Well, I for one think that, if Noel really is on the block, the Celtics should be all in for him. He's a dynamic defensive player / rim protector. No idea what it would take to get him, but the Celtics have tons of ammo if they want to use it.
The sixers and building a winner
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For reference, here's the list of big men under 25, sorted by 2015-16 win shares.
This draft seems fairly deep as for front court player as well, with Bender, Chriss, Skal, Poeltl, Davis, Ellenson, Sabonis, Damian Jones, Zizic, Zubac, Diallo, Cornelie, Brice Johnson, Stone,Qi, Maker, Onuaku, Zimmerman, Bentil, Siakam and Hammonds as potential first rounders.
One guy on that list I was hoping we could get our hands on last summer on the cheap was Meyers Leonard. With his semi-breakout this past year that doesn't seem very likely now. It is true that there is a ton of young big depth around the league and more entering this summer.......Denver has two in Jokic and Nurkic so there may be an opportunity there.
I don't envy Colangelo at all. Yes, most GMs would be envious of all the assets at his disposal, but turning those into a real life basketball team is no easy task. This part of the rebuilding curve is the most challenging and that's illustrated by the pitfalls of a Teague-Noel trade. Noel is young and has immense upside, but Teague is the much better basketball player today and probably for the next few years. When do you cash in potential for the opportunity to actually field a competitive team?
Is Jeff Teague worth a max? Otherwise it's a one year deal!
I don't get it. The best case is Jeff Teague is good next year on a improving young but bad team. Best case. In that case he's signing a huge deal as he enters his decline. Which you kind of have to do as the sixers having given up a big chip to get him.
That's the best case! The worst case is he leaves, next year they are going to suck anyway. Jeff Teague or not. So what the fuck is the point.
Plus the draft next year is stacked with point guard prospects.
Look adding Jeff Teague clearly makes the sixers better next year. I get it. But it's a dumb deal. There's no upside. None.
I don't get it. The best case is Jeff Teague is good next year on a improving young but bad team. Best case. In that case he's signing a huge deal as he enters his decline. Which you kind of have to do as the sixers having given up a big chip to get him.
That's the best case! The worst case is he leaves, next year they are going to suck anyway. Jeff Teague or not. So what the fuck is the point.
Plus the draft next year is stacked with point guard prospects.
Look adding Jeff Teague clearly makes the sixers better next year. I get it. But it's a dumb deal. There's no upside. None.
You're just illustrating the team's conundrum. Of course no one wants to give up significant assets for Jeff Teague, but even midtier point guards come with a price. You can kick the can down the road another year but all you may have to show for it is a potentially overpaid backup center and still no point guard.
If the only move is a Noel/Teague swap I wouldn't be 100% against it (probably closer to 50/50) however I'm in favor of the Teague deal getting done asap, certainly pre-draft, and being only one of at least two good veteran reinforcements. In addition I'm not completely on board with Noel at a max deal in 12 months either......and once Biyombo's mind blowing deal sets the market on bigs I'm thinking that is what it would take to retain Noel long-term as well. Colangelo coming in and extending the delay to field a competitive team isn't what I'm expecting to happen and honestly don't feel like it should. This can be a good Sixer team in as little as 14 months with the appropriate moves.
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Sure and is Teague one of them.
What exactly upgrade does he give over say signing Lin or similar?
What a couple more wins? Great
I don't want anything to do with a 29 year old Teague on a max deal. Horrible use of resources. Horrible
They need a point guard. That is true and needed for the team but it does not need to be a mildly above average starter who is on either on a short deal or really expensive.
Taking a "step forward" by trading assets for things that will make you mediocre is exactly the issue the sixers had for two fucking decades.
It's bullshit and defending it as anything but a be a bit less shit next year is inane and wrong. this team has a chance to be really good. This is exactly how you stop that.
What exactly upgrade does he give over say signing Lin or similar?
