It's absolutely real. I made Simmons basically a much-watch because his passing is really, really fun. But he gave no shits on the other end of the court.
Absolutely. The upside is all in a players physical and how much growth he has in other improveable areas of his game. He doesn't have to be a lockdown defender to be an elite player.....he only has to be passable.Agreed. It's a concern. But I'd rather be concerned about the mental than the physical. I would like to see it though, esp as he seems very competitive in everything else, bit odd to thing he would slack off in this area, but it is a concern.
It's just a guess, but I think he will turn it on. He needs coaching, of course. But his elite athleticism, and the chip on the shoulder you allude to, make me think he turns into an above average defender and potentially a very, very good one.We've seen stars before be pretty eh and then turn it on when they felt like it. My hope is he actually cares and is competitive and the likes of Embiid and Saric and Noel (who all appear as high effort high character guys and work hard) push him into it.
I think he'll get pissed off being embarrassed. But if he's guarding a bad player... yeah he could well loaf. I wouldn't be shocked to see him play defense to the level of his guy. On lebron? max effort. On some scrub, eh. Anyway we shall see. He's making the sixers a fun watch. Already.
My counter would be that he had one goal in college - don't get hurt.Simmons has a bit of Harden syndrome on D for sure. The question is going to be whether he also has the ability to turn it on. Harden did it for one year when he got mocked on twitter all year then spent the summer with the national team and got to working like they did. He backslid after a year of being lazy all summer, coming in out of shape and the team being dysfunctional (and his coach getting fired). Those guys often CAN defend, but getting them to do it consistently is based on their personalities, and getting a coach/teammates that can effectively pressure them into making the effort.
Edit- personally I think he'll always be a not great effort defender, he never really showed that he cares about getting embarrassed at the college level.
Simmons seems to be the type of player where you need a legit defensive stopper at the wing to avoid having him matched up against the LeBrons and Durant's of today and the next generation. Someone like a Bruce Bowen/Trenton Hassell type defensivley who develops are a spot-up 3-point shooter as Bowen did......unlike Hassell.We've seen stars before be pretty eh and then turn it on when they felt like it. My hope is he actually cares and is competitive and the likes of Embiid and Saric and Noel (who all appear as high effort high character guys and work hard) push him into it.
I think he'll get pissed off being embarrassed. But if he's guarding a bad player... yeah he could well loaf. I wouldn't be shocked to see him play defense to the level of his guy. On lebron? max effort. On some scrub, eh. Anyway we shall see. He's making the sixers a fun watch. Already.
I like the veteran stabilizing acquisitions. Still need a PG and I'd like to see a veteran big for Embiid, Noel/Okafor, etc to pick up nuances from without having to commit long term. Someone like a Brandon Bass is what I'm thinking.Saric has impressed in the Olympic qualifying games, and was named mvp. He also confirmed he's heading to the US to sign with the sixers before he goes to Rio.
I was impressed, Vs Greece he was defending giannis a lot and did well, he also played great and had one coast to coast which was very impressive.
I think it's likely that they are adding 4 good rookies, plus Bayless Rodriguez and Henderson. That's seven guys from what maybe... 3? (Noel, Okafor and Covington maybe grant.)
The team will still be bad, but this kind of talent addition even while stashing korkmaz. YAY!
Yeah after the game brown was basically saying he can shoot but he's not really needed to and he's less confident than other areas but the message is shoot, miss is fine. Improve.Even in Summer League, Ben Simmons refuses to even attempt jumpers.
Nope nope nope fingers in my ears nah nahThe Nets met with Waiters but didn't sign him. In potentially related news, Dion hashtagged "Trust the Process" on Instagram.
Breathe easy my friend, Waiters has signed with Miami.Nope nope nope fingers in my ears nah nah
For $2.9M?! Dude took a 40+% pay cut in a year when the cap went up $30M / team. My faith in humanity has been restored.Breathe easy my friend, Waiters has signed with Miami.
Yeah but that was done purposely to hit the market next summer when the cap REALLY explodes!For $2.9M?! Dude took a 40+% pay cut in a year when the cap went up $30M / team. My faith in humanity has been restored.
Why does Okafor continue to be crucified for being a raw defensive player in a rookie season he entered at the age of 19? I don't understand why he's viewed to some as a finished product when at his age he woudn't have seen ANY minutes last year and only did due to his offensive game.Building off what II posts immediately above, here are the videos that went with the series of tweets. Very interesting read and watch.
http://www.libertyballers.com/2016/7/29/12317906/okafor-defense-video-analysis
I never really was thrilled with the rumors on possibly trading for Okafur. Now, after this, I am actually against it.
