The sixers and building a winner
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Again, this isn't the point. The point is that there's a glut of centers in the league at the moment, and the days of teams getting giant returns because they have a spare tall guy have vanished. The Sixers can hold out for their dream, and then match whatever offer Noel gets next summer, but all they've done in that scenario is permabench one of their other tall guys. There comes a point where it's time to move on, and the Sixers are obviously there.
This is precisely the point. The days of running a kiddie asylum are over, the management understands that part of helping young teams mature into winning squads involves having vets there to help them through. If they're going for Simmons, then having another offensive QB on the floor is an advantage, and helps Simmons by easing him into his role.
And again, I disagree with your assessment that there's a glut of centers in the league, and provided a dozen examples of teams that could use a guy like Noel, and several examples of players with similar skill sets that teams are either a) going to pay a ton this summer, or b) paid a ton last summer.
We've probably covered the Noel / Teague thing, right? Everyone had established their positions, etc?
Asking for a friend.
Asking for a friend.
If I'm Philly, I give Phoenix a call about Bledsoe on draft night. He's signed for 3 more years at about $14M / year, is still only 26. so Philly gets more value for Noel and Phoenix gets their guy Dunn at #4 while adding a young athletic big. Not sure if he and Len can co-exist but Phoenix doesn't really have an athletic big now that Tyson Chandler has calcified.
Some of your "dozen teams" already had starting centers and or better centers, meaning that they would be dealing for a backup in Noel. And teams don't mortgage their future for backup centers. What you really had were 6-8 teams, some of whom are just going to sign alternatives in free agency and/or draft their tall roleplayers.
Since you obviously refused to look at the full list someone posted a link to last page, here are the highlights of the 25 and under set. Which is why the Boogieman isn't on this list.
Tristan Thompson
Karl-Anthony Towns
Enes Kanter
Andre Drummond
Anthony Davis
Derrick Favors
Jonas Valanciunas
Nikola Jokic
Steven Adams
Rudy Gobert
Cody Zeller
Bismack Biyombo
Clint Capela
Kristaps Porzingis
Willie Cauley-Stein
Frank Kaminsky
Myles Turner
Nerlens Noel
Meyers Leonard
Alex Len
Jahlil Okafor
Tarik Black
Lucas Nogueira
Jusuf Nurkic
Yes, there absolutely is a glut, and the Sixers have three centers, all of whom need developmental time, one PF inbound and another to be drafted. So to maintain their deathgrip on Noel they're squandering either Embiid or Okafor. There isn't room for all five guys.
Since you obviously refused to look at the full list someone posted a link to last page, here are the highlights of the 25 and under set. Which is why the Boogieman isn't on this list.
Tristan Thompson
Karl-Anthony Towns
Enes Kanter
Andre Drummond
Anthony Davis
Derrick Favors
Jonas Valanciunas
Nikola Jokic
Steven Adams
Rudy Gobert
Cody Zeller
Bismack Biyombo
Clint Capela
Kristaps Porzingis
Willie Cauley-Stein
Frank Kaminsky
Myles Turner
Nerlens Noel
Meyers Leonard
Alex Len
Jahlil Okafor
Tarik Black
Lucas Nogueira
Jusuf Nurkic
Yes, there absolutely is a glut, and the Sixers have three centers, all of whom need developmental time, one PF inbound and another to be drafted. So to maintain their deathgrip on Noel they're squandering either Embiid or Okafor. There isn't room for all five guys.
So, gonna go ahead and assume that you missed previous posts where I suggested they move Okafor instead of Noel, right? This is why engaging with you is always like pulling teeth. Because when I argue that Jeff Teague would be a bad return for Noel, you decide that means that I'm advocating that the Sixers keep Noel, Okafor, and Embiid indefinitely. Those two things aren't mutually exclusive. There's no nuance in any discussion with you. If somebody disagrees with part of what you say, you assume they're disagreeing with everything you've ever said. It's exhausting.
