BeantownIdaho said:
Apparently BC disagrees with you. From his press conference per Tim Britton Providence Journal:it dimin
In Middlebrooks, Cherington understands the Red Sox have sold low on a player who was their top prospect three years ago and seemingly a budding All-Star as a rookie in 2012. Still, there was obviously no room for Middlebrooks’ in Boston’s plans, not with
Pablo Sandoval onboard for the next five seasons.
“We still believe in him. The last few years haven’t gone well, but the talent is still in there. My guess is he’ll find a way to flourish in the big leagues. I’ll be rooting for him,” Cherington said of Middlebrooks.
http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20141220-catcher-ryan-hanigan-embracing-chance-to-come-home.ece
Every time the Sox sell low, it diminishes their overall talent level now and in the future. Thomas Boswell is still a great baseball writer in this region. He nailed it in analyzing the recent swap of Steven Souza (definitely sold high) for Trea Turner:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/washington-nationals-show-a-patience-other-teams-would-do-well-to-follow/2014/12/19/2a2085c4-8703-11e4-a702-fa31ff4ae98e_story.html
The consensus is that Turner will ultimately replace Ian Desmond who, like Jordan Zimmerman, will get one more chance to win a world series in Washington before being allowed to leave as a free agent. They also have Zimmerman's replacement in waiting, Lucas Giolito, closing in on the majors:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=giolit000luc
Cherington gets it. Though, in one sense he sold low on Lester nearing free agency, he masterfully transformed 2 months of meaningless performance by Lester in a lost season into a year (and maybe more) of Rick Porcello before he reaches his peak. Likewise, with a deeper farm system than the Nationals, rather than having a single egg in his staggered ace replacement basket, Cherington has Owens, Rodriguez, Johnson and maybe Ball as promising lefties with ace upside (though there is never a guarantee that even the best prospects will succeed in the majors).
DLR and Webster were also sold low but for a cost controlled established major league lefty, Miley, still in his prime and younger than the now gone Lester. Likewise, Middlebrooks was sold low but for a scarce resource, a decent backup major league catcher with the ability to buffer the predictably inconsistent transition of Vazquez and Swihart into quality major league catchers. If they acquired Hanigan only to make Swihart available in a trade for an expensive older ace like Hamels, this will be a huge mistake. Some prospects aren't sold high or low. They must be patiently nurtured until they perform as an organization expects.
The Nationals have a thinner margin for error than the Sox in terms of their talent development. Likewise, they have a smaller margin of error financially:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2014/12/20/the-washington-nationals-are-in-good-shape-for-the-future/
Despite everyone's clamor for immediate acquisition of an ace, the Sox don't want to get so far over the luxury tax too early this season that they can't get back under it, as planned, next season. If the Sox contend as we hope, renting an ace for the stretch run from a down team (Cueto from the Reds will more likely be available than will Zimmerman with the Nats) makes sense. They can't overpay for such a rental and must be prepared to accept the draft pick and the payroll relief if they can't retain such an ace.
The best case scenario will be for one of the Sox pitching prospects to develop into their next ace. The next best scenario will be selling high on an asset to acquire another ace prospect like Syndergaard. This is what Rizzo did so well with Souza for Turner (a future stud SS). The third best way is the equivalent of an NBA sign and trade to get an established ace by trade. This is what they did with Pedro, what they probably hope to do with Porcello and might be pressured to do for already contracted Hamels (but only if the trade doesn't include their untouchable young players and prospects). The last resort will be to sign an ace only during their prime years of production (not during their decline). Zimmerman or Cueto might be possible next winter.
You can't always sell high and, because of the pressure in the Red Sox market, must often sell low. Cherington understands this and does as well as he can when he must turn those lemons into lemonade.