Trade Deadline Approach

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Two points...
Regarding morale, exactly what morale issues are people (not you exclusively) anticipating? Bloom not moving guys like Duvall, Verdugo and Paxton should be seen as a positive by the players. Say what you like about Bloom's statement, but keeping the current roster along with the expectations of 5 returning players should be seen as him being comfortable going with what he has. IMO as a player, that should be a positive.

Regarding bumping guys from the roster, there is something here that I think you're overlooking. Sale is expected back soon, we probably lose Jacques on his return. Houck and Whitlock are hoped to be back in the next couple of weeks. Two other guys are going to have to be moved when that happens. How much surplus on the current staff are you seeing that would facilitate an additional move or two?

On the morale front, honestly, it depends on the team make up. It often seems that when teams on the fringes of playoff contention don't add at the deadline AND see the teams around them adding, the season goes to crap pretty darn fast. The 2019 team was within around like 3 games of a WC spot (I think I'm reading it right around 7/31) and finished 12 games out. We all know what happened last year but if people want me to look up the exact dates I will. Even the 2021 team nearly blew it (and that was with adding Schwarber) as they went from being the 2nd best team in the AL and 1.5 up in the division on the deadline day to being THISCLOSE to blowing a 9.5 game lead over Toronto in two months.

I joked about it earlier, but I don't entirely discount the possibility that the team rallies around the front office not adding in a Rachel Phelps-esque kind of way. Kenley is at least saying the right things in that regard, and I think he does have a lot of pull in the clubhouse (since he's the one speaking) but who knows.

On Sale, I'll believe they're back, pitching and healthy when they get there. We're going on I think year 3 of banking on Chris Sale being healthy and effective right? In 2021 he was ostensibly healthy and somewhere between atrocious and "meh" in the post season. Did the team leave a chance at a WS on the table by not acquiring Scherzer or Berrios; we'll never know, I suppose. In 2022 we know the score. I'm sorry that I'm not banking on him being healthy and good in 2023 either when he's 3 years older.

However, as mentioned, Jacques is probably the first to go. Then Bleier. Winckowski is alright, but I wouldn't at all be against sending him back to AAA. On the offensive side, I'd like to see Urias up because at least he was a really good baseball player as recently as last year. Arroyo is not a good baseball player. That should be easy. When Story comes back, you should be able to choose between one of Chang and Reyes (I'd personally keep Reyes because he's been playing some OF), and your MI is Story, Urias and "Yu Reyes" (I don't really care which of them are held on to). Personally I think they should be going with 4 OF and a utility guy (that could play the OF in a pinch - Reyes) and thus having both Duvall and Refsnyder on the team is redundant, but they're both here now, so it is what it is.

Not flipping Duvall or Paxton may also make us a more desirable destination for free agents. It’s probably not a good thing to have a reputation as a team that signs players to flip them for prospects.

We heard a lot last winter about the Sox making offers and getting rebuffed, even when the money was comparable or better. There was also a ton of negative press about the team, and virtually no one figured they’d be in contention. Maybe some would-be FA signings during those negotiations expressed concerns they’d just be flipped?

Generally speaking, I believe 99% of the time money talks, and if you offer more more, you're going to get the player.

That aside, you're absolutely right. It might play a role. It'll depend on the player.

However, so might this as any front office exec will be able to use this deadline against them too. "Sure, go to Boston. Play your guts out for 100 games, get your team in contention, beg for help like Jansen and Martin did and then have the front office refuse to move guys in AA to go for the World Series and give you nothing. Or come to Houston (or Texas, or Toronto, or Baltimore or LA) where when the team begs for help we add Justin Verlander (etc, etc)."

It'll depend on the player.

Or just pitch. All this fueling nonsense, it can't be real.


This is why I'm one of the people pushing back on a lot of the Bloom criticism -- because people will just say "he sucks" like that's the end of the story. But it probably isn't, Bloom and his scouts and evaluators know a lot more about the game than the average fan. It's complicated and there's a lot of gray area in baseball, but guys with velocity and secondary pitches can be made productive if you can find the right tweak. I'm not going to tell them to dump a guy when I'm not in the building, or even remotely a professional evaluator, because we see over and over again that guys find something and are effective.

I think it could be real, depending on the player. The best and the most important players in Red Sox history (in my opinion they are Pedro and Ortiz, respectively) were famous for inventing slights or taking the smallest thing and getting "fueling" from it. The front office in Boston always ended up paying Ortiz (and at the top of the DH market) and gave him a freaking truck and a "title" because of how much they appreciated him, and he'd still use his contract as a slight nearly every season. This isn't of course the way all players will look at it, but I'd totally believe it for others.


That said - I do agree with you on the "he sucks" or "he's above reproach" crowd for Bloom and that being the end of the story is not interesting to discuss. It's why I always say, Bloom is (in my opinion) a good executive. I think he's assuredly in the top half of the league. I still question if he will make the moves necessary to get himself (or his team) to a title. I think it's fair to agree that they obviously and certainly know much more than even the best fans and probably know more than about half the league while also questioning if they know more or are willing to do more than Anthopoulos, Brown, Dombrowski, Mozeliak, Cashman, Cherington, Friedman, Zaidi, Shapiro, Bendix and Hyde. Because it only matters if he's better than those dozen or so people - not that he's roughly 2,000,000x smarter than @Big Papi's Mango Salsa.

 

[YTF]

On the morale front, honestly, it depends on the team make up. It often seems that when teams on the fringes of playoff contention don't add at the deadline AND see the teams around them adding, the season goes to crap pretty darn fast. The 2019 team was within around like 3 games of a WC spot (I think I'm reading it right around 7/31) and finished 12 games out. We all know what happened last year but if people want me to look up the exact dates I will. Even the 2021 team nearly blew it (and that was with adding Schwarber) as they went from being the 2nd best team in the AL and 1.5 up in the division on the deadline day to being THISCLOSE to blowing a 9.5 game lead over Toronto in two months.

I joked about it earlier, but I don't entirely discount the possibility that the team rallies around the front office not adding in a Rachel Phelps-esque kind of way. Kenley is at least saying the right things in that regard, and I think he does have a lot of pull in the clubhouse (since he's the one speaking) but who knows.

On Sale, I'll believe they're back, pitching and healthy when they get there. We're going on I think year 3 of banking on Chris Sale being healthy and effective right? In 2021 he was ostensibly healthy and somewhere between atrocious and "meh" in the post season. Did the team leave a chance at a WS on the table by not acquiring Scherzer or Berrios; we'll never know, I suppose. In 2022 we know the score. I'm sorry that I'm not banking on him being healthy and good in 2023 either when he's 3 years older.

However, as mentioned, Jacques is probably the first to go. Then Bleier. Winckowski is alright, but I wouldn't at all be against sending him back to AAA. On the offensive side, I'd like to see Urias up because at least he was a really good baseball player as recently as last year. Arroyo is not a good baseball player. That should be easy. When Story comes back, you should be able to choose between one of Chang and Reyes (I'd personally keep Reyes because he's been playing some OF), and your MI is Story, Urias and "Yu Reyes" (I don't really care which of them are held on to). Personally I think they should be going with 4 OF and a utility guy (that could play the OF in a pinch - Reyes) and thus having both Duvall and Refsnyder on the team is redundant, but they're both here now, so it is what it is.




