That would be a 15-20 war player during his team controlled years, that's pretty damn valuable and will likely be one of the best, if not the best, in his draft class.
X Leaves the Spot for San Diego: 11 years, $280M
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I mean a good defensive SS that's an offensive asset is the definition of a good pick. That's a 3-4 WAR player. And a guy that will give you 18-24 WAR over his cost controlled years. That's a great draft pick. Like Kyle Teel, is he going to be Roman Anthony with the bat? Probably not. But a great defensive catcher that's an OPS+ 110 guy is insanely valuable.
EDIT: What scottyno said.
Unless I’m missing something Drew had a 2.7 WAR in 2013 and had a 15.9 WAR overall. His closest comp was Jeff Blauser for his career and Didi Gregorious in his 2013 (age 30) season.
YMMV but that’s what we’re pinning the Red Sox hopes on? I think the word “great” is a bit of hyperbole.
YMMV but that’s what we’re pinning the Red Sox hopes on? I think the word “great” is a bit of hyperbole.
Why are you now referencing his whole career when your complaint was that his 2013 year wouldn't be a positive result for Mayer?
If we are hoping that Mayer becomes the shortstop version of Verdugo, this thread has taken a horribly dark turn.
You take it. But I’m not sure you make decisions years in advance to accommodate a guy with a ceiling of being a 110-ish OPS+ player.
I assume this conversation is about the value for Mayer’s pre-arb, pre-FA years. Because needless to say for this specific thread, Boegarts is likely to deliver a 125+ OPS+ for several more years. And his defense seems to be better and stabilized.
If we passed on having a reasonable contract negotiation with X for the modern day Stephen Drew… I’d be disappointed.
His defense stabalized so much that they're already talking about moving him off shortstop because he wasn't very good this year
None of it matters now because he’s long gone. But the Sox made decisions over a few years to bring in poor defensive players. Had they not done that, and made different decisions, then they’d have more flexibility to move X around as necessary.
Regardless, is X as bad a Devers? I’ll admit to being deeply suspicious of defensive metrics, so I never thought he was as atrocious as many here claim.
Because if Mayer’s best year isn’t even Stephen Drew’s best year*, the Sox may as well trade him now before reality sets in.
* And the best Stephen Drew, like his top comparable Blauser, was a good ball player. Hardly anyone you’d build a team around.
EDIT: this is a moot point anyway. Someone threw out Drew’s name earlier and my point is, if Drew is the bar then we’re all overrating Mayer. FTR I’m not sure that Drew should be the bar. That seems low.
Yeah, my concern - which seems similar to yours - is that we've been hearing for a year or two now that Mayer is the long term answer to SS and team building decisions should revolve around that years in advance. In my head, you make those calls on A ball players that are on a fast, generational type track. Not a maybe Stephen Drew if things stay at this trajectory.
Admittedly that could very well be me creating that hype in my head based on stuff I read here and elsewhere.
No, but he's also 4 years older and not as good a hitter as Devers, so when you move him off shortstop as he gets older his value craters
I don't think anyones using Drew's 2013 as a ceiling. Someone listed Drew's 2013 season as an example of a very valuable player because he provided good defense at SS along with above average offense. What if Mayer's slightly lesser version of Corey Seager? Is that a good enough result?
Verdugo just wishes that he were an OPS+ 110 guy. Weird Covid year results aside, he's been a dead average offensive player with inconsistent corner OF defense (which is the very definition of a fungible player).
This is a really weird thread.
Mayer is a + defender at SS with the upside of a + bat for both hit and power. He's 20 years old and has had a blip at AA because he was hurt (shoulder) before he was promoted to AA. There's no reason to believe he won't be healthy next year and resume developing as a hitter. Which is pretty much normal. . .because he's 20 years old and is in AA.
He is not a problem prospect.
"Value craters" is where you lose me.
He would have kept playing SS for the 2023-2025 seasons at a minimum. That would have been half of a potential 6 year deal. Then let's say they move him to 3B or LF. The value of a guy putting up a 125-ish OPS+ there is a "crater". As best I can tell, the last time we had a LFer put up better than a 125 OPS+ was Jason Bay in 2009.
I feel like people get really bent around the axle in parsing out a few million dollars worth of "value" and lose sight of the bigger picture.
