Plympton91 said:Yup. Since the first couple games Grady has been terrible, and it's not entirely clear that Jackie Bradley can hit major league pitching yet either.
Rasputin said:
The difference between now and the beginning of the season is that Nava looks like shit. We can expose him to waivers with much less risk of losing him.
Also, Bradley, Sizemore, Victorino and Gomes are all better than he is.
normstalls said:If Nava goes down, do we then assume Sizemore becomes Gomes platoon partner?
That would appear to be a pretty solid defensive Outfield.
Sizemore/Gomes (LF) -- JBJ (CF) -- Victorino (RF)
Rudy Pemberton said:I'd get rid of Carp. The team has shown no confidence in his ability to play the field, and his last season was fueled with a ridiculously high BABIP. He's nice insurance but he's expendable.
So with Vic apparently a day or two away, there seems to be a growing consensus here as to the top 4 OFs: Sizemore/Gomes, JBJ, and Victorino (L>R).Rasputin said:
This is what I thought before the season but people yelled at me saying that there was some kind of assfuck waivers that he'd have to be exposed to. I care about this game. I have read the balk rules multiple times. There is not enough life left in me to spend on working out the waiver rules especially when all I really care about is that we have the best players available to the major league roster on the major league roster. Nava is at best the fifth best outfielder once Victorino is healthy and I'm not entirely sure that Bryce Brentz isn't a better option.
Sizemore and Gomes in left, Bradley in center, Victorino in right. It's our best outfield configuration and that's been true since Sizemore survived spring training.
Savin Hillbilly said:And by the way, you realize when you say this....
....that of Nava, Sizemore and Bradley, the best hitter so far, by wRC+, has been Bradley?
mabrowndog said:Can we avoid the sidebars on the Ellsbury stuff? I mean, there were countless threads on him this winter, and his status was discussed and debated ad nauseum.
I started this thread to discuss Victorino's health issues. It spawned a brief discussion of the relative merits of Nava and JBJ, which was relevant since a roster move is needed to make room for Victorino coming off the DL.
Ellsbury is gone. He isn't coming back. Let it go already.
Reverend said:
True, but he's also hitting .222 despite a .343 BABIP. Granted, the BABIP has been .200 since the 8th, but this all underscores the volatility of these numbers in small samples.
Might as well use what he's got for the BoSox vs. the PawSox.soxhop411 said:Farrell: Victorino could be activated tomorrow.
https://twitter.com/TimBritton/status/458699718093447168
gatorgurl67 said:Not sure where to put this:
Scott Lauber @ScottLauber 1m
Given recent overuse of bullpen, Farrell said #RedSox likely will have to add a pitcher tomorrow, Victorino on Thursday
Or, the just had two really taxing games on the bullpen and legitimately need an arm.Plympton91 said:
Given that Victorino was 0-4 with 3 K's and an error, seems like a polite way of saying that perhaps he should get more games in with Pawtucket. He basically took the winter to recover from last season's injuries and then missed most of spring training. They tried this last season with Drew, and he went like 7 for 60 before catching up to the rest of the league and starting to hit. Given that activating Vic requires a hard roster decision, what exactly is the rush to get him back?
Plympton91 said:
what exactly is the rush to get him back?
Might as well add the fleet footed Grady Sizemore to that short list.Adrian's Dome said:
Daniel Nava, RF and/or Mike Carp, LF
It's definitely not surprising since he has the option left, thus not impacting their organizational depth and giving them more time to assess Sizemore, who has been nearly as bad at the plate and possibly worse in the field. Actually, Sizemore has been even worse against RH pitching than Nava.Laser Show said:https://twitter.com/Sean_McAdam/status/458803661016432640
Looks like it's Nava. No surprise, but sad to see. Hopefully this is just a slump.
Van Everyman said:To that point, after JBJ's torrential spring last year and The Reanimation of Grady Sizemore this spring, I hope we can all agree going forward that spring training is not remotely predictive of actual performance.
Stitch01 said:The opportunity cost is currently hitting .149/.240/.269 and beyond messed up at the plate. As you have pointed out, there's not a lot of organizational depth in the OF right now. The Sizemore cost/risk so far is basically nothing.
