So if he is on in week 1 and cut week three, that counts as being on an NFL roster by week 8, right?
This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots
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Very fair point, I guess the 2022 team is the true outlier considering the QBs they faced.
Maybe, on the other hand 2 of that team's wins were with their own 3rd stringer (a 4th round rookie at that).... so I think it's just how the NFL is. They were mediocre for 3 years, then bad this year.
I am not enamored with Vrabel as next Pats coach but his first two OCs left for head coaching jobs, no? That seems to reflect well on him, if anything. And he then had the added difficulty of replacing those guys.
It's an interesting question. Neither of them was his guy (Smith was a holdover from the previous staff in particular) but his guy that he brought in as an assistant and promoted has been terrible since Smith left. So one of the questions would be... do we trust him to pick OCs, or did he inherit good ones and fail when asked to provide his own, and if not, would he be willing to work with whomever the GM chooses for him. Seems unlikely given how much they stressed "collaboration" and staffing in the explanation for his firing.
To me, these are the salient points Kraft is considering in regarding firing BB...
1) Failure to develop Mac Jones after a strong rookie season (I believe Kraft sees this as an organizational failure. He was a huge Mac believer).
2) Failure to maintain consistency on offensive line and failure to address the needs of the tackle position through the draft and free agency
3) Failure to draft/develop offensive weapons
4) Failure to develop innovative offensive game plan
5) There is someone out there Kraft sees as a perfect fit to replace him
Here are the reasons to keep him...
1) Obvious point: Overall track record still very strong
2) Defensive strategy and personnel is strong
3) Draft this past year was much stronger than other recent drafts
4) Has a chance at a quick turnaround with high draft pick(s) and money to spend in free agency
5) Talent has gone down in general across NFL with increased mediocrity
6) He's still under contract/who out there is better?
Personally, I am not on the Vrabel bandwagon. I think if Bill goes they need to target somebody younger, with no ties to the organization, and who is seen as having an innovative offensive mind. No idea who that is though.
1) Failure to develop Mac Jones after a strong rookie season (I believe Kraft sees this as an organizational failure. He was a huge Mac believer).
2) Failure to maintain consistency on offensive line and failure to address the needs of the tackle position through the draft and free agency
3) Failure to draft/develop offensive weapons
4) Failure to develop innovative offensive game plan
5) There is someone out there Kraft sees as a perfect fit to replace him
Here are the reasons to keep him...
1) Obvious point: Overall track record still very strong
2) Defensive strategy and personnel is strong
3) Draft this past year was much stronger than other recent drafts
4) Has a chance at a quick turnaround with high draft pick(s) and money to spend in free agency
5) Talent has gone down in general across NFL with increased mediocrity
6) He's still under contract/who out there is better?
Personally, I am not on the Vrabel bandwagon. I think if Bill goes they need to target somebody younger, with no ties to the organization, and who is seen as having an innovative offensive mind. No idea who that is though.
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we've agreed to terms. any action on an active roster by week 8 would be a win for me. And likely a loss for whatever team that activity is for...
No worries. Just a curious 3rd party query. Wanted to make sure ""by" wasn't confused with "through".
I already have some action in this forum and for the life of me I cant remember with who or what the bet was.
@Deathofthebambino. Thank you for the positive comment about my post. I think that one of the points you made really reinforces my opinion about the skillset of a HC. At one point the NEP were the most seamless operation in the NFL with highly competent and trusted personnel that Bill could rely on. The talent drain of players should have been expected given the draft position of the last 20 but it is the brain drain that he been most disruptive to the efficiency of the NEP operation. Just using the names you cited, Weis, McDaniels, Pioli, Caserio, Adams, Daboll, Flores, Crennel, Scarneccia, Vrabel and Mayo. Those were folks (and there are others) who Bill could rely on and allowed him to use his incredible knowledge of the game to be able to oversee all parts of the operation. Interestingly, one of the points I made in my post was that HC requires a more comprehensive skill set than the rest of the organization. Of all the people just named, which would you designate as a prime candidate for HC. None have truly distinguished themselves which is why I laugh whenever I hear about the terrible "results" of the BB coaching tree. That's not what they were cut out for They possess different skillsets but are extemely valuable because they are so competent in their own area of expertise. And their competence allowed Bill the time needed to do his organizational and administrative tasks that led to 6 rings. That has changed remarkably, as Bill no longer has the staff to free up his time and, frankly, may be overwhelmed by this condition.
