Who Retires First: Brady or Belichick?

We have a lot of time to wait this next fortnight. Much of our idle time will be spent thinking about these things. Might as well get a debate started.

Belichick is 66, and is "good here, good this year, good for a while". A decade ago (A Football Life, 2009) he swore you wouldn't catch him like Marv Levy, coaching into his 70s, but he seems to have no reason to consider doing anything else.

Brady is 41 and swears he's playing till he's 45, or till he sucks. His wife doesn't like him taking shots to the head, but neither does his OL, and his OL coach appears to be a sorceror.

Bill may feel an obligation to stay through a QB transition to leave the franchise in a better state. However, Tom might feel likewise, especially if that successor is Josh McDaniels.

What's the likeliest outcome here?

 

Kind of a depressing thought in a time of revelry. I think Brady will go first due to Father Time. I’ve read in the past that BB doesn’t want to be coaching into his seventies but I’ve also read recently that he is nowhere near stopping.
There are plenty of reasons for him to stay like chasing the wins record, getting Steve more experience, duty and desire to make sure the club is doing well post Brady before he hands it off. I wonder what his plans are and how it will end but I worry less about the end of Belichick.

I would guess Belichick coaches for 2-3 years (maybe more) after Brady retires.

 

I feel like Bill wants to do a season or two without Brady. I'm basing this on nothing.

4 years is a long time for Brady to stay playing, I don't see it. In 2014, he said he had 7-8 in that leaked email. He's almost there, so 43ish sounds about right. But if he wins this year, I wouldn't blame him to step down.

 

I really hope they go out together. I don’t want to see Bill or TB12 play without each other. Whether it’s after this season or next or 5 years from now. Hit the reset button and start with a new HC and QB. That’s where I’m at.

 

The romantic best case scenario is that they both retire at the same time and people get to debate who was the real reason for success forever, but I feel like Belichick will want to coach at least a couple of years longer to get a chance to win one without him.

 

If I have to choose, it's Brady retiring first. But I'd like to see them both go out together.

 

Hoping Brady retires first. I want Belichick to break the all time wins record while Don Shula is still alive, simply so he can witness it and die face first in his morning breakfast of granola and prunes.

 

I want Brady to retire before we have to witness him looking like Manning did in his last season. Realistically that probably means within the next 2-3 seasons, maybe sooner.

Similarly I would not want to see BB standing on the sidelines once the game passed him by, or once he no longer has the energy and passion to do the job the way he has always done it. That seems much farther off to me. The Pats certainly do not have the most talented roster but IMO he still manages to get more out of his guys than any other coach in the league.

 

Everybody assumed that Duncan and Popovich would go out together and Pop is still cranking along. I think Belichick definitely outlasts Brady unless some health event comes up.

 

I really want to see BB win a title without TB, or better yet, 2 straight.

 

Or he considers part of his duty to leave the team well positioned to succeed after he retires and therefore doesn’t believe his own future should impact personnel decisions.

 

I think Brady retires first. They both already go through brutal regimes to extend their careers, but only Brady's is constricted by physical limitations (or at least those limitations are closer at hand). I think BB sees the all-time wins mark is getting close and wants it.

 

I think this is difficult to predict because I don't see a gradual winding down. Belichick and Brady both love the grind, not just the Sunday games but the Wednesday practices and the film work and the preseason and the conditioning work, etc. I don't think it's something where Brady will say "two years is enough" and play two more years - I think one day he will wake up and not want to do his pliability exercises or practice or rehab or whatever and just call it quits. Same with Belichick - when he no longer enjoys the day-to-day of game-planning and watching film and coaching and planning practices and signing players, he's done. I don't think either of them have any idea and I think retirement by either will be very sudden.

Obviously Brady is in a position to be forced to retire involuntarily sooner; on the other, of the two, he seems the more maniacally devoted to enduring as long as he possibly can. Nothing will surprise me. I don't think one's status will affect the other, either way (i.e., either wanting to retire simultaneously or wanting to hang around to win without the other).

