The Plan For the #1, er, #3 Overall Pick?

DJnVa

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Key questions:
  • Can Rozier show an improvement arc such as AB went thru? Can his defense get to AB level?
How much will Rozier play if this team drafts Fultz? I'm not asking that in a "he's never going to play!" way.

Fultz/IT4 will likely get the bulk of the time, at least sooner or later, and they'll each get some time without the other, with some of that time off the ball. But how many minutes are there for Rozier if Fultz plays like we think he can?
 

heavyde050

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Looks like the workout might get scheduled soon:

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/19497896/markelle-fultz-talked-danny-ainge-hopes-top-pick-boston-celtics





---

Re: Simmons proposed trade, I don't like it. Someone accurately made the point earlier that fans (in general, not necessarily on here) always complain about having too many complementary players and that we didn't trade the assets for a star. We finally get the #1 pick, and we're talking about flipping it for multiple pieces on a team already loaded with pieces. We're lucky to be in position to finally get a clear cut #1 talent, I think we should keep it and hope he lives up to his potential.
Great point on the Simmons fake trade. I just don't see how making a division rival (the Sixers) better helps the Celtics compete for championships. The Sixers would be getting the best individual player in the deal, a player that fits perfectly with that team needs.
Sign me up for no thanks and hard pass.
 

BigSoxFan

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In isolation, it doesn't make sense but could make sense in a larger scenario. Say, for example, the Celtics traded Fultz/Bradley for #3/Saric/Lakers 2018 unrestricted/Kings 2019 unrestricted, they'd be left with the following roster:

Horford / Zizic
Saric / Yabusele
Crowder / Jackson
Brown / Smart
Thomas / Rozier

Meh, right? But if you add Hayward as a FA and swing a trade for Butler or George, you've got the makings of a pretty good squad and one that can be very good now while also having long-term sustainability. If Ainge doesn't think that he can land a top 2017 FA, then you have to sit back and take Fultz because your options of landing a star would basically fall to the 2018 Brooklyn pick.

Ultimately, I doubt the offers would even rise to this level so I think Ainge will have a very easy decision to make in a few weeks.
 

mcpickl

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I think Simmons is a bit of a hack at times but you see his suggestion yesterday?

Sixers get number 1 pick
Kings get 3, 37 and Boston 2018 first
Celtics get 5, 10, Saric, Lakers 2018 first

Obviously this is highly unlikely but what you guys think? It's more interesting than all agreeing Fultz and done.
I think I would do it though I would agonize. Which probably means about fair.
I'd suspect that the kings might not do that anyway but 3, Saric and Lakers 2018 without them is not impossible
I'm glad Simmons isn't the Celtics GM.

We've been begging for lottery luck for decades, the ping pong balls finally bounce our way, and he wants to trade down for a volume package? On this team that's already looking to make a deal bundling up assets to get a star? That's crazy talk. Take your shot at finding your star at #1.
 

MillarTime

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I'm glad Simmons isn't the Celtics GM.

We've been begging for lottery luck for decades, the ping pong balls finally bounce our way, and he wants to trade down for a volume package? On this team that's already looking to make a deal bundling up assets to get a star? That's crazy talk. Take your shot at finding your star at #1.
This exactly.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Some more superlatives about Markelle from UConn's new assistant head coach who recruited him for UW: http://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-mens-basketball/. Here's a snippet:

"He was same kid he was as a sophomore [at DeMatha]," Chillious said. "He didn't believe the hype. He believes in his work, and he worked just as hard as he did then. When you watch him play, he doesn't play like he's the quote-unquote No.1 draft pick, he plays like he's No. 300 in the country trying to rise up the ranks and prove he's better than the guys in front of him. He's one of those kids who doesn't believe what he's reading as being the gospel – his mom wouldn't allow him to be that way. He's very humble, yet very confident.

"A lot of kids with that type of talent, you feel you need to teach them how to work. You don't need to teach him how to work. He's going to work when you're not there. He told me, 'Coach, I desire to be one of the best to ever play the game,' and he means it. It's not just a cliché."
 

