padres-rumors-xander-bogaerts-position-change a
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/xander-bogaerts-593428?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
https://friarsonbase.com/posts/san-diego-padres-rumors-xander-bogaerts-position-change a
.252 / .320 / .361 / .681 since May 1. Ouch.
Edit: .685 since April 15, actually. Good thing he had those first two weeks.
Edit: .685 since April 15, actually. Good thing he had those first two weeks.
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Xander’s defensive stats are kind of all over the place. DRS has him below average (-3 runs) while UZR has him very close to average (+0.5 per 150).
I’d probably be more worried about his hitting right now than his fielding or what position he plays. His loss of ISO power has been quite concerning. This is the 4th consecutive year of ISO decline for him since 2019…he’s lost cumulatively over 100 points of ISO.
The position he plays matters a great deal. If he can sustain an OPS+ of 105, that's good for SS. Less so at 2B, and much less so at 1B or LF.
He's slugging under .400. It doesn't matter what position he is playing. They didn't give him $280M to slug .400.
Yeah the position commentary was poor on my part. I should’ve just said fielding and not mentioned changing positions. My ultimate point was that his hitting has declined at a fast enough pace that the position talk may be irrelevant for him. He won’t be playable as a middle infielder pretty soon if he can’t reverse or at least stabilize that trend.
Though if his defense plays as well above average at second base, maybe he can have a home there if his hitting stabilizes at 2023 levels for the next several years. But either way, that contract is looking quite precarious to put it diplomatically
Yeah. The contract is what it is. I agree his path to being a contributing player going forward is as a solidly defensive middle infielder, with an OPS+ in the 100 range. For as many years as he can do that, he'll be at least in the range of worth his yearly salary.
But if he's playing 1B or LF, he might on the fast track to being Eric Hosmer.
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Great! Maybe Xander will be a cost-free acquisition a few trade deadlines from now.
I get the sentiment, but I am not sure we will ever end up with a true "cautionary tale" of a contract. Before Xander there was Strasburg (or, to a lesser extent, Sale), before Strasburg there was Stanton, before Stanton there was Miggy, and so on.
There will probably always be an owner willing to give up this kind of money (as well as owners unwilling to give up reasonable money, but that's a conversation for Peter Angelos), and fan bases will continue to clamor for their home team to sign their home grown stars and whine about it when they don't.
True, but the Sox were willing to give Xander a ton of money too- and even that deal looks like it would not have been a terribly good idea, less than a year in. The discipline the Sox have shown in handing out long term deals to players over a certain age is often frustrating as heck as a fan, but is probably (definitely!) the right approach (the losers of the off-season seem to often be the winners of the real one).
Heck, know that they have a lot of money to spend in the off-season, should really deviate from that approach? Thinking no although it will be hard to resist.
Heck, know that they have a lot of money to spend in the off-season, should really deviate from that approach? Thinking no although it will be hard to resist.
One of the reasons I've been patient with Bloom is my belief that long term free agent deals are, generally, a terrible bet, and you need to be very careful with them. It's not impossible to build a team that way. But you have to be really careful, and hope luck is on your side. And this past year's class has really driven that home, land mines everywhere
Xander: 265/339/395
Correa: 230/310/404
Turner: 250/303/403
Abreu: 234/291/343
Rizzo: 244/328/378
Benentendi: 272/337/352
DeGrom out until at least next August. Rodon a disaster.
They haven't all been bad -- Judge has been himself when healthy and his injury seemed fluke-ish, Verlander has produced. Dansby Swanson looks like the best of vaunted SS bunch with great D, a solid 249/333/434, and his deal was comparatively modest (only 6 more years to go in his age 29 season). But relatively speaking, Bloom crushed it this past year with Yoshida/Turner/Duvall/Jansen/Martin, even if we factor in the Kluber and Kike bombs (the latter not technically a FA deal but I'll count it) .
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I think one of the big reasons why there was a decent amount of clamor for the Sox to splurge on a FA SS was that our options were otherwise pretty grim---I *think* I was able to pull up the combined lines for every PA by a SS so far this season and their triple slash lines have been 0.228/0.292/0.357 which is.....bad. (WAR of -0.2). And relatedly, 2B has also been terrible: 0.242/0.272/0.347. So any of those FA "busts" would look pretty damn good by comparison.
