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We're halfway through the season

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by Rasputin, Jun 28, 2018.

  1. TFisNEXT

    TFisNEXT Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    The 2002 team was really damned good...it was a crime that they didn't make the playoffs. You had career-year Derek Lowe and still-close-to-peak Pedro at the top of the rotation plus a devastating middle of the lineup. It's kind of amazing how quick they fell out of it considering that Cliff Floyd tore the cover off the ball too after they traded for him.
     
  2. Number45forever

    Number45forever Member SoSH Member

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    1,914
    That chart just sent me looking back, again, at the offensive stats of the 2003 Sox. They were quite potent, what a fun team that was with Ortiz just exploding as the season wore on.
     
  3. The Red Industry

    The Red Industry lurker

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  4. joe dokes

    joe dokes Member SoSH Member

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    11,489
    Seattle won 93 and finished 3rd.
     
  5. AB in DC

    AB in DC OG Football Writing Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    I'm just worried that the Yankees will go all-in on Machado, deGrom, and a bunch of other pieces and basically close the Red Sox' window before it opens.
     
  6. jmcc5400

    jmcc5400 Member SoSH Member

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    The funny thing is that Cliff Floyd became an absolute SoSH whipping boy due to his lack of run production. It seemed antithetical to everything SoSH was about, but we were all deeply frustrated by that team. Plus Butch Hobson's Elbo Chips had convinced us to love Seung Song.
     
  7. BillMuellerFanClub

    BillMuellerFanClub Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    874
    It was quite the anomaly. He hit 316/374/561 in 47 games with 21 doubles and 7 home runs, but managed only 18 RBI. Not capitalizing on his acquisition at the deadline with a deep playoff run was heartbreaking for my 15 year old self.
     
  8. Rasputin

    Rasputin Will outlive SeanBerry Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    They can't keep us out of the playoffs and anything can happen in a short series.
     
  9. JimD

    JimD Member SoSH Member

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    I've resigned myself to the fact that there is nothing the Red Sox and their fans can do to deter the Yankees from cashing in a pile of chips for big acquisitions if that is what the Steinbrenner brothers decide to do. I just hope that they have to compete with multiple teams for those players and Cashman's Jedi mind tricks fail to work this time around.
     
  10. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    Exactly. There's little the Red Sox can do if the Yankees want to cash in their prospects for Machado or deGrom or Happ or whomever else. And it seems foolish and a little defeatist to worry about it. The Red Sox as currently constituted a damn good team. There's plenty of reason to be confident in their chances to win the division and be competitive in October regardless of what the Yankees do at the trade deadline.
     
  11. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    The Red Sox are now 3.5 games up. Granted, with two and a half months to go that's a thoroughly trivial lead, but it still seems unnecessarily defeatist--even for SoSH--to talk as if we're the ones looking for a window to open.
     
    #161 Savin Hillbilly, Jul 11, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2018
  12. bosockboy

    bosockboy Member SoSH Member

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    9,760
    We have a pretty great schedule the rest of the month. Yankees have 4 in Cleveland this weekend. Ideally we get this to 5-6 games before we meet them in August.
     
  13. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    1,165
    Warmly recalled this post after the Yankee meltdown last night. It's like you spun a hex.

    Our next series with the O's comes Monday, July 23. Decent chance they'll have traded Machado by then.
     
  14. Rasputin

    Rasputin Will outlive SeanBerry Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    29,120
    To the Yankees.
     
  15. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    1,165
    Even better.
     
  16. Rasputin

    Rasputin Will outlive SeanBerry Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    29,120
    How is that better?
     
  17. Sam Ray Not

    Sam Ray Not Member SoSH Member

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    35-33 gets us to 100 wins for the first time since 1946, and fourth time in franchise history (1912, 1915, 1946).

    Seems doable.
     
  18. uncannymanny

    uncannymanny Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    5,198
    We'll see when they start playing some good teams.
     
  19. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    When we still take the division.
     
  20. brandonchristensen

    brandonchristensen mad photochops SoSH Member

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    This seems like SUCH a jinx.
     
  21. Rasputin

    Rasputin Will outlive SeanBerry Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    He's not saying it's a done deal, just that it's not, well, you know, out of the question.

    Yeah...whatever advantage we have is paper thin. The Yankees could get Machado, the best starting pitcher on the market, and the best reliever on the market. I think they'd be foolish to do so, but it would be ridiculously hard to beat them if they did.
     