HomeRunBaker

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Some more superlatives about Markelle from UConn's new assistant head coach who recruited him for UW: http://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-mens-basketball/. Here's a snippet:

"He was same kid he was as a sophomore [at DeMatha]," Chillious said. "He didn't believe the hype. He believes in his work, and he worked just as hard as he did then. When you watch him play, he doesn't play like he's the quote-unquote No.1 draft pick, he plays like he's No. 300 in the country trying to rise up the ranks and prove he's better than the guys in front of him. He's one of those kids who doesn't believe what he's reading as being the gospel – his mom wouldn't allow him to be that way. He's very humble, yet very confident.

"A lot of kids with that type of talent, you feel you need to teach them how to work. You don't need to teach him how to work. He's going to work when you're not there. He told me, 'Coach, I desire to be one of the best to ever play the game,' and he means it. It's not just a cliché."
This is a product of Fultz HAVING to work to make his high school teams and like Jordan, he didn't make his HS varsity team as a sophomore. He failed, he worked and he made his team as a junior then began making a name for himself the following summer which set him up for a great senior season. I love the late bloomers as the work ethic learned from failing are habits that serve them well into their professional careers. It's why I LOVE having someone like Jaylen having to earn his minutes until guys of past years like Antoine and Ron Mercer who were gifted 35 mpg from Day One.....what is the motivation to work when you're a young kid thinking he's already made it? I remember Antoine during his second NBA season following being named to the All-Star team referring to himself as a "veteran All-Star." We won't have to worry about that with Jaylen and Fultz.
 

HomeRunBaker

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How much will Rozier play if this team drafts Fultz? I'm not asking that in a "he's never going to play!" way.

Fultz/IT4 will likely get the bulk of the time, at least sooner or later, and they'll each get some time without the other, with some of that time off the ball. But how many minutes are there for Rozier if Fultz plays like we think he can?
Avery figures to be the odd man out with his enormous contract coming due next year so if he is moved this summer then Rozier's 17 mpg shouldn't be affected at all......it could actually INCREASE as Fultz won't be ready to play all of Avery's minutes out of the gate. If we keep all 5 guards you are going to have some really unhappy campers with these guys approaching FA. Something has to give and it's most likely Avery.
 

ALiveH

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I agree with this. If I'm Danny, IT or Avery have to go, and it is most likely Avery. I'm sure he engages them to come back team-friendly extensions but probably neither goes for it, then he trades for whoever brings back the better return. IT is an injury question mark, so I assume that would be Avery (either a serviceable big on a cheap contract or a projected late lottery to mid 1st).
 

BigSoxFan

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Avery figures to be the odd man out with his enormous contract coming due next year so if he is moved this summer then Rozier's 17 mpg shouldn't be affected at all......it could actually INCREASE as Fultz won't be ready to play all of Avery's minutes out of the gate. If we keep all 5 guards you are going to have some really unhappy campers with these guys approaching FA. Something has to give and it's most likely Avery.
Taking it even further, if they're able to sign Hayward, you'd have 8 capable guys looking to split 144 minutes.

IT / Smart / Rozier
Bradley / Brown / Fultz
Hayward / Crowder

You'd think 2 of those guys would have to get dealt.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Taking it even further, if they're able to sign Hayward, you'd have 8 capable guys looking to split 144 minutes.

IT / Smart / Rozier
Bradley / Brown / Fultz
Hayward / Crowder

You'd think 2 of those guys would have to get dealt.
I think Celtics fans will be disappointed in the return on Crowder who most teams will view as a 2nd unit guy unless he lands on a lottery team. I don't give us much chance of signing Hayward, certainly less than most posters here, but if we did get him then Crowder wouldn't be a happy camper as his comments/actions showed the last time Utah came to town and fans cheered Gordon.
 

