X Leaves the Spot for San Diego: 11 years, $280M

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I think this is an oft-overlooked factor in the negotiations. A player with his offensive profile is worth one thing at SS (probably more) and another as a LF or 3B or DH (probably less). The Sox were likely factoring an eventual position change into their offers while Bogaerts was looking (hoping?) to get paid like a SS for the entire length of his deal. Then the Padres came in and paid him "like a shortstop" and clearly didn't give a shit about what position he would play in two or ten years. Hard to compete with that sort of carefree spending.

it's why I use Story and Baez as comps. They had been short stops the vast majorities of their career, and Baez at least was paid to be a short stop. Story was technically paid as a 2b, I suppose. The Rangers obviously went insane on Seager, and offered Semien a bit more ($15m more than many of us are advocating the Sox should have given Bogaerts), probably because they overpaid him to get him to choose Texas, but a year before free agency, I do think offering to give Bogaerts the 2nd best SS deal on the market to stay in Boston is something he would have taken. I also feel VERY confident he would have taken Semien's deal as well (7/$177M), which I'd be fine with paying for Bogaerts as well (Bogie has had the better career OPS+, Semien's defense seems to have trended up with a move to 2b once he got to Toronto).

If they said to him " we think you're going to move to LF" (or whatever) and offered him 5/$100m I would get his being pissed too. But offering to pay someone the 2nd highest SS deal would have been strong, and to reiterate, if they'd done that and he said no, I'd have been more than fine with them moving on from the player. I don't recall any reports anywhere of an offer like that being made to Bogaerts.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

They did sign him to a comparatively moderate extension before he hit FA.

April 1, 2019. The Sox signed Bogaerts to a six-year contract extension worth $132 million; the deal included an opt-out clause that Bogaerts could exercise after the 2022 season.

Which he did. Because he wanted more money, leveraged by his becoming a FA.

In hindsight, that 2019 contract was a great one for both the player and the team. It's one of the situations where the opt out clause benefits both.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

With his walkoff home run last night, X now has a 120 OPS+ for the season and 4.2 WAR, which is higher than anyone on this year's Red Sox team.

The contract may not age well and SD has been disappointing to say the least, but he's had yet another excellent season.

 

[joe dokes]

With his walkoff home run last night, X now has a 120 OPS+ for the season and 4.2 WAR, which is higher than anyone on this year's Red Sox team.

The contract may not age well and SD has been disappointing to say the least, but he's had yet another excellent season.

No idea what it means, if it means anything, or what some alternate universe looks like, but SD and the Sox are headed for similar records this season.

 

[dhappy42]

With his walkoff home run last night, X now has a 120 OPS+ for the season and 4.2 WAR, which is higher than anyone on this year's Red Sox team.

The contract may not age well and SD has been disappointing to say the least, but he's had yet another excellent season.

Did anyone expect otherwise?

X is still a few years away from age-related decline.

The Red Sox might have won 5 more games this year with him at SS, ironically, mainly because of his defense.

 

[chrisfont9]

No idea what it means, if it means anything, or what some alternate universe looks like, but SD and the Sox are headed for similar records this season.

And Bogaerts wasn't exactly propelling them forward when the team was struggling. And he's at 145 games right now. The previous three seasons in Boston when he got to 144-155 games he put up a bWAR of, chronologically, 6.3, 5.0 and 5.9. So while 4.2 is a nice number in a vacuum, it looks pretty terrifying in full context.

 

[Rovin Romine]

The Red Sox might have won 5 more games this year with him at SS, ironically, mainly because of his defense.

Xander costs $25M. He signed Dec. 7.

Assuming the Sox stayed below or close to the cap, they'd be short. . .Duvall $7, and Jansen $16? Turner $8 and Yoshida $15 ?

They would have trotted out Hernandez as the CF. . .and, but for Duvall's injury, Duran does not get called up.