I think we were all good at the thought of a 110 OPS+ player, it was when Drew's name was attached that it became scary.
True.
Also, friendly reminder that MLB OPS this year is .735, vs. 714 in 2013. So, you'd have to adjust Drew's numbers up a bit to get today's equivalent (it would be roughly 800)
Yoshida is at 110 OPS+ right now, which I think we would all be happy with if he were also providing + defense at SS.
I'm going to push back. I wouldn't say "happy". Not if it's a 110 OPS+ over Mayer's first six seasons. That'd be understandable for seasons 1 and 2, maybe 3. But Boegarts gave us OPS+'s of 135, 139 and 128 in his age 25, 26 and 27 seasons. If Mayer delivers an OPS+ of, say, 108 when he's 26, that'd be kind of underwhelming given his draft position, and that we seem to have cleared the position for him years in advance.
Right. 2004 Nomar Garciaparra would have resonated better. I think there are some people who are going to moan if Mayer isn't a lock to be 1999 Nomar.
I think you might be underestimating how often draft picks bust, even very high ones.
With good D at SS, let's say Mayer is worth 4 WAR a year with a 100 OPS+. That's a conservative estimate. So 24 WAR over 6 years. In the history of the draft, there have been 10 guys picked 4th that produced at least 24 WAR over their entire careers. And while there are some recent draftees who haven't reached that total yet because they haven't played long enough, I'm also using career totals, not just the first 6 years.
Getting that production from Mayer during his cost-controlled years would be a huge, huge win.
Backing up @moondog80, if Mayer gives us 4 WAR each year, that would have made him the most valuable position player on the Red Sox last year. Think of how hard this team struggled to find a shortstop after Nomar left! Shortstops who give you an WRC+ of 100 or more are hard to find, full-stop. That's why the Padres went cuckoo paying Xander so much.
Even if Mayer busts, there's lots of other reasons for optimism on the farm and on the big-league team. Valdez, Abreu, and Ceddane all look to have the potential to be 2-3+ WAR players: maybe they flame out, maybe not year-in, year-out, but they're all cost-controlled and giving us good play right now, as we speak. With Anthony, Mayer, Tell, and Yorke in AA, and some fringier types like Scott, Hernandez, Rosier, and Hamilton in AAA, there's plenty of guys who could step up in some capacity even if a top picl like Mayer flames out.
I'm a skeptic of his bat, but I see a wrc+ of 100+ in him, and maybe more if he cuts back on the strikeouts. And if he's as good at SS as people say, then the bat doesn't have to be as good as Xander's.
Even if Mayer busts, there's lots of other reasons for optimism on the farm and on the big-league team. Valdez, Abreu, and Ceddane all look to have the potential to be 2-3+ WAR players: maybe they flame out, maybe not year-in, year-out, but they're all cost-controlled and giving us good play right now, as we speak. With Anthony, Mayer, Tell, and Yorke in AA, and some fringier types like Scott, Hernandez, Rosier, and Hamilton in AAA, there's plenty of guys who could step up in some capacity even if a top picl like Mayer flames out.
I'm a skeptic of his bat, but I see a wrc+ of 100+ in him, and maybe more if he cuts back on the strikeouts. And if he's as good at SS as people say, then the bat doesn't have to be as good as Xander's.
It can be both a huge win value wise, and a moderate to severe disappointment at the same time.
I mean, just look at Mac Jones. His rookie deal was for $16M TOTAL. Top NFL QBs are making like $50M annually. He is giving the Patriots somewhere around league average production. He is providing a TON of surplus value, and is also probably a top... I dunno, 70%? outcome for the #14 pick in the draft.
And yet, he is also a disappointment to the majority of Pats fans.
If Mayer only ends up in the 110 OPS range at age 26, I know I personally will be disappointed, even if I rationally know he is providing a lot of surplus value and that it would represent a good outcome for the #4 pick.
This is where there is a huge disconnect between the analytics and reality.
I mean, just look at Mac Jones. His rookie deal was for $16M TOTAL. Top NFL QBs are making like $50M annually. He is giving the Patriots somewhere around league average production. He is providing a TON of surplus value, and is also probably a top... I dunno, 70%? outcome for the #14 pick in the draft.
And yet, he is also a disappointment to the majority of Pats fans.
