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Sixers thread: now with expectations

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by LondonSox, May 30, 2018.

  1. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    Jaylen Brown as the only major piece for Simmons? Really??

    I'm frustrated with Simmons, but he's still very very good as he is. There's just so so much more potential.
     
  2. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    The optics of the deal are really bad for Philly. Trading Simmons also kills the huge advantage he gives the Sixers in terms of being able to slot in almost anyone at the wing.

    Posted in the Sac/MEM thread, but I like Otto Porter a lot for Philly, and they could likely get him for a Fultz+low 1st rounder package.
     
  3. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    This is ridiculous. It's not that the optics are bad on that deal; it's just a terrible deal. And I'm pretty down on Simmons long-term.
     
  4. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    They are 7-2 since the trade, how sure are we that Simmons doesn't work well with Butler and Embiid? They seem to be fine. In those 9 games, Simmons is at 16.1 points. 8.3 assists, 7.2 rebounds per shooting 58.8%.
     
  5. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    apologies, it was dripping (like cheese whiz down a sleeve) with sarcasm...Philly wouldn't do that deal in a million years. Embiid/Simmons/Butler is fine and they certainly aren't calling the Celtics to take our two most underperforming players this season.

    and the wires on the Celtic hotline have been snipped...
     
    #255 benhogan, Dec 1, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2018
  6. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Agreed with you and others that a Simmons deal for a guy losing rotation minutes in his 3rd year is a terrible deal.

    I disagree that a Porter deal fits in a Philly trade for a number of reasons. One, the Wizards can surely acquire expiring deals as part of a package without being burdened with Fultz' $9.4m next season on the books. Another is that Philly would have to include more contracts with the only financially logical one being Wilson Chandler, which they aren't likely going to move......or moving multiple bench players which isn't likely for a team already thin on depth. I don't see the match here.
     
  7. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, I was thinking of the space the Sixers will have next summer, forgetting that they're over the cap with guys under contract, so no Porter deal works at all really.
     
  8. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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  9. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Embiid isn’t a FA until 2023 so he’s locked in. I do wonder what Simmons’ thoughts are since he’s effectively been downgraded to the 3rd star role. Probably the best fit for him given his shooting issues but we’ll see if his ego can handle it.
     
  10. ManicCompression

    ManicCompression lurker

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    Knowing what they know now, do you think the sixers regret their draft day trade of Mikal Bridges for Zaire Smith and the Miami ‘21 pick? They need a wing who can play D and can shoot, which Bridges has shown he can do on a pretty good level as a rookie.

    The timing of the Colangelo firing really screwed them. They went into the draft thinking they needed to collect assets for the future, but now they’re a win now team and sorely in need of good, complementary, two way players. Now they just have an injured rookie (who probably wasn’t going to contribute anyway) and an asset that they probably won’t get fair value for.
     
  11. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Miami's path going forward looks brutal. That 2021 pick has really high upside, and was a surprisingly forward-thinking trade for a team that had been getting too short-term-focused.
     
  12. ManicCompression

    ManicCompression lurker

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    As we’ve seen with the Sac pick, it’s hard to forecast that far out. I wouldn’t place a huge bet on Riley and Spoelstra letting that team stray too far away from .500 (plus Miami will always be a FA destination). So if that pick is the sixth or eight or tenth pick in 2021, was that really worth it?
     
  13. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Riley and Spoelstra have been trying their best, and things in Miami are getting worse with no clear way to get better. As far as free agents: they haven't landed a big free agent since 2010 (with no shortage of trying), which basically falsifies the "Miami as a free-agent destination" trope.

    At the end of the day, if the Sixers had Zaire Smith anywhere close to Bridges in their evaluations, the trade should have been a no-brainer.
     
  14. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Mikal Bridges is shooting 32% from three, and PHO has been a disaster defensively this year. I am unsure how many minutes and how much help he would be. Even with the injury year, I would take the extra first round pick
     
  15. ManicCompression

    ManicCompression lurker

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    With bridges on the floor, they’re a dramatically better team. His % will go up as he gets used to the nba game. At the very least, he takes threes and forces defenses to cover him on the arc while not being a complete turnstile on d, like shamet.

    Not saying it’s an easy choice, but I don’t know if they’d make that deal if they knew they’d be trading for butler. Their near term goals are totally different now and the cost of having two undefined assets like smith and the Miami pick instead of a real player may have consequences for a contending team.
     
