The Really Early Question About Stephen Wright Post E-Rod Return

[Drek717]

In other words you feel that Buchholz' place in the rotation is more threatened than Wright's at the moment? Not sure I agree. If you asked me which guy would be out of a job if he got shelled in 5 consecutive starts my answer would not be Clay Buchholz

I'll frame my view with this hypothetical:
Lets assume that Eduardo Rodriguez needs three rehab starts before returning to the majors.

Lets assume that in that time the current starters pitch like they have for another three turns through, meanwhile Owens has three solid starts.

At that point do I think Dombrowski is going to just cut bait with Buchholz? No. He'll send Owens back down, obviously. But Buchholz is on a one year deal with an option for 2017. I'd expect Dombrowski to let him keep his spot in the rotation for as long as it takes to find a team willing to give something for him and if he continues to be the mercurial Buchholz we've seen for the vast majority of his career by mid to late June he'll basically be hunting for someone just willing to take the salary, baring another injury (which is, obviously, pretty likely).

Clay won't get demoted/released, but to me he is the guy Dombrowski will be fastest to cut bait on, barring a return to his early 2013 form or some approximation thereof. He isn't Dombrowski's guy, the rotation has a #1 in Price and they believe they're just additional recovery time from having a #2 in Rodriguez. Porcello has picked up where he left off 2015, looking like a very good #3 or better, and Wright is having repeated success as a starter for peanuts in salary. The last thing the FO should want with how this offense looks so far is someone who is as likely to give up 5 runs over 4 innings as he is to go six scoreless. He's more likely to squander a good game at the plate with a bad outing than he is to throw a gem when the offense needs to be picked up, simply because they aren't going to need to be picked up as much as they'll need to just not be let down. That's the rub with Clay. For him more than any pitcher I can recall his metrics for runs allowed are more an average than an "average game". He gets shelled or he kills and rarely finds any middle ground.

We'll see test #4 this afternoon. If bad Buch shows up more often than good Buch I don't think Dombrowski is going to sit on his hands and watch the team flip a coin every five games while they're consistently scoring 4+ runs a game.

Buchholz pitches today, Owens on Sunday.

Yes, my mistake, looking forward to Owens' return to the majors too much for my own good.

I think Kelly has to be the odd man out once he returns from the DL. Wright has been pitching great. It would hurt the 2016 team to have him in the pen.

My hope/belief is that following this call-up Owens will have thoroughly eliminated the chances of us seeing another Joe Kelly start short of a Permo-Triassic level extinction of starting pitchers. He needs to go straight to the 'pen upon his return until Owens, Elias, and probably Johnson all get a shot before him. Hell, I'd rather see the new release point Stank get a call up if he continues his early AA success before watching Joe Kelly throw 97 mph heat at a batter's ear hole again. I didn't think I could hate that trade more than I did when it was first made, but the continued insistence to start Kelly sure is trying to make me feel otherwise.

 

[EllisTheRimMan]

In other words you feel that Buchholz' place in the rotation is more threatened than Wright's at the moment? Not sure I agree. If you asked me which guy would be out of a job if he got shelled in 5 consecutive starts my answer would not be Clay Buchholz

Care to elaborate, because I couldn't disagree more. Also,your hypothetical is silly. Stephen Wright is far less likely to lose it for 5 straight games than sweaty/twitchy Clay is. Wright is unlikely to remain the best SP in the rotation that he's been so far, but 5 games in a row of getting blasted seems very unlikely too.

 

[Rasputin]

Care to elaborate, because I couldn't disagree more. Also,your hypothetical is silly. Stephen Wright is far less likely to lose it for 5 straight games than sweaty/twitchy Clay is. Wright is unlikely to remain the best SP in the rotation that he's been so far, but 5 games in a row of getting blasted seems very unlikely too.

You have absolutely nothing to back that up with. Steven Wright has made a total of 14 starts in the major leagues.

