Nice move. We got someone immediately useful for WMB. Can't ask for better than that. Obviously, I'm not high on Middlebrooks either.
Sox trade Will Middlebrooks for Ryan Hanigan
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
"His OBP looks good, but is there data that shows how much that is inflated as a result of batting 8th in a NL lineup? His offense could be worse than the numbers indicate."
He's had 37 IBB's while batting 8th. He's had 1 batting anywhere else in the order. But his OBP is lower batting 8th than overall: .348 to .353
He's had 37 IBB's while batting 8th. He's had 1 batting anywhere else in the order. But his OBP is lower batting 8th than overall: .348 to .353
Win/win trade.DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
I'm gonna miss Ross' character on the team. I really enjoyed what he brought, off-field wise. And as noted above, he had his moments on the field too.
Hank Scorpio said:
I wonder how much is Hanigan and how much is the pitchers he was catching. Chris Archer had a 74% stolen base rate against in 2014, and was at 89% in 2013. Alex Cobb went from 75 to 86% but has an 87% career rate. Odorizzi only had 4 starts in 2013 and no attempts against him, so no comparative data, but his rate in 2014 was only 40%. In a little over 75 innings pitched, Bedard only had one attempt against him and it was successful, so no data to work with there. And Price's rate in Tampa last year was 73% up from 52% with a career rate of 64%.
Add in the fact that B-R.com doesn't break this data down by catcher on each pitcher's page (or if they do, I wasn't able to find it) and it's tough to say just how much of Hanigan's drop was on him and how much was being with a different pitching staff.
FWIW, the Red Sox starting rotation has career rates that break down as follows:
Porcello - 72%
Miley - 44%
Masterson - 69%
Buchholz - 65%
Kelly - 71%
bosockboy said:
He was one of the 25 on the 2013 team. A lot of better players than WMB never got a ring, let alone were on the postseason roster.
The fact that no one would even consider starting a "Thank You Will Middlebrooks" thread shows how spoiled we've become.
M
MentalDisabldLst
Guest
Wombat heads down that lonely road:
As someone else observed, he got the 8th-inning rally started that let Ortiz come up in that inning and pull us back from the brink against Detroit. A piece of that magic will be his forever. Can't hate on the guy. But man, did we get good value for him. Maybe not in an absolute sense, but certainly in a relative sense to what Middlebrooks was going to provide to the 2015 and 2016 team.
As someone else observed, he got the 8th-inning rally started that let Ortiz come up in that inning and pull us back from the brink against Detroit. A piece of that magic will be his forever. Can't hate on the guy. But man, did we get good value for him. Maybe not in an absolute sense, but certainly in a relative sense to what Middlebrooks was going to provide to the 2015 and 2016 team.
I was really hoping that the Sox would sign Hanigan last year, but instead they went for AJP.
I'll take that as correcting a mistake.
I'll take that as correcting a mistake.
ShaneTrot said:
The Sox didn't make this trade expecting an upgrade in offensive performance. They traded a guy who had no shot of playing to get a useful player at a position of need.
If Hanigan comes close to equaling WMB's offensive output in 2015, the trade will be a very one-sided deal in favor of the Sox.
Love having Hannigan as Vazquez's caddy. As other's have said, exactly the type who can expand his role if necessitated by extended growing pains of the two kids. Having control for multiple years also means you can includ one of the kids in a blockbuster deal down the road if that ends up making sense.
Too bad that's what Middlebrooks had regressed to. People should remember what he would have fetched in the 2012_13 offseason when saying they don't want to trade this or that prospect.
Too bad that's what Middlebrooks had regressed to. People should remember what he would have fetched in the 2012_13 offseason when saying they don't want to trade this or that prospect.
I'll join the chorus.
As much as Will appears to have more upside, and as much as it's a little disconcerting to part with a guy who has shown some power from the right side, WMB has been stuck in injured and general suckass for quite a while, and of course one of the Sox needs was at back-up catcher.
What's the over/under on when we hear that the Cubs have signed Lester's binky? 48 hours?
And yes, heres to David Ross. True, he grabbed WAY too much air time in the 2013 World Series movie, but having him around when JF lost some confidence in Salty at the very end was handy, and Ross came though with some big hits and solid defense as they closed out that series. It wouldn't kill me to see him in the Sox manager's chair some day.
As much as Will appears to have more upside, and as much as it's a little disconcerting to part with a guy who has shown some power from the right side, WMB has been stuck in injured and general suckass for quite a while, and of course one of the Sox needs was at back-up catcher.
