DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:A few observations. The Sox acquired a ground-ball throwing lefty who can throw 200+ innings with generally better than league average stuff for two prospects who have hit their mid-20s and some other minor league body. Only the biggest prospect humper with the longest leash can hate this deal.
Furthermore, those criticizing this deal assume that they know more than the entire Sox organization about De La Rosa and/or Webster. Fine, you are smarter than Ben Cherrington (I mean, who isn't?) but are you smarter than the entire Sox collective? If De La Rosa was really going to become a top of the rotation starter and Miley was such a bottom of a rotation pitcher, do you think that Farrell et al would allow the FO to pull the trigger on this? Because if you do, you are either delusional or need to be hired by a ML front office immediately.
Lastly, its pretty clear brandonchristensen isn't the only poster here who hasn't heard of Wade Miley (good on him for his honesty btw). It would help the discussion if people took a look at his numbers rather than referring to him as a fifth starter or even a bottom of the rotation one. Its not an apt description and doesn't really allow for proper framing of the discussion around this deal.
Well, at the very least history suggests that the Red Sox know more about RDLR and Webster's chances than the Diamondbacks do.GilaMonster said:
That second point is a huge problem. What are we suppose to do? Blindly trust a team to make good decisions because they "know more than us"? We can't have ideas or criticize them because we don't know as much. I bet you the Red Sox have really no idea on what those players will become because otherwise teams would never regret a trade.
I think you're missing Dejesus' point. He means that with regards to Webster and RDLR. They should have enough information at this point to make a relatively accurate assumption on what type of pitchers they will become. We don't have nearly as much info on those two as they do.GilaMonster said:
That second point is a huge problem. What are we suppose to do? Blindly trust a team to make good decisions because they "know more than us"? We can't have ideas or criticize them because we don't know as much. I bet you the Red Sox have really no idea on what those players will become because otherwise teams would never regret a trade.
GilaMonster said:
That second point is a huge problem. What are we suppose to do? Blindly trust a team to make good decisions because they "know more than us"? We can't have ideas or criticize them because we don't know as much. I bet you the Red Sox have really no idea on what those players will become because otherwise teams would never regret a trade.
And giving the kids a rotation spot doesn't mean you don't have an above average rotation.Darnell's Son said:After the investments made towards improving the offense I really hope they don't feel the same as you. An above average rotation with our lineup should be able to win the division for the next two years.
3 years is a pretty long time. Long enough for ERod and Owens to graduate, for Ball to move further along, trades to be made, etc etc. The Sox are making the bet that Miley is a better choice over that time frame than RDLR/Webster/Prospect and I don't think it's unreasonable one to make.Rasputin said:And giving the kids a rotation spot doesn't mean you don't have an above average rotation.
And you really do hope they think long term. Thinking short term is how organizations get totally screwed.
Rasputin said:And you really do hope they think long term. Thinking short term is how organizations get totally screwed.
soxhop411 said:Chris Cotillo @ChrisCotillo 11m11 minutes ago Arizona, US
Sources: #DBacks, #RedSox expected to announce Wade Miley deal on Saturday.
R5 player?
Good point. I think there are probably several different time periods to look at. There's the upcoming/current season, the next three years, the next three to six years, and the next six to ten years.Alcohol&Overcalls said:
Right, but what's the long term? You can get lost in the horizon, too - this move solidifies the rotation for three years, plus anything they can get in a team-friendly arb buyout ... so there's even 4 or 5 possible. I'd guess five years out is about the longest view you can reasonably take with any certainty, isn't it?
Some of the players the D Backs are picking from could be eligible to be drafted, the Backs might have to clear roster space, or the Sox are trying to pull some kind of shenanigans with a draft and trade.E5 Yaz said:
Why would they wait two days for that?
Of course if Chris Cotillo is right and they plan to announce it on Saturday, it sounds like they found middle ground.Hold up is Anderson Espinoza, Javier Gwuerra & Wendell Rijo. BoSox arent budging on those 3. Offering Mars, De Jesus or Basabe. Negotiations ongoing
by Jim McLennan on Dec 11, 2014 | 12:05 AM
We were going to lose a binky in a deal for a number 1 regardless. No team is going to trade a Cueto or a Zimmerman or someone else of 1 caliber without one or more of the guys we really like in the deal.YTF said:Here's the thing about this trade. On it's own it might turn out OK, but with Webster and De La Rosa gone they are no longer part of any deal to land a #1 or #2 starter. Be prepared to lose one or two of your binkies.