Clay Buchholz doesn't have a history of simply losing it for long stretches. You wanna say he's less likely to pitch 33 games in a season, go right ahead. Not liking a guy is no reason to make up shit about him.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I'd really like to see Wright get a good run of every-five-day starts without looking over his shoulder. He has something that's starting to take shape as a body of work and it's pretty promising. 12 starts now in two years. 73.1 innings as a starter. So better than 6 innings per start. 26 ER in those starts. So, he's averaging significantly better than a quality start per start, and his only truly bad start was last year after he had gone months between starts and 29 days between big league pitches.

Still early days, but at this point I think you have to tell him he's getting the ball every five days and see if having a regular mlb gig for the first time ever adds stability, because we could do far worse than six plus innings of 4.00 to 4.25 FIP pitching every five games and for so long as that's what we're getting I'd agree with the poster who said to keep riding the horse.

 

[In my lifetime]

Even though the MRI found no structural damage, there seems to be little chance for Kelly to rejoin the club immediately after his 15 day DL stint. I would guess 6-8 weeks is optimistic. Thus there is unlikely to be a decision that needs to be made regarding Wright/Kelly/ERod until June 1st. Unfortunately by then there is a significant chance that another pitcher is hurt or Kelly/ERod need more time to recover. At this point the RS would be very fortunate to be in a position to select the 4th/5th starter out of Wright/Kelly/ERod, and certainly by the time a decision needs to be made it is likely to be much more clear based on performance after another 6 or so starts.

 

[dbn]

I agree with the others that Wright needs to stay in the rotation until/unless he no longer is performing better than at least 5 other starters. I'm not expecting a 2002 Wakefield- or a 2012 Dikey-like season, but it could happen. Or he could turn into a pumpkin. Until he starts looking orange, though, he takes the mound every 5th game.

There is a good chance that Plimpton's post is prescient, but it's still good to speculate about who is likely to be the 5th best of the starters that actually are healthy, so I'm glad for the Elias/Owens discussion.

 

[EllisTheRimMan]

You have absolutely nothing to back that up with. Steven Wright has made a total of 14 starts in the major leagues.

Clay Buchholz doesn't have a history of simply losing it for long stretches. You wanna say he's less likely to pitch 33 games in a season, go right ahead. Not liking a guy is no reason to make up shit about him.

You're right. I should have stopped at disagreeing that Wright should be taken out of the rotation when Rodriguez is back.

 

[Rasputin]

You're right. I should have stopped at disagreeing that Wright should be taken out of the rotation when Rodriguez is back.

I think the real question is what happens when Joe Kelly comes back.

If Price, Porcello, Wright, Buchholz, and Rodriguez are pitching well, do we say hello to Joe Kelly, Bullpen Ace?

 

[EllisTheRimMan]

If only we get to debate that scenario heatedly.

 

[Rasputin]

If only we get to debate that scenario heatedly.

I'm about five good starts from Henry Owens away from advocating trading Buccholz at the deadline.

 

[NoXInNixon]

I'm about five good starts from Henry Owens away from advocating trading Buccholz at the deadline.

As if anyone would give them anything for Buchholz.

 

[grimshaw]

You have absolutely nothing to back that up with. Steven Wright has made a total of 14 starts in the major leagues.

Clay Buchholz doesn't have a history of simply losing it for long stretches. You wanna say he's less likely to pitch 33 games in a season, go right ahead. Not liking a guy is no reason to make up shit about him.

Clay has had 11 months in his career with ERA's over 5. He positively has that history,

 

[Drek717]

You have absolutely nothing to back that up with. Steven Wright has made a total of 14 starts in the major leagues.

Clay Buchholz doesn't have a history of simply losing it for long stretches. You wanna say he's less likely to pitch 33 games in a season, go right ahead. Not liking a guy is no reason to make up shit about him.

In 2012 Buchholz opened the year with six straight games in which he allowed 5 or more earned runs. In 2014 he had a four game stretch where he allowed 4 or more runs every game. I wouldn't disagree that durability is by far his biggest weakness as a starter, but he is also a guy who has failed to deliver a quality start for a month or more at a time in multiple seasons. 2010 is the only season where he has made it more than 20 starts and not had a month long run of failure thrown in the middle.

A prolonged stretch of bad starts is probably a trait any pitcher posting a mid-4's or worse ERA would exhibit mind you, but then if Clay Buccholz has the consistency typical of a mid-4's ERA starter that kind of underscores the whole point here, because he's supposed to be something better than that.