I think because the smarter analytic people are increasingly focused on the analysis that the more important side of a centre's play is the defensive side. So he's getting killed for his liabilities there and down playing his offensive skills.Why does Okafor continue to be crucified for being a raw defensive player in a rookie season he entered at the age of 19? I don't understand why he's viewed to some as a finished product when at his age he woudn't have seen ANY minutes last year and only did due to his offensive game.
I'm loathe to just cite to plus/minus metrics, especially in a context as quirky as Okafor's, but given they actually do work quite well (i.e., you can pretty easily build a model to beat Vegas over/unders using them), I think they serve as a pretty strong null hypothesis. Okafor's are awful on offense - his offensive RPM is -3.72, which is far below replacement level. His oPT-PM (plus minus blended with SportVU data) is a little kinder, at -1.7, but that's still below replacement level. His oBPM, which is actually just a box-score metric is -2.6, which again, is far below replacement level.As you say that's why they play. But I'm open to arguments why he's bad offensively. I don't see it. Passing issues yes, but reasons for optimism. Boards and defense yeah bad no argument. Also no argument this matters a lot. But bad offensively...
Speaking of this, do you now have 2years of data showing your model. vs Vegas? If do, can you bump that thread?I'm loathe to just cite to plus/minus metrics, especially in a context as quirky as Okafor's, but given they actually do work quite well (i.e., you can pretty easily build a model to beat Vegas over/unders using them), I think they serve as a pretty strong null hypothesis. Okafor's are awful on offense - his offensive RPM is -3.72, which is far below replacement level. His oPT-PM (plus minus blended with SportVU data) is a little kinder, at -1.7, but that's still below replacement level. His oBPM, which is actually just a box-score metric is -2.6, which again, is far below replacement level.
These are three distinct data sources which all see Okafor as an offensive black hole as well as a defensive one. RPM and PT-PM are both adjusted for teammate quality, BPM is not. And it's not like it was just impossible to post good numbers on the Sixers last year. His numbers were by far the worst on the team. And these metrics have generally recognized guys who carry a heavy offensive load on terrible teams. They just universally hate Okafor however, even on the offensive side of the ball.
No "all-in-one" metric is perfect, but as a starting point, it should probably make you question your convictions that he's a plus offensive piece. You may not think that's right, and it may not be, but I'd bet that goes a long way to explaining why there's a "surprisingly" small market for him. Your mileage may vary of course.
I wonder what this makes of the drastic improvement post Ish signing? A 13% improvement is pretty drastic in FG%. Is it possible to compair.I'm loathe to just cite to plus/minus metrics, especially in a context as quirky as Okafor's, but given they actually do work quite well (i.e., you can pretty easily build a model to beat Vegas over/unders using them), I think they serve as a pretty strong null hypothesis. Okafor's are awful on offense - his offensive RPM is -3.72, which is far below replacement level. His oPT-PM (plus minus blended with SportVU data) is a little kinder, at -1.7, but that's still below replacement level. His oBPM, which is actually just a box-score metric is -2.6, which again, is far below replacement level.
These are three distinct data sources which all see Okafor as an offensive black hole as well as a defensive one. RPM and PT-PM are both adjusted for teammate quality, BPM is not. And it's not like it was just impossible to post good numbers on the Sixers last year. His numbers were by far the worst on the team. And these metrics have generally recognized guys who carry a heavy offensive load on terrible teams. They just universally hate Okafor however, even on the offensive side of the ball.
No "all-in-one" metric is perfect, but as a starting point, it should probably make you question your convictions that he's a plus offensive piece. You may not think that's right, and it may not be, but I'd bet that goes a long way to explaining why there's a "surprisingly" small market for him. Your mileage may vary of course.
Sure but we agree he's a liability defensively. So that doesn't mean he was an offensive one.Ish and Okafor played 432 minutes together, and were outscored by 13.1 points per 100 possesions during that time. This compares to the 1184 minutes Ish Smith played without Okafor for the Sixers, during which time the team was outscored by 8.6 points per 100 possessions. They were about 4.5 points worse with Okafor on the court than without him, even after Smith joined the team.
I'll post the full numbers when I do another update of my projections for this season. Overall I went 23-7 last year (I am kmedved).Speaking of this, do you now have 2years of data showing your model. vs Vegas? If do, can you bump that thread?
I have no argument with the stats that say okafor was a bad player last year, but isn't the real question what do you think he'll be in another year or two? I have no insight, but I'd like to know what people with a deeper understanding of him and his game think.Ish and Okafor played 432 minutes together, and were outscored by 13.1 points per 100 possesions during that time. This compares to the 1184 minutes Ish Smith played without Okafor for the Sixers, during which time the team was outscored by 8.6 points per 100 possessions. They were about 4.5 points worse with Okafor on the court than without him, even after Smith joined the team.