This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots
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Perhaps I am old. But I am surprised by the lack of people who would not let Bill keep coming back and do what he will. We got maybe the greatest twenty year run in sports history; I'd like at least one of the two main characters to retire with the franchise. I am simply not bothered by the losing; it would be more fun to win, naturally, but, our cup ran so far over for so long, i'll be fine if it isn't refilled for a while.
If I were Kraft, I'd sit down with BB and say something like "You can coach til your dead, results be damned. But we need some new blood in the building especially on the player evaluation side" and figure it out from there.
If they let him go, I won't stomp my feet or act like it's some betrayal. But in the process they will formally end the era that will, by default, always be the time I cared about the team most. Apparently I'm far from the majority here but I don't think I'm alone.
If I were Kraft, I'd sit down with BB and say something like "You can coach til your dead, results be damned. But we need some new blood in the building especially on the player evaluation side" and figure it out from there.
If they let him go, I won't stomp my feet or act like it's some betrayal. But in the process they will formally end the era that will, by default, always be the time I cared about the team most. Apparently I'm far from the majority here but I don't think I'm alone.
In the SoSH poll on the 14th 71% said BB should be the coach next season. It's a loud minority who continue to post the same complaints over and over here.
Its also the certainty of the posts around this topic. The public really has so little real information about the teams we follow - things that impact our own day to day lives like interpersonal dynamics, office politics, etc etc - that its impossible to diagnose problems in a good faith manner from the outside.
Add in the ageism angle and it really feels like people are projecting their own experiences - maybe they have an older boss who is set in their ways and seemingly not adjusting to new techniques - on to the Patriots when we have no idea what's really going on.
If the local reporters, who are presumably around the team a lot more than the fans don't have a great handle on organizational dynamics how do people here get so confident in their takes about what needs to be done?
For the record, I want the Patriots to contend again as quickly as possible. I simply do not know whether BB or someone else is the best person to get them back to that level.
I'm with you one hundred percent. Between this issue and the idea that a top 3 draft pick ensures a franchise QB, I feel like history lessons are often in order
The era is going to end eventually, though. The dynasty was incredible- something we were fortunate to all experience in some small way that was important to us, but it’s over. So much of the argument to keep BB forever seems to be based on nostalgia.
Lol.
Jimmy G is a broken down shell of himself. He can't stay healthy. The last thing Belichick needs is a guy held together by duct tape and Elmers glue.
Two more Bill Belichick drafted QBs names starters around the league this week. I wonder if he has more starting QBs drafted than any other GM
I expect 95 percent of Patriots fans would be fine with Bill continuing as coach if he was seriously willing to overhaul the player evaluation side of the operation and bring in a quality GM. The general assumption is that BB will be unwilling to give this up, hence the vocal minority of people willing to move on (myself included).
Much of it derives from uncertainty. We see 6 to 10 coaches in a 32-team league fired EVERY year, usually with the GMs that brought them in not far behind. The top teams' OCs/DCs get HC jobs. Some of them are Kyle Shanahan. Some of them are Brandon Staley. Meanwhile, we've had BB coaching to above-average, if not top tier, performance for most of a 20 year run. This year is the first truly terrible season, and most blame it on the roster, not the coaching. Will BB allow more cooks in the kitchen, or indeed, to hand over the shopping to someone else entirely? Is there someone out there in player personnel land that he trusts to bring in for that role? If not, he's gotta go, as he's clearly deficient in his offense-side choices.
He seems to be able to pick good players for the defensive side of the roster. And, in order to pick the players and create an effective defense in 2023 (which I think most generally agree he's done), doesn't he have to have a pretty good understanding of the offenses he's trying to stop?
I think it's certainly an interesting question. BB has always seemed to zig when the rest of the league zagged. On offense, he was kind of ahead of the curve when the rules changed and gave the edge to passing games, bringing in Randy Moss and airing it out, but he also had a string of really, really good OC's to fall back on. I think it's hard for us to realize that Charlie Weis was only 44 years old when he became OC for the Pats (after being the OC in NY at 40), McDaniels was named OC at like 30 years old..Guys like Daboll were in their mid 20's.
