Sox trade Will Middlebrooks for Ryan Hanigan
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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ji oh said:
With the sample sizes we're talking about (a full season's at bats over three years for Plantier, for example) those numbers are not going to be particularly informative.
The general comparison is pretty apt; third basemen who flashed big power early, but faltered in an extended opportunity. Traded from the Red Sox to the Padres.
He played a fair amount at third his first two years in the minors:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=planti001phi#standard_fielding::none
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=planti001phi#standard_fielding::none
His CS% did decline but was just about where Ross was last year 21% v 22%. Overall his CS% is a tad better than Ross; 38% v 37%. Plus hes younger than Ross.Hank Scorpio said:Perhaps a bit concerning is his sudden drop in CS%.
He had the best rate in the league in both 2012 and 2013 (48% and 45%), but then fell to 21% last season. Every other season he's been between 32 and 43%.
Wonder if they're buddies. While the Rays are blowing it up, I really hope we at least explore a trade for Cobb.
I like the trade alot. I wanted WMB to succeed but somehow he could never make in at Fenway and with Sandoval, everyone knew he was going. With a more than adequate, experienced younger back-up catcher over a blocked WMB at 3rd, whats there not to like?
I was on record favoring a deal where Middlebrooks and Cespedes, plus 2 prospects (probably Owens and Cecchini or Marrero) head to San Diego for Cashner. That isn't happening, but I think the Padres still believe WMB has upside, and I agree. He's 26, he can field the position, and he's shown power skills in the majors. The trade does indeed address an obvious need for the Sox, a short term catching solution to go with Vazquez who will help mostly defensively and as a pitch framer. Most importantly, he's not making a lot of money, and won't block Swihart, who might be ready by the end of 2015. Still, I have to admit that there is a very small likelihood that the Sox get a significantly greater return for this trade-Hanigan is likely a 1 year solution, and won't be a 4 win player. The Padres, on the other hand, get a guy who could go on to have 5-6 years of control who could be an above average regular at a tough position to fill. I'll stipulate that the WMB the Sox saw over the past 2 seasons isn't anyone's idea of a plus asset, but there is a small (5-10%) chance that WMB figures something out, and provides somewhere in the neighborhood of 8-10 wins of value-or more-over the life of his controllable time in San Diego. It's a good gamble for the Padres to take, and I hope it works out for them.
I think the Sox sold low on WMB, and I realize I'm in the minority here. Given the circumstances (WMB wasn't likely to play much in the majors in 2015), I don't know how much his value would have improved by playing 3b at Pawtucket, so perhaps this is the best they could do with him at the moment. I still feel like this could end up being very good for San Diego. Even if WMB is a total zero, and he's out of the league in 3 years, all it cost the Padres was a backup catcher. I think Preller was wise to take a chance on WMB, and the price was right.
I think the Sox sold low on WMB, and I realize I'm in the minority here. Given the circumstances (WMB wasn't likely to play much in the majors in 2015), I don't know how much his value would have improved by playing 3b at Pawtucket, so perhaps this is the best they could do with him at the moment. I still feel like this could end up being very good for San Diego. Even if WMB is a total zero, and he's out of the league in 3 years, all it cost the Padres was a backup catcher. I think Preller was wise to take a chance on WMB, and the price was right.
jasvlm said:
Since major playing time at 3B for WMB in AAA was not a sure thing, his current "low" value could have cratered further in 2015.
There is no such thing as a valuable 27 year old in AAA. Every day WMB doesn't start as a major league third baseman is a day his value goes down. If anything, we sold high.
Apparently BC disagrees with you. From his press conference per Tim Britton Providence Journal:PrometheusWakefield said:
In Middlebrooks, Cherington understands the Red Sox have sold low on a player who was their top prospect three years ago and seemingly a budding All-Star as a rookie in 2012. Still, there was obviously no room for Middlebrooks’ in Boston’s plans, not with Pablo Sandoval onboard for the next five seasons.
“We still believe in him. The last few years haven’t gone well, but the talent is still in there. My guess is he’ll find a way to flourish in the big leagues. I’ll be rooting for him,” Cherington said of Middlebrooks.
http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20141220-catcher-ryan-hanigan-embracing-chance-to-come-home.ece
"We've lost all faith in him. He's sucked the last few years and has no obvious upside. My guess is he would have eventually been released in order to open up a spot on the roster. He can go fuck himself," Cherington said of Middlebrooks when he thought no one was listening.