I think the real question is what happens when Joe Kelly comes back.

If Price, Porcello, Wright, Buchholz, and Rodriguez are pitching well, do we say hello to Joe Kelly, Bullpen Ace?

I'd take passable bullpen contributor myself, "ace" is not a word we should be using in reference to Kelly in any baseball related context at this point.

I hope the club re-aligns the rotation as keeping a Wright then Buccholz alignment may be hiding the statistically demonstrated post-knuckleballer bump Wright may or may not offer, which has some tangible value in assessing how best to use Wright, within Buccholz' inconsistencies.

 

[Rasputin]

As if anyone would give them anything for Buchholz.

Of course they would.

If Buchholz is healthy at the deadline there would likely be several teams looking for him and his very affordable contract option for next season.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Of course they would.

If Buchholz is healthy at the deadline there would likely be several teams looking for him and his very affordable contract option for next season.

Is he pitching well in this scenario or just taking the hill? Because I'm failing to see a scenario where he's pitching well enough to garner any trade value, but poorly enough that we wouldn't want him on the team.

Clay's option at $13.5M is certainly very reasonable but it cuts both ways. It's not worth it if he's making 20 starts and it's not worth it if he's got an era over 5. It has very little value right now on the trade market and if he performs to level to change that, why would you trade him?

 

[Drek717]

Is he pitching well in this scenario or just taking the hill? Because I'm failing to see a scenario where he's pitching well enough to garner any trade value, but poorly enough that we wouldn't want him on the team.

Clay's option at $13.5M is certainly very reasonable but it cuts both ways. It's not worth it if he's making 20 starts and it's not worth it if he's got an era over 5. It has very little value right now on the trade market and if he performs to level to change that, why would you trade him?

The ability to move Buccholz, even with an ERA in the 5's, for "anything" depends on what you define as anything. An open spot on the 40 man is something of value. Not having to pay him the rest of the season is something of value.

Buccholz is making $13M this season and has an option for $13.5M next season. If the Sox need to get him off the roster they'll likely be able to do so at basically any point up to the trade deadline because there has been, currently is, and will always be a shortage of worthwhile starters. Getting a half-season rental of Buccholz for $6M along with the option allows for an in-house assessment, something many teams would see as a good risk/reward play. Worst case scenario he's repulsively bad and earns his $500K opt out. Mid-range he shows flashes and his option is worth a pittance to another team, avoiding the $500K buyout and maybe getting something non-useless piece back. Best case he suddenly puts it together late and is either worth something in the winter or a solid one year bargain play for 2017.

Could the Sox get something more than unloading his salary and freeing up his roster spot? Not if he's pitching like he has so far. But then I think this board has a tendency to overstate Clay's peak value anyway. He's a gamble play regardless of how he's currently pitching and I don't think anything he does short of pushing his ERA north of 6 is going to particularly change that. There is no Eduardo Rodriguez deal out there in the making for him or even a Yoenis Cespedes kind of swap. Maybe a Joe Kelly + Allen Craig kind of transaction though...

 

[Devizier]

Is Buchholz even healthy right now? His control, never his strongest suit, is horrible right now. His fastball velocity is down (not hugely, but a bit). Given his history of wild performance swings and missed time, is it hard to imagine that he's the kind of guy who tried to pitch through injury?

 

[whatittakes]

he's demostrated a willingness to pitch through injury in the past, it's just that his propensity for simply getting injured in the first place, surpasses the level of injury he can play through.

He's also demonstrated a tendency to want to come back as fast as possible even when that hasn't been advisable, I seem to recall he came back too soon a couple times the first time the injury issues really reared their heads and wound up missing even more time as a result.

 

[FinanceAdvice]

Does anyone know if Wakefield has some official Sox role as a coach for Wright? The Sox would be foolish not to do this. I remember hearing that when Wake struggled early in his career after bursting onto the scene with the Pirates he credited Phil Neikro for helping him right the ship. Something along the lines of the best/only pitching coach for a knuckleballer is another knuckleballer who's had MLB success.

