Sox acquire Wade Miley for De La Rosa, Webster, and minor leaguer

[MentalDisabldLst]

So does the Miley trade represent a bold new direction where the Sox will hang their hats on SIERA, FIP, and XFIP? If this data supports Miley as a clear #3 or even a #2, why didn't the Dbacks get more? With three years of control, why wasn't he more coveted?

 
Cherington and co were probably asking themselves those same questions as they rushed to sign the trade paperwork.
 
You can't just assume there's some hidden catch that will make Miley a lemon - don't fall into the reactive devaluation fallacy.  I'm not saying you're doing this, but we should avoid any line of reasoning that borders on thinking that a given offer of a player must be less valuable than we think it is, simply because the other side - with whom we're competing - is willing to offer it.  Sometimes, you just win a trade.

 

[smastroyin]

I just want to make the point that SIERA, FIP, and xFIP are not three separate measures.  They are three separate ways of looking at the same component data.
 
I'm not saying it makes the analysis invalid, but these are not three independent statistics - especially FIP and xFIP which are exactly the same other than a conversion for HR/FB rate which is not necessarily any more predictive than straight FIP.
 
I think Savin knows this, I'm afraid that other people do not and therefore over-interpret the data.

 

[Plympton91]

 
No it isn't. It very very much isn't. The Sox as an organization cannot think of one season to the exclusion of others. The 2016 season isn't less important than the 2015 season just because it's further away.

Uh, yeah, it is. That's a fundamental theory of sociology, finance, and economics. How much you discount the future is a personal preference, but the correct number is not zero (unless you think you're immortal, and even then, it's not 0).

 

[phenweigh]

I just want to make the point that SIERA, FIP, and xFIP are not three separate measures.  They are three separate ways of looking at the same component data.
 
I'm not saying it makes the analysis invalid, but these are not three independent statistics - especially FIP and xFIP which are exactly the same other than a conversion for HR/FB rate which is not necessarily any more predictive than straight FIP.
 
I think Savin knows this, I'm afraid that other people do not and therefore over-interpret the data.

It's a tricky academic exercise to take real world data which has context, and convert it to a single context neutral value.  So long as the exercise was done with some reasonable process using data that is generally considered to have importance, I fail to see the importance of SIERA, FIP, and xFIP looking at the same component data, or if there was some difference in what component data was used as input.  In other words, there are different reasonable (and imperfect) ways to calculate context neutral measures, so when they are in general agreement that adds weight to their conclusion.  But sure, they still are theoretical numbers that are not to be taken as perfect truth. 

 

[Just a bit outside]

 
[SIZE=10.5pt]Expanding on the HR/9 rate, for a comp I looked at Derek Lowe in the Red Sox uniform.  To me, Derek seems like a good comp if Savin’s post pans out and Wade becomes a very good but not ace type of pitcher.  So I calculated Derek’s HR/9 rate in a Red Sox uniform and got 0.60.  For his career Derek’s HR/9 rate is 0.7 per baseball-reference.com.  Wade’s HR/9 rate is 0.9 per baseball-reference.com.  Am I right that 0.9 is a warning sign, is Lowe too high a standard for comparison, or is there more to Wade Miley than a GB specialist?  [/SIZE]

The hope for Miley is that his HR/9 will drop being out of Arizona.  For his career he is 1.13 per 9 at Chase and .69 per 9 on the road.  The change to Fenway should reduce those numbers.  Maybe not all the way to .69 as he pitched in large stadiums on the road in the NL West but if he can get it down to .8 per 9 he should be in good shape.

 

[theapportioner]

To theapportioner: what about Miley's record to date justifies assigning him a 20% likelihood of "reliever or bust"? Do 28-year-olds with an established multi-year track record of average-or-better performance as starters really wind up banished to the pen or washed out of the majors within the next three years 1 out of 5 times? (Not saying it's impossible, just wondering where you got that number from.)