"I don't believe in him, that's why I traded him. Otherwise I could have stuck him in AAA and let him build his value back up, then trade him for more later. Duh. The last few years have gone terribly and the talent probably isn't there, not to mention he wouldn't stick with his contacts because he's a dumbass and wouldn't go to Venezuela or wherevs. My guess is he'll continue to suck, strike out on low & outside breaking balls in the dirt and hit .210. Of course I won't be rooting for him because if he does well, I'll look stupid for trading him, just like in your guys' fantasy leagues."Papelbon's Poutine said:
Yeah, maybe you're right Poutine.
BeantownIdaho said:
Every time the Sox sell low, it diminishes their overall talent level now and in the future. Thomas Boswell is still a great baseball writer in this region. He nailed it in analyzing the recent swap of Steven Souza (definitely sold high) for Trea Turner:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/washington-nationals-show-a-patience-other-teams-would-do-well-to-follow/2014/12/19/2a2085c4-8703-11e4-a702-fa31ff4ae98e_story.html
The consensus is that Turner will ultimately replace Ian Desmond who, like Jordan Zimmerman, will get one more chance to win a world series in Washington before being allowed to leave as a free agent. They also have Zimmerman's replacement in waiting, Lucas Giolito, closing in on the majors:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=giolit000luc
Cherington gets it. Though, in one sense he sold low on Lester nearing free agency, he masterfully transformed 2 months of meaningless performance by Lester in a lost season into a year (and maybe more) of Rick Porcello before he reaches his peak. Likewise, with a deeper farm system than the Nationals, rather than having a single egg in his staggered ace replacement basket, Cherington has Owens, Rodriguez, Johnson and maybe Ball as promising lefties with ace upside (though there is never a guarantee that even the best prospects will succeed in the majors).
DLR and Webster were also sold low but for a cost controlled established major league lefty, Miley, still in his prime and younger than the now gone Lester. Likewise, Middlebrooks was sold low but for a scarce resource, a decent backup major league catcher with the ability to buffer the predictably inconsistent transition of Vazquez and Swihart into quality major league catchers. If they acquired Hanigan only to make Swihart available in a trade for an expensive older ace like Hamels, this will be a huge mistake. Some prospects aren't sold high or low. They must be patiently nurtured until they perform as an organization expects.
The Nationals have a thinner margin for error than the Sox in terms of their talent development. Likewise, they have a smaller margin of error financially:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2014/12/20/the-washington-nationals-are-in-good-shape-for-the-future/
Despite everyone's clamor for immediate acquisition of an ace, the Sox don't want to get so far over the luxury tax too early this season that they can't get back under it, as planned, next season. If the Sox contend as we hope, renting an ace for the stretch run from a down team (Cueto from the Reds will more likely be available than will Zimmerman with the Nats) makes sense. They can't overpay for such a rental and must be prepared to accept the draft pick and the payroll relief if they can't retain such an ace.
The best case scenario will be for one of the Sox pitching prospects to develop into their next ace. The next best scenario will be selling high on an asset to acquire another ace prospect like Syndergaard. This is what Rizzo did so well with Souza for Turner (a future stud SS). The third best way is the equivalent of an NBA sign and trade to get an established ace by trade. This is what they did with Pedro, what they probably hope to do with Porcello and might be pressured to do for already contracted Hamels (but only if the trade doesn't include their untouchable young players and prospects). The last resort will be to sign an ace only during their prime years of production (not during their decline). Zimmerman or Cueto might be possible next winter.
You can't always sell high and, because of the pressure in the Red Sox market, must often sell low. Cherington understands this and does as well as he can when he must turn those lemons into lemonade.
The Boomer said:
I don't believe the Sox could make a Qualifying Offer to an in-season rental and wouldn't be able to obtain a draft pick. I could be reading this wrong.
M
MentalDisabldLst
Guest
BeantownIdaho said:
Except that you cited Ben's quote on the matter, regarding a departed player, as evidence of Ben's true feelings on the matter. You're "suppose" to understand what things mean when you type them:
BeantownIdaho said:
Poutine is correct, there are a wide range of opinions BC might have of Middlebrooks - including that he still thinks the guy has all-star potential in him, but he just really needed a competent backup catcher and could trade from a position (3B) of strength and depth. But Cherington's statement is not evidence of anything he believes. He would say more or less what he said regardless of what he actually believes.
edit: added context in quoted snippet
I guess my main point is that the Padres could come away huge winners in this trade if WMB transforms himself into the player he was purported to be coming through the Sox system in 2011-2012. He's only 26, and he might have his best baseball ahead of him. Even if he plays poorly, the chances that he COULD end up worth something significant colors my perception of the deal: need filling, low upside return for the Red Sox, possible big win for San Diego-though I'll state again that the chances WMB emerges to be a plus asset at 3b are small-they are there.
