The list of disgruntled, depressed or depreciating young stars could grow substantially over the next few weeks. Cousins, Davis and Harden are just the early contenders under the Christmas tree. The Celtics will find some team somewhere to take their draft picks yet.
The Celtics and Building a Contender - Roster Crunch.
- Thread starter sox311
- Start date
I agree. In the next month it is likely that some superstar with a bit of hair will hit the market. Danny should pounce.
If Danny can trade for a superstar, he also sets himself up for next summer as a potential contender destination for free agents.
What is, in my view, truly remarkable is that Danny could well trade for a superstar and include a combination of picks and young players with upside and still have a pretty deep roster and fantastic remaining draft assets. A number of celtics, eg Bradly, Kelly and even Young, have become more valuable assets this season. Some may go in the trade but Danny is on a roll.
Danny has an opportunity to build a powerhouse in the east. His first step is to use players and picks to get a superstar before the trade deadline.
Obviously, it takes 2 to tango so, yes, he needs some luck.
I mentioned Harden upthread as someone I see coming available, but I think he's probably a year off because I'm assuming the Rockets want to give their next coach a chance to get through to him. Davis can't be traded until July, but the Celtics will definitely be waiting to pounce if the Pelicans decide to remake their roster this summer. Cousins is the one guy I could see hitting the market this year.
I don't understand why anyone thinks he Rockets will trade Harden. He is a max player in his prime. Sure, he may be a head case, but so are half the talented players in the league.
Some think the Rockets will get rid of pieces. Just like last year they will look to add, Morris can easily be this years Josh Smith. I would think they would hire a new coach soon too and clean house on the bench. Bickerstaff has been under McHale for ten years, I don't understand what the hold up is. Bring in Thibs and see it EXPLODE when they have to practice.
Some think the Rockets will get rid of pieces. Just like last year they will look to add, Morris can easily be this years Josh Smith. I would think they would hire a new coach soon too and clean house on the bench. Bickerstaff has been under McHale for ten years, I don't understand what the hold up is. Bring in Thibs and see it EXPLODE when they have to practice.
I think everyone agrees that Morey doesn't want to trade Harden, but Harden may be trying to force his way out regardless. However even in a worst case scenario (from Houston's POV) the Rockets are going to deal with Harden the way the Lakers did Bryant when he tried forcing his way out of LA, in hopes that whomever they hire next summer can get him refocused.
Anthony Davis would be a dream come true - I'd hand over all three remaining Brooklyn picks plus other assets - but I can't see that happening in any way, shape, or form.
This talk should probably be in the rebuild/roster thread instead of the regular season thread, so I'll reply there...
Danny won't be throwing away any of the picks, teams don't have problems selling picks on draft night. Worst case scenario that is what he will do, we are assured to see a stash or two and a sale or two of our 2nd rounders this year with no doubt if we don't get rid of a majority of them.
Good point about Ray and KG.
The non-guaranteed contracts are good pieces to trade this deadline or off season as well. They can trade them to match up and the other team can cut them before the season as we did with Dragic this year. Danny knew what he was doing when he gave Jonas that deal, overpay knowing that it would only be on the books one year.
Below are the building blocks for this off season which will make the 16/17 team. We have EIGHT draft picks.
Four FAs, lets say we keep one of probably or maybe both of Sully and Turner. Lee and Zeller have to be gone. Jerebko is trade fodder and won't be back, Johnson should stay. That give three roster spots for new players next year unless we do move some of the current players, which is likely .
Obviously they will carry more until final cuts, and they will probably be some of our second round picks in the draft. It is easy to see any of the key players traded as well as any of the young players. This roster is and will be fluid up until the last day Danny can make cuts, just like it was this year, but with another year under our belts building at team. Now lets hope two of those three spots are solid contributors and will fill in instead of replace or change drastically what we have going on right now, which I really like. (now if we can get Horford and Batum to be two of those three players...)