 

Like Coach Fedders!

 

I feel like Option C isn't getting the amount of attention it deserves

 

Kraft on Good Morning America today praying for one more season.



"In anything in life the key is getting good people around you and creating a culture where everyone is open to disagree, but keep it in the family, which is hard sometimes, especially in the business that's so public," Kraft said.
But Kraft is confident that Brady's leadership, hard work and "selflessness" is the "key" to continuing the team's winning culture on Super Bowl Sunday.
The team is headed back to the championship this year after falling short to the Philadelphia Eagles in their Super Bowl appearance last year.
"Once you have good people, the trick is to try to have continuity," Kraft said. "But please God, one more season that Tommy and Bill Belichick, who are the best at what they do in my opinion, will be with us for 20 years -- two decades."

https://kfh.radio.com/articles/abc-news/patriots-owner-robert-kraft-prays-one-more-season-tom-brady

 

They beat the Rams in the SB in two weeks and jointly announce their retirements immediately after.

There. I said it.

 

Shulas a dick, But man he was good.
Playoffs was 3rd all time in wins to BB and Landry (no disgrace there)
328 wins. Thats amazing. Look at BB. 19 Years (+5 of relative mediocrity) of total domination and he still "only has" 261. The difference (67) is Jim Harbaughs career number of games (64) Plus John Fassel (3). Not wins. Games.
It will take 7 more years of 10 win seasons to get the record. Or about the same number of wins Steve Marinucci has or a seasons worth ( 9 more) then Rex Ryan has in his career.
Marinucci and Dan Reeves have the same amount of wins as BB. You could add in Herm Edwards and Still not have as many as Shula. Thats 40 years of seasons. (23+9+8)
Shula has almost 3 times more wins then Buddy and Rex Ryan combined.
Both Harbaughs together have 56% of the wins BB has. And only 45% of the wins Shula has.
Sean Payton, Pete Carroll, Josh McDaniels and Mike Vrabel have less wins combined then BB.
BB has more wins then Jimmy Johnson, Jason Garrett and Vince Lombardi Combined.
Madden, Lombardi and Jim Caldwell have the same numbers of wins as BB. Add in Ron Rivera and you almost get to Shula.

And BB is still is over 67 wins from the record. And its not like Shula was a mediocre coach for 60 years. Shulas win % is .677. BBs is .680.
Shula coached 33 years which is a metric shit ton (only Halas has more at 40 and Shula is tied with Lambeau). As mentioned above if BB gets 10 more wins per year for 7 more years BB will be at 31 years.

While Shula drowning in his morning porridge is a pleasant thought just remember when BB gets it how freaking untouchable that record should be.

 

Were they rebuilding when the Matt Cassel Patriots went 11-5?
Why do they need to rebuild if the QB leaves?

 

Because they don’t have a viable successor and you can’t win without a QB?

Edit: how many wins do you think Etling or Hoyer have in them? If they draft a guy it’s a different conversation, but comparing the talent level of this team right now to 2008 is kinda silly.

 

Unless he could move to one of the 10 or so teams that already has a good QB, he'd be in the same predicament elsewhere but additionally having to rebuild from the ground up instead of just the QB position. And teams that already have a good QB are much less likely to fire the head coach to open up a spot for him.

 

Wont you be surprised when the 2024 Brady-less patriots line up in a single wing:

 

I'm pretty confident if Brady retires, the Patriots will target a QB.... Particularly given the extra cap room that would free up.

 

In making employment decisions, I think the ownership team that's behind him is more important to BB than the possibility of already having good players.