And then in your insistence that there's a glut of young centers out there that are limiting the value the Sixers will get for one of their centers, you include guys like Tarik Black and Lucas Nogueira who spent basically no time on the floor this year. You also include a ton of guys who have absolutely nothing in common with Nerlens Noel. What similarities do Enes Kanter and Nerlens Noel have aside from position in a box score. Why is how a team values Kanter at all relevant to a discussion of how teams might value Noel. If anything, the fact that you include both Adams and Kanter on that list works in my favor. Because that means that one team, the Thunder, have highly paid role player centers on their roster -- one who is purely offensive, the other who's major value is on the defensive end of the floor. Which would suggest, you know, that there might be other teams out there willing to acquire a Nerlens Noel type player to pair with juggernauts like Meyers Leonard, Cody Zeller, and Tarik Black.
So to summarize, yes, there are good, young centers out there. There are also many teams out there who don't have a good, young rim protector. There's even more teams out there -- many teams that are on your list and everything -- that don't have a young rim protector who can also hedge on guards, a skill set that's both extraordinarily rare and extraordinarily important in today's NBA. And teams value that. Even teams that already have centers on their roster.
Another friend is also asking, guys.
Don't want to seem like I'm trying to shut you both down, but I think you both are repeating yourselves. Maybe a Mod can split out the center q? It's an interesting one in the more abstract sense, but sort of distracting for a Sixers thread.
I think they're open to moving either player because they know they don't have room for both. But, again, because of the current glut, and the direction the game is going, Okafor's value probably isn't what they hope at the moment. I've been saying this for a couple of years now. Hinkie's biggest mistake was always using the draft pick in years where there were players to be had because the available players weren't top five guys.
Noel is not the dominant defensive center in the NBA. He has defensive potential that someone needs to pay for before he gets there, that's why his value isn't very high. Okafor probably has more because at least whoever trades for him has 3-4 years to see if he can turn into a centerpiece player. With Noel that isn't an option.
Just throwing up a list of young centers is worthless for assessing the trade market for Noel/Okafor when compared to the teams who -actually- do need young centers. You'd need to actually list who's available in trade OR free agency to determine whether there's actually a market for someone -who actually is on the market-.
Noel's value, I have to think, is drastically underrated compared to Okafor's because he -has- to play out of position to cover for Okafor. When he's actually played his natural position, center, he's looked to improve on his rookie year, and he was already a very good defensive center inching closer to dominant when given the chance.
If Noel's trade value is lower than Okafor, then I would trade for Noel and not think twice, because he's more likely to outperform what it costs to trade for him than Okafor is. Someone who's more likely to outperforms the price paid for him is far, far more attractive as a trade target. And yeah, I'd stick by the Ben Wallace comparisions.
Bledsoe for Noel is something I think Phoenix would be -thrilled- by in the long run. I'd even offer them Tyson Chandler -and- Bledsoe just so a) Philadelphia can get closer to their salary floor and b) gives Phoenix more room financially to play with while replacing Chandler with a younger version who's likely -already- better for less money.
Noel's value, I have to think, is drastically underrated compared to Okafor's because he -has- to play out of position to cover for Okafor. When he's actually played his natural position, center, he's looked to improve on his rookie year, and he was already a very good defensive center inching closer to dominant when given the chance.
If Noel's trade value is lower than Okafor, then I would trade for Noel and not think twice, because he's more likely to outperform what it costs to trade for him than Okafor is. Someone who's more likely to outperforms the price paid for him is far, far more attractive as a trade target. And yeah, I'd stick by the Ben Wallace comparisions.
Bledsoe for Noel is something I think Phoenix would be -thrilled- by in the long run. I'd even offer them Tyson Chandler -and- Bledsoe just so a) Philadelphia can get closer to their salary floor and b) gives Phoenix more room financially to play with while replacing Chandler with a younger version who's likely -already- better for less money.
Does injury drive his value down to Noel-level? I mean, we're talking about a younger guy who can - when healthy - do a sort of slightly-poor-man's Chris Paul with an 18/5/6 per 36.
Worth mentioning that Okafor would be under his rookie deal for two more years than Noel. A team looking to add max player(s) next summer may feel Noel would tie their hands while Okafor would still be on his rookie contract for two years longer than Noel. This "could" be a reason why a team would value Okafor higher aside from each offering a completely different skillset that in many cases would cause the value to be team dependent based on need.
