What does the Red Sox 40-Man Roster look like in 2024?

[JM3]

This is the final installment in the series, & was what I was planning on putting in 1 thread until I got a bit carried away. Although I may do a 2024 budget post at some point, but not soon...

I would expect all these players to definitely be on the 40-man roster unless they are traded away for at least some value:

Startable Pitchers (7)
Brayan Bello
Chris Sale
Kutter Crawford
Tanner Houck
Garrett Whitlock
Nick Pivetta
Chris Murphy

Relief Pitchers (5)
Kenley Jansen
Chris Martin
John Schreiber
Josh Winckowski
Brennan Bernardino

Catchers (2)
Connor Wong
Reese McGuire

Corner Infielders (2)
Rafael Devers
Triston Casas

Middle Infielders (2)
Trevor Story
Luis Urías (or a different guy, but they definitely need 2 minimum)

Outfielders (5)
Masataka Yoshida
Alex Verdugo
Jarren Duran
Ceddanne Rafaela
Rob Refsnyder

That leaves 17 more spots on the 40-Man. Here are other guys already under control with at least some case to be on the 40.

Startable Pitchers (5)
*Bryan Mata - Already on the 40. Season lost to injury, but talented pitcher and might get a few games in before the end of the season.
*Brandon Walter - Already on the 40. Good ERA with Red Sox, even if it looks like a mirage. My personal preference would be to trade him for a flyer or 2 who don't need to be on the 40.
*Luis Perales - Rule 5 Eligible. SoxProspects #7 prospect. Has not been in A+ for long, but has the best stuff in the system & could easily be stashed in the bullpen by a bad team (& his stuff is so good he might even be ok in that role).
*Wikelman Gonzalez - Rule 5 Eligible. SoxProspects #8 prospect. Has been pitching pretty well in AA. Excellent stuff. Could easily be stashed in the bullpen by a bad team & stuff might play in that role.
*Shane Drohan - Rule 5 Eligible. SoxProspects #11 prospect. Struggled mightily since being promoted to AAA, but was great in AA & is now pitching differently for some reason. Not really sure what's going on, but is still highly regarded & may need protecting.

Other guys like Angel Bastardo & Grant Gambrell may be poached in Rule 5, but those are probably just risks you have to take.

Relief Pitchers (5)
*Zack Kelly - Was pretty good last year. Injured all year this year, but is throwing & may pitch a bit before the end of the season. Already on the 40.
*Nick Robertson - Struggled in his 1st inning with the Red Sox, but decently regarded prospect. Already on the 40.
*Ryan Fernandez - Rule 5 Eligible. SoxProspects #27 prospect. Struggled since promotion to AAA, but looked nasty his last time out (6 up, 6 down, 4 strikeouts) & he throws 99-100. If he gets it together could be a high leverage bullpen arm soon.
*Joely Rodriguez - They could pick up his $2.5m option. He was good in his last stint. I think they probably won't because he was cheaper last year & missed most of this year due to injury, but he's an option.
*Andrew ("A.J.") Politi - Was taken by the Orioles in the Rule 5 last year. Eligible again this year. Has been closing pretty ok for Worcester. Could be ready to be a Major League contributor. Rule 5 eligible again.

I'm fine letting guys who are already on the 40 like Garza/Ort/Llovera/Jacques walk or stick around but not be on the 40. Same with Wyatt Mills since he's probably missing all of next season. & if someone wants to ride the Rule 5 wave with Ryan Zeferjahn, who throws hard af, but walks more than a batter an inning, more power to them. Also ok letting Justin Hagenman go if someone wants him that bad.

Catcher (2)
*Ronaldo Hernandez - Out of options, which makes carrying him challenging unless you trade Wong or McGuire
*Stephen Scott - Rule 5 eligible. Has been raking. Will be 26 next season. 2-fold question regarding whether his defense is good enough at catcher & if he can hit well enough to play other positions.

Corner Infield (1)
*Bobby Dalbec - Already on the 40. Mashes in AAA. If they get rid of him, & don't re-sign Turner, they will definitely need some sort of additional depth piece here.

Middle Infield (4)
*Pablo Reyes - Currently on the 40 (& leading off tonight smh). They will definitely need at least 3 MI on the Major League Roster.
*Enmanuel Valdez - Currently on the 40. Has hit well in AAA. Hit ~ok with Red Sox. Defense is problematic, though.
*David Hamilton - Currently on the 40. Wouldn't really lose any sleep if he lost his 40-man spot. Fast af, but not sure if any of his other skills, including hitting & defense, play at a Major League level.
*Brainer Bonaci - Rule 5 eligible. SoxProspects #12 prospect. Hit really well at A+ this year & has been promoted to AA. Might be someone worth protecting.