And sometimes, like Adrian Beltre, those low-cost opps work out quite well indeed.Reverend said:
Said opportunity cost and his surprisingly poor performance is arguably why you investigate other low cost alternatives even when it seems unnecessary.
If you abstract from the overexposure to lefthanded pitchers who he shouldn't play regularly against, Nava is just in a perfectly normal slump. And, one of the reasons he's playing more against lefthanders is because there are 4 lefthanded outfielders and one righty. Without Sizemore taking up a roster spot, there would be room for Snyder, Brentz or Hassan to platoon with Nava. So, the lack of another righty and a more balanced platoon arrangement over the first three weeks is another part of the opportunity cost.Reverend said:
Said opportunity cost and his surprisingly poor performance is arguably why you investigate other low cost alternatives even when it seems unnecessary.
The subject of "no-risk" signings also merits it's own thread. You're including one complete and utter failure in Smoltz and another in Sizemore (after just 3.5 weeks), but are ignoring the "no-risk" signings of Wakefield, Ortiz, Okajima, etc., where the reward has been over-the-top. What percentage of these "no-risk" ventures do you have to hit on in order to justify the process? 15%? It's not as if the Sox are trying to get by completely with bargain hunting. They're still going to end up close to the luxury tax cap.Plympton91 said:This also illustrates why these so-called "no-risk signings" like Smoltz and Sizemore aren't really no risk. They come with the risk that the players show just enough to warrant a longer look, and then they suck during that longer look.
WenZink said:The subject of "no-risk" signings also merits it's own thread. You're including one complete and utter failure in Smoltz and another in Sizemore (after just 3.5 weeks), but are ignoring the "no-risk" signings of Wakefield, Ortiz, Okajima, etc., where the reward has been over-the-top. What percentage of these "no-risk" ventures do you have to hit on in order to justify the process? 15%? It's not as if the Sox are trying to get by completely with bargain hunting. They're still going to end up close to the luxury tax cap.
So you're introducing a "sub-category" to "no-risk" signings, which is perfectly reasonable. But the Sox are trying to leverage the advances in sports medicine and physical therapy, and I think it's a valid path, because, someday, it's going to work. And I'm certainly not going to write-off Sizemore. Perhaps the solution is to DL him when Victorino is added today, and let Grady re-charge his batteries and see if he's improved in a couple of weeks. (I don't think it would be too hard to come up with some valid injury -- there's a lot to choose from.)Plympton91 said:
I don't see Smoltz and Sizemore in the same category as those other ones that have been mentioned. Ortiz had a perfectly league average season for the Twins in the year before he signed, they just didn't think he was worth the arbitration award he was going to get so they nontendered him. Had he had that same season for the Red Sox, they likely would have tendered him a contract. Beltre was going to provide gold glove defense at 3B even if he didn't hit and he was signed for $8 million if I remember correctly, so it wasn't really a "no risk" signing. Similarly last year with Drew signing for $9.5 million. Those players were signed to produce in starting roles, not as a "lets see if he has anything left" flier. Wakefield was signed to a minor league contract and only added after he showed success in AAA. Smoltz and Sizemore got major league contracts coming off catastrophic injuries. There was no flexibility and very low chance of success.
Van Everyman said:To that point, after JBJ's torrential spring last year and The Reanimation of Grady Sizemore this spring, I hope we can all agree going forward that spring training is not remotely predictive of actual performance.
Smiling Joe Hesketh said:Beltre played in only 111 games the year before the Sox signed him. Assessing him as more or less a sure thing even for defense seems to ignore the reality of it.
The flexibilty you bemoan is lacking is actually there because Sizemore's contract is so small they can cut him easily if he doesn't work out. What did he get, 750K? That's where the flexibility comes in.
And again, it's been 21 games and you're already chalking up Sizemore as a failure. That's silly. If you're going to handwave away Nava's struggles as a regular slump, I see no reason why Sizemore's slow start couldn't be considered exactly the same.
Plympton91 said:
The Red Sox gave Beltre $8 million, that isn't "no risk," that's a risk of losing $8 million guaranteed dollars.
Cutting someone is the very definition of "no flexibility."