@JosinaAnderson
As of this morning, the #Patriots are continuing to weave through talks on potential new personnel additions —as their postseason process continues, per league source. They understand the carousel is still churning, regardless.
As of this morning, the #Patriots are continuing to weave through talks on potential new personnel additions —as their postseason process continues, per league source. They understand the carousel is still churning, regardless.
Yes, the BB as Doc Savage model. Here's what I posted in this thread on Sunday:
Does the lack of a statement of confidence from Kraft suggest they are negotiating with teams that want Belichick?
No, you don't give a vote of confidence to a guy who brought you six championships. You say either he's still the coach or he's not.
Meanwhile, as has been explained multiple times in this thread, a "trade" for Belichick is the least likely scenario here.
There's no rush to do anything. For one thing, there are several playoff teams who have coordinators who would be of interest to coach-less teams. For another, any team "acquiring" Belichick would still have to comply with the Rooney Rule -- heck even the Raiders will have to comply with the Rooney Rule should they want to elevate Pierce from interim to permanent status.
A team hold two sham interviews with coaches of color, then swinging an immediate "trade" for Belichick would be an awful look.
The lack of noise from Patriot Place most likely means that these are unlike any other discussions that any other team in the NFL would face, with the exception of Seattle. It was never going to be a Black Monday firing. If this goes into next week, after the first round of playoff games, it's more a sign that he's staying.
Maybe he will get let go. Maybe he won't. But until then, both he and the team are proceeding, as they should, as though he remains the coach.
Until he isn't.
Sure they negotiate to talk to him and Kraft grants permission. I understand that. I assume teams are calling.
If they wanted to keep him and put this all to bed then they could easily say so. The fact that they are not is either a commendable power play with the media (you get nothing!) or suggests strongly they they are still considering their options and he may be on his way out. Given the public statements last year on coordinators, etc. I think we'll get a statement even if they decide to keep the status quo.
Which is why I quoted DVOA, which factors opponents in (though doesn't make any adjustments for injuries/QB changes). And if anything the Pats have underperformed their DVOA ratings over this period.
Again, it's just one data point, but it doesn't support your thesis that their results have been soft.
I don't care enough to try to analyse whether the Pats have been lucky, neutral or unlucky with opposition QBs over the past 4 years - seems like a lot of manual effort - but I'd have thought that's getting to be a long enough period that the effects are unlikely to be extreme.
The Rooney rule also applies to the Pats hiring Mayo. They still have to interview from outside the organization.
I was wondering about this. How did the Broncos deal with the Rooney rule when they traded for Payton?
They interviewed a bunch of candidates including Sean Payton. Same as any team.
There is no such thing as a trade of a coach is the real answer. You grant permission for the team to interview the coach you have under contract. If they then select that coach you get compensation as mutually agreed on (usually agreed conditionally as part of granting permission).
Assuming the coach is willing to interview and agrees to participate in that process.
It doesn't seem like BB is interested in leaving New England or making that process easier for Kraft, but who knows.
It doesn't seem like BB is interested in leaving New England or making that process easier for Kraft, but who knows.
Well sure, which is why many people have noted that getting compensation for Bill is unlikely to happen.
Yeah, sorry. I know you understand. That follow-up was for someone else's benefit based on earlier discussion.
Well no matter how many times it it pointed out that it is unlikely that they are getting any compensation for BB for the reasons you mentioned, someone bring s up that they might be negotiating compensation. So, keep saying it I guess?
My sense, based on nothing other than gut, is that if BB out was a done deal in RK's mind some time ago (as many have intimated), then he would have announced it by now.
