Valuing the assets, where do the Sox stand?

jon abbey · Jul 11, 2023

grimshaw said:
Triston Casas (28.3) This is projecting 5.5 years of control as a below average major leaguer. That value should go way up as he improves. Worth Nestor Cortes @jon abbey ?

I mean, the way to play this game is in a vacuum, who is worth more if they are the first player in your expansion team organization, where we have no knowledge of the actual depth charts of each team.

To make your query more realistic (and to be clear, I am not proposing this deal so no need for anyone to rebut and I am not checking BTV numbers), something like Casas and Whitlock or Houck for Cortes plus Rizzo plus a pitching prospect, maybe Beeter or Will Warren or Gomez or Gil (back soon), or maybe a third team is involved. Again I'm not saying that makes sense, just that NY isn't going to trade for Casas with Rizzo (and Stanton) still there.

I do think NY would and probably will trade pitching at the deadline, they moved something like nine pitchers last deadline so they wouldn't get raided again in the rule 5 draft, even including Montgomery out of their then rotation, and both Vasquez and Brito have shown a lot of promise in their limited chances thus far (like JP Sears last year).

It would be funny for them to send Nestor to BOS after he talked shit about them (stupidly, WTF Nestor) earlier this season (and then got stomped 5 out of 6, again well done Nestor), but of course there aren't going to be any trades of consequence between BOS and NYY. Ottavino and a prospect as a money dump for one season is about as impactful as we'll ever get there, I guess.

(I don't think I would trade too much for Casas right now in a vacuum, but I value 1B defense more than most people)

JM3 · Jul 11, 2023

I like the thread...& I like the concept of BTV. I disagree with most of their #s, but that's ok.

Y Kant Jody Reed · Jul 12, 2023

Kutter Crawford - (20.3) Crawford is not someone who gets mentioned as someone to trade, because of the Sox injuries and lack of cheap talented major league pitching, but his value to a small market team is very high.

In general I think we tend to underestimate the potential of currently rostered MLBers as trade chips. Young, proven-ish talent is valuable; someone like Crawford (or Houck/Whitlock, or for that matter Duran/Verdugo) is particularly a valuable return for a GM who wants to sell off a marquee player without alienating his fanbase, because the acquired player’s floor is more or less established and his contributions to the big league club are more or less immediate. In particular, pre-arb MLBers are helpful in acquiring talent from teams who are pushing their window back, but not fully tanking. If the Angels are resigned to losing Ohtani but not Trout, for instance, they might rather have Kutter Crawford and a prospect than Patrick Sandoval.

That’s Ed, this is more of a consideration for the offseason, when trade values aren’t skewed by standings, and the Red Sox have more time and flexibility to patch holes in their roster opened up by trades (it’d be tough to trade someone like Crawford or Verdugo during a pennant race and do better than tread water). And additionally, in regards to Crawford in particular since he was my example, I don’t see a lot of cheap quality reinforcements in the upper minors who could replace one of our pre-arb pitchers (our outfielders, though…)

OilcanDroid · Jul 12, 2023

grimshaw said:
Triston Casas (28.3) This is projecting 5.5 years of control as a below average major leaguer. That value should go way up as he improves. Worth Nestor Cortes

I realize you may not be actually proposing this move, but I wouldn't trade a tub of ball mud for Nestor Cortes. Even if Casas turns out to be a platoon guy, he's worth more than an ironic mustache that spits cutters as a party trick.

nvalvo · Jul 12, 2023

Uhh, I just read on twitter that BP is now ranking Roman Anthony #9 in baseball, a slot ahead of Mayer.

scottyno · Jul 12, 2023

nvalvo said:
Uhh, I just read on twitter that BP is now ranking Roman Anthony #9 in baseball, a slot ahead of Mayer.

Can't believe Bloom fucked up and blew the Fabian signing for this

nvalvo · Jul 12, 2023

I knew the farm was having a great year, but that’s madness.

scottyno · Jul 12, 2023

nvalvo said:
I knew the farm was having a great year, but that’s madness.

It seems like a very aggressive rating by BP, but his advanced metrics are pretty ridiculous for a guy who just turned 19

View: https://twitter.com/IanCundall/status/1677818102883528704/photo/1

pjheff · Jul 12, 2023

nvalvo said:
Uhh, I just read on twitter that BP is now ranking Roman Anthony #9 in baseball, a slot ahead of Mayer.

Are you (or the writer of the tweet) sure it’s #9 in baseball and not #9 in the system?

scottyno · Jul 12, 2023

pjheff said:
Are you (or the writer of the tweet) sure it’s #9 in baseball and not #9 in the system?

A BP guy confirmed on twitter it's overall
View: https://twitter.com/jaseidler/status/1679199880353390592

pjheff · Jul 12, 2023

scottyno said:
A BP guy confirmed on twitter it's overall

Thanks for confirming. I knew that BA ranked him #9 in the system a couple of months back.

nvalvo · Jul 12, 2023

Well, this development poses the front office an interesting choice.

Not that other teams' assessments of Anthony are based on publications like BP -- they aren't -- but they are likely to be based on the kinds of metrics that led BP to put Anthony at that level.

Anthony is 19, and just was promoted a couple months ago from A to high-A despite a lackluster OBP-heavy line because the team seemed to be concerned that he was just walking, and not really developing as a hitter. Then at high A, he proceeded to post a .362/.486/.845 line as one of the youngest players in the league.

Back in 2019, Julio Rodriguez was about 6 months younger than Anthony at the same levels. He was promoted to high-A midway through the second half of the season, and in the last few weeks crushed high A for a 1.200ish OPS.

If Roman Anthony actually is Julio Rodriguez, we should probably keep him and see where this goes. But if he just looks a fair amount like Julio Rodriguez in his A ball stat lines, maybe the right move is to try to deal him for a controllable front of the rotation SP.

