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Who's Your Top Ten - 2018 CFB

Discussion in 'College Sports' started by Ale Xander, Sep 30, 2018.

  1. Zososoxfan

    Zososoxfan Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,655
    For my own edification, I did top 25 and top 50 wins for the top teams (and obviously losses). I'm also sorting by conference rather than rank:

    Notre Dame
    Top 25 wins: MICHIGAN (4), STANFORD (25)
    Top 50 wins: NONE
    Losses: NONE


    Bama
    Top 25 wins: TAMU (21), MIZZOU (23), @LSU (18), MS ST (19)
    Top 50 wins: NONE
    Losses: NONE

    UGA
    Top 25 wins: @MIZZOU (23), UF (22), AUBURN (20)
    Top 50 wins: @SOUTH CAROLINA (49), @KENTUCKY (48)
    Losses: @LSU (18)

    LSU
    Top 25 wins: @AUBURN (20), UGA (3), MS ST (19)
    Top 50 wins: MIAMI (30)
    Losses: @UF (22), BAMA (1)


    Michigan
    Top 25 wins: PSU (13), WISCONSIN (17)
    Top 50 wins: @MSU (32)
    Losses: @ND (6)

    OSU
    Top 25 wins: @PSU (13)
    Top 50 wins: @MSU (32)
    Losses: @PURDUE (40)


    Clemson
    Top 25 wins: @TAMU (21)
    Top 50 wins: CUSE (39), NC ST (49), @BC (46)
    Losses: NONE


    OU
    Top 25 wins: NONE
    Top 50 wins: @IA ST (34), @TTU (26), OK ST (27)
    Losses: TEXAS (41)

    WVU
    Top 25 wins: NONE
    Top 50 wins: @TTU (26), @ TEXAS (41)
    Losses: @IA ST (34)


    WSU
    Top 25 wins: UTAH (15),
    @STANFORD (25)
    Top 50 wins: NONE
    Losses: @USC (36)

    Some thoughts:
    • Almost all the losses listed are on the road or neutral site. Relatedly, lots of the losses on the road occurred against lower ranked teams (e.g. WSU losing @USC, WVU losing @IA ST, OSU losing @Purdue, etc.). Consequently, road wins and home losses should be weighed heavily.
    • To that point, Bama winning @LSU is a big effing statement.
    • The Pac 12 isn't as bad as I thought. It's comparable to the Big 12. The ACC probably doesn't get enough crap, after Clemson it's pretty ugly.
    • The worst losses listed above by a fair margin are OSU @Purdue, WVU @IA ST, and WSU @USC. Those teams should be dinged accordingly.
    • I was overrating LSU a bit in my mind. That loss @UF isn't pretty and they were lucky to get 3/4 games against the top 50 at home. Compared to UGA who has won 3/5 of their games against the top 50 on the road. UGA is a worthy CCG participant.
    • Clemson's schedule is dreadful. They will be the most untested semifinalist if they make it - even the Big12 champion will have 2 games against the other top 10 Big12 team if they should make it.
    • I'm flipping ND over Michigan. However, if UM can beat OSU on the road, that's enough for me to flip them again, wins against top 50 Cuse and top 50 @USC notwithstanding. Same with respect to UGA.
    • The loser of the SEC CCG will have a legitimate argument that they are still a top 4 team. Going on resume alone UGA belongs ahead of Michigan, and based on the eye test ahead of ND and on par with Clemson. But with things this close, I think being a conference champion should be enough to push non-SEC teams into the Final 4. I totally support a 5+3 approach though going forward for this reason.
    • WVU @OK ST on Saturday is IMMENSE!
    • ND @USC in week 12 is an opportunity for them to make a decent statement, especially if USC wins against UCLA and WSU can continue holding serve, since WSU lost @USC.
    • Other regular season games that could shake things up: Bama vs. Auburn, WSU vs. Washington, Michigan @OSU, and LSU @TAMU (since Clemson and Bama also played them).

    Zoso's revised Top 10:

    1. Bama
    2. Clemson
    3. UGA
    4. ND
    5. Michigan
    6. LSU
    7. OU
    8. OSU
    9. WSU
    10. WVU

    Edit: I'm putting UGA 3 and ND 4.
     
    #51 Zososoxfan, Nov 12, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2018
  2. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

    Messages:
    1,302
    You're really just arguing for a return to reliance on preseason polls that the committee has rightly at least pretended to disavow. If you're ranked #20 preseason, but "shock the world" in an upset over the preseason #1, congratulations, you've become a top 5 team, no matter whether that preseason #1 proceeds to lose four of its next five.

