Sizemore Sample Sizes Succently Stated

[Plympton91]

The Grady Sizemore watch
2010-2011 with Cleveland (roughly): .220 / .280 / .370
2014 so far with Boston: .208 / .275 / .361
 
As others have mentioned, a series of $250,000 bonuses start kicking in with 60 (90, 120, 150) days on the active roster and 225 plate appearances (and each 25 plate appearances thereafter up to 500).  I would think that his numbers would need to be significantly better over the next month in order to justify paying any those bonuses.  That is especially true given that defensively he's really just a left fielder at this point, and they have no marginal cost of giving those at bats to Carp or Nava.
 
The key other determinant of how long to give Grady to perform at a reasonable offensive level for a left fielder: Daniel Nava at Pawtucket
 
5-15, 2B, HR, 3 BB, 4 K's
 
I don't imagine it will take long for him to amass 50 plate appearances with similar results, at which point it will be silly to leave him in the minors and give left-field at bats to the sub-700 OPS that seems to be Grady's new normal.

 

[Stitch01]

Agree with the logic, but pretty much nothing to second guess yet.  An injury in the next couple of weeks and the discussion is moot.

 

[WenZink]

The Grady Sizemore watch
2010-2011 with Cleveland (roughly): .220 / .280 / .370
2014 so far with Boston: .208 / .275 / .361
 
As others have mentioned, a series of $250,000 bonuses start kicking in with 60 (90, 120, 150) days on the active roster and 225 plate appearances (and each 25 plate appearances thereafter up to 500).  I would think that his numbers would need to be significantly better over the next month in order to justify paying any those bonuses.  That is especially true given that defensively he's really just a left fielder at this point, and they have no marginal cost of giving those at bats to Carp or Nava.
....

 
Since you want to pass judgement on Sizemore after 80 plate appearances this year, let's try...
 
The Jacoby Ellsbury Watch (last 77 PA's - games since April 8th)
 
.262/.299/.390/.689 OPS
 
Maybe the Yankees are interested in trading for Nava?

 

[Plympton91]

 
Since you want to pass judgement on Sizemore after 80 plate appearances this year, let's try...
 
The Jacoby Ellsbury Watch (last 77 PA's - games since April 8th)
 
.262/.299/.390/.689 OPS
 
Maybe the Yankees are interested in trading for Nava?

 
That would be logical if Jacoby Ellsbury had missed the 2012 and 2013 seasons, and totally sucked in the second half of 2009, and all of 2010 and 2011.  Thus, the reason I included not only Sizemore's 2014 stats, but also how similar those stats are to the last time he attempted to play professional baseball on his compromised legs. 
 
And, I said nothing about "passing judgment" yet.  I said he's got to show some significant improvement before they start essentially paying him $8,000 per game and $10,000 per at bat around the end of May.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

I broke this out of the 2nd guesser's club thread.

 

[pokey_reese]

I think that the other point missed in the Ellsbury comp, and comparisons to almost every other ML regular, is that they are sunk costs, while the majority of the financial risk tied to Sizemore can still be prevented by cutting ties with him.  Ellsbury is playing not only because he is likely to improve on his current numbers, but also because they have invested a huge amount in him and need him to provide some value.  Conversely, the Sox have specific incentive to make decisions on Grady faster than normal, because of the escalating payments owed to him.
 
That said, I think that the amount of money he is getting is pretty small, all things considered, and the decision will be purely baseball related for the Sox FO.  I do agree with P91 that the context of evaluating him is different though, and that he doesn't (and shouldn't) get the same benefit of the doubt when it comes to SSS that every other player would, given his unique history.  Of course, you could easily make the opposite argument, and say that given his substantial rust, it's amazing that he has been able to perform even as well as he has.

 

[WenZink]

 
That would be logical if Jacoby Ellsbury had missed the 2012 and 2013 seasons, and totally sucked in the second half of 2009, and all of 2010 and 2011.  Thus, the reason I included not only Sizemore's 2014 stats, but also how similar those stats are to the last time he attempted to play professional baseball on his compromised legs. 
 
And, I said nothing about "passing judgment" yet.  I said he's got to show some significant improvement before they start essentially paying him $8,000 per game and $10,000 per at bat around the end of May.

Going back to 2010/11 makes even less sense.  He's older, yes, but presumably playing with far less pain/impairment.  Sizemore is also getting adapted to travel, game-pre routine, etc.  Using a player's first 80 PA's after 3 years and calling it a "watch" is absurd, and worrying about a $250,000 bonus kicking in, when you wanted the Sox to outbid the Yankees for Ellsbury,  is beyond confusing to me.
 
