There have been some good posts buried in other threads about the state of the farm as well as major league assets, but I'd like this thread to be focused more on their worth as it pertains to when and if to buy and sell.
This won't be much fun for those who hate the trade simulator site, but if you want to play the game, have at it. If you don't like the premise, no need to apply.
First I'll run down the Sox' true assets according to baseballtradevalues.com, in terms of median surplus value in dollars. I'm including both major and minor leaguers with at least 20 million in surplus value.
Marcelo Mayer (65 million). Far and away the biggest asset in the system. Examples of what he could get on one for ones on his own, and then some: Ohtani, Gausman, Michael Harris II, William Contreras (Brewers version), Lars Nootbar, Will Smith, Luis Castillo, Jazz Chisholm, Kelbert Ruiz, Cedric Mullins, Lance Painter, Brandon Lowe. Tangentially, he's someone I would have moved for Sean Murphy if I thought there were a decent chance he'd be signed, but the Braves seemed laser focused on him, traded Contreras+ for him and could have won any bidding war anyhow. I wouldn't move him for anyone else on that list though would consider Contreras if he were hypothetically available since the position is a shit show. These are the types of deals great farm systems like the Dodgers can keep churning out as they remain contenders year after year.
Jarren Duran (42 mill). Already mentioned in his thread.
Bryan Bello (34.4) I've been checking after each start, and he is noticeably increasing in value. He is valued a bit more than 3.5 seasons of Patrick Sandoval, but will/should never be moved in a million years.
Garrett Whitlock (32.2) Injury history and risk are not factored in. Worth Alejandro Kirk.
Triston Casas (28.3) This is projecting 5.5 years of control as a below average major leaguer. That value should go way up as he improves. Worth Nestor Cortes @jon abbey ?
Alex Verdugo (27.1) This is 1.5 years left at roughly 4-5 fWAR when also factoring in salary. Worth Nick Yorke and John Schreiber together. I would definitely ponder getting back a controllable reliever and a 75th ranked top 100 guy.
Cedanne Rafaela (25.3) Projects to about an average fWAR of 1.5 over 6 years. This seems reasonable because of his floor. I don't think he would get anything premium in return, maybe just someone with a few years of control. Seems foolish to move him this deadline under any circumstance because his value could be way higher.
Bleis (24.3) If he were still progressing as expected, my guess would be he's between Casas and Whitlock.
Yoshida (22.2) Seems like good though not amazing surplus value since he is well paid, anchored and possibly at or close to his peak with 4.5 years remaining. There are very few comps for guys on free agent deals similar to him. In terms of a one for one, CJ Abrams is close.
Kutter Crawford - (20.3) Crawford is not someone who gets mentioned as someone to trade, because of the Sox injuries and lack of cheap talented major league pitching, but his value to a small market team is very high.
Other guys approaching 20+ are Tanner Houck (18.9) and Nick Yorke (18.8). Roman Anthony is only at 11, but he could potentially move closer to Yorke by the end of the season.
This won't be much fun for those who hate the trade simulator site, but if you want to play the game, have at it. If you don't like the premise, no need to apply.
First I'll run down the Sox' true assets according to baseballtradevalues.com, in terms of median surplus value in dollars. I'm including both major and minor leaguers with at least 20 million in surplus value.
Marcelo Mayer (65 million). Far and away the biggest asset in the system. Examples of what he could get on one for ones on his own, and then some: Ohtani, Gausman, Michael Harris II, William Contreras (Brewers version), Lars Nootbar, Will Smith, Luis Castillo, Jazz Chisholm, Kelbert Ruiz, Cedric Mullins, Lance Painter, Brandon Lowe. Tangentially, he's someone I would have moved for Sean Murphy if I thought there were a decent chance he'd be signed, but the Braves seemed laser focused on him, traded Contreras+ for him and could have won any bidding war anyhow. I wouldn't move him for anyone else on that list though would consider Contreras if he were hypothetically available since the position is a shit show. These are the types of deals great farm systems like the Dodgers can keep churning out as they remain contenders year after year.
Jarren Duran (42 mill). Already mentioned in his thread.
Bryan Bello (34.4) I've been checking after each start, and he is noticeably increasing in value. He is valued a bit more than 3.5 seasons of Patrick Sandoval, but will/should never be moved in a million years.
Garrett Whitlock (32.2) Injury history and risk are not factored in. Worth Alejandro Kirk.
Triston Casas (28.3) This is projecting 5.5 years of control as a below average major leaguer. That value should go way up as he improves. Worth Nestor Cortes @jon abbey ?
Alex Verdugo (27.1) This is 1.5 years left at roughly 4-5 fWAR when also factoring in salary. Worth Nick Yorke and John Schreiber together. I would definitely ponder getting back a controllable reliever and a 75th ranked top 100 guy.
Cedanne Rafaela (25.3) Projects to about an average fWAR of 1.5 over 6 years. This seems reasonable because of his floor. I don't think he would get anything premium in return, maybe just someone with a few years of control. Seems foolish to move him this deadline under any circumstance because his value could be way higher.
Bleis (24.3) If he were still progressing as expected, my guess would be he's between Casas and Whitlock.
Yoshida (22.2) Seems like good though not amazing surplus value since he is well paid, anchored and possibly at or close to his peak with 4.5 years remaining. There are very few comps for guys on free agent deals similar to him. In terms of a one for one, CJ Abrams is close.
Kutter Crawford - (20.3) Crawford is not someone who gets mentioned as someone to trade, because of the Sox injuries and lack of cheap talented major league pitching, but his value to a small market team is very high.
Other guys approaching 20+ are Tanner Houck (18.9) and Nick Yorke (18.8). Roman Anthony is only at 11, but he could potentially move closer to Yorke by the end of the season.
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