Yes. I'v read at least one article on the main board that said Wright has credited Wakefield with helping him. It's a little different knuckler than Wake as it's more along the lines of a Dickey knuckler but his ideas, approaches and techniques have definitely help Wright. Wright went on to say he was humbled and flattered that Wake would take time out to travel and work with him.

 

[doctorogres]

A really nice story on WEEI about scouting Wright, and Wake's role in it.

It was the first month of the 2011 season and Sox scouting chiefs Allard Baird and Jared Porter had scheduled the kind of conference call they conducted two or three times a year with their scouts. They were called "chalk talks," and focused on specific aspects of the game the participants might want to take a different look at. As Lombardo explains it, "a chance to hash things out and talk about things we normally don't talk about."

This time around was a bit different, not only because the subject was the art of throwing a knuckleball, but because Baird was bringing an active player onto the call: Tim Wakefield.

"An hour later I come out of that chalk talk with three pages of notes about what makes a good knuckleballer, what to look for in a good knuckleballer, what are the signs and the things you should look for when you're evaluating the next Wakefield," Lombardo remembered. "You put this in the back of your pocket and you realize in all the years you've been doing this I haven't really seen a knuckleballer. So you think about it, but you realize the odds that this is going to happen are slim and none. But you if you see something, whether it's a guy playing catch or an outfielder joking around with it, let's jump on it and bring it to our attention."

 

[FinanceAdvice]

Wright is the only -- that's right, I said ONLY -- starter on the Sox with an ERA+ over 100.

He stays.

Plus I believe he has the lowest WHIP of 1.20. I like the knuckleball and agree he should stay. Hannigan likely to be his catcher?

 

[RIrooter09]

But there's no particular reason to think Owens is coming up to get shelled. In 7 of his 11 outings in the bigs last year, he allowed 3 runs or fewer, and he went 5 innings or more in 9, and 6 innings or more in 5.

On the list of guys in the minors who are in line to take a starting role with the big club, Henry Owens is at the top of the list. I think that means that when the timing of starts allows--and it does now--he's the one that gets the call.

To put it slightly differently, he's the one who is most likely to take the job permanently.

One start, one shelling. Glad he was up to work on those control issues at the major league level.

 

[Plympton91]

Like I said in the same thread, unless his change up is really a generational pitch, there's just no way he's ever a consistent starter with that low velocity and borderline at best breaking stuff. Maybe he should go to one of those places like the one that added back 3-5 mph to Kasmir's fastball.

 

[Drek717]

One start, one shelling. Glad he was up to work on those control issues at the major league level.

He isn't going to fix those control issues in AAA where he can walk two then strike out the side to get away with it.

I'd like to see them consider using him out of the bullpen the rest of the season once Rodriguez comes back, letting him transition to the majors like Johan Santana did, as one example. He needs to learn how to face ML pitching because his change is good enough to let him get away with not growing his arsenal further in AAA. He'll either never develop the fastball command and/or complimentary curve/slider to be a starter and we'll have that proven against ML hitters or he won't and at worst he's probably a good LH relief pitcher with pretty neutral splits.

 

[EllisTheRimMan]

He isn't going to fix those control issues in AAA where he can walk two then strike out the side to get away with it.

I'd like to see them consider using him out of the bullpen the rest of the season once Rodriguez comes back, letting him transition to the majors like Johan Santana did, as one example. He needs to learn how to face ML pitching because his change is good enough to let him get away with not growing his arsenal further in AAA. He'll either never develop the fastball command and/or complimentary curve/slider to be a starter and we'll have that proven against ML hitters or he won't and at worst he's probably a good LH relief pitcher with pretty neutral splits.

I like the idea. Who does he replace assuming Kelly may be part of the BP mix as well?

 

[whatittakes]

We're going to be pulling relievers up and down all year if trends continue as they started. Don't envy the Pawtucket manager, half his guys some days will have great big "DO NOT USE" signs on them because they're resting up from the latest big league gig.

 

[EllisTheRimMan]

Red Sox Report has a special on Wake's career now (very thorough). Apropos for this thread. I really want to believe that Wright has the chance to have Timneh as a comp.

