What does the Red Sox 40-Man Roster look like in 2024?

[JM3]

Here was Jen McCaffrey's take on the Red Sox 40-man in The Athletic from last week:

https://theathletic.com/4979102/2023/10/24/red-sox-40-man-roster-2024/

She divided players into long term commitments, building blocks, final year of control, cheap role players & some other categories. Her list of players to potentially trade was Verdugo, Dalbec & Houck. Players on the 40-man that she mentioned were on shaky ground were Jacques, Mills, Llovera, Garza, Urias, Weiss & Gillaspie. She mentions Wikelman, Drohan & Perales as players who will likely need to be added to the 40-man & cites Song, Hagenman, Paulino, Fernandez & Scott as other players to think about as it relates to the R5 draft.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Sox outright Garza, clearing a spot on 40-man
View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1720179900558999885

 

[simplicio]

Do Llovera next!

 

[RedOctober3829]

Turner and Kluber decline 2024 options.
https://x.com/chrishenrique/status/1720568053207859373?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q

 

[jon abbey]

https://x.com/chrishenrique/status/1720568053207859373?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q

"Red Sox today declined RHP Corey Kluber’s 2024 club option.

Justin Turner today declined his 2024 player option."

 

[chrisfont9]

Turner's buyout is worth $6.7m, so it wouldn't take much to extend him and top what he would have gotten in the player option ($13.4m). Of course another team can top that too. But this initial step is understandable and doesn't mean he's leaving...yet.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Turner's buyout is worth $6.7m, so it wouldn't take much to extend him and top what he would have gotten in the player option ($13.4m). Of course another team can top that too. But this initial step is understandable and doesn't mean he's leaving...yet.

The $6.7M is a sunk cost and should be considered against what he made last year. I don’t think it has anything to do with what he is looking for in the next year, he’s not going to take less than the Sox because he already got a decent amount in a buyout. The market will dictate what he agrees to.

 

[JM3]

As outlined here (https://bit.ly/49fzpXp) the Sox are now on the hook for the leftover $4.15MM in AAV against the 2024 CBT for Turner.

Kluber carries no 2024 CBT hit.

The last option decision is Joely Rodriguez ($4.25MM; $3.75M AAV), who would also carry no 2024 obligation if the team declines.

40-man now at 38, pending JRod.

Payroll estimate is at $199MM.

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxpayroll/status/1720571469262926161

 

[YTF]

Turner's buyout is worth $6.7m, so it wouldn't take much to extend him and top what he would have gotten in the player option ($13.4m). Of course another team can top that too. But this initial step is understandable and doesn't mean he's leaving...yet.

Apologies if I'm reading you wrong, but it seems like you're suggesting that the $6.7M plus a bit more to top $13.4 M option should get the deal done. You have to consider that $6.7M is his and he's under no obligation to low ball himself. Considering the season he had last year he's got to be able to get more than 15-16 for one season from someone. IF he elects to give the Sox any sort of consideration for the opt out $$$ I'm guessing that the ask is similar to what he signed for last year with room for negotiation.

 

[JM3]

Apologies if I'm reading you wrong, but it seems like you're suggesting that the $6.7M plus a bit more to top $13.4 M option should get the deal done. You have to consider that $6.7M is his and he's under no obligation to low ball himself. Considering the season he had last year he's got to be able to get more than 15-16 for one season from someone. IF he elects to give the Sox any sort of consideration for the opt out $$$ I'm guessing that the ask is similar to what he signed for last year with room for negotiation.

I agree that the $6.7m is only relevant to the extent whether it makes financial sense whether to opt into an additional $6.7m.

But in '22 in his age 37 season he was a 124 wRC+ player (2.4 fWAR) & in '23 in his age 38 season he was a 114 wRC+ player (1.2 fWAR).

The 114 was his worst by 9 points since 2013. On the flip side he improved from 2.0 bWAR to 2.1 bWAR, but I really don't see a reason he would be worth as much as he made last year ($15m with an extra $6.7m insurance policy if he needed it) after hitting worse than he has in 10 years & being a year older.

 

[chrisfont9]

The $6.7M is a sunk cost and should be considered against what he made last year. I don’t think it has anything to do with what he is looking for in the next year, he’s not going to take less than the Sox because he already got a decent amount in a buyout. The market will dictate what he agrees to.

Nobody is saying the Sox have an advantage because of the buyout. But it IS why he opted out.