So Xander brings 5 WAR, but costs that or more, perhaps.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

And Bogaerts wasn't exactly propelling them forward when the team was struggling. And he's at 145 games right now. The previous three seasons in Boston when he got to 144-155 games he put up a bWAR of, chronologically, 6.3, 5.0 and 5.9. So while 4.2 is a nice number in a vacuum, it looks pretty terrifying in full context.

Looks pretty good when compared to Trevor Story.

 

[chrisfont9]

Looks pretty good when compared to Trevor Story.

Low bar

 

[TheYellowDart5]

I don't think it's useful or correct to assume that a deal for Bogaerts to stay in Boston would've been on the same terms either length-wise or financially as the contract he signed with the Padres and work out the consequences from there. The opportunity was there to give him a fair long-term extension when he was still under contract. Instead Bloom offered just an extra year before the 2022 season, which was too little, too late. It's the same mistake that ownership made with Lester and then with Betts. At least they finally got it right with Devers.

 

[rodderick]

Low bar

I mean, that's literally the bar if reports are true he would've taken something around the Story deal.

 

[moondog80]

Looks pretty good when compared to Trevor Story.

Would you trade Story for Xander, straight up, no financial considerations? So the Sox pay Xander's deal, the Padres pay Story's.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Would you trade Story for Xander, straight up, no financial considerations?

Even Steven contracts? Yeah. In a second.

 

[moondog80]

Even Steven contracts? Yeah. In a second.

Just be clear, my scenario means the Red Sox assume all of Xander's deal, the Padres assume all of Story's. And not a world where they both have the same money. You may have read it that way, I'm not sure, so I wanted to clarify.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Just be clear, my scenario means the Red Sox assume all of Xander's deal, the Padres assume all of Story's. And not a world where they both have the same money. You may have read it that way, I'm not sure, so I wanted to clarify.

That's exactly how I read it.

As much as I love him and wish that he was still here, there aren't many ball players that are worth Xander's contract, so the answer would be no.

 

[moondog80]

That's exactly how I read it.

As much as I love him and wish that he was still here, there aren't many ball players that are worth Xander's contract, so the answer would be no.

Got it. I could have been more clear.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Story 4/100
Bogaerts 10/255

Would definitely stick with Story even though I don’t have particularly hopes for him.

 

[dhappy42]

Xander costs $25M. He signed Dec. 7.

Assuming the Sox stayed below or close to the cap, they'd be short. . .Duvall $7, and Jansen $16? Turner $8 and Yoshida $15 ?

They would have trotted out Hernandez as the CF. . .and, but for Duvall's injury, Duran does not get called up.

So Xander brings 5 WAR, but costs that or more, perhaps.

Oh, I wasn’t arguing that the Sox should have re-signed Bogaerts. Just that his absence was felt, especially once Story got hurt.

 

[4 6 3 DP]

Xander costs $25M. He signed Dec. 7.

Assuming the Sox stayed below or close to the cap, they'd be short. . .Duvall $7, and Jansen $16? Turner $8 and Yoshida $15 ?

They would have trotted out Hernandez as the CF. . .and, but for Duvall's injury, Duran does not get called up.

So Xander brings 5 WAR, but costs that or more, perhaps.

Obviously none of us can really speculate - but probably Duvall/Jansen would be the guess. Houck or Whitlock the closer, if not Martin.

The articles made it sound like Yoshida was first priority for the team, so can't imagine they wouldn't have chased him.

That said, very interesting thought exercise given they talked a good game about signing X

 

[8slim]

I wish he was still on the team. He’s fun to watch play, and I suspect has several more quality seasons left. I think there was a way to sign him to a 5-6 year deal long before he hit free agency, but that’s wasn’t what Bloom prioritized. What can you do?

Like literally everyone else here, there’s no universe where he should be on an 11 year deal. That was cosmically insane by SD.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Oh, I wasn’t arguing that the Sox should have re-signed Bogaerts. Just that his absence was felt, especially once Story got hurt.

Had they extended X they don’t sign Story so that’s $140 million freed up.

 

[gryoung]

Story 4/100
Bogaerts 10/255

Would definitely stick with Story even though I don’t have particularly hopes for him.

I’m optimistic regarding Story.