The really promising development regarding Sizemore is that he's been able to stay on the field.  If there was any suggestion that his body was failing him, the Sox probably would have talked him into taking a couple of weeks off on the DL to recharge... instead they demoted Nava.  Lets see how Sizemore plays over the next couple of months, hopefully in a more functional lineup and in warmer weather.  If, after 80 ABs, he was hitting .308, instead of .208, then we'd be over-hyped but it would still be next to meaningless.

 

[OilCanMDS]

I think there is reason to expect Grady to perform significantly better going forward given his 236 BABIP.  In 2010 and 2011, his BABIPs were 284 and 287.  If his BABIP this season increased to even those levels, his BA/OBP/SLG line would improve significantly, with his average increasing 30 to 40 points.  Assuming his BABIP bounces back to normal levels, his slash line might be similar to his 2009 season (248/343/445), in which he had a fWAR of 1.8 despite having negative defensive value.  Would people be fine with paying out Grady's contract bonuses if he ends up being a 1.8 fWAR player this season?

 

[Corsi]

I don't think any determination on Sizemore is going to come down to finances.  It's going to come down to whether or not there's a viable alternative and what the cost is to acquire said alternative.  Sizemore's contract, at max value, is $6M.  They're not going to blink as as the $250K bonuses tick away, if they don't have someone with whom they can replace him.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Why so you care about John Henry's finances, DH3? Get rid of Sizemore, and we're further down the depth chart. He certainly hasn't been great but there's no point in dumping him just to save a few bucks, which wouldn't likely be relocated.

 
Clearly he's worried about it affecting Liverpool's chances at winning the league.
 
20 games, 80 PAs. To we have to say this in every single thread? It's early yet.

 

[WenZink]

I think there is reason to expect Grady to perform significantly better going forward given his 236 BABIP.  In 2010 and 2011, his BABIPs were 284 and 287.  If his BABIP this season increased to even those levels, his BA/OBP/SLG line would improve significantly, with his average increasing 30 to 40 points.  Assuming his BABIP bounces back to normal levels, his slash line might be similar to his 2009 season (248/343/445), in which he had a fWAR of 1.8 despite having negative defensive value.  Would people be fine with paying out Grady's contract bonuses if he ends up being a 1.8 fWAR player this season?

 
When trying to evaluate Sizemore, one of the pitfalls that most of us fall into, is comparing him to his 2008 version.  After a few weeks of ST, we all had visions of the Sox having a 5-tool stud playing CF for about $7.5 mil.  Then when it starts to look like the 2008 Grady is never coming back, we're ready to call the experiment over.  But there is a middle-ground.  I don't think the Sox ever had realistic expectations of getting back prime-time Sizemore.  But he can be less than that and still be a valuable piece. 

 

[Plympton91]

I think there is reason to expect Grady to perform significantly better going forward given his 236 BABIP.  In 2010 and 2011, his BABIPs were 284 and 287.  If his BABIP this season increased to even those levels, his BA/OBP/SLG line would improve significantly, with his average increasing 30 to 40 points.  Assuming his BABIP bounces back to normal levels, his slash line might be similar to his 2009 season (248/343/445), in which he had a fWAR of 1.8 despite having negative defensive value.  Would people be fine with paying out Grady's contract bonuses if he ends up being a 1.8 fWAR player this season?

 

I don't think any determination on Sizemore is going to come down to finances.  It's going to come down to whether or not there's a viable alternative and what the cost is to acquire said alternative.  Sizemore's contract, at max value, is $6M.  They're not going to blink as as the $250K bonuses tick away, if they don't have someone with whom they can replace him.

 
They have two and maybe three people on the roster who are very likely to outperform even that 2009 line (heavily weighted toward the first half before he started breaking down), on the roster already.  The hope was that he'd be better defensively than Nava, but it's not clear that's true either.
 
I mean, I'd love to have the 2007 Grady Sizemore show up and I'm willing to wait until we're sure Nava is out of whatever funk he was in and we're sure that Grady's defensive foibles aren't curable by taking flyballs for another month, but I don't think any of that is any more likely than having the 2007 Curt Schilling show up.
 
 

 
When trying to evaluate Sizemore, one of the pitfalls that most of us fall into, is comparing him to his 2008 version.  After a few weeks of ST, we all had visions of the Sox having a 5-tool stud playing CF for about $7.5 mil.  Then when it starts to look like the 2008 Grady is never coming back, we're ready to call the experiment over.  But there is a middle-ground.  I don't think the Sox ever had realistic expectations of getting back prime-time Sizemore.  But he can be less than that and still be a valuable piece. 

 
He has to be better than Daniel Nava and Mike Carp.  I'm not seeing it, at all. Frankly, at this point, it's not clear he'd outproduce Gomes against righthanded pitching, or that he's any better than Gomes is defensively.
 
 

 
Clearly he's worried about it affecting Liverpool's chances at winning the league.
 
20 games, 80 PAs. To we have to say this in every single thread? It's early yet.