 

[chrisfont9]

Apologies if I'm reading you wrong, but it seems like you're suggesting that the $6.7M plus a bit more to top $13.4 M option should get the deal done. You have to consider that $6.7M is his and he's under no obligation to low ball himself. Considering the season he had last year he's got to be able to get more than 15-16 for one season from someone. IF he elects to give the Sox any sort of consideration for the opt out $$$ I'm guessing that the ask is similar to what he signed for last year with room for negotiation.

Thanks, no I was simply saying that of course he took the buyout because any sort of market at all for him would top the $13.4 he had on the table. I'm not as bullish as you on his next deal, although having said that the market for offense is pretty thin so maybe you are right. Anyway, he will probably go to the highest bidder, unless there are minor differences and he's attached to one team or city.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Nobody is saying the Sox have an advantage because of the buyout. But it IS why he opted out.

What is why he opted out? He opted out because he can make far more than $6.7M. No offers to him, from the Sox or anyone else, will take into account the $6.7M buyout that he got, it’s completely irrelevant.

 

[YTF]

What is why he opted out? He opted out because he can make far more than $6.7M. No offers to him, from the Sox or anyone else, will take into account the $6.7M buyout that he got, it’s completely irrelevant.

Yes, he opted out because whatever the market bears for him the opt out effectively augments that by $6.7M. Let's say the best deal he can get is in the $12M range, he's basically being paid $18.7M which is about $5.3M more than his deal with the Sox would have paid him.

 

[chrisfont9]

Yes, he opted out because whatever the market bears for him the opt out effectively augments that by $6.7M. Let's say the best deal he can get is in the $12M range, he's basically being paid $18.7M which is about $5.3M more than his deal with the Sox would have paid him.

Yep we are all saying the same thing.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Yep we are all saying the same thing.

Never stopped us before

 

[YTF]

Never stopped us before

I'm sure my wife is wondering why I'm laughing right now.

 

[chrisfont9]

Never stopped us before

I don't agree with that. It's totally never stopped us before.

 

[JM3]

40 man roster is at 37 right now with Jarren Duran & Wyatt Mills coming off the 60-day IL.

View: https://twitter.com/jcmccaffrey/status/1721648516668461264


Teams have until November 14th to add people to the 40 & protect them from the Rule 5 Draft.

 

[JM3]

Here's who those 37 are:

Given the recent players who came off the roster to become free agents, and Jarren Duran and Wyatt Mills being reinstated from the 60-day IL, Boston's 40-man roster is now at 37.

Pitchers (21):Brayan Bello, Brennan Bernardino, Kutter Crawford, Logan Gillaspie, Tanner Houck, Joe Jacques, Kenley Jansen, Zack Kelly, Mauricio Llovera, Chris Martin, Bryan Mata, Wyatt Mills, Chris Murphy, Nick Pivetta, Nick Robertson, Chris Sale, John Schreiber, Brandon Walter, Zack Weiss, Garrett Whitlock, Josh Winckowski

Catchers (2): Reese McGuire, Connor Wong

Infielders (7): Triston Casas, Bobby Dalbec, Rafael Devers, David Hamilton, Trevor Story, Luis Urías, Enmanuel Valdez

Outfielders (5): Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran, Rob Refsnyder, Alex Verdugo, Masataka Yoshida

Infielder/Outfielders (2): Ceddanne Rafaela, Pablo Reyes

View: https://twitter.com/IanMBrowne/status/1721649279985487931

 

[greenmountains]

Here's the 40 man roster (which is currently 37) ....I've struck thru those that are less than league average and could go if needed. Yes we would lose some, but truly replacement level.

Pitchers
(21):Brayan Bello, Brennan Bernardino, Kutter Crawford, Logan Gillaspie, Tanner Houck, Joe Jacques, Kenley Jansen, Zack Kelly, Mauricio Llovera, Chris Martin, Bryan Mata, Wyatt Mills, Chris Murphy, Nick Pivetta, Nick Robertson, Chris Sale, John Schreiber, Brandon Walter, Zack Weiss, Garrett Whitlock, Josh Winckowski

really (18) three could be left unprotected....and I didn't include Bernardino, Robertson or Weiss on this list.

Catchers
(2): Reese McGuire, Connor Wong

Infielders
(7): Triston Casas, Bobby Dalbec, Rafael Devers, David Hamilton, Trevor Story, Luis Urías, Enmanuel Valdez
(5) - Are the Sox going to get anything for Dalbec? He is a AAAA player. He has value if unprotected, but no one will give anything of value. I treat Urias and Valdez as essential interchangable 2nd base options, but Urias is going to make almost 5m, please go ahead and claim him. I didn't include Hamilton...as he likely has pinch runner value (if he can get to adequate defensively).