As the 2015 Red Sox are currently constituted, Middlebrooks would have been number five on my depth chart for third base, behind Sandoval, Holt, Ramirez and Cecchini. And if all four of those guys got hurt putting Bogaerts at third and playing Marrero at short might have been my next choice. That they were able to trade Middlebrooks for a player who will be on the 25-man roster is terrific.jasvlm said:
I understand completely what I typed...here it is again in case you missed it: "Apparently BC disagrees with you." Then I used the quote from Ben that you mentioned. Tell me again that what I typed "proves nothing" when what I proved was that BC disagreed and I quoted him disagreeing. The made up scenarios that some are making here about Ben's "real" intentions do not trump his actual quote. Unless of course you have mind control over Ben and know his thoughts as opposed to what he actually said out loud. He could have worded it many other ways.MentalDisabldLst said:
The Boomer said:
As we saw with the Carl Crawford experience, you may think the Sox are selling low, but there is a strong possibility in a few months that WMB's stock will be even lower.
Is this the kind of story that ends with Hanigan looking stunned on the infield, while family and teammates and cameras teem about him, wondering how he came to win the World Series with his boyhood crush?E5 Yaz said:
This is an excellent point that often gets lost. Sometimes it's worth losing a trade because the piece obtained is the exact piece that's needed for the roster and the budget.Rasputin said:
Well put. Hanigan is a guy who is out of his mind excited to be with this team. He will be a key piece at catcher a key piece in the locker and probably a fan favorite who understand his roots in New England. He "gets it" as compared to last years catcher; some guy named AJ. Looking forward to his enthusiasm.67WasBest said:
This is exactly what we thought the issue was:
Papelbon's Poutine To go a little further, I don't have mind control over Ben but I do have a contact at NESN. And while they don't know everything over there, they catch plenty of wind on what's going on. The entire FO has been fed up with him for a while now. The attitude when he first came up was the start. The LASIK thing was next. The contact lens thing made it worse. And then his refusal to play winter ball was the nail in the coffin. FTR, his refusal to play winter ball was not about his health. It was about spending time with Jenny. (They refer to him as Willy Dell around the office). He told the FO he was engaged, wanted to spend time with her in the offseason and since they fired her and she was now doing football, he wanted to travel with her. So he didn't want to go to winter ball. They have literally no faith in his commitment to the game and as such, they entered into the offseason looking to move him for anything remotely able to contribute to the team next year. I have no doubt they are extremely happy with this trade.
And this is some of the attitude/arrogance we are accustomed to from Will:
“I know I’m a good player. When I’m healthy — no excuses — but when I’m healthy, I know the type of player I am. I know the impact I can make in the game,” said Middlebrooks. “That’s not cockiness. I just know the player I am. I know the tools I have. I know what I can do. I’ve done it. That adds to the frustration when things aren’t going well, because I know the player I am. It’s hard not to be able to show it.”
Like Tom Brady said this week, one of his Dad's favorite sayings is: Better Done is better than Better Said. Brooks has't accomplished much to be blowing his own horn to that extent.
Papelbon's Poutine To go a little further, I don't have mind control over Ben but I do have a contact at NESN. And while they don't know everything over there, they catch plenty of wind on what's going on. The entire FO has been fed up with him for a while now. The attitude when he first came up was the start. The LASIK thing was next. The contact lens thing made it worse. And then his refusal to play winter ball was the nail in the coffin. FTR, his refusal to play winter ball was not about his health. It was about spending time with Jenny. (They refer to him as Willy Dell around the office). He told the FO he was engaged, wanted to spend time with her in the offseason and since they fired her and she was now doing football, he wanted to travel with her. So he didn't want to go to winter ball. They have literally no faith in his commitment to the game and as such, they entered into the offseason looking to move him for anything remotely able to contribute to the team next year. I have no doubt they are extremely happy with this trade.
And this is some of the attitude/arrogance we are accustomed to from Will:
“I know I’m a good player. When I’m healthy — no excuses — but when I’m healthy, I know the type of player I am. I know the impact I can make in the game,” said Middlebrooks. “That’s not cockiness. I just know the player I am. I know the tools I have. I know what I can do. I’ve done it. That adds to the frustration when things aren’t going well, because I know the player I am. It’s hard not to be able to show it.”