He seems like the kind of player who will work hard in the off-season to continue rehabilitation of his elbow.

If he can come through with a .270 average, 20 HR, 70 RBI, 20 SB and gold glove quality defense I’ll be a happy camper.

 

[dhappy42]

I’m optimistic regarding Story.

He seems like the kind of player who will work hard in the off-season to continue rehabilitation of his elbow.

If he can come through with a .270 average, 20 HR, 70 RBI, 20 SB and gold glove quality defense I’ll be a happy camper.

Story’s elbow seems fine. It’s rehabilitating his swing he needs to work on this off-season.

 

[gryoung]

Story’s elbow seems fine. It’s rehabilitating his swing he needs to work on this off-season.

That’s very true. I’m counting on that to be part of his overall training efforts.

 

[jbupstate]

I wish he was still on the team. He’s fun to watch play, and I suspect has several more quality seasons left. I think there was a way to sign him to a 5-6 year deal long before he hit free agency, but that’s wasn’t what Bloom prioritized. What can you do?

Like literally everyone else here, there’s no universe where he should be on an 11 year deal. That was cosmically insane by SD.

It’s so unrealistic to think Xander signs a 5-6 year extension 2 years ago. It’s silly…. He absolutely held all the cards and was going to cash them in. No way. No how. Unless you believe his heart was only for Boston. Same with Betts.

 

[8slim]

It’s so unrealistic to think Xander signs a 5-6 year extension 2 years ago. It’s silly…. He absolutely held all the cards and was going to cash them in. No way. No how. Unless you believe his heart was only for Boston. Same with Betts.

OK.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

It’s so unrealistic to think Xander signs a 5-6 year extension 2 years ago. It’s silly…. He absolutely held all the cards and was going to cash them in. No way. No how. Unless you believe his heart was only for Boston. Same with Betts.

The rumor was that despite multiple $200 million dollar offers, he was prepared to re-sign with the Red Sox on a deal less than $200 mil and then San Diego swooped in.

 

[jbupstate]

The rumor was that despite multiple $200 million dollar offers, he was prepared to re-sign with the Red Sox on a deal less than $200 mil and then San Diego swooped in.

And Mookie wanted to stay in Boston because it was closer to home.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

And Mookie wanted to stay in Boston because it was closer to home.

Candlepins here made his leaving predestined.

 

[LogansDad]

The rumor was that despite multiple $200 million dollar offers, he was prepared to re-sign with the Red Sox on a deal less than $200 mil and then San Diego swooped in.

That's not the same thing as signing before hitting free agency.

 

[TheYellowDart5]

It’s so unrealistic to think Xander signs a 5-6 year extension 2 years ago. It’s silly…. He absolutely held all the cards and was going to cash them in. No way. No how. Unless you believe his heart was only for Boston. Same with Betts.

I mean, every player has a price. Maybe the price for Bogaerts was always going to be too high, but the FO seemingly never bothered to make him an offer that came close to the number he had in mind; the only one we know of is the last-ditch extra year they put on the table before the 2022 season, which was never going to cut it. And there was never any suggestion from Bogaerts that he was dying to get out of Boston. I think it's reasonable to assume that a fair extension offer sometime between 2019 and 2022 could've convinced him to stay. The problem is that Bloom (apparently) wasn't interested in doing a deal until it was far too late.

 

[Montana Fan]

It’s so unrealistic to think Xander signs a 5-6 year extension 2 years ago. It’s silly…. He absolutely held all the cards and was going to cash them in. No way. No how. Unless you believe his heart was only for Boston. Same with Betts.

B,B,B,But I “think” that a 5 year deal could have been done if Chaim Bloom wasn’t so incompetent at his job. It’s not like Scott Boras is his agent or something. This thread is pretty f’n sad.

 

[jbupstate]

B,B,B,But I “think” that a 5 year deal could have been done if Chaim Bloom wasn’t so incompetent at his job. It’s not like Scott Boras is his agent or something. This thread is pretty f’n sad.