Arroyo is kind of around still, but not for long. Fine taking our chances with someone trying to steal Eddinson Paulino.

Outfield (1)
*Wilyer Abreu - Already on the 40. Has been playing well in AAA.

I'm probably fine letting Allan Castro go if someone wants him. He's Rule 5 eligible & SoxProspects #20 prospect, but he only recently was promoted to A+ (& I think they overrate him a bit).

That makes 41, & there's no way we're carrying 4 catchers, so we have our 40 & can start the season!

Except the whole acquiring more players in free agency with the $80m+ we have to spend, or trades.

So one final summary of what I'd like to see:

Startables (12)
This seems like an appropriate #. Bring in 2 high end guys, trade Walter & 1 or 2 other guys.

Relievers (10)
This seems like an ok #, if guys like Houck/Whitlock are filtering to the bullpen, we should have an appropriate amount of quality, too.

Catchers (3)
I think they should keep Stephen Scott to ensure we don't see any more Aquaman/Caleb travesties next year, but idk.

Corner Infielders (3)
I think they should upgrade on Dalbec here & trade Dalbec.

Middle Infielders (6)
They could potentially use an upgrade or two in here, & I wouldn't be sad if The Blizzard (David Hamilton) found a new home.

Outfielders (6)
Feels like they could use a 7th guy on the 40 (perhaps instead of 1 of the middle relievers). Could be a spot for a free agent. Or I guess Castro if they love Castro.

 

[WrenHorn]

I think it's very likely that Alex Verdugo is traded and some money goes toward replacing him. It's also not clear to me if Justin Turner is going to opt out -- I doubt he's likely to make significantly more than his contract calls for. It seems like the Red Sox will either need to commit to Pivetta as a SP or do him a solid and trade him.

I think it's very unlikely any of Kelly, Robertson, Fernandez or Politi [or Mills] will keep their 40 man spots given the depth needed. The only option that I think might is Joely, who has shown impact potential with health.

I think it's more likely the Red Sox keep Hamilton [who has legitimate + skill with speed] than Valdez, who probably doesn't have a major league position. I'm not certain Abreu is an automatic keep either given his likely ceiling. In short, depth is a good thing to have but there is plenty of "flotsam and jetsam" to cycle around without too much repercussion.

 

[JM3]

Turner only needs to make more than $6.7m on his next contract for opting out to be the correct financial choice.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

So if Mayer were to wow everybody in Ft Myers next spring, he would need to be added to the 40-man? Makes it less likely he breaks camp with the big club.

 

[JM3]

So if Mayer were to wow everybody in Ft Myers next spring, he would need to be added to the 40-man? Makes it less likely he breaks camp with the big club.

Mayer isn't eligible for the Rule 5 draft until after the 2025 season. They will hopefully have already added him to the 40-man before then to put him on the Major League roster.

But if they haven't, they would add him then.

 

[LogansDad]

So if Mayer were to wow everybody in Ft Myers next spring, he would need to be added to the 40-man? Makes it less likely he breaks camp with the big club.

Two months ago I was all aboard giving him basically a full tryout in spring training, but between his struggles in Portland and his shoulder injury, I would be very surprised to see him break camp with Boston in the spring. In fact, I now expect him to spend some more time in Portland before being moved up to Woostah, unless he comes back in the next few days (was eligible to return today, but did not) and dominates for the next month.

 

[jon abbey]

So if Mayer were to wow everybody in Ft Myers next spring, he would need to be added to the 40-man? Makes it less likely he breaks camp with the big club.

NY didn't need to add Volpe yet this year, it's not so hard once spring training opens and you can put guys on the 60 day IL. The 40 man crunch is generally after each season, because then everyone on the 60 day has to be added or released.

 

[Rovin Romine]

This is the final installment in the series.

I have to say, it's a bit unusual to see this sort of off-season analysis this early in the season. It doesn't make your observations invalid or anything, but what are you going to do in December?

 

[JM3]

I have to say, it's a bit unusual to see this sort of off-season analysis this early in the season. It doesn't make your observations invalid or anything, but what are you going to do in December?

I was leaning toward a combination of resting on my laurels & spending time with my family, while staying clear of the doomsayers. & work I guess.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I was leaning toward a combination of resting on my laurels & spending time with my family, while staying clear of the doomsayers. & work I guess.

It's good to have a plan.

 

[LogansDad]

I was leaning toward a combination of resting on my laurels & spending time with my family, while staying clear of the doomsayers. & work I guess.

I would like to aspire to this, at least the second half, as my laurels are slim and uncomfortable compared to yours.