What's the over/under on when we hear that the Cubs have signed Lester's binky? 48 hours?
And yes, heres to David Ross. True, he grabbed WAY too much air time in the 2013 World Series movie, but having him around when JF lost some confidence in Salty at the very end was handy, and Ross came though with some big hits and solid defense as they closed out that series. It wouldn't kill me to see him in the Sox manager's chair some day.
I once had high hopes for WMB, so I'm sad to see that this is all we were able to get for him (and that he needed to be moved). Declining skills (Toronto-based games, notwithstanding), refusal to play winter ball (bad attitude?), and injuries resulted in a guy I had pegged for 30+ HR each season down to a guy traded for someone no one here views as more than a bridge to Swihart kind of sucks. That said, I like Hanigan and feel it's a decent deal considering where Will had fallen.
One thing to note, that park is going to make any resurgence he may have look worse. Not sure why SD wanted him, but I still hope for the best for both Hanigan and WMB. Hopefully Will can turn it around a bit and, more importantly, hopefully Hanigan proves to be as valuable as some here seem to think he will.
One thing to note, that park is going to make any resurgence he may have look worse. Not sure why SD wanted him, but I still hope for the best for both Hanigan and WMB. Hopefully Will can turn it around a bit and, more importantly, hopefully Hanigan proves to be as valuable as some here seem to think he will.
If you accept the catcher framing statistics he is significantly underpaid for a backup or starting catcher. On a team that is trying to take advantage of the expanding strike zone I think Hanigan provides a ton of value. WMB had nearly none.maufman said:
Hanigan is the right guy to grab.
Knows the AL East hitters, vet (but not Ross old), will bat 9th when he plays so if he takes a walk/works a count- Great, maybe gives the team some added insight into Tampa's pitchers, adds depth - Butler can be on the shuttle if injuries crop up, gives Swihart more time.
Nice job by the front office.
Knows the AL East hitters, vet (but not Ross old), will bat 9th when he plays so if he takes a walk/works a count- Great, maybe gives the team some added insight into Tampa's pitchers, adds depth - Butler can be on the shuttle if injuries crop up, gives Swihart more time.
Nice job by the front office.
I was at that game, and I wondered if you could tell on TV just how much that broke the Cardinals fans. Lester being dominant, the Ellsbury hit, X on the bases; none of it drew the reaction of the Ross double. They knew they needed to get him out, and I felt the collective groan in my chest. I swear I saw a few people tear up around me. It was glorious/brutal.bosockboy said:
Hank Scorpio said:
Runners steal bases on catchers, pitchers, and at least in the case of Kerrigan, managers. Hanigan's decline was coincident with his move from the Reds to the Rays, so it's likely more to do with the new pitchers + management philosophy. TBR has been below league average in caught stealing since at least 2009.
TheoShmeo said:
I think the only real criticism of this trade could be that we might have sent WMB to AAA to work out his swing and increase his trade value (or become a potential Napoli replacement). He's got a very similar skill set to Cespedes - RH power, decent defender, low OBP. WMB was injured (no question of that) and may need a stretch to regain his swing. So, theoretically he could have fetched a bigger piece.
However, there's a risk that WMB shows nothing in AAA and Vasquez, et. al. run into problems. So we got a needed piece of insurance at the price of potential future development.
This may make it more likely that we hold onto Craig as the AAA power/reclamation project.
Pete Abraham @PeteAbe · 35m35 minutes agoAs of two weeks ago, Middlebrooks had not started swinging a bat and still had discomfort in his hand. His physical isn’t perfunctory
Agree with this. Don't understand how he thought playing in the Ortiz golf tourney was acceptable.
WMB was a binkie of mine but I love this trade ( if it goes through. ) Count me as another who thinks Hanigan is a good complimentary backup to Vazquez. He's great defensively and he gets on base. I'm impressed by what Ben has done this off season so far.
BestGameEvah said:
https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/546000326948839424"]35m35
link to tweet minutes ago[/url]
As of two weeks ago, Middlebrooks had not started swinging a bat and still had discomfort in his hand. His physical isnt perfunctory
Agree with this. Don't understand how he thought playing in the Ortiz golf tourney was acceptable.
This, of course, means you should discount the poor stats from last season heavily. Not clear to me at all why he was out there all September flailing at balls with a hand that is still not healed 3 months later and that could, according to this tweet, not pass a physical. Mindblowing that they had him out there playing that hurt in meaningless games.