Generally speaking, I believe 99% of the time money talks, and if you offer more more, you're going to get the player.

That aside, you're absolutely right. It might play a role. It'll depend on the player.

However, so might this as any front office exec will be able to use this deadline against them too. "Sure, go to Boston. Play your guts out for 100 games, get your team in contention, beg for help like Jansen and Martin did and then have the front office refuse to move guys in AA to go for the World Series and give you nothing. Or come to Houston (or Texas, or Toronto, or Baltimore or LA) where when the team begs for help we add Justin Verlander (etc, etc)."

It'll depend on the player.




I think it could be real, depending on the player. The best and the most important players in Red Sox history (in my opinion they are Pedro and Ortiz, respectively) were famous for inventing slights or taking the smallest thing and getting "fueling" from it. The front office in Boston always ended up paying Ortiz (and at the top of the DH market) and gave him a freaking truck and a "title" because of how much they appreciated him, and he'd still use his contract as a slight nearly every season. This isn't of course the way all players will look at it, but I'd totally believe it for others.


That said - I do agree with you on the "he sucks" or "he's above reproach" crowd for Bloom and that being the end of the story is not interesting to discuss. It's why I always say, Bloom is (in my opinion) a good executive. I think he's assuredly in the top half of the league. I still question if he will make the moves necessary to get himself (or his team) to a title. I think it's fair to agree that they obviously and certainly know much more than even the best fans and probably know more than about half the league while also questioning if they know more or are willing to do more than Anthopoulos, Brown, Dombrowski, Mozeliak, Cashman, Cherington, Friedman, Zaidi, Shapiro, Bendix and Hyde. Because it only matters if he's better than those dozen or so people - not that he's roughly 2,000,000x smarter than @Big Papi's Mango Salsa.

It's not a matter of what you, I or anyone else think about Sale. The fact is, he's on the roster as are Houck, and Whitlock and are all expected back and are going to require three moves from the 26 man roster. Adding another arm or two would require addition moves and I'm not sure where those come from. If Bloom went out and got an "impact arm" he would find a way to make it work, but adding a back end rotation guy or middle relief guy is likely not going to do much considering who you might have to additionally remove from the 26 man.

 

[joe dokes]

Winckowski is alright, but I wouldn't at all be against sending him back to AAA.

Why's that? While he's out-pitching his peripherals, he's been doing so with considerable success for much of the season.

 

[Coachster]

It's not a matter of what you, I or anyone else think about Sale. The fact is, he's on the roster as are Houck, and Whitlock and are all expected back and are going to require three moves from the 26 man roster. Adding another arm or two would require addition moves and I'm not sure where those come from. If Bloom went out and got an "impact arm" he would find a way to make it work, but adding a back end rotation guy or middle relief guy is likely not going to do much considering who you might have to additionally remove from the 26 man.

Yeah, they are expected back. We keep hearing that. Sale is giving it the old college try in Worcester, and should be available for 2-3 inning bursts at the MLB level soon. Whitlock and Houck? They haven't even started gearing up. It's August 2. The'll need 2 weeks minimum, and there will obviously be a 'setback' with one or both of them, and even if there isn't, they'll only be good for 2-3 inning bursts till mid September.

A starter. A 4-5 level starter. An inning filler. It's what we really needed, because the one thing you can depend on regarding the health of athletes is that you can't depend on it.

We'll be fine, but it won't be easy.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Why's that? While he's out-pitching his peripherals, he's been doing so with considerable success for much of the season.

The HR/9 rate and WHIP are concerning to me. He's pretty far down the list of pieces to be clear (3rd regarding pitchers; 5th overall). Also, when given similar overall statlines, I prefer the pitcher doing a better job limiting the rockets he's giving up, has better walk rates and a better chase rate and has been eating innings more successfully and has pitched in the playoffs before. Especially when said pitcher was acquired for nothing.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ryan-yarbrough-642232?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb - Yarbrough

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/josh-winckowski-670174?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb - Winckowski

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

A starter. A 4-5 level starter. An inning filler. It's what we really needed, because the one thing you can depend on regarding the health of athletes is that you can't depend on it.

Well, to be fair, anyone they picked up would be about as likely to get injured as anyone on the current roster.

 

[Fishy1]

Yeah, they are expected back. We keep hearing that. Sale is giving it the old college try in Worcester, and should be available for 2-3 inning bursts at the MLB level soon. Whitlock and Houck? They haven't even started gearing up. It's August 2. The'll need 2 weeks minimum, and there will obviously be a 'setback' with one or both of them, and even if there isn't, they'll only be good for 2-3 inning bursts till mid September.

A starter. A 4-5 level starter. An inning filler. It's what we really needed, because the one thing you can depend on regarding the health of athletes is that you can't depend on it.

We'll be fine, but it won't be easy.

They actually have started gearing up. They both threw simulated innings, and they'll start rehab assignments in the next week. This happened literally yesterday.


https://www.mlb.com/news/red-sox-injuries-and-roster-moves

Honestly, this stuff isn't hard to look up. I don't say that as an admonishment, just that it would be nice if people looked this stuff up before saying "they haven't even started gearing up!"

Now, setbacks are certainly possible, but Houck got hit in the face with a baseball, he didn't get an arm injury.

There's going to be a crunch on the pitching staff if everybody stays healthy. That's a good thing: the team definitely won't have room for Llovera and Jacques, and someone else of Bleier, Murphy, Pivetta, or Crawford will have to be demoted. More likely someone gets injured, of course, but that's just to say there's a lot of good pitchers on this team right now, and pitchers deserving of a major league spot might have to be demoted.

I mean, we're all aware that the pitching staff has collectively had an ERA well below 4.00 for the better part of two months, right?

 

[chawson]

Jeffrey Springs agrees with you but Brasier having 41 innings over two seasons is an awfully long leash. If you're hoping to make the playoffs you can only roll the dice so many times for a potential set up guy when you may already have better internal guys. Credit to the Dodgers, they found something mechanical that the Sox didn't.

Zack Littell has also been pretty useful for the Rays. 2.92 xFIP in 26 innings since they claimed him from us on May 12th.

 

[chrisfont9]

On the morale front, honestly, it depends on the team make up. It often seems that when teams on the fringes of playoff contention don't add at the deadline AND see the teams around them adding, the season goes to crap pretty darn fast. The 2019 team was within around like 3 games of a WC spot (I think I'm reading it right around 7/31) and finished 12 games out. We all know what happened last year but if people want me to look up the exact dates I will. Even the 2021 team nearly blew it (and that was with adding Schwarber) as they went from being the 2nd best team in the AL and 1.5 up in the division on the deadline day to being THISCLOSE to blowing a 9.5 game lead over Toronto in two months.