What a couple more wins? Great
I don't want anything to do with a 29 year old Teague on a max deal. Horrible use of resources. Horrible
They need a point guard. That is true and needed for the team but it does not need to be a mildly above average starter who is on either on a short deal or really expensive.
Taking a "step forward" by trading assets for things that will make you mediocre is exactly the issue the sixers had for two fucking decades.
It's bullshit and defending it as anything but a be a bit less shit next year is inane and wrong. this team has a chance to be really good. This is exactly how you stop that.
Lin isn't signing there unless they max him or close to it, he has a lot of options and I don't think playing PG for a bad team is on his agenda unless the money is obscene. Also Teague is a better player.
That is in some ways the problem, FAs of any decent caliber are treating PHI like it's Chernobyl.
The Teague deal makes sense if Colangelo thinks he can get a non-max extension done, Teague is a good PG and is unlikely to see some catastrophic decline in the next 4 years. He's not getting maxed in 2017 and his agent knows it, so there is a chance he has talked to his client and Colangelo and they are all comfortable with Teague going to PHI, getting the no-doubt starting slot, and signing a sizeable non-max extension. He gets a starting job and a good contract, PHI gets a good PG and stability without the worry of striking out on a PG in FA next year when they'll need one even more.
I don't think their list of assets is really so impressive, Saric and Embiid are totally unproven on this level, Simmons (presumably) should be very good but is also unproven as of now, Okafor and Noel have been discussed here to death but both are horrendous on one side of the ball to the point where they quite possibly may be net negative players (both are also very young too). If they have all five of those guys on the roster and healthy, they probably can't play more than three of them. They need guards ASAP, and their assets to trade aren't especially tantalizing. Not sure about Noel for Teague specifically (although I like Teague a lot), but that is the kind of thing they need to do.
Why, exactly, is point guard a pressing need? They're about to draft a point forward with elite ball handling and court vision. They should want the ball in Simmons hands.
I have no idea how the Sixers are going to reach the salary floor. Projected cap is 90-92 and they only have 27M or so on the books. The rookies will add another 7 or so, which gets you to 34M. Believe they need to get to 90% of the cap or 80M or so, which means they would need to add about 45M in salary. Otherwise, the players on the roster are going to get a nice bonus.
it's sort of crazy to me to hear that Noel is potentially max player in the near future. The advanced stats seem to say that he is currently a league average player at best. That could be a potentially useful bench player for the Cs or more if he improves, but really only because his best skills are ones that the Cs currently lack.
1. He's a rookie, and almost all rookies suck.
2. They have no NBA starting caliber guards, they need a PG who can both handle some of the distribution, and can shoot.
3. They want to have Simmons play the poor man's Lebron, that works best when you have a second distributor on the floor.
4. Seriously this is the list of guards under contract: STAUSKAS?, TJ McConnell option, Kendall Marshall option, Hollis Thompson (really a SF) option
Of course almost all rookies suck. You know who else sucks? The Sixers with Jeff Teague. They're not going to be good next year. Chances are, they won't be good before Jeff Teague begins to decline. So what's the point of giving up a potentially elite defensive 5 for a guard who takes the ball out of your franchise rookie's hands?
I don't understand what it is about the Sixers in particular that makes so many people so irrational about how they should move forward. Noel is 22, has a ton of upside, and can be controlled for 6 seasons. Teague is 28, about to be an unrestricted free agent, and doesn't really move the needle for them in any substantial way. What does this trade do for them? Get them to 28 wins before Teague either walks in free agency or becomes a shitty contract as he declines? What's the upside?
The idea that Noel is "controlled for 6 seasons" is a real flaw here.
He's controlled if they match his highest bid, which just means that they have to dump Embiid or (maybe and) Okafor.
Sure there is SLIGHTLY more risk in Teague since he can reject you even as the highest bid, but it isn't much and he's the much better player now and likely over the next 3-5 years. There is no reason to think Teague will have a significant decline in the next 3-4 years, and if that isn't within the 76ers timeline to be good then what does it matter, 4 years from now every single contract on the roster will be up, also that will be what an 8 year re-build? That's pretty unacceptable to every owner in the league.