I will probably fail, though.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Absolutely great thread, but this is the possible Mega-Thread where all ML and mL rosters, pitchers, regulars, BP guys, etc all overlap. My only question is about Drohan.... do we have any information on if his velocity has dropped? Is he dealing with a minor injury? Is he throwing different pitches looking at process over results? Obviously the 3rd would be nice to know and would bump his potential back up in my eyes at least

 

[JM3]

Absolutely great thread, but this is the possible Mega-Thread where all ML and mL rosters, pitchers, regulars, BP guys, etc all overlap. My only question is about Drohan.... do we have any information on if his velocity has dropped? Is he dealing with a minor injury? Is he throwing different pitches looking at process over results? Obviously the 3rd would be nice to know and would bump his potential back up in my eyes at least

This was the last thing I read on him.

View: https://twitter.com/IanCundall/status/1689438441149210630

 

[JM3]

This is the final installment in the series, & was what I was planning on putting in 1 thread until I got a bit carried away. Although I may do a 2024 budget post at some point, but not soon...

Not really ready for a full budget thread, but was just looking at the CBT. The Red Sox will be able to spend up to $277m next year where the only penalties will be financial (about $10.4m of tax). $277m & above, their 1st round pick would be moved back 10 spots (& their draft pool would be reduced accordingly).

I would expect them to treat that $277m line they treated the $233m tax threshold this year & make sure they stay under it, with the flexibility to add a bit as the season progresses.

The Red Sox currently have 8 players under contract for about $153.1m for next season (Spotrac lists them as having 9 with $159.8, but that includes Justin Turner as his contract is guaranteed if he wants it, & he will almost certainly opt out & trigger the $6.7m buyout).

[TH]PAYROLL TYPE[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]TOTAL[/TH]

Competitive Balance Tax Threshold	$237,000,000
Est. Active AAV/Payroll	$138,863,519
Est. Player Benefits	$17,000,000
Est. Minor League Contracts	$2,250,000
Est. Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool Contribution	$1,666,666
Est. Tax Payroll	$159,780,185
Est. Tax Payroll (Active + Est. Arb + Est. Pre-Arb)	$159,780,185

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/2024/

In order to figure out what the Red Sox have available to spend, one has to figure out how much their arb & pre-arb players will receive. The pre-arb is pretty easy...they each get $740k. Quick skim I see 19 of those guys, so thats' an extra $14,060,000.

It doesn't look like arbitration estimates come out until like October, so for now I will just make stuff up. I have decided, fairly arbitrarily, that the Arb guys (including Verdugo, Pivetta, Urias, McGuire, Schreiber & a few others), will combine for around $30m, but let's round up to be safe, & round up a couple million more & say the Red Sox are at $200m heading into next off season, & have $77m net to spend this off season. I now see where my $80m estimate came from...

 

[JM3]

One thing I just realized - I don't think if all of the $6.7m if Turner declines counts against our cap next year. Will have to figure out those details later & am too lazy right now (unless someone knows).

& just for completeness & because it will need to be in the Budget Thread if I ever make one, here are the AAVs for Luxury Tax purposes of all of our players currently under contract for '24:

3B Rafael Devers $29.15m
SP Chris Sale $25.6m
SS Trevor Story $23.33m
LF Masataka Yoshida $18m
CL Kenley Jansen $16m
RP Chris Martin $6.75m
P Garrett Whitlock $4.69m
OF Rob Refsnyder $2m

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

One thing I just realized - I don't think if all of the $6.7m if Turner declines counts against our cap next year. Will have to figure out those details later & am too lazy right now (unless someone knows).

& just for completeness & because it will need to be in the Budget Thread if I ever make one, here are the AAVs for Luxury Tax purposes of all of our players currently under contract for '24:

3B Rafael Devers $29.15m
SP Chris Sale $25.6m
SS Trevor Story $23.33m
LF Masataka Yoshida $18m
CL Kenley Jansen $16m
RP Chris Martin $6.75m
P Garrett Whitlock $4.69m
OF Rob Refsnyder $2m

If he declines, Turner's buyout will count against this year's cap and not next years. Same thing happened when the Sox released JBJ last year, the buyout on his 2023 option was paid out and counted against 2022. Turner's cap hit is going to go from $10.85M currently (the average of his 2/21.7M deal) to $15M if he opts out.

 

[JM3]

If he declines, Turner's buyout will count against this year's cap and not next years. Same thing happened when the Sox released JBJ last year, the buyout on his 2023 option was paid out and counted against 2022. Turner's cap hit is going to go from $10.85M currently (the average of his 2/21.7M deal) to $15M if he opts out.

Thx! Looks like they'll have about $84m to spend then.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

If he declines, Turner's buyout will count against this year's cap and not next years. Same thing happened when the Sox released JBJ last year, the buyout on his 2023 option was paid out and counted against 2022. Turner's cap hit is going to go from $10.85M currently (the average of his 2/21.7M deal) to $15M if he opts out.