Hate to break it to you, but I don't think we're going to land a "#1 or #2 starter". My bet going forward: we get one of Latos, Ross, or Cashner and sign one of Masterson/Liriano/Santana. I would say in roughly that order of probability for each. That ties the FO to no significant dollars long term.YTF said:Here's the thing about this trade. On it's own it might turn out OK, but with Webster and De La Rosa gone they are no longer part of any deal to land a #1 or #2 starter. Be prepared to lose one or two of your binkies.
With RDLR it was about stamina and harnessing his control. Webster it was about control. Both have the stuff to become pretty solid starters in the AL East if things go right. If you look at Webster's numbers in September it seemed like he figured it out. I would take a Allen Webster that's figured it out over Miley in the AL East. While I understand Chase Field graded out as the 2nd best launching pad in baseball in 2014, the teams in that division had pretty bad offenses outside of the Dodgers of course. The Rockies never had a complete lineup due to injuries. Maybe the Sox feel that the organizational philosophy held Miley back such as it did with McCarthy.TheoShmeo said:We were going to lose a binky in a deal for a number 1 regardless. No team is going to trade a Cueto or a Zimmerman or someone else of 1 caliber without one or more of the guys we really like in the deal.
I don't like losing Rubby because he has the potential to be a nice power arm out of the pen. But you have to give to get, and Miley could step right into the rotation in Boston.
I don't think you interpreted my post correctly (or more likely, I didn't write it very well). I'm not saying Webster and Rubby should have turned a corner and become consistent performers. Quite the opposite. I'm saying that we know the reality is that young guys are going to take time, and I hope the FO is willing to be patient.Savin Hillbilly said:
Wait, seriously? You're talking about a guy with less than a full year's worth of ML innings and a guy with less than half a year's worth of innings. They haven't even reached the corner, never mind turning it.
Don't get me wrong, I don't hate this deal, though I wish they could have swapped Ranaudo or Workman in for one of the higher-upside guys they dealt. But talking as if these guys had their chance and blew it is absurd, especially in Webster's case. The expectations around here for instant success from rookies, especially rookie pitchers, are off the scale.
Unless they're moving Rijo, yes, it does. I'm sorry you can't understand that but the entire board literally went through just about every angle with Ras already.Tyrone Biggums said:With RDLR it was about stamina and harnessing his control. Webster it was about control. Both have the stuff to become pretty solid starters in the AL East if things go right. If you look at Webster's numbers in September it seemed like he figured it out. I would take a Allen Webster that's figured it out over Miley in the AL East. While I understand Chase Field graded out as the 2nd best launching pad in baseball in 2014, the teams in that division had pretty bad offenses outside of the Dodgers of course. The Rockies never had a complete lineup due to injuries. Maybe the Sox feel that the organizational philosophy held Miley back such as it did with McCarthy.
Unless they are flipping Miley as part of a deal for Cole Hamels then the deal doesn't make sense. You're trading Webster who Keith Law and Jim Callis both mentioned as having one of the highest ceilings out of the prospects. I especially hate this deal if the rumors are true about the Sox sending Rijo also.
Tyrone Biggums said:With RDLR it was about stamina and harnessing his control. Webster it was about control. Both have the stuff to become pretty solid starters in the AL East if things go right. If you look at Webster's numbers in September it seemed like he figured it out. I would take a Allen Webster that's figured it out over Miley in the AL East. While I understand Chase Field graded out as the 2nd best launching pad in baseball in 2014, the teams in that division had pretty bad offenses outside of the Dodgers of course. The Rockies never had a complete lineup due to injuries. Maybe the Sox feel that the organizational philosophy held Miley back such as it did with McCarthy.