 
It's a guesstimate based on the inherent risk of pitchers getting seriously injured or otherwise completely losing it. The numbers are obviously made up, but not totally from a vacuum -- it's based on the stats from all three pitchers, plus what I've seen from RDLR and Webster. One can always argue these probability estimates and so on, but you can also do a sensitivity analysis to see what probability performance threshold would be needed to have it be of equal value to the alternative.

 

[Alcohol&Overcalls]

The hope for Miley is that his HR/9 will drop being out of Arizona.  For his career he is 1.13 per 9 at Chase and .69 per 9 on the road.  The change to Fenway should reduce those numbers.  Maybe not all the way to .69 as he pitched in large stadiums on the road in the NL West but if he can get it down to .8 per 9 he should be in good shape.

 
... plus 0.7 is pretty damn good (Clemens for his career was exactly the same) - league average is usually around 1. 

 

[theapportioner]

 
Absolutely, which is why simply dividing by the # of roster spots isn't at all what you would do*.  That's why it needs to come within the context of your building to an optimal 25 (and 40).  If we're going to be realistic about the projection uncertainty of young pitchers, the Sox are/were carrying a glut of guys who are all currently hovering around a 4th-7th starter median.  What they didn't/don't have is enough arms that reliably projected to contribute at the 1-3 or 2-4 levels.  Using your basic method, in essence what you need to be asking is whether the WAR is more or less efficiently allocated across the 25-man than it was before.   
 
 
*Not all good posts need math, but good posts that do use math are hard, not simple.

 
One can always develop more complex decision analytic frameworks, but I elected to keep it simple. One can argue why it isn't completely valid to look at a trade in isolation like this, but we do it all the time in a qualitative manner.

 

[phenweigh]

 
... plus 0.7 is pretty damn good (Clemens for his career was exactly the same) - league average is usually around 1. 

Clemens wasn't a GB specialist.  I don't know what a reasonable expectation is for HR/9 is for a GB specialist.  I just have an intuitive sense (that may be off) that a GB specialist with a high HR rate is a warning sign.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Clemens wasn't a GB specialist.  I don't know what a reasonable expectation is for HR/9 is for a GB specialist.  I just have an intuitive sense (that may be off) that a GB specialist with a high HR rate is a warning sign.

 
Or speaks to the inherent instability of HR rates and the fact that he was pitching in Arizona for half of his starts.

 

[Rovin Romine]

 
Or speaks to the inherent instability of HR rates and the fact that he was pitching in Arizona for half of his starts.

 
Miley had three hundred and eighty (ish) at bats both in AZ and on the road for 2014.  He gave up 18 HR in AZ and 5 on the road. 

 

[Cellar-Door]

 
Or speaks to the inherent instability of HR rates and the fact that he was pitching in Arizona for half of his starts.

His HR splits are kind of ridiculous. 17 HR in 15 Home starts. (plus 1 HR in his "home" game in Sydney).
5 HR on the road:
1 HR in 1 game at Wrigley
Same in US Cell and Dodger Stadium
2 HR in 1 game at Minute Maid
 
No home runs in the remainder of his starts:
2 at Petco, AT&T,Coors 1 each at: Turner, Great American, Marlins, Citizens, PNC, Busch, Natstown.
 
So his Road numbers aren't totally playing big parks.

 

[Just a bit outside]

If you take Scott Van Slyke out of the equation his HR rate falls to .85 per 9.  Just thought is was unusual that Van Slyke had 4 homers against him last year.

 

[chrisfont9]

Fangraphs digs a little deeper into Miley's abilities.
 

 
As the years have gone on, Miley has pitched more and more like it feels a pitcher with his stuff should. He’s done a better job of pounding lefties low-and-away and righties low-and-inside. Gone are the elevated pitches and those left out over the plate. There’s also a change in Miley’s pitch mix that coincides with his shift in approach, and it’s one that makes sense, given the image above.

• 2012: 72.2% fastballs, 14.2% sliders
• 2013: 68.8% fastballs, 16.5% sliders
• 2014: 61.2% fastballs, 25.8% sliders

Miley has thrown less and less of his mediocre fastball and more and more of his slider that he can bury down in the zone. Hitters are chasing, and it’s resulting in more whiffs. The whiffs, of course, lead to strikeouts, and we like strikeouts.