So if the Sox had this year‘s cap calculated to the penny, Turner opting out would kill that?

I thought JBJ was different because he was released.

 

[JM3]

So if the Sox had this year‘s cap calculated to the penny, Turner opting out would kill that?

I thought JBJ was different because he was released.

They left themselves some buffer room for things like this & bonuses I believe (which fed into the cheapness narratives based on payroll rank).

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

So if the Sox had this year‘s cap calculated to the penny, Turner opting out would kill that?

I thought JBJ was different because he was released.

My assumption is that if the Sox are calculating to the penny, they're probably counting him as a $15M from the jump. Fortunately, all the tracker estimates have them between $10-17M under the cap. They should be good regardless of what Turner does.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

They left themselves some buffer room for things like this & bonuses I believe (which fed into the cheapness narratives based on payroll rank).

Ahhhh

 

[YTF]

Just a quick thought on Wong. In 106 games played he's struck out 111 times in 338 PAs. It seems reasonable that the total will be somewhere between 120-130 before all is said and done. If he can cut that down by 1/3 and put an additional 40 balls into play that would be huge for a guy hitting nearly .250 now out of the 8 or 9 slot.

 

[jbupstate]

Just a quick thought on Wong. In 106 games played he's struck out 111 times in 338 PAs. It seems reasonable that the total will be somewhere between 120-130 before all is said and done. If he can cut that down by 1/3 and put an additional 40 balls into play that would be huge for a guy hitting nearly .250 now out of the 8 or 9 slot.

Wong cutting down by the strikeouts by 10-15% makes him a plus offensive catcher. Putting the ball in play would utilize his speed and result in more hits. All while making peanuts. Just a great bottom of the lineup ball player.

Teel comes along and I’m sure Wong has decent trade value.

 

[YTF]

Wong cutting down by the strikeouts by 10-15% makes him a plus offensive catcher. Putting the ball in play would utilize his speed and result in more hits. All while making peanuts. Just a great bottom of the lineup ball player.

Teel comes along and I’m sure Wong has decent trade value.

Hit or out, any ball put into play has the opportunity to be more productive than non contact outs.

 

[jon abbey]

Hit or out, any ball put into play has the opportunity to be more productive than non contact outs.

Or less productive, if it's a double play.

 

[YTF]

Or less productive, if it's a double play.

I'll happily take my chances with an additional 40 balls put in play and even DPs can be productive if a run scores.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Maybe we can pass on Paxton after all. Not trading him at the deadline looks to be a huge mistake.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Maybe we can pass on Paxton after all. Not trading him at the deadline looks to be a huge mistake.

I don’t blame Bloom at all. They were very much in the mix, playing well with 4 key players about to return.
I think he’s injured again.

 

[JM3]

I was just looking at all the guys who churned through the bottom of the 40-man last off season in a different thread:

https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/9-7-2023-theres-no-haltin-dalton-rogers.40429/#post-5724763

Thought it might be instructive to list out the guys who are currently on the 40, on the 60 but would need to come back to the 40, & the guys who are becoming free agents so would not be on the 40. Will break it down by pitcher/hitter & tenure (date of add in parens, free agents in brackets). The # at the end is the running counter of guys that I would think the chances of them being DFA'd for no return is basically 0, so if they're gone before the 40-man draft roster date, it would be via trade:

Pitchers
Chris Sale (12/16) (#1)
Nick Pivetta (8/20) (#2)
Tanner Houck (9/20) (#3)
Bryan Mata (11/20)
Garrett Whitlock (12/20) (#4)
Kutter Crawford (11/21) (#5)
Josh Winckowski (11/21) (#6)
Brayan Bello (11/21) (#7)
[James Paxton (3/22)]
John Schreiber (5/22) (#8)
Kaleb Ort (7/22) - 60
Zack Kelly (8/22) - 60
Brandon Walter (11/22)
Chris Murphy (11/22) (#9)
[Joely Rodriguez 11/22)]
Chris Martin (12/22) (#10)
Kenley Jansen (12/22) (#11)
Wyatt Mills (12/22) - 60
[Corey Kluber (1/23)] - 60
Brennan Bernardino (4/23) (#12)
Justin Garza (4/23)
Joe Jacques (6/23)
Nick Robertson (7/23)
Mauricio Llovera (7/23)
Kyle Barraclough (8/23)
Zack Weiss (8/23)
Logan Gillaspie (8/23)

Hitters
Rafael Devers (7/17) (#13)
Bobby Dalbec (11/19)
Alex Verdugo (2/20) (#14)
Connor Wong (11/20) (#15)
Jarren Durran (7/21) - 60 (#16)
Trevor Story (3/22) (#17)
Rob Refsnyder (6/22) (#18)
Reese McGuire (8/22) (#19)
Triston Casas (9/22) (#20)
Enmanuel Valdez (11/22) (#21)
Ceddanne Rafaela (11/22) (#22)
David Hamilton (11/22)
Masataka Yoshida (12/22) (#23)
[Justin Turner (1/23)]
[Adalberto Mondesi (1/23)] - 60
[Adam Duvall (1/23)]
Pablo Reyes (5/23)
Luis Urias (8/23) (#24)

https://soxprospects.com/40man.htm

So we'll call those 24 guys 40-man locks barring trade for value (I was tempted to not include Pivetta, Refsnyder & Urias for different reasons, but think it's ok to leave them in there for now).