As for taking the ball out of Simmons' hands.... he's a forward, he;s not going to run the point, and making him run the point is a great way to stall out not only his development but that of all the other young guys on the team.
At some point PHI needs to put out a product that resembles a real NBA team, it's essential to building the next contender there on two levels:
1. They need to run a real offense and a real defense to get the most development out of their young talent.
2. They need to give good free agents a reason to go to Philly.
Obviously a trade for a Teague needs to be made with the knowledge that you have a good chance of re-signing him, but the only reason they could even get him for Noel (or maybe Noel plus) is that he needs to be re-signed.
I'm not sure what approach PHI fans are advocating. There is no FA guard that is willing to go there that is of the quality they need to start building this team, so they need to trade for one or waste another season running hot garbage on both ends.
Now if they want guards who are both good and signed long term, it's going to take significantly more than Noel. Do they offer up draft picks? Okafor? A combination of both? Who is the reasonable target?
1. That's not a flawed idea. Fundamentally, the Sixers can control Noel for 6 years if they choose to do so. They have the ability to match the highest bid. With Teague, they have to be the highest bid. Likely substantially. The assumption that Noel will be overpaid isn't a certainty at all. I'm honestly just sort of baffled that there are people here making the argument that Noel's status as a RFA is somehow impacting his value, while completely glossing over the fact that Teague will be a UFA at 29. What's his motivation to sign in Philly long term? And why does matching on Noel necessitate "dumping" Embiid and Okafor? They've got like 85 million dollars in cap space projected that season.
2. Simmons is a point forward. He'll run the point just as Gianni's does in Milwaukee. It's his ideal use case, and giving him experience doing so is the key to his development. Not a way to stall it.
3. If your plan for getting veteran free agents to sign with your team includes Jeff Teague, you don't have a plan for getting veteran free agents to sign with your team.
4. The Sixers with Jeff Teague are still hot garbage on both ends. Albeit slightly less hot.
5. You need to see what you have in Simmons, Saric and Embiid before you cash in a valuable trade chip for a mediocre point guard just because it's a position of need. Overpay Brandon Jennings or Rondo. Take a flier on Ty Lawson. Hell, see if Chicago is willing to move on from Rose yet. They can absorb his entire salary easily. Do any of those guys make them better than Teague would? Probably not. But they cost less to acquire, and don't necessitate giving up a 22 year old with a very rare skill set.
So a few thoughts. Biyombo had hands of stone, which have now progressed to oak. When he was on a team that won a grand total of 21 games in his second NBA season and was being force fed minutes, he still only put up 6.7 per 36. Whereas Noel was at 13.7 at a 52% clip in similar circumstances. I also disagree with your premise that he was only putting up those numbers because he was on a putrid team. Pair him with an above average point guard and I think his scoring would hold up even on a playoff team. If all he can do on offense is roll to the rim and finish at an efficient rate, that has value in this league.
As to the passing and steals, those stats really tell the tale. It is not just that Noel has more steals, his steal rate is elite (which goes to his hands). He is up there with Paul, Tony Allen and Steph. The next closest centers (who play comparable minutes) are Cousins and Drummond are at 1.6. With respect to assists, he is nothing special (though fine for a 5), but Biyombo was and remains atrocious. This year he averaged .6 per 36 minutes, which puts him at 457 out of 476 NBA players.
With all that being said, Biyombo is going to get paid this summer. Prognosticators are pegging him at 16-17 million. If that is the market rate for a center a rim protector/rebounder with very limited offense and, given his time in the league and the questions about his actual age, relatively upside on that end of the court, then Noel on a RFA max contract remains an asset. I can't see why you give up that asset for the right to give Jeff Teague 30% of your cap for his age 29-34 seasons.
I've still yet to see a reasonable answer for how the Sixers get an NBA rotation quality guard (they really need 3) on that team.