I'd hate to have to make that call.

JM3 · Jul 12, 2023

@Mantush posted these excerpts in the Minor League thread:

9. Roman Anthony, OF, Boston Red Sox

Why he’ll succeed:

Click to expand...

If it weren’t for Junior Caminero, Anthony would be considered the biggest breakout prospect of 2023. That got hidden for a bit having to hit in the cavernous Salem Memorial, but Anthony does a lot of the same things well as Jackson Holliday despite going 79th overall last summer (although he got paid like a first rounder). He doesn’t chase, he makes oodles of contact in the zone, and that contact is hard and in the air. It just looks right on the field, too. Anthony clears his hips and drops the barrel on anything in the zone, and while he isn’t consistently getting the ball in the air yet, once he does, he’ll be in the top five if not higher.

Why he might fail: Anthony was a second-round prep pick who has done this for about three months. He hasn’t done it in the upper minors yet, and he might slide over to a corner if he fills out and slows down in his 20s. His bat-to-ball is ahead of his swing plane and physical strength at the moment. He’s also 19, and these qualms are mostly nitpicking in the middle of a huge breakout.

10. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Boston Red Sox

Why he’ll succeed:

Click to expand...

On the field, Mayer does everything well enough, and when one of those baseball things is “play shortstop” you’ve got one of the top prospects in baseball. There isn’t a slam dunk plus-plus grade on the scouting sheet here, a little unusual for a top-10 prospect, but Mayer has the kind of optimized swing path with enough pull-side pop to regularly top 20 home runs. That makes for a nice everyday player at the six.

Why he might fail: That optimized swing is paired with a bit of an aggressive approach. That was fine in the low minors, but Double-A arms have begun to exploit a vulnerability to breaking balls at the bottom of the zone. He needs to tamp down that tendency to chase in the upper minors to really tap into the .270 average, 25-plus home run upside here. He’s also not a lock to stick at short, as his arm might play a bit better on the other side of the infield. But even if he doesn’t hit his OFP, lefty Chris Taylor is cooler than righty Chris Taylor.

39. Nick Yorke, 2B, Boston Red Sox

Why he’ll succeed:

Click to expand...

After a down 2022 season, a revamped setup and swing has allowed Yorke to sting the ball a bit more consistently, leading to an improved overall line. It’s a quirky one, starting with his hands high and his bat pointed down at the ground behind him, but it seems to work for him. While he’s sacrificed some barrel control and contact ability, he can rip pitches to the pull side or drive them into the opposite gap for extra bases. He remains a very good second baseman capable of the plus play. Yeah, that’s not a shortstop, but it’s valuable.

Why he might fail: We do worry that Yorke might have sacrificed a bit too much barrel control and contact ability. The two-stage setup and elevated swing plane does leave him vulnerable down and away, and he doesn’t have obvious hard six pop even with the new swing. While York doesn’t have to hit .300, an above-average hit tool is still a must with his profile, and his zone control and overall swing-and-miss have been trending in the wrong direction the last month or two.

& noted that Rafaela was #54.

Not sure why the formatting came out this way, even when I deleted the extraneous quotes, but it is what it is.

DavidTai · Jul 12, 2023

scottyno said:
Can't believe Bloom fucked up and blew the Fabian signing for this

Think it was the compensation pick for E-Rod that Roman Anthony was taken with, but he might have gotten taken with the Fabian pick instead if they didn't have that, so who knows.

JM3 · Jul 12, 2023

Yeah, Cutter Coffey was the replacement pick for Fabian (pick #41). They lost #61 when they signed Story. & as mentioned, Roman Anthony was drafted #79 with the comp pick for losing E-Rod.

Mantush · Jul 13, 2023

The comp pick they received for Fabian did also give them extra bonus pool money to give to Roman Anthony. They went under slot with their first two picks that year and gave him the largest signing bonus in their class. There were obviously other under slot deals but the extra bonus pool money surely played a role in selecting him, given his demands and eventual signing bonus, with that pick.

BaseballJones · Jul 13, 2023

nvalvo said:
Well, this development poses the front office an interesting choice.

Not that other teams' assessments of Anthony are based on publications like BP -- they aren't -- but they are likely to be based on the kinds of metrics that led BP to put Anthony at that level.

Anthony is 19, and just was promoted a couple months ago from A to high-A despite a lackluster OBP-heavy line because the team seemed to be concerned that he was just walking, and not really developing as a hitter. Then at high A, he proceeded to post a .362/.486/.845 line as one of the youngest players in the league.

Back in 2019, Julio Rodriguez was about 6 months younger than Anthony at the same levels. He was promoted to high-A midway through the second half of the season, and in the last few weeks crushed high A for a 1.200ish OPS.

If Roman Anthony actually is Julio Rodriguez, we should probably keep him and see where this goes. But if he just looks a fair amount like Julio Rodriguez in his A ball stat lines, maybe the right move is to try to deal him for a controllable front of the rotation SP.

I'd hate to have to make that call.

I’d love to be the one making that call. It would mean that I’m the GM or president of baseball ops for the Boston Red Sox!

But it’s such a good thing that Anthony is exploding like this. It’s exciting having a lot of extraordinary young talent in the system.

chrisfont9 · Jul 13, 2023

BaseballJones said:
I’d love to be the one making that call. It would mean that I’m the GM or president of baseball ops for the Boston Red Sox!

But it’s such a good thing that Anthony is exploding like this. It’s exciting having a lot of extraordinary young talent in the system.

Bad day for the "fire Chaim" malarkey. We don't exactly know what they hired him to do, but seems likely that revamping the young talent was a big part of it. I can't recall so many prospects rising like this, not in this organization. I don't see revamped team rankings (and don't have a BP account) but three of the top 50 plus their overall depth must have them moving up the team charts.