That would leave 16 spots for new additions to the 40 man, or room to keep more of the guys who are currently on the 40 that I don't have as locks. Will get into the guys who could need protecting in the next post.

Of course, just because players are on the initial 40, does not mean they will stay, as when free agents are acquired, they will need to be added to the 40-man & someone else will need to come off. This is why the Red Sox kept some lesser players on their 40-man roster last off season, while leaving guys like Thad Ward, Noah Song & AJ Politi unprotected because it is more likely you will lose a guy you DFA & who does not need to be on the acquiring team's Major League roster all season than it is to lose someone for good who has been drafted in the Rule 5 Draft (see, e.g. the Red Sox having Song & Politi returned to them).

 

[JM3]

Here is the complete list of guys who are Rule 5 eligible if not added to the 40-man, in alphabetical order. I will strikethrough all the ones I don't think have a chance to be taken, but feel free to express disagreement if you think I'm overlooking someone. There are a # of guys who I don't think will actually be taken on this list as well, but they're at least interesting enough to talk about, or close enough to the Majors:

December 2023 Rivaldo Avila Angel Bastardo Brock Bell Royman Blanco Brainer Bonaci Zach Bryant Maceo Campbell Allan Castro Brendan Cellucci Felix Cepeda Juan Chacon Casey Cobb Nathanael Cruz Luis De La Rosa Nick Decker Kelvin Diaz Jordan DiValerio Shane Drohan Juan Daniel Encarnación Alex Erro Albert Feliz Ryan Fernandez Ryan Fitzgerald Grant Gambrell Jhostynxon Garcia Wikelman Gonzalez Bryan Gonzalez Justin Hagenman Alexis Hernandez Gabriel Jackson Lyonell James Gilberto Jimenez Christian Koss Robert Kwiatkowski Chih-Jung Liu Eduardo Lopez Matthew Lugo Elih Marrero Yorberto Mejicano Ryan Miller Andrés Núñez Yusniel Padron-Artiles Eddinson Paulino Zach Penrod Luis Perales Railin Perez AJ Politi Jose Ramirez Oscar Rangel Jorge Rodriguez Ronald Rosario Cesar Ruiz Johnfrank Salazar Stephen Scott Cody Scroggins Reidis Sena Chase Shugart Karson Simas Nick Sogard Noah Song Dylan Spacke Joey Stock Luis Talavera Nate Tellier Michael Valera Brian Van Belle Diego Viloria Jeremy Wu-Yelland Ryan Zeferjahn https://soxprospects.com/rule5.htm

That is now how I expected that list to post, but oh well.

 

[JM3]

My assumption is that if the Sox are calculating to the penny, they're probably counting him as a $15M from the jump. Fortunately, all the tracker estimates have them between $10-17M under the cap. They should be good regardless of what Turner does.

Here's a bit of an update on this. I'll have to check what exactly he's done with Turner's option, but he has the Red Sox $7m under with the earned & could be earned still bonuses.

Incentives update with 20 games left to play: Adam Duvall enters today with 302 plate appearances. He's set to earn $500k each for 350, 400, 450, and 500 PAs, along with $1M for 550 PA. He seems likely to get to 350, but that's likely it. Justin Turner enters today at 556 plate appearances, 4 away from unlocking an additional $200k for 560PAs. He's already earned $1MM for hitting four PA thresholds before this (480, 500, 520, 540). This is the last of his reported earnings for the year. Adjusted payroll for expected bonuses achieved puts the team at ~$7MM below the first CBT threshold. Nothing down the stretch puts them at risk of exceeding.

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxpayroll/status/1700935614940528752

 

[JM3]

He has Turner at $11.65m, so if that's going to jump to $15m, that means they're still safely under by about $3.5m.

 

[JM3]

Might as well put this guy's take on things here...

