Trade Deadline Approach
- Thread starter tims4wins
- Start date
If the goal is to win as many WS as possible, you maximize the future window by selling.
If the goal is to win this year, you buy.
How does standing pat help accomplish the goal of winning as many WS as possible?
If they traded Paxton for the Verlander package that would be malpractice?
Pretty sure we’d be having a no pants party.
they did exactly that in 2021 with Schwarber, who was injured at the time the sox got him..... and shockingly the Boston media ripped the trade...
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/red-sox-acquire-kyle-schwarber.34176/
So I dont give hoot what the media thinks, since they are just in it for click and engagement... that goes even more so for "sports talk radio" which is a cancer on society
If that was offered, they would have done it. No one offered the value of 2 months of Paxton + the value of the QO for 2 months of Paxton, so they didn't sell Paxton.
Agree. Chaim knows better that to empty the farm for a guy on a heater. And Snell was atrocious for like 6 weeks earlier this year.
Remember this?
You don’t sell because the team is pretty good and has a lot of in house help on the way. Maybe they get hot and you get like a 95th percentile outcome out of the returning players.
You don’t buy aggressively because the odds are against you and selling assets to marginally help your odds is stupid.
There was not a move they could have made today that guaranteed a playoff spot.
It all comes down the the players on the roster and the players coming back. It’s on them and the front office gave them the opportunity to go get it.
Ok so the Sox acquired a MI - a position of immediate need - for dirt cheap. The guy they got has done nothing this year in just 20 games but had over 3 bWAR the previous two seasons. And the guy is under control for two more seasons.
And they got a reliever who has come in and pitched twice for them in the last three days.
That’s not tons, but it’s certainly not nothing.
And they got a reliever who has come in and pitched twice for them in the last three days.
That’s not tons, but it’s certainly not nothing.
That move was a classic Bloom move. Hindsight makes everyone think it was great, but they needed a 1b at the time and he found a failed catcher-turned-of on the cheap to shoehorn into the 1b position. Value!
This year is more of the same from the last few years.
With that said, I do believe the “plan” had always been 2024+ so this tracks.
I just don’t like missing an opportunity for the playoff run
Didn't the fact that you think we'd be having a no pants party suggest to you that the question you're asking is bullshit?
Punting would’ve been crazy given their puncher’s chance to sneak in the postseason a year early, especially considering how well they’ve played the good teams. It’s also a bit premature to go all in this year given they’re not favorites and the seemingly wide open window on the horizon.
In success or failure, I think the biggest value gained in dancing with the one who brung you is the experience Bello, Casas, Duran, Winckowski, Crawford and Yoshida gain by having the pressure of a playoff push placed squarely on their shoulders. If they pull off some Cinderella magic, beautiful! If not, they’ll still have a much better idea of what it takes these coming seasons when expectations on them will be much higher.
So yeah, I’m thinking small improvements around the margins while mostly standing pat was the right call.
In success or failure, I think the biggest value gained in dancing with the one who brung you is the experience Bello, Casas, Duran, Winckowski, Crawford and Yoshida gain by having the pressure of a playoff push placed squarely on their shoulders. If they pull off some Cinderella magic, beautiful! If not, they’ll still have a much better idea of what it takes these coming seasons when expectations on them will be much higher.
So yeah, I’m thinking small improvements around the margins while mostly standing pat was the right call.
The FO would be having one too. They would have traded Paxton for a haul. Clearly they didn't feel like the offers were better than what he will provide for the rest of this season + what the QO will yield
I get that. I don’t get why a 40 YO Verlander >> 34 YO Paxton. Control can’t trump 6 years of age by that much.
Well, if Turner is hurt more than d2d, they probably need Dalbec. But he will probably be freed this off season.
Well, there is talent too. A 39 year old Verlander won the Cy Young award. Paxton has had one terrific month in 4 years
How about quality on top of it? Verlander is better historically, better currently, playoff tested, and whatever one makes of the age difference he has pitched 200 more innings that Paxton in the last two years. If you ignore age the control + performance makes the comparison kind of laughable.
Nobody is trading the Verlander package for a handful of starts from an inferior player.
again, I don’t think this is true. Paxton could have been traded for a haul of prospects….but there would have been a hole in the rotation.
Chaim made the decision to ride with this group and see what run they could go on. He could be proven right or he could be proven wrong but there was much more of a decision on Paxton than what you are laying out
Lots of people argued for this approach. Lots of people predicted this outcome.
I like the move for Urias; It's not clear to me if he has two or three more years of control, but one of the keys at this deadline was to possibly upgrade at one of the few easy positions to upgrade [2B]. If he can show some competence in AAA, he has a great chance of being helpful or getting a shot later this year. If the Red Sox are committed to keeping Arroyo, Chang and Reyes, Urias lets them wait until 9/1 to add him as rosters expand.