Jimbodandy · Jul 13, 2023

But for some back stiffness this spring, we would probably be talking about Mikey Romero a lot right now too.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Jul 13, 2023

chrisfont9 said:
Bad day for the "fire Chaim" malarkey. We don't exactly know what they hired him to do, but seems likely that revamping the young talent was a big part of it. I can't recall so many prospects rising like this, not in this organization. I don't see revamped team rankings (and don't have a BP account) but three of the top 50 plus their overall depth must have them moving up the team charts.

Probably have to go back to the 2016 and 2017 for something better.

Ending the 2015 season, going into 2016 rankings (going BA, MLB, BP)

Moncada was 3, 7 and 7 - averaged to 6th.
Devers was 18, 17 and 35 - averaged to 23rd.
Benintendi was 15, 25 and 46 - averaged to 29th.
Margot was 56, 46 and 14 - averaged to 39th.
Kopech was 89, 16 and 98 - averaged to 67th.

Prospects produced by the farm system had 4 players averaged out to the top 40 and 5 averaged out to the top 75. In the 2015-16 off season Margot was traded for Kimbrel.

Ending the 2016 season heading into 2017 rankings were

Benintendi was 1, 1 and 3 - averaged out to 2nd.
Moncada was 2, 2 and 5 - averaged out to 3rd.
Devers was 18, 17 and 13 - averaged out to 16th.
Kopech was 32, 10 and 36 - averaged out to 26th.
Groome was 43rd, 41 and 29 - averaged out to 38th.

Prospects produced by the farm system had 5 in the top 40, on average. In the 2016-17 off season Moncada and Kopech were traded for Sale.

Obviously we don't know where everyone will be ranked from the farm system ending this year going into next year as of yet. Though for better or worse, I feel pretty confident none of the top 5 prospects will be traded. TBD if that is a good or a bad thing, of course.

BringBackMo · Jul 13, 2023

nvalvo said:
Well, this development poses the front office an interesting choice.

Not that other teams' assessments of Anthony are based on publications like BP -- they aren't -- but they are likely to be based on the kinds of metrics that led BP to put Anthony at that level.

Anthony is 19, and just was promoted a couple months ago from A to high-A despite a lackluster OBP-heavy line because the team seemed to be concerned that he was just walking, and not really developing as a hitter. Then at high A, he proceeded to post a .362/.486/.845 line as one of the youngest players in the league.

Back in 2019, Julio Rodriguez was about 6 months younger than Anthony at the same levels. He was promoted to high-A midway through the second half of the season, and in the last few weeks crushed high A for a 1.200ish OPS.

If Roman Anthony actually is Julio Rodriguez, we should probably keep him and see where this goes. But if he just looks a fair amount like Julio Rodriguez in his A ball stat lines, maybe the right move is to try to deal him for a controllable front of the rotation SP.

I'd hate to have to make that call.

The rest of baseball may be catching up on Anthony but it’s pretty clear the Red Sox were banking on this kind of potential when they signed him to an above-slot deal last year and promoted him to Greenville this season, making him the youngest player in the league by half a year or so, despite the ho-hum stat line in Salem that you mentioned. I’m confident they have a very developed sense of what they have on their hands and have zero intention of trading him to anyone. Then again, I think it’s very unlikely that the Sox trade any of their best prospects over the next two seasons regardless of how the big league team is doing. Growing the system is the strategy and I think there’s little chance they veer from it.

chawson · Jul 13, 2023

grimshaw said:
There have been some good posts buried in other threads about the state of the farm as well as major league assets, but I'd like this thread to be focused more on their worth as it pertains to when and if to buy and sell.

This won't be much fun for those who hate the trade simulator site, but if you want to play the game, have at it. If you don't like the premise, no need to apply.

First I'll run down the Sox' true assets according to baseballtradevalues.com, in terms of median surplus value in dollars. I'm including both major and minor leaguers with at least 20 million in surplus value.

Marcelo Mayer (65 million). Far and away the biggest asset in the system. Examples of what he could get on one for ones on his own, and then some: Ohtani, Gausman, Michael Harris II, William Contreras (Brewers version), Lars Nootbar, Will Smith, Luis Castillo, Jazz Chisholm, Kelbert Ruiz, Cedric Mullins, Lance Painter, Brandon Lowe. Tangentially, he's someone I would have moved for Sean Murphy if I thought there were a decent chance he'd be signed, but the Braves seemed laser focused on him, traded Contreras+ for him and could have won any bidding war anyhow. I wouldn't move him for anyone else on that list though would consider Contreras if he were hypothetically available since the position is a shit show. These are the types of deals great farm systems like the Dodgers can keep churning out as they remain contenders year after year.

Jarren Duran (42 mill). Already mentioned in his thread.

Bryan Bello (34.4) I've been checking after each start, and he is noticeably increasing in value. He is valued a bit more than 3.5 seasons of Patrick Sandoval, but will/should never be moved in a million years.

Garrett Whitlock (32.2) Injury history and risk are not factored in. Worth Alejandro Kirk.

Triston Casas (28.3) This is projecting 5.5 years of control as a below average major leaguer. That value should go way up as he improves. Worth Nestor Cortes @jon abbey ?

Alex Verdugo (27.1) This is 1.5 years left at roughly 4-5 fWAR when also factoring in salary. Worth Nick Yorke and John Schreiber together. I would definitely ponder getting back a controllable reliever and a 75th ranked top 100 guy.

Cedanne Rafaela (25.3) Projects to about an average fWAR of 1.5 over 6 years. This seems reasonable because of his floor. I don't think he would get anything premium in return, maybe just someone with a few years of control. Seems foolish to move him this deadline under any circumstance because his value could be way higher.

