Sox acquire RHP Anthony Varvaro from Braves for RHP Aaron Kurcz and cash

RedOctober3829

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deep inside Guido territory

Greg29fan

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He has a reverse split through his career
 
RHB hit .262/.327/.709 against him but LHB are at .196/.275/.322
 
It was even more pronounced last year
 
.273/.314/.720 against righties, .149/.198/.481 against lefties
 

curly2

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Varvaro's numbers were very good but the Braves didn't seem to have a ton of confidence in him. The Braves were only 23-38 in games in which he pitched.
 

MakMan44

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Pretty nice get for the Sox. Savin had a nice catch in the BP thread about a decline in his FB velocity in September though. 
 

TheoShmeo

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Darnell's Son

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Cross posted from the BP thread:
MakMan44 said:
I was coming here to post that. 
 
Posted a strong K-BB% last season, which led to a 87 FIP- and a 85 xFIP-
 
I don't know if he'll keep it up next season, but certainly worth taking the chance to find out. Strange that they're just willing to dump him. 
 
 
Savin Hillbilly said:
His velocity kind of cratered in September. Is it possible there's something physically wrong and that's why the Braves are letting him go?
 
 
MakMan44 said:
That's a good catch Savin. I haven't heard anything about an injury, but that would explain why the Braves are getting rid of him. 
 

Corsi

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His K/9 jumped from 5.3 in 2013 to 8.2 in 2014.  
 
Career K/9 of 9.6 in the minors.  That number jumps to 10.2 K/9 since he became a full-time reliever in 2009.
 
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According to Fangraphs, he sits about 93. Throws a fastball, curve, and change.
edit-but according to the Brooks link from Savin above, he hits 95-96 when he's "on".
 

Jnai

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http://www.brooksbaseball.net/landing.php?player=460008
 
 
Pitch Repertoire At-A-Glance
Anthony Varvaro has thrown 2,873 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2009 and 2014, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, Spring Training and Fall/Winter Ball. In 2014, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (93mph) and Curve (81mph), also mixing in a Change (86mph).

BETA Feature:
Basic description of 2014 pitches compared to other RHP:
His fourseam fastball generates a very high amount of groundballs compared to other pitchers' fourseamers and has essentially average velo. His curve is slightly harder than usual and has primarily 12-6 movement. His change is slightly firmer than usual.
 

TheoShmeo

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GaryPeters71 said:
 
Jason Mastrodonato ‏@JMastrodonato  2m2 minutes ago
Don't read into Braves decision to DFA Varvaro -- looks like that was just procedural to open roster spot for FA add Alberto Callaspo.
 
Not shooting you Gary and the comment is not yours, but that makes no sense.  Whether they were opening a spot or not, that the Braves determined that Varvaro was not worth keeping on the 40-man or they wanted to trade him tells us something about how they viewed him.  
 
Maybe they like Kurcz and had this lined up.  Or maybe a lot of things.  But you have to read something beyond creating a roster spot into this.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Greg29fan said:
He has a reverse split through his career
 
RHB hit .262/.327/.709 against him but LHB are at .196/.275/.322
 
It was even more pronounced last year
 
.273/.314/.720 against righties, .149/.198/.481 against lefties
 
I think you mean .262/.327/.382 against righties in his career.
 
A .709 SLG against righties would be a pretty good reason to DFA him!
 

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
 
I think you mean .262/.327/.382 against righties in his career.
 
A .709 SLG against righties would be a pretty good reason to DFA him!
 
yeah, sorry.
 

snowmanny

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MakMan44 said:
Pretty nice get for the Sox. Savin had a nice catch in the BP thread about a decline in his FB velocity in September though. 
Although his September numbers were fine:
5.2IP/2H/1ER/3K/1BB
 

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His September velocity did go down.  But it looks like he was hitting 94 on Aug. 6.  Then his velocity dips down to 91 and climbs over a few appearances until it's at 95 on Aug. 22nd.  Then he's given six days off until Aug 28.  From then to Sept. 28, he makes 7 appearances with his fastball in the low 90s.
 
His 2013 velocity is sort of up and down all over the season, dipping to 92 a number of times.  
 
Maybe it's just a dead arm.   Still, you'd think he'd be higher up the Braves 40 man?
 

67WasBest

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"Varvaro was once a 12th rounder out of St. John's by the Mariners back in 2005"
 
Maybe we finally get some St Johns payoff for Hansen
 
Seems like Hart chose to keep all his kids and felt he was too far away from competing to keep him on the 40 man.  Not reading too much into their choice to deal him.
 
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TheoShmeo said:
Not shooting you Gary and the comment is not yours, but that makes no sense.  Whether they were opening a spot or not, that the Braves determined that Varvaro was not worth keeping on the 40-man or they wanted to trade him tells us something about how they viewed him.  
 