I agree that on offense Sizemore could just be in a slump or shaking off rust, and that he could yet prove to be a valuable bat. I said that in my previous post. However, I think we can all agree that he's not a CF anymore and that's what the Red Sox really needed. Moreover, it's not even clear that he's any better defensively in the corners than Nava at this point, so like Nava he's going to have to be an 800 OPS guy to have any value at all. Who's more likely to give you that value going forward, the guy who was an 800 OPS guy last season, or the guy who was last an 800 OPS guy in 2008? Once Nava is hitting .350 at Pawtucket, I hope they don't wait too much longer for Sizemore to find the fountain of youth.
Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
Writing off JBJ already? Oh wait, you've already made your position clear on him, he's never gonna make it, right? It's obvious that the plan is to see if Bradley can take over the CF job long term.
$8 million for 1 year isn't really much of a risk to the Red Sox. The Royals, maybe, but not the Sox.
Weren't you just complaining about lack of roster flexibility? If Sizemore stinks they won't have any qualms in cutting him because the financial obligation to him is practically nil, in baseball terms.
glennhoffmania said:Isn't the point to having a strong farm system that you develop players to replace guys who leave for one reason or another? I really don't understand the anxiety here. Should they have given Beltre a huge contract in case Middlebrooks doesn't pan out? What about Drew in case Xander sucks? Salty, or even McCann, in the event that Vazquez tanks?
At some point you have take a chance that the guys you drafted and developed can actually play in the majors and let someone like Ellsbury who demanded a ridiculous contract walk away.
Crap, this should probably go in the other thread that P91 is polluting.
Plympton91 said:
The point is that they don't have a strong crop of CFers in the farm system. They have Bradley on the cusp and then Margot at Greenville. Moreover, they don't have a legitimate backup CF on the major league roster, except Victorino, but when Victorino plays CF they don't have a legitimate backup in RF either. At 3B, they have Middlebrooks, with Cecchini banging at the door in Pawtucket. Jonathan Herrera is a legitimate major league backup at SS providing insurance for Xander, and Marerro at Portland is Iggy-lite if it comes to that. And, yes, they should have beaten the offer that the Marlins gave to Salty, because given the lack of depth they have at 1B (Napoli only signed for 2 years and no legitimate prospects anywhere in the system) he wouldn't necessarily have blocked Vazquez even if the forecast for his progress comes true.
dbn said:
So you are saying that when a star player departs via free agency it affects the depth at his position?
When deciding weather to outbid $22M/yr x 7 yrs for their 30 yr old star CF, the depth they had at CF was a MLB top-50 prospect that was likely ready for the majors on 2014.
Plympton91 said:This also illustrates why these so-called "no-risk signings" like Smoltz and Sizemore aren't really no risk. They come with the risk that the players show just enough to warrant a longer look, and then they suck during that longer look.
Plympton91 said:
The point is that despite the overall strength, they don't have a strong crop of CFers in the farm system. They have Bradley on the cusp and then Margot at Greenville. Moreover, they don't have a legitimate backup CF on the major league roster, except Victorino, but when Victorino plays CF they don't have a legitimate backup in RF either.
At 3B, they have Middlebrooks, with Cecchini banging at the door in Pawtucket if he fails or gets hurt long-term. Jonathan Herrera is a legitimate major league backup at SS providing insurance for Xander, with Marerro at Portland who could serve as Iggy-lite if it came to that and Holt provides reasonable backup to Herrera as the utility infielder. They have deep depth at SS and 3B that they lack in CF and RF, despite the overall strength of the farm system. Not to mention the potential for Betts to possibly play multiple infield positions. Frankly, Betts might be the best option for CF if Bradley goes down with injury.
And, yes, they should have beaten the offer that the Marlins gave to Salty, because given the lack of depth they have at 1B (Napoli only signed for 2 years and no legitimate prospects anywhere in the system) he wouldn't necessarily have blocked Vazquez even if the forecast for his progress comes true.
Right fielder Shane Victorino, who has been on the disabled list since May 24 with a right hamstring strain, could begin a rehab assignment this weekend.
“We’ve got another couple days of work to get him to that point,” said manager John Farrell. “Saturday’s a likely day that’s kind of pointing towards that.”
This is Victorino’s second stint on the DL this season. He missed 22 games at the beginning of the season, also with a right hamstring strain. He has appeared in just 21 games this season, batting .242/.352/.276.