Outfielders
(5): Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran, Rob Refsnyder, Alex Verdugo, Masataka Yoshida

Infielder/Outfielders
(2): Ceddanne Rafaela, Pablo Reyes

(1) Is Reyes the definition of replacement level? Is he worth risking losing, probably not. Would it be a huge lose to overcome, no.

This 40 man roster could only have 31, and I'd not lose any sleep. Management can be more aggressive protecting some of the upcoming talent. Is 9 spots too much for rule 5 protection and FA signings? Probably. I get protecting Dalbec and Reyes if only to spin them for a lottery ticket.

Would anyone trade any of the listed 6 for:

• Shane Drohan
• Luis Peralas
• Wikelman Gonzalez
• Brainer Bonaci
• Eddinson Paulino
• Noah Song (my binky)

And I get we tend to overvalue our unproven minor leaguers. But add these 6 and still have 3 spots for FA.

 

[JM3]

I would add Wyatt Mills to the list of removable guys. He's out for '24 after TJ. I also consider Zack Weiss, Brandon Walter & David Hamilton fairly fungible.

In terms of your 6, I think Song is safe. He's very far from being a MLB pitcher right now. & Bonaci is currently on the abuse/DV list, so I think we're currently safe on having to add him.

I would put Allan Castro in the same bucket as Paulino in the top 20ish Sox prospects who haven't played higher than A+ who are probably safe but it would suck to lose for nothing.

Don't really see much point in trading Perales/Wikelman/Drohan at it's not exactly dealing from an area of strength. Unless someone else values them much higher than Breslow does.

Zach Penrod, Grant Gambrell & Ryan Fernandez are also potentially R5able pitchers.

 

[JM3]

Tomorrow at 6 p.m. is the deadline for adding people to the 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft.

View: https://twitter.com/masslivesports/status/1724018284054327797

The articles lists Wikelman, Perales & Drohan as players who should be added. It has Gambrell, Bastardo & Penrod on the bubble. & it mentions Paulino, Castro, Fernandez, Fitzgerald, Scott & Song as players to consider. Then they mention Bonaci separately because he's still on the restricted list.

 

[JM3]

The Athletic has a similar article...

Likely adds: Wikelman, Perales, Drohan

Possibilities: Song, Hagenman, Fernandez

...and that's it. Feels like someone stole half their article with that list?

https://theathletic.com/5052821/2023/11/13/red-sox-rule-5-draft-possibilities/

 

[JM3]

Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects list:

Protected:
Perales
Drohan
Wikelman

Maybe:
Fernandez
Gambrell
Penrod

Left eligible:
Bastardo
Bell
Bonaci
Castro
Cepeda
Hagenman
Liu
Lugo
Koss
Paulino
Politi
Sena
Scott
Song
Zeferjahn

 

[JM3]

Perales & Wikelman were the only 2 added. Drohan was not...

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1724566786387923359

 

[billy ashley]

Kind of shocked they left Drohan unprotected. It's very likely he gets picked given his proximity to the majors and interesting stuff. Not a huge upside guy, but he made some pretty big leaps in recent years.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Only way this makes sense is they are expecting to use that roster spot flexibility before December 7.

 

[TheYellowDart5]

I feel like part of the problem is that they already have two Shane Drohans in Brandon Walter and Chris Murphy. How many back-of-the-rotation lefties can you reasonably carry on one roster?

 

[JM3]

I feel like part of the problem is that they already have two Shane Drohans in Brandon Walter and Chris Murphy. How many back-of-the-rotation lefties can you reasonably carry on one roster?

Those guys are easy enough to move on from if you think Drohan is actually a guy. & there's still a lot of flotsam on the 40-man. But we shall see how it all plays out. On the surface I'm not a fan, though.

 

[chrisfont9]

I've beaten this drum before but it seems like there are advantages to putting a guy out there now, as opposed to later when a fairly predictable 40-man roster crunch forces you to DFA a guy. At least in this case there's a decent chance Drohan comes back to the Sox because he doesn't belong on a major league roster. Think of it as either stashing him in our non-40 (if he isn't picked) or stashing him on another team's ML roster until he can't hang.

 

[amfox1]

Drohan (AA 22/23) 58IP, 40H, 6HR, 20BB, 57K
Drohan (AAA 23) 89IP, 103H, 19HR, 63BB, 93K

His control is not good enough for the majors. He got hit hard in AAA (1.9HR/9IP).

Walter (AAA 23) 94IP, 99H, 10HR, 35BB, 88K
Murphy (AAA 23) 62.2IP, 63H, 7HR, 31BB, 61K

Neither of them performed that well in Worcester either, although Murphy showed some improvement in Boston.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

The dreaded 40 man roster crunch is always fun to talk about…but never really a thing. Drohan was torched in AAA; maybe he gets taken but I kind of doubt he will end up being the next Johan Santana. It’s worth the risk, IMO.