Maybe they like Kurcz and had this lined up.  Or maybe a lot of things.  But you have to read something beyond creating a roster spot into this.
Maybe Occam's razor. The Braves liked the 39 + AC more than Varvaro. And/or they have depth in ML-ready RP. Let's just hope the v's don't change into b's.
Pro: Similar pitchers though 29 show Betancourt and Neshek in the mix
Con: 3.1 innings (TSS = tiny sample size) in Toilet 2.0 and Fenway aren't good. Age - already 30.
 

Max Venerable

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Could just be a way to save cost.  If the Braves scouts think Kurcz can jump into the pen by '16 and be a similarly effective low leverage reliever, the move at least saves them some cash in Vavaro's looming arb seasons.  Kurcz' minor league numbers are somewhat promising, with a high K9 and a not too terrible BB9. 
 
Risks like this are taken all the time at the deadline for non-elite players.  With a 40 Man roster crunch, the Bravos may have been similarly motivated to a deadline type situation.
 
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He went to the same Staten Island HS as Bobby "Shot Heard Around the World"  Thomson.
 
The link from Celtbot says that Fredi stubbornly used him situationally last year, despite the pronounced reverse split for his career.
 

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He really doesn't have to stick either.  I can't find his service time on COTS since he had been DFA'd, but he only made $500k last year.
 

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grimshaw said:
He really doesn't have to stick either.  I can't find his service time on COTS since he had been DFA'd, but he only made $500k last year.
 
BB reference has the info, too: Service Time (01/2015): 2.121, Arb Eligible: 2016, Free Agent: 2019
 

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Greg29fan said:
He has a reverse split through his career
 
RHB hit .262/.327/.709 against him but LHB are at .196/.275/.322
 
It was even more pronounced last year
 
.273/.314/.720 against righties, .149/.198/.481 against lefties
Most of this is BABiP: .222 vs LHB and .311 vs RHB for his career. His FIP and xFIP reveal more normal splits, 3.82 and 4.15 respectively vs LHB, 3.65 and 3.64 vs RHB. 
 

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dylanmarsh said:
 
BB reference has the info, too: Service Time (01/2015): 2.121, Arb Eligible: 2016, Free Agent: 2019
 
And I can only find him being optioned in 2011 and 2012.  So it appears he still has option left if it comes to that. 
 

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vadertime said:
 
And I can only find him being optioned in 2011 and 2012.  So it appears he still has option left if it comes to that. 
 

dylanmarsh said:
The AJC is right. He was added to Seattle's 40 man in offseason after 2009.  He was then optioned for the first time the following spring.  So, that's 3 options used.
 

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edoug said:
After April, Mujica wasn't that bad and he was very good in August and September.
 
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/28501/edward-mujica
 
Mujica's FIP and xFIP by month.

April: 4.58, 4.92
May: 6.23, 3.96
June: 2.80, 2.04
July: 3.42, 3.84
August: 2.34, 4.19
September: 2.82, 3.84
 
Those xFIPs in August and September suggest he was decent, but nothing special and the difference between those numbers and his FIPs in those months suggests he may have been lucky with his HR/FB rate. The only month I'd say he was very good in is June. Of course, relievers have a lot of fluctuations in their performances if you break them down into small samples like we are doing here, so I'm not sure how much you can read into any of this. His overall line for the year was pretty poor, though he obviously had some bad luck in May so he's probably a good bet to be a serviceable middle reliever next year, and may eventually prove adequate as late inning depth.
 

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edoug said:
After April, Mujica wasn't that bad and he was very good in August and September.
 
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/28501/edward-mujica
Mujica was terrible when the games mattered earlier in the year.  
 
Plus I remember a few games where guys hit rockets off him straight at OFers.
 
All I'm really saying is I like Badenhop much better then Mujica, they probably cost about the same.
 

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For better or worse, I think Mujica has some value as potential closer insurance.  Is there anyone else on the roster who could step in as a backup closer in a pinch of Koji is down for a couple of weeks?  Mujica is really the only guy on the team with closer experience.  
 

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benhogan said:
Mujica was terrible when the games mattered earlier in the year.  
 
Plus I remember a few games where guys hit rockets off him straight at OFers.
 
All I'm really saying is I like Badenhop much better then Mujica, they probably cost about the same.
Mujica's location was poor early in the season, partly because of injury, I think. He doesn't have great velocity, so bad location will kill him every time.

Badenhop and Mujica might get similar contracts, but for the Red Sox the cost is not be the same -- Mujica is already under contract, while Badenhop is a free agent. Sunk costs ≠ discretionary purchases.
 

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DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
For better or worse, I think Mujica has some value as potential closer insurance.  Is there anyone else on the roster who could step in as a backup closer in a pinch of Koji is down for a couple of weeks?  Mujica is really the only guy on the team with closer experience.  
 