I was terribly disappointed a few days ago to hear he was going to the Padres, but I reckoned that a trade within the AL East wasn't all that likely. Does this make that "Myers" trade a four-team deal? Do we assume Ben was in on this from the beginning?Mugsys Jock said:
Rovin Romine said:
Increase his trade value to what, though? I think at best holding on to him and hoping for improvement might have resulted in his being just good enough to be a piece of a mid-season trade. That's assuming he gets and stays healthy (PeteAbe tweeted today that WMB hasn't picked up a bat this winter due to lingering hand issues).
Instead, right now in his injured and highly questionable state, he netted the Sox a useful and needed big league player by himself. It's a minor miracle, if you ask me.
Plympton91
Read some comments from Will himself about trying to show the Sox what a player he was...
“Obviously, this year being almost over and not being great, we’re looking to win next year. We’re not looking to win down the road. I understand that. They need to know. I’m hoping to have a strong month [of September] so I can give them a better feeling.”
Read some comments from Will himself about trying to show the Sox what a player he was...
“Obviously, this year being almost over and not being great, we’re looking to win next year. We’re not looking to win down the road. I understand that. They need to know. I’m hoping to have a strong month [of September] so I can give them a better feeling.”
Plympton91 said:
Unless this happened:
Farrell: Will, how's the hand?
Will: It's fine. My shittiness has nothing to do with it. It doesn't hurt at all. I wish it did, then I'd have an excuse.
Middlebrooks has either been getting bad advice or is dumb as a post.
joe dokes said:
Or he could have just been trying to "tough it out" like one of the leaders on the club, Dustin Pedroia. Not saying Pedroia put pressure on him, but the example he sets where he's played through various hand/wrist injuries for the past two years could have had an impact on the way the younger players view/approach things.
MakMan44 said:
Not if he was really that hurt. I can imagine if he was that hurt and hiding it, waiting for the winter to recover and the Sox found about it in the manner they did (Sox: Will, we'd like you to play winter ball to regain your stroke; Will: I'm hurt more than I told you) that it would have caused some exasperation with Mgt.
I see your point, but I think that would point back to Will being dumb. Playing hurt through meaningless games, only to say "Hey, I can't play in Winter Ball like you want because I was trying to play through an injury the end of the season" is ridiculous. I don't really have more to add, because you might be right (it was Pedey's influence) and it's not like we'll ever get a real answer.Yazdog8 said:
If you actually look back at WMB's career, he was clearly overrated being part of a weak farm system in 2011 and getting off to the horrid start in 2012 and being one of the only bright spots that year. We did the same thing to JBJ, although WMB had some pretty glaring weaknesses in the minors that would suggest he wasn't going to make it. Bradley had less signs and still has great value as a 4th O if he never hits any better.
I'll be mad if he finally gets eye surgery and starts tearing the cover off the ball but I don't see it. Hitting in Petco isn't goiNo help. But the bar to be cleared isn't very high nowadays so if he can live up to the defensive promise he once had and has an OPS hovering around .700, he'll have a career.
Hanigan is a great fit because he could actually start incase Christian gets injured or is OPSing .500. Him not hitting at all is a very real possibility and outside of one 3-5 or 4-5 game, his OPS would have been right in that range at the MLB level. SSS and cherry picking, I know. He also has a history of struggling badly upon promotion so maybe he'll hit better next year because of his audition this year.
Out of all the prospects we've called up, Christian's bat is the weakest we've seen this side of Jose Iglesias in recent years. After seeing a lot of our non elite prospects failing, here is hoping he bucks the trend. Of course some would have ranked Garin, JBJ, and WMB as elite at some point but I disagree. Margot is more a prospect than they ever were.
Long story, but I like this trade. Now just move two of Vic, Nava and Craig, and sign a real backup SS so we don't have to rush Merrero if X goes out for a month or two. I can't see the Sox going into the year with Brock Holt second on the SS depth chart. Hanigan, Holt, back up SS, and the leftover from Nava/Craig/Vic.
Edit: Garin hasn't failed yet and had a decent 2nd half. Jury is out, but going into 2014, he was lumped in the 2-4 range with Blake and Betts. He's shown less power and has stolen way less bases as he's progressed through the system.
I'll be mad if he finally gets eye surgery and starts tearing the cover off the ball but I don't see it. Hitting in Petco isn't goiNo help. But the bar to be cleared isn't very high nowadays so if he can live up to the defensive promise he once had and has an OPS hovering around .700, he'll have a career.