  16. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    A cynical person would say Embiid is just another young player unhappy playing alongside Jimmy Butler.
     
  17. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    Except he explicitly days he's happy about the Butler trade and it's his own PLAY he's been unhappy with. Fwiw he hasn't been used differently, same number of post possessions and same number of outside shots. Like 0.1-0.2 difference in each per game.

    This is explicitly terrible coverage, and embiid is out saying he's pissed off about it.

    They said they had basically the same grade on bridges as zhaire and it's a no brainier trade. You can't plan for an allergic reaction to seseame at 19. And yes clearly they need a wing BUT xhaires defensive strengths actually fit a lot better than mikal. Mikal is rookie Covington. Great off ball, flawed on it, prone to switching off occasionally. Similar shooters.

    Zhaire can switch 1-4 and fills a GLARING need for a point of attack defender.

    Injury aside, take the pick and the upside. I haven't seen a young raw althete like zhaire show defensive chops and bbiq like him in a long time. I feel like so many raw jump out of the gym guys are morons on how to play.

    Honestly they could really use either of them today. But adding a non shooter to some lineups... Eek
     
  18. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    Miami’s books will be mostly clear by then. Wouldn’t expect huge upside from it but you never know.
     
  19. terrynever

    terrynever Member SoSH Member

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    The first Embiid story came from an interview before Friday’s game. After seeing his remarks online, Embiid called the beat writer, Keith Pompey, back today to clarify what he said. Pompey concludes in this followup article that this is Brett Brown’s problem to solve. Embiid is signed for four year years but Butler is quite obviously a FA at the end of the season. Their is no animosity between the two players. This is what can happen when you make a big trade 20 games into the season.

    http://www2.philly.com/sports/joel-...ers-ers-brett-brown-ben-simmons-20181209.html
     
  20. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    Pompey is utter trash btw

    I have no idea why the media is trying so hard with these stories about personality clashes while all of them are saying they are having a great time!
     
  21. terrynever

    terrynever Member SoSH Member

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    Pompey is not an incisive reporter but he is a beat guy who sees every game. I’m guessing he is the only beat reporter who covered that road game in Detroit on Friday night. He stumbled into that interview. I doubt he was trying to stir anything up. That is not his nature. Pompey too often buys the company line, which is my main complaint with the guy.
    Embiid is the one who stirred things up. He was pissed because Brown rested him on a rare night when his father had come to see him play. So he took it out on his coach by complaining to the nearest familiar face. He used Pompey to get his message across.
    In this instance, don’t blame the reporter. And if you are going to dismiss a guy as trash, at least tell us why you think that.
     
    #271 terrynever, Dec 9, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2018
  22. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    It's a pretty benign article. Embiid is just a bit frustrated as BB figures out a way to incorporate Butler w/out clogging the lane. Even mentions Embiid calling the reporter back to clear things up.

    If Philly adds 2 shooters (like last season), they'll be a force.
     
  23. terrynever

    terrynever Member SoSH Member

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    This is closer to the truth. The uproar usually comes from talk radio, cable sports shows and social media. Talking heads point to the originating article and blow it out of proportion. Then the coach tries to tamp out the embers.
    Embiid is no fool. Like a lot of modern athletes, he controls his message, not only through social media, but with deft manipulation of reporters. My hunch is Pompey was the only Philly beat writer covering that game. The Athletic seems to have been covering from home, otherwise they might have written their own story by now. The suburban newspapers do not budget for road trips beyond D.C.
     
  24. saintnick912

    saintnick912 GINO! Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Given how much Embiid is in Drummond's head, I was surprised they would rest him against Detroit.
     
  25. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    EDIT: Found it
     
  26. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    They play again tomorrow. He needed a rest and this gives him a week rest for one game
     
  27. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Ben Simmons shot distribution:

    <5 ft: 150-224 (67%)
    5-9 ft: 24-57 (42%)
    10-14 ft: 3-18 (16.7%)
    15-19 ft: 0-7 (0.0%)
    20+ ft: 0-0

    Forget about 3 PT shots, he's not even comfortable taking elbow jumpers. At what point does this become a story?
     
  28. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Never? Teams don’t even want their good shooters taking mid-range shots.....why would they ever want an awful shooter taking mid-range shots?
     