 

[amfox1]

Gillaspie claimed off waivers by SD. 40-man roster down to 38.

 

[JM3]

BA lists Drohan has one of their top 10 available R5 picks.

View: https://twitter.com/SPChrisHatfield/status/1724909303700816228

Shane Drohan listed as one of the 10 best players available in the Rule 5 Draft, noting how good his changeup was last year as well as how much he struggled in AAA.

Not a foregone conclusion he gets picked but it's very possible someone takes a flier.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

BA lists Drohan has one of their top 10 available R5 picks.

View: https://twitter.com/SPChrisHatfield/status/1724909303700816228

He's totally getting picked and is more likely to contribute as a BP arm than Song was last year. I still think I would have tried to protect him at this point over some of the flotsam on the 40 (which includes Dalbec). I'm guessing they're still seeing Dalbec as a AAAA replacement guy if Casas or Devers gets injured? Or as a part of a trade package?

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Drohan had a 7 ERA in AAA and had 6+ BB/9. He will be 25 when the season starts. He’s interesting, sure, and maybe he gets taken but what about him suggests he’s ready to contribute to a major league team?

 

[simplicio]

Same thing that suggested Thad Ward was ready last year: he's available and free to some basement dwelling team that can stomach rostering him for a year.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Drohan had a 7 ERA in AAA and had 6+ BB/9. He will be 25 when the season starts. He’s interesting, sure, and maybe he gets taken but what about him suggests he’s ready to contribute to a major league team?

He's left handed and flashed plus stuff in AA last year. He's 25 and close to the majors. He's going to get taken.

The floor for a left handed pitcher is so much higher at the major league level.

 

[JM3]

Drohan had a 7 ERA in AAA and had 6+ BB/9. He will be 25 when the season starts. He’s interesting, sure, and maybe he gets taken but what about him suggests he’s ready to contribute to a major league team?

There's nothing about his Worcester stint that suggests he's ready. He was erratic, couldn't choose between a cutter & a sweeper & lost several mph.

But he was really good in Portland to start the season, throwing mid 90s with an excellent changeup. In his 6 starts for Portland he had a 1.32 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 2.4 bb/9.

It seems like for whatever reason, despite not having good pitchers, the Red Sox are leaving interesting pitchers available in the R5 each year when other teams simply aren't.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

What’s the potential loss, though? Thad Ward was terrible last year and will be 27 to start next season. Maybe he’s got a bright future ahead of him and the Sox will regret losing him, but the most likely outcome is that it’s totally irrelevant. You can’t protect everyone and there’s only so many 40-man spots you can devote to players you don’t think are ready to help. It’s a gamble for sure- but the likelihood that he is selected, sticks on a roster all year, and the Sox end up regretting it seems somewhat low and has to be balanced with the Sox other options for the roster spot.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

What’s the potential loss, though? Thad Ward was terrible last year and will be 27 to start next season. Maybe he’s got a bright future ahead of him and the Sox will regret losing him, but the most likely outcome is that it’s totally irrelevant. You can’t protect everyone and there’s only so many 40-man spots you can devote to players you don’t think are ready to help. It’s a gamble for sure- but the likelihood that he is selected, sticks on a roster all year, and the Sox end up regretting it seems somewhat low and has to be balanced with the Sox other options for the roster spot.

I get this... but there's a lot of replacement level guys with much lower ceilings and probably the same floor. There's a lost opportunity to work through whatever went wrong with him between AA and AAA. He flashed pretty impressive talent in AA so seems to me that a few months of bad performance when he stated that he was "working on pitches over results" is making a decision that's not necessary at this point.

 

[JM3]

What’s the potential loss, though? Thad Ward was terrible last year and will be 27 to start next season. Maybe he’s got a bright future ahead of him and the Sox will regret losing him, but the most likely outcome is that it’s totally irrelevant. You can’t protect everyone and there’s only so many 40-man spots you can devote to players you don’t think are ready to help. It’s a gamble for sure- but the likelihood that he is selected, sticks on a roster all year, and the Sox end up regretting it seems somewhat low and has to be balanced with the Sox other options for the roster spot.

The potential loss is a middle of the rotation starter who is cost controlled for 6 years & would provide a huge surplus value.

Summation: Potential back-end starter. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Even that projection might be light as there is a chance he takes another step forward with his stuff in the future.

https://soxprospects.com/players/drohan-shane.htm

Is that the most likely outcome? Absolutely not, but they seem to lose value around the margins that other teams don't. Several other teams traded people who would need adding to the 40 for other players who are further away.