Or how they develop young players with a roster where by far the 5 best players all are probably best playing either the 4 or the 5.
Also if they run the offense through Ben Simmons the way MIL did w/ Giannis and don't have a PG they may actually win less games next year than this year. He can't shoot a jumper and he's not going to beat good wing defenders off the dribble. Also they'll get shredded at the other end if they try and have him defending a guard. Their defense is almost certain to be a disaster anyway I guess since Okafor and Embiid likely can only guard (or "guard" in Okafor's case) centers, and Noel is best at C but can guard most PF, Simmons can't guard anyone, but he's best on PF, and Saric, will guard SF poorly or PF decently.
I find it interesting how Sixers fans talked all last year about how important Ish Smith was because running a well below average point guard out there helped develop the big men over the previous stretch of running out non-NBA caliber PGs, but then when it comes time to actually spend assets or money on competence...... "well actually running real offense isn't that important to development, we should run out a good passing rookie PF, that's totally not going to impact the ability of Noel to roll to the rim, or Okafor to post up."
For humor value though I'm leaning towards hoping they really do that. Watching Ben Simmons hold the ball at 18 feet while 5 players guard the paint will be fun. Maybe they'll run some clown car PnR with 2 non-shooting bigs.
Or how they develop young players with a roster where by far the 5 best players all are probably best playing either the 4 or the 5.
Also if they run the offense through Ben Simmons the way MIL did w/ Giannis and don't have a PG they may actually win less games next year than this year. He can't shoot a jumper and he's not going to beat good wing defenders off the dribble. Also they'll get shredded at the other end if they try and have him defending a guard. Their defense is almost certain to be a disaster anyway I guess since Okafor and Embiid likely can only guard (or "guard" in Okafor's case) centers, and Noel is best at C but can guard most PF, Simmons can't guard anyone, but he's best on PF, and Saric, will guard SF poorly or PF decently.
I find it interesting how Sixers fans talked all last year about how important Ish Smith was because running a well below average point guard out there helped develop the big men over the previous stretch of running out non-NBA caliber PGs, but then when it comes time to actually spend assets or money on competence...... "well actually running real offense isn't that important to development, we should run out a good passing rookie PF, that's totally not going to impact the ability of Noel to roll to the rim, or Okafor to post up."
For humor value though I'm leaning towards hoping they really do that. Watching Ben Simmons hold the ball at 18 feet while 5 players guard the paint will be fun. Maybe they'll run some clown car PnR with 2 non-shooting bigs.
So you just ignored the part where I suggested acquiring those other point guards? Their options are now trade for Jeff Teague or not have guards on their roster? And you're completely oblivious to how Simmons will be used. He's a point forward. Even with Teague on their roster, he'll run the offense a lot.
You don't trade quality young bigs with upside for mediocre point guards a year away from unrestricted free agency. Especially when you're rebuilding. It makes no sense. Again: they should over pay for a competent guard in free agency. They shouldn't give up actual, on-the-court assets for a rental of Jeff Teague.
Sorry I missed those suggestions:
1. Absolutely you can overpay Rondo or Jennings, but given that everyone has a ton of cap we're talking a LOT of money and 3 or 4 years. Why you would give either of those guys a big contract over Teague I have no idea.
2. Ty Lawson- why would he go to PHI? I guess if they offered an insane amount of money, but his past actions indicate he wants to play for a playoff team, and he hasn't been good in a while.
3. Derrick Rose- doubtful he gets traded, but eating his salary has no value, tons of cap space out there, the Bulls are going to expect real assets in return and he has the same problem of being expiring while also not being as good as Teague.
This is the exact issue I brought up. They can overpay someone bad, or they can overpay Teague who is good, and the bad player will likely be very bad since few players want to go to PHI.
The cost of that upgrade is one year of Noel and the right to overpay him, now if you think he's very valuable that's a bad price, but many people don't think his value is that high.
