It decreases, ever so slightly, by the day IMO, because his MVP season looks more and more like an outlier. His 2018 was other-worldly; his 2016 was very good; his 2015 and 2017 were pretty good; his 2019 has been lousy so far. He hasn't been close to the consistently great player Trout is. I love the guy but I wouldn't pay him Trout money.
Betts has always been tremendous.
Age 21: 213 PA, .291/.368/.444/.812, 126 ops+, 2.3 bWAR
Age 22: 654 PA, .291/.341/.479/.820, 117 ops+, 5.9 bWAR, MVP-19
Age 23: 672 PA, .318/.363/.534/.897, 133 ops+, 9.7 bWAR, MVP-2, GG, SS
Age 24: 712 PA, .264/.344/.459/.803, 108 ops+, 6.4 bWAR, MVP-6, GG
Age 25: 614 PA, .346/.438/.640/1.078, 188 ops+, 10.9 bWAR, MVP-1, GG, SS
His age 21 season was outstanding in limited time. Already at that point he was worth north of $12 million per year. His age 22 season was terrific as well. Top 20 player in the league, 5.9 WAR, pretty awesome for a 22-year old. His age 23 season was out of this world. 9.7 WAR, 2nd in the MVP, prodigious numbers. Age 24 he dropped off but that was mostly bad luck. His LD rate compared to age 23 and age 25 seasons:
- Age 23: 25%
- Age 24: 25%
- Age 25: 26%
His GB/FB ratio, those three seasons:
- Age 23: .72
- Age 24: .69
- Age 25: .52
So he was putting the ball in the air just about as much as his age 23 season, and more than his MVP age 25 season. He was hitting line drives at the same rate. His strikeout percentage was the same as at age 23 (11.0% age 23, 11.1% age 24, 14.8% age 25!). What was killing him was his BABIP.
- Age 23: .322
- Age 24: .268
- Age 25: .368
Obviously his age 25 number is extreme. But his career BABIP is .312, and so in 2017 (age 24), he hit the ball just as much, put the ball in play just as much, hit as high a percentage of line drives, put more balls in the air, and yet his numbers suffered (yet were still solid). All because he hit a TON of balls right at people, so the BABIP was down. His average exit velocities those three seasons:
- Age 23: 89.7
- Age 24: 88.4
- Age 25: 92.2
His "hard hit %" during these three seasons:
- Age 23: 39.6%
- Age 24: 37.9%
- Age 25: 50.2%
Again, age 25 season was exceptional. Nobody is saying he will repeat THAT year, but more and more, when you look into the numbers, it's his age 24 season (2017) that is clearly the outlier, and mainly because of bad luck, since these other numbers are pretty consistent with his excellent 2016 (age 23) season, and even not far off in some ways from his MVP 2018 season.