Key Players Signed beyond this year
Crowder
IT
Bradley
Smart
Olynyk
Young players on their first contracts
Rozier
Mickey
Hunter
Young
Team Options for 16/17
Johnson (Team Option)
Jerebko (Team Option)
RFA/UFAs
Sully RFA
Turner UFA
Lee UFA
Zeller RFA
Draft Picks
2016 1st round Nets pick
2016 1st round Mavs pick (1-7 protected)
2016 1st round Celtic Pick
2016 2nd round Philladelphia
2016 Minn 2nd round pick(considered 2nd round here) 1-12 first round protected
2016 2nd round Memphis/Dallas(better)
2016 2nd round Miami pick
2016 2nd round Cleveland pick
Rumors that teams are making offers for disgruntled stars Cousins & Howard. The C's should definitely be in the mix to field a competitive package of players / picks.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nba/report-heat-a-likely-trade-option-for-dwight-howard/ar-BBnBs3I?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=mailsignout
http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nba/report-heat-a-likely-trade-option-for-dwight-howard/ar-BBnBs3I?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=mailsignout
I think it's interesting that Justise Winslow is being mentioned as part of the Howard package, and I think Morey might want more immediate help in Houston, so Boston could insert themselves into the mix to land Winslow. Cousins, alas, has only been normally grumpy this year, so I don't expect him to go anywhere until the summer at the earliest.
Philly has bought into the tank & wait philosophy, and they haven't made much progress yet. Perhaps they are ready to do a major reset?
So, as a theoretical question: would you trade all 3 of NJ's picks to Phiily for Okafor (plus whatever spare parts are needed to make salaries match)?
So, as a theoretical question: would you trade all 3 of NJ's picks to Phiily for Okafor (plus whatever spare parts are needed to make salaries match)?
How about Will Barton as a target? He's a big guard which this team lacks, young, on a good contract, & putting up good numbers. Don't know if his D is good enough to start or whether he comes off the bench on the C's. The Nuggs are awful, so may be willing to take some combination of picks / players.
I also wonder if Kyle O'Quinn would be an upgrade over any of our bigs.
I also wonder if Kyle O'Quinn would be an upgrade over any of our bigs.
Barton's a pretty nifty player, and would be a nice target I agree. Hard to think of a good trade for him however, given there's no real reason for Denver to want to get rid of him either (young, under contract). Like, I can't imagine they'd take the Minnesota pick(s) for him, and I don't expect Boston would move the Dallas pick for him.
Kyle O'Quinn is somewhat similar. He's a good player, but not so good that he's undermining some tank-job by the Knicks. He's also young and under contract, so I wouldn't expect the Knicks to be in a hurry to get rid of him?
Kyle O'Quinn is somewhat similar. He's a good player, but not so good that he's undermining some tank-job by the Knicks. He's also young and under contract, so I wouldn't expect the Knicks to be in a hurry to get rid of him?
Disagree, I think O'Quinn could definitely be had for a couple of second rounders and whoever he'd bump off the roster, especially since Porzingis has been way better at the 5 then anyone expected so quickly, and Lopez/O'Quinn/Seraphim all can't really play anywhere else.
Given your obvious depth of experience, which hallucinatory euphoriant would you recommend?
AKA: what are the odds that 3 picks over the next three year will yield something in the top 5; and that these top 5 picks yield competent players; and said players will be around with a strong cast?
Or should I restate the above?
I don't really see this, honestly. O'Quinn's on such a good contract, and has performed reasonably well when given time, that I just doubt they're in any rush to get rid of him. If any of those bigs are dealt, Seraphin is the obvious choice given his contract.
I don't think they're likely to part with him unless someone is giving them a late first. Seraphim I could see getting moved, though.
- Philadelphia is not trading Okafor unless someone offers up idiot value for him, but we can check that off because you're clearly willing to see Boston empty its warchest for him.
- Okafor isn't worth multiple top ten picks. The Jrue Holiday trade aside, that's not the sort of thing that intelligent teams do.
- The Celtics are not a single player away from contending for a title unless that player's last name is Curry, Westbrook, Durant, or James.
- Emptying the warchest might make sense if the guy they were getting was the Boogieman, Okafor is not the boogieman.
Well that makes for an interesting debate. Who has more value in the NBA right now: Cousins or Okafor? I suspect a survey of NBA execs would yield a pretty even split.