 
No, 5-1/2 years and 600 plate appearances since he was last a useful major league contributor.
 
That said, maybe the warm weather will help, he did do reasonably well indoors in Toronto and opening day in Baltimore.  Then again, last I checked, it's often cold in October, which is, after all, when at least some of us think the team should be planning for.

 

[Saints Rest]

I wonder how much the colder weather of the start of the season is affecting him.  We know that in general, historically speaking, hitters get better, for a variety of reasons, as the weather warms up.  It would also seem that this might come into play even more notably on a player with a long history of various ailments.  Add in the recent history of how much better Sizemore looked in the warmer games of ST and we might need to consider holding off on an  evaluation until we get into a run of games where players don't need multiple layers to keep warm.
 
Sidenote;  I've often wondered if Napoli has some reverse weather correlation which gives him strong springs and falls (and post-seasons) with weaker summers.  Maybe he runs hotter (hence the half-unbuttoned uni.

 

[mwonow]

 
 
They have two people on the roster who outperformed even that 2009 line (heavily weighted toward the first half before he started breaking down), on the roster already.  The hope was that he'd be better defensively than Nava, but it's not clear that's true either.
 
I mean, I'd love to have the 2007 Grady Sizemore show up and I'm willing to wait until we're sure Nava is out of whatever funk he was in and we're sure that Grady's defensive foibles aren't curable by taking flyballs for another month, but I don't think any of that is any more likely than having the 2007 Curt Schilling show up.
 
 
 
He has to be better than Daniel Nava and Mike Carp.  I'm not seeing it, at all.

 
It takes a "special" kind of poster to use G38 as a comp in a discussion that involves player health.

 

[dbn]

Of course it's too early to call for Sizemore to be DFAed. As I understand it, however, that isn't the intention of this thread. 
 
Considering his somewhat unique situation, I think it is fair to say that if his May is as bad as his April, his ABs need to be going to someone else. Given his roster bonuses (as mentioned above, they are not sunk cost), if he isn't getting ABs, he doesn't need to be on the team.
 
Hence, he warrants a "watch". 

 

[dbn]

To add to my previous post, I'm still hopeful that Sizemore starts to play much better and even if he doesn't, that the experiment was a good decision that just won't have worked out.

 

[WenZink]

He has to be better than Daniel Nava and Mike Carp.  I'm not seeing it, at all. Frankly, at this point, it's not clear he'd outproduce Gomes against righthanded pitching, or that he's any better than Gomes is defensively.

 You have me more than a little confused.  First you post a "Grady Sizemore Watch" with his stats after 80 PAs.  When I call you out on passing judgement after 80 PAs, you tell me that you're not passing judgement.  And when I suggest that we wait and see if Grady can be a better alternative as 4th OF, you pass judgement.
 
What are comparing when we compare Grady to Nava/Carp?  Their 2014 stats?  Carp/Nava in 2013 to Grady 2014 or to Grady 2008?  Are we just looking at just hitting or fielding/base running as well? 
 
Let's wait and see.  And as was suggested by poster Saints Rest, Grady's best months have historically been June/July.

 

[Plympton91]

 You have me more than a little confused.  First you post a "Grady Sizemore Watch" with his stats after 80 PAs. 

 
As well as his stats from the last 2-1/2 years in which he played major league baseball, showing them to be very similar to the stats he put up in 80 plate appearances this season.  But, that's the second time now that you've ignored that added context, so perhaps we should just rename you "Pollyanna."  I'm going to take a wild guess that I have eons more experience with statistical analysis than you do, so save your introductory undergraduate stats lectures about sample sizes.
 

What are comparing when we compare Grady to Nava/Carp?  Their 2014 stats?  Carp/Nava in 2013 to Grady 2014 or to Grady 2008?  Are we just looking at just hitting or fielding/base running as well? 

 
I would think you'd compare your best unbiased estimate of their likely performance over the rest of 2014, taking into account your priors and existing information.  It's called "forecasting" as opposed to "wishcasting."
 

 Let's wait and see.  And as was suggested by poster Saints Rest, Grady's best months have historically been June/July.

 
Wait for what though?  The return of Grady Sizemore circa 2008 appropriately regressed for normal aging and abstracting entirely from any residual limitations of his legs that require specialized care?  That's basically what you'd need to be getting in order for him to represent an improvement over a platoon of Nava/Gomes. 
 
 

Why so you care about John Henry's finances, DH3? Get rid of Sizemore, and we're further down the depth chart. He certainly hasn't been great but there's no point in dumping him just to save a few bucks, which wouldn't likely be relocated.

 
The question is where Sizemore belongs on that depth chart.  If he's not a viable CFer, then it's unclear whether he's even more valuable than Corey Brown.
 
Like I said, I "hope" Sizemore can make it back, but "hope" is not a strategy, and the Red Sox have multiple really good options available to them.  Give him another 2 to 4 weeks, assuming you don't see your team falling further and further behind in the meantime, but that's about it.