    There is no reason to believe that "week 5 Stanford" was any better than average Stanford or current Stanford. They were highly ranked because they were named Stanford and were 4-0 (like many other teams). This is the very reason the committee waits until the end of October to release their initial rankings -- not just because it's harder to fairly differentiate the 4-0 Stanfords and the 5-0 Colorados from the true top 10ish teams, but because it's impossible to fairly value the quality of a win over one of those type teams until later.

    I don't think anybody actually believes that SOS is a "clear-cut metric" at all. There are many different ways to calculate it, which is why the rankings are different from system to system, and nobody I know here is relying on a simplified RPI-style SOS. But what *is* clear-cut at least to me, is that every SOS that uses a current assessment of the teams played is better than some wildly subjective assessment of opponent quality that includes speculation that certain losses "had something to do with the downward spiral each team suffered thereafter," and thus those teams' full record should be discounted.
     
  3. ConigliarosPotential

    ConigliarosPotential Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    You know I'm not arguing in favor of the committee actually using a wildly subjective and speculative assessment of opponent quality in determining its playoff rankings, right? My philosophical argument, to the extent that I have one, is more that 11-12 games is such a small sample size that all of the committee's work is going to be a crapshoot to some extent - there's just not enough available evidence to forensically prove anything. (Except that Alabama is #1, and both of my deceased grandmothers can figure that out.) I'd much rather have the committee rely upon SOS as a key part of its deliberations than not, but at the same time, I think there are plenty of people who do think SOS is a clear-cut metric, and there are times when it definitely isn't that, particularly when QB changes are involved over the course of a team's season.
     
  4. PaulinMyrBch

    PaulinMyrBch Don't touch his dog food Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    What rating are you using?
     
  5. Zososoxfan

    Zososoxfan Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
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    Current S&P+.
     
  6. PaulinMyrBch

    PaulinMyrBch Don't touch his dog food Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
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    Got it. Thought you were using Sagarin, so I couldn't match up the numbers.
     
  7. Monbo Jumbo

    Monbo Jumbo Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    23,927
  8. Zososoxfan

    Zososoxfan Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Just because I'm on this kick, I decided to look at the distribution by conference in the S&P+ top 10, top 25, and top 50.

    Top 10:
    SEC - 2 (BAMA, UGA)
    B1G - 2 (UM, OSU)
    MWC - 2 (FRESNO ST, UTAH ST)
    ACC - 1 (CLEMSON)
    ND - 1 (ND)
    Big 12 - 1 (OU)
    AAC - 1 (UCF)

    Top 25:
    SEC - 8 (2+6) (LSU, MS ST, AUBURN, TAMU, UF, MIZZOU)
    B1G - 4 (2+2) (PSU, WISCO)
    PAC 12 - 3 (0+3) (WASHINGTON, WA ST, STANFORD)
    BIG 12 - 2 (1+1) (WVU)
    ACC - 1 (!) (CLEMSON)
    ND - 1 (ND)
    AAC - 1 (UCF)
    SUNBELT - 1 (APP ST)
    CUSA - 1 (N TEX)
    MWC - 2 (2+0)

    TOP 50:
    SEC - 10 (8+2) (KENTUCKY, S CAROLINA)
    B1G - 7 (4+3) (MSU, IOWA, PURDUE)
    BIG 12 - 6 (2+4) (TTU, OK ST, IA ST, TEXAS)
    ACC - 6 (1+5) (MIAMI, CUSE, NC ST, BC, VIRGINIA)
    PAC 12 - 4 (3+1) (USC)

    Edit: Sorry, but I got lazy with the non-P5s in the top 50. I'll try and come back and fix later. The MWC and some of these conferences seem like a lot of fun though!
     
    #58 Zososoxfan, Nov 13, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2018
  9. ConigliarosPotential

    ConigliarosPotential Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Huh. That formula shouldn't really work, and yet, its results have a veneer of plausibility.

    My biggest questions right now are these:

    1) Unless Alabama loses to both Auburn and Georgia, is it even possible for Bama to miss out on the playoff at this point? I suspect it isn't, even if everyone else in the top 6 or 7 wins out.

    2) If Alabama loses once - presumably to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game - what seed would they get in the playoff? An undefeated Clemson would probably jump Bama, but would an undefeated Notre Dame, or a one-loss Georgia? (Or a one-loss Michigan, if Georgia somehow contrives to lose to Georgia Tech but then defeat Bama?)