  29. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    He probably needs to extend his range to 10-16 ft before he can expand it to the 3 point line.
     
  30. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    I actually think the opposite. There is no reason for a player with his skillset off the dribble to take a mid-range shot except for rare exceptions. We've seen him many times able to pull up for a clean mid-range look but instead choose the better alternative (for him anyway) of utilizing his dribble for a floater in the paint or a layup at the rim. If I'm Simmons I love being unguarded when I have the ball at the top of the key as my vision is never impaired by pressure defense. I don't see this as the same disadvantage many do...….since he also initiates from the low post and elbow this lack of defensive pressure actually makes the game easier for him.

    I'd prefer him work at his craft like Bruce Bowen did after he left Boston and become a decent/good 3-point spot up shooter rather than worrying about elbow jumpers.
     
  31. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Because at some point he may need to drill one in a game that matters. I'm not advocating that it should be a regular part of their offense but even Rondo would hit open jumpers every now and then out of necessity.
     
  32. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Rondo has actually turned himself into a solid 3-point shooter (190 - 528 for 36%) since leaving Boston while rarely touching the mid-range game. This is actually the type of growth I'd like to see out of Simmons but keep in mind that this didn't become a reliable part of Rondo's game until he hit age 28-29...…..Simmons is 22.
     
  33. cheech13

    cheech13 Member SoSH Member

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    It's been a story since the NBA Draft. Everyone knows Simmons can't shoot. Kevin O'Connor has had a running meme since the draft that he isn't even shooting with the correct hand. But, I'm also not sure it matters much because he's shown with his existing skillset that he can be a top 20, maybe even top 10 player. Learning to shoot would be nice and certainly give Philly more options in their team-building, but it's kind of picking nits with a player of his caliber.
     
  34. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Yup. Still plenty of time but I'm mostly speaking from a ceiling standpoint. Kind of like with the Freak, if that shot ever comes...good night. This version of Simmons is a hell of a player. This Simmons plus some incremental shooting improvement becomes a force of nature and top 3 player in the league.
     
  35. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    This is last year for Simmons, but I do love seeing some of these ridiculous looking shot charts

    [​IMG]
     
  36. Cellar-Door

    Cellar-Door Member SoSH Member

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    Not sure where you got this idea. Last season was the first time Rondo took more shots from 3 than from midrange(10+). His 3pt shooting got better, and he converted some midrange to 3s, but he was still taking more midrange shots than 3s until his age 31 season. When he was with Boston one of his positives is that he graded out as an excellent shooter from midrange which forced more players to play up when he went around a pick or got it at the elbow
     
  37. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    The problem is that tons of guys in the NBA would shoot 55%+ on 17 footers if they were given the space that Simmons is given inside the arc. There's an equilibrium the NBA is reaching where guys don't take 17 footers, but their defenders also sort of defend them there, because otherwise the math gets bad for the defense again. Simmons doesn't force even that modest pressure, which hurts spacing.
     
  38. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Yes but it HELPS his creativity as he’s able to get wherever he wants in the offensive set without any defensive pressure. It actually plays into his hands.
     
  39. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    The thought that his ability to not shoot makes him a better basketball player is hilarious to even contemplate
     
  40. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    I’m sorry you feel this way. It wouldn’t if defenses understood that by not defending him they are allowing him to dominate many offensive sets.
     
  41. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    I get that. But if he could shoot, he is Lebron James level good. He can't, so he is only Ben Simmons level good
     
  42. Jimbodandy

    Jimbodandy Member SoSH Member

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    This is a fascinating take and I'm inclined to agree with you.

    Clearly covering him at 17' makes it easier for him to get to the rim, and laying off him greatly reduces his ability to score at all. But laying off him does play to his greatest strength--his court vision and passing.
     
  43. amarshal2

    amarshal2 Member SoSH Member

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    This is the correct answer. Being able to shoot would open up more for him and his team than allowing his defender to clog the lane/play off. This isn’t even arguable. There’s a correct answer here. Stop overthinking the obvious.
     
  44. ManicCompression

    ManicCompression lurker

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    The idea of him “developing a shot” from three point range seems incredibly unlikely at this point. He’s not starting from even a Marcus Smart level of shooting. Marcus was/is a bad shooter. Simmons doesn’t even bother to, so we have to assume he’s worse than that. The baseline being 20% is a much different story than the baseline being 0%.