BigSoxFan

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I think Celtics fans will be disappointed in the return on Crowder who most teams will view as a 2nd unit guy unless he lands on a lottery team. I don't give us much chance of signing Hayward, certainly less than most posters here, but if we did get him then Crowder wouldn't be a happy camper as his comments/actions showed the last time Utah came to town and fans cheered Gordon.
Agreed. I think both Bradley and Crowder would/will yield less than we feel they're "worth". More than likely, Hayward stays in Utah and Crowder hangs on. Don't really see any scenario where it makes sense to retain Bradley. Even if IT is on the shelf for a bit to start next season, you'd still have Smart, Rozier, Fultz, and Brown to handle the backcourt minutes.
 

pjheff

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I don't give us much chance of signing Hayward, certainly less than most posters here, but if we did get him then Crowder wouldn't be a happy camper as his comments/actions showed the last time Utah came to town and fans cheered Gordon.
I think that Crowder is more likely to start alongside Hayward than be replaced by him, particularly if Ainge has to jettison the other bigs (Johnson, Olynyk, Jerebko, Zeller, Mickey) to clear the cap space to sign him and then drafts a guard like Fultz.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I think that Crowder is more likely to start alongside Hayward than be replaced by him, particularly if Ainge has to jettison the other bigs (Johnson, Olynyk, Jerebko, Zeller, Mickey) to clear the cap space to sign him and then drafts a guard like Fultz.
I posted awhile ago Crowder's length disadvantage against nearly all of his counterparts at the 3, some by as much as 5-6 inches. Starting him at the 4 is pretty insane as he'd then be going up against 4's in some cases 8-10" of length advantage on him. Can't imagine that is even a consideration. He's a nice stretch 4 with a smallball second unit however against starting 4's he can't physically compete against too many of them as the 4/5's are often interchangeable.
 

pjheff

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He's a nice stretch 4 with a smallball second unit however against starting 4's he can't physically compete against too many of them as the 4/5's are often interchangeable.
I think the smallball second unit will include Crowder or Hayward, not both of them together.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I think the smallball second unit will include Crowder or Hayward, not both of them together.
You mentioned starting both though which is what I was referring to the struggles Crowder and our frontcourt would face in that scenario.
 

pjheff

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You mentioned starting both though which is what I was referring to the struggles Crowder and our frontcourt would face in that scenario.
I know. While you're worried about Crowder's lack of size, I was trying to suggest that the pairing of him with Hayward would be one of our bigger lineups. Smallball units would only feature one of them with an even smaller partner, such as Brown.
 

Imbricus

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A trade idea I've seen bandied about a few times: (1) Sixers get this year's #1 (2) Celtics get this year's #3, Saric, and next year's Lakers first round pick, unrestricted. Before anyone craps on this ;), I'd say that this trade makes a lot of sense for the Celtics if they see Ball and Jackson at almost the same level as Fultz. Saric emerged this year, the Lakers pick is probably lottery though hard to tell where. But if they think Fultz is head and shoulders above the rest, then Danny should try to get the superstar, agreed.
 

Green (Tongued) Monster

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A trade idea I've seen bandied about a few times: (1) Sixers get this year's #1 (2) Celtics get this year's #3, Saric, and next year's Lakers first round pick, unrestricted. Before anyone craps on this ;), I'd say that this trade makes a lot of sense for the Celtics if they see Ball and Jackson at almost the same level as Fultz. Saric emerged this year, the Lakers pick is probably lottery though hard to tell where. But if they think Fultz is head and shoulders above the rest, then Danny should try to get the superstar, agreed.
Holy cow, what an idea. I have not seen a discussion about this proposal before!

Have you bothered reading the thread before posting?
 

Big John

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The reality is that, unless you believe the "transcendant player" hype, Fultz is a bad fit for this roster. For one thing, two out of the group that includes Rozier, Bradley and Smart become vestigial appendages that have to be moved, probably at below market value. For another, Fultz does nothing to address rebounding and rim protection. And if he's just pretty good (a more likely outcome than "transcendant") he takes the ball out of IT's hands.
 