You know, I'm not really sure. He's been out of sight out of mind with that many injuries. Chandler struck me as a potential drag, but I was thinking they'd trade someone else to go along with Noel, because that team is entirely too young and needs a few vets to set an example. Still, thinking about it, the Sixers don't -need- another big man.
Point. OTOH, I think Noel has a better chance of realizing his second contract's value than Okafor... although with the way the cap expands, is Noel's restricted contract next year a better bet than Okafor's down the road? I'm just having a harder time picturing a team that would be able to build around Okafor's skill sets, while I have an easier time picturing Noel's.
I don't feel either player is the type anyone would build around. They each project to provide a specific potentially elite skill......teams will value them differentially based on a number of factors. Nobody is trading for Noel to build around him........just as nobody is trading for Okafor to build around him either.
I don't feel either player is the type anyone would build around. They each project to provide a specific potentially elite skill......teams will value them differentially based on a number of factors. Nobody is trading for Noel to build around him........just as nobody is trading for Okafor to build around him either.
It's just that center is a buyer's market at the moment unless you have an game changing player. Philly does not.
I think that Philly taking Tyson Chandler's contract would be the only thing that could tempt Phoenix into that trade.
Saying this does not make it true. In the last 12 months, DeAndre Jordan got a max contract and two teams literally fought over him in ridiculous fashion for two weeks. Tyson Chandler got a 13 million a year deal for 4 years at age 33. Enes Kanter got a max deal. Donatas Motiejunas fetched a first round pick (but failed his physical). Greg Monroe had multiple max offers on the table last season. Omer Asik followed up his RFA overpay with an overpay on an extension. The Sacramento Kings -- who currently employ one of the league's best centers -- paid Kostos Koufos 30 million dollars AND drafted Willie Cauley-Stein with a lottery pick in the same off season.
Last season Timofey Mozgov fetched two first rounders.
This summer, Al Horford (at age 30) and Hassan Whiteside will get max deals. Bismack Biyombo will get 15 million a year this offseason.
None of those things are indicators of a buyers market.
Has there ever been a time when bigs didn't get paid more than what a casual fan would expect? Going back to Jon Koncak, Jim McIlvane, Jerome James, Raef LaFrentz, Mark Blount, Brenda Haywood, Erick Dampier, and on and on and on.
I can't recall a single time in recent history where there was a buyers market on bigs. As you say, this summer will be no different with Ezeli and the deal Larry Sanders gets if he returns.
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There may be a universe where Nerlens Noel is as good as DeAndre Jordan, but it isn't this one. No, he won't be nearly as good as DAJ next year, then you need to deal with the free agency. No, Philadelphia doesn't have a game changing center and center still remains a buyer's market because you can acquire centers for only money.
A 'buyer's market' depends on there being -more- supply than demand. 'Acquiring centers only for money' is not actually indicative of 'a buyer's market' at all. It's an acquisition strategy, but it's certainly -not- the same as evaluating a market.
Otherwise, those centers would -not- be going for big bucks. They'd be going for much, much cheaper, because a buyer's market would actually mean you're -benefiting- from a surplus in order to acquire good players cheaply. Big salaries going to big men, if anything, says a lot more about it being a seller's market than a buyer's market.
The important thing in 'market' is, you know, they have to actually -be- available-. And young bigs like Noel and Okafor really don't become available very much. That's why they're paid like kings when they -do- become available. And why some teams are willing to trade for them when possible.
And of -course- Noel isn't going to be as good as DAJ next year -because- DAJ actually has a few years more development on him.
I'm looking at this:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/n/noelne01.html
vs
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jordade01.html
But hey, I'm sure DAJ wasn't worth acquiring after his first two years, and you're better off spending money on Jerome James, Mark Blount, Brendan Haywood, Erick Dampier, and... whoever else was available at that time.
Otherwise, those centers would -not- be going for big bucks. They'd be going for much, much cheaper, because a buyer's market would actually mean you're -benefiting- from a surplus in order to acquire good players cheaply. Big salaries going to big men, if anything, says a lot more about it being a seller's market than a buyer's market.
The important thing in 'market' is, you know, they have to actually -be- available-. And young bigs like Noel and Okafor really don't become available very much. That's why they're paid like kings when they -do- become available. And why some teams are willing to trade for them when possible.