I joked about it earlier, but I don't entirely discount the possibility that the team rallies around the front office not adding in a Rachel Phelps-esque kind of way. Kenley is at least saying the right things in that regard, and I think he does have a lot of pull in the clubhouse (since he's the one speaking) but who knows.

On Sale, I'll believe they're back, pitching and healthy when they get there. We're going on I think year 3 of banking on Chris Sale being healthy and effective right? In 2021 he was ostensibly healthy and somewhere between atrocious and "meh" in the post season. Did the team leave a chance at a WS on the table by not acquiring Scherzer or Berrios; we'll never know, I suppose. In 2022 we know the score. I'm sorry that I'm not banking on him being healthy and good in 2023 either when he's 3 years older.

However, as mentioned, Jacques is probably the first to go. Then Bleier. Winckowski is alright, but I wouldn't at all be against sending him back to AAA. On the offensive side, I'd like to see Urias up because at least he was a really good baseball player as recently as last year. Arroyo is not a good baseball player. That should be easy. When Story comes back, you should be able to choose between one of Chang and Reyes (I'd personally keep Reyes because he's been playing some OF), and your MI is Story, Urias and "Yu Reyes" (I don't really care which of them are held on to). Personally I think they should be going with 4 OF and a utility guy (that could play the OF in a pinch - Reyes) and thus having both Duvall and Refsnyder on the team is redundant, but they're both here now, so it is what it is.




Generally speaking, I believe 99% of the time money talks, and if you offer more more, you're going to get the player.

That aside, you're absolutely right. It might play a role. It'll depend on the player.

However, so might this as any front office exec will be able to use this deadline against them too. "Sure, go to Boston. Play your guts out for 100 games, get your team in contention, beg for help like Jansen and Martin did and then have the front office refuse to move guys in AA to go for the World Series and give you nothing. Or come to Houston (or Texas, or Toronto, or Baltimore or LA) where when the team begs for help we add Justin Verlander (etc, etc)."

It'll depend on the player.




I think it could be real, depending on the player. The best and the most important players in Red Sox history (in my opinion they are Pedro and Ortiz, respectively) were famous for inventing slights or taking the smallest thing and getting "fueling" from it. The front office in Boston always ended up paying Ortiz (and at the top of the DH market) and gave him a freaking truck and a "title" because of how much they appreciated him, and he'd still use his contract as a slight nearly every season. This isn't of course the way all players will look at it, but I'd totally believe it for others.


That said - I do agree with you on the "he sucks" or "he's above reproach" crowd for Bloom and that being the end of the story is not interesting to discuss. It's why I always say, Bloom is (in my opinion) a good executive. I think he's assuredly in the top half of the league. I still question if he will make the moves necessary to get himself (or his team) to a title. I think it's fair to agree that they obviously and certainly know much more than even the best fans and probably know more than about half the league while also questioning if they know more or are willing to do more than Anthopoulos, Brown, Dombrowski, Mozeliak, Cashman, Cherington, Friedman, Zaidi, Shapiro, Bendix and Hyde. Because it only matters if he's better than those dozen or so people - not that he's roughly 2,000,000x smarter than @Big Papi's Mango Salsa.

Thanks for all that. I’ll add that we talk waaaay too much about Bloom. He’s just the top of the spear. Sure, give him credit for the farm system’s uptick but he relies on dozens of people who really make the Sox what they are.

 

[joe dokes]

Zack Littell has also been pretty useful for the Rays. 2.92 xFIP in 26 innings since they claimed him from us on May 12th.

Guys like that-- and Schreiber and Bernardino with the Sox -- are really intriguing to me. I'd love to see a longform piece about "pitchers who kinda sucked, and then didn't." The differences and commonalities among them couldn't help but be interesting.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Mostly reading this thread with amusement....
Regarding morale being broken. I don't buy it. From my perspective I'd be more inclined to read this as a "We believe in the team we've assembled.... they battled through injuries to key players and have played the best baseball in the league since the end of June". And I'd agree... this team as is has played well. Is it flawed? Yeah... what team isn't? One injury to any team and shit can come crashing down... the Braves or Astros can look like a bunch of bush-league players through stretches. We're just not watching it... but two Braves fan-friends I have are groaning about their teams flaws and honestly, despite Devers costly error... the team defense has looked tremendously better over the past 8 weeks.
I also think the 4 key players returning are essentially better than any trade options that were REALISTIC. I'm not a big believer in juggling the team in an attempt to create a hypothetical lineup that may.... may gain a game or two when it's just as likely that the marginal upgrades are Eric Gagne in '07. That shit looked great on paper.... oof.
IMO if they can win tonight and take 2/3 in Toronto, they're in a great place for the following 10 games.
Criticisms of Bloom are fine, good lord. I just have read a bunch of entitled whiney fan complaints (mainly the one who apparently has been booted).
My belief was that the team AS IS is good enough to get into a WC spot... and it has 4 good to very good players coming back that appeared to be better than any realistic move. Marginal upgrades costing top tier minor league talent isn't worth it... and especially since historically minor upgrades don't really seem to help. Was there a Schwarber type of bat available? I don't see it... and the only place to put that bat was at 2B and I don't see any '21 Dalbec to Schwarber level improvement over what Bloom grabbed.
Likewise with starting pitching and the bullpen.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I also think the 4 key players returning are essentially better than any trade options that were REALISTIC. I'm not a big believer in juggling the team in an attempt to create a hypothetical lineup that may.... may gain a game or two when it's just as likely that the marginal upgrades are Eric Gagne in '07. That shit looked great on paper.... oof.
IMO if they can win tonight and take 2/3 in Toronto, they're in a great place for the following 10 games.

The bolded is something I think is really interesting, and I've been thinking on for a long time. I think this would be a fun exercise for anyone that wants to partake. Lets look at the trades that did happen, see if we can equate that to the Red Sox, and give an opinion on your stance of if you would have done it.

I understand and accept that there are things we'll never know: 1) Would such and such and so and so have accepted a trade to Boston; 2) How differently do front offices view prospects relative to prospect sites, etc. But looking at what happened, how close do you think we were and would you have done something similar? It's at least interesting to think about and can give us stuff to talk about during the playoffs if the Sox aren't in them or over the winter while we stare at the window waiting for spring.

I'm going to stick to Baseball Trade Values not because it's perfect, but because it's free, everyone can see it, and it's easy to use. That said, if someone like @JM3 thinks the prospect equivalencies are way off, let me know and I'd happily update them and then make a call. If this is interesting enough to anyone, I can start a new thread. If not, at least I won't have done that. Plus it'll give people ammunition to use when Bleis becomes Ronald Acuna Jr and can throw it back in my face (I certainly hope so).

Red Sox prospect values are as such, just to correspond Fangraphs to BTV: Mayer 55; Bleis 55; Rafaela 50; Yorke 50; Anthony 45+; Drohan 45; Alcantara 45; Gonzalez 45; Bastardo 45, Ramirez 45, Valdez 45; Paulino 40+, Meidroth 40+.