JCizzle

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The reality is that, unless you believe the "transcendant player" hype, Fultz is a bad fit for this roster. For one thing, two out of the group that includes Rozier, Bradley and Smart become vestigial appendages that have to be moved, probably at below market value. For another, Fultz does nothing to address rebounding and rim protection. And if he's just pretty good (a more likely outcome than "transcendant") he takes the ball out of IT's hands.
While I love what they all bring, Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier and Avery Bradley are not legitimate reasons to avoid the #1 pick. Especially since two of three are about to be making between 2-3x as much as Fultz. I mean yeah I guess it would be nice if we lucked into the #1 during AD's draft to perfectly solve all our issues, but this guy is supposed to be the real deal. When Danny feels that we're close, I'm confident he'll find someone like JaVale to solve our rebounding and defensive issues.
 

Eddie Jurak

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The reality is that, unless you believe the "transcendant player" hype, Fultz is a bad fit for this roster. For one thing, two out of the group that includes Rozier, Bradley and Smart become vestigial appendages that have to be moved, probably at below market value. For another, Fultz does nothing to address rebounding and rim protection. And if he's just pretty good (a more likely outcome than "transcendant") he takes the ball out of IT's hands.
Calling him "a bad fit for this roster" is ridiculous. What kind of deference does Celtics' management owe to a roster that was routed in the ECF, and, had it miraculously managed to advance, would have been routed in the finals, too?

The Celtics are not in a position where drafting for positional need is a great idea if it means leaving a better player on the table.

And, if you look at other types of need, they need more than rebounding and rim protection - they also need another guy (beyond IT) who they can go to when they need a key bucket.

Finally, the idea that he's a bad fit with IT is just dead wrong. Given his height, his ability to shoot, and the uncertainty about whether he will ultimately be a 1- or a 2-guard, he's actually a great fit with IT, who can excel offensively whether he has the ball or not.
 

Imbricus

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Have you bothered reading the thread before posting?
Yes, I've been following it from the first post. I know there's been talk about Saric + #3 for the Celtics #1, and packages like Saric + #3 and some restricted picks, but I have not seen (1) This particular trade proposal (if it's somewhere upthread and I just overlooked, apologies) (2) This particular proposal as something that's come up in a couple of places outside of this forum. But if everyone's tired of talking about potential Saric/Philly trades, that's fine -- I just thought it was interesting I've seen this trade idea twice now, outside of Sons of Sam Horn.
 

Big John

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While I love what they all bring, Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier and Avery Bradley are not legitimate reasons to avoid the #1 pick. Especially since two of three are about to be making between 2-3x as much as Fultz. I mean yeah I guess it would be nice if we lucked into the #1 during AD's draft to perfectly solve all our issues, but this guy is supposed to be the real deal.
If Ainge and his staff determine that Fultz is enough of a "real deal," they should draft him. I'm not sold yet.
 

ALiveH

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Fultz may be a "guard" in name but in the positionless NBA he is very different than our other guards. Taller and longer than any of them. He'd give us something size-wise none of our other guards can. For that reason, he's not a bad fit for this roster. Plus, as others have pointed out, there's no way we can afford to keep Smart + IT + Avery long term. At least one of those is leaving sometime in the near future.
 

Devizier

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Even in today's NBA, Fultz's height (and related) measures about what you'd expect for a shooting guard in the league; roughly 6'4" (slightly below average) in shoes, with a 8'5" standing reach (average), and 6'10" wingspan (elite).

However, compared to the players the Celtics have rostered, that is a significant size upgrade (pretty much Marcus Smart plus an inch or two across the board).
 

Big John

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Even in today's NBA, Fultz's height (and related) measures about what you'd expect for a shooting guard in the league; roughly 6'4" (slightly below average) in shoes, with a 8'5" standing reach (average), and 6'10" wingspan (elite).

However, compared to the players the Celtics have rostered, that is a significant size upgrade (pretty much Marcus Smart plus an inch or two across the board).
Yeah, I've heard these and many other arguments from folks who think Fultz is fabulous. From the film I've watched he's a mixed bag, never mind the potential knee issues. He looked good against Yale (no great feat, never mind that Washington lost the game) but he played the game of his life later vs. Colorado. He was terrible against Cal. In his defense, he showed improvement later in the season, even though Washington lost its last 7 games.