I don’t think Betts and Xander get enough credit for being businessmen. They have agents and can see for themselves what is out there. They have families that might want warm weather, to be closer to home, etc. Being a great player puts you in control. Nothing wrong with wanting to get PAID to stay. We are the fans… not the other way around.

Blaming Bloom is easy. Sometimes I wish we could just go back to hating players for taking the bag of money… jk/nr

 

[Rovin Romine]

I don’t think Betts and Xander get enough credit for being businessmen. They have agents and can see for themselves what is out there. They have families that might want warm weather, to be closer to home, etc. Being a great player puts you in control. Nothing wrong with wanting to get PAID to stay. We are the fans… not the other way around.

Blaming Bloom is easy. Sometimes I wish we could just go back to hating players for taking the bag of money… jk/nr

Surely you don't mean to suggest that Betts and Xander. . .somehow. . .rejected us.

We who are so loveable and unfailingly supportive of our athletes.

Just ask Keith Foulke.

 

[EvilEmpire]

Eh. Whether or not Betts or Bogaert would have stayed with better early offers is unknowable.

What were the best/final offers made to Betts and Bogaerts before free agency?

That is what the organization had control over. It's fair to judge them for that.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Had they extended X they don’t sign Story so that’s $140 million freed up.

I'd agree with your greater point is that there are almost always subsequent actions, so it's almost never actually a question of "Oh, it would be great if the current team also magically had Player X." (The exception might be something like change-of-scenery player-for-player swap with another team.)

Anyway to circle around on Story. . .he was certainly Xander opt-out insurance, but there's a good chance they'd have signed him even if Xander had no opt-out. Because he was also kind of Dever's insurance, and was open to playing 2B if any of the young IF prospects caught fire.

 

[chrisfont9]

I'd agree with your greater point is that there are almost always subsequent actions, so it's almost never actually a question of "Oh, it would be great if the current team also magically had Player X." (The exception might be something like change-of-scenery player-for-player swap with another team.)

Anyway to circle around on Story. . .he was certainly Xander opt-out insurance, but there's a good chance they'd have signed him even if Xander had no opt-out. Because he was also kind of Dever's insurance, and was open to playing 2B if any of the young IF prospects caught fire.

Globe has a piece out now on Story talking about needing a big reset after two years in which he wasn't ever quite healthy or properly trained up. I'm happy to give him 2024 to show he's not the next Edgar Renteria, a guy who seemed good but couldn't play in Boston. Jury is still out on him being a bounce back or a bust.

 

[Kliq]

Story was also pretty mediocre at the plate his final year in Colorado. I obviously hope he can turn it around, but it's been a while since he was an All-Star level player.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Eh. Whether or not Betts or Bogaert would have stayed with better early offers is unknowable.

What were the best/final offers made to Betts and Bogaerts before free agency?

That is what the organization had control over. It's fair to judge them for that.

This exactly.

The reported offer to Bogaerts before 2022 was 4/$90m (after Story signed for 6/$140m) which I have to assume Boras found incredibly insulting (and rightly so). That is a "we don't want you here offer" - and maybe Bloom didn't, which is fair.

They apparently also went up to 6/$175m in free agency. If they'd simply offered 6/$160m the day after Story signed and Bogaerts still said "thanks, but I'm going to free agency" nobody with any degree of credibility could have held that against Bloom. He would have been offering Bogaerts the 2nd largest contract signed by a free agent short stop in that off-season to a player under contract. That would have been a slightly better than market value (at the time) offer as similar players signed slightly higher (Semien, but as a 2b) and slightly lower as SS (Story and Baez) deals.

Nobody wanted the Sox to offer Bogaerts 10/$280m. Many of us did want them to make him a real offer to see if he'd sign before FA - and if he said no - so be it.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

The guy responsible for the decision is gone now. Why keep relitigating it?

If the point is to tell the skeptics (hi!) that they were wrong, sure, fine. I wouldn’t take any particular joy in being “right” about that. I’m sure you all would have been contentedly preaching patience back in June, July, and August.