 

[whatittakes]

Red Sox Report has a special on Wake's career now (very thorough). Apropos for this thread. I really want to believe that Wright has the chance to have Timneh as a comp.

Well let's consider that Wakefield never had a walk rate quite as low, or a strikeout rate quite as high, as Wright has demonstrated so far in his young career, and comparing Wright's total body of work to a comparable slice of Wakefield's early career is even more encouraging. It's an incremental difference, but it comes out slightly in Wright's favor in most common pitching categories.

It may normalize in time, but so far, it seems to me that Wright may have better overall control of the knuck than Wake ever did. That is extremely encouraging.

 

[Drek717]

I like the idea. Who does he replace assuming Kelly may be part of the BP mix as well?

Matt Barnes hasn't proven anything to me making him particularly worth locking in a bullpen spot. I can't imagine Pat Light is long for the ML roster given how he looked last night. Hembree could turn back into a pumpkin at any point though for now he should get to ride it out. Owens could also replace Tommy Layne as the second lefty in the bullpen, letting Ross work in a more ideal role as a LH specialist you aren't afraid to use in a L-R-L inning but also not seeing any predominantly RHB matchups. A lot of options really. The club likes to have a seven man bullpen and assuming everyone is healthy at the same time only four spots are really locked in (Kimbrel, Koji, Smith, Taz).

As for Kelly, I'd like to see him get an extended bit of time in AAA to right the ship as while I have no real desire to see him start again I'm expecting to find out that Buccholz has some crazy finger displasia problem or some shit explaining his ineffectiveness and shutting him down for the year before we know it. Kelly got himself back on track following a brief AAA stint last year.

That is also the conundrum with Owens however. I fear that the #5 spot is going to soon turn into a revolving door of suck capable of at least diminishing the positive returns we're seeing from Price/Porcello/Wright at the top. If so Owens will be in that mix throughout the year riding the shuttle, and probably far more valuable in that role than as a bullpen arm since we'll need all the starting options we can find.

Well let's consider that Wakefield never had a walk rate quite as low, or a strikeout rate quite as high, as Wright has demonstrated so far in his young career, and comparing Wright's total body of work to a comparable slice of Wakefield's early career is even more encouraging. It's an incremental difference, but it comes out slightly in Wright's favor in most common pitching categories.

It may normalize in time, but so far, it seems to me that Wright may have better overall control of the knuck than Wake ever did. That is extremely encouraging.

His BB/9 for his career as a knuckler is comparable to Wake's. The big difference in general is a better K/9 (Wake's best K/9 stretch from '01 to '03 was comparable to what Wright has done this year so far, with a K/9 in the 7's). Wake had a K/9 in the 6's throughout his early years but struggled with a BB/9 in the high 3's/low 4's during that period of his career. Later when he lowered his BB/9 his K/9 was down in the 5's.

Wright and others have compared his arsenal more with that of R.A. Dickey than Tim Wakefield. His knuckleball has more velocity but less dance to it. Dickey didn't break into the majors as a knuckleballer until he was 33 and then spent parts of two seasons in Seattle and Minnesota doing a pretty poor job with it. He caught on with the Mets and saw a dramatic drop in BB/9 down into the 2's while keeping his K/9 in the 5's. 2012, his third season with NYM at the age of 37, is when his K/9 exploded (8.9) without an increase in BB/9, making him a Cy Young winner. The K/9 was not sustainable as he dropped to the 7's the next two seasons (with small jumps in BB/9 as well), then last season his K/9 dropped back to his early Mets days of mid-5's. This season his K/9 is back in the 8's for the first time since 2012 but his control has evaporated completely with a BB/9 in the mid-4's.

Wake didn't get his BB rate under control until age 35 himself (same as Dickey), his 8th year as a ML level knuckleballer. Wright is 31 this season, so by knuckleballer standards his start might even be indicative of "young prodigy" status.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I fear that the #5 spot is going to soon turn into a revolving door of suck capable of at least diminishing the positive returns we're seeing from Price/Porcello/Wright at the top. If so Owens will be in that mix throughout the year riding the shuttle, and probably far more valuable in that role than as a bullpen arm since we'll need all the starting options we can find.