Of course the difference is we knew that one or both MI was going to be at the least dicey while we waited for Story to return and so while we have gotten sub-replacement production from our MI, we also did so much more cheaply than if we had gotten---slightly better production out of one of Xander, Correa or Turner. So i think that overall the Sox were sort of in no-win territory---our MI can reasonably be accused of severely limiting our chances for getting to the postseason but the majority of the "big name" SS have also underwhelmed this year. When we were still in the running for Xander last year, I remember being concerned that some of his underlying numbers suggested that he was vulnerable to some significant decline but I was trying to talk myself into the contracts rumored at the time. SD blowing us out of the water made it a lot easier to move on, even though it still was frustrating, especially given what we were planning to roll with (with the obvious caveat that Mondesi may well ahve been a decent fill-in guy if his joints had cooperated).
Sure. All of them are positive WAR players this year and their production would be helpful on the Sox. But, they are all in year 1 of gazillion dollar deals that go on well into the next decade. Would you take any of them on at full cost this offseason?
There’s an alternate universe where the Sox offers to Xander and Abreu are accepted, the off-season is more exiting, but the current team is worse, and the future is not as bright.
Ha-Seong Kim is also an absolute stud. At age 26/27, 5 WAR last season mostly at SS and 5.8 WAR (and counting this season) mostly at 2B. BRef #s. Should have just kept him at SS.
Xander actually had a pretty similar statistical season in 2017 and bounced back well, though easier to see that happening then at age 24 than now at age 30.
Certainly SD regrets that contract big time at this point.
Xander actually had a pretty similar statistical season in 2017 and bounced back well, though easier to see that happening then at age 24 than now at age 30.
Certainly SD regrets that contract big time at this point.
Swanson, maybe (6/164 remains). The rest, no.
Fortunately, Urias and Reyes in a platoon at 2B might be just as productive as Swanson at a tiny fraction of the price. Not to mention they maintain some flexibility when the Mayers and Yorkes mature to MLB ready.
I have long thought that a strategy of simply avoiding the worst case scenario is a solid recipe to be pretty good at damn near anything. Having a bunch of old, bad players on big contracts is the worst case scenario. If you're extremely selective in handing out long, large contracts, you will at the very least retain the financial and roster flexibility to pivot when all the random shit that happens in life happens.
X's BABIP is .300 this year after many years of being well above that figure (.338, .329, .333, .362). His ISO is way down and his ground ball rate is way up (49.5%). He's also continuing a five year trend of pulling the ball less each year.
IIRC he suffered a wrist injury earlier this year and that certainly could explain why he's not driving the ball or hitting it as hard as he used it. He's actually striking out less and walking more this year than he did last year. His OPS+ is 105 which isn't a total disaster but of course the contract means it's not what they were expecting. Still, it's not my money.
If I were a betting man I'd expect a rebound of some sort from him next year, although it remains to be seen how much of one might take place.
IIRC he suffered a wrist injury earlier this year and that certainly could explain why he's not driving the ball or hitting it as hard as he used it. He's actually striking out less and walking more this year than he did last year. His OPS+ is 105 which isn't a total disaster but of course the contract means it's not what they were expecting. Still, it's not my money.
If I were a betting man I'd expect a rebound of some sort from him next year, although it remains to be seen how much of one might take place.
$280 million just put him so far in the stratosphere, that it just kind of eliminated any serious discussion of what the Sox should or shouldn't have done.
What's surprising to me, though, is that I would have thought that the rule changes would have actually made that contract a better deal than it first appeared, while making some of the closer to two-outcome guys' deals worse. Merloni talked about this during the series this weekend -- how the teams that were positioned with toolsy guys who can run and put the ball in the play are getting more value for their dollar than the Yankees' grip and rip types.
Xander is a toolsy type, and while he's never been super fast, he'll swipe a base for you and go first to third. He plays a premium position and he puts the ball in play, so you would have thought going into this year that what might have seemed like a ridiculous contract was maybe actually a better contract than it might have seemed before a pitch clock, no shift world.