And this isn't an age thing, it's more of a young guys seeing the game in the present because that's their reality. 15-20 years later, if those guys are still coaching and making personnel decisions the way they always have, and not changing with the game, the game will pass them by. And I believe that's what's happened with BB when it comes to offensive talent evaluation.
However, when it comes to defense, I think BB is a literal fucking genius. I don't think there is any offense, any scheme, any formation, any plan that he hasn't seen countless times and he doesn't know how to stop. It doesn't matter if it's Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce or CMC, he knows how to take away opponents best players, and then figure out the rest from there provided his players are talented enough to handle the game plan. Sometimes, like in the Bills playoff game in 2021, they just aren't good enough, but sometimes, like the SB's against the Rams, he can just beat you on game plans. However, his ability to coach up a defense and find diamonds in the rough that have versatility and can play all over the field on defense doesn't necessarily translate on offense. It's like focusing on a wide receiver who may not be the best pass catcher, but oh boy, can they block downfield? Or maybe not the greatest punter, but infatuated with lefties because he thinks it's harder for returners because they don't see it in practice. I just don't believe Bill has ever had to handle the role of finding offensive players by himself like he's had to in recent years, he had young, state of the art OC's and offensive minds around him, and of course, he had the GOAT making up for almost any mistake.
I don't think what we're seeing is necessarily new, I think it's the end result of losing the greatest football player and mind of all time, and all of the young coaching talent and evaluators at the same time.
Not to pick on you, because there are many making similar posts throughout the thread you're just right here to quote, but this is so disingenuous. Nostalgia, yes... for one of the best coaches in the league's history and the GOAT two decade stretch. Those things I'm "nostalgic" for can also be called an absurdly long track record of ultra high end success. Are there nits to pick with the last 5-7 years? Obviously, yes. Are they mostly on offense? Also yes. But when old farts like me say they would be fine running him back out there, it's not just so I can tell my nephews about who that used to be, it's because he's objectively one of the greatest football minds to ever exist and I would like the coach of the team next year to maybe be someone with a brilliant football mind and a long track record of success at the highest levels throughout multiple eras. You want to jettison him for, who, the DET OC? No, thanks.
It is not "based on nostalgia" just because somebody mentions an emotion. It's based on his record. You can point to the last five years and find things to criticize, fine, but I think it's pretty ignorant to ignore the previous fifty years he has in the game just because "offense has changed" or whatever. The game changes constantly. BB and company arguably reinvented the passing game in 2007. I don't think just because he's 72 he's suddenly incapable of seeing that McDaniel is using motion to get fast players into their breaks quicker and everyone is copying it. Just because he isn't currently on the cutting edge of offense doesn't mean he's old man yelling at cloud or something. The Patriots gameplan to control the rams in that last superbowl is arguably the blueprint that 2023 defenses are using to (finally) control the league's high-flying offenses. The man is highly relevant, even if he has lost a step.
And I'm not even convinced he's lost a step. He just cajoled a dead-on-their-feet-looking-team into two tight victories and they hung around against the Chiefs. They've lost 7 games by a single score. They've only been outscored by more than 10 twice (back to back in that awful Cowboys/Saints pairing). They lost their first round draft pick and their best overall defensive player to injuries incredibly early, probably their best offensive player (Rhamondre) has been hurt most of the year as well, and their QB took big steps back two years in a row. I'm not saying they're only unlucky (certainly the OC bullshit didn't help Mac), just like I'm not voting to keep BB only for nostalgia. But my point is this shit isn't black and white. A lot of these posts read like "Hur dur belichick doesn't know what a modern WR is he'll probably try and draft another nose tackle."
Fans seem to think we know how to fix the thing, that the only problem is they won't do what we think would work. Call me crazy, but I think the football-lifer-genius with seven rings probably has a better idea about why the oline and WR corps have been bad for five years than any of us, and I'd rather bet on the horse I know, given how often it has won.