    3) If Notre Dame loses once, and both Ohio State and Oklahoma win out, how might the committee rank ND vs. tOSU vs. OU? (Presumably two of those three would get into the playoff in this scenario, assuming Alabama and Clemson both win out.)
     
  10. Ale Xander

    Ale Xander Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    18,759
    3) ND loses out. SOS reasons. Although I guess it's possible they edge Oklahoma if committee is worried about ticket sales. (No such problem with tOSU, Michigan, Georgia, or Clemson)

    (Assuming it would be for the Miami spot)


    Alabama to Dallas and Clemson to Miami seems a formality.

    Georgia and OK are messing things up since they're closer to the venue than the better seeds.

    If Michigan/OSU winner wins out, they're one of the other teams (and can go either way, and sell tickets to either place). Same with SBCC.

    Committee is probably hoping for Michigan, Clemson, and SBCC to win out.
     
    #60 Ale Xander, Nov 13, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2018
  11. Ale Xander

    Ale Xander Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    18,759
    UCF tied at 8th with LSU in the AP

    Just need to jump 2 teams per week

    Could be #6 by next week fairly easy since OK and Wash St have tough games
     
  12. jaytftwofive

    jaytftwofive lurker

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    308
    You don't have to like ND but you know they are better then Oklahoma. You have to have Clemson 2nd.
     
  13. jaytftwofive

    jaytftwofive lurker

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    308
    ND beat Michigan so that has to put them over them.
     
  14. Ale Xander

    Ale Xander Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    18,759
    Dude, that was almost 2 months ago.
     
  15. ConigliarosPotential

    ConigliarosPotential Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Notre Dame wearing pinstripes in Yankee Stadium can do much to impair one's better judgment.
     
  16. jaytftwofive

    jaytftwofive lurker

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    Ooops didn't see that.
     
  17. jaytftwofive

    jaytftwofive lurker

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    308
    Agree, they were one ugly uniform. All those years ND played in Yankee Stadium they always wore there gold and blue and white. uniforms. What has baseball and the Yankees got to do with college football.
     
  18. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    35,413
    It has a lot to do with selling more jerseys.
     
  19. Zososoxfan

    Zososoxfan Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
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    CFP Rankings:
    1. Alabama (11-0)
    2. Clemson (11-0)
    3. Notre Dame (11-0)
    4. Michigan (10-1)
    5. Georgia (10-1)
    6. Oklahoma (10-1)
    7. LSU (9-2)
    8. Washington State (10-1)
    9. UCF (10-0)
    10. Ohio State (10-1)
    11. Florida (8-3)
    12. Penn State (8-3)
    13. West Virginia (8-2)
    14. Texas (8-3)
    15. Kentucky (8-3)
    16.Washington (8-3)
    17. Utah (8-3)
    18. Mississippi State (7-4)
    19. Northwestern (7-4)
    20. Syracuse (8-3)
    21. Utah State (10-1)
    22. Texas A&M (7-4)
    23. Boise State (9-2)
    24. Pittsburgh (7-4)
    25. Iowa State (6-4)

    S&P+:

    1. Bama
    2. Clemson
    3. UGA
    4. Michigan
    5. OU
    6. ND
    7. UCF
    8. OSU
    9. Fresno St.
    10. Washington
    11. Miss St.
    12. Utah

    I went to 12 because UCF and Fresno.
     
  20. thehitcat

    thehitcat Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Is that Utah at #12 in the S&P+ list actually Utah State?
     
  21. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

    Messages:
    1,302
    No, it’s Utah.
     
  22. Ale Xander

    Ale Xander Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    18,759
    As of 4:25

    1. Bama


    2. Clemson


    3. Georgia
    4. SBCC




    5. UCF
    6. Oklahoma
    7. tOSU
    8. LSU
    9. Michigan
    10. Florida
     
  23. shawnrbu

    shawnrbu Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    22,220
    1. Bama
    2. Clemson
    3. SBCC
    4. Georgia
    5. Oklahoma
    6. Ohio State
    7. UCF
    8. Michigan
    9. Florida
    10. LSU
     
  24. Sox and Rocks

    Sox and Rocks Member SoSH Member

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    5,565
    I think you can argue UCF over tosu, but otherwise you nailed it
     
  25. canderson

    canderson Fomenting voting confusion and angst since 2016 Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    I have little doubt the committee ends up jumping OSU over OU and Georgia. Pretty evident from ESPN they want OSU and drive the narrative.
     
  26. Sox and Rocks

    Sox and Rocks Member SoSH Member

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    5,565
    Heading into championship week:

    Alabama is in regardless. With a win they're clearly #1, but where will they be with a loss?