Which brings me to what I think is the most surprising Xander stat and one of the reasons why this year has been a disappointment. He has always been a fantastic two strike hitter. Not so this year. His 2-strike OBP is .267 and SLG is .532. Compare that to last year (.362/.687) and career (.291/.639).
He's getting on base far less with two strikes and he's doing less when he puts it in play. In a year when you would have thought that 2 strike hitting would be up for contact good-eye guys. It's really weird. But it's also a small sample, and the contract is 11 years.
What's surprising to me, though, is that I would have thought that the rule changes would have actually made that contract a better deal than it first appeared, while making some of the closer to two-outcome guys' deals worse. Merloni talked about this during the series this weekend -- how the teams that were positioned with toolsy guys who can run and put the ball in the play are getting more value for their dollar than the Yankees' grip and rip types.
Xander is a toolsy type, and while he's never been super fast, he'll swipe a base for you and go first to third. He plays a premium position and he puts the ball in play, so you would have thought going into this year that what might have seemed like a ridiculous contract was maybe actually a better contract than it might have seemed before a pitch clock, no shift world.
Which brings me to what I think is the most surprising Xander stat and one of the reasons why this year has been a disappointment. He has always been a fantastic two strike hitter. Not so this year. His 2-strike OBP is .267 and SLG is .532. Compare that to last year (.362/.687) and career (.291/.639).
He's getting on base far less with two strikes and he's doing less when he puts it in play. In a year when you would have thought that 2 strike hitting would be up for contact good-eye guys. It's really weird. But it's also a small sample, and the contract is 11 years.
The entire Padres team is setting records for clutch futility this year. It's remarkable, they are 6-19 in one run games and 0-10 in extra innings. They are all pressing terribly. And such things can be contagious.
I thought it had been reported that the red sox were aware that he was managing a wrist issue when he was still here?
Lol I shouldn't have. I think I've got too comfortable quoting myself all day in the minor league daily threads.
I was just curious what I posted about it. I can delete, though.
I believe the wrist injury is not new this year. He's had problems with that wrist dating back to at least 2021. At the very least, the cortizone shot he got in it during spring training was described as addressing something that bothers him every spring. That it seems to have become chronic might explain the precipitous drop in his ISO over the last couple years. I recall he got hit on the other wrist back in 2017 and struggled all season to drive the ball and basically got by hitting the other way a ton. Might be a similar thing going on now only he doesn't appear to be getting better.
I think that's true, but he also aggravated it in SD this year and took a cortisone shot at one point.
The Padres have definitely been unlucky this year, underperforming their Pythatg W-L by 10 games. Problem is, it's August 21, so they are going need more than a simple regression to the mean to make up 6 games in the WC race. And this was the year the window was open the most.
Xander though, is producing almost shockingly in line with his underlying numbers.
BA/xBA: 265/254
SLG/xSLG: 395/405
wOBA/xwOBA: 323/325
The power has been dropping for a while, and that's continued this year. Tough to see it coming back.
Xander though, is producing almost shockingly in line with his underlying numbers.
BA/xBA: 265/254
SLG/xSLG: 395/405
wOBA/xwOBA: 323/325
The power has been dropping for a while, and that's continued this year. Tough to see it coming back.
We'll see. I'm not convinced yet. But it's possible. But here's the thing. Critics of Bloom will be critical either way. If X performs like a stud, they'll say that Bloom was a fool for not signing him. If X performs like a dud, they'll say, yeah SD outbid Bloom, but Bloom DID offer X a humongous contract and got lucky that SD stepped in to save his bacon.
I think any smart team would love to not have players after age 33 and they played that contract well. They’re likely going to have Devers crap years but since he’s young, it may only be for 2-4 of them.
That goes for any GM, really, and it's part of the job. Bloom won't get that benefit of the doubt like Theo did until he wins more.
Even winning a WS doesn't immunize a GM from criticism (see Dombrowski, Dave).
I'm not happy because I really like Xander, but when I remember my brother doing the whole doom and gloom story when Xander signed with SD. That the deal is not wroking out in its first year was a bit unexpected.
Two - one in spring training, and another in July. It gave him a little bit of a boost then, which may be wearing off.
A competent SS who is OPSing in the .700 to .750 range isn't nothing. But .100 points of OPS surely makes a difference if you're paying $25M a year for it. For the next 10 years.