Like Tom Brady said this week, one of his Dad's favorite sayings is: Better Done is better than Better Said. Brooks has't accomplished much to be blowing his own horn to that extent.
M
MentalDisabldLst
Guest
Rasputin said:
Granting your point, you really think the Red Sox lost this trade? Given the probability distribution of WMB's future, I think it a near-certainty that the worst case scenario is a win for us and a push for the Padres, and the most likely scenario is a win-win for both sides. I think the trade made the 2015 and 2016 Red Sox better, given our 3B depth, and how well it solves our need for a backup catcher. Where's the conflict here?
It seems to me there's rarely a scenario where you "win the trade" but don't net-improve your ballclub. Maybe if you trade a declining all-star for some truly A-list prospects, you'll suffer in the current year, but the longer-term trade outcome is still very positive for your club. I'm just not sure what you mean by that statement.
I don't think "GMs get paid to win ballgames not trades" necessarily suggests that the Red Sox lost the trade. I just take it to mean that the idea of "winning trades" is probably more of a fan thing than something GM's have in their heads while negotiating. A lot of the times, as you point out, the trade makes sense for both clubs and it's good for a GM to be involved in trades where both teams win, like the Hanley and Anibal for Beckett and Lowell trade. Did the Red Sox lose that trade long term? Does it matter? Both teams got what they were looking for out of it. Had the Red Sox been intent on "winning" that trade, we may not have seen it happen. That doesn't mean they lost it, though. The two just aren't that intrinsically tied.
Papelbon's Poutine "To go a little further, I don't have mind control over Ben but I do have a contact at NESN. And while they don't know everything over there, they catch plenty of wind on what's going on. The entire FO has been fed up with him for a while now. The attitude when he first came up was the start. The LASIK thing was next. The contact lens thing made it worse. And then his refusal to play winter ball was the nail in the coffin. FTR, his refusal to play winter ball was not about his health. It was about spending time with Jenny. (They refer to him as Willy Dell around the office). He told the FO he was engaged, wanted to spend time with her in the offseason and since they fired her and she was now doing football, he wanted to travel with her. So he didn't want to go to winter ball. They have literally no faith in his commitment to the game and as such, they entered into the offseason looking to move him for anything remotely able to contribute to the team next year. I have no doubt they are extremely happy with this trade"
This is telling information, and I appreciate you fleshing out the situation. In every single case, we have less information at our disposal to judge decisions on than the front office. If the FO truly questions WMB commitment to being the best player he can be, it is entirely possible that they view his potential upside as being even less than the fans on this board do. That certainly impacts the valuation they would make as to what they could get for him in a deal. As in any situation, time will tell how accurate their judgement was, but since trades must be assessed based on the circumstances present at the time of the deal, this sheds more light on how they may have viewed things.
I still hope WMB wakes up and realizes that he's seen in this light, and perhaps that shakes him into the proper mindset to pursue his career like a professional.
This is telling information, and I appreciate you fleshing out the situation. In every single case, we have less information at our disposal to judge decisions on than the front office. If the FO truly questions WMB commitment to being the best player he can be, it is entirely possible that they view his potential upside as being even less than the fans on this board do. That certainly impacts the valuation they would make as to what they could get for him in a deal. As in any situation, time will tell how accurate their judgement was, but since trades must be assessed based on the circumstances present at the time of the deal, this sheds more light on how they may have viewed things.
I still hope WMB wakes up and realizes that he's seen in this light, and perhaps that shakes him into the proper mindset to pursue his career like a professional.
I took it to mean that even if San Diego "wins" the trade in the sense that Middlebrooks has a few productive years for them as a starter whileMentalDisabldLst said:
Hanigan is only a serviceable backup for Boston, the Red Sox are a better team with Hanigan than they are with Middlebrooks. Ras was responding to a poster who was less enthusiastic about the
trade as Boston is giving up Middlebrooks' upside in order to fill a relatively small hole.
I've wanted Hanigan for the past couple seasons. As Pumpsie said up thread it is a win to acquire an actual useful piece for the 2015 Sox for a guy with zero value to us. I had felt we held on to WMB a year too long which exhausted what little trade value he had but this is a nice return.Mugsys Jock said:
Very good pointRasputin said:
I'll take it a step further. Its probably a 'good' thing for the Sox if Middlebrooks plays well.
We want the Red Sox minor league development program to have as good as a reputation as possible. Similar to the Dodgers reputation for developing young pitching.