Why do you think that? I suspect the unanimous answer would be Cousins, and that's despite the fact that I like Okafor more than a lot of folks here. Isn't Cousins the absolute best case scenario for Okafor?
The case for Oak: 5 years younger, minimal attitude issues, likely to shoot better than 42% in his age 25 year, on a rookie contract. Oh and Cousins has yet to lead/carry his team to even 30 wins in a season. I get that he is tantalizing, but there are warts.
Right now there is no comparison between Okafor and Cousins, but looking at Cousins rookie season is somewhat interesting. Sure Okafor's on a terrible team and RPM is not perfect, but right now, he is ranked 420th out of 420 on RPM. He's -6.7 right now compared to Cousins (24th ranked overall) who is +3.25 RPM on a mediocre-to-poor team.
Cousins rookie season actually has some similarities to Okafor's first part of his rookie season:
Okafor per 100 possessions:
Offensive Rating: 94, Defensive Rating: 108, 27 points, 12.3 rebounds, 2.1 blocks
Cousins (rookie year) per 100 possessions:
Offensive Rating: 94, Defensive Rating: 105, 25 points, 15.3 rebounds, 1.5 blocks
Cousins (this year per) 100 possessions:
Offensive Rating: 103, Defensive Rating: 104, 36.7 points, 15.6 rebounds, 1.8 blocks
A couple of other breakdowns:
Okafor:
Total Rebound %: 13.6%, True Shooting %: .496, Usage %: 27.9%, Turnover %: 12.8%
Cousins (rookie):
Total Rebound %: 17.2%, True Shooting %: .484, Usage %: 27.2%, Turnover %: 18:5%
Cousins (this year):
Total Rebound %: 17.6%, True Shooting %: .526, Usage %: 34.8%, Turnover %: 11.9%
Cousins made significant improvements to his offensive game over the years, while defensive and rebounding were somewhat similar. I think everyone agrees that Okafor should improve offensively, but he's definitely starting off worse on the defensive end and rebounding. He's got a long way to go there.
Cousins rookie season actually has some similarities to Okafor's first part of his rookie season:
Okafor per 100 possessions:
Offensive Rating: 94, Defensive Rating: 108, 27 points, 12.3 rebounds, 2.1 blocks
Cousins (rookie year) per 100 possessions:
Offensive Rating: 94, Defensive Rating: 105, 25 points, 15.3 rebounds, 1.5 blocks
Cousins (this year per) 100 possessions:
Offensive Rating: 103, Defensive Rating: 104, 36.7 points, 15.6 rebounds, 1.8 blocks
A couple of other breakdowns:
Okafor:
Total Rebound %: 13.6%, True Shooting %: .496, Usage %: 27.9%, Turnover %: 12.8%
Cousins (rookie):
Total Rebound %: 17.2%, True Shooting %: .484, Usage %: 27.2%, Turnover %: 18:5%
Cousins (this year):
Total Rebound %: 17.6%, True Shooting %: .526, Usage %: 34.8%, Turnover %: 11.9%
Cousins made significant improvements to his offensive game over the years, while defensive and rebounding were somewhat similar. I think everyone agrees that Okafor should improve offensively, but he's definitely starting off worse on the defensive end and rebounding. He's got a long way to go there.
for Barton, O'Quinn or others in that category, I was thinking we'd "overpay" from a value perspective to pry them loose, e.g., pay 3 nickels for a dime. You don't have to "win" every trade. I just think we're at a stage we have to clear out some logjam and look for talent upgrades. Probably not that useful to talk specific packages, because there are so many possibilities & it's all predicated on Ainge and Brad believing that they would be significant upgrades to the team now. I would definitely think the Brooklyn picks are untouchable unless we're talking a superstar - but mid-late 1sts should definitely be in play and we have an excess of youngish players who could be useful players.
For example, even with lots of incoming bodies, this is a team where Jerebko & Zeller already have trouble getting minutes. And, we have recent 1sts Young & Rozier & Hunter who can't get on the floor (admittedly they look somewhat lost but that's possibly developmental).