And of -course- Noel isn't going to be as good as DAJ next year -because- DAJ actually has a few years more development on him.
I'm looking at this:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/n/noelne01.html
vs
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jordade01.html
But hey, I'm sure DAJ wasn't worth acquiring after his first two years, and you're better off spending money on Jerome James, Mark Blount, Brendan Haywood, Erick Dampier, and... whoever else was available at that time.
You're comparing apples to oranges here. The reason the trade market is a buyer's market is that centers regularly reach free agency and they're always available to buy. This year we'll see this happen with Horford, Howard, Biyombo, Noah, and likely Larry Sanders. And the teams signing those guys are going to be either their present teams or the ones without centers (i.e. they won't be in the market for a starting roleplayer). But it's that availability on the free agent market that makes them tough to trade unless you have a player that's viewed as a game changer. Philly does not. And Noel's clock has run out, this isn't like Denver with Jokic where you're getting your guy for three years on bargain rates. Whoever trades for Noel is gambling that he immediately becomes DPoY material (unlikely).
When you name guys like Towns and Davis, I wonder what you're thinking 'available' means.
When you bring up Noah and Howard and Horford, I wonder what you're thinking 'young' means.
If you think Noah, Howard, and Horford are in any way comparable to 'young available centers' like Noel and Okafor, I think you have missed the key point that G&MB was making.
The key to Noel and Okafor that makes them actually -attractive- commodities are that they are young, projectionable, and -actually available-. Key words being -YOUNG- and -AVAILABLE-. Like, you know, age 21 years old Noel should be compared to 27 years old DeAndre Jordan or 30 years old Horford or 31 years old Noah or Howard.
What you describe as a 'buyer's market' is actually a competitive market that limits the market to a handful of teams that actually -has- salary cap room or already owns Bird's rights. It's certainly not a freaking buyer's market where anyone can just up and pick up a center just for relatively little money like you can, say, a point guard.
Acquiring young big men isn't all that easy as 'buy them'. Because the 'center market' is NOT at all anywhere anywhere near 'buy a young big man'. It's more like 'buy worn out players about to hit the downside of their careers'. Even if you included Biyombo and Whiteside as signing elsewhere as actual -young- centers, you're still stuck with a number of teams that still -want- to acquire some actual young big men who can -play- over the long term because they have young teams, not because they need role players.
I mean, part of the reason G&MB asked you to name young big men who could actually be acquired was to illustrate just how -rare- it is for young 21 years old centers to be available to be acquired.
Where are those young centers who actually -are- available to be acquired?
When you bring up Noah and Howard and Horford, I wonder what you're thinking 'young' means.
If you think Noah, Howard, and Horford are in any way comparable to 'young available centers' like Noel and Okafor, I think you have missed the key point that G&MB was making.
The key to Noel and Okafor that makes them actually -attractive- commodities are that they are young, projectionable, and -actually available-. Key words being -YOUNG- and -AVAILABLE-. Like, you know, age 21 years old Noel should be compared to 27 years old DeAndre Jordan or 30 years old Horford or 31 years old Noah or Howard.
What you describe as a 'buyer's market' is actually a competitive market that limits the market to a handful of teams that actually -has- salary cap room or already owns Bird's rights. It's certainly not a freaking buyer's market where anyone can just up and pick up a center just for relatively little money like you can, say, a point guard.
Acquiring young big men isn't all that easy as 'buy them'. Because the 'center market' is NOT at all anywhere anywhere near 'buy a young big man'. It's more like 'buy worn out players about to hit the downside of their careers'. Even if you included Biyombo and Whiteside as signing elsewhere as actual -young- centers, you're still stuck with a number of teams that still -want- to acquire some actual young big men who can -play- over the long term because they have young teams, not because they need role players.
I mean, part of the reason G&MB asked you to name young big men who could actually be acquired was to illustrate just how -rare- it is for young 21 years old centers to be available to be acquired.
Where are those young centers who actually -are- available to be acquired?
Yawn. Even I'm fed up with this discussion. I wonder how it is that Nighthob has so many posts and is still a lurker? It must be the high quality.
I've been trying to end this silly conversation, but it doesn't work. We need a local mod to intervene and split off all the boring center posts out.