  22. Trotsky

    Trotsky Member SoSH Member

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    Even without those additions I believe there is still a nagging feeling that the Yankees are the superior team.... based on our record against them thus far. Toss in a starting pitcher upgrade and it gets frightening
     
  23. Sam Ray Not

    Sam Ray Not Member SoSH Member

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    Haha, as Rasputin notes, I wasn’t opining on our chances of getting there, just noting the modest task in front of us (by way of noting how historically impressive the team has been to date).

    Also, I’m not too exercised about 100 wins per se — though obviously avoiding the one-game play-in vs. Seattle (or Houston?) would be huge, and the way things are going we may need at least 108 or so to do that.

    Fwiw: on pace for 112 wins, knock wood, touch iron, etc.
     
  24. JimD

    JimD Member SoSH Member

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    Fangraphs and FiveThirtyEight now have the Sox at 61% to win the division, BP at 60%.
     
  25. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Local radio — RS + 36 for the first time in 40 years.
     
  26. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    How many times in Sox history have they been 36 games over .500? I believe the last time was 1978, 99-63 prior to the one game playoff.
     
  27. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

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    3,486
    The following teams finished the season X games above .500:
    1. 1912 58
    2. 1946 54
    3. 1915 51
    4. 1903 44
    5. 1949 38
    6. 1948 37
    7. 1904 36
    8. 1978 35 (after the playoff game loss)
    I couldn't tell you if any other teams got there during the season. (Edit: But I doubt it, scanning the posibilities.)
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/index.shtml
     
  28. Average Reds

    Average Reds Dope Staff Member Dope V&N Mod SoSH Member

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    Given the seemingly ridiculous cost they would have to pay for a rental, I've assumed that the Yankees aren't serious players for either Machado or deGrom. However, after thinking it through, I'm not so sure any more. More specifically, if we are to presume that the Sox window is closing and that the Yankees are at or near the beginning of theirs, it would be an interesting bit of war-gaming for them to attempt a kill shot this year.

    I still don't think it's the right play and I still don't expect it. But I can see the rationale.
     
  29. RGREELEY33

    RGREELEY33 Potty Mouth Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    The Red Sox are 32-19 against teams with .500 or better records this year.

    2-2 vs HOU
    4-5 vs NYY
    9-4 vs Tampa
    6-0 vs LAA
    4-3 vs SEA
    2-4 vs OAK
    2-1 vs ATL
    3-0 vs WSH

    Aside from not having played CLE and being 2-2 against HOU and 4-5 against the NYY, who are you waiting to see them play?

    Here is a nifty grid for the league:

    http://www.espn.com/mlb/standings/grid

    The Yankees have looked better overall against those teams, but it isn’t like the Red Sox have played lousy. The NYY against those same teams are 34-15:

    5-4 vs Red Sox
    3-0 vs CLE
    5-2 vs HOU
    5-1 vs LAA
    2-1 vs OAK
    3-0 vs SEA
    5-4 vs Tampa
    2-2 vs WSH
    2-1 vs PHI
    2-0 vs ATL

    So, the Yankees have a 3 game edge over “the good teams” and yet the Red Sox have a 3.5 game edge on the Yankees. If going 35-33 the rest of the way to win 100 games seems like a stretch — I am not sure what you have been watching.
     
  30. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Check the batteries in your sarcasm/Cafardo detector
     
  31. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    He's been reading the game threads, where this has been a running gag.
     
  32. uncannymanny

    uncannymanny Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Sorry @RGREELEY33, that was the riff during the early season win streak. Man, this team is fantastic and I didn’t know they are that historically good. It’s insane that we’re looking at the possibility of 69 wins and a > .700 record before the ASB. Pinch me!
     
  33. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    38,356
    I think the Machado price tag as a rental will be lower than expected, and if NY can get him without using Andujar, that frees up Andujar as the lead chip for SP help, which is what they really need.

    But also I want to push back a bit against the conventional wisdom on both sides that winning the division is utterly crucial. Obviously both teams would prefer to avoid the coin flip wild card game, but it will likely be a home game at least. Assuming the AL East team gets through that like NY did last year, I really think it is a crap shoot between all four teams (including HOU and CLE) and nothing between now and the end of the season is going to change that too much. Last year NY went 6-6 in the postseason against CLE and HOU after winning the wild card game, and I think the four teams are similarly balanced this year. It's far from ideal to have to win a wild card game and then have to go to HOU (if they end up as the #1 seeds), but the 'easiest' possible road is a 5 game series against CLE and Kluber, so not exactly easy.
     