For example, even with lots of incoming bodies, this is a team where Jerebko & Zeller already have trouble getting minutes. And, we have recent 1sts Young & Rozier & Hunter who can't get on the floor (admittedly they look somewhat lost but that's possibly developmental).
I really like Barton's game and fit for the Celtics, so if they were convinced he was actually a good shooter now, I'd be fine with an "overpay." O'Quinn I have more concerns with, from a fit perspective.
Wow, I'm not surprised to see Okafor down in the DRPM cellar with Kanter and Bargnani, but I am fairly shocked to see him dead last among centers in ORPM, even considering he's a rookie on a team with no life. And he's got signifcant breathing room over Biyombo, who's next worse. Among all players, Noel is the only one with a worse ORPM. Other rookie bigs on bad teams aren't really close either.
Some of it is visible in the box score: he's got a terrible TS% on a ton of shots, and doesn't get many offensive boards. It's a bit surprising to see him so far down though. His offensive BPM is "only" -3.6, so RPM is seeing him do a lot of stuff badly that's not showing up in the box-score.
His on/off is -15.8, but maybe that legendary Philly bench is screwing that up...
His on/off is -15.8, but maybe that legendary Philly bench is screwing that up...
Step back from your proposal for a second. You want to trade for Okafor who the 76ers drafted less than 6 months ago with the #3 pick. This is exactly why you keep those picks, because while you dont get sure things in terms of talent or draft position, you get the chance to hit a home run. Whereas with your proposal you are willing to trade 3 at bats for 1 HR. Thats just being risk averse and typically you need to take some pretty big risks to win a title. The downside of keeping the picks is that you getting crappy draft position and dont hit on the players, but Ainge is a good drafting GM. The upside of keeping the picks is that all 3 might end up in the top 5 and there is a chance we could get 2 real franchise changing players. In this case the reward completely justifies the risk.
Assuming the Nets finish 3rd worst this year, which seems likely, the pick has a 96% chance of being top 5 and a 47% chance of being top 3.
They could very well finish 1st or 2nd worst next year, since the Lakers will be better by virtue of Kobe retiring and the 76ers have to abandon their tank at all costs strategy at some point.
From my perspective the chances of a top 5 pick for 3 straight years are looking pretty good.
The Nets' hopes rest entirely on free agency, which isn't a great bet when players aren't colluding to play for your team. Also not the best year to need some FA help. Durant probably signs the 1 year deal to max out next offseason. So you're left with Conley, Horford and Derozan as the UFA headliners. Basically everybody will have cap space so Brooklyn is not unique in that regard and players will need to overlook countless better situations to go there. There are rumblings about Conley and Hollins being really tight but who knows if that guy will even be employed this summer.
My prediction (and hope) is their big splash ends up being Rondo or Jennings. Maybe they throw out an offer sheet or something. I dunno, I think their '16-'17 ceiling is middle of the pack if they can find some good value signings to deepen their roster, but all bets are off if a) they foolishly spend all their time putting the full court press on unattainable guys or b) the owner keeps his wallet closed in anticipation of selling the team.
My prediction (and hope) is their big splash ends up being Rondo or Jennings. Maybe they throw out an offer sheet or something. I dunno, I think their '16-'17 ceiling is middle of the pack if they can find some good value signings to deepen their roster, but all bets are off if a) they foolishly spend all their time putting the full court press on unattainable guys or b) the owner keeps his wallet closed in anticipation of selling the team.
I think his thing is that he thinks this particular roster is ready to compete for a title and he doesn't want to see any of them moved on, so he wants all the future picks telescoped into a player, and as you can see from the thread he doesn't even care if it's a franchise player, given that he was willing to trade all the picks for two guys to play 20 minutes a night.
I dont think its just specific to this roster, when we made the KG/PP deal he was adamantly against that because of the uncertainty of draft picks as well. But if anyone really thinks this roster is ready to contend with just 1 star added to it (not named Lebron) then a disagreement over the risk associated with draft picks is the least of our problems
Barton and O'Quinn give you two more bench players/role players to add to our entire roster full of these types. If you are trying to gain some separation in our rotations these would be the last type of players you'd want to add. We already have Barton and O'Quinn.......they just go by other names currently on our roster.