 

[Stitch01]

Decision really should have about zero to do with where they are in the standings and everything do with the projections of the players going forward and the desire for injury insurance for about six members of the roster.

 

[KillerBs]

For all those screaming SSS, recall Nava got sent down based on 67 Abs, and he was actually an average to very good big league ball player the last 2 years.
 
I hope/expect that the Sox have decided to give Grady no more than another 4 to 6 weeks to show what he's got left. Around the end of May, they decide who they think is a better LFer, him or Nava, for 2014-2015 with Nava's AAA performance factoring into the equation.  If Grady is still sucking at that stage, and Nava has proven (again) that he can hit, then I presume they will cut bait with Grady and recall Nava. Of course, if Grady raises his game to a level of mediocrity, and Nava scuffles at all in PAW, the decision may be more difficult, and the continued destruction of Nava's major league career (not to mention his trade value) may continue apace.
 
In either event, absent a trade, the Sox still will not have the back up CF/RF that we need, resulting in lots of innings for Gomes/Sizemore/Nava in RF and/or Victorino in CF.

 

[Plympton91]

For all those screaming SSS, recall Nava got sent down based on 67 Abs, and he was actually an average to verty good big league ball player the last 2 years.
 
I hope/expect that the Sox have decided to give Grady no more than another 4 to 6 weeks to show what he's got left. Around the end of May, they decide who they think is a better LFer, him or Nava, for 2014-2015 with Nava's AAA performance factoring into the equation.  If Grady is still sucking at that stage, and Nava has proven (again) that he can hit, then I presume they will cut bait with Grady and recall Nava. Of course, if Grady raises his game to a level of mediocrity, and Nava scuffles at all in PAW, the decision may be more difficult, and the continued destruction of Nava's major league career (not to mention his trade value) may continue apace.
 
In either event, absent a trade, the Sox still will not have the back up CF/RF that we need, resulting in lots of innings for Gomes/Sizemore/Nava in RF and/or Victorino in CF.

 
Very well said.

 

[snowmanny]

Sizemore's numbers aren't very good, but to me he has looked generally OK at the plate and of course it's early so I haven't given up on his hitting.  What has me more concerned is his fielding. He does not look like a viable every day center-fielder, and if he isn't able to play CF then the bar on how well he needs to hit in order to be a useful player goes way up.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

For all those screaming SSS, recall Nava got sent down based on 67 Abs, and he was actually an average to very good big league ball player the last 2 years.

 
 
You're forgetting the most important part of that equation: he had an option left.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

The Grady Sizemore watch
 

 
Forget the numbers and the salary, the most valuable thing that has been given to Grady is the roster spot and the ABs.
 
From what i hear about Farrell, I would suspect that he has a pretty good plan on how much and what games he is going to use Sizemore in May.  But at some point, maybe another month, if he isn't producing and doesn't look like he's producing, he will be holding back someone who could produce more/better.
 
Worst case scenario and if Sizemore doesn't approve - or even gets a bit worse - I wonder how many more ABs he gets.

 

[KillerBs]

 
 
You're forgetting the most important part of that equation: he had an option left.

 
Not forgotten. While taking a wait and see approach, I wasn't a fan of signing Sizemore in the first place, in part because I doubted he was a legit CF/Fenway RF any longer, and he struck me as a redundant distraction as a LF. Once the deal is done, you almost have to give him until June 1 to see what he is. The mistake here, if there turns out to be one, was signing Sizemore in the first place, instead of pulling the trigger on an off-season Nava/Carp deal to get the reserve CF/RF that the Sox need.   

 

[brs3]

first 10 games - 
.343  .395  .571  .966
last 10 games - 
.081  .167  .162  .329
5k's in the first 10 gms, 11k's in the last 10 gms.
 
I'm not ready to say Sizemore isn't going to rebound, but I don't think it's out of the question(as others have mentioned), that if things don't pick up in May, he might force the Red Sox to look elsewhere. 

 

[Reverend]

Nava wasn't hitting and looked terrible at the plate. Having Sizemore around gave them a chance to exercise Nava's option to send him down to AAA to get his head screwed back on at the cost of like a few hundred thousand dollars to the team.
 
I'm having trouble identifying where the problem here is.

 

[Plympton91]

Nava wasn't hitting and looked terrible at the plate. Having Sizemore around gave them a chance to exercise Nava's option to send him down to AAA to get his head screwed back on at the cost of like a few hundred thousand dollars to the team.
 
I'm having trouble identifying where the problem here is.