All any team needs out of a #5 starter is to soak up enough innings to not destroy the bullpen on a regular basis, and to keep the team in games enough of the time to win about 50% of them.

Buchholz/Owens/Kelly should be able to do that for the most part, although none of them are likely to be a revelation like Arroyo in 2004, or as reliable as Dempster in 2013. Still, the 2007 Sox was also a damn good team, even with patching together 31 starts from Tavarez, Gabbard, and Hansack.

 

[whatittakes]

I feel bad about what happened to Kason. He pitched well for us and wound up in the Gagne trade, got hurt, and was never right again. I can't help but feel that he deserved a better fate.

 

[phenweigh]

Wright and others have compared his arsenal more with that of R.A. Dickey than Tim Wakefield. His knuckleball has more velocity but less dance to it.

In a couple of recent interviews I've seen with Wright he talked about keeping pitchers off balance by changing speeds with the knuckleball. That is, it seems that he has the ability to throw the Dickey-like higher velocity pitch with less dance, and also throw the slower Wake-like dancer. This fits my observation from watching on TV - not sure if PitchFx confirms. If - and I repeat IF - Wright can consistently use both the styles of Dickey and Wakefield, that seems like a really effective pitcher.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

This is the way I see it:

Smith up / Light down
Rodriguez up / Owens down
Kelly up / Wright to the BP / 2 of (Hembree, Barnes, Ross, Layne) down

Which 2 hit Pawtucket? My guess:

SP
Price
Porcello
Rodriguez
Buchholz
Kelly

RP
Kimbrel
Uehara
Tazawa
Smith
Wright
Ross
Layne

 

[whatittakes]

There is literally zero excuse to take Steven Wright out of the rotation until he starts makimg mistakes -- absolutely none whatsoever. Especially in favor of Joe freaking kelly who hasn't even come close to earning that kind of special consideration. There is no reason at all whatsoever to believe that Joe Kelly currently deserves a rotation spot over Steven Wright under any standard of measurement that is actually sane. That may change, but until it does, let's see if Kelly can turn his excellent stuff into a high class power reliever, the way Andrew Miller (eventually) did. That's a better use of both Wright and Kelly based on what we know right now.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Don't be blinded by love (or hate).

Kelly
1 Aug: Win, 5 IP / 6 K / 1 BB
7 Aug: Win, 5.1 / 7K / 2BB
14 Aug: Win, 6.0 / 6K / 2BB
19 Aug: Win, 6.0 / 3K / 3BB
24 Aug: Win, 7.1 / 4K / 1BB
29 Aug: Win, 7.1 / 2K / 2BB
4 Sep: Win, 5.2 / 5K / 3BB
9 Sep: Win, 5.2 / 5K / 2BB
15 Sep: ND, 2.1 / 4K, 1BB
Shut Down

Wright
20 Jul: Loss, 5.0
25 July: Loss, 4.1
30 July: Win, 7.0
5 Aug: Win, 8.0
11 Aug: ND, 5.0

I think Joe Kelly HAS come close to earning that kind of special consideration. It's not a zero sum game. Wright has been great so far (2 Losses / 1 Win, each about 6 IP and 5+ K's) but Kelly has enormous upside while Wright can fill a critical long relief role. Maybe Wright supplants Rodriguez if he starts poorly? Or does Eduardo have an immunity that Kelly lacks...

There's no Wright/Wrong answer, just opinions. Mine is that the Red Sox have too much invested in Kelly to dump him into the bullpen. (Also, I don't trust knuckleballers)

 

[whatittakes]

There is no critical long relief role if we keep our most durable arms in the rotation where they belong.

Over the last 2 years in their tenure as starters, Wright has had the better ERA, the better bb/9, the better WHIP, the better h/9 and the better HR/9 and averaged a similar number of IP per start. I see no special consideration here, except if it's for ephemeral "stuff" that he's demonstrated absolutely no ability to harness effectively.


Wright has performed almost a full ERA run worse in his short sample size as a reliever compared to his somewhat less short sample as a starter. There's little evidence that he would evolve into anywhere near the asset in the pen that he could be if he manages to keep his ERA below 4 in the rotation (something, I might point out, that Joe Kelly has never accomplished over a full season, along with never throwing over 150 innings in a single year and never having an ERA+ above 100 while in a fulltime starting role).