    This seems fairly unprecedented for a high usage, perimeter oriented player who has the ball in his hands so much. Obviously you have to wonder when he’ll add it to his game if it wasn’t something he could improve after his foot injury.
     
  45. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    I mean he regularly shoots 3s in warm ups and it doesn't look terrible. This piss take video is funny and shows his shot



    I actually agree with this, he should be taking a bad shot when he's creating more value by not. Once he can take a longer shot (a 3) maybe that blue proposition changes.

    If everyone is going to step off him and it helps his game why make them step up. He struggled more in the playoffs when Celtics stepped up to him. Fitting with HRB view.

    He's been working on his shot, his FT is improving (slowly)

    I think HRB might be right here he's not going to shoot that mid range until he's scoring as well with it as his other options.
     
  46. amarshal2

    amarshal2 Member SoSH Member

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    Taking this a step further. The argument that “Simmons is better without a shot” is so ludicrous that those defending it are not actually defending it. At best their argument is “coaches are defending him poorly by playing off instead of in his face.” That may be true sometimes. But the idea that a complete inability to get the ball into the hoop from outside 3 feet is a strength is a bad argument.
     
  47. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    You’re missing my point. This isn’t a Rondo situation or guys like Doug Gottlieb or Abdul Abdullah in college where teams pack their defender inside the foul line extended. Those players didn’t possess the skill set to exploit defenders playing off them at 15 feet...........The reason why Simmons DOESN’T need to ever take an open 15-footer is that if he is unguarded in the mid-range is is so explosive off the dribble that he is going to slice his way through the soft defense for an easy shot inside 5 feet or draw defenders with one dribble and a pass for an easy shot. He’s lethal in this area which differentiates himself from nearly all PGs in the league.

    Simmons will have a 3-point shot in due time. He’s still a kid finding himself around the league and has plenty of time to do what other atrocious face up shooters like Bowen, Rondo and a host of others have done. Once he establishes this then he will be MORE dominant.......but again. he doesn’t need to ever take an open 15-footer with his skill set able to exploit soft defenses against him.
     
  48. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    Most NBA defenders will go below the pick on Simmons. That's where his lack of a jump shot hurts him. He's great at getting to the rim, but not quite so great against defenses that are ready for it.
     
  49. amarshal2

    amarshal2 Member SoSH Member

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    Imagine Simmons was faced with a tough defensive matchup that made it difficult for him to get to the rim. We’ll call this dream defensive player Partialus Ohjaylay. Now your argument is that it would be worse if Simmons could stop and pop at a high rate from 8-10 feet from the basket with efficiency to help keep Partialus honest or find other ways to score efficiently. Partialus makes him more creative helping him score 2 points in a playoff game and being benched for TJ McDonald

    That’s not credible.

    You’re a good poster when you’re not doubling down on some random opinion you’ve backed yourself into a corner defending.
     
    #299 amarshal2, Dec 15, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2018
  50. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

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    Oh, for Christ’s sake. Can we stop it with acting like Stevens and Ojeleye created the magical Jordan Rules in defending Simmons because a rookie had one bad playoff game? He averaged 18 points over the next three games, like he did in the six playoff games prior. Along with like 9 and 9.

    It’s not actually that silly of an idea that defenses help Simmons by laying off of him. What data do you have that proves the optimal way to defend a non-shooter in all instances is to lay several feet off him? Frankly, it seems pretty obvious that it’s extremely player specific, both offensively and defensively.

    The conventional justification for laying off a non-shooter would seem to be (1) enticing him to take a shot beyond his range, thus encouraging a below EV possession; and (2) making it easier to defend his non-shooting options (ie, driving, passing); 2(b) allows you to double/shade another player(s).

    But when the non-shooter is not going to be baited into taking those non-efficient shots, reason (1) does not exist, and when dealing with a size/speed/athletic freak with elite court vision, (2) may not work, because it allows him to get a head of steam before powering in for a dunk or a dump off for an easy basket. All of which is to say, it seems perfectly reasonable that teams may do themselves a disservice by automatically giving Simmons space because he doesn’t shoot from outside. And that would be a lucky by-product for the Sixers of that reluctance to shoot.
     

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