Thanks for adding this -- I should have been clearer in my initial post that the "continued development" piece is what I meant when it came to Bello/Houck/Pivetta/Crawford. And RR hit exactly what I was getting at.
And we'll never know the answer, but this is the crux of the argument:
I just agree that saying Bloom & co were "on their way" to transforming the organization's pitching feels too generous. We'll never know, of course, but the results speak for themselves. Of course, it's crazy early and a tiny sample to evaluate the front office, but...
2020 Red Sox ERA: 28th in MLB (5.52)
2021 Red Sox ERA: 15th in MLB (4.26)
2022 Red Sox ERA: 25th in MLB (4.53)
2023 Red Sox ERA: 21st in MLB (4.52)
2024 Red Sox ERA:
1st in MLB (
2.72)
Again, even if it's a tiny sample, a jump that significant is hard to ignore. And as for "not discounting" the importance of pitch selection changes... I mean, it seems clear that Breslow, Bailey, and Willard (h/t
@nighthob) have decided to organizationally direct starters to throw less fastballs. Bloom & co had something like 4 seasons to do whatever they wanted organizationally, and to borrow an expression from football: they were what their ERA said they were.
Edit:
@Rovin Romine, jinx.
Speaking of scrap heap veteran starters, I've also been wondering how much of a role to consider for these additional two factors:
1) The veteran free agent SPs signings didn't pan out in 2023: Corey Kluber was a disaster (7.04 ERA), and while Paxton was cromulent (4.50, 102 ERA+) that's all he was. Giolito obviously didn't work out this season, and we'll never know how he would have pitched this year, but at a minimum staying away from the Kluber/Paxton types kept those rotation spots open for better performance from Houck/Whitlock/Crawford.
2) The bullpen isn't clogged with a series of back-end, journeyman types getting shelled. I picked an unfair sample, but look at some of the guys who pitched for the Red Sox in 2023, none of whom (as far as I can tell) have thrown a single pitch in the Majors in 2024 or are still with the organization: Bleier, Llovera, Ort, Barraclough, Jake Faria, Justin Garza. That's (by my count) 111 IP giving up 83 ER (an ERA ~6.72). Again, this is an intentionally unfair, unrepresentative sample of the worst results, but my point is that the Red Sox were signing, promoting, and pitching guys throughout the season who probably didn't belong in the Majors. Maybe you could do that for every team, and maybe Breslow & co will end up with a similar group in 2024, but the combination of their poor performance and all of them washing out of the Majors after last year stood out to me.