I'm reminded of the last few years of Ortiz's career. Two or three times, the majority were done with him. He was cooked, lost a step, all that. He kept doing it til he couldn't run the damn bases, and thank god we didn't get rid of him so we could have run Victor Martinez or whoever out there for a possible OPS+ increase of three points or whatever.
Give me the goat, I'll take my chances. The nostalgia is the floor, the ceiling doesn't exist, and that's a fine deal for me.
For me, the age thing is the less about the concern that Belichick CAN'T do it and more that he WON'T do it, at least not forever. If we're talking about decisions like picking a potential franchise QB this offseason, it might make more sense to pair that player with a head coach / GM / infrastructure that's here for the long haul. If Belichick picks Maye or Daniels or whoever, coaches two more years, then retires, now we need a new GM, a new head coach, maybe a totally different org structure / scouting system / etc. That could certainly be disruptive.
Evaluating front offices is hard from the outside looking in. We don't know how close they came to making right decisions - is the whole process bad, or did they get a little unlucky? So I don't have objections to sticking with Belichick; he's the GOAT. But maybe this is the right inflection point to make a change.
To throw out a question to those in the thread more knowledgeable than me: what about Russell Wilson?
Let's assume for this exercise that the investment would be minimal, with the Broncos cutting him (no trade equity) and picking up enough guaranteed money such that a new multi-year commitment wouldn't be necessary.
a.) Would Russ be intrigued by stepping into Brady's old roster spot to present his own case for immortality?
b.) How does his style of play fit with Belichick's (yes, assuming it's Belichick) offensive philosophy?
c.) How does his style of play fit with the Pats OL and with their receivers (on the assumption both will improve at least some in the coming year)?
Appreciate everyone's thoughts. In a world where the two sure-thing* QBs look to be out of reach for the Pats' first-rounder, would getting an very good-to-elite OG and WR/TE prospects in the first two rounds, along with Russ, position the Pats relatively well for the next 3 years or so?
* -- TINSTAASTQBP
Let's assume for this exercise that the investment would be minimal, with the Broncos cutting him (no trade equity) and picking up enough guaranteed money such that a new multi-year commitment wouldn't be necessary.
a.) Would Russ be intrigued by stepping into Brady's old roster spot to present his own case for immortality?
b.) How does his style of play fit with Belichick's (yes, assuming it's Belichick) offensive philosophy?
c.) How does his style of play fit with the Pats OL and with their receivers (on the assumption both will improve at least some in the coming year)?
Appreciate everyone's thoughts. In a world where the two sure-thing* QBs look to be out of reach for the Pats' first-rounder, would getting an very good-to-elite OG and WR/TE prospects in the first two rounds, along with Russ, position the Pats relatively well for the next 3 years or so?
* -- TINSTAASTQBP
The accusation of ageism is absurd. People typically retire around Bill's age for a reason. It's not like an inherent bias that we have. It's legitimate to question how long Bill is for the job, how that effects his decision-making, and if he's the right person for the team.
1. No
a. no
b. no
and fourthly, no
Would Russ be intrigued? Yes.
Would he fit with BB? No. He does not take care of the ball
I agree that this inflection point may be a convenient place to part ways for all involved. Furthermore, I wonder if the fact that the front office has been "in place" for so long makes a transition to a new regime more difficult or not. Maybe the lift involved makes it more desirable now when you can start everything fresh. Maybe not.
My main point is that not knowing what the right path is feels like a healthy place to be. Even if you think BB's success was mostly Brady, he still knows a thing or two about how to run an NFL team. The league is littered with wunderkinds who never panned out and plenty of veteran assistants who got their opportunities and failed so there is ample evidence that moving on to something new doesn't guarantee winning. If the Patriots move on from him this offseason, there is a very decent chance that they are seeking another head coach a few seasons from now.
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Or maybe some people have faith in the Krafts to make a good decision either way on BB? They have hired two coaches and both are highly thought of. I don't know if the next Patriots' coach hired by the Krafts will be great but I have more faith in them than the Jimmy Haslams of the world.