View: https://twitter.com/HemmenKees/status/1707074082116685891


https://keesvanhemmen.medium.com/fall-in-new-england-making-sense-of-the-assets-chaim-bloom-leaves-behind-in-boston-part-0-the-b35012003198

https://keesvanhemmen.medium.com/making-sense-of-the-assets-chaim-bloom-leaves-behind-in-boston-part-1-position-players-22c722637594

https://keesvanhemmen.medium.com/making-sense-of-the-assets-chaim-bloom-leaves-behind-in-boston-part-2-the-pitching-staff-e77cf0bf2799

https://keesvanhemmen.medium.com/making-sense-of-the-assets-chaim-bloom-leaves-behind-in-boston-part-3-tying-it-all-together-and-cbed64dec7aa

 

[LynnRice75]

Might as well put this guy's take on things here...

View: https://twitter.com/HemmenKees/status/1707074082116685891


https://keesvanhemmen.medium.com/fall-in-new-england-making-sense-of-the-assets-chaim-bloom-leaves-behind-in-boston-part-0-the-b35012003198

https://keesvanhemmen.medium.com/making-sense-of-the-assets-chaim-bloom-leaves-behind-in-boston-part-1-position-players-22c722637594

https://keesvanhemmen.medium.com/making-sense-of-the-assets-chaim-bloom-leaves-behind-in-boston-part-2-the-pitching-staff-e77cf0bf2799

https://keesvanhemmen.medium.com/making-sense-of-the-assets-chaim-bloom-leaves-behind-in-boston-part-3-tying-it-all-together-and-cbed64dec7aa

Thanks for sharing. That’s pretty interesting analysis, and I look forward to seeing which of his scenarios play out.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Great read, thanks for sharing that.

 

[JM3]

Glad it didn't turn out being terrible. It looked pretty interesting, but hadn't had a chance to read it yet when I posted it.

His financial stuff seems pretty off, but the player opinions seem pretty well thought out, even if isn't necessarily ever going to agree with everything.

Examples of the financial issues:

I’m inclined to use the more conservative of those two numbers, and so 200 million is the one I’ll move forward with. Enrique Hernandez and Alex Verdugo (who I’ve traded for non-Major League assets in this hypothetical) will both be off the books, however, and RedSoxPayroll’s estimate has the Sox DFAing Pivetta, which almost certainly won’t be happening. Adjusting the 200 million dollar estimate in accordance with those changes puts you closer to 190.

Hernandez was already off the books for next year & Verdugo was listed at $10m, so putting Pivetta at like $6m (when the actual starting # was $201m) puts you at around $197m.

There are 47 million dollars to be spent between 190 million and the first CBT Threshold of 237 million for next year. More importantly, there are 67 million dollars between 190 and 257, which is the second CBT Threshold, and frankly the one the Red Sox should care about this winter.

I'm not sure why I should care about the $257m threshold over the $277m threshold. The only difference as far as I know is the marginal tax rate that FSG would pay on that next $20m in salary.

There’s a non-zero chance Justin Turner picks up his 13 million dollar player option, and that’s basically exactly what we’re looking for here. If we assume that — or an equivalent free agent acquisition — happens, we’re left with 54 million to spend on two starters.

I mean I guess literally non-zero...but I would be pretty shocked. & even if he did agree to play for the extra $6.5m, it would make sense to structure it as if he declined the option so the hit went into the '23 season anyway as they would still be under the threshold, and then he'd only be on the books for $6.5m this year. Still don't see it happening, though.

Still a good read.

 

[chawson]

If we're dealing for Soto — I doubt it — it's either contingent on an extension or it's a deal for one year of Juan Soto at an Arb3 price that might approach $30m. Now, as a 6 WAR player, that check is only half of what he's worth on a one-year deal. But the value on paper should be less than half the value of the Betts deal, for a benchmark.

BTV is a bit lower on Soto than I am, but they have him worth ~$20m of surplus value for 2024. I also suspect that Abreu will jump up somewhat in their next value update, but that Valdez will not.

So, Yorke straight up is roughly fair by their valuations. To build a viable deal around Abreu and Valdez, you'd have to take back some of a bad contract, too — like how the Dodgers got Betts. Maybe Soto, with Yu Darvish and ~$50m (in the role of David Price and $48m) for Abreu and Valdez? Something like that.

Honestly, if we were to take a bad deal back from the Padres to get a short-term asset, the guy I'd want would be...

*a great disturbance in the force, as an entire baseball message board groans and rolls their eyes in unison*

...Ha-Seong Kim. He's RH, posts good OBPs, and is one of the best infield defenders in baseball. He doesn't hit the ball terribly hard, but does hit a lot of fly balls to LF. He's under contract for 1/$7m plus some sort of mutual option for 2025. He had a tick more bWAR in 2023 than Juan Soto; ~1 fewer fWAR, though.

(Cross-posting this from @nvalvo from the Yoshida thread to the 2024 40-man thread.)