I'm sure Wright would be willing to go to the pen, but I'm not convinced it's the best use of either man. I think the correct move is to hold Kelly in the bullpen because Kelly in the bullpen, if he could adjust to a bullpen role, is a far more valuable commodity, as I attempted to illustrate with the reference to another power lefty who couldn't figure it out in a starting role.

 

[shaggydog2000]

Yeah, I'd definitely have Kelly in the pen and keep Wright as the 4th/5th starter. And I'd keep Hembree in the pen until he turns into a pumpkin. Dude has looked pretty good so far this year. If they're not going to ever use Layne, they need to replace him with someone they will use.

SP
Price
Porcello
Rodriguez
Buchholz
Wright

RP
Kimbrel
Uehara
Tazawa
Smith
Hembree
Ross
Kelly

 

[grimshaw]

If you have three or four good options for end game like the Red Sox will have, I don't see a need for Layne. None of their top strikeout guys are going to need a LOOGY to finish an inning unless maybe in a bases juiced 1 run game or so. If none of those 4 guys are available, then having a one out guy doesn't exactly help you soak up innings over the course of the season with a guy meant to face two hitters.

Layne was more useful piecing together those 7th and 8th innings last year, when they had Ross "anchoring" things. I could see him in a playoff series maybe. So ya. Bring Layne back up for the World Series to face either Harper or Rizzo.

 

[whatittakes]

They should spray some water on the bench where Wright was sitting tonight because we don't want to start any fires -- the man is as hot as any pitcher I've witnessed in awhile.

 

[EllisTheRimMan]

Don't be blinded by love (or hate).

Kelly
1 Aug: Win, 5 IP / 6 K / 1 BB
7 Aug: Win, 5.1 / 7K / 2BB
14 Aug: Win, 6.0 / 6K / 2BB
19 Aug: Win, 6.0 / 3K / 3BB
24 Aug: Win, 7.1 / 4K / 1BB
29 Aug: Win, 7.1 / 2K / 2BB
4 Sep: Win, 5.2 / 5K / 3BB
9 Sep: Win, 5.2 / 5K / 2BB
15 Sep: ND, 2.1 / 4K, 1BB
Shut Down

Wright
20 Jul: Loss, 5.0
25 July: Loss, 4.1
30 July: Win, 7.0
5 Aug: Win, 8.0
11 Aug: ND, 5.0

I think Joe Kelly HAS come close to earning that kind of special consideration. It's not a zero sum game. Wright has been great so far (2 Losses / 1 Win, each about 6 IP and 5+ K's) but Kelly has enormous upside while Wright can fill a critical long relief role. Maybe Wright supplants Rodriguez if he starts poorly? Or does Eduardo have an immunity that Kelly lacks...

There's no Wright/Wrong answer, just opinions. Mine is that the Red Sox have too much invested in Kelly to dump him into the bullpen. (Also, I don't trust knuckleballers)

Wow! You didn't even bother to put a sss warning label on that. Also "earned"? What does that even mean. Moreover, W-L? Finally your irrational distrust of knuckleballers has no bearing on the best way to put the right players in the right roles. Do you think Wakefield was bad for this franchise more so then any other 4/5 SP we could list in the history of MLB. Has it been a long week?

I disagree with your conclusions, but more importantly, I disagree with your methodology for arriving at them.

 

[joe dokes]

There's no Wright/Wrong answer, just opinions. Mine is that the Red Sox have too much invested in Kelly to dump him into the bullpen. (Also, I don't trust knuckleballers)

What do they have "invested" in Kelly?

 

[nighthob]

What do they have "invested" in Kelly?

A really bad trade? That's about all I can see.

 

[simplicio]

The hope of balancing out Craig's sunk salary?

 

[Rasputin]

Yeah, I'd definitely have Kelly in the pen and keep Wright as the 4th/5th starter. And I'd keep Hembree in the pen until he turns into a pumpkin. Dude has looked pretty good so far this year. If they're not going to ever use Layne, they need to replace him with someone they will use.