Guys like David Murphy, Moss, Reddick, Pimental, Federowicz, Strickland were all blocked/stalled Sox prospects that turned into good to useful players.
Hopefully the rest of baseball looks at the Sox minors as place to find 'hidden gems', and will offer us useful Major League pieces to unearth them.
eh the guy has made several hundreds of thousands of dollars and wants to travel and spend some time with his beautiful new wife. I really am not the kind of guy that is gonna jump down his throat for that. it sucks for the red sox but it is probably best for everyone involved for WMB to move on. Im not gonna fault him for wanting to spend time with his wife. the travel schedule these guys have has to be brutal on a relationship.
Aren't these "hardships" part of being a professional baseball player, particularly one playing so poorly, even when healthy?sean1562 said:
MuzzyField said:
well he doesnt have to go to winter ball in Venezuela. so he didnt. i dont blame him. I wouldnt either months after my wedding. he gets paid lots of money but he still has a right to a personal life. Calling him Willy Dell seems pretty demeaning and childish. Probably for the best we traded him but I dont wish him any ill will. I understand why he wouldnt want to go to winter ball
MuzzyField said:
Beyond the purely contractual, I think there's got to be some give and take in any business relationship. The Sox trotted an injured WMB out onto the field in 2014 to try to help out. He went out there and didn't bitch about it or insist he be put on the DL. Apparently, his hand never healed up. So that's taking one for the team.
Then the Sox wanted him to voluntarily play winter ball, which WMB did not have to do at all. Whether or not he wanted to peel grapes for his new wife on some island or whether he wanted his hand to heal up fully isn't really the point. But for those who value baseball above all else, the argument that he wanted rest before restring his body with baseball activities holds water. Certainly enough to give him the benefit of the doubt.
However, does anyone think that WMB showing up in winter ball would have stopped the Sox from going out and getting Sandoval? It seems like the Sox wanted him to get his trade value up and he declined. It's not some great moral failing on his part.
and he will probably have a couple million dollars, a successful, attractive wife, and time to go back to university to get a degree. Not agreeing with the Boston FO's plan for your life isnt a crime. Its not like him not going to winter ball this offseason is going to completely destroy his career. He made a choice, he has his own priorities, and I wish him all the best. I am not going to judge him for his choices godspeed and I hope he can turn it around in a less stressful market than Boston.JimD said:
Rovin Romine said:
Was he really that injured upon his return? The team didn't need him to rush back, they singed Drew to pretty much assure his return to Boston was going to include extended time at Pawtucket.
Winter ball was probably nothing more than the Sox looking to showcase WMB's to be dealt. Thanks to his various ailments and inabilities you need a shovel to access his 2014 performance level.
I do believe his ship had already sailed, as far as the Red Sox were concerned, and the team was all about getting a new third baseman.
sean1562 said:
He's a potential 25-30 HR impact bat in an era of limited power - he could potentially earn $50 million or more if he works at his craft. But hey, if he wants to collect his rewards now that's he's made a million or so, that's his business.
I'm guessing with all the rumors about Panda swirling from the moment the World Series ended, he probably saw the writing on the wall and came to the conclusion that his future was not with the Red Sox. If that's the case, I can understand the reluctance on his part to go play winter ball at their request.
I get where your coming from Snod, but honestly the guy's pretty much been a bucket of shit thus far in his MLB career. I think his refusal to play winter ball is a huge statement about his commitment to his own future. I mean really, how much more motivation does the guy need? Go play winter ball, turn some heads, prove the Sox wrong, put yourself on a path to secure yourself financially. At the end of the day, win lose or draw you can say you gave it your all.
At the very least, the risk of injuring yourself while playing winter ball for a team you very likely won't be breaking camp with has to be a fairly sizable check in the "con" column.
Snodgrass'Muff said:
I wouldn't really think so. Who ever thinks they're going to get injured? I mean, they have to think about it, but if you're betting on whether you can play well or get hurt, you're going to play well most of the time, and I would imagine almost every ballplayer overestimates their chances of playing well and discounts their chances of failure in any way.
Snodgrass'Muff said:
The 'pro' side is that he would get an opportunity to rebuild his value, either to the Boston Red Sox or a trading partner. He was ticketed for a year in Pawtucket at the time. That is far from the ideal for a 26-year-old player coming off his two worst seasons since A ball. I don't see the front office wanting him to go to winter ball as some sort of punishment - he needs to improve his pitch recognition skills if he wants to stick in MLB.