 

[chrisfont9]

The reported offer to Bogaerts before 2022 was 4/$90m (after Story signed for 6/$140m) which I have to assume Boras found incredibly insulting (and rightly so). That is a "we don't want you here offer" - and maybe Bloom didn't, which is fair.

Wasn't it actually a "we think you have to move to 3B and don't want to pay SS money" offer? I feel like we were all pretty sold on his D faltering in 2021, then the contract discussions end, then suddenly he's in a walk year and commits to defense again.

 

[scottyno]

They apparently also went up to 6/$175m in free agency. If they'd simply offered 6/$160m the day after Story signed and Bogaerts still said "thanks, but I'm going to free agency" nobody with any degree of credibility could have held that against Bloom. He would have been offering Bogaerts the 2nd largest contract signed by a free agent short stop in that off-season to a player under contract. That would have been a slightly better than market value (at the time) offer as similar players signed slightly higher (Semien, but as a 2b) and slightly lower as SS (Story and Baez) deals.

6-160 to X is pretty similar to 10-300 to Mookie, so yeah I'm sure no one would have held it against him

 

[chawson]

This exactly.

The reported offer to Bogaerts before 2022 was 4/$90m (after Story signed for 6/$140m) which I have to assume Boras found incredibly insulting (and rightly so). That is a "we don't want you here offer" - and maybe Bloom didn't, which is fair.

Or it was clear that Boras was going to use an extension attempt as the opening bid when Xander hit free agency, so it didn’t make sense for us to give our best offer.

There was reporting that the two sides were close and that Xander would have left $200+M offers on the table to re-sign with Boston at 6 or 7/$175 or so, which is why Preller needed to so far outbid.

That’s good enough for me. I miss the guy but I think even 6/$175M would have been kind of regrettable in a couple years, and I don’t think what happened is a scandal or fiasco.

 

[jteders1]

This exactly.

The reported offer to Bogaerts before 2022 was 4/$90m (after Story signed for 6/$140m) which I have to assume Boras found incredibly insulting (and rightly so). That is a "we don't want you here offer" - and maybe Bloom didn't, which is fair.

They apparently also went up to 6/$175m in free agency. If they'd simply offered 6/$160m the day after Story signed and Bogaerts still said "thanks, but I'm going to free agency" nobody with any degree of credibility could have held that against Bloom. He would have been offering Bogaerts the 2nd largest contract signed by a free agent short stop in that off-season to a player under contract. That would have been a slightly better than market value (at the time) offer as similar players signed slightly higher (Semien, but as a 2b) and slightly lower as SS (Story and Baez) deals.

Nobody wanted the Sox to offer Bogaerts 10/$280m. Many of us did want them to make him a real offer to see if he'd sign before FA - and if he said no - so be it.

This, do some of us assume he would have taken the deal? Maybe, but it would have been a very respectable offer, and clearly the front office ended up deciding he was worth it this off season. By that time the market was bonkers and SD came in with that absurd offer. Bloom and the front office misread what the 2023 market was going to be. They clearly thought they would be able to retain Bogie in the 6/160 range, but they were wofully wrong. This was a failure no matter how you slice it, it's basically the same mistake as they did with Lester. Also, let's not dump dirt on Bogies grave yet. Despite the mediocre year with the bat, he still put up a 4.3 WAR, and this is with a fractured clubhouse, on a new team, in a new city. I'll bet he rebounds some next year and has a more Xander like season.

 

[Auger34]

Or it was clear that Boras was going to use an extension attempt as the opening bid when Xander hit free agency, so it didn’t make sense for us to give our best offer.

There was reporting that the two sides were close and that Xander would have left $200+M offers on the table to re-sign with Boston at 6 or 7/$175 or so, which is why Preller needed to so far outbid.

That’s good enough for me. I miss the guy but I think even 6/$175M would have been kind of regrettable in a couple years, and I don’t think what happened is a scandal or fiasco.

Offering 4/90 after giving Story his contract is more insulting that no offer. There's no logical explanation for it or defending it. Nothing to do with Boras extension attempts or whatever. It's a not serious offer with no upside. As has been previously mentioned, the team made the exact same mistake with Lester.