Yes, when you in asset building mode you absolutely need to win every deal.....why would you propose making a trade to get the worst end of it?
I'd rather wait and pay a premium on a real difference maker than do a bunch of 3 nickels for a dime trades. The Celtics don't need to get incrementally better, they need to get a lot better. Save the assets for the time when they can be put to better use.
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That's a pretty strong argument for benching Lee, but he's earning too much money to trade. Anyway, he'll be gone after this year.
I look at the roster and it's not 2013 anymore. The only guys getting regular minutes are in their prime. The team has been playing like a 50-win team for almost the past full year. Except for lottery picks, no recent draft picks can crack the rotation. We're past asset accumulation mode. We should be trying to elevate from a 50-win early playoff exit team to a 60-win contending team via small or large improvements.
Barton, if this year is for real, adds a dimension this team sorely lacks. A big guard who can shoot. He probably takes minutes from Smart / Bradley / Turner. Plus he has an all-world nickname "The People's Champ." I'd trade Jerebko, Young, the Dallas 1st and the Minnesota 2nd for him. Jerebko still has value because he's been a good rotation player since he came into the league and he's still in his prime. Young has value because he's still only 20 years old and is a former 1st round pick. Jerebko and Young's value (and Young's development) are rapidly depreciating though the longer they don't get minutes. The Dallas 1st and Minnesota 2nd will be in the same situation as Young, Rozier, Hunter and Mickey this year - not getting minutes & rapidly depreciating assets.
For O'Quinn, similar argument. He adds competition & quality big man depth. I trade Zeller, Mickey, Boston's 1st and Boston's 2nd. All of those assets still have value but are / will be rapidly depreciating.
If these trades take the C's from a 50-win to a 54-win team (my WAG), that's pretty significant. Still leaves plenty of picks & other assets to get the real superstar. The centerpiece for that deal would probably be 2 of the Brooklyn picks plus 1-2 other pieces.
I look at the roster and it's not 2013 anymore. The only guys getting regular minutes are in their prime. The team has been playing like a 50-win team for almost the past full year. Except for lottery picks, no recent draft picks can crack the rotation. We're past asset accumulation mode. We should be trying to elevate from a 50-win early playoff exit team to a 60-win contending team via small or large improvements.
Barton, if this year is for real, adds a dimension this team sorely lacks. A big guard who can shoot. He probably takes minutes from Smart / Bradley / Turner. Plus he has an all-world nickname "The People's Champ." I'd trade Jerebko, Young, the Dallas 1st and the Minnesota 2nd for him. Jerebko still has value because he's been a good rotation player since he came into the league and he's still in his prime. Young has value because he's still only 20 years old and is a former 1st round pick. Jerebko and Young's value (and Young's development) are rapidly depreciating though the longer they don't get minutes. The Dallas 1st and Minnesota 2nd will be in the same situation as Young, Rozier, Hunter and Mickey this year - not getting minutes & rapidly depreciating assets.
For O'Quinn, similar argument. He adds competition & quality big man depth. I trade Zeller, Mickey, Boston's 1st and Boston's 2nd. All of those assets still have value but are / will be rapidly depreciating.
If these trades take the C's from a 50-win to a 54-win team (my WAG), that's pretty significant. Still leaves plenty of picks & other assets to get the real superstar. The centerpiece for that deal would probably be 2 of the Brooklyn picks plus 1-2 other pieces.
They would demand Smart in any deal. Or they would be stupid not to at least. Unfortunately Cousins would likely cost more for us because we have more.
You are correct in that the Celtics are on pace for 44 wins. However, they are only 2 games behind the Miami Heat, who are on pace for 51. The Heat have had a very home oriented schedule so far (15 of 24 games at home), while the Celtics have an even split. The combined weighted winning percentage of Celtics opponents so far is 0.528, while for the Heat it's only 0.485. So I don't entirely agree that they haven't been playing like one. They are actually playing much closer to a 50-win team than to a 40-win once you take into account their schedule.
Agree that they need the go-to guy to go further.