 
Are there any studies showing that "breaking out of a slump" is any more predictable than the "hot hand" in basketball?  I thought I'd read that they aren't.  In that case, the best guess for when when he would revert to being a BABip-normalized 280 / 360 / 430 hitter was -- the next time he played.  Thus, the problem is that, if you're looking just at "expected value" Nava is very likely to outproduce Sizemore starting right now and continuing for the rest of the season.  But, Sizemore has a fat upper tail in his distribution of outcomes, and so we're living with a likely lesser chance of winning games now for the hope of a larger chance of winning games in the future.   Basically, the Red Sox have suspended some small  systematic investments into a boring mutual fund in order to use the money to buy scratch tickets.  That's generally not considered a good idea. 

 

[glennhoffmania]

Nava wasn't hitting and looked terrible at the plate. Having Sizemore around gave them a chance to exercise Nava's option to send him down to AAA to get his head screwed back on at the cost of like a few hundred thousand dollars to the team.
 
I'm having trouble identifying where the problem here is.

 
Exactly.  Nava wasn't sent down solely based on his stats after less than a month of baseball.  He looked awful, he wasn't playing great OF defense, he looked atrocious at 1B, Victorino was ready, he had an option, and it was the only way to keep all of the OFs in the organization.  Isolating the issue to his slash line is a huge over-simplification.

 

[Reverend]

 
Are there any studies showing that "breaking out of a slump" is any more predictable than the "hot hand" in basketball?  I thought I'd read that they aren't.  In that case, the best guess for when when he would revert to being a BABip-normalized 280 / 360 / 430 hitter was -- the next time he played.  Thus, the problem is that, if you're looking just at "expected value" Nava is very likely to outproduce Sizemore starting right now and continuing for the rest of the season.  But, Sizemore has a fat upper tail in his distribution of outcomes, and so we're living with a likely lesser chance of winning games now for the hope of a larger chance of winning games in the future.   Basically, the Red Sox have suspended some small  systematic investments into a boring mutual fund in order to use the money to buy scratch tickets.  That's generally not considered a good idea. 

 
I agree with the slump stuff and how it's mostly crap that doesn't understand probability (The hot hand studies in basketball are seriously flawed in my opinion, btw, but that's neither here nor there.). But I think Nava also looked really, really bad. Just the way he swung his bat. Or didn't swing. Or sorta poked at the ball or whatever the hell he was doing. For something like that, I'm ok with a reboot--it just looked to me like he was out of his skull.

 

[Quintanariffic]

 
Are there any studies showing that "breaking out of a slump" is any more predictable than the "hot hand" in basketball?  I thought I'd read that they aren't.  In that case, the best guess for when when he would revert to being a BABip-normalized 280 / 360 / 430 hitter was -- the next time he played.  Thus, the problem is that, if you're looking just at "expected value" Nava is very likely to outproduce Sizemore starting right now and continuing for the rest of the season.  But, Sizemore has a fat upper tail in his distribution of outcomes, and so we're living with a likely lesser chance of winning games now for the hope of a larger chance of winning games in the future.   Basically, the Red Sox have suspended some small  systematic investments into a boring mutual fund in order to use the money to buy scratch tickets.  That's generally not considered a good idea. 

 
But if they release a player instead of simply sending down Nava, they completely foreclose the opportunity to wait and see whether that player gets a hot hand at all.  By sending down Nava, they have the ability to evaluate him and Sizemore simultaneously for the next month or so.  What's the realistic expected value of one guy vs the other over that time span?  Could it credibly be as much as a win?  I suspect not.

 

[Plympton91]

 
But if they release a player instead of simply sending down Nava, they completely foreclose the opportunity to wait and see whether that player gets a hot hand at all.  By sending down Nava, they have the ability to evaluate him and Sizemore simultaneously for the next month or so.  What's the realistic expected value of one guy vs the other over that time span?  Could it credibly be as much as a win?  I suspect not.

 
How many different positions do you get to do that for before you start costing yourself wins?  I mean, I'd half expect some people on this Board to claim it doesn't matter if the Red Sox replaced all their regulars for a week with the Pawtucket roster, because sabermetrically that would amount to less than two wins, and we might find someone who otherwise would be overlooked!

 

[ctsoxfan5]

 
Since you want to pass judgement on Sizemore after 80 plate appearances this year, let's try...
 
The Jacoby Ellsbury Watch (last 77 PA's - games since April 8th)
 
.262/.299/.390/.689 OPS
 
Maybe the Yankees are interested in trading for Nava?

 
I don't know why Ellsbury's numbers are relevant here, but even if they are, I don't know where you pulled those numbers from.  
 
According to B-Ref:
 
Since April 8th, he's had 75 PAs: .294/.347/.441/.788 OPS.  
 
Since April 9th, he's had 71 PAs: .266/.324/.406/.730 OPS.

 

[Just a bit outside]

 
How many different positions do you get to do that for before you start costing yourself wins?  I mean, I'd half expect some people on this Board to claim it doesn't matter if the Red Sox replaced all their regulars for a week with the Pawtucket roster, because sabermetrically that would amount to less than two wins, and we might find someone who otherwise would be overlooked!