Bleis (24.3) If he were still progressing as expected, my guess would be he's between Casas and Whitlock.

Yoshida (22.2) Seems like good though not amazing surplus value since he is well paid, anchored and possibly at or close to his peak with 4.5 years remaining. There are very few comps for guys on free agent deals similar to him. In terms of a one for one, CJ Abrams is close.

Kutter Crawford - (20.3) Crawford is not someone who gets mentioned as someone to trade, because of the Sox injuries and lack of cheap talented major league pitching, but his value to a small market team is very high.

Other guys approaching 20+ are Tanner Houck (18.9) and Nick Yorke (18.8). Roman Anthony is only at 11, but he could potentially move closer to Yorke by the end of the season.

Good stuff here, thanks for doing it.

One thing I wonder is whether a guy like Crawford has as much value to other teams as he does for us. There's got to be some sort of developmental process he undertook with us to catapult him from a minor league JAG to a swingman/#4 starter (with evidently plus-plus stuff). Do other teams shy away from guys like that?

Beyond that, I still think the Verdugo/Duran/Rafaela in CF/RF issue is the biggest tension spot. I get the rationale for letting it solve itself, and given the potential for clubhouse disruption (if any) that may be best. But I really wonder if what's best for the team is to trade one of them now, while all are at peak value.

What's especially interesting is if we'd be able to add Bleis and Anthony as top flight OF prospects to that mix by 2026. I don't even know how to construct a possible lineup for 2026-27, but the (incomplete) depth chart as it stands is compelling.

C - Teel, Wong, Hickey, Scott, Garcia (ETA '27), Lira
1B - Casas, Jordan, (and don't forget about Alex ".422 wOBA since June 1" Binelas)
2B - Story (FA '27), Yorke, Valdez, Hamilton, Meidroth, Bonaci, Cespedes
3B - Devers, Meidroth, Lugo
SS - Mayer, Romero, Paulino, Coffey, Alcantara ('27), Zanetello ('27), Anderson ('27)
LF - Yoshida (FA '28), Duran, Rosier
CF - Duran, Rafaela
RF - Bleis, Anthony, Abreu
DH - Yoshida, Jordan, Kavadas

Philip Jeff Frye · Jul 13, 2023

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
Ending the 2016 season heading into 2017 rankings were

Benintendi was 1, 1 and 3 - averaged out to 2nd.
Moncada was 2, 2 and 5 - averaged out to 3rd.
Devers was 18, 17 and 13 - averaged out to 16th.
Kopech was 32, 10 and 36 - averaged out to 26th.
Groome was 43rd, 41 and 29 - averaged out to 38th.

I see this and think "whoa, let's calm down a bit about all our prospects." It's great that we have them and that they seem to be climbing the charts lately, but its still a long way from here to Cooperstown. Benintendi has had a decent career, but he's not a superstar, and Moncada, outside of one really good year, has been a bit of a disappointment, hasn't he? Would people be pleased if Mayer's career ended up looking like Benintendi's?

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Jul 13, 2023

To your point, @Philip Jeff Frye , I've continued to go down the rabbit-hole of looking up past Sox prospect rankings.

The 2013 and 2014 window was also very highly rated.

Before the 2013 season it was:

Bogaerts was 8, 20 and 12 - averaged 13th
Bradley Jr was 31, 32 and 27 - averaged 30th
Barnes was 40, 38 and 38 - averaged 39th
Allen Webster was 49, 71 and 69 - averaged 63rd

So there were 4 players produced by the farm in the top 65, on average.

Pre 2014 looked even better - at least from a depth standpoint:

Bogaerts was 2, 2 and 2 - averaged 2nd
Bradley was 50, 33 and 23 - averaged 35th
Henry Owens was 40, 30 and 69 - averaged 46th
Cecchini was 74, 57 and 71 - averaged 61st
Swihart was 73, 61 and 73 - averaged 69th
Betts was 75, 62 and 101* - averaged 79th.

6 players in the top 80 prospects in the game. (*Betts actually wasn't ever ranked by baseball prospectus - at least not in a pre-season ranking - but rather than saying they have no idea, I'm saying he was the first honorable mention and calling him 101st.)

So again, while we obviously don't know what things will look like at the end of the year, you'd have to go back to the end of the 2016, 2015, 2013 and 2012 seasons to find more impressive farm system rankings for the Red Sox.

To be clear, none of this is to say "LETS TRADE MARCELO MAYER FOR TWO MONTHS OF LUCAS GIOLITO! GO RED SOX"; it's just that I do think this would be a decent time for Bloom and company to do some real deep dives on their own prospects and see if they can't take a couple of them and find a deal like Toronto made for Berrios back in 2021 (or dare I say Cherington and Hoyer for Beckett and Lowell in the 2015 off-season or that DDski made for Chris Sale) to address the biggest pressing flaw on the 2024 and beyond team, at least in my opinion- which is a pitcher projected to head the rotation with Bello.

Obviously Toronto didn't give up pieces from it's MLB roster in this deal. However they gave up (at least from MLB.com; because that is easiest to find) Austin Martin (2) and Simeon Woods Richardson (4) to get Berrios. They held on to Pearson (1), Groshans (3), Kirk (5), OMartinez (6), Manoah (7) and Moreno (8).

My personal favorite target would be Dylan Cease and just as an example of "fake trades that won't happen" BTV gives an almost exactly fair grade to Cease to Boston; Yorke, Bleis and Walter to ChW. It also works out if ChW prefers Drohan to Walter (and I'd guess they would). BTV would also have it clear with Crawford instead of Yorke, but I'd have to assume ChW would prefer Yorke.