I've made clear several times that they wouldn't do this deal unless they had been given indications Teague would extend.
Also you're underrating Teague, he's a good PG. He'd be the second best PG in this year's FA class, and probably the best option in 2017 (RWB ain't walking through that door).
1. Absolutely you can overpay Rondo or Jennings, but given that everyone has a ton of cap we're talking a LOT of money and 3 or 4 years. Why you would give either of those guys a big contract over Teague I have no idea.
2. Ty Lawson- why would he go to PHI? I guess if they offered an insane amount of money, but his past actions indicate he wants to play for a playoff team, and he hasn't been good in a while.
3. Derrick Rose- doubtful he gets traded, but eating his salary has no value, tons of cap space out there, the Bulls are going to expect real assets in return and he has the same problem of being expiring while also not being as good as Teague.
This is the exact issue I brought up. They can overpay someone bad, or they can overpay Teague who is good, and the bad player will likely be very bad since few players want to go to PHI.
The cost of that upgrade is one year of Noel and the right to overpay him, now if you think he's very valuable that's a bad price, but many people don't think his value is that high.
I've made clear several times that they wouldn't do this deal unless they had been given indications Teague would extend.
Also you're underrating Teague, he's a good PG. He'd be the second best PG in this year's FA class, and probably the best option in 2017 (RWB ain't walking through that door).
Offer Brandon Jennings or Deron Williams way over market value on a 2 year deal. Talk to Phoenix about Archie Goodwin. Sign Tim Frazier, who put up good numbers on the Pelicans late in the year. Wait another year and over pay George Hill on a short term deal.
Of course the Sixers have the ability to retain Noel, but should they want to? RFA contracts can go as high as 25% of the salary cap. How much is Noel worth to the Sixers next year? $40M/4 years? $60M/5 years? The RFA is a real advantage when you are trying to retain an elite player, but Noel is not one of those players. This puts them, essentially, in the same position the Pelicans found themselves when they matched on Eric Gordon.
Teague is essentially a league average starter. And while it would behoove the Sixers to acquire someone with higher upside, those guys are unavailable. They also have very little leverage at this point, having stripped the roster and with bills coming due for their recent draft selections. Aggressively shopping their few remaining assets doesn't help, but I'm not sure there's a good way out for the Sixers. Amassing draft picks in a historically shitty run of drafts did not do them any favors.
Teague is essentially a league average starter. And while it would behoove the Sixers to acquire someone with higher upside, those guys are unavailable. They also have very little leverage at this point, having stripped the roster and with bills coming due for their recent draft selections. Aggressively shopping their few remaining assets doesn't help, but I'm not sure there's a good way out for the Sixers. Amassing draft picks in a historically shitty run of drafts did not do them any favors.
You sign Noel to that deal easily. You can move him if you need to and the cap jumps so his contact won't be a big issue.
Also as I linked above he's got all the signs of bring a defensive anchor at 5, very very few players have done what he has at his age. He's also fine offensively. He doesn't need the ball and is efficient.
G&M is right on the money here. Teague isn't worth the asset. Period. You don't need a primary ball handler due to Simmons . You don't need a long term solution this year. You need someone who can pass and play defense and preferably shoot when left alone, for a year. Or a solid average vet who can do that at help.
I am still waiting for why you want to be a little tiny bit better next year and why you want to have a max or next max aging Teague after.
It's not that Teague is bad, it's that he doesn't matter and isn't a long term solution. Also you guys are totally wrong about Noel. Hes good. He could be very good. He's controlled and the cap jumps so his contracy just isn't going to be an issue.
Also as I linked above he's got all the signs of bring a defensive anchor at 5, very very few players have done what he has at his age. He's also fine offensively. He doesn't need the ball and is efficient.
G&M is right on the money here. Teague isn't worth the asset. Period. You don't need a primary ball handler due to Simmons . You don't need a long term solution this year. You need someone who can pass and play defense and preferably shoot when left alone, for a year. Or a solid average vet who can do that at help.