I pretty much agree with this. It would be a very, very good idea to have a tiered transition plan in place, even if it deviates, to lessen the eventual trauma of his disgorgement. But, I would risk the trauma of this potential failure, personally, rather than try to be ahead of it. YMMV.
This is true and why I would be more willing to entertain the idea of moving on if there was such a candidate known/thought to be available. To my knowledge there is not. If they find such a guy and slot him in, well, that's why they're billionaires and I'm not, I guess.
And just to add, there is some weird shit going on around the team the last few years, starting with the desperation hire of Matt Patricia to be offensive coordinator. That's just not a move that any compentent head of a football operation would ever make, and yet the best one ever made it.
At some point in the not-so-distant future, Kraft is going to have to replace BB. He's 71, the odds that he is still here in the job at 80 are quite low, probably close to zero.
BB has been at THE top of the game for so long it is hard to imagine him willingly taking a step back. But if he were willing - step down as head of the football operatrion but continue on as coach, that would probably be the best thing for everything. It would just seem too much like a demotion for me to think BB would seriously consider it.
So to me the Bill decision comes down to a few things:
There are basically 5-6 areas that you are looking at in replacing a GM/HC:
1. Drafting and rookie scouting
2. Pro-scouting and FA signings
3. In-game coaching/gameplan
4. Offensive system/coordination
5. Defensive system.coordination
6. Player development.
I think if you go through each you'd say:
1. Could get better could get worse, we've generally been around average and most of the league clusters there long term.
2. Interesting question, recent offensive signings have been hit or miss, defensive signings have been primarily very good.
3. I'd say you're likely to do worse.... might get a bit of improvement on aggression/analytics, but gameplan is a Belichick specialty and he's generally considered one of the best
4. Definitely could do better, BoB is a competent NFL OC but not a particularly great one and the staff is shallow.
5. No, basically no chance, this staff headed by Bill has consistently been one of the biggest overperformers year in and year out.
6. Mixed bag, on defense they do a great job, on offense more mixed.
Now to me, I want to keep Bill because I think you can improve a lot of the areas through non-Bill changes. Expand the offensive staff, maybe scouting as well, and give them more imput into Pro-scouting and modernizing the offense (whether that is with BoB or with a new coordinator).
As to age, I think the only real impact would be if Bill tells you he only sees himself coaching 2 more years. 3-4.... decent chance a new coach doesn't make it past that anyway.
There are basically 5-6 areas that you are looking at in replacing a GM/HC:
1. Drafting and rookie scouting
2. Pro-scouting and FA signings
3. In-game coaching/gameplan
4. Offensive system/coordination
5. Defensive system.coordination
6. Player development.
I think if you go through each you'd say:
1. Could get better could get worse, we've generally been around average and most of the league clusters there long term.
2. Interesting question, recent offensive signings have been hit or miss, defensive signings have been primarily very good.
3. I'd say you're likely to do worse.... might get a bit of improvement on aggression/analytics, but gameplan is a Belichick specialty and he's generally considered one of the best
4. Definitely could do better, BoB is a competent NFL OC but not a particularly great one and the staff is shallow.
5. No, basically no chance, this staff headed by Bill has consistently been one of the biggest overperformers year in and year out.
6. Mixed bag, on defense they do a great job, on offense more mixed.
Now to me, I want to keep Bill because I think you can improve a lot of the areas through non-Bill changes. Expand the offensive staff, maybe scouting as well, and give them more imput into Pro-scouting and modernizing the offense (whether that is with BoB or with a new coordinator).
As to age, I think the only real impact would be if Bill tells you he only sees himself coaching 2 more years. 3-4.... decent chance a new coach doesn't make it past that anyway.
I've probably posted this four times in the past two months, but I have such a hard time wrapping my head around the idea that getting fired or fire-traded is more palatable to Bill than whatever bringing in another significant voice in offensive player evaluation would look like.