But I'd feel pretty good about the rest of 2023 (and I'd feel even better about it for 2024-2030) with

Yoshida - L
Verdugo (extended) - R
Devers - L
Turner - R (this year)
Casas - L
Story - R (August?)
Duran - L
Wong - R
Reyes / Chang - R

Cease
Bello
Paxton (this year)
Houck (August?)
Crawford (if he's still here)

Pivetta in there as a "bulk" pitcher.

Whitlock in the 'pen the rest of this year and re-evaluate in the off-season.

Assuming it would take Bleis (2), Yorke (5) and Drohan (6) Would still leave a system of Mayer (1) , Rafaela (3), Anthony (4), Perales (7) and I'll actually bet Keel would probably be more like (5 or 6) when he gets ranked.

BringBackMo · Jul 13, 2023

Philip Jeff Frye said:
I see this and think "whoa, let's calm down a bit about all our prospects." It's great that we have them and that they seem to be climbing the charts lately, but its still a long way from here to Cooperstown. Benintendi has had a decent career, but he's not a superstar, and Moncada, outside of one really good year, has been a bit of a disappointment, hasn't he? Would people be pleased if Mayer's career ended up looking like Benintendi's?

When I look at that list, I am reminded that the Sox top prospects from that year produced an all-star slugger, the trading chits for an ace who helped us win a World Series, a league average-ish everyday outfielder, and a washout. Yes, I’d be very excited if this small group of prospects—which is only the most advanced in our system and does not include any of the exciting players in the lower levels of the system nor any of those who are rookies on the mlb team—produced a similar result.

moondog80 · Jul 13, 2023

Philip Jeff Frye said:
I see this and think "whoa, let's calm down a bit about all our prospects." It's great that we have them and that they seem to be climbing the charts lately, but its still a long way from here to Cooperstown. Benintendi has had a decent career, but he's not a superstar, and Moncada, outside of one really good year, has been a bit of a disappointment, hasn't he? Would people be pleased if Mayer's career ended up looking like Benintendi's?

Your point is well taken. Anthony, Mayer, et. al are no lock to be quality big league starters. But, the most dependable way to win consistently is with young, cost controlled talent that can produce at the MLB level. They either fill a spot for small money (and allow you to spend more $$$ elsewhere) or act as trade chips to acquire proven talent. Nothing is certain, but having a highly ranked farm system is definitely worth getting excited about, especially for a team with the $$ resources to supplement young talent via free agency.

Rovin Romine · Jul 13, 2023

Philip Jeff Frye said:
I see this and think "whoa, let's calm down a bit about all our prospects." It's great that we have them and that they seem to be climbing the charts lately, but its still a long way from here to Cooperstown. Benintendi has had a decent career, but he's not a superstar, and Moncada, outside of one really good year, has been a bit of a disappointment, hasn't he? Would people be pleased if Mayer's career ended up looking like Benintendi's?

I see this and think, "Oh, rankings." Every player, really good or kinda meh, that's come up in the last however many years has had a ranking. There's probably some correlation between higher ranking and more sustained success. But I doubt it's a very tight one.

So it's nice that there's a number and all that. But it's not as important as what they're potentially capable of doing.

AlNipper49 · Jul 13, 2023

The difference with the system now is there is way more health beyond those ranked highly by scouts. Finding superstars is definitely an objective of a healthy system. Being able to trickle in one or two cost-controlled players a year is just as important.

If the team consistently is able to maintain 10ish players that are not FA eligible then you can take a whole lot of swings at the least efficient form of team building, free agency.

EyeBob · Jul 13, 2023

Bloom haters be hatin’. No question this team is better poised for the future with this stock of younger talent. Frankly this, and next year will be the most interesting to watch from a organizational stand point (more so than the play-on-the-field standpoint). Chaim, go build what you think works, we can all judge it by the end of 2024.

Petagine in a Bottle · Jul 13, 2023

This year always shaped up to be a huge year for the system- and the last month+ has been extremely promising, seems like positive developments across the board for many Sox prospects. The next step is converting that into value for the major league club, via production from players called up and / or via trades. Some of the prospects will never have more value than they do right now- ideally, those are the guys that are flipped, and the ones kept turn into the next Betts / Devers / etc.

chrisfont9 · Jul 13, 2023

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
Probably have to go back to the 2016 and 2017 for something better.

Ending the 2015 season, going into 2016 rankings (going BA, MLB, BP)

Moncada was 3, 7 and 7 - averaged to 6th.
Devers was 18, 17 and 35 - averaged to 23rd.
Benintendi was 15, 25 and 46 - averaged to 29th.
Margot was 56, 46 and 14 - averaged to 39th.
Kopech was 89, 16 and 98 - averaged to 67th.

Prospects produced by the farm system had 4 players averaged out to the top 40 and 5 averaged out to the top 75. In the 2015-16 off season Margot was traded for Kimbrel.

Ending the 2016 season heading into 2017 rankings were

Benintendi was 1, 1 and 3 - averaged out to 2nd.
Moncada was 2, 2 and 5 - averaged out to 3rd.
Devers was 18, 17 and 13 - averaged out to 16th.
Kopech was 32, 10 and 36 - averaged out to 26th.
Groome was 43rd, 41 and 29 - averaged out to 38th.

Prospects produced by the farm system had 5 in the top 40, on average. In the 2016-17 off season Moncada and Kopech were traded for Sale.

Obviously we don't know where everyone will be ranked from the farm system ending this year going into next year as of yet. Though for better or worse, I feel pretty confident none of the top 5 prospects will be traded. TBD if that is a good or a bad thing, of course.

Thanks for rounding this up.

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Jul 13, 2023

Rovin Romine said:
So it's nice that there's a number and all that. But it's not as important as what they're potentially capable of doing.

