A Realistic but Optimistic Scenario
It's July 19.
They've had a scorching hot month since mid-June, but it came against week opposition: they swept the Yankees, who were in free fall, and then took three of four on the road against the Twins, who were also in free fall, before sweeping a three-game set in Chicago in New Comiskey. They split the next 12 games against Miami, Toronto, Texas, and Oakland, and went into the All Star Break 49-42. But then they ran off another six-game win streak against the Cubs and Athletics coming out of the break, and sat at 55-42, a .567 winning percentage, in possession of third place in the AL East and the second wild card spot.
The trade deadline is a week and change away, but before it comes, the Red Sox will need to face some considerably stiffer opponents: three with the resurgent Mets, two with the Braves, and three with the Giants. After the deadline, the teams remaining on the schedule are a mixed bag: Seattle, Toronto, KC, Detroit, and Washington, but then a bruising conclusion with series against Houston, NYY, LAD, and Houston again.
Raquel Ferreira calls you up (remember, this is fiction) and asks you what you think the team should do.
Relevant IL considerations:
A Realistic but Pessimistic Scenario
It's July 19.
The Red Sox have sleepwalked through the last month, often playing down to the level of their opposition and looking overmatched against stronger teams. They took three of four from the Twins, but then scuffled against the White Sox, Miami, Toronto and Texas, before righting the ship with a stronger stretch of play against the A's and Cubs. They sit at 50-47, leading only Toronto in the East, and two games out of the third wild card spot. The trade deadline is a week and change away, but before it comes, the Red Sox will need to face some considerably stiffer opponents: three with the resurgent Mets, two with the Braves, and three with the Giants. It will take a good performance to still be three above .500 come the deadline.
The teams remaining on the schedule after the deadline are a mixed bag: Seattle, Toronto, KC, Detroit, and Washington, but then a bruising conclusion with series against Houston, NYY, LAD, and Houston again.
Brian O'Halloran calls you up and asks you what you think the team should do.
Same IL and minor league considerations as above. What sorts of moves are you pitching the FO on in this scenario?
I have some ideas, but I'd like to let you all start. Feel free to sketch out your own proposals and scenarios, but I'd like to avoid trade proposals divorced from some account of the lay of the land.
It's July 19.
They've had a scorching hot month since mid-June, but it came against week opposition: they swept the Yankees, who were in free fall, and then took three of four on the road against the Twins, who were also in free fall, before sweeping a three-game set in Chicago in New Comiskey. They split the next 12 games against Miami, Toronto, Texas, and Oakland, and went into the All Star Break 49-42. But then they ran off another six-game win streak against the Cubs and Athletics coming out of the break, and sat at 55-42, a .567 winning percentage, in possession of third place in the AL East and the second wild card spot.
The trade deadline is a week and change away, but before it comes, the Red Sox will need to face some considerably stiffer opponents: three with the resurgent Mets, two with the Braves, and three with the Giants. After the deadline, the teams remaining on the schedule are a mixed bag: Seattle, Toronto, KC, Detroit, and Washington, but then a bruising conclusion with series against Houston, NYY, LAD, and Houston again.
Raquel Ferreira calls you up (remember, this is fiction) and asks you what you think the team should do.
Relevant IL considerations:
- Tanner Houck is throwing off a mound, and is headed to Portland for rehab starts in the next few days.
- Chris Sale is set to begin throwing from flat ground, and a typical progression would get him into rehab starts in the second week of August.
- Trevor Story is hitting and throwing and doing fielding drills in Fort Myers, and aiming for a few dozen PA before he returns.
- In this fictional scenario, no one else of note has been injured.
- Bobby Dalbec has an OPS over 1.000 in AAA;
- Wilyer Abreu has an OPS over .850 in AAA;
- Enmanuel Valdez has an OPS around .900 in AAA;
- David Hamilton has an OPS around .830 in AAA;
- Shane Drohan is the only pitcher of any note in AAA, and he's on a bit of a run that has brought his International League ERA down to 4.25.
- In Portland, Yorke has an OPS around .880.
- Ceddanne Rafaela's hot streak has continued, and his OPS is a tic over .800.
- Chase Meidroth still has an OBP-heavy .850 OPS.
- Marcelo Mayer has gotten his footing, but still has an OPS around .670 at AA.
- On the pitching side, Luis Guerrero has gotten his early-season walk struggles under control, and now looks like a late-inning relief option as soon as 2024.
- Grant Gambrell is the most interesting starter at the level, with a 3.00ish ERA miles below his FIP, but a sky-high groundball rate driven by a heavy sinker.
- In High-A Greenville, teams are asking about closer Chris Troye, who has 55 K in 30 IP.
- On the offensive side, 19-year-old Roman Anthony is one of the youngest players in the league and also one of the five best hitters. That is getting some attention.
- Miguel Bleis is shut down for the season with a shoulder injury.
A Realistic but Pessimistic Scenario
It's July 19.
The Red Sox have sleepwalked through the last month, often playing down to the level of their opposition and looking overmatched against stronger teams. They took three of four from the Twins, but then scuffled against the White Sox, Miami, Toronto and Texas, before righting the ship with a stronger stretch of play against the A's and Cubs. They sit at 50-47, leading only Toronto in the East, and two games out of the third wild card spot. The trade deadline is a week and change away, but before it comes, the Red Sox will need to face some considerably stiffer opponents: three with the resurgent Mets, two with the Braves, and three with the Giants. It will take a good performance to still be three above .500 come the deadline.
The teams remaining on the schedule after the deadline are a mixed bag: Seattle, Toronto, KC, Detroit, and Washington, but then a bruising conclusion with series against Houston, NYY, LAD, and Houston again.
Brian O'Halloran calls you up and asks you what you think the team should do.
Same IL and minor league considerations as above. What sorts of moves are you pitching the FO on in this scenario?
I have some ideas, but I'd like to let you all start. Feel free to sketch out your own proposals and scenarios, but I'd like to avoid trade proposals divorced from some account of the lay of the land.