BTV has Mayer 62.5; Bleis 28.4, Anthony 24; Yorke 19; Rafaela 13.1; Paulino 5.5; Gonzalez 5.3; Perales 3.9 Drohan 3.9; Valdez 3.6; Meidroth 2.1; Bastardo 1.4; Ramirez N/A

I've listed out the deals in order of preference (ie, I'd have chosen Verlander first, then Scherzer, then Flaherty, then Yarbrough) based on deals that WERE made. I wouldn't have gone anywhere close to the deals for Lorenzen, Civale or Giolioto. Montgomery I'm on the fence, depending on who it would have taken in the Roby role. I'm sure I'm missing some.

Deals I'd make:

Aug. 1: Astros acquire RHP Justin Verlander and cash from Mets for OF Drew Gilbert and OF Ryan Clifford. BTV gives Verlander a 20 grade; Gilbert 13.1 and Clifford 7.8, so it matches out almost exactly. I'd have tried to match / beat this deal. Either by offering Bleis straight up and a) trying to get something back with Verlander or b) having them take more salary. I'd also have been more than fine with something like Yorke and lets say Ramirez.

July 29: Rangers acquire RHP Max Scherzer from Mets for INF Luisangel Acuña. Acuna has a 20.1 value on BTV, Scherzer is -16.4 (but I don't think that factors in the money). Roughly Yorke. I'd have done this in a millisecond and would have added a little more to Yorke if need be; call it Yorke and Bastardo.

Aug. 1: Orioles acquire RHP Jack Flaherty from Cardinals for INF César Prieto, LHP Drew Rom and RHP Zack Showalter Rom and Prieto are the only guys in their top 38, they combined for a 4.6; Flaherty is a 3.6. Roughly equivalent to Mata and Meidroth (edit - thanks for the info on the Balt system @chawson), which is a deal I would have done. To be fair, if StL said they wanted Drohan here, I'd have said no. But I would have easily moved Mata, Walter or Winckowski (in that order; similar values).

Aug. 1: Dodgers acquire LHP Ryan Yarbrough from Royals for 1B Devin Mann and SS Derlin Figueroa. Yarbrough has a value of 1; Figuero is N/A and Mann is 1.5, or basically Bastardo. I'd have absolutely moved Bastardo or similar for Yarbrough. This probably could have been done for any number of fringe 40 man players.


Deals I'd (*probably* in the case of Montgomery, see below) stay away from:

July 30: Rangers acquire LHP Jordan Montgomery and RHP Chris Stratton from Cardinals for SS Thomas Saggese, RHP Tekoah Roby and LHP John King. I think King may have already been DFA'ed, but Roby and Saggese were the only pieces that really mattered. They combine for a 7.1 on BTV; Montgomery and Stratton are an 8.4. Probably close to Gonzalez and Valdez, which I would not have done (because of Gonzalez; if they'd take Walter or Mata instead, I'd have done it).

Aug. 1: Phillies acquire RHP Michael Lorenzen from Tigers for INF Hao-Yu Lee Lorenzen had a 3.3 value, Lee at 7.8, so a bit more valuable than Paulino. I would not have moved Paulino for Lorenzen (but it's DDski, so Lee will probably be a bust). But that one is too rich for my blood.

July 31: Rays acquire RHP Aaron Civale from Guardians for 1B Kyle Manzardo. Civale is 26.2; Manzardo is 21.2. Roughly Yorke or Rafaela and Paulino. No way I'd have done this; Civale gets hurt all the time. We already have too many of those guys.

July 26: Angels acquire RHPs Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López from White Sox for LHP Ky Bush and C Edgar Quero. This was a massive overpay by LAA; in no way would I have considered it.


Edit - Deals that were made (and I like them, for the record).

Aug. 1: Red Sox acquire INF Luis Urías from Brewers for RHP Bradley Blalock. I think this was an excellent deal for Bloom. Urias is a .4; Blalock is a .5. Huge fan of this deal.

July 25: Dodgers acquire SS Kiké Hernández from Red Sox for RHP Nick Robertson and RHP Justin Hagenman. I'm not bothering to look it up. Getting anything for a guy that should have been DFA'ed is useful enough.

 

[JM3]

Nice post. I would make 0 of those trades. Verlander is a bit of a moot point because of the NTC, though.

 

[chawson]

The bolded is something I think is really interesting, and I've been thinking on for a long time. I think this would be a fun exercise for anyone that wants to partake. Lets look at the trades that did happen, see if we can equate that to the Red Sox, and give an opinion on your stance of if you would have done it.

I understand and accept that there are things we'll never know: 1) Would such and such and so and so have accepted a trade to Boston; 2) How differently do front offices view prospects relative to prospect sites, etc. But looking at what happened, how close do you think we were and would you have done something similar? It's at least interesting to think about and can give us stuff to talk about during the playoffs if the Sox aren't in them or over the winter while we stare at the window waiting for spring.

I'm going to stick to Baseball Trade Values not because it's perfect, but because it's free, everyone can see it, and it's easy to use. That said, if someone like @JM3 thinks the prospect equivalencies are way off, let me know and I'd happily update them and then make a call. If this is interesting enough to anyone, I can start a new thread. If not, at least I won't have done that. Plus it'll give people ammunition to use when Bleis becomes Ronald Acuna Jr and can throw it back in my face (I certainly hope so).

Red Sox prospect values are as such, just to correspond Fangraphs to BTV: Mayer 55; Bleis 55; Rafaela 50; Yorke 50; Anthony 45+; Drohan 45; Alcantara 45; Gonzalez 45; Bastardo 45, Ramirez 45, Valdez 45; Paulino 40+, Meidroth 40+.

BTV has Mayer 62.5; Bleis 28.4, Anthony 24; Yorke 19; Rafaela 13.1; Paulino 5.5; Gonzalez 5.3; Perales 3.9 Drohan 3.9; Valdez 3.6; Meidroth 2.1; Bastardo 1.4; Ramirez N/A

I've listed out the deals in order of preference (ie, I'd have chosen Verlander first, then Scherzer, then Flaherty, then Yarbrough) based on deals that WERE made. I wouldn't have gone anywhere close to the deals for Lorenzen, Civale or Giolioto. Montgomery I'm on the fence, depending on who it would have taken in the Roby role. I'm sure I'm missing some.

Deals I'd make:

Aug. 1: Astros acquire RHP Justin Verlander and cash from Mets for OF Drew Gilbert and OF Ryan Clifford. BTV gives Verlander a 20 grade; Gilbert 13.1 and Clifford 7.8, so it matches out almost exactly. I'd have tried to match / beat this deal. Either by offering Bleis straight up and a) trying to get something back with Verlander or b) having them take more salary. I'd also have been more than fine with something like Yorke and lets say Ramirez.

July 29: Rangers acquire RHP Max Scherzer from Mets for INF Luisangel Acuña. Acuna has a 20.1 value on BTV, Scherzer is -16.4 (but I don't think that factors in the money). Roughly Yorke. I'd have done this in a millisecond and would have added a little more to Yorke if need be; call it Yorke and Bastardo.