Well, yeah.
But the number is supposed to be an informed prediction of what they're potentially capable of doing. It's just sort of an interesting(to me anyway) guideline, given that we don't really have any other way to predict what their future might be.

chrisfont9 · Jul 13, 2023

Philip Jeff Frye said:
I see this and think "whoa, let's calm down a bit about all our prospects." It's great that we have them and that they seem to be climbing the charts lately, but its still a long way from here to Cooperstown. Benintendi has had a decent career, but he's not a superstar, and Moncada, outside of one really good year, has been a bit of a disappointment, hasn't he? Would people be pleased if Mayer's career ended up looking like Benintendi's?

Mixed feelings. It would be disappointing if none of these guys ended up being next-tier types. Overall, I'd say teams should be happy with their top prospects evolving into 2-3 WAR guys during their arb years -- positive contributors to an overall team output at a low cost that enables them to spend on difference-makers. But we could use a steady supply of real cornerstone talent, not just Raffy and Bello (and Duran?), then a bunch of 2-3 win guys.

moondog80 · Jul 13, 2023

Rovin Romine said:
I see this and think, "Oh, rankings." Every player, really good or kinda meh, that's come up in the last however many years has had a ranking. There's probably some correlation between higher ranking and more sustained success. But I doubt it's a very tight one.

I'd guess the correlation is pretty strong. Which doesn't mean perfect. Some guys in the top 10 will flop and some unranked guys will be stars. But I'd be shocked if the 1st quartile doesn't significantly outperform the 4th quartile, and if the 4th quartile didn't outperform say, a random sample of 25 guys who appear in teams' top 10 lists but not the MLB 100.

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Jul 13, 2023

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
To your point, @Philip Jeff Frye , I've continued to go down the rabbit-hole of looking up past Sox prospect rankings.

The 2013 and 2014 window was also very highly rated.

Before the 2013 season it was:

Bogaerts was 8, 20 and 12 - averaged 13th
Bradley Jr was 31, 32 and 27 - averaged 30th
Barnes was 40, 38 and 38 - averaged 39th
Allen Webster was 49, 71 and 69 - averaged 63rd

So there were 4 players produced by the farm in the top 65, on average.

Pre 2014 looked even better - at least from a depth standpoint:

Bogaerts was 2, 2 and 2 - averaged 2nd
Bradley was 50, 33 and 23 - averaged 35th
Henry Owens was 40, 30 and 69 - averaged 46th
Cecchini was 74, 57 and 71 - averaged 61st
Swihart was 73, 61 and 73 - averaged 69th
Betts was 75, 62 and 101* - averaged 79th.

6 players in the top 80 prospects in the game. (*Betts actually wasn't ever ranked by baseball prospectus - at least not in a pre-season ranking - but rather than saying they have no idea, I'm saying he was the first honorable mention and calling him 101st.)

So again, while we obviously don't know what things will look like at the end of the year, you'd have to go back to the end of the 2016, 2015, 2013 and 2012 seasons to find more impressive farm system rankings for the Red Sox.

To be clear, none of this is to say "LETS TRADE MARCELO MAYER FOR TWO MONTHS OF LUCAS GIOLITO! GO RED SOX"; it's just that I do think this would be a decent time for Bloom and company to do some real deep dives on their own prospects and see if they can't take a couple of them and find a deal like Toronto made for Berrios back in 2021 (or dare I say Cherington and Hoyer for Beckett and Lowell in the 2015 off-season or that DDski made for Chris Sale) to address the biggest pressing flaw on the 2024 and beyond team, at least in my opinion- which is a pitcher projected to head the rotation with Bello.

Obviously Toronto didn't give up pieces from it's MLB roster in this deal. However they gave up (at least from MLB.com; because that is easiest to find) Austin Martin (2) and Simeon Woods Richardson (4) to get Berrios. They held on to Pearson (1), Groshans (3), Kirk (5), OMartinez (6), Manoah (7) and Moreno (8).

My personal favorite target would be Dylan Cease and just as an example of "fake trades that won't happen" BTV gives an almost exactly fair grade to Cease to Boston; Yorke, Bleis and Walter to ChW. It also works out if ChW prefers Drohan to Walter (and I'd guess they would). BTV would also have it clear with Crawford instead of Yorke, but I'd have to assume ChW would prefer Yorke.

But I'd feel pretty good about the rest of 2023 (and I'd feel even better about it for 2024-2030) with

Yoshida - L
Verdugo (extended) - R
Devers - L
Turner - R (this year)
Casas - L
Story - R (August?)
Duran - L
Wong - R
Reyes / Chang - R

Cease
Bello
Paxton (this year)
Houck (August?)
Crawford (if he's still here)

Pivetta in there as a "bulk" pitcher.

Whitlock in the 'pen the rest of this year and re-evaluate in the off-season.

Assuming it would take Bleis (2), Yorke (5) and Drohan (6) Would still leave a system of Mayer (1) , Rafaela (3), Anthony (4), Perales (7) and I'll actually bet Keel would probably be more like (5 or 6) when he gets ranked.

It would have been fantastic however if Moncada, Kopech stuck around and turned into the prospects they were hyped to be. That would have moved Devers likely over to 1B and possibly prevented the Sale situation.... (also in this hypothetical, Kopech isn't injured and Moncada lives up to the hype).
Probably a bad example... but obviously the hope is is that the prospects are good enough that you don't even need to make the Sale trade.

Rovin Romine · Jul 13, 2023

moondog80 said:
I'd guess the correlation is pretty strong. Which doesn't mean perfect. Some guys in the top 10 will flop and some unranked guys will be stars. But I'd be shocked if the 1st quartile doesn't significantly outperform the 4th quartile, and if the 4th quartile didn't outperform say, a random sample of 25 guys who appear in teams' top 10 lists but not the MLB 100.