They are not doing at every position.  This is a decision on one side of a platoon.  If Nava was hitting like he did last year I think there is an argument to get rid of Sizemore.  Unfortunately, Nava has looked completely lost.  You argued his BABIP would normalize but that would only be if he was hitting the ball the same way he did last year.  He has hit nothing hard this year so his BABIP is terrible.  This is not a regression to the mean situation until he starts making harder contact.

 

[joe dokes]

 
How many different positions do you get to do that for before you start costing yourself wins?  I mean, I'd half expect some people on this Board to claim it doesn't matter if the Red Sox replaced all their regulars for a week with the Pawtucket roster, because sabermetrically that would amount to less than two wins, and we might find someone who otherwise would be overlooked!

 
How many different positions have they done it with this year?
 
As long as they remain close in the standings, they can stick with what they've done the last 10 years....April and May is to see what you have; June and July to get what you need; August and September to make it happen.  Sizemore is still in the "let's see what we have" window.   Victorino's injury and Nava's (option + lost-lookingness) made it convenient. But the Sox aren't dumb. If Nava obviously gets his shit together over the next 2 weeks and Sizemore doesn't improve, then they will have a Carp v. Sizemore  decision. (assuming they stay with 12 pitchers).
 
These things usually work themselves out.

 

[Quintanariffic]

They are not doing at every position.  This is a decision on one side of a platoon.  If Nava was hitting like he did last year I think there is an argument to get rid of Sizemore.  Unfortunately, Nava has looked completely lost.  You argued his BABIP would normalize but that would only be if he was hitting the ball the same way he did last year.  He has hit nothing hard this year so his BABIP is terrible.  This is not a regression to the mean situation until he starts making harder contact.

Well said.  No need to resort to slippery slope arguments and strawmen.  This is about one half of a LF platoon and a 25 man roster spot.  Nothing else.

 

[glennhoffmania]

They are not doing at every position.  This is a decision on one side of a platoon.  If Nava was hitting like he did last year I think there is an argument to get rid of Sizemore.  Unfortunately, Nava has looked completely lost.  You argued his BABIP would normalize but that would only be if he was hitting the ball the same way he did last year.  He has hit nothing hard this year so his BABIP is terrible.  This is not a regression to the mean situation until he starts making harder contact.

 
To add to this, Nava's LD% went from 26% last year to 18% this year.  His FB% dipped a little bit and his GB% went up by almost 10%.  So claiming that his BABIP will magically normalize without actually looking at the data is a pretty weak argument.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
To add to this, Nava's LD% went from 26% last year to 18% this year.  His FB% dipped a little bit and his GB% went up by almost 10%.  So claiming that his BABIP will magically normalize without actually looking at the data is a pretty weak argument.

 
According to this FG article, LD% is one of the slowest rate stats to normalize--it takes 600 BIP. Nava has barely had that many BIP in his whole career, let alone the first month of 2014. I think the Sox absolutely made the right decision on Nava vs. Sizemore, mostly because of the option but also because Nava looked more obviously in need of a reboot. But his LD% after three weeks and a total of 50 balls in play probably doesn't tell us much of anything.

 

[Quintanariffic]

 
According to this FG article, LD% is one of the slowest rate stats to normalize--it takes 600 BIP. Nava has barely had that many BIP in his whole career, let alone the first month of 2014. I think the Sox absolutely made the right decision on Nava vs. Sizemore, mostly because of the option but also because Nava looked more obviously in need of a reboot. But his LD% after three weeks and a total of 50 balls in play probably doesn't tell us much of anything.

 
I'm not sure that recommended sample size has an impact on this discussion one way or the other.  Yes, it takes 600 BIP to determine underlying/long-term LD% for a player.  I don't think anyone is saying that Nava's low rate year-to-date establishes some sort of new normal expectation for his LD ability.  Rather, he's not making solid contact, this is born out both visually and in the stats, so allowing him to get back on track while avoiding the loss of a potentially valuable asset seems like the right course of action.  
 
Anyway, I think most of us agree he needed a reboot, and it was probably best not to take chances in real MLB games where he was looking like a black hole every time up.  Now he gets to find his mojo while we get an extra few weeks to evaluate a formerly elite player who hasn't been on the field for 2 years but who is still in his prime from an age perspective.  Not sure what there is to object to here.

 

[glennhoffmania]

Yes, that's what I was saying. I wasn't suggesting that Nava can no longer hit line drives. But he clearly wasn't doing so this year so far so it's not like he was a victim of bad luck. He simply wasn't hitting the ball well.

 

[redsox2020]

Not super interested in the numbers yet.  I'd rather know what the coaches / scouts / etc think of him at this point.

