TheoShmeo said:
What's your basis for saying that? I don't have a crystal ball but I assume that the Sox are trying to reel in someone of the 1/2 ilk. I understand that Ben has said you don't need an ace (and that there are not many of them), but the Sox have assets to trade and with guys like Cueto, Zimmerman and Hamels potentially available, I would think that they would try. They also could just use dollars on Shields. None of this precludes adding Miley and someone like Masterson (Liriano has been re-signed by the Pirates), also.
Topping out at 6/$135M for Lester. That is pretty much the same AAV as Cole Hamels, so if you view fair market value for Lester, a good comp to Hamels, as $22M you sure aren't giving up a Betts/Swihart/Owens to pay the exact same money to Hamels. It also is not even in the ballpark of what Scherzer will get, and if that is the value they put on Lester I'd imagine an offer to Shields tops out at 4/$80M, which some team is almost definitely going to top in a market where Lester gets 6/$150M with a vesting 7th. It says a lot that Lester had such a hard time picking when the gap was that large between the Sox and Cubs, but it says even more that the Sox didn't bridge the gap enough to land him.
The recent trends in MLB suggest that pitching is actually becoming less valuable as umpires call low strikes more freely and power declines (maybe from PEDs, maybe not). The AL East in particular is no longer the pitching meat grinder it used to be. The Jays added a nice piece in Donaldson to be sure, but Baltimore meanwhile has lost both Cruz and Markakis, really weakening the front end of their lineup. To me all signs point to the Red Sox believing we're either entering a prolonged period of pitching > offense (as opposed to the 90's and 00's where offense dominated pitching) and therefore aren't willing to pay market rates when they can get 90% of the production for less, or they believe that we're in a brief bubble, the league will correct itself and the cost of pitching will (relative to league-wide inflation) come down.
Consider the pitchers they've acquired in the last few months. Joe Kelly, 26, ground ball pitcher, several years of control remaining, already a productive ML starter, has the raw stuff to be better. Wade Miley, 28, ground ball pitcher, several years of control remaining, laready a productive ML starter, has peripherals that suggest if he puts his best rate stats (GB%, K/9, BB/9, BABIP) together in one season he'll look damn good. Notice how much of each description matches? They also supposedly really like Tyson Ross. Another guy who meets all these same criteria.
So what is it about mid-20's proven starters with good GB rates and pre-FA control that have the Sox so enamored? The GB rate probably has a lot to do with how small the parks in the AL East tend to be. Suppressing HRs in any park is beneficial, suppressing fly balls to left and left center in Fenway is especially beneficial. There is also well below league average foul territory in Fenway, so there are few "free" outs to be had for fly ball pitchers as opposed to what other clubs in other parks benefit from. It makes sense why they're hunting out this particular tool.
Pitchers in their mid-20's also tend to be players who have gotten through the highest risk period for catastrophic injury, while still having the least threat of age related decline. I don't have any numbers but I'd also be willing to bet the Sox have data suggesting that they're the most likely to take the next step as a pitcher and show improvement from the 3-5 ranks to a legitimate #1/#2 type.
Lastly, control. The Sox clearly don't feel comfortable with market rates for front end pitching. I'm pretty sure no GM ever has been comfortable with market rates for mid to back of the rotation pitching. So Cherington is buying a lot of time here with guys like Kelly and Miley. Three years to be exact (I believe that is what both have until FA). If the market doesn't offer up more palatable rates and the farm fails to produce worthwhile cost controlled arms the Sox will either need to find a new round of mid-20's guys or suck it up and pay market rates, but this at least lets them see how the market behaves.
And who knows, given the glut of #1/#2 types hitting next year's FA class and the unwillingness/inability of teams to extend most of those guys to date we might just see the market correct itself as soon as next winter. A team that gives Shields 5/$125M might really be kicking themselves when Samardzija takes the same deal next year in a market with at least as many headliners as this year and a hell of a lot more by way of #2 types.
My personal gut reaction to this deal is that the Sox are trading two fifty cent pieces and a dime for one dollar, which makes some sense as the club has a glut of mL pitching that needs to prove itself at the ML level and not enough proven ML pitching. I'd much rather have traded any two of the on-the-verge RH prospects than RDLR or Webster, but then I also can see why it had to be them because Barnes, Ranaudo, and Escobar have more questions than the already questionable Ruby and Webster.
I think Ranaudo and Escobar are both destined for the bullpen while Barnes gets another season or two to show the maturation to have a real chance at being a ML starter before he experiences the same fate. I can't feel too broken up about losing Ruby or Webster when I'm pretty sure Steven Wright could out-produce either one of them for the next 2-3 years while they figure out how to actually pitch.