I don't think Smart needs to shoot 37% from three and get to the line 7 times a game to be an elite player. He needs to become an above average 3-point shooter OR get to the line at a high rate (and develop the ability to finish at the rim) to be an elite player. The former is the Jason Kidd track of offensive development (notwithstanding the rather large other differences in their games). Kidd never became a good 2-point scorer, never got to the line at a really high rate, and struggled to finish at the rim, but the rest of his game made up for it. The latter is the Dwayne Wade route. Wade has never been a good shooter, in fact, he's a pretty terrible shooter, but he gets to the rim and the line, finishes at the rim, and shoots well, although not extraordinarily so, from the line. I actually think developing into a Wade-style player remains the most realistic path for Smart, and he has taken some steps toward that this year. He has improved his free throw shooting substantially, from 65% to 71%, and is getting to the rim a lot more, from 18% of his shots to 27%. He's also getting more 3-10 foot looks, up from 9% to 15%. But, his finishing is down; he is only making 50% of his shots at the rim versus 56% a year ago (although he has improved markedly from 3-10, going from 26% to 36%).
Obviously, his shooting rates remain abysmal. A comparison to Wade shows that the strides he has made in getting to the rim are substantial, even while his ability to finish has a long ways to go. Wade has a career 36% rate at the rim, but took nearly half his shots there early in his career. His 15% career mark from 3-10 matches Smart, on the other hand. However, Wade shoots 66% and 47%, respectively, from the distances noted. And, has gotten to the line 8 times per game, versus the 3 that Smart currently averages this year. Wade is a career 77% FT shooter. Better than Smart, but it's not hard to see Smart continuing to improve and getting into the upper 70's.
The good news is, if Smart can get better at finishing, the trips to the line will likely follow. Smart is making large strides to being the sort of attack the rim bulldog that Wade has made a career out of being. And, that seems to fit his athleticism and natural game much better than being a range 3-point shooter (although improving his shooting mechanics can only be a good thing). The gains he's made this year in getting to the rim already make him pretty good at it. As another point of comparison, he's already better than DeMar DeRozan at getting to the rim. (DeRozan finishes almost as well as Wade and has a much better mid-range game than either Wade or Smart.) The next big step for Smart is figuring out a way to become a 60% plus finisher at the rim. I have no idea how realistic that is, but it seems like, with his natural strength, it should be something he can learn to do. I'm still pretty optimistic he can do this. I like the progression he's shown so far, and I'm hopeful he can continue that to become a significant positive at the offense end alongside his elite defense.