If Mayer only ends up in the 110 OPS range at age 26, I know I personally will be disappointed, even if I rationally know he is providing a lot of surplus value and that it would represent a good outcome for the #4 pick.
This is where there is a huge disconnect between the analytics and reality.
I'm really not trying to be a jerk, but I think it's more like a disconnect between expectations and reality.
You're not wrong, and part of it is the media hype machine. We've been led to believe that Mayer will be a STAR; so if it doesn't turn out that way, we'll be disappointed.
I'll just say that even if expectations are tempered - be it for Mayer, Mac, whoever - it doesn't mean that surplus value performance could be disappointing vs. what you hope the outcome is. So, it's not necessarily expectations, but more hope IMO.
And I get it. If year 3 Mayer is 248/329/424 (Dansby Swanson this year), that won't feel like a star to me either. But it will be pretty close if he's above average D at SS.
I think the disconnect is folks hyping up how bright the team’s future is because of the prospects they have, while simultaneously hedging and stating that their top guy becoming Stephen Drew would be a perfectly acceptable and perhaps even optimistic outcome.
I would also be disappointed if Mayer is only a 110 OPS+ hitter by the time he's 26.
Prior to his AA stint, where he was injured a couple weeks before being promoted, he was 3.7 years younger than the league average, & he had a ridiculously low BABIP (.220 compared to a previous low of .338), he has hit well at every level.
'21 FCL (-2.0 age differential): 120 wRC+
'22 A (-1.8): 149 wRC+
'22 A+ (-3.5): 127 wrC+
'23 A+ (-2.2): 139 wrC+
'23 AA (-3.7): 63 wrC+
He'll be fine. Hopefully his shoulder gets better soon & everyone can relax. He is a joy to watch both swinging a bat & in the field. It's all very smooth & like he was made for this.
Prior to his AA stint, where he was injured a couple weeks before being promoted, he was 3.7 years younger than the league average, & he had a ridiculously low BABIP (.220 compared to a previous low of .338), he has hit well at every level.
'21 FCL (-2.0 age differential): 120 wRC+
'22 A (-1.8): 149 wRC+
'22 A+ (-3.5): 127 wrC+
'23 A+ (-2.2): 139 wrC+
'23 AA (-3.7): 63 wrC+
He'll be fine. Hopefully his shoulder gets better soon & everyone can relax. He is a joy to watch both swinging a bat & in the field. It's all very smooth & like he was made for this.
I get that. It's just that IMO expectations/hopes are something under our control. And I'm choosing to see Mayer's potential as a part of a larger matrix where there's a number of guys in the Sox system who could be 4-5 win players coming up in the next 2-3 years. That's the sort of transformational talent we've all been hoping for, and if Mayer becomes a guy who averages 4 wins and so do Teel and Anthony, then we've gone a long way toward making ourselves competitive again. I would be happy with that larger picture.
As for Mayer=Stephen Drew... I think someone was comparing his 2013 year where he was nearly four win player. For his career Stephen Drew had a wrc+ of 92 and only had one other season as good or better than 2013. He totaled 14 WAR in his career. I hope Mayer will be better than that too.
Are a bunch of 4 win players really transformational talent? I'm genuinely asking. Or do most title teams actually have at least one guy with 6+ WAR,? 7+? Etc. I'd be curious how that breaks down for championship teams.
It's not that Stephen Drew at FA prices is a great outcome.
More like cost controlled 2013 Stephen Drew is a great outcome.
Good outcome, above average outcome, surplus value outcome, label it how you want.
But a 110 OPS+ from Mayer during his cost controlled years is simply not a great outcome. Him becoming Nomar, Jeter, or ARod would be a great outcome. It might not be reality. It might be in the 95th, or 99th percentile outcome. But that is what a great outcome is.
In fairness Mayer's age 26 season will be his 5th or 6th.
But Bogie's probably also a good comp, he's an OPS+ sub 120 guy for his career, whose prime was pretty good. So Bogaerts with slightly better D might be a likely outcome for Mayer, and if we're all pining for Xander, we should like Mayer.
