For my own edification, I did top 25 and top 50 wins for the top teams (and obviously losses). I'm also sorting by conference rather than rank:If you look at the Sagarin ratings of each team on Michigan's and ND's schedules it's similar. The average Sagarin rating of a team on Michigan's schedule is #50 while on ND's it is #58. Michigan has more games against teams with a top 30 rating(5) than ND does(2), but has more games against teams with a plus-100 rating(3) than ND does(2). ND is hurt by teams on it's schedule having poorer seasons than initially thought(FSU, VT, Navy, USC) and Michigan did not schedule a very tough OOC(Western Michigan and SMU other than the ND game). ND also is starting to schedule some teams they normally wouldn't have(Ball State, Vandy) that weakens it's schedule. Next year they have Bowling Green and New Mexico on the schedule.
Notre Dame
Top 25 wins: MICHIGAN (4), STANFORD (25)
Top 50 wins: NONE
Losses: NONE
UGA
Top 25 wins: @MIZZOU (23), UF (22), AUBURN (20)
Top 50 wins: @SOUTH CAROLINA (49), @KENTUCKY (48)
Losses: @LSU (18)
LSU
Top 25 wins: @AUBURN (20), UGA (3), MS ST (19)
Top 50 wins: MIAMI (30)
Losses: @UF (22), BAMA (1)
Top 25 wins: MICHIGAN (4), STANFORD (25)
Top 50 wins: NONE
Losses: NONE
Bama
Top 25 wins: TAMU (21), MIZZOU (23), @LSU (18), MS ST (19)
Top 50 wins: NONE
Losses: NONE
Top 25 wins: TAMU (21), MIZZOU (23), @LSU (18), MS ST (19)
Top 50 wins: NONE
Losses: NONE
UGA
Top 25 wins: @MIZZOU (23), UF (22), AUBURN (20)
Top 50 wins: @SOUTH CAROLINA (49), @KENTUCKY (48)
Losses: @LSU (18)
LSU
Top 25 wins: @AUBURN (20), UGA (3), MS ST (19)
Top 50 wins: MIAMI (30)
Losses: @UF (22), BAMA (1)
Michigan
Top 25 wins: PSU (13), WISCONSIN (17)
Top 50 wins: @MSU (32)
Losses: @ND (6)
Top 25 wins: PSU (13), WISCONSIN (17)
Top 50 wins: @MSU (32)
Losses: @ND (6)
OSU
Top 25 wins: @PSU (13)
Top 50 wins: @MSU (32)
Losses: @PURDUE (40)
Top 25 wins: @PSU (13)
Top 50 wins: @MSU (32)
Losses: @PURDUE (40)
Clemson
Top 25 wins: @TAMU (21)
Top 50 wins: CUSE (39), NC ST (49), @BC (46)
Losses: NONE
OU
Top 25 wins: NONE
Top 50 wins: @IA ST (34), @TTU (26), OK ST (27)
Losses: TEXAS (41)
WVU
Top 25 wins: NONE
Top 50 wins: @TTU (26), @ TEXAS (41)
Losses: @IA ST (34)
Top 25 wins: @TAMU (21)
Top 50 wins: CUSE (39), NC ST (49), @BC (46)
Losses: NONE
OU
Top 25 wins: NONE
Top 50 wins: @IA ST (34), @TTU (26), OK ST (27)
Losses: TEXAS (41)
WVU
Top 25 wins: NONE
Top 50 wins: @TTU (26), @ TEXAS (41)
Losses: @IA ST (34)
WSU
Top 25 wins: UTAH (15), @STANFORD (25)
Top 50 wins: NONE
Losses: @USC (36)
Top 25 wins: UTAH (15), @STANFORD (25)
Top 50 wins: NONE
Losses: @USC (36)
Some thoughts:
- Almost all the losses listed are on the road or neutral site. Relatedly, lots of the losses on the road occurred against lower ranked teams (e.g. WSU losing @USC, WVU losing @IA ST, OSU losing @Purdue, etc.). Consequently, road wins and home losses should be weighed heavily.
- To that point, Bama winning @LSU is a big effing statement.
- The Pac 12 isn't as bad as I thought. It's comparable to the Big 12. The ACC probably doesn't get enough crap, after Clemson it's pretty ugly.
- The worst losses listed above by a fair margin are OSU @Purdue, WVU @IA ST, and WSU @USC. Those teams should be dinged accordingly.
- I was overrating LSU a bit in my mind. That loss @UF isn't pretty and they were lucky to get 3/4 games against the top 50 at home. Compared to UGA who has won 3/5 of their games against the top 50 on the road. UGA is a worthy CCG participant.
- Clemson's schedule is dreadful. They will be the most untested semifinalist if they make it - even the Big12 champion will have 2 games against the other top 10 Big12 team if they should make it.
- I'm flipping ND over Michigan. However, if UM can beat OSU on the road, that's enough for me to flip them again, wins against top 50 Cuse and top 50 @USC notwithstanding. Same with respect to UGA.
- The loser of the SEC CCG will have a legitimate argument that they are still a top 4 team. Going on resume alone UGA belongs ahead of Michigan, and based on the eye test ahead of ND and on par with Clemson. But with things this close, I think being a conference champion should be enough to push non-SEC teams into the Final 4. I totally support a 5+3 approach though going forward for this reason.
- WVU @OK ST on Saturday is IMMENSE!
- ND @USC in week 12 is an opportunity for them to make a decent statement, especially if USC wins against UCLA and WSU can continue holding serve, since WSU lost @USC.
- Other regular season games that could shake things up: Bama vs. Auburn, WSU vs. Washington, Michigan @OSU, and LSU @TAMU (since Clemson and Bama also played them).
Zoso's revised Top 10:
1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. UGA
4. ND
5. Michigan
6. LSU
7. OU
8. OSU
9. WSU
10. WVU
Edit: I'm putting UGA 3 and ND 4.
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