Hanigan is a great fit because he could actually start incase Christian gets injured or is OPSing .500. Him not hitting at all is a very real possibility and outside of one 3-5 or 4-5 game, his OPS would have been right in that range at the MLB level. SSS and cherry picking, I know. He also has a history of struggling badly upon promotion so maybe he'll hit better next year because of his audition this year.
Out of all the prospects we've called up, Christian's bat is the weakest we've seen this side of Jose Iglesias in recent years. After seeing a lot of our non elite prospects failing, here is hoping he bucks the trend. Of course some would have ranked Garin, JBJ, and WMB as elite at some point but I disagree. Margot is more a prospect than they ever were.
Long story, but I like this trade. Now just move two of Vic, Nava and Craig, and sign a real backup SS so we don't have to rush Merrero if X goes out for a month or two. I can't see the Sox going into the year with Brock Holt second on the SS depth chart. Hanigan, Holt, back up SS, and the leftover from Nava/Craig/Vic.
Edit: Garin hasn't failed yet and had a decent 2nd half. Jury is out, but going into 2014, he was lumped in the 2-4 range with Blake and Betts. He's shown less power and has stolen way less bases as he's progressed through the system.
maufman said:
Sox owe Hanigan about ~3.5 this year and next year, with an option the 3rd year. That's the price of about 0.5 WAR on the FA market this year. Steamer projects him for 2.1 WAR in 386 PA. If he only gets half that number of PAs he'll be more than worth his contract. There really weren't any worthwhile backup catchers on the free agent market this year. Maybe they could have flipped Middlebrooks for someone else's troubled prospect, but that 20% chance of success number seems arbitrary and I would bet it's a lot lower than that. I'm happy they were able to turn WMB into real present value instead of taking out a risky flyer on a prospect. The Sox are high enough on the win curve now that they should value more predictable present value over less predictable future value with a higher ceiling. The Sox need certainty more than they need risk.
joe dokes said:
After the 2012 debacle, Farrell made a lot of hay about working with Cherington to put together an all baseball-guy team of players with real passion for the game and who put it before almost everything else in their lives. To me, refusing to get LASIK/wear contacts and play winter ball sounds like he's just not one of their guys.
I was really excited about Middlebrooks but now I'm thinking, yeah, he just might be brick stupid.
bellowthecat said:
Yep. After raving about how much better he could see the ball with them.
From WEEI on June 13:
He may be blowing literally millions and millions of dollars because he doesn't realize you get used to contacts over time and he can't work out how to use eye drops.
Dammit, I'm getting angry about this again. Cost controlled power goddammit!!
There is no Rev said:
With "entitlement behavior" players like Middlebrooks headed out the door, this puff piece about what kind of a baseball guy Castillo is, compared to the usual Puigs in lipstick according to old Sox friend Alex Cora, is a feel good story:
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/41395/cora-on-castillo-hes-not-a-prima-donna
Hoy crap! Ross got 2 years and $5MM from Cubs
The Cubs have agreed to a two-year, $5MM deal with catcher David Ross, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. Reports emerged earlier today suggesting that the veteran was headed to the Padres, but indications are that he is in fact set to join former teammate Jon Lester in Chicago.
Ross, a client of Sports One Athlete Management client, will add yet more veteran leadership behind the plate for the Cubs. He will slot in alongside the recently-acquired Miguel Montero, providing a right-handed-hitting complement. Chicago also added another former Red Sox backstop today in Ryan Lavarnway, who was added via waiver claim.
Before joining the Red Sox in 2013, Ross spent four years as the reserve option for the Braves. He slashed a robust .269/.353/.463, but never made more than 200 plate appearances in a given season. Ross has fallen back to a .650 OPS over the last two seasons in Boston, over 287 plate appearances. Defensively, Baseball Prospectus did not value Ross’s work very highly last year.
In the aggregate, then, there are plenty of questions about Ross’s abilities moving forward. But he does have a rather high established ceiling for a backup catcher, and obviously is one of the game’s most respected elder statesmen at this stage of his career.
MLB Trade Rumors
The Cubs have agreed to a two-year, $5MM deal with catcher David Ross, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. Reports emerged earlier today suggesting that the veteran was headed to the Padres, but indications are that he is in fact set to join former teammate Jon Lester in Chicago.