  34. Sam Ray Not

    Sam Ray Not Member SoSH Member

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    4,652
    Pretty safe to say that if this team does close 35-33, this will be the crankiest 100-win fanbase in MLB history.
     
  35. RGREELEY33

    RGREELEY33 Potty Mouth Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    3,481
    Sorry, haven’t been in many game threads this year, didn’t pick up on the sarcasm. Was still a fun exercise for me to undertake while on the can though — so thanks for that!

    This has been a lot of fun to watch — likely to be the best regular season in our lifetimes — and yet we’ll be staring down HOU and NYY in the playoffs. Gonna be a fun September/October!
     
  36. Sam Ray Not

    Sam Ray Not Member SoSH Member

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    4,652
    I guess it depends on your definition of “utterly crucial,” but you don’t dread the idea of a single game in which the best case is burning Severino for four days and starting the ALDS with Sabathia (?), and the alternative is James Paxton ending your season?

    Edit: of course, if it’s a photo-finish for the division, you may not even be able to line up Severino (or Sale in our case) for the play-in game, which I suppose could be worse or better.
     
  37. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    2001 Mariners
     
  38. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

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    3,486
    With, at best, a 65% chance of the best case and a 35% chance of the worst case.
     
  39. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    32,373
    It was good info you collected
     
  40. Average Reds

    Average Reds Dope Staff Member Dope V&N Mod SoSH Member

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    23,268
    Forget who said it, but basically someone (a relatively new lurker, I believe) made what I and others perceived as a serious comment that they'd rather be .500 against good teams than 16-2 (or whatever the record was at that time) against bad teams, because beating up on bad teams shows us nothing about how good they actually are.

    And yes, I've been making the same joke all year because that was epic.
     
  41. Average Reds

    Average Reds Dope Staff Member Dope V&N Mod SoSH Member

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    That's what we get for playing only bad teams all year.
     
  42. uncannymanny

    uncannymanny Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    It was good info! I’m sure no one is upset about seeing how good they’ve been laid out

    Yup, that was the discussion, and unless there’s some inexplicable long con, it was serious. Wasn’t it soxeast?
     
  43. Average Reds

    Average Reds Dope Staff Member Dope V&N Mod SoSH Member

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    If the Yankees can get him without giving up Adjujar, they'll probably do it. I can't imagine that Baltimore would do that, but it's Baltimore, so who knows.

    A one game playoff between winning teams is essentially a crapshoot. So while I agree that once you get through that there's little difference (other that rotation setup, which may or may not be significant) avoiding that one game would seem to be a very significant advantage.
     
    #193 Average Reds, Jul 12, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2018
  44. Sam Ray Not

    Sam Ray Not Member SoSH Member

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    4,652
    Hah, I was waiting for that. I meant exclusive of the playoffs — MLB history is of course littered with 100-win teams who didn’t close the deal. Indeed, of the 27 teams since the ‘86 Mets who have won 100 games, only four of them have won it all (‘98 and ‘09 MFY, ‘16 Cubs, ‘17 Astros).
     
  45. Al Zarilla

    Al Zarilla Member SoSH Member

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    46,996
    Can we nix the comparisons to 1978, please. In the pre-internet age of 1978, I was actually buying Baseball Magazine type mags to get all I could about the season, living in CA, with no Globe (or Herald) to read. Then it all started to go bad in late August. Even Eck couldn’t stop the bleeding, all the way down to the BFD game. Why make comps to a season that ended in a slow death?
     
  46. Adrian's Dome

    Adrian's Dome Member SoSH Member

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    4,188
    That is entirely and 100% only David Price's fault.

    By most measures (including differential,) the Sox are slightly better.
     
  47. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

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    3,486
  48. Adrian's Dome

    Adrian's Dome Member SoSH Member

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    4,188
  49. AB in DC

    AB in DC OG Football Writing Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    4,994
    Plus the foregone opportunity of potentially playing the ALDS against a 90-win Indians team (with its dumpster fire of a bullpen) rather than a 100+ win team.
     
  50. uncannymanny

    uncannymanny Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    5,198
    Yeah, how are those sites’ preseason projections doing?
     

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