Unless they are flipping Miley as part of a deal for Cole Hamels then the deal doesn't make sense. You're trading Webster who Keith Law and Jim Callis both mentioned as having one of the highest ceilings out of the prospects. I especially hate this deal if the rumors are true about the Sox sending Rijo also.
i think this is misleading because many of those innings were available only because the RS sucked last year. If the RS had been in the playoff hunt, the end of the year starts wouldn't have been available.Workman has 18 career starts and 128.2 major league innings despite never starting the year in the rotation.
Webster has 18 career starts and 89.1 major league innings despite never starting the year in the rotation.
Rubby had 18 starts and 101.2 major league innings last year despite not starting the year in the rotation.
Innings will be there for the kids. I don't understand not liking this trade because you think the kids we still have will never get a shot.
No, my problem is that his FIP and xFIP weren't better than his ERA over the last three years so his situation isn't the same as McCarthy's.gammoseditor said:
The point is that the Diamondbacks home ballpark is the 2nd most hitter friendly park in baseball and the defense is terrible, and we already know FIP and xFIP are better predictors of performance than ERA and that Miley looks pretty good by xFIP and still good by FIP and that McCarthy is an example of a pitcher from the exact ballpark and defense that showed the same trend in FIP/xFIP looking better than results, and his results dramatically improved when moving to the AL East. What part of that do you disagree with? Your problem is we don't have 15 pitchers that have done the same exact thing?
If you're talking about getting more certainty at the back end of the rotation in the short term then I see the point. But again why trade two guys who have lesser floors but higher ceilings for Miley who might very well be longing for the NL West after meeting the AL East. Just doesn't make sense to me. Especially if they end up including Rijo.MakMan44 said:Unless they're moving Rijo, yes, it does. I'm sorry you can't understand that but the entire board literally went through just about every angle with Ras already.
I'd argue that 3 years isn't really all that short term, but yeah, that's the point. You can argue that they overpaid to get it, and that's totally fair, but the rotation is better today than it was yesterday and that's probably a good thing when looking at everything.Tyrone Biggums said:If you're talking about getting more certainty at the back end of the rotation in the short term then I see the point. But again why trade two guys who have lesser floors but higher ceilings for Miley who might very well be longing for the NL West after meeting the AL East. Just doesn't make sense to me. Especially if they end up including Rijo.
McCarthy was only in Arizona for 245 innings. Where his FIP and xFIP outperformed his ERA.glennhoffmania said:No, my problem is that his FIP and xFIP weren't better than his ERA over the last three years so his situation isn't the same as McCarthy's.
Their 2014 opening day starter no less. Although that was only after Corbin went down with injury.ngruz25 said:The initial outrage to this trade was a wonderful example of "prospect humping".
Imagine you are an Arizona Diamondbacks fan. You aren't terribly familiar with the Red Sox system. Last night you found out that the team traded a dependable lefty starter that was an All-Star three years ago, selling low on him after his worst year as a professional (by traditional measures). They traded this cheap innings-eater for two projects, both over the age of 25, who are huge question marks, and who project as bullpen arms. Two guys who haven't even been that successful at the AAA level! One of whom has been mostly bombed in the majors.
Do you think you like that trade?
What's your basis for saying that? I don't have a crystal ball but I assume that the Sox are trying to reel in someone of the 1/2 ilk. I understand that Ben has said you don't need an ace (and that there are not many of them), but the Sox have assets to trade and with guys like Cueto, Zimmerman and Hamels potentially available, I would think that they would try. They also could just use dollars on Shields. None of this precludes adding Miley and someone like Masterson (Liriano has been re-signed by the Pirates), also.Drek717 said:Hate to break it to you, but I don't think we're going to land a "#1 or #2 starter". My bet going forward: we get one of Latos, Ross, or Cashner and sign one of Masterson/Liriano/Santana. I would say in roughly that order of probability for each. That ties the FO to no significant dollars long term.
I can't disagree with your point but what is Wade Miley in the AL East? 4th starter? 5th starter? The Sox have a lot of SP depth in the minors and the 5th spot is generally reserved for situations where you'll have prospects fight it out for a rotation spot. As of today the Red Sox have no top of the rotation talent and unless Hamels is on the table or they somehow sign Shields this isn't going to change. Maybe by the end of 2015 or 2016 we will look back and talk about how De La Rosa flamed out or how Webster is awful but I find it likely that it will be treated as a deal we wish that we had back.MakMan44 said:I'd argue that 3 years isn't really all that short term, but yeah, that's the point. You can argue that they overpaid to get it, and that's totally fair, but the rotation is better today than it was yesterday and that's probably a good thing when looking at everything.