I believe that BB is staying and that the lack of announcements is based on both of them wanting to have whatever changes they want for next year -- new OC, new GM-type, etc -- in place before making those announcements.
I believe that BB is staying and that the lack of announcements is based on both of them wanting to have whatever changes they want for next year -- new OC, new GM-type, etc -- in place before making those announcements.
I'm not surprised that BB and the Patriots are tight lipped. It's hard to imagine that either of them enjoyed the breathless reporting of the Glazer report on Sunday.
What I'm a bit surprised about is that we haven't had any leaks from any other places. The possibility of Bill not coaching the Patriots is out there. So I assume that is leading to some calls. I would have to think that someone has reached out to the Patriots to find out about his potential availability. And if that's happening, whomever is calling is being told something. It could be "this is premature." It could be, "we won't discuss this right now." It could be, "he's not available." It could be lots of things in between.
Maybe it's understood that calls like that are highly confidential, but the way that these billionaires leak shit and talk shit I'm kind of surprised there hasn't been some information floating to reporters from outside 1 Patriots Place.
What I'm a bit surprised about is that we haven't had any leaks from any other places. The possibility of Bill not coaching the Patriots is out there. So I assume that is leading to some calls. I would have to think that someone has reached out to the Patriots to find out about his potential availability. And if that's happening, whomever is calling is being told something. It could be "this is premature." It could be, "we won't discuss this right now." It could be, "he's not available." It could be lots of things in between.
Maybe it's understood that calls like that are highly confidential, but the way that these billionaires leak shit and talk shit I'm kind of surprised there hasn't been some information floating to reporters from outside 1 Patriots Place.
At this point, they could have already agreed that he's staying and they're just working on what 2024 looks like. No more or less likely than any other scenario.
It does seem like there is a good chance that BB is staying.
I think is is possible that the Krafts are trying to convince BB to give up final say on GM decisions (as opposed to just getting more help) and will will decide on whether or not to retain him based on how that goes.
I don't know that they want final season Belichick making all the calls on a draft with such high picks at stake.
Discussions like that could take a little time, though not beyond this week, I think.
If it has already been decided that BB is staying, I'm surprised that at least a small annoucement hasn't been made with more details to be provided later.
I think is is possible that the Krafts are trying to convince BB to give up final say on GM decisions (as opposed to just getting more help) and will will decide on whether or not to retain him based on how that goes.
I don't know that they want final season Belichick making all the calls on a draft with such high picks at stake.
Discussions like that could take a little time, though not beyond this week, I think.
If it has already been decided that BB is staying, I'm surprised that at least a small annoucement hasn't been made with more details to be provided later.
If they keep Bill, just keep him at GM too. I mean, if he gives up final say in personnel, there's two things that could happen: the first is they bring in a former Bill guy at GM and nothing fundamentally changes, the second is they bring someone from the outside with their own views and scouting system and I honestly can't envision that relationship being anything other than a clusterfuck. To me it's a non-argument, we get too caught up in this "the king's two bodies" stuff. Bill is Bill, either keep him or make an actual change.
Just imagine the Patriots draft a wide receiver in the first round that is explosive, but can't block a lick, but the new GM loves him and deems him a fit. What, is Bill going to give the guy playing time even though he doesn't do the things he believes a full time receiver should? Is that guy not getting drafted in the first place because Bill still has a seat at the table and it's a "collaborative relationship"? The flaws he has in drafting skill position players are an extension of how he views the game of football, not just an inability to judge what guys do and don't do well. He puts a lot of value on stuff that doesn't matter all that much in today's game. And if you give him a player that doesn't conform to his rigid standards for that specific position, he also won't utilize him properly.
Yes, a lot of coaches are and have been successful under a similar arrangement. I don't think a lot of coaches have Bill's mentality, nor have they been used to 30+ years of full control.