I'm now wishing that no one ever mentioned Drew's good season in Boston. Look, a 4 win player is a great outcome for a prospect. Is Teel going to be the second coming of Carlton Fisk? Probably not. But a great defensive catcher that's an actual offensive asset is probably a 5-6 win player. And that's hella reason to be optimistic. And no matter what WAR tells you about Roman Anthony (because he'll probably end up in RF and be penalized even though RF D is vital in Fenway) that's a guy that's going to put up some monster years (barring injury).
Yeah, I mean, obviously it's better to have a couple of guys who are 6 or 7 win players, but it's not strictly necessary.
The Rays this year have 3 guys over 4 wins - Franco, Diaz, and Paredes, and their WARS are 5.4, 5.0, and 4.2. The Orioles have one 6 win guy and one 4 win guy and a few 3 win fellows. The Braves, who are obviously superlative, have 4 guys over 4 wins (an 8 (Acuna Jr), a 7 (Matt Olson), a 5.7, and a 4.3). Dodgers have two guys north of 4 wins (an 8.3 and a 6.5) and three guys north of 3 (3.7, 3.1., and 3).
And that's the teams with 90+ wins. So it seems like having at least on guy north of 6 is really helpful but not strictly necessary.
Some of these teams have a few guys who are close to four but don't actually clear the threshold... point is, having a few guys around 4-5 wins is very much a part of being a contender.
Meanwhile, this year's Sox leader for WAR among position players is Devers at 3.4, followed by Verdugo at 2.8, and then the next group is a bunch of guys around 2.2.
Obviously this leaves out pitching.
If you have a bunch of 4+ win players at minimum salaries, yeah (this is hitters only, fWAR, top 6)...
But yes, 7 of the last 9 full season WS winners had 1 with at least 6 WAR.
'22 Astros: 6.7, 6.6, 5.5, 4.8, 3.5, 2.0
'21 Braves: 4.9, 4.8, 4.4, 4.0, 3.4, 1.3
'19 Nationals: 6.8, 5.7, 4.2, 3.5, 2.7, 2.4
'18 Red Sox: 10.5, 5.8, 4.9, 4.4, 3.4, 1.5
'17 Astros: 7.5, 5.0, 4.6, 4.6, 4.4, 3.7
'16 Cubs: 7.9, 4.8, 4.1, 3.6, 3.3, 2.7
'15 Royals: 6.1, 3.8, 3.5, 2.7, 2.1, 1.5
'14 Giants: 7.6, 4.0, 3.2, 2.7, 1.9, 1.8
'13 Red Sox: 4.9, 4.7, 4.6, 3.6, 3.4, 3.4
I think once we're quibbling over the distinctions between great and very good, our spade has hit rock, and we all probably have to agree to disagree.
The bottom line is that if Teel, Anthony, and Mayer all hit, and each of them are averaging 4-5 wins with seasons where they spike over 6 or so, then we all will be very happy. If Mayer is the guy giving us 3-4 wins while Anthony and Teel erupt, I don't think anyone should be disappointed.
Just to go back & cover the 2 other Red Sox wins during this stretch...
'12 Giants: 10.1, 4.6, 4.5, 2.4, 2.1, 1.9
'11 Cards: 5.9, 4.7, 4.4, 3.9, 2.3, 2.3
'10 Giants: 6.3, 5.7, 4.0, 2.8, 2.7, 2.4
'09 Yankees: 6.7, 5.2, 4.1, 3.7, 3.6, 3.0
'08 Phillies: 8.2, 5.1, 5.0, 4.3, 2.8, 2.4
'07 Red Sox: 6.3, 4.5, 4.4, 4.1, 3.7, 2.6
'06 Cards: 8.1, 5.5, 2.3, 1.7, 1.5, 1.3
'05 White Sox: 3.8, 3.8, 3.3, 2.2, 2.2, 1.9
'04 Red Sox: 4.3, 4.2, 4.1, 3.4, 3.3, 1.5
So overall, 13 of the last 18 champions have had a 6+ WAR hitter, but the Red Sox alone have won 2 World Series during this timeframe without a 5+ WAR hitter.