Aug. 1: Orioles acquire RHP Jack Flaherty from Cardinals for INF César Prieto, LHP Drew Rom and RHP Zack Showalter Rom and Prieto are the only guys in their top 38, they combined for a 4.6; Flaherty is a 3.6. Roughly equivalent to Mata and Bonaci, which is a deal I would have done. To be fair, if StL said they wanted Drohan here, I'd have said no. But I would have easily moved Mata, Walter or Winckowski (in that order; similar values).

Aug. 1: Dodgers acquire LHP Ryan Yarbrough from Royals for 1B Devin Mann and SS Derlin Figueroa. Yarbrough has a value of 1; Figuero is N/A and Mann is 1.5, or basically Bastardo. I'd have absolutely moved Bastardo or similar for Yarbrough. This probably could have been done for any number of fringe 40 man players.


Deals I'd (*probably* in the case of Montgomery, see below) stay away from:

July 30: Rangers acquire LHP Jordan Montgomery and RHP Chris Stratton from Cardinals for SS Thomas Saggese, RHP Tekoah Roby and LHP John King. I think King may have already been DFA'ed, but Roby and Saggese were the only pieces that really mattered. They combine for a 7.1 on BTV; Montgomery and Stratton are an 8.4. Probably close to Gonzalez and Valdez, which I would not have done (because of Gonzalez; if they'd take Walter or Mata instead, I'd have done it).

Aug. 1: Phillies acquire RHP Michael Lorenzen from Tigers for INF Hao-Yu Lee Lorenzen had a 3.3 value, Lee at 7.8, so a bit more valuable than Paulino. I would not have moved Paulino for Lorenzen (but it's DDski, so Lee will probably be a bust). But that one is too rich for my blood.

July 31: Rays acquire RHP Aaron Civale from Guardians for 1B Kyle Manzardo. Civale is 26.2; Manzardo is 21.2. Roughly Yorke or Rafaela and Paulino. No way I'd have done this; Civale gets hurt all the time. We already have too many of those guys.

July 26: Angels acquire RHPs Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López from White Sox for LHP Ky Bush and C Edgar Quero. This was a massive overpay by LAA; in no way would I have considered it.


Edit - Deals that were made (and I like them, for the record).

Aug. 1: Red Sox acquire INF Luis Urías from Brewers for RHP Bradley Blalock. I think this was an excellent deal for Bloom. Urias is a .4; Blalock is a .5. Huge fan of this deal.

July 25: Dodgers acquire SS Kiké Hernández from Red Sox for RHP Nick Robertson and RHP Justin Hagenman. I'm not bothering to look it up. Getting anything for a guy that should have been DFA'ed is useful enough.

Fun exercise. I think the only one I'd have done is Flaherty, but the difference between the Orioles package and Mata+Bonaci is the Rule 5 eligibility. Mata and Rom are both on the 40-man and roughly similar value, but Bonaci needs protection this winter while Prieto doesn't need adding for another couple years. Mata and Meidroth then? IDK.

 

[simplicio]

I didn't follow the money closely; did the Mets pay enough of Scherzer or Verlander's salaries to bring their costs below the ~$7m we had available?

 

[YTF]

Nice post. I would make 0 of those trades. Verlander is a bit of a moot point because of the NTC, though.

Another consideration with Verlander is the $35 million player option that he holds for 2025 if he tosses 140 innings in 2024. I'm not sure what part, if any, the Mets are picking up.

 

[YTF]

I didn't follow the money closely; did the Mets pay enough of Scherzer or Verlander's salaries to bring their costs below the ~$7m we had available?

What are you, an accountant?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I didn't follow the money closely; did the Mets pay enough of Scherzer or Verlander's salaries to bring their costs below the ~$7m we had available?

If Cot's is to be believed...

The portion of Verlander's salary the Astros are responsible for is about $4M for the remainder of this year and about $18M for next year. The portion of Scherzer's salary the Rangers are responsible for is about $1M for this year and $23M for next year.

Not sure how that works out for luxury tax purposes though, whether it's each year counted individually or averaged between the two.

 

[JM3]

Another consideration with Verlander is the $35 million player option that he holds for 2025 if he tosses 140 innings in 2024. I'm not sure what part, if any, the Mets are picking up.

They're paying $35m plus half of the $35m option if it vests ($17.5.).

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

In terms of Luxury Tax Salary, specifically, Spotrac shows Verlander with a $0 hit for this year to Houston https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/houston-astros/payroll/

Same for Texas with a $0 hit on Scherzer https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/texas-rangers/payroll/

Maybe this needs to be updated and hasn't, but that's what I checked before posting, and I should have included it.

It's the extra years of control that make me ok with giving up either Bleis or Yorke plus "Bastardo" for either Max or Verlander, based on the money the Mets took on.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Scherzer and Verlander have each been worth ~2 WAR this year; Crawford is 1.6 in 30 fewer innings. Paxton has been 1.9, Bello 2.6. I think the version of Scherzer and Verlander that people have in their head isn’t really who they are anymore, or at least who they’ve been this year. These guys are old with a lot of mileage, I wouldn’t want those contracts next year (and I doubt either guy wanted to come here). Maybe I’m wrong and these two will be studs the rest of the way, not sure I’d have bet on it.

 

[shanks]

hey. long time reader. long time too intimidated to post. also, y’all are all great.

but going forward, in the “market deficiency” train of thought…should the sox sign “too many” starters nxt yr in the churn of trading off to keep repeating the minors?

like, we’re gonna have sale (i know), whitlock, houck, bello, crawford, plus minors avail for spots/coverage. but is it logic to sign too much and have a glut and maybe have an opportunity to take advantage of this sellers market?

also, loving this season. also, might be day drinkin.

 

[shanks]

also, i’m talking of the likes of a r.hill, maybe paxton (if it’s cost effective) kinda of signings.

(also, should i use more parentheses?)

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Has anyone noticed that Red Sox trade deadline and Patriots draft threads kind of follow the exact same pattern? It would be interesting to line up posters and see how they fall on both.

I register on both with bemused detachment -- mainly hoping someone will post something dumb enough for E5 to make a funny.

It does feel in both cases as though we're dealing with such a massive information deficit that "buy" or "sell" become abstract to the point of meaninglessness.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

@Petagine in a Bottle Verlander is (lux tax purposes) $22.5m next year for Houston and $17.5m for 2025 should it vest.

Scherzer is $22.5m for next year.

I‘d easily take 1yr / $22.5m for those guys for two playoff runs at the prospect cost those two took. Understanding their respective ages and that they‘re both more like really good #2 starters now and not the HoF aces they were, but call them similar to 2013 Lackey, I’d say.

That would give you a rotation now of ”Scherlander”, Bello, Paxton, Crawford, ”Murvetta”. Which I think could absolutely make up the ground to get in and be nasty in the playoffs. If Sale, Houck and Whitlock all stay healthy you have an insane bullpen of Jansen, Martin, Houck, Whitlock, Sale, Bernardino and take your pick of what else is left (as of today not Schrieber and Bleier, that’s for sure - sorry - gamethready reaction, though I’ve always said Bleier stinks) but are not left totally dependent on their health.