 

Well of course, but if we’re talking about BB coaching another 6/7 years and averaging 10/11 wins, they need to get him in house, quickly. So you’re looking at the dichotomy of trying to extend the window (in a year with a shitty QB class) or maximize it by focusing draft picks on needs like front seven on defense, WR, TE. Brady’s cap room is kind of irrelevant as any QB worth his salt isn’t likely to get to FA. We need to come to grips with the fallow period coming in the next few years; I’m just not sure BB is gonna want to be around for them. He’s stated multiple times he’s not going to be Marv Levy.

 

Brady's cap room is very relevant because in the event he retires, you draft someone who makes a lot less and have a bunch of money you can use to improve other positions.

 

Yes, this is the new method in the NFL - get a QB on a rookie contract. Oh weird, the Patriots suddenly have 6 picks in the first 3 rounds.... either to use this year or to use to position for 2020.

Even if they bring in a QB that you don't want to start right away, a veteran could be brought in for a year or two.

Also I hate this thread for distracting us from the awesomeness that is 4 super bowl appearances in 5 years, potentially 3 super Bowls victories.

 

He last said that in 2009. Now his sons are on staff, his daughter coaches lacrosse right down the road and he's got a partner, Linda, who is said to really enjoy the football life. Things change. Maybe they haven't, but the situation is pretty different these days.

 

It’s definitely the new path, problem is that this year sucks for QBs and they have bigger needs for those six draft picks. To your second point, I’m not sure BB wants to be a part of bringing in the 2022 version of Sam Bradford.

 

Please keep speculating what BB wants and doesn’t want while exaggerating the situation to fit your narrative.

 

They are in pretty decent shape. Key free agents are:

Flowers
Gostkowski (franchise?)
Trent Brown
Hogan/Patterson/Dorsett (none major, but together show you need work at the position)

Auto cuts seem like Dwayne Allen and 94. Also a big question about Gronk. Returning from injury are Wynn and Bentley, and they also redshirted Berios.

If Gronk stays, the Pats have probably 35-40 million to spend, if he goes about 45-50. Brady is also a likely candidate to extend and shed cap space. Finally, McCourty could also be a surprise cut (saves 10 million) or restructure candidate, which could open up more space. My guess is he restructures, but who knows.

They also have 12 draft picks, half of which are before the 4th round.

There’s a ton that could happen this offseason between franchises, trades, retirements, extensions etc., but I’d say overall the odds are pretty good the team they field next season wins more than 11 games. The Jets could be pretty good, though, and I just have a feeling they’re going to steal Flowers from us, which would really suck. We’ll see.

 

The thing about BB right now is he doesn't give any fucks about what anyone thinks. Mortal coaches get burned out by the grind, but also by the pressure to win, from media, fans, front office and ownership. BB basically doesn't have to contend with that pressure, or doesn't seem to give a shit about it to the extent it exists, and while we don't really know he seems to still really enjoy the grind part. That all can change quickly, but the factors that typically get other coaches don't seem to apply to BB.

For Belichick you'd probably put him in the same camp as a Shula or a Landry, he is a franchise icon and has basically unlimited credibility, those guys were only forced to leave once it became obvious the game had passed them by, or there was an ownership change, or both. BB does not appear close to that yet.

It's all speculation but to the extent there was a little fire after all of the smoke last season and last off season, it does sort of seem like he wants to see what happens post-Brady. Who knows, he might see it as a different challenge and if he could quickly coach up a rookie QB and turn them into a contender again without Brady that completely changes the story people will tell about him.

 

You’re right, everyone else here is working off stone solid evidence.

 

I was beaten to proposing a vet FA quarterback bridge. Circumstances are always fluid - or sandy solid at best - and you could in the future have a quality vet forced out by a younger QB like Manning with Luck, or a quality vet near the end and tired of a losing or underperforming franchise like, say, Rodgers.

Assuming Brady's status as GOAT means his salary will be greater than most FA replacements, Brady's money may also be spent on a Bradford (or someone who fits the OC's system best) AND on the bulking up of a different position (for instance, a better TE available in FA). This might help compensate for any drop-off in QB play. I'm not saying this will happen, but that it's a different path for BB to pursue while remaining on target for the all-time wins mark with a Pats team in transition.