    Notre Dame is in. The only question is seeding; likely 3; maybe 2. 4 is possible but a long shot.

    Clemson is in with a win, probably #2.

    Georgia is in with a win, probably at 3 or 4.

    Oklahoma is in with a win and a Clemson or Georgia loss.

    tosu needs two of Georgia, Clemson, and OU to lose. They also need to jump UCF, which the probably will.

    UCF is probably left out no matter what, but I'd love to be wrong.
     
    #76 Sox and Rocks, Nov 25, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2018
  27. Sox and Rocks

    Sox and Rocks Member SoSH Member

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    5,565
    Does it matter if they jump Georgia, given that Georgia will definitely be in with a win over Alabama and definitely out with a loss?

    The only debate that matters is OU vs tosu.
     
  28. canderson

    canderson Fomenting voting confusion and angst since 2016 Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    1. Alabama
    2. Clemson
    3. Notre Dame

    ...

    Georgia/OU (sucks and is losing to Texas so it’s irrelevant)/OSU all say they deserve a shot. It should be Georgia imo even if they lose. I think they jump OSU over them though.
     
  29. Dan Murfman

    Dan Murfman Member SoSH Member

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    3,370
    Are you talking just this week rankings? Because there is no way Georgia is being left out if they beat Alabama next week.
     
  30. canderson

    canderson Fomenting voting confusion and angst since 2016 Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    I’m assuming Georgia loses.
     
  31. mikeot

    mikeot Member SoSH Member

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    Are they still the same team after losing their QB?

    Worldwide Leader: "... the biggest question moving forward is whether UCF can beat Memphis next week in the AAC championship game to claim another spot in a New Year's Six game without their best player and unquestioned leader."
     
  32. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    30,728
    The QB getting hurt bailed out the committee. They didn't want UCF, and now, without their best player, they can point to the "eye test."
     
  33. Awesome Fossum

    Awesome Fossum Member SoSH Member

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    1,418
    Even with Milton out, the doomsday scenario is still UCF crushing Memphis, Bama crushing UGA, and Ohio State and Oklahoma losing in their championship games.
     
  34. Zososoxfan

    Zososoxfan Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,655
    Signed.
     
  35. BigMike

    BigMike Dope Dope

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    21,131
    Yes, I think that is the only chance UCF has to make it.

    I do think UCF deserves the new year 6 slot even if they lose to Memphis. Unless it is some bad blowout where UCF offense looks horrible without their qb
     
  36. Awesome Fossum

    Awesome Fossum Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,418
    I would agree, but the automatic slot is reserved for the highest ranked G5 conference champion, so UCF wouldn't be eligible if they lose.
     
  37. wilforks dingleberry

    wilforks dingleberry lurker

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    In what world is a two loss conference runner-up more deserving than a 1 loss conference champion? Why even play the games if that is the case? UGA has to win to be in. Sorry, sometimes you actually have to win a game before just being handed something because "SEC!!". UGA has exactly two 'quality' wins, over Florida and Kentucky- the two most overrated teams in the country. They got smoked by the best team they've played this year, a 3 loss LSU team.

    1 loss Bama vs 1 loss conference champions OU/OSU is a more interesting debate. The committee is supposed to value conference champions, and I can see the other conferences being up in arms if Bama is in over a one loss conference champion. Last year was different because OSU had two losses, including another embarrassing loss to a bad Iowa team. In 2015, OSU was left out because they lost the one game they couldn't afford to lose- to Sparty to keep them out of the conference championship game. That 2015 OSU team was the most talented in the country and the defending National Champion. They went on to smoke Michigan the following week and obliterated ND in the Fiesta Bowl, but were left out of the playoff because they lost the one game they could not afford to. Same could happen to Bama. In fact, the 538 CFP prediction tool (which admittedly is not great and is often wrong as it had Bama @ 40% last year and OSU @ 60% heading into the final rankings last year) has a Bama loss dropping their chances to 23%. OSU and Oklahoma winning drops that even further to 15%.

    For the record, a UGA loss drops their chances to 3%. OSU/OU winning drops UGA's chances to less than 1%.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/
     
  38. Was (Not Wasdin)

    Was (Not Wasdin) family crest has godzilla SoSH Member

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    1,747
    Alabama got in last year at Wisconsin's expense, even though Bama didnt even make their conf. championship game. Wisconsin got penalized for a close loss in a conference championship game at a neutral site to a very good opponent. If Clemson, OSU and OU take care of business in their games, I'm not sure Alabama gets in if they lose. OSU didnt get that courtesy in 2015, in large part because MSU jumped them in the rankings, and then won the conf championship game. Very similar situation to that this year if Bama loses (and the other favorites all win). ND would be in, Clemson would be in, Georgia would have to be in as the best of the 1 loss conference champions. I dont think you can give Alabama the nod over OSU or OU in that scenario.
     