Next year of Bello, “Scherlander”, plenty of money for Yamamoto, Crawford and Houck. Pen of Jansen, Martin, Whitlock, Murphy and some other guys that have different arm slots, release points, extensions, windups, calm eyes or whatever else I totally trust Bloom to find.

If everyone is healthy, you can move Sale and Pivetta for prospects to replenish what would‘ve been used to acquire “Scherlander” as well as the hopefully declined QO from Paxton. If guys aren’t healthy going into the off season, the depth is very solid.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

hey. long time reader. long time too intimidated to post. also, y’all are all great.

but going forward, in the “market deficiency” train of thought…should the sox sign “too many” starters nxt yr in the churn of trading off to keep repeating the minors?

like, we’re gonna have sale (i know), whitlock, houck, bello, crawford, plus minors avail for spots/coverage. but is it logic to sign too much and have a glut and maybe have an opportunity to take advantage of this sellers market?

also, loving this season. also, might be day drinkin.

That's....not how the market works. What the market was in the last three weeks is not going to be what the market is this winter, let alone next July. Teams that need starters aren't going to wait for the Sox to buy them up and then make trades. They'll sign them this winter.

And that's not even accounting for the agency of the players themselves. Why are they going to sign with the Sox to be part of a "glut" when other teams have vacancies? I imagine most would take less to have a guaranteed job versus being the #6 or #7 or #8 guy in an overloaded rotation.

 

[Auger34]

This is why I'm one of the people pushing back on a lot of the Bloom criticism -- because people will just say "he sucks" like that's the end of the story. But it probably isn't, Bloom and his scouts and evaluators know a lot more about the game than the average fan. It's complicated and there's a lot of gray area in baseball, but guys with velocity and secondary pitches can be made productive if you can find the right tweak. I'm not going to tell them to dump a guy when I'm not in the building, or even remotely a professional evaluator, because we see over and over again that guys find something and are effective.

I’m sorry but I have to comment on the bolded (you should be familiar because you comment on almost every single post that could be considered anti-Bloom).

If people followed what you seem to be preaching here, then there would be no message board. Every single player, executive, coach in baseball history has known more about the game than the “average fan” and every poster here.
Grady Little, the absolute dope who blew the ALCS and talked about “ghosts” in Yankee Stadium…knew a lot more about the game than any of us.

You’ve established a bullshit baseline to try and stop any criticism of your beloved Bloom…what makes me hate it even more is that it’s true and completely disingenuous

EDIT: and I don’t care about Bloom. I’ve liked some of his moves, hated some of his decisions. I just don’t kowtow to every single thing he does and retroactively change my opinion to fit what he’s done

 

[chrisfont9]

I’m sorry but I have to comment on the bolded (you should be familiar because you comment on almost every single post that could be considered anti-Bloom).

If people followed what you seem to be preaching here, then there would be no message board. Every single player, executive, coach in baseball history has known more about the game than the “average fan” and every poster here.
Grady Little, the absolute dope who blew the ALCS and talked about “ghosts” in Yankee Stadium…knew a lot more about the game than any of us.

You’ve established a bullshit baseline to try and stop any criticism of your beloved Bloom…what makes me hate it even more is that it’s true and completely disingenuous

EDIT: and I don’t care about Bloom. I’ve liked some of his moves, hated some of his decisions. I just don’t kowtow to every single thing he does and retroactively change my opinion to fit what he’s done

Wow. Are we each other’s nemesis? I had no idea anyone was keeping track of anything I’ve said. If you’re ever in seattle, let’s have a beer. I know a terrific place.

I think there is a ton of intelligent conversation here that doesn’t consist of throwing up our hands and saying “they know more than we do so let’s just shut up.”

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

I think there is a ton of intelligent conversation here that doesn’t consist of throwing up our hands and saying “they know more than we do so let’s just shut up.”

You literally just dismissed most of the Bloom criticism as "he sucks!" Why would anyone react to that? Why should I bother to share my thoughts on Bloom's pluses and minuses with you if that's your response?

 

[chrisfont9]

You literally just dismissed most of the Bloom criticism as "he sucks!" Why would anyone react to that? Why should I bother to share my thoughts on Bloom's pluses and minuses with you if that's your response?

Well no, actually most of the bloom criticism of the past week was more like “why is he doing nothing?”

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

Well no, actually most of the bloom criticism of the past week was more like “why is he doing nothing?”

I'm not talking about what other people have said recently. I'm talking about your insulting dismissal of posters who don't agree with you about Bloom.

And for that matter, why aren't posters allowed to ask "why is he doing nothing"?

 

[chrisfont9]

I'm not talking about what other people have said recently. I'm talking about your insulting dismissal of posters who don't agree with you about Bloom.

And for that matter, why aren't posters allowed to ask "why is he doing nothing"?

If you think my criticism was black and white as you describe it, sorry.

and the answer is they can if they want but they have no idea what he is or isn’t doing.

 

[Auger34]

If you think my criticism was black and white as you describe it, sorry.

I’m stumped by this post. I quoted your original post…how is anyone else supposed to describe or read it?

You aren’t my nemesis, I don’t know you personally. However, I do read your posts…and most of them are in response to anything that is slightly negative to Bloom. You subtly, or not so subtly, hint that the poster criticizing Bloom is either a moron, bored, completely influenced by Boston sports radio (aka a moron) or generally less than.

If you don’t believe that to be true., I would love to be proven wrong….but it’s going to have to be of more substance than “wait, I didn’t realize people read my posts!”

 

[Ale Xander]

but they have no idea what he is or isn’t doing.

I mean, yeah, but can't that be said about almost all critiques about almost anything/anyone?

 

[BigSoxFan]

If you think my criticism was black and white as you describe it, sorry.

and the answer is they can if they want but they have no idea what he is or isn’t doing.

Tell me how these words were intended to land. You wrote this:

“This is why I'm one of the people pushing back on a lot of the Bloom criticism -- because people will just say "he sucks" like that's the end of the story.”

The people criticizing Bloom have been laying out their arguments just like those defending him have. You may not agree with the conclusions or evidence given but it’s categorically false to portray the criticism of Bloom as people just saying “he sucks”. This, of course, excludes those doing that in game threads or for snark purposes.

FWIW, I read your post the same way as tbb, Philip Frye, etc. If multiple people are coming to the same conclusion after reading your post, maybe it’s time to consider whether or not you effectively conveyed what you intended to convey.

End of the day, we’re all Sox fans here. None of us should feel like our opinions aren’t valid, at least those where considerable thought and effort were made.

 

[Remagellan]

I'm a Bloom defender, so take this with however big a grain of salt as you wish, but I think he handled the trade deadline perfectly.

This team is in contention for a WC spot, and has a puncher's chance of winning a championship this year if the players expected back this month come back and play up to their talents, and if they sneak into the playoffs, and if they get hot and get lucky with some matchups during the playoffs. All those "ifs" are exactly why he was smart not to go on a buying spree to supplement the talent on this team. But the fact that those "ifs" exist are also why I'm glad he didn't effectively end our season now selling off talent for prospects. I know the success of this ownership group has raised the expectations for what constitutes a successful season, but I, for one, do not think it's "championship or bust" every year. (That's the other guys, let's not forget.) There's nothing wrong with a season in which the team battles for a playoff spot and takes its chances in the playoffs, whether or not either of those things work out.