Taking Mookie’s arb2 and arb3 salaries as an example, Soto could actually exceed $30M next year. Mookie settled at $20 in 2019, and stood to make $27M in 2020 before the extension—a 35 percent increase. That same leap would put Soto at $31.05M in ‘24. Not to nitpick your point, just marveling at what’s likely to be an historically large arb salary.

Man, that Padres roster is a mess. I think Kim’s too valuable for them to move at this point, and Darvish's contract, through age 41, too disastrous. (I'm more interested in Musgrove, but he's a San Diego kid and unlikely to be moved.) OTOH, Darvish's AAV is a little lower going forward than it was in 2023, so acquiring him would "only" add $16.6 AAV over five years.

A guy like Cronenworth is nice and versatile, slots in as a plus defensive 2B whose bat seems like a good bet to rebound. The money (7/$80) is substantial but not crippling if he never does. We could also put Scott Barlow (1/$7~ million) or Austin Nola (FA 2026) to use. Maybe playing with his brother is an appealing prospect for Aaron Nola, if we decide to chase him in free agency.

If we know a Soto extension is possible, I wonder what the Padres say to Duran and Yorke as the foundation for Soto plus a bad contract like Darvish or Cronenworth. That's a massive overpay by the Sox says BTV, but each side has players that could help even something like that out.

 

[JM3]

Off season schedule:

Off-season dates:

2nd/3rd week of October:
-
@mlbtraderumors
publishes their always fantastic arbitration projections

Five days after the conclusion of the World Series:
-Free agency begins
-Contract option decisions due
-Qualifying offers must be made

10 days after QOs are due:
-Players have to accept or reject QOs (Nov)

~Nov 15:
-Rule 5 protection deadline

Nov 17:
-Non-tender deadline

Dec 6:
-Rule 5 draft

January 12:
-Arbitration agreements due

February:
-Arbitration hearings, if needed

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxpayroll/status/1708609924513624395

 

[JM3]

View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1710324171861828063

 

[Harry Hooper]

Among McAdam's musings today:

Be honest: When you saw MLBTradeRumors project Luis Urias for a $4.7 million salary for 2024, you immediately thought “non-tender,” didn’t you?

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Yeah, you can bring him back at a number quite a bit lower than that, I’d think.

 

[JM3]

According to Fangraphs, Urias was worth $17.1m in '21 & $18.2m in '22.

He was worth negative money this year, but his arb award was $4.7m this year & they don't really go down.

It's not an insane # if you think he's going to bounce back enough to be worth a roster spot next year.

 

[JM3]

I made this post in the Minor League Forum about guys who might need to be added to the 40-man roster to prevent them from being drafted in the Rule 5 Draft, but figured it also belongs here if anyone wants to discuss and/or has different opinions:

People are eligible every year until they are added to the 40 (or become Minor League free agents). There should maybe be a thread, but I think it would fit in fine with the '24 40-man roster thread in the main forum.

Here are the R5 eligible guys in order of my rankings. Will go down to Politi since he made your list:

SP Perales (#6) - Only made it to A+, but elite stuff, do not want to risk losing. Should add.

SP Wikelman (#9) - Made it to AA, elite stuff, do not want to risk losing. Should add.

MI Bonaci (#13) - Made it to AA, excellent defender. AFL was going to be interesting, but had to cut his stint short (if I had to wildly speculate, I think someone close to him passed away). Should probably add.

MI Paulino (#18) - Has only made it to A+, so probably safe, but I would be disappointed if someone took him. Probably shouldn't add.

OF Castro (#21) - Has only made it to A+, so probably safe, but I would be disappointed if someone took him. Probably shouldn't add.

SP Drohan #23 - Was kind of a disaster in AAA, so I think he's safe, but I would be disappointed if someone took him. Mixed feelings on adding.

SP Bastardo (#26) - Has made it to AA, where he did not pitch great. I think he's probably safe, but would be a bit disappointed if someone took him. He has an interesting profile & stuff. Probably shouldn't add.

SP Gambrell (#33) - Pitched pretty well in AAA at the end of the season. I would kind of like to see him added in lieu of someone like Brandon Walter. I think he has a pretty decent chance of being a reasonable depth arm. Have mentioned this before, but he profiles very similarly to Thad Ward, & I think he will probably get taken if we leave him unprotected. Should maybe add.

C Scott (#37) - Huge slump to end the AAA season after mashing for a long time. I'm not particularly concerned if someone wants to take him in the Rule 5 at this point. He's a lefty & not really good enough at defense to be additive to the current iteration of the Red Sox. Probably shouldn't add.

RP Fernandez (#41) - Was lights out in AA & struggled in AAA. Has really nice stuff & has back end of the bullpen potential. Just a matter of whether his control/command will ever be good enough. Probably depends on what else they do to address the bullpen this off season & what they think of him. Mixed feelings on adding.