Ross, a client of Sports One Athlete Management client, will add yet more veteran leadership behind the plate for the Cubs. He will slot in alongside the recently-acquired Miguel Montero, providing a right-handed-hitting complement. Chicago also added another former Red Sox backstop today in Ryan Lavarnway, who was added via waiver claim.
Before joining the Red Sox in 2013, Ross spent four years as the reserve option for the Braves. He slashed a robust .269/.353/.463, but never made more than 200 plate appearances in a given season. Ross has fallen back to a .650 OPS over the last two seasons in Boston, over 287 plate appearances. Defensively, Baseball Prospectus did not value Ross’s work very highly last year.
In the aggregate, then, there are plenty of questions about Ross’s abilities moving forward. But he does have a rather high established ceiling for a backup catcher, and obviously is one of the game’s most respected elder statesmen at this stage of his career.
MLB Trade Rumors
Red(s)HawksFan said:
Possibly nothing. If we held onto him in AAA to see what happened in 2015, his new baseline would establish his trade value, which would all on a range of worthless to "a player to keep." But the Sox had to risk the "worthless" result to see what WMB had - instead they traded him for a good piece.
Now he's sort of the Padres' Craig - lots of potential but recent injury and no clean baseline. Who do we have left as power lottery tickets close to the Majors? Lavarnway's ship has sailed, ditto WMB. Craig, Brentz, and Shaw?
Sad to see Middlebrooks have to go, given his potential. But I also have limited patience for players who seemingly squander their talents. We don't know for sure, but as Rev's post above points out, that appears to have at least played a role here.
Also like what the trade does for Pawtucket by clearing out a potential left-side logjam had Will stayed with the organization.
Thanks for 2013, Will.
Edit: Alcohol-fueled immature comment deleted.
Also like what the trade does for Pawtucket by clearing out a potential left-side logjam had Will stayed with the organization.
Thanks for 2013, Will.
Edit: Alcohol-fueled immature comment deleted.
It looks to me as if Hanigan is a middling framer; better than AJ, not nearly as good as Vaz. He does seem to have a strength in that he doesn't give up balls inside the zone -- AJ was very bad at that,with 5.7% of the balls called on him actually being strikes, while for Vaz and Hanigan the numbers are 3.8 and 3.7% respectively; but (unlike Vazquez) Hanigan doesn't get a ton more balls called strikes than did AJ.PrometheusWakefield said:
Called strikes in 2014. The blue lines are the "classic" strike zone and (dashed) the de facto 2014 zone; the green line is the strike zone that AJ got.
Balls:
In the pantheon of prospects who I really wanted to see have success, WMB is right at the top. Was fortunate to have some personal interactions with him and he was unbelievably giving with his time. Sorry to see him go, understand it's probably necessary, and I wish him nothing but the best.
iayork said:It looks to me as if Hanigan is a middling framer; better than AJ, not nearly as good as Vaz. He does seem to have a strength in that he doesn't give up balls inside the zone -- AJ was very bad at that,with 5.7% of the balls called on him actually being strikes, while for Vaz and Hanigan the numbers are 3.8 and 3.7% respectively; but (unlike Vazquez) Hanigan doesn't get a ton more balls called strikes than did AJ.
Called strikes in 2014. The blue lines are the "classic" strike zone and (dashed) the de facto 2014 zone; the green line is the strike zone that AJ got.
Balls:
Can you expand on the bolded? (no pun intended)
iayork said:
There is no Rev said:
The green box contains every pitch that was called a strike for AJ in 2014; note how in the middle plot (AJ's) it passes through the outermost dots. That means that any dots outside that box (in Vazquez and Hanigan's plots) are pitches that those guys got called strikes, that AJ wouldn't have. I was just looking for a simple way to show the difference between AJ's results and Vazquez/Hanigan's.
It can be expressed in percentages: 21.3% of the strikes AJ got called were outside the 2014 strike zone, while 26.1% of Vazquez's and 23.4% of Hanigan's were. But I thought it was easier visualized this way.
(And what I'm calling the "2014 strike zone" isn't, really. The top and bottom are right, but the sides are the "official" zone, the edges of the plate, whereas the actual called zones curves out on the sides a lot more; you can see that in the "balls" plot. That's why the percent of strikes "outside the zone" is relatively high.)
Middlebrooks may turn out to be a RHH Phil Plantier - 34 HR for the Pads in '93 - but this is a decent trade as the Sox got a piece they needed, and still have resources to add pitching.