Yes and prior to that Miley's ERA was about the same or lower than his FIP and xFIP. All I was saying was that Speier was focusing on one season to make his point instead of looking at his whole body of work. And that just because McCarthy improved after leaving AZ doesn't necessarily mean that Miley will too. I like Miley- I just thought Speier's point was pretty useless.Lowrielicious said:McCarthy was only in Arizona for 245 innings. Where his FIP and xFIP outperformed his ERA.
Miley threw 201 innings in Arizona last year. Era 4.34, FIP 3.98, xFIP 3.50.
glennhoffmania said:Yes and prior to that Miley's ERA was about the same or lower than his FIP and xFIP. All I was saying was that Speier was focusing on one season to make his point instead of looking at his whole body of work. And that just because McCarthy improved after leaving AZ doesn't necessarily mean that Miley will too. I like Miley- I just thought Speier's point was pretty useless.
This doesn't pass the smell test. Esponaza is one of the bonus babies we just spent a ton on this past signing period, I believe. It seems unlikely Boston would entertain trading a 16 year old they just signed for over a million dollars under the new rules, especially since they can't spend more than 300 k a player for the next 2 seasons. Second while I could see the Rijo v Guerrera thing being a choice for the PTNL, there'e a pretty big delta between Basabe and everyone else on that second list. Mars is an interesting sleeper prospect, but Basabe (assuming we're talking about the better of the twins) is very highly regarded.ZMart100 said:I was looking at the azsnakepit.com coverage of this trade (they seem to hate it) and found this in the comments. Take this with a mountain of salt, they guy appears to be a blogger, but it seemed so specific I couldn't completely ignore it.
Of course if Chris Cotillo is right and they plan to announce it on Saturday, it sounds like they found middle ground.
WHile you may be right, I would be very bummed if they traded Rijo. He was the fourth youngest player in the South Atlantic League (Low A) last year at 18 years old. And while he didn't light it up, he definitely held his own.billy ashley said:This doesn't pass the smell test. Esponaza is one of the bonus babies we just spent a ton on this past signing period, I believe. It seems unlikely Boston would entertain trading a 16 year old they just signed for over a million dollars under the new rules, especially since they can't spend more than 300 k a player for the next 2 seasons. Second while I could see the Rijo v Guerrera thing being a choice for the PTNL, there'e a pretty big delta between Basabe and everyone else on that second list. Mars is an interesting sleeper prospect, but Basabe (assuming we're talking about the better of the twins) is very highly regarded.
I could see any of these guys outside of Espinosa being included as the PTNL, but I don't think it's likely the D'Backs would have to think very hard on Basabe V Mars.
Tyrone Biggums said:I can't disagree with your point but what is Wade Miley in the AL East? 4th starter? 5th starter?
Savin Hillbilly said:
Wiley's SIERA last year was 3.67. His FIP- was 104 and his xFIP- was 95.
Let's look at the AL East division winners of the past decade and see how many starters each of those teams had who matched or topped at least two of those three marks, while making at least 20 starts.
BAL 2014: 0
BOS 2013: 1 (Lackey)
NYY 2012: 2 (Sabathia, Kuroda)
NYY 2011: 2 (Sabathia, Colon)
TBR 2010: 2 (Price, Shields)
NYY 2009: 1 (Sabathia)
TBR 2008: 2 (Shields, Kazmir)
BOS 2007: 2 (Beckett, Matsuzaka)
NYY 2006: 3 (Mussina, Wang, Johnson)
NYY 2005: 2 (Mussina, Johnson)
So Miley, by these measures, would have been the third starter on six of the past ten AL East winners, the #2 on two of them, and the ace on last year's. On only one of the ten would he have been a fourth starter.
There's a whole lot of underestimating of Miley going on in this thread, and/or a whole lot of overestimating of a typical contending team's starting rotation.