Winning a post-Brady Super Bowl anywhere is the best possible thing for Bill's legacy. If one of the most ready-made to compete jobs is available and Kraft wants to let him go to Dallas or Buffalo or whatever, I can see how a mutual agreement could be come to that moving on is in everyone's legitimate best interests. Short of that, I really think that getting the Patriots good again is the best possible option for his legacy. No one's going to give a shit in 5 years if Scott Pioli II was in the room saying take the Pickens equivalent over the Tyquan Thornton one.
The guy has been in charge of the entirety of the football operation in Foxboro for 20+ years. There is no scenario in which he is agreeing to have anyone come into the operation who has veto rights over draft picks, personnel moves or whatever. It isn’t happening. Maybe he agrees to bring in some new voices, but he’s not relinquishing control. And if you believe he’s not relinquishing control then keeping him means entrusting him to rebuild the roster on offense.
Lol Mayo and two guys whose teams were terrible and whose players despises them to the man
Edit I do think it might be time to have the conversation on whether Kraft is barreling down the terrible owner road.
Edit I do think it might be time to have the conversation on whether Kraft is barreling down the terrible owner road.
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Based on another "sources close to the team" report that doesn't actually say that Kraft is considering any of those people? It strikes me that you probably had that conversation already in the chamber for whatever reasons.
From where I sit Kraft is one of the best sports owners and the fact that he/JK have stayed largely quiet this season reinforces my view. That said, I was here before all the winning so maybe that makes a difference for some of us.
Kraft has been a good owner I agree, he hired a guy then got out of the way. Helped that he ended up with the best dynasty ever.
Recently there has been a lot of stuff very obviously source from the owner's suite, starting around when Brady left. Now that could be Jonathan I guess, but I definitely don't think his front office leaking like a sieve all year about replacing Belichick while he says nothing official makes me feel good.
Rappaport isn't WEEI he ran that because someone with good info gave it to him.
It is interesting that the only 2 coaches Kraft has hired are BB and Pete Carroll, both of whom have since gone on to have highly successful coaching careers.
Depressing to see failures like Flores and McDaniels mentioned. Will someone like Ben Johnson transition well to a head coaching role? Who knows... but I want new blood if Belichick leaves.
Would never happen but I bet the Krafts have informally discussed parting ways with Belichick before the Jets game.
Would never happen but I bet the Krafts have informally discussed parting ways with Belichick before the Jets game.
Yeah, if he’s gone, it would be nice for everyone to know it in advance, no? Or if he’s gonna be back, announce that prior. Maybe that’s naive. Guess he will be back in the summer for the weird Brady thing anyways.
They say he wants to do it right, but he is leaving him hanging, the owners side has leaked all season, and we even have candidates already in the running. It's about as shabby as it gets.
No one is "in the running" any more than people are in the running for other potential openings.
We also have NO idea if BB wants to talk now, even if Kraft approached him. In fact, it seems that if he did BB would rather talk after season.
Not quite sure where to put this, but since Bill is still the coach...
Trent Brown was a healthy scratch today and that removed any chance of earning his last playing time contract incentives:
Patriots cost Trent Brown big contract incentive by benching him (msn.com)
Trent Brown was a healthy scratch today and that removed any chance of earning his last playing time contract incentives:
Patriots cost Trent Brown big contract incentive by benching him (msn.com)
My guess is that they have had initial discussions and made a plan for how to meet after the season. BB likely does not want any info about that being made public. He gets to focus on his job/players. The media doesn't get anything real to chew on.
Yeah, Brown said that he was amenable to signing a new contract during the season, but it's too late now, they never came to him. And since that happened he's been pretty vocal about a lot of things--Malik Cunningham, etc.
He's also the only option on the market to fill their need at LT. Anyone else is absolute dogshit and closer to a backup than a starter.
He literally was asked about this a week or two ago and referred the reporters to Bob Kraft.
I took that as typical deflection from BB, and didn't read too much into it. In any event I'm increasingly convinced whatever outcome is reached won't be adversarial.
I think a lot of this speculation is media people wishing. Kraft isn’t firing Belichick. He owes him $25 million for next year. But there are a lot of people in the media that have been waiting for him to be gone for a long time, and they feel like this id their best opportunity.
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