'12 Giants: 10.1, 4.6, 4.5, 2.4, 2.1, 1.9
'11 Cards: 5.9, 4.7, 4.4, 3.9, 2.3, 2.3
'10 Giants: 6.3, 5.7, 4.0, 2.8, 2.7, 2.4
'09 Yankees: 6.7, 5.2, 4.1, 3.7, 3.6, 3.0
'08 Phillies: 8.2, 5.1, 5.0, 4.3, 2.8, 2.4
'07 Red Sox: 6.3, 4.5, 4.4, 4.1, 3.7, 2.6
'06 Cards: 8.1, 5.5, 2.3, 1.7, 1.5, 1.3
'05 White Sox: 3.8, 3.8, 3.3, 2.2, 2.2, 1.9
'04 Red Sox: 4.3, 4.2, 4.1, 3.4, 3.3, 1.5
So overall, 13 of the last 18 champions have had a 6+ WAR hitter, but the Red Sox alone have won 2 World Series during this timeframe without a 5+ WAR hitter.
I said I was using fWAR.
It doesn't really matter, though. If you have a bunch of 4 WAR minimum players, you would have to really screw up the rest of the roster not to put together a very competitive team.
Thanks to everyone for a bunch of very thoughtful responses. I definitely understand the points about expectations vs. history, and the value of a pre-FA player.
This captures some of my consternation...
So as @tims4wins said, one could simultaneously be fine with a 110 OPS+, 3-4 WAR player under a team friendly deal, and yet also be pining for more given all of the decisions that have seemingly hinged on him being more.
I'm not angry or anything. Just offering up another perspective that I suspect more than a few Sox fans would have.
This captures some of my consternation...
And as I mentioned, it seems (maybe I'm wrong) that the Sox have made a slew of decisions over the past 3 years with an eye towards 2025 and beyond, when the farm is likely to be in full yield. And from all I've been reading since the day he was drafted, Mayer is the key cog in that machine.
So as @tims4wins said, one could simultaneously be fine with a 110 OPS+, 3-4 WAR player under a team friendly deal, and yet also be pining for more given all of the decisions that have seemingly hinged on him being more.
I'm not angry or anything. Just offering up another perspective that I suspect more than a few Sox fans would have.
Right, and the jumping off point of this discussion was that some people were saying that they wouldn't want to sign Bogaerts to a 6 year, 160M deal because it would be blocking Mayer from playing SS.
While a 110 OPS+, 3-4 win player is very valuable, it's also not a player where you alter all of your FA plans (or let talent leave) because you HAVE to get him up to the show and put him in the line-up immediately.
I actually am a big fan of Mayer and I think he could be very good (better than 110 OPS+), but I think the context around the original argument was missing in some of the subsequent posts.
It's not as simple as "we have Mayer so we don't need to spend $160 million to keep Xander". More like "we have many holes to fill and limited resources, so maybe the presence of Mayer means we shift those resources to a position where we are less likely to produce an internal option."
I'm not sure that's quite correct. I think most people were more concerned with adding pitching and didn't see the point of committing long term big money to a SS when they had a perfectly good one rushing through the minors. What traumatized people was Drew's 2014 season, which completely erased his perfectly good 2013 from Red Sox Nation's collective memory. I wish the other poster had just used the obvious comp for Mayer, Bogie. Because Xander's career OPS+ is 117 with some good offensive seasons and less good defensive ones. Mayer is a better defensive player, though.
We'd have had to spend $280M+ to keep Xander.
But, yes.
I'd add that it's not only the presence of Mayer (SS - 2025?). Story's on the roster as well. So Story is one of the two MI spots for the near future.
While on the farm or just up, we also have Rafaela (CF/SS - now), Valdez (2B - now), Yorke (2B - late 2024), Bonaci (SS/2B - late 2025), Romero (SS/2B - 2026?). Plus the ability to acquire guys like Urias.
The point being, we really only need one of those guys to stick at 2B because Story's at SS. Then, we can transition Story to 2B if we have a better SS to play there. It seems like that's most likely to be Mayer. But it's not Mayer-at-SS-or-bust, and never really has been.
Which circles back to wondering why was there a need to sign Story to a 6/140 deal when they had to make a decision on X a year later *and* there were other holes to fill?
I've never been able to square "limited resources" with "let's pay 6/140 for a guy coming from Colorado and is the same age of our current SS who we apparently don't want to pay for his 31-35 year old seasons".
Because the original discussion was based around tempering expectations and the fact that Mayer could very well not be a star while still providing a lot of value. In that context bringing up Xander would be pointless, everyone would be thrilled if he turns out to be Xander.