RIP Sixers Asst Coach Sean Rooks, 46
No other info as of yet. Very sad and seemingly unexpected.
Edit: Heart attack in Philadelphia restaurant after having met with Jackson and Hornacek for Knicks asst job.
No other info as of yet. Very sad and seemingly unexpected.
Edit: Heart attack in Philadelphia restaurant after having met with Jackson and Hornacek for Knicks asst job.
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Teague played through knee and ankle issues all season and is getting them fixed up this summer. I doubt this affects his value at all moving forward.
I remember having him at #2 on my Celtics' draft board way back when. I had Ollie Miller #1, because despite the weight I thought that he would make it as a long term part of the NBA. It's sad to think that I'm outliving these guys.
It's apparently time for a periodic reminder of how trade value and leverage work.
Short version: A seller needing to sell hurts their leverage. At the point where they have multiple competing buyers, most of that impact is mitigated by competition among the buyers.
This is why, for example, free agents don't end up signing for pennies on the dollar. They need to sell their services to continue getting paid, but they still get paid because multiple teams are interested. Sometimes, a free agent holds out too long, runs out of buyer competition, and ends up getting paid well below market because they get stuck having to sell their services without buyer competition.
Trades aren't any different. As long as there are multiple teams with relatively similar impressions of Noel's (or Okafor's) value it has minimal impact on their trade value that Philly must trade one of them, assuming arguendo that they must do so. Those teams are competing to get that player. In a hypothetical world where three teams are interested in Noel and Teams 1 and 2 are bidding well below market, Team 3 would be foolish to not beat their offers. If that offer is undervaluing Noel, Teams 1 and 2 would be foolish to not best it. Repeat until you hit offers that are around market value. In reality, you probably don't need to repeat too much because everyone involved understands these dynamics.
The fact that Philly is shopping two players and the assumption is they only must trade one makes it even less likely that they lack reasonable leverage. They should be able to get a fair return for whichever player they trade. If they appear not to, the most likely explanation is still not leverage but that both Philly and the league agree that the player is not actually that valuable or that Philly places a high value on whatever they are getting back even if people disagree with that valuation.
In this Bob Ford article, we learn that Joel Embiid grew two inches in the last year. The photo of him towering over Brandon Ingram is interesting.
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/20160614_Ford__Ingram_works_out__Embiid_stands_out.html
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/20160614_Ford__Ingram_works_out__Embiid_stands_out.html
Yeah Embiid is BIG, 7'2" plus, and yeah all reports have him growing since the draft.
Here's him with Noel, Noel is 6'11 excluding the hair, supposedly like 7'3 or 4 with the hair. Dude is over 7'
And remember all the bullshit about him being out of shape and getting fat?
Obviously I hope as a Sixers fan he is able to stay healthy, but anyone who doesn't hate the Sixers should probably hope it too, this kid could be just so freaking good and fun.
Here's him with Noel, Noel is 6'11 excluding the hair, supposedly like 7'3 or 4 with the hair. Dude is over 7'
And remember all the bullshit about him being out of shape and getting fat?
Obviously I hope as a Sixers fan he is able to stay healthy, but anyone who doesn't hate the Sixers should probably hope it too, this kid could be just so freaking good and fun.
76ers and their fans are due for a break one of these days when it comes to big men they have signed in recent years.
I think that's fair. I would have thought he could still have value given the offence, but if it's not there... So be it. I think this was a not great pick by Hinkie, though there have been a number of rumours than ownership pushed him to take him, and were very anti Porzingis. But I think that's unclear, and somewhat a result of the pro Hinkie crowd wanting to believe it.
The Lakers late switch to Russell really hurt, the team would be in a different looking place with Russell (warts and all) at PG
The Lakers late switch to Russell really hurt, the team would be in a different looking place with Russell (warts and all) at PG
How good would the 76ers be if they had the #1 pick last year and the #3 pick this year? Such a fine line . . . .
It's way too early to gauge the market for Okafor and Noel this early as no team is giving the Sixers anything more than their best lowball offer. Neither is a franchise changer and teams know that Colangelo wants to move one or both pretty badly eliminating his leverage. I'm sure things will heat up some by next Thursday.