I am still waiting for why you want to be a little tiny bit better next year and why you want to have a max or next max aging Teague after.
It's not that Teague is bad, it's that he doesn't matter and isn't a long term solution. Also you guys are totally wrong about Noel. Hes good. He could be very good. He's controlled and the cap jumps so his contracy just isn't going to be an issue.
With the caveat that judging players based on performance with the 76ers is pretty unfair...No, he's not fine offensively, and he's not efficient. This is visible in box-score stats (oBPM of -2.7, which is the 7th worst mark of anyone with at least 1500 minutes), and even worse in the adjusted plus/minus stats (-3.29 oRPM). There are a bunch of reasons for that, but in large part, it's because he's not very efficient for a big, and he turns the ball over all the time.
Again, the Sixers are a tough spot, and playing alongside Okafor was an especially bad idea, but his offense is a real problem. He's got a long ways to go there.
This is, of course, the conundrum. The discussion is less about Teague specifically and more about finding Teague like players because they are going to need 2 or 3 competent backcourt players and today they have zero.
1. Because their big contracts just cost you money. Teague's big contract costs you money and Nerlens Noel.
2. Ty Lawson's a mess right now and likely won't get another offer to start in the NBA. He's a perfect candidate for a Rondo-type 1 year deal to re-establish his value as an NBA starter.
3. I suspect you're right that the Bulls would want real assets, as wrong as they are.
4. You keep saying, as a statement of fact, that Noel will get overpaid. It's a possibility, sure, but not at all a certainty. If your entire argument in this thread rests on the assumption that Noel's upcoming RFA is a bad thing for the Sixers (or a team that acquires him) because it necessarily means he'll be overpaid, that's a huge logical flaw. In order for that to happen, a team with a glaring need for a defense only 5 would have to tie up a week's worth of payroll making a big offer to a guy they know can be matched anyhow. We see instances like Pekovic not getting a single offer in RFA just as often as we see situations like Jeremy Lin's poison pill and Enes Kanter's max offer from Portland. I would much, much prefer to gamble on Noel in the RFA market than gamble on Teague as a UFA. Teague's last contract paid him 8 million a year. He'll be looking for his first, and last, big deal. Do you really want to be the team that gives it to him? And pays the price of Noel to do so?
By the way, on the court, this Teague upgrade leaves Philly with the worst front court defense in the NBA by a wide margin. Maybe Embiid is good. I don't know. Nobody does. He projects as a plus defender. So did Greg Oden. Beyond that, you've got all sorts of Okafor/Simmons and Okafor/Saric lineups that are going to get destroyed defensively mad on the boards. They are, with or without Teague, a very bad team. And while Teague solves a problem for them, he solves a problem that isn't worth the cost, and for which there are plenty of other solutions available. Lawson and Jennings are both gettable. They won't get many if any other offers to start, and you can pay them whatever considering you're 58 million dollars below the salary floor. You can also look into turning Okafor into Dunn or Murray, or try and turn your two late firsts into Tyler Ulis. You could turn one of those picks into a veteran PG like Darren Collison pretty easily. You could sign Mario Chalmers. There are options. A lot of them. And the Jeff Teague option is the most expensive and risky option. It risks plugging a single hole, for a single year, in a roster with a half dozen just as crippling holes.
I'm basically done on this.
One note. The reason I say Noel will get overpaid...that's what almost always happens with young big men, restricted guys tend to get big contracts because it's the only way to steal them away and he is a FA in the biggest cap year ever....right before the cap starts to go down again.
One note. The reason I say Noel will get overpaid...that's what almost always happens with young big men, restricted guys tend to get big contracts because it's the only way to steal them away and he is a FA in the biggest cap year ever....right before the cap starts to go down again.