The Rays have a much deeper system than we do & less flotsam on the 40, but still manage not to have guys taken in the R5.

We had 3 pitchers taken last year & I wouldn't be shocked if we had 4 this year (Drohan, Gambrell, Penrod & Fernandez).

Sure, they probably wouldn't all be gone regardless, but it just seems like a poor use of resources.

Take Ryan Fernandez for example. He is 25 & throws in the high 90s & has potential high leverage bullpen stuff. He was dominant in AA but struggled in AAA, mostly due to an astronomical home run rate. His control isn't bad (10.3 k/9 & 2.9 bb/9 in AAA). Why is he not an ideal guy to start the year in Worcester & have ready & on the 40 when you need bullpen help?

& it's not like we needed more room on the 40. We literally just released Logan Gillaspie after the deadline & have 10 guys on the 40 who we could easily move on from.

But to the point about Thad Ward, my main issue with that is why not just trade the guy for some flyers? I don't think he'll ever be more than like a 6th or 7th starter so I'm not particularly concerned about not having him on the 40 but what are we holding on to by trying to sneak him through & then having him be the #1 pick?

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

A lot of the pitchers on the current 40-man (Mills, Llovera, Jacques, Weiss, Kelly) are placeholders and will be replaced by free agents / acquired players soon. I see Drohan in the grouping with Mata, Murphy, Walter. I think there’s only so many of those guys you can keep.

As for why they didn’t trade Thad Ward, I’m guessing he didn’t have any value. Frank German was in a similar spot and the Sox didn’t get much when they traded him. These fringe 40-man guys are fun to talk about but seem pretty fungible.

 

[JM3]

A lot of the pitchers on the current 40-man (Mills, Llovera, Jacques, Weiss, Kelly) are placeholders and will be replaced by free agents / acquired players soon. I see Drohan in the grouping with Mata, Murphy, Walter. I think there’s only so many of those guys you can keep.

As for why they didn’t trade Thad Ward, I’m guessing he didn’t have any value. Frank German was in a similar spot and the Sox didn’t get much when they traded him. These fringe 40-man guys are fun to talk about but seem pretty fungible.

& you can't just replace all your relief pitcher depth with non relief pitchers. So a guy like Fernandez makes a lot of sense for one of those spots. We should also not need to add that many FAs as we should be focused more on the big ticket items as we already have plenty of meh.

We got a decent flyer relief pitcher for German. & have German back.

You're telling me the Nationals wouldn't have happily given up a meh asset to be able to develop Ward as a starter in AAA last year rather than having him sit in the bullpen aimlessly all year last year & be able to draft someone else in the R5?

& a guy like Walter doesn't have mid-rotation upside or the ability to currently be a good MLB pitcher, so why are we prioritizing him over others?

Mata is basically a bullpen only option next year. We shall see if he has it in him. He definitely has the arm for it.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

How would the Nats have been able to keep Ward in AAA last year?

We’ll see what happens, either they think that Drohan won’t get selected / retained all year, or they aren’t that high on him.

 

[jon abbey]

How would the Nats have been able to keep Ward in AAA last year?

If the Red Sox had dealt him before the 40 man deadline to WAS, JM3 is saying that could have been beneficial for everyone.

 

[jon abbey]

The danger with that approach though is that you genuinely cut ties. NY had Nestor Cortes taken in the rule 5 by BAL at one point but he wasn't ready and was offered back to them. If they had traded him as JM3 suggests, then he never comes back to NY.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

The danger with that approach though is that you genuinely cut ties. NY had Nestor Cortes taken in the rule 5 by BAL at one point but he wasn't ready and was offered back to them. If they had traded him as JM3 suggests, then he never comes back to NY.

Yeah, every decision is somewhat of a gamble and weighing all the odds. Some work out, some don’t.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

The danger with that approach though is that you genuinely cut ties. NY had Nestor Cortes taken in the rule 5 by BAL at one point but he wasn't ready and was offered back to them. If they had traded him as JM3 suggests, then he never comes back to NY.

I get what you're saying about Cortes and agree with that. But on the opposite side of that coin, you may be able to get something for a guy that you're going to lose for nothing. Even if it's a player with a .01% shot of being a contributor to the ML team, it's better than 0%.

At the end of the day, it's all about the confidence you and your staff have in the ability to separate prospects from suspects. If there's one thing that we know Breslow knows, it's pitching. No one is going to be 100%, but if he doesn't think that Drohan has the stuff, I tend to believe in him.