I think the only disappointment is that we didn't add a league average arm or two that can add some innings. I'm not talking about a front of the line starter, but it might be nice to see if we can upgrade on guys like Jacques, Ort, Garza, Llovera etc. for some bulk innings. I suppose Walter's success and the potential return of Sale, Houck, Whitlock obfuscate that, but I'd personally have preferred a veteran depth arm. For the price the Orioles paid on Jack Flaherty, I'd have kicked those tires. Same with the price on Ryan Yarbrough to LAD. Both of those moves means you could have a legitimate starter in four of your five starts and give the pen a little bit more flexibility should Paxton, Crawford or Bello struggle. I feel like we are again putting all the eggs in the injury return basket when the cost of some insurance was not prohibitive.
Beyond that, I'm really not sure what else they could do. Schreiber, Martin, Jansen, Winckowski, Bernadino and Murphy are pen staples at this point, same with Pivetta. I'd be nice if the bottom of the pen [Bleier, Jacques, Llovera] would've received some competition, as I've seen enough of Garza at this point, but perhaps we want to see more of these folks.
I think the only disappointment is that we didn't add a league average arm or two that can add some innings. I'm not talking about a front of the line starter, but it might be nice to see if we can upgrade on guys like Jacques, Ort, Garza, Llovera etc. for some bulk innings. I suppose Walter's success and the potential return of Sale, Houck, Whitlock obfuscate that, but I'd personally have preferred a veteran depth arm. For the price the Orioles paid on Jack Flaherty, I'd have kicked those tires. Same with the price on Ryan Yarbrough to LAD. Both of those moves means you could have a legitimate starter in four of your five starts and give the pen a little bit more flexibility should Paxton, Crawford or Bello struggle. I feel like we are again putting all the eggs in the injury return basket when the cost of some insurance was not prohibitive.
Beyond that, I'm really not sure what else they could do. Schreiber, Martin, Jansen, Winckowski, Bernadino and Murphy are pen staples at this point, same with Pivetta. I'd be nice if the bottom of the pen [Bleier, Jacques, Llovera] would've received some competition, as I've seen enough of Garza at this point, but perhaps we want to see more of these folks.
Exactly. You give yourself a chance to see what happens this year, with a pretty good team, without weakening your future position.
Doing nothing (sorry Urias) is more or less ideal. I like what’s being built - a core that will hopefully last for quite a while - and being around the margins this year is gravy. What they have is competitive and entertaining, and in-season help is on the way in the form of proven returning players. Onward, etc
Being the last team into the tournament is not that much of a long shot. Washington and Atlanta were both mediocre teams by stats on paper that nonetheless managed to hoist the trophy.
Who is the best player on the team? I bet we wouldn't all agree on that one. Also, what players respond when asked questions by sports reporters doesn't necessarily represent deeply felt emotions.
What’s the list of teams that desperately traded their way into the playoffs, lost anyway, and screwed themselves long term? Guess it’s more than two.
To me it’s easy to know how Devers feels.
“Everyone knows what we need,” Devers told The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham on Sunday. “Hopefully we can get that in the next few days. We can’t control that as players. All we can do is give 100 percent on the field. But we need pitching.”
“This year is a much different story than last year,” Devers said. “We weren’t in a position to compete last year but this year we are.”
We’re getting good players back,” Devers said. “I think we need a little help beyond that.”
“We would like them to reward us with a few good players coming in before the deadline. I think that’s something we’re looking forward to.”
https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2023/07/31/rafael-devers-chaim-bloom-trade-rumors-pitchers/
I'm slightly annoyed Bloom didn't sell some parts but wow they avoided a bullet here. Snell sucks. Guy is a mirage and has been for most of his career. 4 bb/9 rate just isn't happening in the AL East unless he would somehow continue to have a high 80 lob rate.
Very glad they didn't do that.
Gotta have someone prominent to lowball and lose to a West Coast team during the off-season or it just wouldn't feel right.
I've never been more certain of anything in my life than I am that Chaim did not offer that package for a Snell rental.
I could only see it if Kim was included too. But even then, that doesn't sound accurate. Flies in the face of everything he has been saying re: rentals vs cost controlled.
I guess we'll see if he's someone they try to sign this off season.
"Reports indicate" is the tell that this is bullshit. That term is too slippery.
Prolly what’s most important isn’t what the “media” or the “fans” response to what Bloom did or didn’t do, it’s what the players feel. I bet they are pretty stoked that Bloom valued them enough to keep them all around (sorry Kike). We will find out tonight in Seattle I suppose.
Frankly, if Chaim didn’t have any faith in this team’s chances then he would’ve sold. He didn’t, so he must believe they’re capable of making a run.
It’s not hard to figure out who has been a fan for 30-35+ years and who became a fan while the team has won titles every 4-5 seasons in threads like this.
What major league team has improved their long term outlook more the past 8 months than the Red Sox? Be specific
It is not ok to be both a long time fan and be critical of what Bloom is doing?
Oh, cool, we’ve reached the fan purity test portion of the discussion. FWIW, I’ve been a fan for 30+ years and wanted to see a more aggressive approach. Guess I broke your algorithm.