If they wanted to keep him around, and it's obvious they did since Bloom stated numerous times he was the #1 priority going into free agency last year, then you have to offer him Story's contract as an absolute minimum.

I don't think there's a single poster on here who wants X at the contract that he got with the Padres. That contract is fucking insane. The issue that people have is the process that ended with him being able to get that insane contract offer.

If they offer him 6/146 and he says no, I don't think anyone would have a problem with that. It's the lowball offer that they threw out when there was a chance to get him to stay on a lower contract

 

[jteders1]

Offering 4/90 after giving Story his contract is more insulting that no offer. There's no logical explanation for it or defending it. Nothing to do with Boras extension attempts or whatever. It's a not serious offer with no upside. As has been previously mentioned, the team made the exact same mistake with Lester.

If they wanted to keep him around, and it's obvious they did since Bloom stated numerous times he was the #1 priority going into free agency last year, then you have to offer him Story's contract as an absolute minimum.

I don't think there's a single poster on here who wants X at the contract that he got with the Padres. That contract is fucking insane. The issue that people have is the process that ended with him being able to get that insane contract offer.

If they offer him 6/146 and he says no, I don't think anyone would have a problem with that. It's the lowball offer that they threw out when there was a chance to get him to stay on a lower contract

Especially when Xander had already signed an extension before hitting free agency a few years before. He had shown that he was willing to avoid the process if the team was willing to pay market rate. They didn't and compounded the issue by making an insultingly low offer, probably to show the fans that they were "trying". My guess is that they could have had Xander in the 6-7 year range for around 175m if they had acted decisively early. They didn't and that was par for the course for the entire Bloom run.

 

[BaseballJones]

According to b-ref:

SD: 75-78, $275.5m in commitments in 2023
Bos: 75-78, $199.1m in commitments in 2023

 

[jbupstate]

Especially when Xander had already signed an extension before hitting free agency a few years before. He had shown that he was willing to avoid the process if the team was willing to pay market rate. They didn't and compounded the issue by making an insultingly low offer, probably to show the fans that they were "trying". My guess is that they could have had Xander in the 6-7 year range for around 175m if they had acted decisively early. They didn't and that was par for the course for the entire Bloom run.

Why would Xander sign for a home town discount to get him to age 35? To sign for short year would have be for a premium. He played it correctly.

 

[Skiponzo]

According to b-ref:

SD: 75-78, $275.5m in commitments in 2023
Bos: 75-78, $199.1m in commitments in 2023

To add to this.....

SD 2024/2025: $130.5M / $142.5M....similar $$ out to 2033 ($101.3M)
BOS 24/2025: $134.3M / $76.1M....stays about same $$ for 2 years then drops down to $35M range thru 2033

 

[Rovin Romine]

The reported offer to Bogaerts before 2022 was 4/$90m (after Story signed for 6/$140m) which I have to assume Boras found incredibly insulting (and rightly so). That is a "we don't want you here offer" - and maybe Bloom didn't, which is fair.

Offering 4/90 after giving Story his contract is more insulting that no offer.

The first issue with these sorts of things is you never know if the reporting is accurate. The second is that there's usually a discussion, not a flat take-it-or-leave-it offer.

But even with the above numbers, it's $22.5M a year (4/90) to $23.3M a year (6/140). Story has an opt-out after year 4, which the club can void by picking up another year on the back end at $25M (his age 35 season, and at that point, his 6 and 7th year options are subject to the 10-5 no-trade rule.)

Xander's reported deal 4/90 deal would take him to his age 34 year, whereupon he'd be a FA. (Plus he's automatically a 10-5 no-trade guy from the start of his extension.)

So they're not grossly off to the point where this is facially "insulting." There's no reason Xander couldn't counter by saying, "Look, I actually don't want to hit FA again, so I need two more years guaranteed, plus option years."

By the way, there's not a bigger cliche in reporting on negotiations to be had - you'd be shocked, shocked at the number of "insulted" people who manage to walk out of a negotiation pretty happy.