 
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wade-miley-who-is-better-than-you-think/

 

[phenweigh]

 
Or speaks to the inherent instability of HR rates and the fact that he was pitching in Arizona for half of his starts.

Well, I used his career rate.  I can't do better than that.  Park factors are rather instable as well.  Looking at park factors for home runs the last three years (esentially coinciding with Miley's career) Chase field ranked 7, 16, and 6.  Home run friendly, but not crazily so.  Wade's 2014 extreme HR splits could be explained by SSS variability as much as by park factor.
 
As a point of comparison over the same three seasons, Fenway ranked 27, 23, and 10.  So Boston should help him. 

 

[Carmen Fanzone]

Those disappointed in losing RDLR and Webster should avoid the temptation to come back here with "I told you so" if either/both succeed in Arizona. They would not be the first pitchers rescued by Dave Duncan and assisted in finding success they'd have never found elsewhere (like, maybe, Boston). Also, Webster may thrive in a no-pressure, no-media market like Phoenix in a way he couldn't here, as the previous poster who called him a pants-shitter characterized it.
 
This could turn out to be a deal that works well for both sides.

 

[smastroyin]

It's a tricky academic exercise to take real world data which has context, and convert it to a single context neutral value.  So long as the exercise was done with some reasonable process using data that is generally considered to have importance, I fail to see the importance of SIERA, FIP, and xFIP looking at the same component data, or if there was some difference in what component data was used as input.  In other words, there are different reasonable (and imperfect) ways to calculate context neutral measures, so when they are in general agreement that adds weight to their conclusion.  But sure, they still are theoretical numbers that are not to be taken as perfect truth. 

 
My point is not about the value of each measure.  My point is in ascribing extra value to performing well in several of them, because they are largely measuring the same thing.

 

[joe dokes]

Those disappointed in losing RDLR and Webster should avoid the temptation to come back here with "I told you so" if either/both succeed in Arizona. They would not be the first pitchers rescued by Dave Duncan and assisted in finding success they'd have never found elsewhere (like, maybe, Boston). Also, Webster may thrive in a no-pressure, no-media market like Phoenix in a way he couldn't here, as the previous poster who called him a pants-shitter characterized it.
 
This could turn out to be a deal that works well for both sides.

 
That's the whole point of making a deal. "Here, I'm gonna give you some guys in trades who are likely to suck" is a very short-sighted approach. And Hoping they suck so that you look good is just being as asshole. (hoping they suck when you play them, or if you're fighting in a playoff race is ok, or if they play for the Yankees).
 
My guess is that Cherington's *only* concern is Miley's success.  He would be thrilled if Webster and deLaRosa did well.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
My point is not about the value of each measure.  My point is in ascribing extra value to performing well in several of them, because they are largely measuring the same thing.

 
It's a good point. I think I was using all three to compensate for the fact that while they may each be measuring essentially the same thing, there is in fact considerable variance between them on a year-to-year basis--i.e., a guy can have a significantly higher FIP than xFIP, or a higher SIERA than FIP, in any given year. Using all three and saying "if X wasn't better than Y in at least two of them, then he probably wasn't better than Y" is an attempt to hedge against that.

 

[EricFeczko]

One thing to note about allen Webster and RLDR is their age. Many on this board (including myself) regard them as prospects with upside. However, maybe we should re-examine this notion. Webster will be 25 starting in 2015, RLDR will be 26. Below are aging curves for starting pitchers:
View attachment 701
 
While this is obviously not true with all pitchers, the inflection point at which consensus performance starts to degrade is around the 27-28 yr old mark. In other words, if RLDR or Webster don't start demonstrating better performances over the next year or two, their true talent level may start to degrade. In particular, their velocity may be dropping soon, which is one of the reasons why their stuff should be so filthy.