Yeah, me too. You're just making shit up. The cap will continue to rise beyond that year, and you're responding to a post in which I literally just pointed out that there are plenty of instances in which RFAs end up underpaid because teams know they won't move. You're basically just putting your fingers in your ears and going "Noel will be overpaid" and refusing to respond to the many logical points suggesting that he may not be, while Teague almost certainly will be.
Go look at the cap projections. The NBA expects 2017-18 to be the cap peak before a decline.
89 to 108 in the next three seasons. Slight dip the following year, followed by two additional increases:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/2015/04/18/rising-salary-cap-luxury-tax-threshold-dollar-amounts/25974437/
If the Sixers choose Simmons, which they'll have to with 0 NBA guards on the roster, and maintain a death grip on their current prospects holding out for a monster return on a roleplaying center, they'll enter 2017 with three Cs and two PFs on the roster. And needing to play Simmons 35 minutes a night to run the offense.
One of their three centers will get a chance to catch up on their reading sitting on the end of the bench. So there's that. Now let's say that one offers them an all star or top five pick for Noel (which is basically what's going to happen, in this center market no one is mortgaging their franchise's future for a potential high end roleplayer), what then? You match his RFA offer? Then Embiid the year after? Holding out hope that someone will overpay for them? Good luck with that.
Luckily the new management is in this to turn the team around and not just keep losing until the next LeBron drops into their laps.
One of their three centers will get a chance to catch up on their reading sitting on the end of the bench. So there's that. Now let's say that one offers them an all star or top five pick for Noel (which is basically what's going to happen, in this center market no one is mortgaging their franchise's future for a potential high end roleplayer), what then? You match his RFA offer? Then Embiid the year after? Holding out hope that someone will overpay for them? Good luck with that.
Luckily the new management is in this to turn the team around and not just keep losing until the next LeBron drops into their laps.
I'm assuming you left out a "no" in front of the "one" in the bolded above, but there's plenty of room between "an all-star or top five pick", and one year of Jeff Teague. If I'm a Sixers fan, I'd much rather hold on to Noel to see if I can get something better, sign a vet scrub, hope Ullis or Jackson is there at 24, and if not, take a flyer on Felder or Barber at 26.
I'm with you on pretty much everything you've posted here so far, but if the Jeff Taylor suspension is any indication of how Silver is treating DV incidents, Collison could be missing significant time next year.
Indeed. The perils of SOSHing via iPhone.
The simple fact is that none of their centers have that much value, and now they have way too many of them. If they're not bringing in a vet point guard they pretty much have to draft Simmons, and then the 2017 Sixers would have five players at the PF/C spots that need developmental playing time and not nearly enough minutes to go around. As I've said, the center position is sort of flooded at the moment, roleplaying centers don't have much trade value. So holding on to them in the desperate hope that a seven foot apocalypse is going to strike the NBA and make your declining asset suddenly valuable again is wishcasting.
If the Atlanta/Philly trade were to go through, it would make some sense for both teams. The Hawks would be accepting a one year drop out of the playoff picture to hope that Schroeder plays his way into the second tier of PGs and that Noel turns into not the worst offensive starter in the NBA and that whomever they draft next year can help put the ship right. The 76ers meanwhile would get a stabilizing veteran influence that can help Simmons learn how to manage an NBA offense and hope that the team improves enough that they can be a factor in the 2017 free agent market.
And yet, Bismack Biyombo's going to get 15 million dollars a year this offseason. And Hassan Whiteside will get a max deal. And last summer, the Clippers literally barricaded DeAndre Jordan in his house to keep him from signing with Dallas. Yeah, seems like the league's pretty lukewarm on the value of defense first centers.
Whiteside might get max money, but because Miami's over the cap and needs to keep him (unless someone decides to gamble on Bosh). And you've just unknowingly illustrated why Noel's a declining asset. Take a look at the short list of teams without a workable center, and understand that one of them is likely to just sign a free agent instead.
Teams without a good defensive center: Cleveland, Atlanta(Horford's free agency pending, of course), Chicago, Orlando, Dallas, Houston (assuming Howard leaves), Boston and the Lakers.