10 years old: https://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

It looks a bit chunky: top 10 (20 for position players) grade well, then there's a pretty even band after that. But grading well is still just a slightly weighted coin flip. I suspect the top is always going to be skewed by a couple of "can't miss" generational players.

Rovin Romine · Jul 13, 2023

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat said:
Well, yeah.
But the number is supposed to be an informed prediction of what they're potentially capable of doing. It's just sort of an interesting(to me anyway) guideline, given that we don't really have any other way to predict what their future might be.

The problem is really the implied 1-100 linearity of it all; the implication #20 means more than #99 - whereas in reality the chances of MLB success might be pretty even.

Plus, you know, there's always a top 100 group of prospects every year in the minors, and somebody's got to be #1, 2, and 3. Spread that out amongst all the levels of the minors and the 1-100 list starts to look like a pretty inane way to vet anybody's chances of doing well, save for the "well duh" talents.

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Jul 13, 2023

Rovin Romine said:
The problem is really the implied 1-100 linearity of it all; the implication #20 means more than #99 - whereas in reality the chances of MLB success might be pretty even.

That's totally fair. I'd guess the curve flattens very quickly.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Jul 13, 2023

Happy to @chrisfont9 - it was an interesting thought exercise. When I started looking, I assumed going into 2014 and somewhere leading up to the 2018 team would be really high; though in some ways I forgot how astronomically high and short Mookie's rise was. Unranked (by BP at least) prospect heading into the 2014 season, top 20 MVP vote getter by 2015. I knew Bogaerts was always the higher ranked prospect, but I forgot that Mookie never even got to a consensus top 75 slot.

This is of course true @Sandy Leon Trotsky - but is that realistic? For anyone. Not a question of the Sox but the game in general.

The Braves and Astros have probably been the two "gold standards", at least over the past 5 years or so.

Atlanta has done an unbelievable job of knowing whom to keep (Acuna, Albies, Swanson, Riley, Fried, Strider) and whom to move (Pache, Langeliers, Muller, Davidson, Estes). They didn't capitalize on Waters, but I'm going to call Ian Anderson a win because he was huge in their title run. This is admittedly just off the top of my head.

Houston has too - they hit on Correa, Tucker, Altuve, Alvarez, Bregman, Pena, Valdez, Javier and Brown. They did of course trade Moran (sucked) and Musgrove (really good) whom were highly ranked, but got Cole out of the deal (I forgot he never won a title with Houston until just looking it up). Same with moving Daz Cameron for Verlander. Grienke cost them JB Bukauskas and Corbin Martin (both of whom were roughly top 75-100 prospects) along with Seth Beer and Josh Rojas. Of highly ranked players they held on to that became worthless, I'm really only finding AJ Reed, Frances Martes, Whitley.

So I guess my point is no matter HOW good you are at evaluating prospects, not all of them will become what they "could" be. The teams we should (I think) emulate right now have been either excellent at identifying prospects to move.

Identifying whom to move wasn't really a strength of Cherington's - he basically held everyone - but he did win a World Series and flags fly forever, so it can be done. It was obviously a strength of DDski's and Theo's. We have no idea on Bloom.

One thing that I think is interesting - and this is where I come in on the "buying" side of things, is I can't think of a single move involving highly ranked prospects that either Houston or Atlanta has made recently where they players they acquired didn't have multiple seasons left. To my recollection, this is how DDski and Theo/Cherington/Hoyer operated here as well. it's obviously what I hope Bloom does and becomes; we'll see.

nvalvo · Jul 13, 2023

A ton of these posts are basically restating the case for the fangraphs approach of tiers based on FV grades.

That helps you see the top-100 list flatten out. Right now, they have 2 65s, about a dozen 60s, 25 or so 55s, and then a ton of 50s all the way to 125, where the 45+ guys start. So by their logic, the ~40th and ~125th prospect are comparable.

sezwho · Jul 13, 2023

nvalvo said:
A ton of these posts are basically restating the case for the fangraphs approach of tiers based on FV grades.

That helps you see the top-100 list flatten out. Right now, they have 2 65s, about a dozen 60s, 25 or so 55s, and then a ton of 50s all the way to 125, where the 45+ guys start. So by their logic, the ~40th and ~125th prospect are comparable.

That is a helpful way to look at it thanks.

RS2004foreever · Jul 13, 2023

My main reaction grimshaw list is this:
Are the Rays the best-run organization in professional sports?

One development that is being underrated is teams signing players very early to extensions (See Wander Franco). This means smart teams like the Rays are no longer going to feature a revolving door like they once did (the Braves have done this as well).
Competing with the Rays is going to get harder, not easier.

If you think like the Rays you would look at something like the Adames for Drew Rasmussen trade. The Rays had a stockpile of middle infield talent - which they used to trade for young pitching. I am far from an expert but I would like to see a few really good arms on the farm who are the equivalent of Bradley for the Rays.

moondog80 · Jul 13, 2023

RS2004foreever said:
My main reaction grimshaw list is this:
Are the Rays the best-run organization in professional sports?

In 2021 the Rays traded Cleveland a guy they ended up releasing and has since been in 3 different organizations. The guy they got in return is currently ranked #2 on the aforementioned top 100 (he was 99 to start the season).

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Jul 13, 2023

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
Happy to @chrisfont9 - it was an interesting thought exercise. When I started looking, I assumed going into 2014 and somewhere leading up to the 2018 team would be really high; though in some ways I forgot how astronomically high and short Mookie's rise was. Unranked (by BP at least) prospect heading into the 2014 season, top 20 MVP vote getter by 2015. I knew Bogaerts was always the higher ranked prospect, but I forgot that Mookie never even got to a consensus top 75 slot.