 

[radsoxfan]

I have already stated my general opinion in prior Sizemore and Nava threads, so I won't repeat them all here.  Obviously comparing a poor stretch from Ellsbury (which isn't really that poor), to a bad stretch from Sizemore completely misses the point.  Ellsbury was a great player as recently as last season.  He will likely continue to be, at least in the near future.  Grady Sizemore has sucked or been injured for 5 seasons.  There is a reason that players that were good 6 years ago don't get a long leash.  It's because they are mostly likely toast. 
 
Put another way, if you look at 80 ABs as a "test" of their true value going forward, Ellsbury and Sizemore have a dramatically different "pre-test probability" of success. If you have a high likelihood of success, a small sample going against that expectation really shouldn't change your opinion.  But if you have a high likelihood of failure (which I would argue is the case for someone with two arthritic knees whose skill set was largely based on athleticism), and a small sample that continues to confirm this failure, you are going to start believing that failure will be the ultimate outcome much sooner. 
 
I'll root for Grady to turn it around and become a productive member of the roster.  With Nava's struggles, he is going to get a shot to prove his worth. Sizemore's D has obviously dramatically slipped, but perhaps with more reps he can find his swing to some degree.  It's unlikely, but possible.  Without an obvious better option (unless Nava keeps hitting at AAA) he'll probably get at least a few more weeks.  But any realistic assessment of the situation has to be skeptical of Grady's baseball ability at this point.  You don't give players that are likely finished 600 ABs just because you want to be 100% sure they aren't having an unlucky small sample size stretch.  You get rid of them. 

 

[Plympton91]

Nava went 1-3 today, but with 2 K's; Now 6-18 with 3 BB, 6 K's, 2B, and HR.  1.000 OPS.  I think the K's have to come down before he can be declared fully healed.
 
I agree completely with radsoxfan's analysis.  There's almost rational reason to be "hopeful" about Grady Sizemore, this experiment is a complete low probability shot in the dark.  The longer they go with it without getting success, the more likely it is that the marginal game they lose will be a game that ends up mattering when everything is tallied at the end of the season.  If they'd won one or two more games in April of 2011, maybe Bobby Valentine never happens.

The other positions where they were sacrificing wins now in the hope of adding wins later were in their offseason decisions about SS and CF and arguably the decision not to call up Cecchini when Middlebrooks was out.

 

[Stitch01]

What do you think the cost of Nava over Sizemore for a month is?  What is the chance that Sizemore returns to a facsimile of his former form?  What are the chances that someone gets hurt (particularly Bradley or Victorino) and Sizemore and Nava both end up having to play more and what is Sizemore's value above whoever that replacement would be?  I think at this point there's a lot of angst and debate over what is currently a super, super marginal decision?
 
Probably a topic for another thread, and obviously 100% hindsight driven, but would you reverse the '11 collapse if you could go back in time and do so?  Id say pretty clearly no.

 

[Plympton91]

I'd put the likelihood of Sizemore putting up a 780 or higher OPS at less than 20 percent, and Nava exceeding that number at 67 percent. I'd put the likelihood of Sizemore putting up an OPS below 720 at 50 percent, and the likelihood of Nava doing so at less than 10 percent. I think they're equal on defense right now, but Sizemore can't play 1B.

Given that Sizemore isn't a CF, or any more of a RF in Fenway than Nava, I think his value as depth is small. If they need a corner outfielder, They can use Gomes full time, they can call up Hassan, or they can scour the waiver wire for a replacement. If they need a CF then they're going to have to make a trade unless they like Corey Brown.

 

[ScubaSteveAvery]

I'd put the likelihood of Sizemore putting up a 780 or higher OPS at less than 20 percent, and Nava exceeding that number at 67 percent. I'd put the likelihood of Sizemore putting up an OPS below 720 at 50 percent, and the likelihood of Nava doing so at less than 10 percent. I think they're equal on defense right now, but Sizemore can't play 1B.

Given that Sizemore isn't a CF, or any more of a RF in Fenway than Nava, I think his value as depth is small. If they need a corner outfielder, They can use Gomes full time, they can call up Hassan, or they can scour the waiver wire for a replacement. If they need a CF then they're going to have to make a trade unless they like Corey Brown.

 
Do you have actual math for that? Or is this just what you feel tonight? 

 

[Plympton91]

That's pretty much what PECOTA says about Sizemore, copied from an article on overthemonster that came as the top of a yahoo search for Sizemore 2014 projections.

The other thing about PECOTA is that it has percentile forecasts -- the line above is just the most-likely, average outcome for Sizemore. PECOTA sees much darker futures for Sizemore possible: at the 30th percentile, he's barely better than a replacement-level hitter, and at the 10th, he looks like someone who is going to be forced into early retirement. On the other side, though, PECOTA envisions a productive Sizemore: at the 70th percentile, he's at a .254/.334/.432 line and .274 TAv, while at the 90th -- the most optimistic -- he's all the way up at .280/.364/.478, good for a .299 TAv, a figure that would fit in well with his healthy peak years.