Tazawa.
 
Closer experience is overrated.  I'm not going to argue that Mujica needs to go, but the fact that he's been a closer shouldn't be a deciding factor one way or the other.
 

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DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
For better or worse, I think Mujica has some value as potential closer insurance.  Is there anyone else on the roster who could step in as a backup closer in a pinch of Koji is down for a couple of weeks?  Mujica is really the only guy on the team with closer experience.  
I'd take any good, successful pitcher over a lousy one with closer experience any day.
 

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flymrfreakjar said:
I'd take any good, successful pitcher over a lousy one with closer experience any day.
I love this move. Varvaro has no business being DFA'ed. He's too good of a pitcher. I would think this clears the way to trade Mujica or Tazawa now. I love Taz but I'm sure you could fetch quite a bit of value on the open market for him while making room for one of the young guys in the pen. Mujica doesn't have a bad contract in comparison to what has been handed out the last few weeks. I think the likelihood of him being moved is fairly high.
 

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This was in a Dave Cameron chat on FanGraphs today:
 
 
 


Comment From Kenny
Anthony Varvavo looks like a decent enough reliever. How come he got DFA’ed?
 





 

Dave Cameron: Because the Braves already had a deal in place for him so they just opened up the roster spot early?
 
 

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Tyrone Biggums said:
I love this move. Varvaro has no business being DFA'ed. He's too good of a pitcher. I would think this clears the way to trade Mujica or Tazawa now. I love Taz but I'm sure you could fetch quite a bit of value on the open market for him while making room for one of the young guys in the pen. Mujica doesn't have a bad contract in comparison to what has been handed out the last few weeks. I think the likelihood of him being moved is fairly high.
I'm more prepared to see either Mujica or Workman go than Tazawa.  Since T is the best of the three he might get the most return - true, but we can use him just fine thank you.
 

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Red(s)HawksFan said:
 
Tazawa.
 
Closer experience is overrated.  I'm not going to argue that Mujica needs to go, but the fact that he's been a closer shouldn't be a deciding factor one way or the other.
 
I agree with this. As far as Mujica, and FWIW, my memory is that he did relatively well in the times he was used as a one-inning/9th inning closer. I know it happened post-koji, but even when he was terriblen early, there were a few times when koji was unavailable, Mujica was the last guy left, we all shat our pants, and he had easy 9ths. Again, FWIW.
 

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Greg29fan said:
He has a reverse split through his career
Here's his location/results from his 4-seam fastball, curve, and change.  Size of the bubble reflects percent of pitches (not counting balls) in each zone; color reflects hit percent in that zone (green is good).
 
Fastball; pretty effective against LHB, some issues with RHB
Curve ditto
Change, not very pretty against either side, worse against LHB
Animations: Fastball
Curve:
Change:
 

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Greg29fan said:
He has a reverse split through his career
 
RHB hit .262/.327/.709 against him but LHB are at .196/.275/.322
 
It was even more pronounced last year
 
.273/.314/.720 against righties, .149/.198/.481 against lefties
 
He's just the right-handed LOOGY we need
 

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iayork said:
Here's his location/results from his 4-seam fastball, curve, and change.  Size of the bubble reflects percent of pitches (not counting balls) in each zone; color reflects hit percent in that zone (green is good).
... 
Change, not very pretty against either side, worse against LHB
This is very odd: how does a RHP without a good changeup handle LHB so well? If it's all BABIP (see williams_482 above), how has Varvaro sustained that pattern over six years in the majors?
 

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Sprowl said:
This is very odd: how does a RHP without a good changeup handle LHB so well?
His fastball high in the zone is impressively effective against LHB.  I wonder if this is a thing where the sum is greater than the parts, with his change and curve down at the bottom of the zone setting up the high strike.  In other words: I have no idea.
 

TomRicardo

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TheoShmeo said:
Not shooting you Gary and the comment is not yours, but that makes no sense.  Whether they were opening a spot or not, that the Braves determined that Varvaro was not worth keeping on the 40-man or they wanted to trade him tells us something about how they viewed him.  
 
Maybe they like Kurcz and had this lined up.  Or maybe a lot of things.  But you have to read something beyond creating a roster spot into this.
 
If they knew they were trading him to the Sox for a minor leaguer within a week, the DFA is just a procedural move.
 
Edit - Kurcz is a pretty nice piece for someone they were going to throw away.  They always could have returned Varvaro back to the roster if something happened to the Kurcz trade within 7 days without exposing him to waivers.  They probably wanted to make sure Kurcz was not picked in the Rule V draft so you DFA Varvaro before the draft.  If Kurcz is picked you can adjust the trade or put Varvaro back on the roster and dump someone else.