Obviously there are pitchers for which the exception proves the rule (see: Cliff Lee), however, I don't think one would want to count on RLDR or Allen Webster being an exception right now.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

An interesting tidbit about Miley's HR rate -- he had a huge reverse platoon split in HR/FB last year, 27.8% to 12.2%, but this was perfectly offset by a corresponding FB% split (32% vs. R, 13.8% vs. L), so that his HR/9 split was nonexistent (1.02/1.03). This is reflected in a huge FIP/xFIP gap vs. LHH: 4.11 and 3.14, respectively. His FIP vs. RHH was higher than the xFIP, but by a much more reasonable margin (3.94 to 3.61).
 
I think the implication for Fenway should be that he will be more effective vs. LHH (since the HR/FB to LHH will presumably be lower there). Pitching to RHH, the HR/FB probably won't go up, but he might end up allowing a lot of doubles. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

 

 

[EricFeczko]

 

I'm praying that opposing fly-ball distance is more due to random chance than skill...
praying...

 

[thehitcat]

So my understanding is that this is still not done correct?  They still haven't agreed to the last ml player from the Sox?

 

[67WasBest]

So my understanding is that this is still not done correct?  They still haven't agreed to the last ml player from the Sox?

That's being reported but there was another report this wouldn't be final until Friday, so it could all be doublespeak to buy time.

 

[grimshaw]

FWIW, Speier was just on the WEEI hot stove show and talked about how some in management didn't think De La Rosa was routine oriented or had the right mindset to be a starter and viewed him as a bullpen guy.  Also mentioned issues about not having a swing and miss fastball in that role.
 
He also didn't see it very likely (not impossible) for them to flip one or two of the current rotation guys to upgrade for an ace.

 

[E5 Yaz]

FWIW, Speier was just on the WEEI hot stove show and talked about how some in management didn't think De La Rosa was routine oriented or had the right mindset to be a starter and viewed him as a bullpen guy.  Also mentioned issues about not having a swing and miss fastball.

 
Did he mention that Webster was squirrely?

 

[grimshaw]

 
Did he mention that Webster was squirrely?

Ha no. Though he thought Webster had lost a quite a bit of stuff from last year even though the command improved a little.  That part was just his opinion.

 

[arzjake]

People are under rating Allen Webster. His ml numbers are a lot better than Miley's ever were. 

 
How does that translate to a Rotational starter in the Majors? It doesn't.
Scouts will tell you AWebsters fastball doesn't have movement and that includes Eckersly. The walk rate is way to high. The Sox have enough pitching depth to offset a "project pitcher"..

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 

 
Remember, the Wall both giveth and taketh away. At least a few of those LF shots might end up as doubles or long singles in Fenway.

 

[nvalvo]

Also, some of that distance might be the dry air and altitude. Chase isn't Coors, but it is above 1000 ft and located in a desert. 

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

Yeah, more concerned at how far those home runs to right traveled. I'm pretty sure these are home and road home runs.

 

[soxhop411]

NL scout:
 
 

• The Red Sox need an ace to headline their rebuilt rotation, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe opines.  From that same piece, Cafardo talks to an NL scout who believes the Sox got the better of the Wade Miley trade.  The scout calls the young left-hander an “unrefined [Jon] Lester right now, but he’s on his way to being a No. 2 [starter].  Not sure what the D’Backs are thinking on this one, except to get more bodies.”

 

....

 

[Eddie Jurak]

The Globe also reported today that the Miley deal was being held up by failure to agree on the last prospect.  My opinion of the deal will change if it ends up being a significant one.

 

[phenweigh]

 
It's a good point. I think I was using all three to compensate for the fact that while they may each be measuring essentially the same thing, there is in fact considerable variance between them on a year-to-year basis--i.e., a guy can have a significantly higher FIP than xFIP, or a higher SIERA than FIP, in any given year. Using all three and saying "if X wasn't better than Y in at least two of them, then he probably wasn't better than Y" is an attempt to hedge against that.

It seems to me that the year-to-year variance among the measures tends to refute smastroyin's point, not support it.  We're all well aware they measure the same thing.  But because they do it differently, even though they look at the same component data, there is value in looking at all of them.