Much rather be where we are now than where Mets fans are now. Hearing that the team now thinks 2025 is the earliest they'll be in contention must be devastating to their fans given their hopes coming into this season.

 

[mr_smith02]

End of the day, we’re all Sox fans here. None of us should feel like our opinions aren’t valid, at least those where considerable thought and effort were made.

Lock the thread

 

[cantor44]

Couple thoughts.

I've been critical of some of Bloom's work, and appreciative of other stuff. I think he badly missed the past two deadlines. Though I do understand standing pat this year. I wish he had gotten one good SP. Probably could have without jeopardizing "the plan." Though this team is very much a "tweener" - not really good enough to win a WS without some tremendous luck; but also ascendent, maybe a couple of bold off season moves (and the health of the core) from truly contending. So while I wanted to find a deadline present under the tree, in this case I get the hedge.

That said, I'm one of those posters who, despite mixing praise and criticism of Bloom, has received the ire of - for lack of a better phrase - the Bloom True Believers. There's been plenty of unpleasantness to go around from that "camp" , just as tbb345 describes, and damn I think it's good and healthy that this is coming out. A course correction of this dynamic on SoSH would be welcome by many, I know this for a fact.

 

[JM3]

I find the Bloom bashing more frustrating than the Bloom defending because the sheer volume of driveby negativity & vitriol is exhausting sometimes & usually very internally inconsistent & tends to ignore the actual realities of team building.

The combination of people thinking Bloom is awful & has built an awful team... but also that he should have invested a ton at the trade deadline in this group that they frequently bash is confusing.

Like, life is good. Baseball is fun. We're building in a good direction. We've won 4 World Series in the past 2 decades. Let's just have fun & productive conversations.

But the Bloom defending can be too much, too. Not every criticism is of the driveby negativity kind. Some are perfectly reasonable criticisms... even if they aren't fully accurate or I disagree or whatever. & sometimes I agree. No one is infallible, even if I'm generally in agreement with the direction of the franchise.

 

[chrisfont9]

I mean, yeah, but can't that be said about almost all critiques about almost anything/anyone?

No, I think a great deal of what we talk about around here is based on a reasonable amount of information.

 

[chrisfont9]

Tell me how these words were intended to land. You wrote this:

“This is why I'm one of the people pushing back on a lot of the Bloom criticism -- because people will just say "he sucks" like that's the end of the story.”

The people criticizing Bloom have been laying out their arguments just like those defending him have. You may not agree with the conclusions or evidence given but it’s categorically false to portray the criticism of Bloom as people just saying “he sucks”. This, of course, excludes those doing that in game threads or for snark purposes.

FWIW, I read your post the same way as tbb, Philip Frye, etc. If multiple people are coming to the same conclusion after reading your post, maybe it’s time to consider whether or not you effectively conveyed what you intended to convey.

End of the day, we’re all Sox fans here. None of us should feel like our opinions aren’t valid, at least those where considerable thought and effort were made.

Ok, wait…. Actually when I said “he sucks” I was talking about people being dismissive of (in this case) Brasier — the “he” here — when in fact there is often more to the story than simple summations. So this entire review of my posting tendencies is in large part based on a misunderstanding of my original post, which I guess means that it wasn’t well written, but is also a cautionary tale about taking responses to other posts out of context, where maybe it was easier to understand.

Anyway, if people do (somehow) wish to talk about my posting tendencies, then I am sorry for sounding too pointed, I thought that people wouldn’t mind spirited debate but I guess print remains a blunt tool with respect to conveying tone. I will keep that in mind going forward. And for anyone else who agrees or disagrees with me, I reiterate, if you’re in Seattle I know a fine place to have a beer and talk Sox.

 

[jezza1918]

I find the Bloom bashing more frustrating than the Bloom defending because the sheer volume of driveby negativity & vitriol is exhausting sometimes & usually very internally inconsistent & tends to ignore the actual realities of team building.

The combination of people thinking Bloom is awful & has built an awful team... but also that he should have invested a ton at the trade deadline in this group that they frequently bash is confusing.

Like, life is good. Baseball is fun. We're building in a good direction. We've won 4 World Series in the past 2 decades. Let's just have fun & productive conversations.

But the Bloom defending can be too much, too. Not every criticism is of the driveby negativity kind. Some are perfectly reasonable criticisms... even if they aren't fully accurate or I disagree or whatever. & sometimes I agree. No one is infallible, even if I'm generally in agreement with the direction of the franchise.

The bolded really nails the aura around the Bloom bashing for me. Im not really pointing at specific people on this board, because the majority criticize in good faith. But so much of Red Sox nation (and some family members of mine are included here), have been screaming all offseason through like ten days ago that the team sucks. My brother thought they'd win 73 games this year, at the ASB he still thought they wouldn't get above 75...yesterday he was complaining that Bloom didn't do enough at the deadline. He isn't alone in those thoughts, even though it isn't logical whatsoever. I know Im guilty of reading certain Bloom criticisms on here through that lens (and wondering if others might be guilty of the same?), even though I know most posters are criticizing with actual logic.
That said, I do find the "he has no plan" type arguments tiresome and annoying...and Id say the same for anyone out there who defends Bloom to no end. It almost mirrors our politics these days, people have picked sides and seemingly dug their heels in.
I wouldnt go so far as to say "lock the thread" as @mr_smith02 said, but I think this quote is something we should all remember a bit more often.

End of the day, we’re all Sox fans here. None of us should feel like our opinions aren’t valid, at least those where considerable thought and effort were made.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Ok, wait…. Actually when I said “he sucks” I was talking about people being dismissive of (in this case) Brasier — the “he” here — when in fact there is often more to the story than simple summations. So this entire review of my posting tendencies is in large part based on a misunderstanding of my original post, which I guess means that it wasn’t well written, but is also a cautionary tale about taking responses to other posts out of context, where maybe it was easier to understand.

Anyway, if people do (somehow) wish to talk about my posting tendencies, then I am sorry for sounding too pointed, I thought that people wouldn’t mind spirited debate but I guess print remains a blunt tool with respect to conveying tone. I will keep that in mind going forward. And for anyone else who agrees or disagrees with me, I reiterate, if you’re in Seattle I know a fine place to have a beer and talk Sox.

Yeah, nothing against you. I think it's hard to know all of the context of a singular post. I think all of our arguments are often more nuanced than we convey sometimes. For instance, I'm not entirely sure I know what Bloom's ultimate plan is aside from building up assets on the farm and hopefully providing a steady stream of cheap talent, presumably to offset some larger FA expenditures, and then maybe using some of that excess to find cost-controlled MLB talent. I mean, that's what almost every GM wants to do outside of the GFIN Dombrowski types. Chaim hasn't been overly aggressive the last few deadlines, which I've found a little disappointing given how close they are to a playoff spot but I'll get over it. Right now, on the farm, Rafaela looks like he's close to MLB. Mayer is struggling in AA so he's probably a year+ away (although with prospects like him, that can shift quickly), Bleis just had a wasted injury season and is several years away, Yorke is having a decent rebound season, and Roman has been a revelation but is still in A+ ball. I know there are other guys on the prospect list who could force the issue a bit.