SP Song (#45) - I don't think another team is going to jerk him around again next year like the Phillies did this year. I think we can safely not add him & hope for the best. He pitched ok in A+ at the end of the season, but has a long way to go to get back to where he was a few years ago. Should not add.

3B JOHNFRANK (#47) - I love Johnfrank, but he didn't even play great in A-Ball this season, so pretty sure he's safe. Should not add.

RP De La Rosa (#50) - I also irrationally love De La Rosa. He pitched well in A-Ball, but pretty sure he's safe. Should not add.

RP Cepeda (#51) - He's a really interesting case. He pitched great in A+ after being promoted & has pitched well in the AFL thus far. Has really good stuff & wouldn't be completely shocked if someone poached him...but think he's probably too far away & without elite enough stuff to truly worry about that happening. Should probably not add.

SP BVB (#52) - He's kind of a JAG. Got a bit better toward the end of the AAA season. May be able to provide MLB depth, & should be solid MiLB depth, but not really the type of guy you worry about protecting. Should not add.

SP PENROD (#54) - I will probably be moving Penrod up my list next time. Was signed from Independent ball a couple months ago & pitched well for Greenville, & has allowed 1 run in 8 innings in the AFL so far. He's also already 26 & has some really good stuff. Mixed feelings on adding.

RP Politi (#57) - He was taken by the Orioles last year before being returned. He's already 27 & did not have a great year in AAA. He might get taken, but I don't think he has the level of stuff that would make that a big concern. Should not add.

The only other players who really would have a chance of getting taken (unless I'm totally missing something), are also relievers, like Justin Hagenman (#59) & Ryan Zeferjahn (#72), & CJ Liu, who profiles better as a reliever (#84). But I don't think any of them are good enough or MLB ready enough to worry about protecting.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I made this post in the Minor League Forum about guys who might need to be added to the 40-man roster to prevent them from being drafted in the Rule 5 Draft, but figured it also belongs here if anyone wants to discuss and/or has different opinions:

Thanks for all of this good info. From what I've been reading, it seems that there's a similar 40-man/Rule 5 Draft Crunch coming up with a lot of teams. Jon Abbey pointed out (I think it was him) that more teams are storing more ML-quality players in AAA that need to be on the 40 man so there won't be the same poaching that there was in years past. For all the hand-wringing about Noah Song last season, the Phillies really tried but smartly finally returned him. The only guys I think could stick on other teams would be Winkelman and Perales and Drohan all as relief guys on bad teams

 

[JM3]

Eh. I mean Thad Ward was literally drafted & retained last year, & he's not nearly the prospect several of these guys are, & is extremely similar to Grant Gambrell.

It's not hard to stash a guy on a bad team & just acquire a free prospect in the process. Last year 15 guys were drafted, including 3 Red Sox.

We'll see how it goes. I would much rather protect our high ceiling prospects than use 40-man spots on fungible guys like Walter, Hamilton & Dalbec.

But you obviously can't load up too many guys who can't impact your Major League team or you really tie your hands. Will be interesting to see how it goes.

The deadline for adding players prior to the R5 draft is November 14th.

 

[jon abbey]

It's not hard to stash a guy on a bad team & just acquire a free prospect in the process. Last year 15 guys were drafted, including 3 Red Sox.

This is misleading, there were indeed 15 guys taken but only the first 6 plus a 33 year old injured reliever stuck with their teams, the other 8 were returned.

In general, people get way too excited about the rule 5 draft (including me) but it's very rare that it ends up mattering.

 

[JM3]

This is misleading, there were indeed 15 guys taken but only the first 6 plus a 33 year old injured reliever stuck with their teams, the other 8 were returned.

In general, people get way too excited about the rule 5 draft (including me) but it's very rare that it ends up mattering.

Well yeah, there aren't 15 teams who expect to be bad, but it was still disruptive to the season for guys like Song & to a lesser extent Politi. & the reason it's not worse is that teams protect their best people. It's still an interesting time as it relates to roster construction & there's a lot that goes into making the right choices.

 

[JM3]

MI Bonaci (#13) - Made it to AA, excellent defender. AFL was going to be interesting, but had to cut his stint short (if I had to wildly speculate, I think someone close to him passed away). Should probably add.

Seeing as how Bonaci is on "the list", protecting him no longer seems like a good option...

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1712216336510652560


Also, my wild speculation, which was wrong, was based on an Instagram post where he used the following emojis: gray heart, black heart, cross.

He made his Instagram private since yesterday.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Not protecting him feels like a no-brainer

 

[JM3]

Not protecting him feels like a no-brainer

It's pronounced Bry-ner, so I think "in a pickle" jokes are more apropos, but also potentially too close to home.