In the meantime, I think it's fairly obvious that BB will be using draft picks on rookie QB's. He's collected enough surplus picks to take flyers and continue to maintain the team's quality on other units. If the stories are true we know Mayfield was already a target (and it's reassuring to see they may have been right on him) although frustrating they couldn't reel him in.

EDIT - Apologies to Joe Sixpack for going over some ground he well trod on - and much more succinctly!

 

I have the same feeling, based on almost nothing. Here’s what it’s based on: Tebow. Yeah, crazy. Why would he have even looked at Tebow? Don’t get me wrong: he didn’t see Tebow as a straight up replacement for TB12 ( it that it was relevant at the time) I just think that BB has a curiosity about how to turn the QB position into something more fungible, where it doesn’t ALL depend on that one guy.
That’s a pretty weak thing to base my opinion on, I admit.

I don’t want to see TB play without BB, because I think BB has more years left in him than TB, so that would mean TB playing elsewhere, which is heresy.
But if TB retired I’d enjoy watching BB try to make something else happen. I enjoyed 2008, and I enjoyed the first few games of 2016.

 

Can I have the number of your dealer?

 

We also cant forget that in the 19 times (or 20) The Pats have played without Brady (since he was named starter) they have won 14 (or 15) of them.

So there's a decent sample size of BB and his staff coaching up guys who have proven to be mediocre other places, to above average status here.

Given a more talented player (Then Cassell or Brisset, Maybe Jimmy G applies) they may be able to repeat that and win 10ish games consistently.

 

So their non-Brady winning percentage is right around .750? Shocker!

 

That Cassell team was loaded. They went 16 - 0 the year before.

 

Not only that, they played a joke schedule. Four games against the AFC West (8-8 division winner) and four against the NFC West (9-7 division winner). There's a reason three AFC East teams finished that year with a winning record.

 

Note: the below information supports SN's point.

Football Outsiders ranked the Patriots 11th with a 9.2% DVOA, 9th on offense with 14.6%, 20th on defense with 8.9% (that's below average) and 6th on special teams with 3.5%. If I'm reading this right, FO estimated the Patriots would average 9.0 wins against average competition. They show them as having the 3rd easiest schedule (only BUF & NYJ weaker opponents).

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2008/final-2008-dvoa-ratings

 

This is some home-grown madness, baby! But really I’m just reading the Tebow leaves.

 

With Tebow specifically I think he saw a possible RB/TE/WR playing as a QB.. maybe in the mold of Hill for New Orleans.. maybe a change of pace guy? Bill has always looked for diversifying players over various positions on defense especially. Before Hernandez murdered people he was just starting to use him as an RB and TE.. moving him all over the place. That next season with him and an in prime Gronk would have been spectacular. The last couple games of the previous season as I recall BB had started experimenting with unorthodox lineups. I think Tebow would have fit that mold if he wanted to be anything other than a QB.

 

Hot take!

They stay together as long as Dante Scarnecchia is in the fold.

As soon as Dante bails, Tom says, "IDK, I kinda like my ribs" and goes.

BB goes when he looks at his available applicants for the offensive line coach and the QB positions.

OTOH, BB and TB also say to themselves, "as long as this old guy can keep going, I ought to be able to."

 

C’mon guys we’re smarter than this...

Win the SB in two weeks. Brady retires.

Belichick lands Nick Foles and the good times keep rolling.

The Eagles forever regret keeping Wentz and are cursed for beating the Pats in the SB for the foreseeable future!

 

It's actually .500 (19-19) since Belichick became HC, or 14-8 since the start of the 2001 season. I don't know why the cutoff for most people is after Brady's first start.

 

Because this thread is about Brady and Belichick? If you’re going to do that you might as well include Belichick’s time in Cleveland too.

 

I hate the fucking Eagles, man.