Teams that are reasonably well covered at center but for whom Noel would present an upgrade defensively: Charlotte (and Jefferson's a free agenct), Washington, New and Orleans.
So basically a third of the league. Meanwhile, teams like Miami, Charlotte, and Washington have free agent centers that could end up elsewhere.
So, we'll have to agree to disagree on the center market at the moment.
Honestly I was shocked that they didn't trade him the moment he was healthy last winter. It's obvious that neither Love nor Irving are capable of being a third banana. And you can't hide both Love and Irving defensively if they have to play together. Philly could swing a three way deal using future draft picks for Irving, I guess the question is what perimeter players are available that would work for the Cavs.
Well, again, even if the pending free agents leave teams, they're going to other teams without centers, so your list is still overstating the market. And seven is not 1/3 of 30. Also, Chicago has Bobby Portis, who's already better than Noel, and Orlando isn't giving up major chits to improve the back up center spot. Sorry.
If Noel had any offensive game at all, there'd be more of a market, but he's basically non-existant there. Which is why the Sixers are having trouble finding a match. If Noel were a SG/SF? All 30 teams would be interested. But at best you've cobbled together a list of 6-8 teams, 2-4 of which are going to just sign free agents instead of mortgaging the future for a roleplayer. And that's assuming they just don't draft their reoleplayer instead (as Boston is likely to).
Forget it, don't know why I even bother engage with you. There's no need in the league for defense minded centers and the entire league has one. Like Bobby Portis, who played 14% of his minutes at the 5, and put up a solid 108.0 defensive rating there.
Well, even if nightbob isn't sold on the reasoning, I tend to agree with you, G&MB... Noel strikes me as someone who's being underrated a bit because of the way Philadelphia uses him, and I think the market for him should be better than Teague. He could end up being a Ben Wallace - a limited offensive player whose defense is so -good- that his overall value is that of an all-star, and I think that's worth more than a Teague, especially at his age and that centers like that don't really mature till... how old is DeAndre Jordan now, 26?
that's exactly it DavidTai. He profiles as a potential Jordan/ Wallace type. Dunks, alley oops (simmons is perfect for this) while anchoring the defence. That's assuming Embiid isn't killing it and making him a roleplayer, but he's goign to be imo tradable easily if he pans out and so does Embiid.
I'd trade Okafor, as he needs the ball and is a problem defensively. He could improve but I worry his rebounding just looks poor, visually and stats, and he is going to be a problem defending the pick and roll. Maybe he can improve, but next to Simmons Noel looks like a better fit. I think Okafor is going to be a stud offensively, but if he can't stay on the court defensively, or at least crush the boards, I don't know
I'd trade Okafor, as he needs the ball and is a problem defensively. He could improve but I worry his rebounding just looks poor, visually and stats, and he is going to be a problem defending the pick and roll. Maybe he can improve, but next to Simmons Noel looks like a better fit. I think Okafor is going to be a stud offensively, but if he can't stay on the court defensively, or at least crush the boards, I don't know
Y'all are talking past each other. Noel's value is dependent on the context in which it is being discussed. For example, Noel isn't going to fetch full trade value because teams think that the 76ers have to deal. Also, if Colangelo wants to win - or at least be somewhat respectable - now, Noel has a lot less value; however, it's true that if management is willing to go through another 20 (or less) win season again, they should keep Noel and see whether or how he grows.
One thing that may be factoring into Colangelo's thinking is that given the questions about Simmons' attitude and competitiveness - everyone on this board knows about these - it is probably helpful from a development perspective to have an upper-tier PG from whom Simmons can learn without being forced to give the ball to Simmons 30 mpg.
One thing that may be factoring into Colangelo's thinking is that given the questions about Simmons' attitude and competitiveness - everyone on this board knows about these - it is probably helpful from a development perspective to have an upper-tier PG from whom Simmons can learn without being forced to give the ball to Simmons 30 mpg.
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