 

[Comebacker to Foulke]

Also, some of that distance might be the dry air and altitude. Chase isn't Coors, but it is above 1000 ft and located in a desert. 

 

[Comebacker to Foulke]

Actually, dry air means less distance on fly balls. Counterintuitive, yes.

 

[swingin val]

The Globe also reported today that the Miley deal was being held up by failure to agree on the last prospect.  My opinion of the deal will change if it ends up being a significant one.

I can't imagine that after the principles of the deal are finalized, and the trade is announced (even if just by one team) that the negotiated extra prospect will be of any significance.

 

[Snoop Soxy Dogg]

I can't imagine that after the principles of the deal are finalized, and the trade is announced (even if just by one team) that the negotiated extra prospect will be of any significance.

 
Well, that is largely what they are squabbling about. There's a remote chance this falls through, if the Dbacks insist on a prospect the Red Sox don't want to give up. I do wonder how this type of mix-up happens though, you'd think all of it would be cleared before the deal is agreed upon. 

 

[DJnVa]

I do wonder how this type of mix-up happens though, you'd think all of it would be cleared before the deal is agreed upon. 

 
Well that's just it, it hasn't been agreed upon. We've heard leaks, but nothing official from the teams yet. I have no doubts that they'll be able to figure it out.
 

 

[Corsi]

Bob Nightengale ‏@BNightengale  3s3 seconds ago
#Dbacks Wade Miley will officially be a #Redsox by Sat; Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster,and prospect to #Dbacks as @jonmorosi reported Wed.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Actually, dry air means less distance on fly balls. Counterintuitive, yes.

Yes it is true, but when you post this type of information you need to post a link backing it up. 

 

[ookami7m]

Yes the air in general in Phoenix is dry, but as someone who lived there for 10 years and say numerous games at Chase Field/The BOB - the ball jumps off bats there, not sure if it's the AC pumped air or what but the eyeball test says the ball carries there better than average.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Yes the air in general in Phoenix is dry, but as someone who lived there for 10 years and say numerous games at Chase Field/The BOB - the ball jumps off bats there, not sure if it's the AC pumped air or what but the eyeball test says the ball carries there better than average.

Hot air rises, takes baseballs with it. The opposite is the air at night games in Oakland and SF. It's called marine air, which has more moisture, but it's also cold, which keeps baseballs down, relatively speaking. Chase Field is definitely a rocket launcher field. 

 

[Devizier]

Hot air rises, takes baseballs with it. The opposite is the air at night games in Oakland and SF. It's called marine air, which has more moisture, but it's also cold, which keeps baseballs down, relatively speaking. Chase Field is definitely a rocket launcher field. 

 
I would say Safeco would be the prime example of cold marine air, which keeps it an extreme pitcher's park no matter how much they move the fences in.

 

[barbed wire Bob]

Hot air rises, takes baseballs with it. The opposite is the air at night games in Oakland and SF. It's called marine air, which has more moisture, but it's also cold, which keeps baseballs down, relatively speaking. Chase Field is definitely a rocket launcher field.

Not quite. When air warms it expands which, in turn, reduces the air density. A lower air density means less drag on the ball which means the ball will travel farther.

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/285/

https://www.grc.nasa.gov/www/k-12/baseball/index.html

 

[Vegas Sox Fan]

I think a lot has to due with whether the roof is open or closed. Schilling was famous for making them close the roof when he pitched due to the closed roof suppressing homers. I can't seem to find any splits for that but it would be interesting to see. 

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

Yeah, but dry air also dries out the balls, which makes them lighter and harder, so they fly further off the bat. Hence the Coors field humidor.
 
Less dense air also minimizes the Magnus effect, which hurts the movement on breaking pitches.
 
Home runs or not, Chase Field an extremely difficult park for pitchers to succeed in.

 

[soxhop411]

“@JonHeymanCBS: wade miley to red sox is now a done deal”

 

[Comebacker to Foulke]

Do we know who the MiL guy is the in the deal?