  39. LoweTek

    LoweTek Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Milton left barely halfway through the second quarter. The score was 7-0 at the time. The final was 38-10.

    I'm not going to argue Milton's loss isn't huge but as I have said before, there is a lot more to this team than any single element. They are very well balanced. A 25-30 point blow out of Memphis would not surprise me a bit. A loss certainly would.

    I see their only shot as Alabama wins, tOSU and one of Clemson or OK lose. If all of Alabama win, tOSU loas, Clemson loss and OK loss they are also in.

    I see neither of these outcomes as very likely but then again, who thought Michigan would fare so poorly against a very mixed performing tOSU?

    Regardless, it will be an interesting weekend.
     
  40. ConigliarosPotential

    ConigliarosPotential Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    I'm all for giving the non-P5 schools a seat at the playoff table - but does anyone really want to watch Alabama crush UCF in the national semifinals? (Although I suppose the counter-argument is that I'm not looking forward to watching Alabama crush Ohio State or Oklahoma in the national semifinals, either...)
     
  41. shawnrbu

    shawnrbu Member SoSH Member

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    22,220
    The committee snubs UCF by ranking Michigan ahead of them. In the unlikely event Georgia, Oklahoma and Ohio State all lose on Saturday, I would expect Georgia to be #4 instead of UCF.
     
  42. canderson

    canderson Fomenting voting confusion and angst since 2016 Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    This is a joke.
    1. Alabama
    2. Clemson
    3. Notre Dame
    4. Georgia
    5. ou sucks
    6. Ohio State
    7. Michigan
    8. UCF
    9. Florida
    10. LSU
    11. Washington
    12. Penn State
    13. Washington State
    14. Texas
    15. Kentucky
    16. West Virginia
    17. Utah
    18. Mississippi State
    19. aggy
    20. Syracuse
    21. Northwestern
    22. Boise State
    23. Iowa State
    24. Missouri
    25. Fresno State
     
  43. DukeSox

    DukeSox Rick Derris SoSH Member

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    10,659
    That they are that high or that Florida is behind Michigan?
     
  44. Ale Xander

    Ale Xander Member SoSH Member

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    Its BS that Texas and UCF are that low.

    It's their desire for flexibility to get tOSU into the playoff if they beat Northwestern convincingly.
     
  45. canderson

    canderson Fomenting voting confusion and angst since 2016 Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Both. Michigan got blown the hell out. There probably aren't 100 Florida fans that think they're the 9th best team in the country.

    Penn State at 12 is laughable too.
     
  46. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

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    The joke is three-loss (two to bad teams), and about to be four-loss Texas being as high as 14. Consensus rankings has them outside the top 20: https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm And They’re 35th in S&P+.

    Michigan, Florida, and PSU are all about right.
     
  47. rguilmar

    rguilmar lurker

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    Michigan seems off to me. They just got blasted by #6 tOSU last week. Recency bias matters here. One position in the standings indicates a marginal difference between teams. Can anyone really say that there is a marginal difference between UM and tOSU after watching the game just three days before these rankings came out?
     
  48. BigMike

    BigMike Dope Dope

    Messages:
    21,131
    It won't matter, but I just don't see any reason to rank Michigan over UCF. Need more punishment for that embarrassment last weekend

    Florida at 9 just shows how quickly you drop down to 3rd tier teams. They are closer to #30 or lower than they are to a top 4 team. #24 Missouri beat the living shit out of them
     
  49. nolasoxfan

    nolasoxfan Member SoSH Member

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    After yesterday’s games, I can’t see how it won’t be:
    1. Alabama
    2. Clemson
    3. ND (join a friggin conference!!)
    4. Oklahoma

    Is Georgia better than #s 3-4 (maybe even #2). Yeah, probably... but I don’t see how the committee picks them over OU.
     
  50. McBride11

    McBride11 Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Yup. Can't see the committee giving UGA 4 and then another Bama - UGA game. Putting UGA at 3 instead of ND would be fun. But I think gonna shake out as (which doesn't accurately reflect true ability)

    Bama
    Clem
    ND
    Oklahoma
    UGA
    UCF
     

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