I guess my view is that this team needs upgrades over Amir Johnson and the wildly inconsistent Kelly Olynyk more than it needs an upgrade at the guard position, and that's why my first option would be to explore trading the pick. But if you think Fultz will become a truly elite player, you can't pass, except in the wildly unlikely event that you can use the pick to acquire someone like AD.
 

the moops

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The concerns about his knee are way overblown and nobody here would even be talking about them if HRB hadn't brought it up.

And who exactly is an upgrade over Olynyk and Johnson that can be picked in the top of the first round?
 

Big John

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The concerns about his knee are way overblown and nobody here would even be talking about them if HRB hadn't brought it up.

And who exactly is an upgrade over Olynyk and Johnson that can be picked in the top of the first round?
The upgrades to the front court would be via trading the pick. I'm not a big fan of Markkanen or Collins either. Markkanen looks like a one-trick pony and Collins needs another year at Gonzaga. I'm a huge fan of Frank Ntilikina, but he doesn't solve your front court problem any more than Fultz does.

As for concerns about the knee, an MRI would put those to rest.
 

nighthob

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The reality is that, unless you believe the "transcendant player" hype, Fultz is a bad fit for this roster. For one thing, two out of the group that includes Rozier, Bradley and Smart become vestigial appendages that have to be moved, probably at below market value. For another, Fultz does nothing to address rebounding and rim protection. And if he's just pretty good (a more likely outcome than "transcendant") he takes the ball out of IT's hands.
The team's biggest need is stars, not roleplayers. They can always sign more roleplayers.
 

the moops

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The upgrades to the front court would be via trading the pick. I'm not a big fan of Markkanen or Collins either. Markkanen looks like a one-trick pony and Collins needs another year at Gonzaga. I'm a huge fan of Frank Ntilikina, but he doesn't solve your front court problem any more than Fultz does.

As for concerns about the knee, an MRI would put those to rest.
Who is this rebounding rim protector who is available via trade that would truly change this teams chances?
 

snowmanny

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Nobody knows whether Fultz will be a transcendent player, but you draft him because (or, rather, if) he is your best chance at acquiring a transcendent player, or at least an all-star. You don't draft him to be a solid player. You don't trade him for a solid player. You either trade the pick for someone who is, or is very likely to be, a star or you draft the guy most likely to be a star. This is the number one pick and you don't get too many shots - and frankly the odds are against the Celtics hitting on everything and winning a title - but you've got to take the shot.
 

Big John

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Who knows what players are available via trade? I guess it depends on how much other GMs value Fultz..
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Who knows what players are available via trade? I guess it depends on how much other GMs value Fultz..
There are only so many bigs that provide defense, rebounding, and the offensive versatility, passing, and perimeter shooting the Celtics would need from a big. It's a tiny list of guys who likely aren't even available.
 

snowmanny

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Well not too long ago a number one pick was traded for Kevin Love. The equivalent of Love would be the floor in terms of a reasonable return, right?
 

the moops

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Who knows what players are available via trade? I guess it depends on how much other GMs value Fultz..
Well sure. But it would be nice to at least provide some names of players you think are worthy of trading the number one pick. None of us know who is truly available, but just stating that they should trade the pick for a rim protector doesn't really help foster any conversation.
 

Big John

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Porzingis (if I could trade #1 and Crowder for #8 and Porzingis I would do it.
Anthony Davis
Towns
Jokic (maybe)
Giannis (I realize he's not a "center")

Please don't bother to chime in with "Team "x" wouldn't trade player "y" in a million years. I'm aware of that. But every team has its price.
 

the moops

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OK that is better. I guess.