The ZIPS and STEAMER mean projections are sub - 700.

For Nava, the only one I found quickly was Bill James, which has a mean projection of .377 / .435. I imagine others aren't too different.

 

[Stitch01]

I'd put the likelihood of Sizemore putting up a 780 or higher OPS at less than 20 percent, and Nava exceeding that number at 67 percent. I'd put the likelihood of Sizemore putting up an OPS below 720 at 50 percent, and the likelihood of Nava doing so at less than 10 percent. I think they're equal on defense right now, but Sizemore can't play 1B.
Given that Sizemore isn't a CF, or any more of a RF in Fenway than Nava, I think his value as depth is small. If they need a corner outfielder, They can use Gomes full time, they can call up Hassan, or they can scour the waiver wire for a replacement. If they need a CF then they're going to have to make a trade unless they like Corey Brown.

Well that's the rub, if you think Sizemore has zero value in CF or RF then he doesn't have much value.

 

[lexrageorge]

While PECOTA is useful, it does have limitations that even the founder noted.  I can't imagine the Red Sox deciding to sacrifice outfield depth in April based solely on some 3rd party projections on two platoon players.  
 
Sizemore and Carp are on the roster to provide depth and flexibility while there are still several months remaining.  It's highly unlikely that the team will miss the playoffs because they used Sizemore instead of Nava for the next 3 weeks or so.  And that's probably the amount of time that the team will keep both on the roster, barring injury or Nava's suddenly developing an inability to hit AAA pitching.  There's no need to over think this.    
 
I don't want to see Sizemore playing every game in CF or RF; however, he could do it in a pinch, and at this point in the season that is all they need.  Finding OF depth at the trading deadline shouldn't be a big issue for the team if the Sizemore experiment fails to pan out, or if there is an injury to one of the regulars.  There's not a team in the league that doesn't have holes.  

 

[ScubaSteveAvery]

That's pretty much what PECOTA says about Sizemore, copied from an article on overthemonster that came as the top of a yahoo search for Sizemore 2014 projections.

The other thing about PECOTA is that it has percentile forecasts -- the line above is just the most-likely, average outcome for Sizemore. PECOTA sees much darker futures for Sizemore possible: at the 30th percentile, he's barely better than a replacement-level hitter, and at the 10th, he looks like someone who is going to be forced into early retirement. On the other side, though, PECOTA envisions a productive Sizemore: at the 70th percentile, he's at a .254/.334/.432 line and .274 TAv, while at the 90th -- the most optimistic -- he's all the way up at .280/.364/.478, good for a .299 TAv, a figure that would fit in well with his healthy peak years.

The ZIPS and STEAMER mean projections are sub - 700.

For Nava, the only one I found quickly was Bill James, which has a mean projection of .377 / .435. I imagine others aren't too different.

 
I didn't realize you were Nate Silver. 
 
PECOTA has them as relatively similar players: Nava with better on-base skills and Sizemore with more power. 
 
Their PECOTa weighted mean is:
 
Nava: .262/.352/.391
Sizemore: .241/.318/.408
 
At the 50th Percentile:
 
Nava: .261/.351/.390
Sizemore: .236/.313/.401
 
70th Percentile
 
Nava: .275/.367/.411
Sizemore: .254/.334/.432
 
30th Percentile
 
Nava: .247/.334/.369
Sizemore: .219/.292/.371
 
BP's Upside metric created by Silver, defined as: 
 

UPSIDE is determined by evaluating the performance of a player's top-20 PECOTA comparables. If a comparable player turned in a performance better than league average, including both his batting and fielding performance, then his WARP values is counted toward his UPSIDE. If the player was worse than zero WARP, or he dropped out of the database, the performance is counted as zero.
 

 
has Sizemore at a projected 60.2% for 2014 and only 21.2% for Daniel Nava. 
 
So by using PECOTA, I'm curious how you arrive at your claim of: "I'd put the likelihood of Sizemore putting up a 780 or higher OPS at less than 20 percent, and Nava exceeding that number at 67 percent. I'd put the likelihood of Sizemore putting up an OPS below 720 at 50 percent, and the likelihood of Nava doing so at less than 10 percent."
 
​Looking at the ZIPS update:
 
Nava: .229/.318/.354
Sizemore: .218/.283/.372
 
Again, less on base skills for Sizemore, but more power. 
 
Looking at the Steamer Update:
 
Nava: .227/.313/.358
Sizemore: .236/.298/.392
 
Both players are projected at sub .700 OPS players.  Could you please explain why you project Nava so much higher in light of the other projection systems showing Nava as a slightly better player due to better on base skills?