Celtics as a 50-win team depends on whether you think their underperformance of their point differential is random noise, or a repeatable phenomenon. They're 14-12, but have the point differential of a 16-10 team. I would vote to it just being a fluke (always assume variance, especially in tiny samples), but you can make a case their reliance on Thomas to create shots in the half-court means they're going to systematically underperform.
They remain on pace for 50 wins in my projections, and 49 wins in 538's.
They remain on pace for 50 wins in my projections, and 49 wins in 538's.
I'd say the C's outperformed as a 54-win pace team over the last 36 games last year with essentially the same roster. And, I'd say they are underperforming on their current 44-win pace so far this year for reasons some have already mentioned. Average those two and you get 49 wins which seems about right to me. Basically, we need to "find" another 10 wins or so to start thinking about contending for real, and there's really no good reason to delay that process with many rapidly depreciating assets on the roster.
I must note that I raised the issue of 3 picks for Okafor as a question, not a strident demand. Perhaps he is not worth it. Even better, perhaps he could be gotten for less (i.e;' one NJ pick and 3 Boston picks)
The point of the proposal is that it is, just possibly, feasible. I just don't see any other team with worthwhile assets -- players that would help (especially on the offensive end ) fairly soon -- that are deep in tank mode. Except maybe Cousins, and his downside can't be ignored.
The real disagreement is whether or not the Celts are in GFIN mode; where "now" could be realized this or next year.
* GFIN mode: Score a valuable asset (perhaps overpaying) this year, and with the resulting "50+" win team attract a free agent next year .
And maybe get lucky with one of the slew of protected first round picks; and assume that that olynk/bradley/smart/sullinger continue to improve.
* Not yet GFIN mode: Build via the draft: hold on to the picks and hope you get lucky.
That means you are almost certainly going to be building a new team around these picks (since they are likely to be impact players in 3 to 5 years).
Which is the better approach? It's not an easy call, but I favor the former.
Why: I definitely like (and I am not alone in this) watching a team that has a shot of winning on any given night. I also like homegrown talent, and players who are bit underdoggy (Hello Tom Brady, Hello Steph Curry).
If that means a possible reduction in odds of winning it all (and how big this "some reduction" is --- we beat to death in the past), that's okay by me.
BTW: as for my sentimental reluctance to trade KG and PP --- well, for PP the sentiment was true, it would of been nice to have him retire as a celtics (and the Wizards version of him
would be VERY useful on this celtics team)! Also... the Nets went from big spenders to a keep-it-below-the-cap team. Is that correlated with drops in oil price/ ukraine sanctions -- which could
of effected the fortunes of Prokhorov (see https://beta.finance.yahoo.com/news/mikhail-prokhorov-just-invested-another-220022777.html) ?
Does Ainge have that kind of geopolitical savvy?
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What people are objecting to is your assesment of Okafor -- as of now, he looks at best like a poor man's version of Al Jefferson. And even that is being generous. He's an offense first center with the shooting percentage of a guard, who gets his shot blocked more than anyone by a large margin. He brings worse than nothing on defense. He's young and talented, but he's also dead-last in RPM among centers by a huge margin. He's making Primo Pasta Bargnani look like Marc Gasol.
You don't trade a pick for him under any circumstances right now. You don't even trade Jordan Mickey for him right now. I just don't know how you can suggest trading for him in the same breath as you suggest that Demarcus Cousins' "downside can't be ignored." One of these guys is a dominant two-way player who, until his rough start this year, has made his team win whenever he's on the court; the other is 20 years old and is as likely to drive off a bridge going too fast as he is to be a future All-Star.
Let's be clear about this: if you get the opportunity to trade for Cousins, you do it every single time. I'd hate to lose Smart, but if that's the cost of doing business, you do it. The stuff about Cousins being petulant is overblown: he's certainly no Buddha, but I'd be petulant playing for that abysmal franchise, too. Marcus was one of those 'questionable characters' coming out of college, and besides an encounter with the Red Mamba's red mamba, we've heard almost nothing about that since he started playing under Brad.
Huh? There is no universe in which you take Jordan Mickey's marginal upside over Okafor's considerably higher one. None whatsoever.