If Fultz and other assets could be flipped for Towns/Davis/Giannis/Jokic sign me up. But those teams aren't trading those guys :)
 

DJnVa

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For another, Fultz does nothing to address rebounding and rim protection.
Dude, you need to stop with this. You're advocating a strategy that the current people in charge of the Celtics don't adhere to.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Porzingis (if I could trade #1 and Crowder for #8 and Porzingis I would do it.
Anthony Davis
Towns
Jokic (maybe)
Giannis (I realize he's not a "center")

Please don't bother to chime in with "Team "x" wouldn't trade player "y" in a million years. I'm aware of that. But every team has its price.
It is a shame that Boogie turned out to be a head case, because he would belong on this list also. (And TBH, I would still consider trying to get him if it could be done more cheaply than the #1. )
 

Cesar Crespo

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Porzingis (if I could trade #1 and Crowder for #8 and Porzingis I would do it.
Anthony Davis
Towns
Jokic (maybe)
Giannis (I realize he's not a "center")

Please don't bother to chime in with "Team "x" wouldn't trade player "y" in a million years. I'm aware of that. But every team has its price.
and the Celtics can't afford that price even if they wanted to. What do you think the price is for AD, KAT, Jokic and Giannis? Jokic and Towns also don't really provide defense but I guess they could improve on that end.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Myles Turner is close to being on that list (skill set wise) and maybe they would deal him. The price would be a lot cheaper too. Kind of a meh rebounder, but so isn't Porzingis.
 

Big John

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Embiid could be on my list too, if anyone thought he could actually stay healthy.
 
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the moops

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I'm not sure I understand. Are you just listing the top 5 best big men in the game and theorizing that the price for them, if there is one, is low enough that Boston can trade for them?
 

PedroKsBambino

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The team's biggest need is stars, not roleplayers. They can always sign more roleplayers.
Agreed. I think there's a set of fans who still view the NBA through a 1980s lens and want size, and another set who think the guys here now are all staying and represent 'the core' and only want pieces that fit around them.

For me, the truth of this team is they are a pretty good team that desparately needs 2 'upgrades' somewhere to star level to have a chance at winning anything, and I'd take them wherever they could get them. If Chris Paul were an option, I'd take him even though they are overloaded at guard already, for example. And so for the draft, they pick whoever they think has the best chance of being a star---even if it's famially-challenged Lonzo Ball. I just think that who they land is most likely Fultz, and I think he happens to fit their scoring need in a way that is terrific as well.
 

JCizzle

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I know they're all individually great talents and would love them on the C's, but none of those big men listed above got past the first round, whereas the rim protecting and rebounding deficient Celtics got to the ECF. Maybe Danny and Brad aren't totally crazy to focus on other areas without mortgaging everything to acquire someone that can fill those roles.

At least for now. I'm sure Danny will be hoping like hell that the dancing bear turns into draymond and Zizic is TT.
 
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nighthob

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Well not too long ago a number one pick was traded for Kevin Love. The equivalent of Love would be the floor in terms of a reasonable return, right?
The only reason the pick was sold that cheaply is because the team moving it had a GOAT candidate on their roster.
 

JakeRae

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The Celtics ranked fifth in the league this year in eFG% against. (I can't find TS% against numbers, which I would prefer, but you work with what you've got.) They were a pretty average team at defending the 2, 19th in the league in 2P% against, but were excellent at shutting down threes, 2nd in 3P% against. So, I don't think lack of rim protection is a major concern if they continue to be a team that can successfully make it really hard to shoot threes. They could use some upgrading in the rebounding department, but I'd also posit that part of their rebounding struggles are linked to their being really really good at defending threes. In other words, being aggressive at getting out and contesting every shot leaves fewer guys in position to rebound on a regular basis.

I do not understand why people want to fundamentally restructure a roster format that has shown itself able to consistently outperform its talent level over the course of the last 2 years. The team just needs more talent, and that may or may not entail restructuring the nature and approach of the team. If a guy who plays like prime Dwight Howard becomes available to the Celtics, there is no way floor spacing concerns should impact our willingness to bring that player in. But, if what is available this offseason are upgrades to our wing talent (and that is what is available) there is no evidence of any flaw in the design of the current roster outside of a talent deficiency relative to the 2-4 best teams in the league.

All that's to say that there are a lot of people here who seem wedded to a particular type of roster structure, and that is foolish on all counts. What this team needs is more talent. If that talent is a rim-protecting big, great. If it is better scoring and shot-creation, that's great too. Upgrade the talent, not any particular skill. Thankfully, I'm pretty sure Ainge gets this even though many on this board appear not to (many others do get it--this is not a universal critique).