I expect he'll rebound, but if this is a chronic problem, his overall numbers may be greatly dragged down for the rest of his career.
If you guys are like me I like tracking comp picks received for players leaving. In our case Kristian Campbell has officially signed on (Jul-23) after being drafted in the 4th round. He is putting together a pretty decent first week. Drafted as a 2B he’s been playing there and the OF.
I mean, this is just accurate. I think it's kind of ludicrous to be critical of Bloom's overall performance at this point (which isn't to say it might not be correct again in the future), but the latter scenario you describe is what happened here.
The top formal offer was 6/$160m, per Speier: a bit more than half of what he signed for.
That would have been a bad piece of business if we’d done it, but it feels considerably less franchise-derailing than 11/$280m.
You're right that the latter scenario is more or less what happened. However there was a ton of criticism following the Pads "saving his bacon" that he low-balled X repeatedly, including with that so-called "humongous" offer.
I actually think if he'd have stayed in Boston or gone to Philadelphia, he'd be putting up superficially impressive numbers and nobody would be freaking out, but 2024 and beyond would be looking iffy at best. It was just maybe the worst possible marriage of player and team (well, not from his bank account's perspective).
Yeah, often GMs try to do this when their superstars hit FA and they don't actually want to sign them. NY did the same thing with Cano, offering enough to make it seem to the fanbase like they were making an effort but not enough to actually come close to winning the bidding.
Just to dive into this a bit -- nobody is ever immune. Theo earned an amazing amount of goodwill with 2004 and then 2007, but that would have run out quick had things gone south. He left while he was more or less still on top. Watch what happens in October if the Pats start 2-5.
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The more frustrating thing is that these same idiots would have been saying Chaim overpaid him more than the market would bear, if he came in with the top offer. Hell, that last 'formal' offer seemed like X was about to accept that day, until Preller came out of nowhere.
He started getting cortisone shots last year after the collision with Verdugo
https://theathletic.com/4634013/2023/06/22/xander-bogaerts-offensive-struggles-habits-confidence/
It strikes me as fairly ironic that we're having a discussion about X rebounding from a wrist injury that has been plaguing him for more than a year, driving down his slugging percentages (which were already declining), when the discourse on this website not even a month ago included an argument that Story would never play shortstop again after having his elbow repaired. I mean, even if Xander's BABIP were more like .330, you're still looking at a guy who has just turned 30, and is slugging about .420 after slugging .450 the year before that, .493 before that, and .500 before that. That's still a very good player at shortstop, but only if he sticks at shortstop for the next ten years, and only if this decline in slugging stops at around .400, which it is absolutely not guaranteed to.
Xander's wrist injury, for what it's worth, is the definition of a reoccurring injury that indicates he could be injury prone. He might not be missing time for his wrist, but the fact that he hasn't had surgery to repair it and is just "managing" it, all while his ISO numbers decline year-over-year -- that's a gigantic red flag to me. I would not bet on a rebound for him unless he gets that wrist repaired in some fashion. Getting a cortisone shot is also a red flag to me. You don't do that unless the pain is intense and you feel like surgery isn't a good option, right? I really don't know.
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Just looking at Xander's home/road splits for his career shows that he would be very likely to miss playing at Fenway Park.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=bogaexa01&year=Career&t=b
I think he'll still have a couple more good years, and I was hoping he would take Boston's offer because I love the guy and wanted him to play his whole career here, but I am really glad we didn't even try to get anywhere near that ridiculous 11-year contract the Padres gave him. That was a ludicrous contract the instant it was signed.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=bogaexa01&year=Career&t=b
I think he'll still have a couple more good years, and I was hoping he would take Boston's offer because I love the guy and wanted him to play his whole career here, but I am really glad we didn't even try to get anywhere near that ridiculous 11-year contract the Padres gave him. That was a ludicrous contract the instant it was signed.
Reminds me of the side chatter around this study from Bill James (via Sports Info Solutions) last year that suggested that Xander "ranks as the player with the highest injury risk in 2023 by our injury tool's projections."
https://www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2023/02/20/2023-defender-to-watch-xander-bogaerts/
Either the injury tool criteria is proprietary or you have the buy the book (I haven't), but it all seems a lot more relevant now.