Just imagine the Patriots draft a wide receiver in the first round that is explosive, but can't block a lick, but the new GM loves him and deems him a fit. What, is Bill going to give the guy playing time even though he doesn't do the things he believes a full time receiver should? Is that guy not getting drafted in the first place because Bill still has a seat at the table and it's a "collaborative relationship"? The flaws he has in drafting skill position players are an extension of how he views the game of football, not just an inability to judge what guys do and don't do well. He puts a lot of value on stuff that doesn't matter all that much in today's game. And if you give him a player that doesn't conform to his rigid standards for that specific position, he also won't utilize him properly.
Yes, a lot of coaches are and have been successful under a similar arrangement. I don't think a lot of coaches have Bill's mentality, nor have they been used to 30+ years of full control.
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This is a very interesting post and something I have thought a few times when listening to Mike Lombardi talk about how Bill wants to build a football team and what he values.
Past 5 years the NFL has really pivoted to star QB's and more offense and that doesn't seem to be BB's cup of tea
I kinda think that's obvious - if Belichick is staying, the speculation becomes all about what power Belichick loses, what he retains, who's coming aboard, who's staying, etc. etc, ad nauseum.
Why not just, you know, get as many ducks lined up as possible and kill as much noise as you can?
The real irony is the 2001-2018 Patriots only finished the year with a higher defensive than offensive DVOA once (2003).
It’s been all of 72 hours since the last game ended. I know it already feels like a lifetime for those who follow this team obsessively, but obviously it really hasn’t been that long.
I don’t think we can glean any insight into what the ultimate decision is going to be because nothing has been announced by Wednesday afternoon.
I don’t think we can glean any insight into what the ultimate decision is going to be because nothing has been announced by Wednesday afternoon.
I'm not sure when his contract runs out. But I dont think he'll ever be a lame duck. He'll always have an extra year. Or he'll announce that it's his last game to "Tracy on the sidelines" as he jogs back onto the field after halftime of his last game.
Basically the Terry Glenn scenario, which exposed a rift between Parcells, Grier and Kraft. I think Kraft learned a lot from that experience, which makes me think he's unlikely to do it here. Much more likely that they bring in new personnel people to provide BB with new/better info on which he bases decisions.
Now would a great time to send a press release relieving BB of his duties with Saban retiring and Carroll pushed out.
BB staying and Nick joining him for his final year in Foxborough would be something. Maybe reunite the crew from Cleveland 95.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKCgXr3roTE
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKCgXr3roTE
I agree that there can be organizational challenges if Bill is named to be coach only. However, the pushback I have with the above is that the drafted WRs that perform poorly don’t get playing time. Seemed like the coaches noticed early on that Harry was a bust. And Thornton hasn’t really earned playing time. Douglas has performed well and did earn playing time, and he certainly cannot block.
I don’t see him refusing to play a WR that he did not draft.
This same point was made by Evan Lazar on his podcast a couple of weeks ago, and makes sense. It's hard to envision a BB coached team where he doesn't have the final say as GM.
While this is 100% true, things happen every day that are hard to envision until they happen.
Basically all the scenarios in play now were hard to envision at one point or another not too long ago.
I disagree. Part of the meaning of the rule is to dial back cronyism and hiring of buddies (resounding success, obviously), so the Pats hiring a dude who is already in the building is exactly the sort of thing that goes against it. The rule is partly in place to get people interviews, increased visibility/viability, and help them be viewed as candidates rather than being shut out of the process as teams just hire the guy they want and don't bother to talk to anyone else. Giving other candidates a chance to see the interview process (and be seen doing so) strengthens their careers to some extent, and every once in a while results in a surprise hire when eyes are opened.
Perhaps, but if a coach of color already in the building is the choice of ownership, why go the process of bringing in two others -- on the chance that one of them will a better candidate -- while you could lose the guy you want as he interviews elsewhere? There's often already an optics problem with what are seen as sham interviews; why add to the problem?
It's also good business to interview a diverse pool of applicants. You get to pick the brains of people outside your building, you can ask them what they think of your players, and what they think of what your coaches did with that talent.
I'm ok with him having the final say. He just needs more people giving him the options.
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