SP
Price
Porcello
Rodriguez
Buchholz
Wright

RP
Kimbrel
Uehara
Tazawa
Smith
Hembree
Ross
Kelly

I'd have a hard time believing that anyone is willing to take Wright out of the rotation now, and I don't think there are many arguments about Kimbrel, Uehara, Tazawa, and Smith.

I don't want to have just one lefty and at the moment, that means Ross and Layne, but I think Hembree deserves to stay up, but I have a hard time believing they're just going to cut bait on Kelly.

Kimbrel, Uehara, Taz, Smith, Ross, Layne, Kelly. It's got the potential to be a very good bullpen.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Yeah, I'd definitely have Kelly in the pen and keep Wright as the 4th/5th starter.

Ya think so? In what world is Wright a 4/5 right now? He keeps this up he'll be starting for the AL at Petco in a couple months.

 

[Drek717]

The knuckleball is a pitch heavily reliant on the pitcher's feel for it that day, environmental factors of that given day, and it's ability to throw off the timing of multiple batters multiple times through a lineup. It also is incredibly easy on the arm and knuckleballers basically never get hurt in the act of pitching. Dickey's struggles upon first converting to the knuckleball came in a long man role. While Wake was great in 2002 I think it makes people forget the mid-5's ERAs he posted in '99 and '00 working in that same role.

Using a knuckleballer in relief who can effectively start is like telling your boss you'd rather get paid less because you don't want to pay the extra taxes.

As for Kelly, he has shown flashes throughout his career. It has never stuck for more than a month or two at a time and when he goes off the rails again it's the same old Joe Kelly. He'll get a start because I'm at this point assuming Buchholz is trying to pitch through another physical problem, but he should go to AAA to work on some shit and if after that there isn't a rotation spot open he should contribute out of the bullpen to give something of value before his control years are up.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

Clearly, Wright and Porcello are locked into the rotation now. So:

Price
Rodriguez
Wright
Porcello

That would leave Buchholz and Kelly to compete for the final spot. I'm not sold on the idea of moving Kelly to the bullpen while keeping Buchholz in the rotation.

When Carson Smith returns, Light gets demoted. When Rodriguez returns, Owens gets demoted. Who gets demoted when Kelly returns?

Due to the fact that Kelly has an option remaining (and Buchholz doesn't), I would send Kelly to AAA keeping him stretched out as a starting pitcher. It's just a matter of time before Buchholz goes on the DL for about 8 months and so they need the SP depth.

 

[Soxfan in Fla]

Ya think so? In what world is Wright a 4/5 right now? He keeps this up he'll be starting for the AL at Petco in a couple months.

Coming inti the season he was considered a possible 5 or long man. So far in SSS he has pitched like a bonafide 1. The longer he keeps results going that put his season stats within the range of where they are now he becomes a 1-2. If he does it next season he's an absolute legit 1 or 2. For now with the SSS he's a 4/5 pitching like a 1.

With the ability to change speeds on the knuckler he could very well be at least a 2 if he can stay consistent for the most part over a full season.

 

[grimshaw]

Clearly, Wright and Porcello are locked into the rotation now. So:

Price
Rodriguez
Wright
Porcello

That would leave Buchholz and Kelly to compete for the final spot. I'm not sold on the idea of moving Kelly to the bullpen while keeping Buchholz in the rotation.

When Carson Smith returns, Light gets demoted. When Rodriguez returns, Owens gets demoted. Who gets demoted when Kelly returns?

Due to the fact that Kelly has an option remaining (and Buchholz doesn't), I would send Kelly to AAA keeping him stretched out as a starting pitcher. It's just a matter of time before Buchholz goes on the DL for about 8 months and so they need the SP depth.

Or at least he can make 3 rehab starts in AAA and buy them some time until Clay has his yearly DL stint.

 

[johnnywayback]

Or at least he can make 3 rehab starts in AAA and buy them some time until Clay has his yearly DL stint.

Yeah, a whole lot of things have to not go wrong for several turns of the rotation before Kelly's return gives us six starters. But at least we're not hearing about James Shields (0-4, 4.67 FIP, same elevated walk rate as last year with far fewer strikeouts) anymore!