Thus, the cavalry is still probably 1-2 years away from arriving. In the meantime, the MLB team is fighting for a playoff spot but I'd guess they fall short this year. That would make 3 of 4 years without a playoff appearance, which would be disappointing for a major market team like the Sox. This offseason, I'd argue they'd need some "splash" signings/trades to bolster the MLB team. My hope is that Chaim has the green light and job security to execute on that. It'll be interesting to see it play out.

My largest frustration with the team isn't even Chaim, it's the stupid, moronic base running and poor defense that continues to plague us and cost us games. Obviously, Chaim needs to address this deficiency this offseason but it's hard with entrenched guys like Devers, Casas, and Yoshida who are all pretty sub-par on defense.

 

[tims4wins]

Yeah, nothing against you. I think it's hard to know all of the context of a singular post. I think all of our arguments are often more nuanced than we convey sometimes. For instance, I'm not entirely sure I know what Bloom's ultimate plan is aside from building up assets on the farm and hopefully providing a steady stream of cheap talent, presumably to offset some larger FA expenditures, and then maybe using some of that excess to find cost-controlled MLB talent. I mean, that's what almost every GM wants to do outside of the GFIN Dombrowski types. Chaim hasn't been overly aggressive the last few deadlines, which I've found a little disappointing given how close they are to a playoff spot but I'll get over it. Right now, on the farm, Rafaela looks like he's close to MLB. Mayer is struggling in AA so he's probably a year+ away (although with prospects like him, that can shift quickly), Bleis just had a wasted injury season and is several years away, Yorke is having a decent rebound season, and Roman has been a revelation but is still in A+ ball. I know there are other guys on the prospect list who could force the issue a bit.

Thus, the cavalry is still probably 1-2 years away from arriving. In the meantime, the MLB team is fighting for a playoff spot but I'd guess they fall short this year. That would make 3 of 4 years without a playoff appearance, which would be disappointing for a major market team like the Sox. This offseason, I'd argue they'd need some "splash" signings/trades to bolster the MLB team. My hope is that Chaim has the green light and job security to execute on that. It'll be interesting to see it play out.

My largest frustration with the team isn't even Chaim, it's the stupid, moronic base running and poor defense that continues to plague us and cost us games. Obviously, Chaim needs to address this deficiency this offseason but it's hard with entrenched guys like Devers, Casas, and Yoshida who are all pretty sub-par on defense.

Good post. I'm excited to see what 2024 brings. If we're saying the same thing in a year's time about 2025 then I'll be less postive.

One nit: if they miss the playoffs this year, that will make 4 out of 5 (but 3 out of 4 in the Bloom era).

 

[jezza1918]

Good post. I'm excited to see what 2024 brings. If we're saying the same thing in a year's time about 2025 then I'll be less postive.

One nit: if they miss the playoffs this year, that will make 4 out of 5 (but 3 out of 4 in the Bloom era).

Not that I think it gives them a pass, because I agree missing 3/4 in the Bloom era would be disappointing, but our "rivals" (cmon, 4 world series to 1 this millenium) recently missed playoffs 3/4 years in the bridge between the Cano/Jeter era to the Judge/Sanchez (lol) era. And the rays, obviously market wise it's not hte same but clearly they have been very successful, recently missed the playoffs 5 years in a row. Just thought it was worth pointing out.

edit: to add, my heart will be disappointed if they miss it 3/4 seasons, while my head is understanding of the path/direction team is taking

 

[InsideTheParker]

I don't care at all if people hate Bloom. I do sometimes worry that fan expressions of disapproval might move the front office to do things like the $300 million long-term contract to Devers, which I think is already questionable, though I know that's a minority point of view.
What gives me the most hope about the future is the development of players like Casas and Duran, and the justification of the front office faith in them. The Masa contract is another example of management savvy. Likewise the signings of Turner and Duvall. The inability, so far, of the Sox to develop enough pitching, in the Rays manner, or to use them most effectively, is still frustrating. Why is Brasier pitching much better for the Dodgers? Apparently coaching makes a difference. The Sox pitching coach team should be replaced or somehow rewired in the off- season.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Not that I think it gives them a pass, because I agree missing 3/4 in the Bloom era would be disappointing, but our "rivals" (cmon, 4 world series to 1 this millenium) recently missed playoffs 3/4 years in the bridge between the Cano/Jeter era to the Judge/Sanchez (lol) era. And the rays, obviously market wise it's not hte same but clearly they have been very successful, recently missed the playoffs 5 years in a row. Just thought it was worth pointing out.

edit: to add, my heart will be disappointed if they miss it 3/4 seasons, while my head is understanding of the path/direction team is taking

That brings the conversation back to: is it better to totally miss and get a top pick or to play meaningful baseball in August and September but miss the playoffs by just a game or two? I think it’s the latter… but it’ll kinda hurt more for those games that coulda-should been won….

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

That brings the conversation back to: is it better to totally miss and get a top pick or to play meaningful baseball in August and September but miss the playoffs by just a game or two? I think it’s the latter… but it’ll kinda hurt more for those games that coulda-should been won….

That's a tough question: totally whiffing on a season leads to feeling that the year was a complete waste which is no fun for anyone (2012 was misery) but missing by a game or two is going to keep me thinking about dropping 2 of 3 in Oakland for a very long time.

 

[jezza1918]

That brings the conversation back to: is it better to totally miss and get a top pick or to play meaningful baseball in August and September but miss the playoffs by just a game or two? I think it’s the latter… but it’ll kinda hurt more for those games that coulda-should been won….

That's a tough question: totally whiffing on a season leads to feeling that the year was a complete waste which is no fun for anyone (2012 was misery) but missing by a game or two is going to keep me thinking about dropping 2 of 3 in Oakland for a very long time.

Great question, and great response. I definitely think it's the latter...but some of that is colored by the perspective of being a fan of the most successful franchise in baseball the last 20 years. If we were still amidst "the curse," and miss by a game or two, that Oakland series would likely keep me up at night the entire offseason. As it stands, Ill be perturbed for a bit before cracking open a Southern Tier Pumpking (we're in october here). Some of it is of course colored by the perspective that the organization as a whole is trending in the right direction. If this were the major league roster, with a barren pipeline, Id probably vote for a total miss or two of a season.

 

[moondog80]

That brings the conversation back to: is it better to totally miss and get a top pick or to play meaningful baseball in August and September but miss the playoffs by just a game or two? I think it’s the latter… but it’ll kinda hurt more for those games that coulda-should been won….

I'd much rather miss the playoffs by a few games with big steps forward taken by Casas, Bello, Duran, and Yoshida than have those guys suck and win 68 games.