This is of course true @Sandy Leon Trotsky - but is that realistic? For anyone. Not a question of the Sox but the game in general.

The Braves and Astros have probably been the two "gold standards", at least over the past 5 years or so.

Atlanta has done an unbelievable job of knowing whom to keep (Acuna, Albies, Swanson, Riley, Fried, Strider) and whom to move (Pache, Langeliers, Muller, Davidson, Estes). They didn't capitalize on Waters, but I'm going to call Ian Anderson a win because he was huge in their title run. This is admittedly just off the top of my head.

Houston has too - they hit on Correa, Tucker, Altuve, Alvarez, Bregman, Pena, Valdez, Javier and Brown. They did of course trade Moran (sucked) and Musgrove (really good) whom were highly ranked, but got Cole out of the deal (I forgot he never won a title with Houston until just looking it up). Same with moving Daz Cameron for Verlander. Grienke cost them JB Bukauskas and Corbin Martin (both of whom were roughly top 75-100 prospects) along with Seth Beer and Josh Rojas. Of highly ranked players they held on to that became worthless, I'm really only finding AJ Reed, Frances Martes, Whitley.

So I guess my point is no matter HOW good you are at evaluating prospects, not all of them will become what they "could" be. The teams we should (I think) emulate right now have been either excellent at identifying prospects to move.

Identifying whom to move wasn't really a strength of Cherington's - he basically held everyone - but he did win a World Series and flags fly forever, so it can be done. It was obviously a strength of DDski's and Theo's. We have no idea on Bloom.

One thing that I think is interesting - and this is where I come in on the "buying" side of things, is I can't think of a single move involving highly ranked prospects that either Houston or Atlanta has made recently where they players they acquired didn't have multiple seasons left. To my recollection, this is how DDski and Theo/Cherington/Hoyer operated here as well. it's obviously what I hope Bloom does

RS2004foreever said:
My main reaction grimshaw list is this:
Are the Rays the best-run organization in professional sports?

One development that is being underrated is teams signing players very early to extensions (See Wander Franco). This means smart teams like the Rays are no longer going to feature a revolving door like they once did (the Braves have done this as well).
Competing with the Rays is going to get harder, not easier.

If you think like the Rays you would look at something like the Adames for Drew Rasmussen trade. The Rays had a stockpile of middle infield talent - which they used to trade for young pitching. I am far from an expert but I would like to see a few really good arms on the farm who are the equivalent of Bradley for the Rays.

I do think Bloom should deal Yorke. I think he’s good…. But short term he’s blocked by Story and long term he’s got Meidroth, Romero.
He could probably pry loose a very good starter (oh….. and just let Dalbec go in it too!!!) with maybe one more year left.
But right side MI is where they’re stacked already and just added another 2-3 good potential kids to provide depth

Edit-
Response to first quote…. Yes. That’s a platonic ideal of prospect development.

BringBackMo · Jul 13, 2023

What the best organizations in baseball are doing with their minor leagues is attempting to build prospect depth at every level at every position. Once you have THAT kind of depth, then you can start thinking about trading prospects who are close to the majors but are blocked.

In this way, the seeming logjam at middle infield in the organization right now is a feature not a bug. It’s meant as the beginnings of a kind of assembly line, and I don’t see the Sox trading any of their top prospects until their overall minor league assembly line is further developed. And in any case, they certainly are not yet at the point where they’ll have to move prospects because they are blocked at the major league level. They simply don’t have a prospect right now who is legitimately knocking on the big league door, let alone one who is doing so at a position where they already have an established player.

There’s also the fact that, right now, neither Romero nor Meidroth is anywhere near the prospect that Yorke is. That could change over the next year or two. They or others could fill out the assembly line and make Yorke redundant. But he’s not even in Worcester yet. There is plenty of time before those kinds of decisions will have to be made about him, or any other Sox minor leaguer. My guess is that the Sox won’t trade any of their better prospects for at least two years.

Red(s)HawksFan · Jul 13, 2023

BringBackMo said:
What the best organizations in baseball are doing with their minor leagues is attempting to build prospect depth at every level at every position. Once you have THAT kind of depth, then you can start thinking about trading prospects who are close to the majors but are blocked.

In this way, the seeming logjam at middle infield in the organization right now is a feature not a bug. It’s meant as the beginnings of a kind of assembly line, and I don’t see the Sox trading any of their top prospects until their overall minor league assembly line is further developed. And in any case, they certainly are not yet at the point where they’ll have to move prospects because they are blocked at the major league level. They simply don’t have a prospect right now who is legitimately knocking on the big league door, let alone one who is doing so at a position where they already have an established player.

There’s also the fact that, right now, neither Romero nor Meidroth is anywhere near the prospect that Yorke is. That could change over the next year or two. They or others could fill out the assembly line and make Yorke redundant. But he’s not even in Worcester yet. There is plenty of time before those kinds of decisions will have to be made about him, or any other Sox minor leaguer. My guess is that the Sox won’t trade any of their better prospects for at least two years.

Well said, and I would only add that with middle infield prospect depth in particular, just because they appear blocked where they are now doesn't mean they can't switch positions when they get closer to MLB ready. See Betts, Markus Lynn as a somewhat recent example of that. 2B prospect that had a roadblock named Dustin Pedroia in front of him on the big league team. They swap him to the outfield and 50-some odd games later, he's in the big leagues to stay.

RS2004foreever · Jul 13, 2023

In terms of the assembly line: two model examples:
Ademes was traded to make room for Franco, and
Houston made a qualifying offer to Correa (which they knew he would turn down) in part because Pena was ready.

That is absolutely the model. But Boston just has few pitching prospects - hence my idea of trading some of the MI for pitching. I am far from an expert though.

Valuing the assets, where do the Sox stand?

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