I've been saying this for a while now, but Okafor arrived a decade late. He isn't nearly the athlete that Boogie is and he just doesn't have the sort of impact he would have in the mid aughts when people were dying for guys that bang bodies with Shaq.
I wasn't looking forward to Colangelo and this draft, given the rumours coming out it seemed he'd act from desperation and make a crap trade.
He didn't he took the right number 1, he got awesome value at 24 with Luwawu - he was one of my top 10 and a great fit as a potential 3&D wing with great athleticism.
Korkmaz is a nice pick at 26 too, leave him overseas for a year or two he's stil super young and needs to get stronger, but a great shooter potentially off the bench.
I would have loved McCaw over Korkmaz for my perfect picks, but that's splitting hairs, Korkmaz is a good pick. They also likely know him some from following Saric.
In short, nothing dumb, didn't overthink the first pick and got one steal and one good value later on, both good fits for the roster too. Really good stuff.
Now he needs to figure out what to do at the point this year, and if Okafor/ Noel needs to go to get one or if he holds on to them all and awaits an opportunity.
He didn't he took the right number 1, he got awesome value at 24 with Luwawu - he was one of my top 10 and a great fit as a potential 3&D wing with great athleticism.
Korkmaz is a nice pick at 26 too, leave him overseas for a year or two he's stil super young and needs to get stronger, but a great shooter potentially off the bench.
I would have loved McCaw over Korkmaz for my perfect picks, but that's splitting hairs, Korkmaz is a good pick. They also likely know him some from following Saric.
In short, nothing dumb, didn't overthink the first pick and got one steal and one good value later on, both good fits for the roster too. Really good stuff.
Now he needs to figure out what to do at the point this year, and if Okafor/ Noel needs to go to get one or if he holds on to them all and awaits an opportunity.
Korkmaz is apparently staying in Turkey for a year. I really like this draft for the Sixers. I'm with you on Luwawu, and I really like Korkmaz- his game is so advanced for one of the youngest guys in the draft. Obviously his shot is his big selling point, but he moves really well without the ball, sees the court well, and is a good passer. He's a couple of years away, but I think his upside is very high for a guy who ended up going #26 in a weak draft.
Not trying to restart the Hinkie debate in this forum, but I thought people would be interested in this long-form article that includes an interview with Hinkie: http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/16597961/sam-hinkie-just-win-tale-process-ultimate-fall. I think there's a lot of good stuff. Here's one bit:
Yeah I thought it was interesting. Some comments that challenge the idea he doesn't know basketball. And I love looking at getting those little edges from things others don't talk about like refs.
I also thought the brand stuff was insightful, how little he was expecting, that they were an omnishambles and was pretty damn impressed when they showed him round.
This is the stuff that makes me long term less worried about free agents etc. They think the worst but esp now the new facilities are up its hard to not have some level of huh wow OK they have been working at stuff in the tanking period. I don't know I'm sure that's wishful. Bottom line if Simmons and Embiid are good free agents will get interested. If not. Not so much.
Saric saying to Croatian papers today that he is coming.
I have a dream of a Embiid, Saric, Simmons, luwawu plus pg whoever being a ridiculously fun passing team that can bang and board. Long way to go of course and remains to be seen if Saric can play d at nba level, and if his shooting improvement is legit, and if Simmons can at d at the 3 and 4 (I think he has the potential). All can PASS shoot tbc!
I also thought the brand stuff was insightful, how little he was expecting, that they were an omnishambles and was pretty damn impressed when they showed him round.
This is the stuff that makes me long term less worried about free agents etc. They think the worst but esp now the new facilities are up its hard to not have some level of huh wow OK they have been working at stuff in the tanking period. I don't know I'm sure that's wishful. Bottom line if Simmons and Embiid are good free agents will get interested. If not. Not so much.
Saric saying to Croatian papers today that he is coming.
I have a dream of a Embiid, Saric, Simmons, luwawu plus pg whoever being a ridiculously fun passing team that can bang and board. Long way to go of course and remains to be seen if Saric can play d at nba level, and if his shooting improvement is legit, and if Simmons can at d at the 3 and 4 (I think he has the potential). All can PASS shoot tbc!
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